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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA and NHL Previews and Odds - 11/03/2023

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Nov 03, 2023

The Thursday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, and NHL action.The tenth week in NCAAF college football continues with two games on national television between FBS opponents. Syracuse hosts Boston College on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM ET. The Orange are on a four-game losing streak after their 38-10 loss at Virginia Tech as a 2.5-point underdog on Thursday. The Eagles are on a four-game winning streak after their 21-14 win against Connecticut as a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday. Syracuse is a 3-point favorite, with the total set at 51 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).The Wyoming Cowboys play at home against Colorado State on the CBS Sports Network at 8 PM ET. The Cowboys are on a two-game losing streak after their 32-7 loss at Boise State as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. The Rams lost for the third time in their last four games with a 30-13 loss to Air Force as a 14.5-point underdog on Saturday. Wyoming is a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 42. The National Basketball Association tips off the In-Season Tournament with its first Tournament Night with seven games on its docket. The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Indiana to play the Pacers at 7:10 PM ET. The Cavaliers ended a three-game losing streak with their 95-89 upset victory at New York as a 6-point underdog on Wednesday. The Pacers are on a two-game losing streak after their 155-104 loss at Boston as a 13-point underdog on Wednesday. Cleveland is a 4.5-point road favorite at BetMGM with a total of 222.5.The Milwaukee Bucks are at home against the New York Knicks on ESPN at 7:40 PM ET. The Bucks lost for the second time in their last three games after a 130-111 upset loss at Toronto as a 4.5-point favorite on Wednesday. The Knicks lost for the second time in their last three games in their loss to Cleveland on Wednesday. Milwaukee is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 228. Three NBA games tip off at 8:10 PM ET. The Miami Heat host the Washington Wizards. The Heat have lost four games in a row after their 109-105 loss to Brooklyn as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Wizards are on a two-game losing streak after a 109-105 loss at Atlanta on Wednesday. Miami is a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 226.5. The Chicago Bulls play at home against the Brooklyn Nets. The Bulls lost for the second time in their last three games with their 114-105 loss at Dallas as a 3.5-point underdog on Wednesday. The Nets are on a two-game winning streak after beating the Heat on Wednesday. Chicago is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 220. The Golden State Warriors visit Oklahoma City. The Warriors won their fourth straight game with a 102-101 victory against Sacramento as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. The Thunder lost for the second time in their last three games with a 110-106 upset loss to New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Golden State is a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 229. Two games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 PM ET. The Denver Nuggets are at home against the Dallas Mavericks on ESPN. The Nuggets had won their first four games of the season before a 110-89 upset loss at Minnesota on Wednesday. The Mavericks have won their first four games of the season after their victory against the Bulls on Wednesday. Denver is a 7.5-point favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 227.5. The Memphis Grizzlies play in Portland against the Trail Blazers. The Grizzlies remain winless in their last five games after a 133-109 loss at Utah as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. The Trail Blazers are on a two-game winning streak with a 110-101 upset win at Detroit as a 3-point underdog on Wednesday. Memphis is a 2-point road favorite with a total of 218. The National Hockey League has two games on its slate. The Buffalo Sabres host the Philadelphia Flyers at 7:07 PM ET as a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The New Jersey Devils are in St. Louis to play the Blues at 8:07 PM ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. 

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NCAA Football Top 10 Poll - Week 10

by Wayne Root

Thursday, Nov 02, 2023

By Wayne Allyn Root The Top 5 teams have moved around this week as the teams move into conference play. The lines will be tightened up as will the performances of the Coaches and players.   1. Ohio St The Ohio State Buckeyes are the best team in college football. Entering Week 9, the Buckeyes had the highest Football Power Index in the nation, putting them over Michigan and Georgia by a fairly significant margin. The Buckeyes avoided a hangover one week after beating Penn State, winning at Wisconsin by two touchdowns. Plus, the Buckeyes’ offense has been producing through injuries to key players. Quarterback Kyle McCord wasn’t great, although wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. was. And the Ohio State defense was once again tremendous, which has been the case all year. Victories over Notre Dame – on the road – and against Penn State further demonstrate why Ohio State has earned the No. 1 spot in our college football rankings for the last three weeks. 2. Michigan I dropped Michigan from the No. 1 spot because of their popcorn schedule. It’s totally embarrassing. The Michigan Wolverines don’t have a win over a ranked opponent this season, but they are continuing to dominate in the midst of the biggest scandal in college football this season. Fortunately for Jim Harbaugh and J.J. McCarthy, they can cross off that last remaining hole on their resume in Week 11 with a victory against Penn State. Next week, the Wolverines play Purdue before taking a fascinating road trip to Penn State. While the Nittany Lions are at home, we’ll always bet on Harbaugh and McCarthy against a James Franklin-coached team. 3. Georgia The Georgia Bulldogs aren’t the same without Brock Bowers, but Kirby Smart and Co. have proven countless times they can overcome injury. Life without tight end Brock Bowers started off on the right foot. Georgia clobbered Florida 43-20, moving to 8-0. On Saturday, Georgia’s offense did just that. Carson Beck racked up over 300 yards through the air, with Ladd McConkey stepping up for a huge performance. Between that and a strong ground game with a defense still playing at a high level, Georgia has equaled Michigan in our eyes when comparing the top teams in the nation. The Bulldogs enter a fascinating stretch of games, starting with a home matchup against Missouri. The following week, Georgia plays Ole Miss before taking a road trip to Tennessee. 4. Washington   For the second week, Washington struggled mightily against lesser competition. This is it for the Washington Huskies. Led by Michael Penix Jr., head coach Kalen DeBoer’s program has won 15 consecutive games since October 15, 2023. It’s been all thanks to one of the best offenses in college football over the last two years. Penix remains a frontrunner according to the latest Heisman odds. The Huskies are unbeaten, although the signs are concerning. Now, the Huskies head into their most challenging stretch with matchups against the USC Trojans, Utah Utes and Oregon State Beavers. 5. Florida St Florida State made quick work of Wake Forest, cruising to a 41-16 win. The Florida State Seminoles offense put on a clinic this Saturday against Wake Forest. Travis, one of the leading Heisman candidates, had one of his best performances through the air in 2023 with Trey Benson and Keon Coleman coming through with big performances. Plus, the Seminoles’ defense played well. For the Seminoles, everything is still in front of them. They’ll play at Pittsburgh next, and they’ll be a favorite in every remaining game. With two quality wins on the year already, Florida State can now go for style points as it controls its destiny in the CFP race. 6. Alabama   Nick Saban has had much better teams, but this one has heart and spunk. The bye week came at the perfect time for the Alabama Crimson Tide, providing a banged-up team with much-needed rest. Plus, Alabama’s offense showed a lot more life in its Week 8 victory over Tennessee and that second-half performance provided a lot to build from. LSU’s high-power offense is coming to town, and the environment promises to be one of the best we get all season. This is a yearly ritual and a massive football game all at once. As long as the Crimson Tide’s offensive line holds up against LSU’s pass rush, the Crimson Tide should roll to victory in Week 10. 7. Oregon The Oregon Ducks needed a signature win on Saturday to sustain any slim hope of sneaking into the CFP picture. The Ducks traveled to Utah, and they responded with an emphatic win that showcased their talent and depth on both sides of the ball. In a tough spot on the road against the Utah Utes, the Ducks came through in emphatic fashion thanks to Bo Nix. With Texas missing Quinn Ewers, the Ducks move up a few spots. There are meaningful games still to come, but there’s only one road game remaining. This team feels like a real threat at the moment. The path to even making the top five is difficult, but the Ducks can at least have a shot if they head into the Civil War (Nov. 24) with a 10-1 record. 8. Ole Miss The victories are rarely pretty for the Ole Miss Rebels, but they do have wins over two ranked opponents this season and entered Saturday 13th in FPI. The next two games will tell us plenty. Ole Miss plays Texas A&M and at Georgia, which will ultimately swing this ranking up or down. The Rebels are rarely going to win in dominating fashion and that likely includes next Saturday’s matchup at home against Texas A&M. If Lane Kiffin’s program wants more national recognition, it will need to pull off a stunner in Georgia on Nov. 11. We wouldn’t count on that happening, but Quinshon Judkins at least gives Ole Miss a shot. 9. Oklahoma The effort we saw last Saturday in a two-point victory over Central Florida carried over into Week 9. And after beating Texas just a few short weeks ago, the team was rocked. There will be a lot of finger-pointing in Norman after Saturday, with quarterback Dillon Gabriel shouldering some if not most of the responsibility. Our biggest takeaway, though, is Brent Venables’ reputation as a brilliant defensive mind has not translated to much on-field success by his defense in recent weeks. It doesn’t get immediately easier. Oklahoma heads to Oklahoma State for a massive rivalry game. The Sooners’ playoff hopes are effectively toast. 10. Texas  The Texas Longhorns should be favored in every remaining game on their regular-season schedule and victories will keep them in the top 10. When stacking up the best teams in college football, though, that’s where the Quinn Ewers injury really hurts. Despite playing without its starting QB, Texas destroyed BYU. Backup QB Maalik Murphy wasn’t perfect, but he did account for two touchdowns. While he’s not out for the season, starting a very inexperienced quarterback always significantly reduces a team’s margin for error in each game and that puts Texas at risk of an upset loss. In a massive week of games, Texas has a doozy. The Longhorns welcome surging Kansas State to town, and a win will not be easy.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NHL Previews and Odds - 11/02/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Nov 02, 2023

