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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NHL, NBA and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 11/30/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Nov 30, 2023

The Thursday sports card features NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action. Week 13 of the NFL regular season kicks off with one game. The Dallas Cowboys host the Seattle Seahawks on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET. The Cowboys are an 8.5-point favorite, with the total set at 47.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. The Cleveland Cavaliers play at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 219.5. Three more NBA games tip off at 7:40 PM ET. The Brooklyn Nets are at home against the Charlotte Hornets as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 227. The Miami Heat host the Indiana Pacers as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 239. The New York Knicks play at home against the Detroit Pistons as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 218.5. Four NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Chicago to play the Bulls as a 7.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 228. The Minnesota Timberwolves are at home against the Utah Jazz as a 10-point favorite with a total of 221.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Los Angeles Lakers as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 229. The Atlanta Hawks play in San Antonio against the Spurs as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 245.5. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the Los Angeles Clippers at 10:10 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227.5. The National Hockey League has 14 games on its slate. Six NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. The Tampa Bay Lightning are at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Seattle Kraken as a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Boston Bruins play at home against the San Jose Sharks as a -470 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Detroit Red Wings are at home against the Chicago Blackhawks as a -225 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Florida Panthers visit Montreal to play the Canadiens as a -225 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The New Jersey Devils plays at Philadelphia against the Flyers as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Carolina Hurricanes host the New York Islanders at 7:37 PM ET as a -192 money-line favorite with a total of 6. Three more NHL games begin at 8:07 PM ET. The Nashville Predators play at home against the Minnesota Wild as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The St. Louis Blues are at home against the Buffalo Sabres as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers play in Winnipeg against the Jets as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two NHL games start at 9:07 PM ET. The Colorado Avalanche are in Arizona to play the Coyotes as a -205 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Dallas Stars play in Calgary against the Flames as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Two more games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 PM ET. The Washington Capitals travel to Anaheim to play the Ducks, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 6. The Vancouver Canucks host the Vegas Golden Knights as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has three games on national television. Florida Atlantic plays at home against Liberty on ESPNU at 6 PM ET as a 7-point favorite with a total of 147. Butler is at home against Texas Tech on FS1 at 6:30 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 139. Creighton plays at Oklahoma State on ESPN2 at 9 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 142. 

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Is Justin Fields Making the Case for the Chicago Bears to Not Draft a Quarterback?

by Team Del Genio

Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

The Minnesota Vikings had been one of the hottest teams in the NFL in the middle of the season going into their clash with the Chicago Bears for Monday Night Football. They had won five games in a row before their narrow 21-20 loss at Denver last week. The Bears had lost three of their last four games and come into this game trailing the Vikings by three games in the NFC North standings. Yet the oddsmakers installed Minnesota as only a field goal or so favorite in this game despite this game being played at the Vikings’ U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings beat the Bears last month by a 19-13 score in the first game between these teams at Soldier Field. The oddsmakers were communicating that if these two teams would play on a neutral field, the point spread difference would be close to a pick ‘em after eliminating the three or so points for home-field advantage. Even when these teams played a month ago, the oddsmakers installed Minnesota as a three-point road favorite, despite a 1-4 record at the time. The Vikings’ victory in that game began their recent five-game winning streak. It was a remarkable point spread with the oddsmakers seeing something the betting public was not, and it was one of the primary reasons we tapped Chicago as our NFC Game of the Month in that game. The Bears pulled the upset, 12-9, to redeem our support.We saw a few intriguing things with Chicago, and it started with the play of Justin Fields who is quietly making a strong statement that he should be a starting quarterback in the league. In his last four games (including the game against Minnesota when he got knocked out of the game with a hand injury that kept him out for four games) before that Monday Night game, Fields had completed 65 of 97 passes for a 67.0% completion percentage. He had nine touchdown passes during that span with only two interceptions. He had passed for 844 yards in those four games with an 8.7 yards per attempt. He had added another 232 yards with a 5.7 yards per carry when running the ball on an average of ten times per game in those four games. He was playing better than the Vikings’ Josh Dobbs. The Bears had a 1-4 record in games decided by one possession including their 31-26 loss on the road at Detroit last week in a game they should have won. Chicago won the first down battle by a 25-23 margin, and they were close to even in yardage (334-338) despite the game being played at Ford Field. They forced four turnovers. The Bears had covered the point spread in four of their last six games after the first month of the season. They were an underrated team.While Chicago won the game, their offense sputtered. The Bears had only 317 yards of offense. They settled for four field goals with three drives stalling inside the Vikings 22-yard line. Fields’ stat line was okay as he completed 27 of 37 passes for 217 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions. He ran the ball another 12 times for 59 yards. Yet he was responsible for both of Chicago’s lost fumbles, with one of them his fault for not protecting himself as a runner.       Fields numbers in his last five games still look pretty good. He has completed 92 of 134 passes for a 68.6% completion percentage. He had passed for 1061 yards in those five games with a 7.9 yards per attempt. He has nine touchdown passes during that span with only two interceptions. He has added another 291 yards with a 5.5 yards per carry when running the ball on an average of ten times per game in those five games. Yet it appears the coaching staff has made the decision that Fields cannot be trusted to make decisions with the football down the field. Facing the Vikings’ defensive coordinator Brian Flores means dealing with the most blitz-dependent defense in the league. In what became a painful-to-watch display, Chicago offensive coordinator Luke Getsy continually dialed up bubble screen after bubble screen to help Fields get the ball out quickly in the face of the potential blitz. Unfortunately for the Bears offense, this tactic became predictable very quickly yet Getsy rarely changed things up. A critic could make the case that Getsy may not be one of the best offensive coordinators in the NFL, yet every offensive coordinator is familiar with a vertical passing game. Perhaps he was directed by head coach Matt Eberflus, but it was clear that Getsy had limited options that he was comfortable with regarding how Fields could handle the blitz. Some of his rushing numbers may be the result of bailing on plays too quickly because he is not processing third or even second reads in the passing game. His early season struggles might be the result of his failure to execute his second or third reads in the passing game. His “fantasy” numbers have improved only because he is giving up on plays to move the ball with his legs again. So, thankfully, the Bears pulled off the victory and our read on the oddsmakers line was correct. Yet it is hard to be optimistic about the future for Fields, at least with Chicago. With the Bears owning Carolina’s first-round pick draft pick, Chicago is poised to have two top-ten draft picks in the spring with that Panthers selection perhaps the prized number one pick in the draft. It is hard to imagine that the Bears would forego the opportunity to choose their favorite quarterback in the college draft pool and stick with a quarterback in Fields who they did not trust to throw the ball downfield with against the Vikings. Chicago could always draft a quarterback while allowing Fields to compete for the starting job. He still shows flashes of brilliance. However, the internal momentum to allow their new rookie quarterback to take the job and run with it will likely be overwhelming, and Fields’ stock will only continue to fall. Trading  Fields away sooner rather than later would probably bring back the most value, given how these events are likely to shake out. Good luck - TDG.   

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Early Look at ACC Basketball

