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NCAA Tuesday Night Basketball: Kansas/Texas Preview

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Feb 23, 2021

The college basketball doubleheader on ESPN for Tuesday concludes with a Big 12 battle between two nationally-ranked teams. Kansas won their fifth in a row with their 67-61 win against Texas Tech as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. David McCormack scored 17 points and pulled down 10 rebounds. The 6’10 junior is scoring 13.0 points-per-game while adding 6.1 rebounds-per-game. Chai Agbaji poured in 14 points and grabbed another 13 rebounds. The junior leads the team with a 13.7 points-per-game scoring average. Jalen Wilson contributed 11 points. The freshman is scoring 12.7 points-per-game and leads the team with an 8.0 rebounds-per-game mark.The Jayhawks’ improved play stems from a change in defensive tactics by Bill Self. After losing five of seven games, Self instructing his players to be more aggressive in their ball screen coverage. Kansas has held their last five opponents to just 0.81 points-per-possession, which would be the stingiest in the nation if extended to the entire season. Kansas can struggle to score baskets. Their 48.9% shooting percentage inside the arc this season is 201st in the nation. The kenpom adjusted offensive efficiency numbers still rank the Jayhawks 54th in the nation. They pull down 31.7% of their misses, 66th in the country. They rank 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency, with their interior defense leading the way. Kansas leads the Big 12 by holding their opponents to just 44.5% shooting inside the arc.The Jayhawks have climbed to 17th in the nation in the Associated Press poll with a 17-7 record. Their 11-5 conference record puts them in third place in the rugged Big 12. Kansas has quality victories against Creighton, West Virginia, Texas Tech (twice), Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. Their five conference losses are against Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and these Longhorns. The Jayhawks have also lost to Gonzaga and Tennessee in non-conference action.Texas lost their fourth game in their last six contests on Saturday in an 84-82 upset loss at home to West Virginia as a 4.5-point favorite. The loss is troubling for Shaka Smart for several reasons. The Longhorns blew a 19-point second-half lead. Courtney Ramey and Andrew Jones got into a verbal altercation on the sidelines in the final 20 minutes of that game, with the team getting outscored, 34-18, after the dustup. This loss was the fourth loss in their last six games at home in Austin. Ramey did score a career-high 28 points in the loss on the strength of hitting seven of his eight shots from 3-point land. The junior is second on the team with a 14.1 points-per-game scoring average. Jones leads the team with a 15.6 points-per-game clip. The Longhorns returned twelve players, including all five starters from last year. Smart added a likely one-and-done freshman in Greg Brown, who is contributing 10.6 points-per-game and 7.6 rebounds-per-game. Texas has six players scoring at least 8.1 points-per-game.Texas ranks 12th in the AP poll with a 13-6 record. They have several impressive victories against Indiana and North Carolina en route to winning the Maui Invitational while adding wins against Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and these Jayhawks. Their six losses are against Villanova, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and the Mountaineers on Saturday. Their 7-5 record in the Big 12 puts them in fifth place.The Longhorns had their games with Oklahoma and Iowa State last week canceled because of the winter storm in Texas. Smart’s team has also had several games lost this season due to the COVID, with both the players and the coaching staff missing time.Smart’s job was in jeopardy last season. The team hit a low point in an 81-52 loss at Iowa State. Yet Smart rallied his team to win five of their last six games to finish with a 19-12 record in a season interrupted to COVID. Texas was on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament. Smart's team has won 18 of their last 25 games since that drubbing to the Cyclones. Texas ranks 19th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. On defense, the Longhorns are 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency fueled by their half-court defense as they hold their opponents to a 45.9% effective field goal percentage, 21st nationally.Kansas suffered the worst loss at home in Self’s tenure with the program in the first meeting between these two teams, which Texas won, 84-59, as a 4.5-point underdog. Smart described this rematch as a “watershed moment” given his team's recent struggles. BookMaker lists Texas as a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 137.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, EPL, UEFA Champions League, NBA and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Feb 23, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, the NHL, the English Premier League, and the UEFA Champions League.The nationally-televised college basketball card begins at 6 PM ET with Saint Louis visiting VCU on the CBS Sports Network. The Billikens, 11-4, had their four-game winning streak end on Friday with their 76-53 upset loss at Dayton as a 6-point favorite. The Rams, 16-5, were upset by George Mason on Saturday as a 10-point favorite to snap their six-game winning streak. Saint Louis is a 3-point road favorite with the total set at 135.5 (all odds from BetOnline).Illinois travels to Michigan State on FS1 at 7 PM ET. The Fighting Illini are ranked fifth in the nation by the Associated Press with a 16-5 record. They won their seventh in a row with their 74-63 win at Minnesota as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Spartans improved to 11-8 with their 78-71 upset win at Indiana as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. Illinois is a 7-point road favorite with an over/under of 145.5.West Virginia plays at TCU on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. The Mountaineers are ranked 10th by the AP with a 15-6 record. They have won four of their last five games after upsetting Texas on the road on Saturday, 84-82, as a 4.5-point underdog. The Horned Frogs fell to 11-9 on Saturday after getting upset at home to Kansas State, 62-54, as a 7-point favorite. West Virginia is an 8.5-point road favorite, with the total at 146.5.Auburn hosts Florida on ESPN at 7 PM ET. The Tigers dropped to 11-12 with a 104-80 loss at LSU as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Gators improved to 11-6 after defeating Georgia, 70-63, as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. Auburn is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 154.5.Villanova plays at home against St. John’s on the CBS Sports Network at 8 PM ET. The Wildcats raised their record to 14-3 on Saturday with a 68-60 win against UConn as a 7-point favorite. The Red Storm fell to 14-9 with their 88-83 upset loss to DePaul as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday. Villanova is an 11.5-point favorite with the total at 154.Oklahoma visits Kansas State on ESPN 2 at 9 PM ET. The Sooners are ranked seventh by the AP with a 14-5 record. They won their third in a row with their 66-56 win at Iowa State as a 12-point favorite on Saturday. The Wildcats improved to 6-18 with their 62-54 upset win at TCU on Saturday. Oklahoma is a 10-point road favorite with an over/under of 131.Texas plays at home against Kansas on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Longhorns fell to 13-6 with their 84-82 upset loss to West Virginia as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Jayhawks improved to 17-7 by defeating Texas Tech, 67-61, as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Texas is a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 140.UConn visits Georgetown on FS1 at 9 PM ET. The Huskies dropped to 10-6 on Saturday with their 68-60 loss at Villanova as a 7-point underdog. The Hoyas raised their record to 7-10 with their 81-75 upset victory against Seton Hall as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. UConn is a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 138.The NBA slate has nine games on tap. A doubleheader on TNT tips off at 7:35 PM ET with Boston visiting Dallas. The Celtics have lost four of six after their 120-115 upset loss at New Orleans as a 2-point favorite. The Mavericks have won five of six with their 102-92 victory against Memphis as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. The nightcap on TNT has Portland playing at Denver at 10 PM ET. The Trail Blazers lost at Phoenix on Monday, 132-100, as a 6.5-point underdog. The Nuggets lost their third game in their last four with a 123-115 upset loss at Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.Six games are on the NHL schedule. Washington hosts Pittsburgh on the NBC Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Capitals have won three of four with their 4-3 win against New Jersey on Sunday. The Penguins won their fourth in five games after their 3-2 win against the New York Islanders on Saturday. Washington is a -115 money line favorite with the total at 6.Matchweek 25 concludes on Tuesday with Leeds United playing at home against Southampton at 1 PM ET as a -0.25 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.75. The NBC Sports Network broadcasts the game. The Last 16 round of the UEFA Champions League continues with two first leg matches at 3 PM ET. Bayern Munich visits Lazio at 3 PM ET as a -0.75 goal line road favorite with the total at 3.25. Chelsea plays at Atletico Madrid in a pick ‘em matchup on the CBS Sports Network with an over/under of 2.