The Thursday sports card features NFL, NCAAF, NBA, and NHL action.Week 8 of the NFL regular season kicks off with the Pittsburg Steelers hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET. The Steelers were on a two-game winning streak before a 20-10 loss to Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. The Titans ended a two-game losing streak with a 28-23 upset loss as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. Pittsburgh is a 3-point favorite, with the total set at 37 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).The tenth week in NCAAF college football continues with three games on national television between FBS opponents. Texas Tech plays at home against TCU on FS1. The Red Raiders are on a two-game losing streak after their 27-14 upset loss as a 3-point favorite on October 21st. The Horned Frogs have lost three of their last four games after a 41-3 loss at Kansas State as a 5.5-point underdog on October 21st. Texas Tech is a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 59.5. Two NCAAF games kick off at 7:30 PM ET. Duke is at home against Wake Forest on ESPN. The Blue Devils lost for the third time in their last four games in a 23-0 loss at Louisville as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. The Demon Deacons lost for the fourth time in their last five games with their 41-16 loss to Florida State as a 21-point favorite on Saturday. Duke is a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 45. Troy hosts South Alabama on ESPN2. The Trojans are on a five-game winning streak after beating Texas State on the road by a 31-13 score as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. The Jaguars had won two games in a row before their 33-20 upset loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as an 11.5-point favorite on Saturday. Troy is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 44.5.The National Basketball Association has four games on its docket. The Philadelphia 76ers host the Toronto Raptors at 7:10 PM ET as an 8.5-point favorite at BetMGM with a total of 215.5. The New Orleans Pelicans play at home against the Detroit Pistons at 8:10 PM ET as an 8.5-point favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 219.5. The Orlando Magic travels to Utah to play the Jazz at 9:10 PM ET as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 222.5. The Phoenix Suns are at home against the San Antonio Spurs at 10:10 PM ET as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 225. The National Hockey League has 12 games on its slate. Five NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. The Tampa Bay Lightning play in Columbus against the Blue Jackets as a -170 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Florida Panthers are in Detroit against the Red Wings as a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The New York Rangers host the Carolina Hurricanes as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings visit Ottawa to play the Senators as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The New York Islanders play in Washington against the Capitals as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Boston Bruins play at home against the Toronto Maple Leafs at 7:37 PM ET as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The New Jersey Devils are in Minnesota against the Wild at 8:07 PM ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers play at home against the Dallas Stars at 9:07 PM ET as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Three NHL games begin at 10:07 PM ET. The Arizona Coyotes are at home against the Montreal Canadiens as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Seattle Kraken host the Nashville Predators as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Vegas Golden Knights play at home against the Winnipeg Jets as a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Vancouver Canucks play in San Jose against the Sharks at 10:37 PM ET as a -218 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.

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What's Going On Out West?

by Will Rogers

Wednesday, Nov 01, 2023

Prior to the season, I looked at some of the teams from the Pacific Division. I previewed the Canucks, Oilers, Flames and the Kraken. With those clubs having all played a decent number of games, it's time to get caught up on where they're at. Edmonton: Through their first eight games, the Oilers are sitting at 2-5-1. This is not the start that they envisioned. Beating up on their provincial rival in their last game has them pointed in the right direction. The talent is still there and they still should be fine. However, seven of their next 11 games come on the road. They need to smarten up before digging themselves too deep a hole. Calgary: A coaching change was supposed to be just what the under-achieving Flames needed. Outscored 34-19 in going 2-6-1, perhaps the Flames' issues were deeper than Calgary fans wanted to admit. I also thought they'd be better. They play eight of their next 12 on the road.  The season could be over before it started. The Flames know things are bad. They've suspended all contract talks. Vancouver: Things are much rosier on the West Coast than they are in the Prairies. The Canucks have gotten used to slow starts. So, they're very much appreciating going 6-2-1 through their first nine games. They've outscored opposing teams by a 36-21 margin. They've got a lot of winnable upcoming games, including three in November against a really bad San Jose team. This looks like a legit playoff team. Seattle: Everything went right for the Kraken last season. So far this season? Not so much. Seattle sits at 3-5-1. No longer sneaking up on teams, the Kraken have been outscored 34-24. Much of that was thanks to an 0-4 start. They've been better since.  Though the Kraken should remain competitive on most nights, the playoffs look like they could be a long-shot. The Pacific Division is currently home to the both the top team in the NHL, in terms of points and also the worst. All four teams are chasing Vegas. The Knights (9-0-1) are setting the pace in the Pacific. I touched on the Sharks being a bad team. They could be historically bad. They're 0-8-1 getting outscored 35-9. Of course, there's still a long way to go. It'll be interesting to see where we're at by this time next month! 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NHL, MLB and NBA Previews and Odds - 11/01/2023