by Nelly's Sports

Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

Early Look at ACC Basketball  A preview of conference season in college basketball comes in early December in the ACC, with most teams playing one early season non-conference game before a break for finals and the holidays ahead of the resumption of conference play in early January. Here is a quick snapshot of five of the ACC teams in action and what to expect in the first conference games of the season in the ACC.  The Favorite – Duke: Replacing a legendary coach is not an easy task and John Scheyer’s first season leading Duke featured 27 wins and an ACC tournament title. Duke lost to Tennessee in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament in a difficult 4/5 game, however. The Blue Devils often cycle through NBA prospects, but this year’s team returns a great deal of last season’s production with Kyle Filipowski, Mark Mitchell, Tyrese Proctor, and Jeremy Roach all back in action alongside four talented freshmen additions. Duke split big early tests losing to Arizona and defeating Michigan State and will be favored to start 1-0 in ACC play playing at Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils have a rather favorable early season ACC schedule before what could be a challenging February and March.   Prove It Game – Pittsburgh vs. Clemson: Pittsburgh basketball was a regular force in the 2000s under Jamie Dixon, but the program hit a tough patch and returned to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016 last season. Now in his sixth season at Pittsburgh, Jeff Capel has been given time to build the program back up, delivering a 24-12 season in 2022-23 that included a 14-6 ACC record. The Panthers barely made the field as a First Four #11 seed but won that game and then beat Iowa State in the Round of 64 for a successful run. Only two starters return this season led by Blake Hinson, but transfer Ishmael Leggett (Rhode Island) has stepped into a big role while Carlton Carrington could be one of the top freshmen in the ACC. A 5-2 start has featured losses in both major conference tests vs. a pair of SEC teams and Pittsburgh needs to take care of business at home in the ACC opener vs. a good Clemson team to be taken seriously an ACC threat again this season.  Breakthrough Team – Virgina Tech: When Mike Young was hired at Virginia Tech it was considered a great pick-up for the program that had performed well under Buzz Williams. Young had been very successful at Wofford, and it seemed like his system would work well in the ACC. Young’s teams have been steady but his ACC results have been marginal, outside of going 9-4 in the abbreviated 2020-21 season. Young’s only career NCAA Tournament win was at Wofford as the Hokies lost in the Round of 64 in 2021 and 2022, with the 2022 appearance only granted by a surprise run to win the ACC Tournament. Last season’s team was a great disappointment, going just 19-15 overall and just 8-12 in ACC play despite looking like a higher quality team in an 11-1 start and picking up high-profile wins over North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia early in the ACC season. This year’s team has experience and continuity from last season and while the team ran out of gas in its third tournament game in Florida last week, losing badly to Florida Atlantic, wins over Boise State and Iowa State have provided a solid non-conference base. If the 3-point shooting numbers improve slightly towards the typical levels of Young’s teams, this could be a very competitive team in ACC play.  Transition Team – Georgia Tech: Josh Pastner was once considered one of the great up-and-coming coaches as an assistant with Arizona. His seven years at Memphis delivered a few highlights but his seven seasons at Georgia Tech were a great disappointment, only making the NCAA Tournament in the shortened 2020-21 season. The program moved on after last season and brought in a high-profile hire in former NBA star Damon Stoudamire who coached at Pacific for five seasons before returning to the NBA as an assistant with Boston the past two years. The hire did allow the Yellow Jackets to keep a few quality players from last season’s team, notably Miles Kelly and Kyle Sturdivant while a mix of transfers also gives the roster a solid group with good size and experience. So far this season the results have been mixed with an unfortunate loss to Mass-Lowell while blown out at Cincinnati, but last week Georgia Tech beat Mississippi State. The transition for the Yellow Jackets gets a major test this week hosting Duke in the ACC opener.   The Sleeper – Clemson: Brad Brownell has been at Clemson since 2010-11 for rare longevity in today’s era of college basketball. The Tigers made the Sweet 16 in 2018 but haven’t won a tournament game in any other season, only making the field two other times as the administration has been incredibly patient. In fairness, last season’s 14-6 squad had a legitimate gripe about being a bubble casualty as finishing tied for 2nd in the ACC and not making the tournament was a rare occurrence. Four of this year’s starters were on that team including PJ Hall and Chase Hunter who are all-ACC caliber players. Syracuse transfer Joseph Girard is also a great addition and all three of those players have hit over 40 percent from 3-point range so far this season. There is great size, depth, and experience on this group and the 6-0 non-conference start has been impressive, facing only one team outside the nation’s top 150 and capping off the strong November with a road win at Alabama this week. Brownell teams are usually very good defensively but have been marginal on offense in recent years. This year’s team has been a great outside shooting team and is a group that has the chance to reward Clemson’s wait for Brownell to elevate the program to a big postseason run. 

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Early Look at Big Ten Basketball

by Nelly's Sports

Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

Early Look at Big Ten Basketball  A taste of conference season in college basketball comes in early December in the Big Ten with most teams playing two early season non-conference games before a break for finals and the holidays ahead of the resumption of conference play in early January. Here is a look at how a five of the Big Ten teams have performed and what to expect in the first Big Ten conference action of the season.  The Favorite – Purdue: The Boilermakers are on a season of redemption after last season’s early NCAA tournament exit and the start could not be more impressive, sweeping three high-profile games in Hawaii against Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette over Thanksgiving week. Purdue is +150 to win the Big Ten as a clear favorite in the conference after winning the league by three games last season going 15-5. One of those losses was at Northwestern, where the Boilermakers head on December 1 for their Big Ten opener. Purdue will also host Iowa December 4 looking to start the conference season 2-0 before heavyweight non-conference games vs. Alabama and Arizona in mid-December.   Prove It Game – Wisconsin at Michigan State: After missing the NCAA Tournament last season, Wisconsin and head coach Greg Gard are in line for an important season. The Badgers have had mixed results in the non-conference season, losing to Tennessee and Providence but defeating Virginia and SMU. A big home test is this weekend hosting Marquette before the Big Ten opener in East Lansing. Wisconsin plays only one December Big Ten game and will play at Arizona the following weekend for a grueling run on the schedule. The Badgers have good returning experience while St. John’s transfer AJ Storr and freshman John Blackwell have been impressive additions as Wisconsin looks capable of climbing back to the top tier of the conference, but they need to prove it with at least one big win in December.   Breakthrough Team - Nebraska: Nebraska hasn’t had a winning season since going 19-17 under Tim Miles in 2018-19 and last made the NCAA Tournament in 2014. It has been a slow climb, but Fred Hoiberg’s team has improved in record every season since he took over, going 2-18 in Big Ten play in his first season in Lincoln through turning in a competitive 9-11 conference run last season. This year’s team is already 7-0 in non-conference play and grades as a top 50 caliber team by many measures for the first time in many years. The schedule so far has been very light however as the best win came narrowly at home over Duquesne while Nebraska has only one win away form home. In the first two weeks of December Nebraska has a non-conference test vs. Creighton before a winnable Big Ten opener at Minnesota. The Cornhuskers then host Michigan State before another tough non-conference game at Kansas State as this will be a big two-week stretch for the program to deliver a few wins to help deliver a breakthrough season.  Transition Team – Penn State: Stepping into a tough situation, Micah Shrewsberry did a great job at Penn State for two seasons and the Nittany Lions made a nice run last March, making the Big Ten tournament final and then winning a NCAA Tournament game. The success led Shrewsberry to take over at Notre Dame and Penn State hired VCU head coach Mike Rhoades. A 4-0 start through a light path has soured on this year’s team, a group that has almost no returning experience from last season. Against three top 100 teams in tournament action in Florida Penn State went 0-3, allowing 89, 88, and 86 points, including bitterly losing by double-digits against the VCU team Rhoades used to coach. Penn State has a pair of tricky December games in Big Ten play, opening at Maryland and then hosting Ohio State with getting a split likely important towards a chance at a successful season.  The Sleeper – Illinois: The resume isn’t there for Illinois right now as the 5-1 start doesn’t include a top 100 win, but the Illini looked the part in a seven-point home loss to highly-ranked Marquette. The defense has brilliant numbers as one of the nation’s leaders in many important categories featuring impressive height and tremendous depth and experience. Transfers Marcus Domask (Southern Illinois) and Quincy Guerrier (Oregon) have joined Terrance Shannon, Ty Rodgers, and Luke Goode for a quality lineup and the Illini should get Coleman Hawkins and Niccolo Moretti back from injury at some point this season. Illinois has only one early season Big Ten game playing at Rutgers next weekend for a game the team likely needs to prove legitimate in this race. Illinois will then get non-conference tests vs. Florida Atlantic and Tennessee as a squad that could be a threat to make a run in the Big Ten race, while looking for a fourth straight NCAA Tournament trip for Brad Underwood. Illinois won a share of the conference title two seasons ago before finishing sixth last season but is currently listed third in the marketplace behind Purdue and Michigan State. 

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College Football 2023-24 Preview, Part Five -- 133 Questions and Thoughts for 133 FBS Teams