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NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Defensive Efficiency Is Key!

by Power Sports

Tuesday, Feb 23, 2021

Before you know it, the NCAA Tournament will be underway. With that in mind, I wanted to discuss a key metric I look at every year when handicapping March Madness (well except 2020). Defensive efficiency is key. For those that are unaware, defensive efficiency refers not to the number of points a particular team allows per game, but rather over a given number of possessions. Typically, a team’s defensive efficiency rating is extracted from the number of points it allows per 100 possessions. The site KenPom.com makes even further adjustments and their ratings are the ones I lean on for my own College Basketball picks. Looking at efficiency gives you a better “feel” for how a team really plays defense as opposed to simply looking at the number of points they allow per game. Some teams play at much slower tempos and thus there are a fewer number of possessions per game. Therefore, they are likely to give up a lower number of points per game. (Note: if they don’t, that means they are pretty bad defensively!) Conversely, if a team is giving up fewer points in a game that has more possessions, then they are a significantly better defensive team. Even if you don’t care to understand defensive efficiency, that’s okay. The aforementioned KenPom posts every team’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating and you can view it there. The current top 10 teams in defensive efficiency rating (per KenPom) are: Loyola Chicago, Alabama, Memphis, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Baylor, Houston, Wisconsin, Illinois and VCU. Obviously, you’ve got some names on that list that you’d expect to see. Gonzaga and Baylor are both undefeated and the top two teams in the country. Alabama, Tennessee, Houston, Wisconsin and Illinois are all Top 25 teams you’d expect will perform well in the NCAA Tournament.But there are definitely two names on that list that should jump out to you. First and foremost, you’ve got Loyola Chicago, who is #1 in the entire country in defensive efficiency. The Ramblers are currently ranked in the Top 25, but only projected to be an 8-seed by the “esteemed” Joe Lunardi. In my opinion, this is NOT a team that any #1 seed would want to face in the Round of 32. I would almost certainly take the points with Loyola against any higher seed come tourney time. Remember - they made the Final Four three years ago! VCU is another team to keep an eye on. Right now, the Rams are very much a bubble team. But as a likely double digit seed, they’d make for a very live dog in the Round of 64. Unfortunately for Memphis, they are currently NOT projected to be a NCAA Tournament team. They’d be a real dark horse (to pull an upset or two, not to win the whole thing obviously) if they were somehow to make the field.Underdogs with strong defensive efficiency ratings make for strong plays come NCAA Tournament time. On the flip side, favorites with suspect defensive efficiency ratings are vulnerable to getting bounced early. There are likely to be a handful of teams in this year’s Tourney that will get high seeds despite defensive efficiency ratings outside the top 75. They are: Iowa, Ohio State and Villanova. Ohio State is even in the running for a #1 seed! I would not pick any of these squads to make it to the Final Four. Keep all this in mind when the brackets are released next month. It will help you be a more successful NCAA Tournament bettor. 