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Nov 01, 2023

The Wednesday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, NBA, and NHL action.The tenth week in NCAAF college football continues with two games on national television between FBS opponents. Bowling Green hosts Ball State on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. The Falcons are on a two-game winning streak after their 41-14 victory against Akron as a 7-point favorite on October 21st. The Cardinals ended a four-game losing streak with a 24-17 upset victory against Central Michigan as a 5-point underdog on October 21st. Bowling Green is a 5.5-point favorite, with the total set at 40 (all odds from DraftKings). Akron plays at home against Kent State on ESPNU at 7:30 PM ET. The Zips are on a six-game losing streak after their loss to Bowling Green 11 days ago. The Golden Flashes are on a five-game losing streak after their 24-6 loss to Buffalo as a 6-point favorite on October 21st. Akron is a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 38.5. Major League Baseball continues its postseason with Game 5 of the World Series on Fox at 8:03 PM ET. Texas took a 3-1 lead in this best-of-seven series with their 11-7 victory on the road against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. The Rangers send out Nathan Eovaldi to pitch against Arizona’s Zac Gallen. Texas is a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The National Basketball Association has 13 games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 PM ET. The Detroit Pistons are at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 214. The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Toronto to play the Raptors as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 224. Five NBA games start at 7:40 PM ET. The Atlanta Hawks host the Washington Wizards as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 237.5. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Indiana Pacers as an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 231.5. The Miami Heat are at home against the Brooklyn Nets as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 222.5. The New York Knicks host the Cleveland Guardians as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 210.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder play at home against the New Orleans Pelicans on ESPN as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 225.5. Two NBA games begin at 8:10 PM ET. The Houston Rockets are at home against the Charlotte Hornets as a 2-point favorite with a total of 223. The Denver Nuggets play in Minnesota against the Timberwolves as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 223.5. The Dallas Mavericks host the Chicago Bulls at 8:40 PM ET as a 5-point favorite with a total of 225.5. The Utah Jazz play at home against the Memphis Grizzlies at 9:10 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 228.5. Two more games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 PM ET. The Golden State Warriors are at home against the Sacramento Kings as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 234.5. The Los Angeles Lakers are the technical home team at Crypto.com Arena against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 226.5. The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. The Buffalo Sabres visit Philadelphia to play the Flyers on TNT at 7:07 PM ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Dallas Stars play in Calgary against the Flames at 8:37 PM ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Colorado Avalanche host the St. Louis Blues on TNT at 9:37 PM ET as a -230 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Arizona Coyotes play in Anaheim against the Ducks at 10:07 PM ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. 

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College Football 2023-24 Preview, Part Four -- 133 Questions and Thoughts for 133 FBS Teams