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each FBS team takes about 30 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.AKRON: Is the improvement in the second half of the season under first-year head coach Joe Moorhead sustainable heading into his second season? After generating only 4.9 Yards-Per-Play in their first nine games, the Zips averaged 5.7 YPP in their last three contests. On defense, Akron limited their final three opponents to 4.3 YPP after surrendering 6.6 YPP in their first nine games. Despite a 1-7 record in the Mid-American Conference, the Zips outgained their opponents by +41 net Yards-Per-Game — and they outgained their conference rivals by +109 YPG in their last three contests. Turnovers played a large role in holding them back as they ranked tied for third in the FBS with a -13 net turnover margin. They had a 1-5 record in games decided by one scoring possession. Moorehead has 15 starters back from that group. ARIZONA STATE: The Herm Edwards era unceremoniously ended after a 1-2 start last year amidst being a target of NCAA investigations for recruiting violations. With a mass exodus of players in the transfer portal, the program has been sitting on a ticking time bomb that finally went off. After hitting rock bottom with a 3-9 record, Oregon co-offensive coordinator and former Arizona State graduate Kenny Dillingham takes over as the new head coach. The 33-year-old faces a massive rebuild despite 13 starters back from last season. There are at least 48 new players not the roster this season including 32 players coming in from the transfer portal. ARKANSAS STATE: The Red Wolves return 11 starters from their team that finished just 3-9 in the third season under head coach Butch Jones. The former Tennessee head coach has brought in the top recruiting class in the Sun Belt Conference in two straight seasons — but those players have yet to change the results on the field. With a 9-26 record in his three seasons, this is a crucial season where results need to be seen with Jones clearly on the hot seat. ARMY: How successful will the Black Knights transition to a zone option offensive attack out of the shotgun formation? Head coach Jeff Monken is abandoning the triple option formation that has defined the offensive identity of the service academies after the recent change in the cut-blocking rules has hampered the effectiveness of the triple option scheme. Army’s scoring average fell from 32.8 Points-Per-Game to 28.6 PPG last season after that rule change. While the Black Knights finished the season with a 6-6 record, two of their victories were against FCS teams and two more of their wins were against the lowly Massachusetts and Connecticut. BALL STATE: Was the Cardinals’ Mid-American Conference championship in 2020 simply an aberration in the unusual COVID-impacted season? Under head coach Mike Neu, Ball State had six straight losing seasons before that breakout campaign — but they have not had a winning season since with an 11-14 record overall and a 7-9 conference mark in the last two years. Neu is on the hot seat with just the one winning season in his previous seven years as the Cardinals head coach. Fourteen starters are back from the group that finished 5-7 last year — but they lost some of their best players. Quarterback John Paddock transferred to Illinois while running back Carson Steele left for UCLA. They lost their top two receivers to graduation — and they are replacing three defensive backs who are now on NFL rosters. BOISE STATE: The Broncos come off a 10-4 season after a 35-32 win against North Texas in the Frisco Bowl. But after going 8-0 in conference play in the regular season, Boise State got upset at home by Fresno State by a 28-16 score in the Mountain West Championship Game. Third-year head coach Andy Avalos returns 14 starters from that team including eight super seniors playing in their sixth season. The offense has nine starters back led by sophomore quarterback Taylen Green who won the Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year Award. In their ten games with Green as their starting quarterback, the Broncos generated 428.4 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 32.5 Points-Per-Game. The defense only returns five starters and just nine of the 18 players who logged-in 250 or more snaps. Depth is a concern on that side of the ball — defensive coordinator Spencer Danielson needs the transfer players brought in to meet expectations. BOSTON COLLEGE: Did head coach Jeff Hafley learn the wrong lessons after some initial success using the transfer portal? The former Ohio State defensive coordinator landed quarterback Phil Jurkovec as a transfer from Notre Dame in his first season with the Eagles. But after some initial success with the portal, Hafley may have sacrificed the culture of his program as now more players are leaving than he is bringing in as he enters his fourth season. Hafley was likely too dependent on the portal to offer some quick fixes as the recruiting classes from the high school ranks have waned. After a 3-9 season where they finished 2-6 in conference play with ACC opponents outgaining them by -81.6 net Yards-Per-Game, Hafley is on the hot seat. BOWLING GREEN: Will the Falcons continue to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation? Last year, they upset Marshall but got upset by Eastern Kentucky and beaten by Ohio by 24 points. They were also fortunate in an upset victory against a Toledo team using a backup quarterback looking ahead to the MAC Championship Game.  How do we judge a team that was 5-2 in games decided by one scoring possession while pulling off four upset victories but getting upset twice themselves along the way? Head coach Scott Loeffler has 13 starters back from that group that finished 6-7 overall but 5-3 in the conference. BUFFALO: Why did this program not bring in a single transfer from an FBS program while losing several players — is that a sign that third-year head coach Maurice Linguist is comfortable with the roster and culture he is building or is it a harbinger that this team is going to take a step back from their 7-6 campaign last year? I thought Linguist had been doing a great job using the transfer portal to bring in Power Five conference players to fill holes in the starting lineup on both sides of the ball — so the lack of activity was surprising.  The Bulls bring back only ten starters from last year’s team that beat Georgia Southern by a 23-21 score in the Camellia Bowl.COLORADO STATE: Can the Rams make another jump in head coach Jay Norvell’s second season as they did in the second half of last year? Norvell brought 11 players with him last season when he left Nevada after five seasons -- but he was down to only 59 scholarship players at one point last year after cleaning house. In their first six games, they only averaged 243.7 Yards-Per-Game. But the team eventually bought in to his expectations and the teaching of the coaching staff as the Rams outgained their last four opponents by +76 Yards-Per-Game despite a 3-9 overall record. The offense improved to 324.2 total YPG in their last six games while the defense held their Mountain West Conference opponents to 20 Points-Per-Game and just 325 YPG. Now after signing perhaps the best freshman class in program history, Norvell is back up to 85 scholarship players — and 15 starters return. BOSTON COLLEGE: Did head coach Jeff Hafley learn the wrong lessons after some initial success using the transfer portal? The former Ohio State defensive coordinator landed quarterback Phil Jurkovec as a transfer from Notre Dame in his first season with the Eagles. But after some initial success with the portal, Hafley may have sacrificed the culture of his program as now more players are leaving than he is bringing in as he enters his fourth season. Hafley was likely too dependent on the portal to offer some quick fixes as the recruiting classes from the high school ranks have waned. After a 3-9 season where they finished 2-6 in conference play with ACC opponents outgaining them by -81.6 net Yards-Per-Game, Hafley is on the hot seat.EASTERN MICHIGAN: Can the Eagles continue to overachieve under head coach Chris Creighton? Eastern Michigan got outgained in Mid-American Conference play by -9.0 Yards-Per-Game but still posted a 5-3 conference record. They pulled off five upset wins — and they had a 4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession which helped them finish 9-4 with their second bowl victory in program history in their 41-27 victory against San Jose State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Critics can continue to claim these are outlier results but the Eagles have pulled off 22 upset victories in the last six seasons. Entering his tenth year as head coach, Eastern Michigan has seen 53 of their last 73 games decided by one scoring possession.   FLORIDA ATLANTIC: Former Texas head coach Tom Herman takes over running the Owls as they move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference. Eighteen starters return from last year’s group that finished 5-7. The defense ranked 106th in the nation by giving up 424.8 total Yards-Per-Game but 18 of the 19 players who were on the field for at least 250 snaps are back. Herman added another nine players in the transfer portal in an attempt to improve the talent base. He also used the portal to upgrade the quarterback room by bringing in Daniel Richardson from Central Michigan and Casey Thompson from Nebraska (and who played for Herman at Texas). FAU underperformed expectations last season — but the upgrade in conferences may be difficult for a program that has lost 27 games in a row against Power Five conference opponents. GEORGIA: The Bulldogs won their second-straight national championship last year by completing their perfect 15-0 campaign with a 65-7 blowout victory against TCU in the National Championship Game. Head coach Kirby Smart now attempts to lead Georgia to become the first college football team to win three straight national titles since Minnesota accomplished this task in 1934-1936. Thirteen starters return to begin that question — one of those players is not their starting quarterback the last two years with Stetson Bennett on to the NFL. The offensive line may be the best in the country. The defense returns seven starters and 12 of the 16 players who logged-in at least 200 snaps. While the blue-chippers remain seemingly a recyclable energy in Athens, the drain of NFL-ready talent may be beginning to take its toll with flashes of complacency on that side of the ball. LSU and Ohio State combined to score 71 points against them before they shut down an overmatched Horned Frogs offense. INDIANA: Head coach Tom Allen is on the hot seat in his seventh season with the Hoosiers. Since producing a surprising 6-2 record in the 2020 season impacted by COVID, Indiana has lost 18 of their 24 games — including 16 losses in their 18 games against fellow Big Ten competition. The Hoosiers are losing in the transfer portal wars. Recruiting has suffered until last year, when he pulled in a top-30 class in 2022. This year’s team lost 30 players who were either graduating seniors or who entered the portal. Allen did bring in 25 transfer players, including 16 on the defensive side of the ball. IOWA STATE: Does the Cyclones’ recent inability to win close games due for regression — or is it systemic a deeper problem inside head coach Matt Campbell’s program? Iowa State has lost 10 of their last 11 games decided by one scoring possession. They had a 1-6 record in one-score games last season. They finished the year with a 4-8 record despite outgaining their opponents by +84 net Yards-Per-Game — and in Big 12 play, they had a 1-8 record despite ranking sixth in the conference by outgaining their opponents by +52 net YPG. Turnovers played a role in holding them back as did an inefficient offense inside the Red Zone. But the lack of athleticism on the roster may simply get exposed at key moments of the game. After seven years, perhaps Campbell and his coaching staff deserve credit for an overachieving roster — but without NFL talent like quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Breece Hall (and David Montgomery before him), the talent simply isn’t there to execute against the better teams in the Big 12.   