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NCAA Monday Night Basketball: Texas Tech/Oklahoma State Preview

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Feb 22, 2021

The Big Monday college basketball doubleheader on ESPN concludes at 9 PM ET in a battle of Big 12 foes jockeying for seeding in the NCAA Tournament.Texas Tech returned to action on Saturday after not playing for ten days in a 76-71 loss at Kansas as a 3-point underdog. The Jayhawks nailed a 3-pointer with 24 seconds to take the lead for good in handing the Red Raiders their second-straight loss. Kevin McCullar and Marcus Santos-Silva both scored 12 points. McCullar is second on the team with a 10.6 points-per-game scoring average, while Santos-Silva is fifth with his 8.4 points-per-game clip. Chris Beard’s team is ranked 15th nationally by the Associated Press with a 14-7 record. This group is likely his most talented team in his five years as head coach of this program. While he lost three starters from the team that finished 18-13 last season, he was aggressive in attracting some high-level transfers while bringing in a good freshman class to join junior Kyler Edwards and sophomore Terrence Shannon. Some of the depth Beard had established diminished when five-star freshman Nimari Burnett decided to leave the team to transfer to another school. He was averaging 17.7 minutes-per-game but only scoring 5.3 points-per-game. Georgetown transfer Mac McClung has adapted to Beard’s system to lead the team with a 16.9 points-per-game scoring average. Shannon is second on the team by scoring 12.6 points-per-game. The Red Raiders are once again an outstanding defensive team under Beard. They are 24th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to kenpom. Texas Tech is eighth in the country by forcing turnovers in 24.8% of their opponent’s possessions. This team thrives in getting second-chance shots as they pull down 34.1% of their missed shots, 26th in the country. They also get to the free-throw line as they rank 13th in free throw rate. The weakness of this team is shooting the basketball. The Red Raiders make only 33.8% of their 3-pointers and 48.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 163rd and 227th, respectively. Kenpom ranks their adjusted offensive efficiency at 31st nationally. Texas Tech fell to 6-6 in the conference with the loss on Sunday, leaving them in seventh place in the Big 12. They have been defeated twice by Kansas and West Virginia, with additional losses to Baylor and these Cowboys. They lost to Houston in non-conference action. Their highest-profile wins are against Texas and Oklahoma (twice), and LSU in a non-conference victory. Oklahoma State scored the final nine points last Tuesday in a 76-58 victory against Iowa State as an 11-point favorite. Cade Cunningham scored 21 points while pulling down five rebounds and dishing out seven assists. The freshman phenom leads the team with an 18.5 points-per-game scoring average. The 6’8 freshman point guard might be the number one pick in the NBA draft in June. Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe added 17 points. The freshman is fourth on the team with a 9.4 points-per-game scoring average. Last year’s leading scorer, Isaac Likekely, will be a game-time decision tonight after not playing on Tuesday. The 6’5  junior point guard is second on the team with a 10.2 points-per-game scoring average. He is contributing 7.0 rebounds-per-game and 3.8 assists-per-game.Oklahoma State, 14-6, have high-profile victories against Texas, Kansas, Arkansas, and these Red Raiders. The Cowboys are in sixth place in the Big 12 with a 7-6 record with losses to Baylor, West Virginia, Texas, and Kansas. Two conference losses to TCU dog their resume. The Cowboys are 85th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. Their 51.1% shooting mark inside the arc is 119th. They rank 19th at kenpom in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their opponent's effective field goal percentage of 45.9% ranks 23rd nationally.Oklahoma State upset Texas Tech on the road in Lubbock on January 5th, 82-77, as an 8-point underdog. BetAnySports lists the Red Raiders as a 3.5-point road favorite with the total set at 138.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL, NHL, NBA and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Feb 22, 2021