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team takes about 30 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.  AIR FORCE: Can the Falcons continue their level of excellence after winning ten games for the third straight time in a full season (excluding the COVID-impacted 2020 campaign)? This team has two-straight 10-3 seasons under head coach Troy Calhoun in his now 17th year with the program. The Falcons led the nation by holding their opponents to just 254.4. total YPG. Eight starters return from that unit along with nine of the thirteen players who logged in 250 or more snaps. Five starters are back on offense but they are replacing three-year starting quarterback Haaziq Daniels who expertly executed their “flexbone option” offense. APPALACHIAN STATE: Was the third season under head coach Shawn Clark a bump in the road or the first signs indicating a decline in the program? After inheriting an experienced team that finished 13-1 in 2019, the Mountaineers won 19 games in his first two seasons. But after a 6-6 campaign last year, they failed to finish over .500 for the first time since 2013. On the positive side, they did outgain their Sun Belt Conference opponents by +49 net YPG. A 2-5 record in games decided by one scoring possession held them back from reaching a bowl game. But only four of their wins were against FBS programs with two of their victories being against FCS programs. With only 11 starters returning with a hole at quarterback after two-year starter Chase Bryce graduated, the Mountaineers have their lowest returning production since the Scott Satterfield era back in 2018.CALIFORNIA: Will head coach Justin Wilcox’s aggressiveness in the transfer portal lead to the results on the field that will get him off the hot seat  in his seventh year with the program? Bringing in transfer players at a place like Cal with its high academic standards is tough — but the Admissions Department has been more engaged in working with the Athletic Department in accommodating the admission and enrollment of potential transfers. After three straight losing seasons, Wilcox needed to change something else besides changing the offensive coordinator, although he did do that for the third straight year as well. Wilcox tapped 19 transfers overall with seven of these players being former blue-chippers like sophomore quarterback Sam Jackson V who comes over from TCU where he was a four-star recruit. With these players joining 17 starters from last year, the Golden Bears have the opportunity to turn around a program that finished 4-8 last season. EAST CAROLINA: After six straight losing seasons, the Pirates have a 15-10 record in the last two years after they followed up their 7-5 record last year with an 8-5 mark in 2022. Their 53-29 victory against Coastal Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl was their first postseason win since 2013 (and their first bowl game since 2015). Is this the new normal in the fifth season under head coach Mike Houston — or is the program likely to take a step back? They return only ten starters with both sides of the ball hit hard with attrition. The offensive ranks 130th in the FBS by returning just 16% of its offensive yardage production from last year — and they are replacing four-year starting quarterback Holton Ahlers. The defense has six starters back from lost eight of their top 12 tacklers along with 11 of the 18 players who took 200 or more snaps.  HOUSTON: Is this a team that can remain competitive moving from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12 this season? The Cougars finished 8-5 after a 23-16 win against UL-Louisiana in the Independence Bowl — and their 5-3 record in conference play could have been more with them outgaining those opponents by +76 YPG. But they allowed 32 or more points seven times — and now they lose eight of their top nine tacklers and 11 of the 20 players who logged in 200 or more snaps. After ranking 104th in the nation by allowing 421.8 total YPG, they will be playing even more powerful offenses in the Big 12. They also replace four-year starting quarterback Clayton Thune who moves on to the NFL. On the other hand, fifth-year head coach Dana Holgorsen is no stranger to the Big 12 after a successful run with West Virginia in that conference before his move to Houston. KANSAS STATE: Can the Wildcats beat top-tier teams with elite talent on their roster? Using ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ analytics for power rankings, they had a 1-3 record against top-ten teams and a 9-1 record against their remaining opponents. They did upset TCU in the Big 12 Championship Game — but the Horned Frogs were already destined to make the College Football Playoff with their undefeated record at the time. The Wildcats lost to Tulane (not an SP+ top-ten team but who did upset USC), Texas, and earlier to TCU — and they then got thumped in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama by a 45-20 score. Head coach Chris Klieman has put his fingerprint on the culture in Manhattan — his teams play smart and physical. But does the lack of blue-chippers on the roster limit the potential of his teams? This year’s group returns 13 starters — but they lost five players to the NFL which is a ton for this program. LIBERTY: Can first-year head coach Jamey Caldwell transfer his success at Coastal Carolina into this Liberty program playing in Conference USA?  After four years of navigating Sun Belt Conference opponents with the Chanticleers, Caldwell is facing an upgrade in competition defending against his triple-option offense that is heavy on play-action. He did bring co-offensive coordinators Willy Korn and Newland Isaac with him from Coastal Carolina along with defensive line coach Skylor Magee who gets promoted to be the Flames’ defensive coordinator. This staff inherits only eight starters from the team that finished 8-5 last season with a four-game losing streak after a 21-19 loss to Toledo in the Bahamas Bowl. MARSHALL: Can the Thundering Herd maintain their level of play from their final five games of the season with the average scoring in those five victories being 23.8-13.6 Points-Per-Game? They concluded their 9-4 season with a 28-14 victory against Connecticut in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Only 11 starters return from that group with the biggest hits being on defense where they have just four starters back. They lost six of their top nine tacklers and eight of the 14 players who logged in 300 or more snaps from the unit that held Sun Belt Conference opponents to 16.0 PPG. Sophomore Cam Fancher does return at quarterback after posting a 6-1 record after taking over as the starter in their final seven games. MEMPHIS: When teams are winning or losing a disproportionate number of one-possession games, the analytics community generally thinks that is simply a function of luck that will even out over time — but what if the Tigers' disappointing results in one-possession games are reflective of their culture and game management under head coach Ryan Silverfield? After losing all four of their games decided by one possession last season, they are just 2-8 in their last ten games decided by one scoring possession going into Silverfield’s fourth season with the program. The Tigers outgained their American Athletic Conference opponents by +54 net YPG but settled for a 3-5 conference record and a 7-6 record overall. Twelve starters return led by junior quarterback Seth Henigan who will be a three-year starter under center this season. OKLAHOMA STATE: Are the Cowboys in permanent decline or are they just experiencing a temporary lull? They finished 7-6 last season with their 4-5 record in Big 12 play countered by them getting outgained by -79 YPG against conference opponents. They return 13 starters from that group but must replace four-year starting quarterback Spencer Sanders with his transfer to Ole Miss along with running back Dominic Richardson who transferred to Baylor. Their offense finished outside the top 40 in scoring for the third straight season after scoring 30.6 PPG, ranking 48th in the nation. They only averaged 125.5 rushing YPG, their lowest tally since 2001. On the defensive side of the ball, after ranking fifth in the nation by holding their opponents to 297.4 YPG in 2021, they plummeted to 114th in the nation by giving up 435.7 YPG. The loss of long-time defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Ohio State last year was a big blow to the program. This appears to be a program that has lost its identity and lost its way in the 19th season under head coach Mike Gundy. The floor is high with this program under his guidance with 17 straight winning seasons — but after winning ten or more games from 2016 through 2018, they have won no more than eight games in four of their last five campaigns. The outlier season was in 2021-22 when they won the Fiesta Bowl to finish 12-2 — but that was a year where they were fortunate to have a 6-1 record in games decided by one-scoring possession. PITTSBURGH: Has head coach Pat Narduzzi raised the ceiling of expectations for this program — or is this a football team that will take a step or two back this season? The Panthers have won 20 games in the last two years after following up their Kenny Pickett ACC Championship team with a 9-4 record last season. But after losing seven players on defense to the NFL, they only return 12 starters this year. The last time Pitt had won more than eight games before this current run was back in 2009 when they went 10-3. Narduzzi was aggressive in the transfer portal again after bringing in Kedon Slovis from USC last season (to up-and-down results) — senior Phil Jurkovec comes in after 24 starts at Boston College and sophomore Christian Veilleux enters the program after being a blue-chip recruit at Penn State. SMU: The Mustangs have been very active in the transfer portal — but are they taking one step forward for every two steps back? Second-year head coach Rhett Lashlee brought several players