MISSISSIPPI: Ole Miss opened last season with a 7-1 mark before stumbling down the stretch with five losses in their last six contests including their final four games after a 42-25 loss to Texas Tech in the Texas Bowl. Despite a 4-4 record in the SEC, they outgained their conference opponents by +79.4 net Yards-Per-Game. The Rebels ranked eighth in the nation by generating 496.4 total YPG — but their defense let them down in the second half of the season by giving up 35 Points-Per-Game in their last seven contests. Those final seven opponents averaged 211 rushing YPG. Head coach Lane Kiffin hired Pete Golding as his new defensive coordinator who had been the defensive coordinator at Alabama for the last five seasons. Seven starters return on that side of the ball. The offense returns nine starters led by junior Jaxson Dart at quarterback. The former USC transfer passed for 2974 yards with 20 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions and he added another 614 rushing yards. Despite the 16 starters, Kiffin may be relying too much on the transfer portal at the expense of building a culture that can compete with the elite members of the conference. NORTH CAROLINA: The Tar Heels had a 9-1 record after ten games but lost their last four contests to end the season including a 39-10 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game and then a 28-27 loss to Oregon in the Holiday Bowl. Head coach Mach Brown has turned the program around that he returned to five years ago after hitting rock bottom in 2019 with a 2-9 record. Yet it still seems as if his teams are not meeting up to their expectations in the ACC. The nine victories last year were the most the Tar Heels have won in Brown’s second tenure with the program. I have questions about the underlying culture. Is Brown too dependent on the transfer portal? Players on the defensive side of the ball are not being developed to meet their recruiting rankings. North Carolina ranked 115th in the nation by allowing 436.5 total Yards-Per-Game. The offense scored only 20.1 Points-Per-Game in their last four games which was nearly half the 40.1 PPG they generated in their first ten games. Seventeen starters return led by ACC Player of the Year Drake May at quarterback. Yet will many be surprised if, once again, the defense disappoints and the team fails to beat the upper echelon of the ACC?   NORTHERN ILLINOIS: Did the Huskies underachieve last season — or is inconsistency seemingly the consistent characteristic for this team under head coach Thomas Hammock? After a 5-7 season in his first year with the program,  Northern Illinois was 0-6 in the COVID 2020 season. They responded by winning the Mid-American Conference championship in 2021 before taking a few steps back last year with a 3-9 record despite returning 18 starters. Hammock can point to the slew of injuries his team suffered. And despite a 2-6 record in conference play, they were only outgained by -2.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The Huskies got upset six times and lost four of their six games decided by one scoring possession. Fifteen starters return including seventh-year senior Rocky Lombardi who quarterbacked their title run two years ago.         NORTH TEXAS: Did the powers at be at North Texas push the panic button too soon when firing head coach Sean Littrell despite him leading the Mean Green to the Conference USA Championship Game? After their 48-27 loss on the road against UTSA in that contest, Littrell was let go with critics citing his 0-5 record in bowl games. But remember that he inherited a 1-11 team that had not played in a bowl game since 2014 — and he got them to six bowl games in his seven years with the program. Now as the team leaves Conference USA for the most difficult American Athletic Conference, they bring in a rookie head coach at the FBS level in Eric Morris. The Mike Leach disciple was the offensive coordinator at Washington State last season after a successful four-year run as the head coach at Incarnate Word. Fifteen starters return from last year’s team — and they brought in junior quarterback Chandler Rogers from UL-Monroe in the transfer portal. But what are the expectations in Denton for this football team — and are they reasonable?  OKLAHOMA: Brent Venables as an assistant coach for 29 seasons which included 13 years as the Sooners’ defensive coordinator under Bob Stoops. He returned to Norman as the head coach last season with high expectations while replacing Lincoln Riley who went out west to USC. Oklahoma had not lost for than two games in seven straight seasons. Along the way, Venables felt compelled to make his feelings known about Deion Sanders’ Colorado team and the negative impact on team culture was his aggressive use of the transfer portal. Yet a year later and after a 6-7 record where the Sooners failed to finish the season ranked in the national polls for the first time since 2014, guess who changed his tune on the transfer portal? Venables took full advantage of the transfer portal with 63 new players on the roster. And the head coach bemoaning the importance of continuity when it comes to culture had overseen 56 of the 71 players that suited up for the Cheez-It Bowl (a 35-32 loss to Florida State) leave the program in one way or another. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is one of seven starters to return on offense — but that unit lost several key player makers. On the other side of the ball, there remains the question of whether the talent exists — especially in the front seven — to operate the same schemes that Venables had so much success with recently with Clemson. After their first losing season since 1998, the question will also be raised that while Venables can talk the talk as a head coach, can he walk the walk with these new responsibilities in the twilight of his career?RUTGERS: The Scarlet Knights return 15 starters from a group that finished 4-8 last season. Since Greg Schiano’s return to coaching a program that previously served as their head coach for 11 seasons, he has overseen just a 12-22 record in three seasons. The Rutgers current culture has been described as “stressful” which is perhaps not the best way to compete in the Brave New World of NIL and the transfer portal. It may be telling that Schiano only brought in eight transfer players. The defense returns eight players from a unit that ranked 37th in the nation by giving up only 349.7 total Yards-Per-Game. But Rutgers only won one of their nine games in Big Ten play — and they got outgained by -133 YPG against conference opponents. SOUTH FLORIDA: Is the challenge for this program too big for rookie head coach Alex Goresh? The Bulls have won only four games in the last three seasons after their 1-11 campaign last season. They have a 1-33 record against FBS programs since 2019. Not only were they winless in their eight games against American Athletic Conference foes last season, but they got outgained by -116 Yards-Per-Game in those contests. Goresh comes in from Tennessee after serving as the offensive coordinator the last two seasons (albeit with the Volunteers’ head coach Josh Huepel calling the plays). Thirteen starters return from last year’s team but only four on the offensive side of the ball in a unit that was hit hard in the transfer market. The defense has nine starters back plus another 11 transfers in an attempt to upgrade the talent to a unit that ranked 130th in the nation by allowing 516.6 YPG.                       TCU: The Horned Frogs were a great story last year as they took on the role of Cinderella to reach the National Championship Game under first-year head coach Sonny Dykes — before harsh reality set in when facing the reigning National Champion Georgia Bulldogs. Dykes was masterful in using the transfer portal last season — but is it simply too much to ask for him to pull off that trick again given all the losses this team has experienced since that 65-7 loss to Georgia? The Horned Frogs return only 10 starters after losing eight players to the NFL draft and another three players to the NFL as undrafted free agents. The team also lost their brilliant offensive coordinator Garrett Riley to the same job at Clemson. Dykes is recruiting the State of Texas well — and he seems to be winning with the transfer portal. But the losses may be simply overwhelming for a team whose magical run included a 6-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession.  TENNESSEE: The Volunteers return 12 starters from the team that finished 11-2 after their 31-14 victory against Clemson in the Orange Bowl. Head coach Josh Heupel’s explosive offensive scored 50 or more points six times including their 52 points against the tough Alabama defense. But it is not a given that sixth-year senior quarterback Joe Milton can step in and maintain that high level of proficiency. Milton has lost the starting quarterback job twice in his career — once at Michigan and then here at Tennessee when he was the presumptive starter before getting overtaken by Hendon Hooker who was drafted into the NFL last spring. Milton has a canon of an arm — but he is not very mobile and accuracy and decision-making remain concerns in the passing game. The Vols defense returns seven starters and 14 of the 21 players who logged-in at least 200 snaps. Defensive coordinator Tim Banks is overseeing an aggressive unit that registered 27 sacks and forced 22 turnovers. They also ranked 20th in the nation by only giving up 115.