The Monday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, the NHL, and the English Premier League.The college basketball card tips off at noon ET, with Liberty hosting North Alabama as a 13.5-point favorite with the total set at 133 (all odds from BetOnline). Duke plays at home against Syracuse on ESPN at 7 PM ET. The Blue Devils, 10-8, won their third straight on Saturday with their 66-65 upset win against Virginia as a 3-point underdog. The Orange won their third straight on Saturday in a 75-67 win against Notre Dame as a 1.5-point favorite. Duke is a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 149. Texas Tech visits Oklahoma State on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Red Raiders are ranked 15th in the nation by the Associated Press with a 14-7 record. They lost at Kansas,67-61, as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. The Cowboys improved to 14-6 with a 76-58 win against Iowa State as a 1-point favorite last Tuesday. Texas Tech is a 3-point road favorite with a total of 138.5.USC is at home against Oregon on FS1 at 9 PM ET. The Trojans are ranked 17th by the AP with an 18-4 record. Their seven-game winning streak ended on Saturday in an 81-72 loss to Arizona as a 6-point favorite. The Ducks are 14-4 with five straight victories after their 67-64 win against Utah as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. USC is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 138.New Mexico visits Air Force on the CBS Sports Network at 9:30 PM ET. The Lobos, 5-13, lost their fifth in a row on Friday in a 79-67 setback to Wyoming as a 5-point underdog. The Falcons, 4-16, lost their ninth game in a row after their 67-54 loss to Fresno State as a 4.5-point underdog back on February 13th. This Mountain West Conference game is a pick ‘em with the total at 126.5.Six games are on the NBA slate for Monday. The card tips off at 8 PM ET with Houston hosting Chicago as a 1-point favorite. The nightcap is at 10 PM ET, with the Los Angeles Lakers playing at home against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 226. None of the games are on national television.Eight games are on tap in the NHL. Four games begin the action at 7 PM ET. The card concludes at 10 PM ET with Minnesota traveling to San Jose as a -149 money line road favorite with the total at 5.5.Matchweek 25 of the English Premier League finishes on Monday with Brighton and Hove Albion at home against Crystal Palace at 3 PM ET. The Seagulls stay at home after settling for a 0-0 draw with Aston Villa on February 13th. The Eagles are off a 3-0 loss at home to Burnley on February 13th. Brighton is a -0.75 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25. The NBC Sports Network has the broadcast.

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MLB Baseball Futures Bet: MInnesota Twins to Win 2021 World Series

by Al McMordie

Monday, Feb 22, 2021

It's that time of the year again when I pull out my crystal ball to select a team to win this year's World Series.  And my success the last several years with Futures wagers is likely unparalleled.  Here's a quick review for newcomers.  In College Basketball, we cashed Virginia as our Preseason Futures wager (at 22-1 odds) to win the 2019 Title.  Also in 2019, we cashed our Futures wager on the Washington Nationals in Baseball, at 18-1 odds.  This past season we followed up the Nationals with our Preseason Futures pick on the Dodgers, at 4-1 odds.  And that made it three winning MLB Futures in four seasons, as we had Houston, at 10-1 odds, in 2017.  In hockey, we delivered with the Tampa Bay Lightning this past season, at 7-1 odds.  And we cashed the Spurs (14-1, 2014), Warriors (5-1, 2016), and Warriors again (-160, 2018) in the NBA.  Our preseason pick on the Baylor Bears (12-1 odds) in College Basketball will also have a decent shot to cash in the upcoming March Madness tournament.  Let's take a look at the upcoming 2021 baseball season.  It's my belief that the two best teams (Los Angeles Dodgers; San Diego Padres) reside in the National League West division.  But having the best team is not the same thing as winning the Championship.  In 2019, for example, we went with the Nationals who weren't the best team, but (at 18-1 odds) I believed they would always have a puncher's chance (or, more specifically, a "Pitcher's chance") with the 1-2 combination of Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer.  For this 2021 season, I don't believe there's enough value for me to take either the Dodgers (+370 at BetAnySports) or the Padres (8-1 odds at BetAnySports).  So, instead, I will look at backing an American League team.  And the Minnesota Twins stand out to me as having the best value.  Currently, the odds on the Twins to win the World Series are 22-1 (at each of Bovada, BetAnySports and BetOnline).  And the odds on the Twins to win the American League pennant are 9-1 (at each of BetAnySports and BetOnline).  In contrast, the World Series odds at BetAnySports have the New York Yankees at +625 and the Chicago White Sox at +1000.  By my numbers, neither the Yankees nor White Sox rate better than Minnesota, so it's an easy decision for me to go with the Twins as the best value play.There's no doubt that the White Sox are everyone's darlings in the AL Central division.  Last season, the division title went to the Twins, who went 24-7 at home, which was the best home record in baseball.  But they faltered at home in the playoffs against the Houston Astros.  So, perhaps due to last season's flame-out, a lot of pundits are looking past Minnesota.  But not me, as I believe this will be the year that the Twins finally back up a strong regular season with some success in October.   Chicago does have a lot of talent, but it might be a year away from being post-season contenders.  And if Chicago stumbles, the division is clearly Minnesota's to lose.  But regardless of whether the Twins win the division, it should make the post-season.  The Twins' line-up is a solid collection of mostly veterans (Kepler, Cruz, Buxton, Donaldson, Polanco, Sano) with a very talented rookie outfielder in Alex Kirilloff ready to step up.  But it's the pitching that will tell the story for this team.  The top three starters of Maeta, Berrios, and Pineda are sneaky good.  And the Twins addressed their bullpen issues with a huge Free Agent signing which not only should help them immensely, but also hurt their main competitor.  Somehow, the White Sox let veteran closer Alex Colome get away, only to sign with their division rivals after arguably his best season (2-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 12 saves).  Even if Colome isn't the Twins' go-to man in the 9th inning, he will still be a big boost to their bullpen.  Don't be surprised when the Twins finally come together this October.  Take Minnesota at 22-1 odds to win the World Series and 9-1 odds to win the American League pennant.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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NCAA Sunday Afternoon Basketball: Ohio State/Michigan Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Feb 21, 2021