on both sides of the ball from Miami (FL) where he was previously the offensive coordinator. He has also brought in some defensive players from Liberty where defensive coordinator Scott Symons previously served. But two-year starting quarterback Tanner Mordecai left the program for Wisconsin after making 24 starts in the last two seasons. This is a team that finished 7-6 in their first year under Lashlee — the worst record for this program in four seasons. While the Mustangs ranked 14th in the nation by generating 472.8 total YPG, they also ranked 111th by allowing 431.2 total YPG. Third-year sophomore Preston Stone takes over at quarterback as a former four-star recruit — but this could be a program moving in the wrong direction after Sonny Dykes left two years ago to become the head coach at TCU.SOUTH ALABAMA: How high is the ceiling for the Jaguars after enjoying their best season at the FBS level by going 10-3 overall with a 7-1 record in the Sun Belt Conference? In the first two years under head coach Kane Wommack, the team settled for 4-7 and 5-7 records. Eighteen starters are back from a group that finished second in the conference by outgaining their opponents by +111 YPG. However, they were perhaps a bit fortunate two in five of their seven games decided by one-scoring possession. SOUTH CAROLINA: Can the Gamecocks continue the offensive momentum they established at the end of last season? They scored 132 combined points in their final three games which included upset wins against Tennessee and Clemson before a 45-38 loss to Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl. Head coach Shane Beamer had the offensive playbook simplified late in the season which seems to have played a role in the increase in productivity. Six starters return on that side of the ball including senior quarterback Spencer Rattler who was brilliant down the stretch. SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI: After winning only six games in his first two seasons for a 6-16 overall record, head coach Will Hall oversaw the Golden Eagles earning their first bowl victory since 2016 with a 38-24 win against Rice in the Lending Tree Bowl. Was that 7-6 campaign a momentary blip on the radar — or will this be the new normal for this program? The former Tulsa offensive coordinator built consistent winners at the Division II level with West Georgia and West Alabama last decade — so he has a track record of success. But his team was outgained by -38 net YPG in Sun Belt Conference play despite their 4-4 record. Fifteen starters are back from last season led by running back Frank Gore, Jr. — but solving the quarterback issue has remained a problem with Hall resorting to using Gore in the wildcat formation and even as an occasional passer in the past. Hall used the transfer portal to address this issue in the offseason by bringing in Billy Wiles from Clemson and Holman Edwards from Houston. SYRACUSE: Was the Orange’s first winning season in four years a mirage? Syracuse finished 7-6 despite losing six of their last seven games and getting outgained in ACC play by -32.6 net YPG despite a 4-4 conference record. Twelve starters return including senior quarterback Garrett Shrader — but depth is a concern for a program that had only won 11 combined games in the three previous years. Recruiting under head coach Dino Babers in his eighth year with the program has been a problem — and the Orange’s 6-20 straight-up record in November in his tenure may speak to the quality of the overall roster. TULANE: The Green Wave experienced the biggest one-season turnaround in the history of NCAA college football by rebounding from a 2-10 record in 2021 to a 12-2 mark last that culminated in their 46-45 victory against USC in the Cotton Bowl. Is this sustainable — or is a step back (or two) for this program unavoidable? While they had a 7-1 record in the American Athletic Conference, they only ranked fourth with a +43 net YPG clip in conference play. The defense lost their top-five tacklers and defensive coordinator Chris Hampton who took the same position at Oregon. But 14 starters are back including four-year starting quarterback Michael Pratt who threw 27 touchdown passes to just five interceptions. Head coach Willie Fritz is well-respected in coaching circles — and he may be seeing the fruits of his labor at a non-traditional power in his eighth year with the program. UCLA: Has the transfer market enabled some bad habits in head coach Chip Kelly's recruiting tactics? Kelly is aggressive in bringing in transfers on both sides of the ball — but his attention to detail in recruiting may be waning along the way. The concern with leaning too heavily on the transfer portal is that it risks eroding the culture in the program with so many swinging doors in and out with fewer players dedicating themselves to the program for three or four years. On the other hand, Kelly should be using every tool in the box to improve his defense that gave up 30 or more points eight times last year. After finally letting go of his long-time defensive coordinator Jerry Azzinaro last year, former Boston College defensive coordinator Bill McGovern was not the answer with Bruins ranking 86th in the nation by allowing 403.3 YPG. Kelly turned to the 32-year-old Baltimore Ravens’ safeties coach D’Anton Lynn to try to fix his defense this year. UNLV: Can first-year head coach Barry Odom instill some life in what is now the afterthought football team in Las Vegas? The Rebels have not played in a bowl game since 2013 — and they have posted a 29-74 record in the last ten seasons. Odom is a good football coach who had some competitive teams in his four-year run as the head coach at Missouri from 2016 to 2019 before serving as the defensive coordinator at Arkansas in the last three seasons. His vast experience in the SEC offers some much-needed gravitas to this program. UTAH STATE: Did injuries hold the Aggies back last season — or was this a team due to take a few steps back after their improbable 11-3 campaign two years ago that included winning the Mountain West Conference Championship Game in the first year under head coach Blake Anderson. That 2021 season was propped up a six upset victories and a 4-0 record in games decided by one-scoring possession. The team settled for a 6-7 record last year after losing to Memphis in the First Responder Bowl by a 38-10 score. Their incumbent quarterback Logan Bonner suffered a season-ending injury in September and only three starters on defense were available to start all 13 games. Nine starters return this season including senior quarterback Cooper Legas who started the final nine games of the season. But once again, the Aggies won all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. Consistently winning close games is probably not sustainable. VIRGINIA TECH: Do we still not fully appreciate just how good legendary head coach Frank Beamer along with his outstanding defensive coordinator Bud Foster were over the years? Justin Fuente was only able to oversee a 43-31 record in his six years with the program before he was let go at the tail end of the 2021 season. The program tapped a former graduate assistant to Foster in Brent Pry who had success as the defensive coordinator at Penn State for 11 seasons — but the Hokies were only 3-8 last year. It is not a quick fix in Blacksburg after the roster talent declined during the Fuente era which begs the question as to how fragile the foundation was while Beamer and Foster propped things up with their outstanding coaching. WASHINGTON STATE: While Jake Dickert has led this team to consecutive 7-6 record in his first two seasons as the Cougars head coach, can he get his team to become more competitive against the best teams in the country? They lost all five of their contests against teams ranked in the top 20 in ESPN’s SP+ Power Rankings while giving up 34 Points-Per-Game and 7.0 Yards-Per-Play against those opponents. The offense has lagged as well against better competition — they only scored 12.5 PPG in their games against teams ranked in the SP+ top 40 defenses last year. There seems to be a talent deficit in those games with the Cougars appearing to be playing from behind in the transfer portal wars. Their 4-5 record in the Pac-12 last year is tempered by a -40 net YPG margin in those games. On the other hand, Dickert’s selective use of the transfer portal may have him striking the right balance for this program to establish and maintain the culture he wants to nurture in Pullman.WEST VIRGINIA: Head coach Neal Brown is on the hot seat — and do the Mountaineers have enough talent on the roster to turn things around in his fifth year with the program? They have just a 14-21 record in the Big 12 under his leadership which is contributing to them losing more good players to bigger programs than the talent they are acquiring in the transfer portal. While they were 3-6 in conference play, they got outgained by -90.7 net YPG in those contests. They lost 12 of the 19 players on defense that logged in 200 or more snaps. Graham Harrell moved to Purdue to become their offensive coordinator — so running backs coach Chad Scott became the fourth offense coordinator under Brown. What is left is a small roster that lacks physicality — and Brown continues to struggle to establish a firm foundation from year to year in Morgantown. WYOMING: Is this the year that the Cowboys take the next step to challenge for the Mountain West Conference title? Under head coach Craig Bohl, this team has finished .500 or better in six of the last seven years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. Their 5-3 record in conference play last season was their best mark against MWC foes since 2016. Bohl has 15 starters back from last year’s group including ten starters on defense along with 13 of the 16 players who played at least 250 snaps — and ten of those players were freshmen or sophomores. Five starters are back on offense including fifth-year senior quarterback Andrew Peasley.  Best of luck -- Frank.