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game. But their pass defense ranked 126th in the nation by surrendering 289.5 passing YPG — and they ranked 90th overall in total defense by giving up 405.3 total YPG. TEXAS: Head coach Steve Sarkisian continues to bring in great recruiting classes — but the results on the field have only produced a 13-12 record in his first two seasons in Austin. Sixteen starters are back from the team that finished 8-5 last year after a 27-20 loss to Washington in the Alamo Bowl. The Longhorns lost five of their seven games decided by one scoring possession last year. The talent level remains very high for this Texas roster — but the issue remains the results on the field. Is redshirt sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers really the guy? His best performances were against unranked opponents — and he only completed 29 of 74 passes (39.2%) of his passes of more than 15 air yards, ranking 80th in the FBS last season, Five-star freshman Arch Manning breathes down his neck to take his job if he slips up. TEXAS A&M: After five losses in the SEC by six points or less, the culture that head coach Jimbo Fisher needs to be questioned. Despite consistent top-10 recruiting classes and signing a 10-year, $95 million extension in 2021, this program seems to be moving in the wrong direction after their 9-1 campaign in 2020-21. The Aggies did upset an Alabama team ranked number one in the nation at the time the next season, but that team finished 8-4. Last year’s team posted a 5-7 record with only two victories in their eight SEC games is an unacceptable result given all the talent recruited and bought to play at College Station. In hindsight, perhaps Fisher’s aggressiveness in attracting recruits with NIL money contributed to the problem he now has. His solution for this crucial year was to bring into controversial new coordinators. Former Maryland head coach D.J. Durkin runs the defense as his career moves forward after one of his players died from heat stroke during his time with the Terrapins. It was later reported that the atmosphere in that program was rife with intimidation and abuse. Durkin’s rap sheet is mild when compared to that of Bobby Petrino in his various tenures at the University of Arkansas and Louisville as well as his brief stint in the NFL with the Atlanta Falcons. Fisher has given up the play-calling to accommodate Petrino. With this powder keg of a coaching situation in this environment, what could go wrong? The Aggies' offense remains plagued by ineffective offensive lines. They ranked 100th in the nation by scoring only 22.8 Points-Per-Game. After ranking no worse than 32nd in the nation in total defense while giving up no more than 348.4 YPG in the first four years under Phillips, Texas A&M surrendered 365.1 YPG which ranked 51st in the nation. Perhaps the All-Star collection of college football minds can reverse these trends. Or, perhaps Fisher does not survive the season if the losses continue to pile up. TEXAS STATE: Former Incarnate Word head coach G.J. Kinne takes over a program that has not had a winning season since 2014. In the previous four seasons under head coach Jake Spavital, the Bobcats were just 13-31. Kinne led Incarnate Word to the FCS semifinals with a high-powered offense that generated 51.5 Points-Per-Game and 581 Yards-Per-Game. The former Tulsa quarterback and then later the co-offensive coordinator at Central Florida wants to dictate tempo on offense by embracing fast and slow tempo depending on the game situation. He relied on over 40 transfers in the portal (including seven from Incarnate Word) to join a team returning 11 starters. Texas State finished 4-8 last year but they lost six of their eight games in Sun Belt play while getting outgained by -88 YPG which ranked 12th in the conference. TOLEDO: Will the Rockets’ Mid-American Conference championship last year open the doors for them to begin consistently dominating the conference? Granted, that was the second MAC title in head coach Jason Candle’s seven seasons with the program — but there has been a sentiment that he has underachieved relative to the quality of his recruiting classes during his tenure that have usually been the top of the league. Toledo reached the MAC Championship Game to then beat Ohio by a 17-7 score despite four of their losses being by seven points or less — with three of those losses in conference play. Critics of Candle will point to four upset losses as continuing evidence that his teams too often fall flat. TROY: Is regression all but inevitable for the Trojans after a 12-2 campaign where they beat Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game before an 18-12 victory against UTSA in the Cure Bowl? Under first-year head coach Jon Sumrall, Troy posted a 6-1 record in games decided by one possession or less — and they pulled off four upset wins. Only 12 starters return from that team with the defense replacing five of their top eight tacklers along with defensive coordinator Shiel Wood who took the same job at Tulane. But nine of the 16 players who took at least 300 snaps are back this season — and the offense will once again be led by senior quarterback Gunnar Watson and All-Sun Belt Conference running back Kimani Vidal.  UL-LAFAYETTE: Was their 6-7 campaign under first-year head coach Mike Desmormeaux a blip on the radar a blip or a sign of things to come after their previous head coach Billy Napier left to take the Florida job? The Ragin’ Cajuns did outgain their Sun Belt Conference opponents by +36 Yards-Per-Game despite a 4-4 mark in conference play. They lost all four of their games decided by one scoring possession including a 23-16 loss to Houston in the Independence Bowl. However, the roster is bleeding players away in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball — including two starters on defense after spring practice. UTSA: How will the Roadrunners adjust to the upgrade in competition in their move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference? They come off a Conference USA title after completing their perfect 8-0 conference record with a 48-27 victory against North Texas in the conference championship game. UTSA has won 20 of their last 23 games against Conference USA opponents — but they are just 11-7 in their last 18 games against teams outside that conference. They have lost ten games in a row against ranked opponents. Sixteen starters return this season including their quarterback Frank Harris who will be playing in his seventh year with the program. He leads an offense that ranked 12th in the nation last year by generating 476.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The defense has eight starters and 11 players back that logged in 300 or more snaps last season. VIRGINIA: Is the jury out already on second-year head coach Tony Elliott? The longtime Clemson offensive coordinator struggled in his first season with the Cavaliers with a 3-7 record — and now he is dealing with a host of challenges on and off the field. Elliott lacked a professional demeanor by ripping his assistant coaches in post-game press conferences as the team lost six of their final seven games. Certainly, the decision to cut their season short after the gun shooting tragedy on campus that directly impacted the team then complicated matters. Virginia seems to be losing in the transfer portal market. Senior quarterback Brennan Armstrong left for North Carolina State — and Elliott brought in Tony Muskett from Monmouth as his replacement. Replacing a veteran QB who has led the nation since 2019 by averaging 436.1 total Yards-Per-Game against FBS opponents with a QB from the FCS level seems to be a downgrade. Given all this, can Elliott learn from his mistakes and regroup to lead this inexperienced team?                                                             WAKE FOREST: Is the Demon Deacons’ seven-game bowl streak in jeopardy this year in the tenth season under head coach Dave Clawson? Only 11 starters return from the group that finished 8-5 with a 27-17 victory against Missouri in the Outback Bowl. The offense lost four-year starting quarterback Sam Hartman with his decision to transfer to Notre Dame. Six starters are back from a defensive unit whose numbers look better due to holding Army and VMI to ten points apiece. The Demon Deacons still ranked 81st in the nation by allowing 28.3 Points-Per-Game — and they ranked 92nd in the FBS by giving up 406.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They allowed 30 or more points seven times. WESTERN MICHIGAN: How steep a climb does first-year head coach Lance Taylor face with the Broncos firing head coach Tim Lester after the program’s first losing season since 2013? Last year’s team finished 5-7 overall with a 4-4 record in the Mid-American Conference but got outgained by -28 Yards-Per-Game against conference opponents. It was the decline of the production on offense that may have done Lester in despite his 37-32 record in his six seasons with the program. The Broncos ranked 124th in the nation by averaging only 301.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They also ranked 118th in the FBS by scoring 19.0 Points-Per-Game — and they scored 21 points or less in nine of their 12 games. Taylor was Louisville’s offensive coordinator last year but he may need some time to rebuild this offense since the quarterback room again features second-year freshman Treyson Bourguet and redshirt sophomore Jack Salopek. The offense completed only 49.9% of their passes last year. The coaching change led to an exodus of players leaving the program in the transfer portal including 1000-yard running back Sean Tyler and leading receiver Corey Crooms who both joined former Western Michigan head coach P.J. Fleck at Minnesota. Linebacker Ryan Selig also left for Minnesota -- leaving the defense with only two returning starters and just three of the 12 players that logged in 250 or more snaps last year.  WISCONSIN: Luke Fickell takes over as head coach after posting a 57-17 record at Cincinnati which included an appearance in the College Football Playoff Semifinals. The former Ohio State defensive coordinator has eight starters back on defense from a group that ranked 10th in the nation by allowing only 303.5 total Yards-Per-Game. That side of the ball should remain excellent. The concern is on the other side of the line of scrimmage after the Badgers only generated 363.8 total YPG, ranking 90th in the FBS. Wisconsin has a talented running back returning in junior Braelon Allen who rushed for 1242 yards last year. But quarterback play was lacking in previous head coach Paul Chryst’s tenure. Fickell addressed that issue by bringing in sixth-year senior Tanner Mordecai from SMU. With 24 career starts under his belt, Mordecai has passed for 7152 yards with 72 touchdown passes in the last two seasons. Fickell also tapped former North Carolina offensive coordinator Phil Longo to run the offense — but I have questions if installing his up-tempo Air Raid is a good fit. The Badgers’ culture has emphasized physicality and defense in the past. Trying to replicate a Big 12 offense in the chilly Madison, Wisconsin weather may have drawbacks. And Mordecai is not nearly as mobile as someone like Drake Maye who was the last quarterback Longo coached two years ago. Best of luck — Frank.