The CBS Sunday afternoon college basketball game features a Big Ten battle between two of the top-four teams in the nation.Michigan took the court for the first time since January 22nd last Sunday at Wisconsin after a three-week pause after the athletic department shut down all activities. The Wolverines fell behind by 14 points before holding the Badgers to 7 of 28 shooting in the second half in a 67-59 victory as a small favorite. Michigan followed up that victory with a 71-64 win at home against Rutgers as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday. Sophomore Franz Wagner scored 20 points to improve his 12.6 points-per-game scoring average. Hunter Dickinson added 10 points and eight rebounds. The freshman leads the team with a 14.6 points-per-game scoring average along with a 7.8 rebounds-per-game mark. Senior Isaiah Livers's 14.5 points-per-game average is second on the team. Three other players score at least 8.1 points-per-game for head coach Juwan Howard.With a 15-1 record on the season, Michigan ranks third in the nation in the Associated Press poll. The Wolverines lead the Big Ten with a 10-1 record. Their lone loss was at Minnesota. This contest will be Michigan’s just sixth game away from Crisler Arena this season, but they have nice wins on the road at Maryland, Purdue, and at the Kohl Center last Sunday against Wisconsin. Michigan ranks seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency according to the metrics at kenpom. The Wolverines are 15th with a 56.3% shooting percentage inside the arc, which helps elevate their effective field goal percentage to 56.6%, tenth nationally. They are making 38.0% of their 3-point shots, ranking 24th nationally. Michigan registers an assist in 57.7% rate of their made field goals, 54th nationally. Only 6.5% of their shot attempts are getting blocked, 28th nationally.The Wolverines are 7th in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They are second in opponent’s effective field goal percentage with a 43.1% mark. Michigan is also second nationally by limiting their opponents to just 40.6% shooting inside the arc. These opponents make 32.0% of their 3-pointers, 92nd nationally. This team does not foul as they rank 22nd nationally in foul-rate. They block 12.8% of their opponent’s shots, 31st nationally. They hold their opponents to just a 43.5% assist rate, 23rd nationally.Ohio State won their seventh straight game on Thursday in a 92-82 win at Penn State as a 4.5-point favorite. The Buckeyes trails by 8 points at one point but a 15-0 run in the second half propelled them to the victory. E.J. Liddell scored 23 points. The sophomore leads the team that can go eleven deep from their bench with a 15.5 points-per-game scoring average. Head coach Chris Holtmann returned five of the nine players that played at least 10 minutes per game last year for the group that finished 21-10 with nine wins in their final twelve Big Ten games. Holtmann then added three impact transfers in the offseason: Abel Porter was the starting point guard at Utah State; Justice Sueing scored 14.6 points-per-game as a sophomore at California; Seth Towns is a former Ivy League Player of the Year at Harvard.The Buckeyes opened the Big Ten season by losing two of their first three games. Yet Holtmann has seen his team win ten of their last eleven games to rise to third place in the highly-competitive conference with a 12-4 record. Ohio State has lost to Minnesota, Northwestern, and twice to Purdue. The Buckeyes have Purdue while notching two wins apiece against defeated Wisconsin, Maryland, and Rutgers. They also have a resume-building victory against UCLA in non-conference play. With an 18-4 overall record, Ohio State ranks fourth in the current Associated Press poll. The Buckeyes are third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to the numbers at kenpom. They are 19th in free throw rate. Ohio State is 62nd in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. Holtmann’s team is third in the Big Ten by holding their opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 48.7%.BookMaker lists this matchup as a pick ‘em with the total set at 146. The CBS broadcast begins at 1 PM ET.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Basketball, NBA, EPL and NHL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Feb 21, 2021