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NFL 2023-24 Preview, Part Two -- 16 Questions and Thoughts for 16 AFC Teams

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team takes about an hour to 90 minutes of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my AFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).BALTIMORE RAVENS: The Lamar Jackson contract extension drama is finally over — but will this offense operate at a higher level if new offensive coordinator Todd Monken grants Jackson’s seeming request to want to pass the ball more often? Jackson claims he wants to run the ball less -- and while that sounds nice, in theory, it may take away the aspect of his game that makes him special. The receiving corps seems improved after drafting Zay Flowers in the first round and signing Odell Beckham, Jr. as a free agent to join wide receiver Rashod Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews. The Ravens offense was stagnating schematically under previous offensive coordinator Greg Roman — and Monken has demonstrated willingness and skill to adapt his schemes to the talent on the roster. But while Jackson’s passing skills have improved over the years, he is not likely to ever thrive with his deep passes. Will this experiment work?BUFFALO BILLS: This a franchise that appears to be still reeling from their overtime loss to Kansas City from the 2021-22 season when they blew a touchdown lead when kicking off with just 13 seconds left on the clock. The Bills behaved like a team trying to win the AFC Championship Game and redeem themselves from that loss in September — rather than engaging in the long journey which is the new season. This was a team that was wound very tight — as evidenced by the meltdown of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after a failed fourth down attempt in Miami for their first loss of the season in late September. A mass shooting and two deadly blizzards followed — all before the Damar Hamlin scare that canceled their game with Cincinnati late in the season on Monday Night Football. By the time of their showdown at home against Cincinnati in the AFC Divisional round of the playoffs, this team was out of gas, physically and emotionally. A fundamental problem this team has yet to fix under Dorsey’s leadership on offense is a credible four-minute offense to protect leads.  CINCINNATI BENGALS: Is Joe Burrow not getting enough help on the offensive side of the ball? The Bengals lost tight end Hayden Hurst and running back Samaje Perine in free agency. They did sign  Irv Smith as a free agent from Minnesota but he has never been as productive a pass catcher as Hurst has been in the league. They also drafted Illinois’ Chase Brown in the fifth round of the NFL draft — and while he has promise as a runner,  he is not likely to replace Perine’s 38 catches out of the backfield. Perine averaged 4.2 Yards-Per-Carry last season while Joe Mixon generated only 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry despite being asked to rush more than twice the time as Perine’s 95 attempts. Perine is excellent in pass protection which is an area where Brown will not possess similar skills — and that brings us to the biggest question for this team. The Bengals did improve from 31st in the NFL in 2021-22 to 15th last season in adjusted sacks allowed — but the blocking technique being taught by the coaching staff to the offensive line remains criticized as substandard by some.  They poached left tackle Orlando Brown, Jr. from Kansas City — but it is telling that the Chiefs led by a former offensive lineman in Andy Reid did not seem anxious about resigning him themselves.DENVER BRONCOS: Can head coach Sean Payton fix Russell Wilson? It is no coincidence that Payton is now the head coach in Denver after Wilson made it clear he wanted to emulate the style of Drew Brees in the second half of his career now liberated from the shackles of the Seattle run-first offense so he could finally let the world See Him Cook! Despite his claims of showing up at 7 AM in the preseason to help the coaching staff install his desired plays, it was rookie head coach Nathaniel Hackett who received most of the blame for Wilson’s disastrous season where he produced career-lows in most QB categories. Payton was just the man who could get Wilson’s career back on track — even if that meant, unironically, embracing the schemes of Seahawks offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who was Enemy Number One in the Let Russ Cook extended cinematic universe. Payton faces a dilemma that only a time machine or a lobotomy can fix. He could install an offense similar to what was working with Brees in the twilight of his career — but does Wilson have the vision and the on-the-field smarts to replicate what Brees was doing in operating that quick strike offense out of the shotgun? Wilson has never had a similar accuracy as Brees either. Instead, Payton could revert to schemes from which Wilson had success in Seattle (see Schottenheimer, Brian) — but does the 34-year-old have enough juice left in his legs to be a legitimate threat on the ground? Wilson’s success was as an improvising jazz artist — and here comes Payton as a prog rock artist who would meet with Brees for hours the night before the game to fine-tune the hours of game planning that had already been invested into the week to coordinate final decisions. HOUSTON TEXANS: It’s hard to be optimistic about the Texans, They have not won more than four games in three straight seasons. They have finished last in Yards-Per-Drive in two consecutive seasons. They ranked last season in rush defense by allowing 170.2 rushing Yards-Per-Game. They have their fourth head coach in five seasons with DeMeco Ryans taking over for Lovie Smith last season. After finishing 11-38-1 in their last three seasons while finishing in the bottom five in Points-Per-Game and PPG Allowed, the organization has hit the reset button with new coaching across the board. DeMeco Ryans is their fourth head coach in five seasons taking over for Lovie Smith last season. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowick is a first-time play-caller. Defensive coordinator Matt Burke ran the Miami Dolphins defense in 2017 and 2018. The organization is banking on drafting quarterback C.J. Stroud with the second pick in the draft and then trading a haul to Arizona for the third pick where they defensive end Willie Anderson, but it is hard to tell how much impact all these changes will have in Year One. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: General manager Chris Ballard is on the hot seat as the franchise turns to Philadelphia offensive coordinator Shane Steichen as their new head coach after firing former Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich midseason who they also hired after a two-year stint as the Philly offensive coordinator. Despite their 4-12-1 record, the Colts were only outgained by -22.4 net Yards-Per-Game — and they were 4-6 in games decided by one scoring possession after posting a 9-8 record in 2022-23. Fumbles on the field and in management (hiring Jeff Saturday as an interim head coach) were pervasive — Indy led the AFC with 37 fumbles which were 11 more than the AFC team with the second-most fumbles. After investing in Matt Ryan as a free agent quarterback failed, the organization invested in Anthony Richardson as their quarterback of the future by drafting him in the first round despite his only 13 career starts in college. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: After a big leap last year after the Urban Meyer disaster when they finished 3-14, is this a team ready to take another big step to compete with the top teams in the AFC to make a Super Bowl — or will they be closer to the group that only outgained their opponents by +4.1 net YPG while spotting the Los Angeles Chargers a 27-0 halftime lead in the wildcard round of the playoffs before rallying for that 31-30 victory? All 11 starters return on defense from a unit that ranked 24th in the NFL by allowing 353.3 YPG. General manager Trent Balke neither signed a significant defensive player in free agency nor drafted a defensive player in the first three rounds of the NFL draft. It seems as if the “plan” is to draw an inside straight where quarterback Trevor Lawrence takes another big lead in his second season working with head coach Doug Pederson, wide receiver Calvin Ridley does not miss a beat in his return to the field after playing only five games since 2021, the offensive line somehow hangs in there, and that linebackers Travon Walker, Josh Allen, and Devin Lloyd stop underachieving and begin developing into the defensive stars that the organization hoped they would as former first-round draft picks. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Can the defending Super Bowl champions maintain the razor-sharp intensity necessary to run through the gauntlet that will likely be AFC playoffs in January? With JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman gone, Patrick Mahomes has now lost another two starting wide receivers since the departure of Tyreek Hill last year. The Chiefs are replacing eight veterans including five starters from last year’s championship roster including defensive end Frank Clark (and now Chris Jones is holding out). On the other hand, perhaps this organization is successfully rebuilding on the fly by getting younger at wide receiver and on defense.  LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: After making the playoffs the previous year, was the Raiders’ 6-11 record a reflection of bad luck — or is it a harbinger of things to come in head coach Josh McDaniels’ second season? On the one hand, the Raiders had a 3-9 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They were only outgained by -13.1 net YPG — their Pythagorean win total was 7.9. They blew four games after holding a double-digit lead — and six of their losses came after holding a lead by a touchdown or more. This begs the question if there is a deeper problem regarding culture under McDaniels. The former New England offensive coordinator had culture problems when he was briefly the head coach in Denver. McDaniels had communication issues with some Broncos players and he was too rigid with his management style. He may not have learned from his mistakes in his first head coaching stint. On the other hand, this is not a great roster in Las Vegas. The Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock regime was a disaster with a bevy of high draft picks already busts. Unfortunately for Raiders’ fans, new general manager Dave Ziegler may be making similar mistakes by over-drafting players from name college programs or the signing of free agent pass rusher Chandler Jones last summer. The 33-year-old had only 4.5 sacks last year. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: Is Brandon Staley really a genius — or was his brilliance all simply stemming from the fortune of having Aaron Donald roaming the line of scrimmage back when he was defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams? Staley was the defensive coordinator for the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl-winning team — and his aggressive man defense was successful because Donald could consistently generate pressure on the quarterback without the need for blitzes. But with a force in the middle like Donald for the Chargers, Staley’s defenses have been below average. Los Angeles has ranked 23rd and 20th in total defense the last two seasons with run defense being the biggest problem as they have ranked 30th and 28th in the NFL by allowing 138.9 and 145.8 rushing YPG. Overcompensating to slow down the pass has not been effective without a player of Donald’s talent. Staley was only a defensive coordinator for one year with the Rams before being given the Chargers job. His reputation as being a brilliant mind seems to be cemented by his reliance on The Analytics to justify his fourth-down aggressiveness. The underlying truth that is presumed whenever The Analytics are invoked to absolve coaches like Staley from showing their work as to why going for it on fourth down at your own 25-yard line actually improves win probabilities — just trust the good people at NextGen and ESPN who do not have any ulterior motives to sell snake oil. But after overseeing his team blow a 27-point lead to Jacksonville in the playoffs, we should wonder if some of these analytics companies promoting the “revolution” are not the only con artists in this story. Staley cannot get his side of the ball right — and he compounds that problem by consistently getting outmaneuvered in the game management department. Justin Herbert tends to bail him out — but we are left to wonder how much Staley is holding back the immense talent that his quarterback possesses.   MIAMI DOLPHINS: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has not completed a full season since 2018. After he likely suffered three concussions last season, the first order of business is whether he can stay healthy for the entire season. He is taking jiu-jitsu lessons to learn how to fall better — so take that Aaron Donald! Given the history of injuries at the quarterback position for San Francisco under head coach Kyle Shanahan, we have to wonder if the schemes that Dolphins’ head coach Mike McDaniel has inherited simply put the QB more at risk since a play-action system requires tight ends to sell out for the run and not pass protect. There is concern about the league catching up to McDaniel’s unique schemes with this team in their first season. Miami lost six of their last seven games — Tuagovailoa completed only 52.6% of his passes over his final four games with five interceptions and four fumbles when facing press coverage. The defense transforms from Cover-1 schemes to new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio who is the architect of the modern Cover-2 zone schemes. Maybe this shift helps — but the learning curve for success under Fangio is not immediate. Lastly, I turn to McDaniel — is he a schematic “genius” who the league began catching up to, or is he a true leader of men?NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Just how much blame should Matt Patricia and Joe Judge be blamed for the underwhelming Patriots offense that ranked 26th in the NFL by generating only 314.6 total Yards-Per-Game? While head coach Bill Belichick did not assign job titles, Patricia seemed to serve as the offensive coordinator who called the plays and Judge was the quarterbacks coach. I’m no fan of either coach — I’m agnostic on Judge while having animus towards Patricia regarding how he handled the allegations against him regarding sexual misconduct. However, I found the criticisms of both of them as unqualified for their jobs as lazy, and misunderstanding the role they both have. Belichick was a wide receivers coach before moving to the defensive side of the ball — he thinks that coaches coach and that understanding football requires understanding both sides of the ball. And while the current zeitgeist glamorizes the offensive coaches who deploy laminated play-calling sheets the size of a Greek restaurant menu, that is not the only way to oversee an effective offense. Many coaches privilege the ability to understand and execute offensive plays as more important as the diversity of a play-calling sheet — and it is fair to say that Belichick falls into that category. But now with Patricia banished and Judge back to the catch-all assistant head coach designation this season after Belichick tapped Bill O’Brien to once again serve as his head coach, the onus now falls on quarterback Mac Jones in his third year in the NFL. The idea is that reuniting Jones with his offensive coordinator at Alabama will solve the momentary bump in his career trajectory. But what if Jones simply doesn’t have what it takes?NEW YORK JETS: Will the Jets be serious about making a deep run in the playoffs — or will they get sucked into the media circus now with Aaron Rodgers in town? Between the spotlight of Hard Knocks, Rodgers’ weekly appearances on the Pat McAfee podcast, and the new Green Packers wing in the locker room featuring Rodgers’ ex-teammate buddies, there are plenty of opportunities for distractions. I find the bigger question mark relates to new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. How much was he to blame for his disastrous stint as head coach of the Denver Broncos? And how much credit did he deserve for the offensive success in Green Bay when he was the OC for some of Rodgers’ best seasons? If Hackett is simply a “yes man” for Rodgers, then that could become yet another source of friction in the locker room. On the other hand, if Rodgers and Hackett are serious and in sync and a defense that held 11 opponents to 20 points or less continues to develop under head coach Robert Saleh, then the Jets will be in position to snap their 12-season streak missing the playoffs. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Is this team being underrated by the failure to appreciate simply how important T.J. Watt is to this team? The Steelers had a 1-6 record in the seven games Watt missed in his opening week injury — but they posted an 8-2 record when he was healthy and on the field. Their improvement in the second half of the season also coincided with rookie Kenny Pickett developing at quarterback as he started the final 12 games of the season. In his final eight starts, Pickett threw only one interception.Best of luck — Frank.