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NFL Top 10 Poll - Week 13

by Wayne Root

Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

Twelve weeks into the 2023 NFL season, we're finding out how much we don't know about the league. A month ago, the Denver Broncos would have been out. The Green Bay Packers are now surging as well. The Buffalo Bills are .500 and San Francisco shows that a team can lose three games in a row and still be Number 1. Additionally, we had our second in-season head coach firing of 2023.   That's not even half of the happenings in Week 12 alone. The NFL may be many things. Boring ain't one of them. 1. San Francisco (8-3) After a three-game skid, the 49ers have returned to their old ways. They are consistently playing great football on both sides. Christian McCaffrey rushed for 114 yards and two touchdowns in the first half as the 49ers jumped out to a 21-point halftime lead and cruised to a 31-13 win against the Seahawks. The 49ers have won 10 straight against NFC West opponents and three straight overall to put a three-game losing streak in the distance. If Brock Purdy can be a game manager and not turn the ball over, then the 49ers might be ready to take on the Eagles for the best of the NFC. Luckily, we get to find out this week when the two NFC Juggernauts face off in Philadelphia. 2. Philadelphia (10-1) In some late-game heroics, the Eagles remained the NFL's only one-loss team. Never underestimate the value of a great kicker. Jake Elliott’s game-tying 59-yarder through the rain tied the score with 20 seconds left in regulation, and Jalen Hurts capped a five-touchdown day (three passing, two rushing) with a 12-yard scramble to the end zone to seal a 37-34 overtime win against the Bills. The Eagles overcame a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit. The Bills could not capitalize when they had opportunities and it ended up biting them in the rear end. Philadelphia continues to show that they are a top 1 or 2 team in the NFL, even if they have a coach who acts like a middle schooler at the helm. 3. Kansas City (8-3) The Chiefs looked more like themselves this week against the Raiders. While the Raiders are not a great team, they have been playing good football ever since they parted ways with Josh McDaniels. Kansas City had a slow start, but unlike in recent weeks, they were able to put points on the scoreboard in the second half. After not scoring in the second half for three straight games, the Chiefs scored 17 to break a halftime tie in a 31-17 win against the Raiders. All of it was needed, too, after falling into a 14-0 hole giving renewed Raiders faithful hope. The the Chiefs defense stepped up. The Chiefs have held 11 straight opponents to 24 points or fewer. Isiah Pacheco rushed for two touchdowns. If this version of the Chiefs is what we get the rest of the year, they could be a tough team to beat in the playoffs, especially if the AFC still runs through Arrowhead. 4. Baltimore (9-3) The Ravens are somewhat gimmicky, but they have found consistent success on both sides of the ball this season. There is a reason that they are atop the AFC by a half-game. They have, unlike the Chiefs on a consistent basis, executed. They are not as talented as the other teams in their tier, but they are all consistently on the same page and therefore win big games. The well-traveled Jadeveon Clowney is playing like a former No. 1 overall draft pick, culminating with a key strip-sack takeaway that kept fourth-quarter points off the board in a 20-10 victory against the Chargers. Rookie Zay Flowers scored both touchdowns, icing the game with 96 seconds to go. The Ravens have led entering the fourth quarter in all 12 games. I think the Mark Andrews injury will probably haunt them against really good defenses, but they beat the Chargers in a tight matchup. 5. Dallas (8-3) Okay, okay, okay. I know that the Cowboys won and that they have talent all over the field, but they will forever be a team that I am willing to allow other teams to jump over because they have not beaten anyone with a winning record… for the time being. How is that possible? A 25-point fourth-quarter explosion turned a close game into a 45-10 blowout against the Commanders. Dak Prescott threw for 331 yards and had multiple touchdown passes for the fifth straight game. DaRon Bland set a NFL single-season record with his fifth interception return for a touchdown. The Cowboys have won 13 straight at home — their longest streak in 42 years. I don't know if the Cowboys are ready or battle-tested for what the NFC playoff picture could show them in the coming weeks. 6. Detroit (8-3)   Although the score does not show it, this week's game against the Packers was never really a competition. The Lions started slowly and they never really got into the game. The Lions dropped their seventh straight Thanksgiving game, losing 29-22 to the Packers. Converting just 1 of 5 fourth-down tries didn’t help the cause. Especially the failed fake punt from their own 23-yard line that led to an easy touchdown. Jared Goff fumbled a career-high three times, one of which was returned for a defensive touchdown. We could either chalk it up to the "Thanksgiving curse" or we can say that the Lions are vulnerable, especially on defense. I personally feel there’s only one way for the Lions to move and that’s down. They better torch the Saints this week as a test to let the NFC and their fans know.  7. Jacksonville (8-3) In a tight AFC South matchup, the Jags snuck out a win over the up-and-coming Texans in Houston. Jacksonville has found some great success with Calvin Ridley in the last few weeks and is beginning to find a new kind of offensive rhythm. Trevor Lawrence threw for 364 yards and accounted for two touchdowns as the Jaguars improved to 6-0 away from home and avenged an earlier loss to the Texans by winning, 24-21, in Houston. Brandon McManus made 3 of 4 field goals while counterpart Matt Ammendola missed both his attempts, including a would-be, game-tying, 58-yarder in the final minute. Their adaptability and talent level could make them a difficult team to beat down the stretch.  8. Miami (8-3)  The Dolphins, like the Cowboys, are a team that struggles to beat the upper-echelon of NFL teams. They have some tremendous talent on both sides of the ball, but they have just not been able to come away with wins in tough matchups. This week they thumped the Jets, but who hasn't? Jevon Holland returned a Hail Mary interception 99 yards the other way for one of the craziest touchdowns in NFL history — the most memorable moment of a 34-13 win against the Jets in the inaugural “Black Friday” game. Raheem Mostert ran for two touchdowns to offset two interceptions thrown by Tua Tagovailoa. This week they should beat up on the Commanders and we’ll still know very little.  9. Pittsburgh (7-4)  The Steelers are forever confusing. They are tough defensively most of the time, but the offense has been abysmal. Last Sunday however, the Steelers posted their first 400-yard game of the season, just days after parting ways with former offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Coincidence? I think not. In their first game since firing offensive coordinator Canada, the Steelers snapped a 58-game streak of not gaining 400 yards by tallying 421 in a 16-10 win against the Bengals. Najee Harris scored a touchdown, and Chris Boswell kicked three field goals. The defense sacked Jake Browning four times in his first career NFL start. If this version of the Steelers is for real, they could be a viable contender for the division. That and they still have their defense and a great Coach.   10. Cleveland (7-4)  Everyone knows that the Browns have a great defense. What we still don't know is what is going to happen with the quarterback situation in Cleveland. For all the success the Cleveland Browns have had in the face of adversity, at some point all the injuries were just going to be too much to overcome. What the Browns have accomplished without their starting quarterback (Deshaun Watson) and best offensive player (running back Nick Chubb) is impressive. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been almost serviceable, but it is clear that they need more. Do they turn to Joe Flacco or do they just hope for the best with a rookie? What they do will be a huge indicator of what is to come. Their defense is what wins games in December.   

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 11/29/2023

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and UEFA Champions League action. The National Basketball Association has seven games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Lakers travel to Detroit to play the Pistons as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 229. The Orlando Magic hosts the Washington Wizards as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 234. The Phoenix Suns are in Toronto to play the Raptors at 7:40 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 222.5. Two more NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Memphis Grizzlies play at home against the Utah Jazz as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 224.5. The Philadelphia 76ers play in New Orleans against the Pelicans as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 227.5. The Denver Nuggets are at home against the Houston Rockets at 9:10 PM ET as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 217. The Los Angeles Clippers visit Sacramento at 10:10 PM ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 230.5. The National Hockey League has three games on its slate. The Columbus Blue Jackets host the Montreal Canadiens at 7:07 PM ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The New York Rangers play at home against the Detroit Red Wings on TNT at 7:37 PM ET as a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Los Angeles Kings are at home against the Washington Capitals at 10:37 PM ET as a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.The college basketball schedule has ten games on national television. Two NCAAB games tip-off at 6:30 PM ET. Villanova hosts Saint Joseph’s on FS1 at 6:30 PM ET as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 139.5. Seton Hall plays at home against Northeastern on FS2 as a 15-point favorite with an over/under of 141. Florida International is at home against Florida Gulf Coast on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 144. Three NCAAB games on national television begin at 7:15 PM ET. North Carolina hosts Tennessee on ESPN as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 143.5. Virginia plays at home against Texas A&M on ESPN2 as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 127. Florida is at Wake Forest on ESPNU as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 156.5. Georgetown is at home against Merrimack on FS1 at 8:30 PM ET as a 10-point favorite with a total of 140. Colorado State hosts Colorado at 9 PM ET on the CBS Sports Network as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 148.5. Two more NCAAB games are on national television at 9 PM ET. Duke plays at Arkansas on ESPN at 9:15 PM ET as a 6-point road favorite with a total of 149. Auburn plays at home against Virginia Tech on ESPN2 as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 150.5. Matchday 5 in the UEFA Champions League concludes with eight group-stage matches. Two matches start at 12:45 PM ET. Manchester United travels to Galatasaray in a pick ‘em match with a total of 3. Eindhoven PSV plays at Sevilla in a pick ‘em contest with an over/under of 2.5. Six matches conclude the UCL card at 3 PM ET. Bayern Munich is at home against FC Copenhagen as a 2-goal favorite with a total of 3.5. Arsenal hosts Lens as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. Real Madrid plays at home against Napoli as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Sporting Braga is at home against Union Berlin as a -0. a goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Inter Milan visit Benfica in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5. Real Sociedad is at home against RB Salzburg on the CBS Sports Network as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. All eight Champions League matches are available on Paramount+.

