Articles

NBA Weekend Shootaround: May 1-2

by Sean Murphy

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

There are only two weeks remaining in the NBA regular season and the sprint (or limp in some cases) to the finish is well underway.Here's a look at some easily-overlooked spots to consider before you do your weekend NBA line shopping.SaturdayDetroit at CharlotteDespite missing a number of players due to 'injury management', the Pistons got up for the Mavericks at home on Thursday and actually hung with them for three quarters before ultimately falling by 10 points. Keep in mind, Dallas was without Luka Doncic and for as well as Detroit played, shooting better than 50% from the field, it still couldn't stay within arm's reach against an undermanned opponent. The Pistons have for all intents of purposes already moved on to next season. Next up is a trip to Charlotte to face a Hornets squad that is sure to be in a foul mood after back-to-back losses against the Bucks and Celtics. The Hornets are of course still fighting for playoff positioning, entering Friday's action in eighth place in the Eastern Conference. They certainly haven't given up on the season, even if a deep playoff run is unlikely, with LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk close to returning. The Pistons should be back at full strength for this one but they'll be hard-pressed to keep pace with the Hornets. Keep an eye on the line as the Hornets could be worth a look at a reasonable price point. Indiana at Oklahoma CityThe Thunder came out flat as expected at home against the Pelicans on Thursday night, unable to build off the positive momentum gained from Tuesday's upset win in Boston - their first victory in what seemed like an eternity (it was their first since March 31st). Now the Thunder draw a more favorable matchup against an injury-riddled Pacers squad that continues to play at a break-neck pace, often to its own detriment. Despite Thursday's poor showing, Oklahoma City is actually healthier than its been in a while and well-positioned to play spoiler against the playoff-hungry Pacers on Saturday. For whatever reason the Thunder appeared disinterested in pushing the tempo against a tired Pelicans squad playing the second of back-to-backs, and shot a miserable 38% from the field, but they should bounce back in what has the potential to be a track meet on Saturday night. If Oklahoma City is catching a generous helping of points again in this spot, it may be go-time for Thunder backers. While we're likely going to see an exorbitant total, the 'over' could be worth a look as well.SundayNew York at HoustonPerhaps Knicks bettors have been lulled into a false sense of security after a wildly-successful six-game homestand that saw New York go 5-1 straight-up and against the spread. This is precisely the type of spot where a young, confident team like the Knicks could get tripped up as they travel for a sleepy Sunday night matchup in Houston (against a Rockets squad they've already defeated by 22 points this season). This trip will get much tougher for New York after Sunday's contest as it will face the Grizzlies, Nuggets, Suns, Clippers and Lakers in succession - a murderer's row of Western Conference contenders. It would be easy to overlook the Rockets, who will be in a back-to-back spot after hosting the Warriors on Saturday. While Houston's season is essentially over, it hasn't thrown in the towel just yet, as evidenced by Thursday's upset win over the Bucks here at home. Toronto at Los AngelesThis is a tough scheduling spot for the Raptors, who are simply playing out the string with no legitimate playoff hopes still worth reaching for. Toronto will be playing its third game in four nights, with two of those coming at altitude in Denver and Salt Lake City. The Lakers are rested and ready having returned home from a four-game road trip to host the Kings on Friday night. Of course, Los Angeles is gradually getting back to full strength with Anthony Davis working his way back to a full minutes load. With a tougher game against Denver on deck on Monday perhaps we see some 'load management' from the Lakers here but I'm quite honestly not sure that plays into their decision-making. Los Angeles doesn't really have the luxury of taking games off down the stretch as it enters the weekend in the middle of the pack in the Western Conference playoff picture. More help will obviously be coming with Lebron James' return imminent (at the time of writing on Friday). For now look for Los Angeles to take advantage of every winnable game on its schedule.

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EPL Soccer: Leicester City vs. Southampton Preview, Odds and Prediction - 04/30/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