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Did Baltimore Expose Detroit in their 38-6 Victory in Week 7?

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

In our NFL Game of the Month for October, the Baltimore Ravens easily beat the Detroit Lions by a 38-6 score on October 22nd.  The Lions have been a feel-good story in the NFL this season with them raising their record to 5-1 after a 20-6 victory at Tampa Bay going into their showdown on the road against the Ravens. They are in the driver’s seat to win their first division title since 1993 with their competition in the NFC North in various stages of rebuilding. They had won thirteen of their last sixteen games, yet winning on the road in Baltimore is always a difficult chore. But what does it say about Detroit that went into halftime trailing by a 28-0 score? How do they give up 502 yards of offense? Perhaps injuries played a role in the blowout loss? Their defense is missing cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and C.J. Garder-Johnson along with linebacker James Houston who was their second-best pass rusher to Aidan Hutchinson. Running back David Montgomery and starting left guard Jonah Jackson were also out for this game.Quarterback Jared Goff is playing at a very high level right now, and his road woes have probably been overstated when considering that Detroit has won seven of their last eight games on the road. Yet Goff is still playing at his best when playing in the controlled conditions indoors at Ford Field (or previously in the southern California weather for the Los Angeles Rams). Even this season, Goff is completing 66% of his passes in his three starts on the road with a quarterback rating of 97.7 which are good numbers yet not at the level of his 72.9% completion rate with a 113.3 quarterback rating in his three starts at home. The winds of 15 miles per hour at M&T Bank Stadium certainly did not help.Maybe Detroit should be given a pass since so many NFC teams struggle when facing Lamar Jackson for the first time. Baltimore now has a 15-1 straight-up record against NFC teams with Jackson as their starting quarterback. These NFC teams lack experience playing and defending Jackson’s mobility, and he is such a special athlete that opposing teams do not have a player close to his level to practice against from their scout team during the week. However, losing to Jackson is one thing, yet losing by 32 points perhaps points to deeper issues. The Lions did successfully rebound in their next game with their 26-14 win against Las Vegas back at home at Ford Field in front of a nationally televised audience for Monday Night Football. Yet that final score was much closer than it should have been when considering that Detroit outgained the Raiders by 329 yards after holding them to only 157 total yards. The Lions settled for three field goals in the first half including two following drives that stalled in the red zone. Another one of their scoring opportunities was flipped when Marcus Peters intercepted Goff to make it a 16-14 game early in the fourth quarterback. We offer full disclosure by admitting that we were on the Raiders for this game. Given the questions we have about the Lions, getting more of a touchdown (or more) from the oddsmakers seemed too much to pass up. Las Vegas likely covers the point spread if Jimmy Garoppolo can throw even a fairly accurate pass to a wide-open Davante Adams who could have walked into the end zone to have the Raiders pull within five points. Yet Garoppolo badly overthrew Adams in an embarrassing effort. Adams caught only one pass despite being targeted six times, and five of those misses were on the quarterback. Despite a 3-5 record, Las Vegas may be the worst team in the NFL with the players seemingly in revolt against head coach Josh McDaniels while not having much support for Garoppolo. It is hard to read much into the Lions’ effort against that team. Frankly, Detroit should have won that game by a similar margin than with the loss the Ravens handed them. Whether it is injuries, the challenge of facing Jackson for the first time, or perhaps the occasional clunker that almost every NFL team experiences, the Lions still have some questions to answer from their 32-point loss to Baltimore. Good luck - TDG.

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Boise State is Poised for Strong Finish to the Season

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

The Team won our NCAA-F College Football Game of the Month last Saturday backing Boise State against Wyoming in a spot where they looked undervalued relative to the oddsmakers point spread expectations. The Broncos had been struck with some back luck in the first half of their season. After an understandable loss at Washington to begin their season, they then lost to Central Florida on a game-ending field goal. They later lost to Memphis after their attempted game-tying field goal in the third quarter was blocked and returned for a Golden Knights touchdown that was a 10-point swing that changed the direction of that game. The Broncos still only lost by a 35-32 score. Then two weeks ago, Boise State held a 30-10 lead at Colorado State with under five minutes to go before losing on a last-second Hail Mary pass by the Rams to steal that game. Those three losses were by a combined six points. The bye week for head coach Andy Avalos' club came just at the right time last week as they could regroup and get to work to finish the season on a strong note. The Broncos had covered the point spread in eight of their last nine games after a loss. The offense is getting healthy again with the offensive line coming into this game against the Cowboys in their best shape all season. Avalos expected running back George Holani to play as well after not playing since the opening game against the Huskies with a leg injury. The junior is a two-time 1000-yard rusher for Boise State after gaining 1157 rushing yards last season. Avalos has been rotating his quarterbacks yet has committed to sophomore Taylen Green as his starter for this game. Last year’s Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year offers a dual threat with his legs. The Broncos hosted a Wyoming team last Saturday that they had beaten eight straight times at home at Albertson’s Stadium by more than 16 points per game. The Cowboys were on a three-game winning streak before a 34-27 loss at the Air Force two weeks ago as a 13-point underdog. Wyoming had been fortunate to win five of their first six games with special teams touchdowns and opposing quarterback injuries. Yet they were only outscoring their opponents by 0.7 net points per game, and they were getting outgained in yardage by 46 yards per game. They had lost both of their first two games on the road by an average of 14 points with their offense only averaging 18.5 points per game and 306 yards per game. On the road, they have covered the point spread in fourteen of their last forty-five games after winning two of their last three games. Wyoming had covered the point spread in fifteen of their last forty games on the road in conference play when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog of up to seven points or as a favorite of up to seven points. Boise State made a statement right out of the gate against the Cowboys by scoring a touchdown on their first possession and then successfully converted their two-point play. Wyoming scored a touchdown near the end of the first quarter yet the Broncos scored the next 24 points to walk away with a 32-7 victory (giving us our NCAA-F College Football Game of the Month winner). Holani ran the ball 20 times for 75 yards while catching another three balls for 17 yards out of the backfield. Green played under center yet it was Madsen Maddux who starred for Boise State at quarterback by completing 12 of 15 passes for 147 yards with a touchdown pass while adding another 24 yards on the ground. With a 4-4 record going into the final month of the regular season, the Broncos are probably out of the race to play in the Mountain West Conference championship game being three games behind Fresno State and four games behind Air Force. Yet Boise State seems on track to play in another bowl game while being a dangerous team in the conference the rest of the way.Good luck - TDG.