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NHL Off the Post: November 29th

by Sean Murphy

Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

The dark cloud just won't go away in Chicago as the Blackhawks are mired in another controversy - this time involving the release of veteran Corey Perry following an incident that's shrouded in secrecy. That's the story that's grabbed headlines this week but here's a look at four more useful tidbits from around the league as we approach the start of December. Kane is able?The Red Wings made a splash on Tuesday, signing future Hall-of-Famer Patrick Kane who is coming off offseason hip surgery and based on his play after joining the Rangers last season, doesn't have a whole lot of tread left on his tires. If nothing else, Kane provides some additional veteran leadership in the dressing room for a young Red Wings squad that has already made positive strides this season, starting 11-7-2. How productive Kane can be remains to be seen but Detroit is certainly on an upswing as it heads into a stretch that will see it play three of its next four games on the road. All hail the KingsYes, we're talking about the Kings again this week as their red hot run continues. Los Angeles has reeled off five straight victories, allowing a grand total of just five goals over that stretch. On the season, the Kings have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.5 goals, noting that they're putting up an impressive 4.0 goals per contest. They'll have another two opportunities to pad their stats at home against the Capitals and Avalanche this week before heading out on the road for four straight, all in the Eastern time zone. Pittsburgh power outageThe Penguins have had a miserable time offensively, scoring just 14 goals over their last seven games, going 2-5 over that stretch. In an interesting scheduling quirk, their next four games will come against the Lightning and Flyers, including two games in Tampa. With the Metropolitan Division appearing ultra-competitive this season, Pittsburgh will need to turn it around in a hurry, noting that it currently sits in seventh-place in the division, just three points clear of the last-place Blue Jackets. The good news is, a single victory could leap-frog the Pens all the way to third with the Flyers currently holding down that position with only 23 points. Not so golden?The Golden Knights were the talk of the league earlier this season, looking very much like the team to beat as they defend their Stanley Cup crown. While Vegas still sits in first-place in the NHL, it has run into a rough patch, securing just one victory in its last six games. Of course it's worth noting that three of the Knights five defeats over that stretch came by way of overtime or a shootout including the latter on Tuesday night in Edmonton. Following Thursday's stop in Vancouver, the Knights will play six of their next eight games at home and they will likely be heavily-favored in all six of those contests on the Strip. 

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NCAA Football: Mountain West Tiebreaker System Skewed

by Vegas Writer

Tuesday, Nov 28, 2023

Fresh off their road win in Las Vegas, the San Jose State Spartans were left out of the title game despite tying the UNLV Rebels and Boise State Broncos atop the standings.Instead, after losing on its home field, UNLV will play host to Boise State this Saturday to determine the league champion.League officials used the average of four rankings - Anderson & Hester, Colley Matrix, Massey, and Wolfe - to break the tie, and UNLV had a 44.50 computer average to secure one spot while Boise State checked in at 55.75 and San Jose State finished with a 58.50.Only the Wolfe ranking system had SJSU ranked higher than Boise State.San Jose State is still going to a bowl game, but some believe it should be in this weekend's championship.The Mountain West, which abandoned divisions this season, couldn’t use the College Football Playoff rankings because none of the three teams are ranked. Head-to-head results became irrelevant because Boise State and UNLV did not meet this season.But here are some other factors to consider: Both SJSU and Boise State had significantly stronger strength of schedules. An analytical website, Team Rankings, ranked Boise State 70th and San Jose State 72nd in terms of strength of schedule. Also on Team Rankings, its Luck Rating scale has UNLV ranked the 36th luckiest team in the nation, in terms of wins above expected, San Jose State 82nd, and Boise State 106th. San Jose State hasn’t lost since Oct. 7, a 35-27 loss at Boise State, and the Spartans blew a 27-7 halftime lead. But they did beat UNLV on its own field.And what would have happened if the Mountain West used the same tiebreaking system as other leagues?Check it: AAC: Boise State at UNLV ACC: UNLV at Boise State Pac 12: UNLV at Boise State Big 12: UNLV at Boise State So, yes, in every other FBS conference similar to the MWC, San Jose State would've been eliminated, but 75% of them would have Boise State hosting the championship.I won't have a play on the game, but it is interesting the Broncos opened a road favorite in Las Vegas.Are the oddsmakers - along with the other conference tiebreakers and Team Rankings - telling us something?

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 11/28/2023

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Nov 28, 2023

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and UEFA Champions League action. The National Basketball Association continues its In-Season Tournament with eight games on the Tournament Night docket. Five NBA games tip off at 7:40 PM ET. The Boston Celtics host the Chicago Bulls as a 13-point favorite, with the total set at 217 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated). The Brooklyn Nets play at home against the Toronto Raptors as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 223. The Cleveland Cavaliers are at home against the Atlanta Hawks as a 5-point favorite with a total of 237. The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Miami to play the Heat on TNT as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 226. The New York Knicks host the Charlotte Hornets as a 12-point favorite with a total of 222.5. The Minnesota Timberwolves play at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder at 8:10 PM ET as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 227.5. The Dallas Mavericks are at home against the Houston Rockets at 8:40 PM ET as a 5-point favorite with a total of 231.5. The Sacramento Kings host the Golden State Warriors on TNT at 10:10 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 238.5. The National Hockey League has ten games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. The Toronto Maple Leafs play at home against the Florida Panthers as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The New Jersey Devils are at home against the New York Islanders at 7:37 PM ET as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Carolina Hurricanes visit Philadelphia to play the Flyers at 7:37 PM ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. Three NHL games begin at 8:07 PM ET. The Minnesota Wild host the St. Louis Blues as a -162 money-line favor with an over/under of 6.5. The Pittsburgh Penguins play in Nashville against the Predators as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Dallas Stars are in Winnipeg to play the Jets as a -118 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Seattle Kraken travel to Chicago to play the Blackhawks at 8:37 PM ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Two NHL games begin at 9:07 PM ET. The Tampa Bay Lightning play in Arizona to play the Coyotes as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers play at home against the Vegas Golden Knights as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Vancouver Canucks are at home against the Anaheim Ducks at 10:07 PM ET as a -238 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has seven games on national television. Two NCAAB games tip off at 7 PM ET. Providence hosts Wagner on FS1 as a 20.5-point favorite with a total of 124.5. Syracuse plays at home against LSU on ESPN2 as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 151. Two more NCAAB games start at 7:30 PM ET. Kentucky is at home against Miami (FL) on ESPN as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 164. Pittsburgh plays at home against Marquette on ESPNU as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 146. Two NCAAB games start at 9 PM ET. Marquette is at home against Southern on FS1 as a 30-point favorite with a total of 148.5. Missouri hosts North Carolina State on ESPN2 as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 146.5. Alabama plays at home against Clemson on ESPN at 9:30 PM ET as a 9-point favorite with a total of 159.5. Matchday 5 in the UEFA Champions League begins with eight group-stage matches. Two matches start at 12:45 PM ET. RB Lazio is at home against Celtic as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Shakhtar Donetsk hosts Antwerp as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Six matches conclude the UCL card at 3 PM ET. Atletico Madrid plays at Feyenoord on the CBS Sports Network in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5. Paris Saint-Germain plays at home against Newcastle United as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. AC Milan is at home against Borussia Dortmund as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester City hosts RB Leipzig as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. The Young Boys plays at home against Crvena Zvezda as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. Barcelona is at home against FC Porto as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. All eight Champions League matches are available on Paramount+.