The Sunday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, the NHL, and the English Premier League.The college basketball card tips off at 11:30 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network with Rhode Island visiting George Washington. The Rams raised their record to 10-12 with their 91-89 win against Dayton as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Colonials, 3-9, play for the first time since January 17th, when they lost to Dayton, 67-54. Rhode Island is a 9-point road favorite with the total set at 140.5 (all odds from BetOnline).Ohio State hosts Michigan on CBS at 1 PM ET. The Buckeyes have won seven in a row to improve to 18-4 with their 92-82 win at Penn State as a 4.5-point favorite on Thursday. The Wolverines raised their record to 15-1 with a 71-64 win against Rutgers as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday. Ohio State is a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 146.Houston plays at home against Cincinnati on ESPN at 1 PM ET. The Cougars fell to 17-3 with a 68-63 upset loss at Wichita State as a 7.5-point favorite on Thursday. The Bearcats, 7-7, come off a 69-68 win against Central Florida as a 6-point favorite last Sunday. Houston is a 13-point favorite with the total at 136.5.St. Bonaventure is at home against Davidson on the NBC Sports Network at 3:30 PM ET. The Bonnies, 10-3, lost their second in three games with their 67-64 loss at VCU on February 12th as a 3-point underdog. The Wildcats, 11-5, won their fifth straight on Thursday with their 101-51 victory against Southern Virginia. St. Bonaventure is a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 132.5. UNLV visits San Jose State on the CBS Sports Network at 4 PM ET. The Rebels, 9-11, defeated the Spartans on Friday by a 76-60 score as a 14.5-point favorite. San Jose State dropped to 5-14 with the loss. UNLV is a 14-point road favorite with the total at 144.5.Iowa hosts Penn State on FS1 at 5 PM ET. The Hawkeyes, 16-6, won their third straight game on Thursday with their 73-63 win at Wisconsin as a 6.5-point favorite. The Nittany Lions, 7-11, lost their third in a row with a 92-82 loss to Ohio State as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday. Iowa is an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 157. Lehigh visits Loyola-Maryland on the CBS Sports Network at 6 PM ET. The Mountain Hawks fell to 3-7 after their 92-68 loss at Bucknell as a 5.5-point underdog back on January 31st. The Leopards improved to 2-7 with their 88-69 win against LaFayette last Sunday as a 3.5-point favorite. Xavier plays at home against Butler on FS1 at 7 PM ET. The Musketeers fell to 11-4 with their 93-84 loss at St. John’s as a 7-point underdog on Tuesday. The Bulldogs dropped to 7-12 with a 73-57 loss to Marquette as a 1.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Xavier is an 8.5-point favorite with the total at 132.5.Eight games are on the NBA docket. Boston visits New Orleans on ABC at 3:30 PM ET. The Celtics won their second of their last three games with their 121-109 victory against Atlanta as a 4.5-point favorite on Friday. The Pelicans have lost five of six games with their 132-104 loss to Phoenix as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Boston is a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 232.Brooklyn visits the Los Angeles Clippers on ESPN at 8 PM ET. The Nets won their fifth straight game on Thursday with their 109-98 upset win in the Staples Center against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Clippers won their fifth game in their last six with their 116-112 upset win against Utah as a 1-point underdog on Friday. Four games are on the NHL schedule. Washington is at home against New Jersey on NBC at 2 PM ET. The Capitals won their second straight game on Thursday with their 3-1 win against Buffalo. The Devils won their third in a row with their 3-2 victory at Boston on Thursday. Washington is a -166 money line favorite. Philadelphia plays Boston in Lake Tahoe in the NHL Outdoors Series on the NBC Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Flyers lost their third in four with a 3-2 loss to the New York Rangers on Thursday. The Bruins lost to New Jersey by a 3-2 score on Thursday. Boston is a -182 money line favorite. Matchweek 25 in the English Premier League continues with four matches on the NBC Peacock app. Tottenham visits West Ham United at 7 AM ET as a -0.25 money line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Leicester City plays at Aston Villa at 9 AM ET as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with the total at 2.75. Manchester City visits Arsenal at 11:30 AM ET as a -1 goal line road favorite with the total set at 2.75. Manchester United is at home against Newcastle United at 2 PM ET as a -1.50 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.

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NCAA Saturday Afternoon Basketball: West Virginia/Texas Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Feb 20, 2021

The Saturday afternoon college basketball game on ABC features a rematch of two nationally-ranked Big 12 teams currently tied in the conference standings.West Virginia had their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 91-90 upset loss in double-overtime to Oklahoma as a 4-point favorite. The Mountaineers missed 10 of their 21 shots from the charity stripe, and they only made 7 of 24 from 3-point land in the setback.Derek Culver led the team with a career-high 29 points with 14 rebounds for his tenth double-double this year. The junior forward is scoring 15.1 points-per-game and averaging 10.4 rebounds-per-game. Sean McNeil added 21 points and is fourth on the team with an 11.7 points-per-game scoring average. Miles McBride leads the team with a 16.2 points-per-game scoring average after the sophomore poured in 19 points.West Virginia is ranked 13th in the nation by the Associated Press with a 14-6 record. Their impending showdown with Baylor last Monday got postponed due to COVID. The team went on hiatus for two weeks after a COVID outbreak within their program in mid-January. The Mountaineers are 6-4 since losing two players in their frontline rotation at the beginning of the month. Isaiah Cottrell suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in their game against Northeastern. The four-star freshman was averaging only 5.6 minutes-per-game, but he gave the Mountaineers’ depth at forward with potential upside as their highest-rated freshman. The more significant loss was Oscar Tshiebwe, who stepped away from the program for personal reasons. The sophomore led the team with a 10.2 points-per-game scoring average last season but had taken a step back this year by scoring 8.1 points-per-game while adding 3.8 rebounds-per-game. West Virginia is tied for fourth place in the Big 12 standings with a 7-4 record. They have resume-building wins against Kansas, Texas Tech (twice), and Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers' six losses are against Gonzaga, Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma (twice), and Florida. “Press Virginia” has not been effective this season for Huggins as his team ranks only fourth in the Big 12 with a 20.0% defensive turnover rate. West Virginia is 60th in the nation and seventh in the Big 12 in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. The Mountaineers are 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency because of their ability to generate second-chance scoring opportunities. West Virginia ranks 10th with a 36.2% offensive rebounding rate. Texas had lost four of five games but have since responded with two straight victories against Kansas State and TCU. The Longhorns’ game with Oklahoma on Thursday got postponed because of COVID. Shaka Smart’s team has had several games lost this season due to the pandemic, with both the players and the coaching staff missing time.The Longhorns rank 12th in the AP poll with a 13-5 record. They have several impressive victories against Indiana and North Carolina en route to winning the Maui Invitational while adding wins against Oklahoma State, Kansas, and West Virginia. Their five losses are to Villanova, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State.Smart’s job was in jeopardy last season. The team hit a low point in an 81-52 loss at Iowa State. Yet Smart rallied his team to win five of their last six games to finish with a 19-12 record in a season interrupted to COVID. Texas was on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament. Smart's team has won 16 of their last 20 games since that drubbing to the Cyclones. The Longhorns returned twelve players, including all five starters from last year. Smart added a likely one-and-done freshman in Greg Brown, who is contributing 11.5 points-per-game and 7.5 rebounds-per-game. Texas has five players scoring at least 8.4 points-per-game, led by Andrew Jones with a 15.9 points-per-game average.Texas ranks 20th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. On defense, the Longhorns are 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency fueled by their half-court defense as they hold their opponents to a 45.5% effective field goal percentage, 20th nationally.This game is a rematch of Texas’ 72-70 victory in Morgantown on January 9th as a 1.5-point underdog. The Longhorns are a 3-point favorite at BetAnySports, with the total set at 147.5. The ABC broadcast starts at 3 PM ET.