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Breaking Down the James Harden Trade

by Oskeim Sports

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

The NBA's extended nightmare has come to an end. James Harden has finally arrived in Los Angeles and is no longer with the Philadelphia 76ers. After months of posturing and animosity, the Los Angeles Clippers and the Sixers reached a deal late on Monday night that sends former league MVP James Harden to his desired location in Los Angeles. According to the trade details, Harden, PJ Tucker, and rookie Filip Petrusev are headed to Los Angeles in exchange for the following: ●     Robert Covington●     Nic Batum●     Marcus Morris●     KJ Martin●     An unprotected first-round pick in 2028●     Two second-round picks●     A 2029 pick swap and●     Another 2026 first-round pick (courtesy of the Clippers via the Thunder). Along with his current (and previous) teammates Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, Harden joins Russell Westbrook, his former teammate on two different teams. Both George and Leonard reportedly pushed the Clippers to make this deal happen. Was it worth it? What Happens to the Sixers Next? What happens to Joel Embiid now is the biggest question front offices will be asking today. This summer, Embiid hinted that he might be willing to move away from Philadelphia in order to complete his NBA championship dream. It's believed that several franchises are watching closely in case Embiid chooses to pursue a trade request. According to league sources, the Miami Heat and New York Knicks would compete to be first in line for Embiid. That's why the Harden trade is so intriguing. With a healthy Embiid and a rapidly developing Tyrese Maxey, Sixers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey has brought in veterans who can help the team contend for a spot in the conference finals. Marcus Morris and Robert Covington replace PJ Tucker's defensive adaptability and spot-up three-point shooting. Batum adds adaptability by playing several forward positions. Additionally, the Sixers' increased draft capital will allow Morey to use it to pursue future star trades. Although he didn’t acquire a star player in the Harden trade, he was able to acquire enough assets from the Clippers to use in the future. Who Would Philly Pursue? With two additional first-round picks, the Sixers can go after a high-level guard to fit into the lineup alongside Embiid and Maxey. Who is that guard? It’s possible that Chicago’s Zach Lavine is one possible option. Another is Toronto’s Pascal Siakam.  It’s no secret that the Bulls have been shopping LaVine for a while now, but they haven't been tempted to pull the trigger. Seemingly trapped in a no-man's land with Toronto, Siakam wants to continue on a new extension with a team that doesn't seem to be as excited about a long-term partnership. Either player could help Philadelphia get to the conference finals if Embiid can stay healthy for once.  Interestingly, the four contracts that the Sixers acquired through trade—Martin, Covington, Morris, and Batum—all have expiration dates. Therefore, the Sixers would be an easy partner for any team looking to clear their cap sheet and trade for a star during a rebuild. Are the Clippers Better Off? Other than Westbrook, the only play-making guard on the Clippers roster is Bones Hyland, a career 11-points-a-game scorer. Harden adds another strong playmaker who doesn’t have to score as much with Westbrook, George, and Leonard on the floor. But, is LA really better off? Consider that this makes Harden’s fourth team in the last three years. He initially wanted to be in Houston, Brooklyn, and Philadelphia but left all three on bad terms. Is LA next? Harden is a free agent at the end of this season. What would stop him from leaving after this season? The Clippers are also notorious for flaming out late in the postseason. The franchise has played in one Western Conference final (2021) and has never made the NBA Finals. Harden has played 14 seasons in the NBA. He has been to exactly one NBA Finals. His Oklahoma City Thunder got dumped by the Miami Heat in just five games. Is he really the answer for the Clippers? Time will tell.

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MACtion is back!

by Sean Murphy

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

The days are getting shorter and the nights are getting cooler and that can only mean one thing...the return of weeknight MACtion!The MAC will dot the weeknight college football schedule from now through Thanksgiving. Here's a quick look at some news and notes from around the conference with an eye on this week's matchups. Running with the BullsBuffalo has reeled off three ATS wins in its last four games and it has been getting it done on the ground, rushing for 123 or more yards in four of its last five contests. Thanks to an 0-4 start, the Bulls have their work cut out for them in terms of gaining Bowl eligibility. They'll need three wins in their final four games and that's daunting when you consider they're installed as more than a two-touchdown underdog on Tuesday in Toledo. The Rockets boast one of the nation's best rushing attacks, gaining an otherworldly 5.7 yards per rush on the season.Chips are downSpeaking of Bowl eligibility, Central Michigan has put itself in excellent position thanks to a 4-3 start but things haven't exactly gone swimmingly of late as it has dropped the cash for its backers in four straight games. A sputtering aerial attack has been the main culprit as the Chippewas have completed fewer than 20 passes for 181 yards or less in consecutive games entering Tuesday's home date against Northern Illinois. The good news is, Northern Illinois has gone a woeful 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as a favorite and lines up as a four-point fave on Tuesday.Flash in the pan?Kent State lit up the scoreboard last season but 2023 has been much different as the Golden Flashes have sputtered, scoring 14 points or less in four straight and five of their last six games, falling to a miserable 1-7 on the campaign. Not only have they struggled to move the football, they've had a difficult time simply maintaining possession, turning it over a whopping 18 times through eight games. Kent State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games against MAC opponents. Bowling for dollarsFew are paying much attention but Bowling Green has been a cash cow for its backers this season, going 5-2 ATS over its last seven games. The Falcons can gain Bowl eligibility with two wins in their last four games. They've been living off opponent miscues, forcing nine turnovers in the last two games alone. Up next is a date with Ball State on Wednesday, noting that BGSU has gone a long-term 38-17 ATS when coming off a win by 21 or more points, as is the case here. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, NBA and NHL Previews and Odds - 10/31/2023

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Oct 31, 2023

The Tuesday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, NBA, and NHL action.The tenth week in NCAAF college football begins with two games on national television between FBS opponents. Northern Illinois travels to Central Michigan on ESPNU at 7 PM ET. The Huskies are on a three-game winning streak after their 20-13 victory against  Eastern Michigan as an 11.5-point favorite on October 21st. The Chippewas lost for the second time in their last three games after a 24-17 upset loss at Ball State on October 21st. Northern Illinois is a 1.5-point road favorite with the total set at 45.5. Toledo hosts Buffalo on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM ET. The Rockets are on a seven-game winning streak after their 21-17 victory at Miami (OH) as a 2.5-point favorite on March 21st. The Bulls won for the third time in their last four games with a 24-6 win at Kent State as a 6.5-point favorite. Toledo is a 16-point favorite with an over/under of 52.5. Major League Baseball continues its postseason with Game 4 of the World Series on Fox at 8:03 PM ET. Texas took a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series with their 3-1 win on the road against Arizona on Monday. The Rangers turn to Andrew Heaney to pitch against the Diamondbacks’ Joe Mantiply. Both teams are priced as a -110 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The National Basketball Association has three games on its docket. The Cleveland Cavaliers host the New York Knicks on TNT at 7:40 PM ET. The Knicks lost for the second time in their last three games with a 96-87 loss at New Orleans on Saturday. The Cavaliers have lost two games in a row, with their 125-113 loss to Indiana as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. New York is a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 214.5. The Phoenix Suns play at home against the San Antonio Spurs on TNT at 10:10 PM ET. The Suns won for the second time in their last three games after their 126-104 victory against Utah as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Spurs have lost two of their first three games after a 123-83 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday. Phoenix is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 227.The Los Angeles Clippers host the Orlando Magic at 10:40 PM ET. The Clippers won their second game in their first three games with their victory against the Spurs on Sunday. The Magic had won two games in a row before their 106-103 loss in Los Angeles against the Lakers on Monday. Los Angeles is a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 220.5.The National Hockey League has two games on its slate. The Toronto Maple Leafs play at home against the Los Angeles Kings on ESPN at 8:07 PM ET. The Maple Leafs ended a three-game winning streak with their 3-2 loss at Nashville on Saturday. The Kings had won two games in a row before their 4-3 loss to Las Vegas on Friday. Toronto is a -140 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Vancouver Canucks are at home against the Nashville Predators at 10:07 PM ET. The Canucks had won three games in a row before their 4-3 loss to the New York Rangers on Friday. The Predators won their third game in their last four in their victory against the Maple Leafs. Vancouver is a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. 

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