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NFL Week 13: VW's Power Rankings

by Vegas Writer

Tuesday, Nov 28, 2023

Back in action with NFL Power Rankings, and once again there's been a bit of a shake-up in the Top 10.Philadelphia is back on top of the rankings, followed by the resurging 49ers. The defending champs stumbled down to No. 3.From there it's muddled with new names.The biggest surprise? How about the suddenly improved Broncos?Let's get to it:THE UPPER TIER1. Philadelphia (10-1) - The Eagles are the clear leader in the NFC and in my power poll after registering their fourth straight comeback win. They’ve shown resiliency at the right time of the year while Jalen Hurts is playing at an MVP level. Philadelphia faces the 49ers and Cowboys in its next two games. (Last week 2)2. San Francisco (8-3) - The 49ers have gotten healthy at the right time and came out of the bye week better than before. They geared up for Sunday's NFC championship rematch against Philadelphia with a dominating 31-13 win at Seattle on Thanksgiving. (Last week 7)3. Kansas City (8-3) - The Chiefs rebounded from a home loss to Philadelphia, one laced by dropped balls, by rallying for a 31-17 win in Las Vegas. Though it took a quarter to get going against the Raiders, Patrick Mahomes completed two touchdown passes while Isiah Pacheco ran for two scores. (Last week 1)4. Dallas (8-3) - The Cowboys trounced the Commanders 45-10 on Thanksgiving, their seventh win by at least 23 points. Dak Prescott threw four touchdown passes, DaRon Bland set an NFL record with his fifth pick-six of the season and Micah Parsons added to his sack total. If only they could beat elite teams. (Last week 8)5. Baltimore (9-3) - The Ravens will spend this weekend watching Miami, Jacksonville and Kansas City try to pull even with them atop the AFC. Baltimore won its second straight after holding the Chargers to 279 yards of offense. (Last week 3)6. Jacksonville (8-3) - Trevor Lawrence threw for 364 yards and one touchdown and ran for a score to help the Jags stymie division-rival Houston, 24-21. Jacksonville now holds a two-game lead over the Texans (6-5) and Indianapolis Colts (6-5) in the AFC South. (Last week 5)7. Detroit (8-3) - The Lions were ascending in the overall NFC standings but took a major step back when they were outplayed on Thanksgiving in a 29-22 loss to the Green Bay Packers. And that was after needing to rally to beat the lowly Bears four days prior. Jared Goff, once again, has critics questioning his legitimacy. (Last week 6)8. Miami (8-3) - The Dolphins continue to win, somehow, and now have three straight opponents with a combined 12-22 mark. Then, however, the Dolphins finish with three tough games against Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo. (Last week 11)9. Denver (6-5) - The hottest team in the league resides in the Mile High City, as the Broncos are relevant heading into December for the first time since 2016. It's hard to believe after they stumbled to a 1-5 start. (Last week 19)10. Cleveland (7-4) - First Deshaun Watson, and now Dorian Thompson-Robinson. The Browns continue to get bitten by the injury bug at the quarterback position. The Browns have a long road ahead the last six weeks. (Last week 9)11. Buffalo (6-6) - The Bills, who entered the season with Super Bowl expectations, collapsed in Philadelphia as they blew several leads, including one in overtime, before losing 37-34. The loss dropped them to 10th in the AFC. (Last week 10)12. Seattle (6-5) - The Seahawks were climbing, and even had a chance to regain the lead in the NFC West but were no match against the 49ers. They've lost two in a row and are scrambling. (Last week 12)13. Pittsburgh (7-4) - The Steelers fired then-offensive coordinator Matt Canada, and then went out and topped 400 yards for the first time in more than three years, moving the ball fluidly against the Bengals. Now they're atop the AFC wild-card race. (Last week 16)14. Houston (6-5) - The Texans' hard-to-swallow loss to the Jaguars could fuel their fire down the stretch. Matt Ammendola’s 58-yard field goal attempt bounced off the crossbar at the end, otherwise, this team might be in the Top 10. (Last week 20)15. Green Bay (5-6) - The Packers have made a statement with two straight wins, including the upset in Motown over the NFC North-leading Lions. They're within reach of a playoff spot in the NFC and fans are rejoicing knowing Aaron and Davante aren't even close. (Last week 18)16. Cincinnati (5-6) - The Bengals' demise continues without Joe Burrow, as they've lost three in a row and now travel to AFC South-leading Jacksonville. (Last week 4)THE LOWER TIER:17. Minnesota  (6-6) - Two straight losses, including Monday at home to the Bears. Maybe Joshua Dobbs isn't the answer. (Last week 14)18. L.A. Chargers (4-7) - Is Brandon Staley still coach? (Last week 13)19. Indianapolis (6-5) - One of the more confusing teams in the AFC, the Colts have the wild-card race muddled. (Last week 23)20. New Orleans (5-6) - The Saints have lost two in a row and do have three straight at home. They need a strong showing during the homestand. (Last week 15)21. Atlanta (5-6) - The Falcons come out of a bye week with a win over the Saints, snapping their three-game skid, and now have three winnable games in front of them. (Last week 24)22. N.Y. Jets (4-7) - Don't bother forcing a return Aaron, there's no reason to further damage your Achilles when this team isn't going anywhere. (Last week 17)23. L.A. Rams (5-6) - The Rams might be the NFC's version of the very strange and confusing Colts, as they've suddenly won two straight and are knocking on the wild-card door. (Last week 27)24. N.Y. Giants (4-8) - Not sure where the Giants' two-game win streak came from, and now they get a bye week before winnable games against Green Bay and New Orleans. (Last week 30)25. Las Vegas (5-7) - Four of the Raiders’ final five games are against teams with winning records. Interim coach Antonio Pierce needs to be competitive to be considered long-term. (Last week 22)26. Chicago (4-8) - The Bears beat the Vikings on Monday, but it also might be safe to say Minnesota keeps beating itself. (Last week 31)27. Tennessee (4-7) - The Titans will finally play at home for consecutive games, looking for a winning streak after a 17-10 win over Carolina. (Last week 25)28. Washington (4-8) - The Commanders should do Ron Rivera a favor and let him go somewhere he can utilize his coaching abilities. (Last week 21)29. Tampa Bay (4-7) - I can't believe I'm saying this, but the Buccaneers are still in a position to control their destiny considering how weak the NFC South is this year. (Last week 26)30. New England (2-9) - Once Staley is fired, Bill Belichick should make a move out West. (Last week 28)31. Arizona (2-10) - The Cardinals' rebuild won't be easy, but it may start with a fresh look at quarterback. (Last week 32)32. Carolina (1-10) - Frank Reich became the second in-season firing. The Panthers now may have their second straight No. 1 pick. (Last week 29)

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NBA Player Props - Monday, November 27th

by ASA, Inc.

Monday, Nov 27, 2023

ASA’s NBA PLAYER PROPS – Monday, November 27th We have two player props for you on Monday night on a pair of Point Guards going up against two porous defenses. Not only that, but these two bets involve teams playing with the two highest Totals on the board which means more than normal scoring opportunities for the players involved. Monday Night football dominates the betting markets tonight but here are a few opportunities to capitalize on NBA player props this evening. WASHINGTON WIZARDS TYUS JONES - OVER 11.5 POINTS Jones is coming off a 4-point outing against the Hawks but should get right in this match up versus the Pistons. Jones is averaging 10.8PPG over his last ten games but in three of those games he managed just 6-total points. In the other seven games over that ten game stretch he has averaged 14.5PPG. Tonight, the Wiz face a Detroit team that allows the most points to Point Guards this season at 28.5PPG. Detroit is 24th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.178 points per possession on the season and allow opponents to shoot 50.3% on the season which is 30th or last in the league. Tyus Jones is coming off a poor shooting night against the Hawks, but he had shot 64.3%, 46.2%, 69.2%, 57.1% and 85.7% in his previous five games. Lastly, the Total on this game is 236 total points which means a high scoring game for both teams with more than average scoring opportunities for both teams. PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS MALCOLM BROGDON – OVER 19.5 POINTS What we know about Malcolm Brogdon going back to his Virginia days is that he likes to get his. Brogdon is working hard this season to put up numbers to showcase his skills before the trade deadline. He is second on the teams in field goal attempts at 15.8 and averages 17.7PPG on the season. In the last three games he has scored 18, 20 and 19 points. He has scored 18+ in 7 of his last ten games and will have a great opportunity to put up a big scoring night against the Pacers. Indiana averages the most possessions per game at 104.1 and attempt 95.1 field goals per game which is also first. That means this is going to be a faster paced game with plenty of scoring opportunities for the Blazers and more specifically Malcolm Brogdon. Brogdon is shooting 36.5% from beyond the Arc this season and the Pacers defense allows opponents to shoot 39.1% from the 3-point line which is 3rd worst in the league. Brogdon should put up a big scoring night against a Pacer defense that is 29th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and allow the 4th most points to Point Guards in the league.

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