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NCAA Basketball Revenge System

by Al McMordie

Saturday, Feb 20, 2021

We're in the midst of the College Basketball season.  Normally, this would be the time of year when the teams would be playing a conference opponent for the 2nd time.  However, this season, the teams in many (but not all) conferences have been playing back-to-back games against the same opponent all season.  Regardless, let's talk about how we can approach these regular season second meetings.One thing I like to do is consider revenge.  And if I can play on a good basketball team at home, which was blown out in the first regular season meeting, then even better.  So, let's put all of these factors together for our College Basketball system.  What we want to do is:Play on any winning College Basketball team at home in the regular season, if it was blown out by 27 or more points earlier in the season by its opponent.Since 1990, our revenge-minded teams have gone 155-110-11 ATS (58.4%), including 6-1 ATS this season, and 7-3-1 ATS last season.And, although there's nothing wrong with 58.4%, we like to try to improve things a bit by adding another tightener, or two.   For example, if we play on underdogs of more than 2 points that lost their game right before this revenge match, then our 155-110-11 system zooms to 50-22-3 ATS (69.4%) since 1990.Today, on Saturday, one college basketball team fits this 50-22-3 ATS subset of our general system.  And that's to play on the Minnesota Golden Gophers +6 over Illinois.  The Illini blew out the Gophers by 27 points, 92-65, in December,  in Champaign, and we actually had a big play on Illinois in that game.  For the season, Minnesota is 13-9, including a powerful 13-1 at home (where it covers the spread by an average of 5.35 ppg).  And they're the only team to defeat the #3-ranked Michigan Wolverines, who they blew out by 18 points here, in Minneapolis.  Don't be surprised if the Gophers get their revenge on Sunday. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle, NBA, EPL, NHL and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Feb 20, 2021

The Saturday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, the NHL, and the English Premier League.The college basketball card tips off at noon PM ET. Central Florida plays at Tulane on ESPN2 in a pick ‘em matchup with the total set at 127.5 (all odds from BetOnline). Indiana hosts Michigan State on ESPN as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 135.Villanova is at home against UConn on Fox at 1 PM ET. The Wildcats are ranked 10th in the nation in the AP poll and are 6.5-point favorites, with the total at 137.5. Tennessee plays at home against Kentucky on CBS, at 1 pm. The Volunteers are ranked 19th by the AP and are 7-point favorites with an over/under of 135.Kansas hosts Texas Tech in a battle of nationally-ranked Big 12 teams at 2 PM ET. The Jayhawks are ranked 23rd by the AP, while the Red Raiders are ranked 15th. Kansas is a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 134. Missouri visits South Carolina on ESPN2. The Tigers are ranked 20th by the AP and are 3.5-point road favorites with an over/under of 151.5. VCU plays at home against George Mason on the NBC Sports Network at 2:30 PM ET as a 10-point favorite with the total at 133.Texas is at home against West Virginia on ABC at 3 PM ET in another nationally-ranked showdown of Big 12 teams. The Longhorns are ranked 12th in the AP poll, with the Mountaineers ranked 13th. Texas is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 147. BYU visits Loyola-Marymount on the CBS Sports Network as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 137. Stanford plays at Washington State on ESPN2 at 4 PM ET as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 134. LSU hosts Auburn on ESPN as a 4-point favorite with the total at 163. Seton Hall travels to Georgetown on the CBS Sports Network at 5:30 PM ET as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 141. Oklahoma visits Iowa State on ESPN2 at 6 PM ET. The ninth-ranked Sooners are an 11-point road favorite with a total of 142.5. North Carolina is at home against Louisville on ESPN as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 139.5. San Diego State visits Fresno State at 7:30 PM ET on the CBS Sports Network. The 25th ranked Aztecs are 14-point road favorites with a total of 129.5. Gonzaga plays at home against San Diego on ESPN2 at 8 PM ET.  The number-one ranked Bulldogs are a 32.5-point favorite with an over/under of 154.5. Virginia visits Duke as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 131.5 on ESPN. Colorado is at Oregon State on ESPNU as a 7-point favorite with the total at 135.5. California plays at Washington on ESPNU at 10 PM ET in a pick ‘em matchup with an over/under of 140.5. UCLA hosts Arizona State on ESPN2 as a 7.5-point favorite with the total at 145.Five games are on the NBA slate starting at 8 PM ET, with Golden State playing at Charlotte. The Los Angeles Lakers host the Miami Heat at 8:30 PM ET on ABC. In the first meeting between these two teams since the NBA Finals, the Lakers are a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 214. The card concludes at 10 PM ET with Portland at home against Washington as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 242.Twelve games are on the NHL schedule. Two games begin the card at 12:30 PM ET. New Jersey is at home against Buffalo as a -120 money line favorite with the over/under at 5.5. Washington hosts the New York Rangers as a -145 money line favorite with the total at 6. Vegas plays against Colorado outdoors in Lake Tahoe on NBC at 3 PM ET. These two teams played on Tuesday, with the Avalanche winning in Las Vegas, 3-2. Colorado is a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The NHL card concludes at 10 PM ET with Edmonton playing at home against Calgary.Four matches continue Matchweek 25 in the English Premier League. Chelsea visits Southampton on the NBC Sports Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -0.75 goal line road favorite with the total at 2.5. Burley hosts West Bromwich Albion on the NBC Sports Network at 10 AM ET as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25. Liverpool plays at home against Everton on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -1.25 goal line favorite with a total of 3. Fulham is at home against Sheffield United on the NBC Peacock app at 3 PM ET as a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25.

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NCAA Friday Night Basketball: Utah State/Boise State Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Feb 19, 2021

Friday night on FS1 features a rematch from Wednesday involving two teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble battling for first place in the Mountain West Conference.Boise State defeated Utah State two days ago, 79-70, as a 1.5-point favorite. Derrick Alston led the way with 26 points. The 6’9 senior is scoring 17.4 points-per-game while making 42.6% of his shots from 3-point range. Marcus Shaver, Jr. added 12 points, with the junior third on the team with an 11.6 points-per-game scoring average. Senior forward Abu Kigab is the Broncos’ second-leading scorer with a 12.5 points-per-game scoring average.Head coach Leon Rice has built a consistently strong program in Boise. After failing to register at least 20 wins for the first time since the 2011-12 season two years ago, the Broncos’ rebounded with a 20-12 campaign last year that would have likely concluded with an invitation to the NIT. Rice returned four rotation players from that group, including Alston, who earned second-team All-Mountain West Conference honors. Alston may be the top NBA prospect in the conference. Kigab was a 20-game starter last season who averaged 11.1 points-per-game. Rice brought in six transfers, including Shaver, who averaged double-digits in scoring for two seasons at Portland. Two former top-100 recruits transferred from Arizona, Emmanuel Akot and Devonaire Doutrive, are averaging more than 20 minutes-per-game. Akot is finding a role with the team with three double-digit scoring efforts in his last five games. Doutrive is questionable tonight with a dental issue. Boise State, 16-4, leads the Mountain West Conference with a 13-3 record. The Broncos may need the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament as they are ranked 60th in the current kenpom ratings. They have a quality non-conference victory against BYU. Their four losses are against Houston in non-conference play along with Colorado State and twice to Nevada. Rice has a balanced team that ranks 59th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 54th in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. Boise State makes the most of its offensive possessions. They are fifth in the nation, with only 5.5% of their shot attempts getting blocked. They only turn the ball over in 15.9% of their possessions, 26th nationally, due to opponents only registering steals in 6.9% of their possessions, 14th nationally. The Broncos limit their opponents to rebound only 22.1% of their missed shots, ranking 13th in the nation.Utah State got 32 points and ten rebounds on Wednesday from Neemias Queta. The 7’0 junior is scoring 13.5 points-per-game while adding 9.2 rebounds-per-game. Marco Anthony added 11 points against Boise State. The junior guard, a transfer from Virginia, averages 11.2 points-per-game. Justin Bean scored another 10 points. The junior forward scores 10.1 points-per-game and pulls down 7.2 rebounds-per-game.The Aggies, 14-6, are tied with Colorado State for second place in the Mountain West Conference with an 11-3 record. They have two quality wins against San Diego State. Their three losses in conference play are against UNLV along with the Rams and Broncos. They have non-conference losses against BYU, VCU, and South Dakota State, with the latter being the most significant liability in their NCAA Tournament resume. Craig Smith’s team ranks 52nd in the kenpom ratings.Led by Queta and Bean, Utah State is 20th in the nation with a 34.9% offensive rebounding rate. The Aggies rank 110th in adjusted offensive efficiency. This team is elite on the other end of the court. Utah State is 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. Queta’s presence down low helps them block 14.7% of their opponent’s shot attempts, 11th nationally. These opponents make only 42.7% of their shots inside the arc, fifth nationally. Utah State also holds their opponents to second-chance scoring opportunities in just 20.9% of their possessions, fifth-best in the nation.The weakness of this Utah State team could be their lack of a traditional point guard. That is the role Sam Merrill embraced while scoring 19.7 points-per-game. Queta is second on the team with a 2.8 assists-per-game mark. Freshman Rollie Worster leads the team with a 3.4 assists-per-game average.Boise State hopes to extend their home winning streak to eleven games in tonight’s rematch at 10 PM ET. BetAnySports lists the Broncos as a 1.5-point favorite with the total set at 142.

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