Friday English Premier League Preview: Leicester City versus Southampton. Leicester City visits Southampton on Peacock at 3 PM ET on a battle between two teams moving in different directions. The Foxes have won three straight matches after their 2-1 comeback victory against Crystal Palace on Monday. Leicester City conceded the opening goal 12 minutes into the contest when Wilfried Zaha scored for the Eagles. Timothy Castagne scored the equalizer five minutes into the second half before Kelechi Iheanacho netted the winner in the 80th minute. That triumph was the Nigerian’s tenth goal for the Foxes in his last eight matches across all competitions. He has scored in four straight games. Jamie Vardy still leads the team with 13 goals.Manager Brendan Rodgers has his team comfortably in third place in the English Premier League table with 62 points. Leicester City is four points ahead of Chelsea and seven points up on West Ham United. They trail Manchester United for second place by five points, and they are a distant 15 points behind Manchester City at the top of the table. Leicester City is currently in third place in the EPL with 56 points. They trail Manchester United for second place by 10 points. They are one point ahead of Chelsea and West Ham, who are on their heels with 55 points. Liverpool and Tottenham are two points behind with 54 points in the crowded top-end of the table. This side also has an impending showdown with Chelsea for the FA Cup title on May 15th in their first attempt to win that trophy in 52 years.The Foxes are getting healthier. James Justin and Harvey Barnes are both out indefinitely with injuries. Wes Morgan is a doubt with a back injury but the veteran Jamaican defender has only played 16 minutes this season. Southampton has lost three straight matches across all competitions after a 2-1 loss at Tottenham on April 21st. The Saints took the lead in the 30th minute from a Danny Ings’ goal. The Hotspurs leveled the game at 1-1 at the 60th-minute mark. It was then Son Heung-Min’s penalty kick opportunity at the 90th minute that continued their losing streak. Manager Ralph Hassenhuttl’s team has lost 12 of their last 15 matches in the English Premier League, and they have lost 12 of their last 17 games across all competitions. Southampton is in 15th place in the EPL with 36 points. They are nine points clear of relegation with Fulham in 18th placers with 27 points. The Saints return home to St. Mary’s Stadium, where they snapped a five-game winless streak in their previous match at home on April 4th with a 3-2 victory against Burnley. Danny Ings will miss this match as he is probably out the season with a hamstring injury he suffered in the game against Tottenham. He leads the Saints with 10 goals. Che Adams inherits the primary scoring duties. He has seven goals in the EPL this season.This contest is the third meeting between these two teams in 2021. Leicester City defeated Southampton in the semifinals of the FA Cup at Wembley Stadium on April 18th. The Foxes also won the reverse fixture at home at King Power Stadium, 2-0, on January 16th.BetOnline lists Leicester City as a -0.5 money line road favorite with the total set at 2.5.Computer prediction:  Southampton 2 Leicester City 1

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2021 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part 3: The Over-bet Pretenders

by Al McMordie

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

The 147th running of the Kentucky Derby is tomorrow, and we've been previewing the race over the past few days.  On Wednesday and Thursday, we covered the top contenders and the value plays.  And tomorrow, we'll take a look at the bombs to use in exotic wagers.  For today's article, we'll be zeroing in on the over-bet pretenders.In many ways the 2021 Kentucky Derby could be subtitled "back to normal".  After going way off course in 2020, the Derby will look like the Derby again this coming weekend.  It will be run on the first Saturday in May; it will likely top the headlines for the weekend; and there will be real fans in the stands.  But one thing will yet again be different.  For the first time in a long time, Bob Baffert will not have a strong favorite in the race (and he will only have one horse entered as well).  In fact, the California-based trainer's Medina Spirit will likely be no better than the fourth-favorite when the gates open at about 6:55 pm ET this Saturday.    So does this mean that the 2021 version is a wide open Derby that could yield a winner such as Mine that Bird or Giacomo?  Not likely, but you could still get a decent price (as was the case last year when Baffert's Authentic won at odds of 8-1).  So who are the most likely winners?  Where will the value lie?  Who will be over-bet?  And what longshots are the ones to include in your exotics (exactas, trifectas, etc).  We now present Part 3 of our preview of the 2021 Run for the Roses: Over-bet Pretenders: Hot Rod Charlie (Doug O’Neill, Flavien Prat)    What does it tell you that leading jockey Rosario jumped off of the son of Preakness winner Oxbow to ride Rock Your World this Saturday?  On the surface, a horse that has the second-most qualifying points, ran second to Essential Quality in last Fall’s BC Juvenile and that won the Louisiana Derby in his latest tune-up might seem like a serious contender.  But Hot Rod Charlie was 94-1 in the Juvenile race and he beat a weak field of only seven others at the Fair Grounds while recording a luke-warm speed figure.  He’s opened up as the fourth choice at 8-1, but fair odds would be closer to 20-1 or even higher.     Bourbonic (Todd Pletcher, Kendrick Carmouche)    It’s rare for a horse to go off at lower odds in the Derby than he did winning a big prep race like the Wood Memorial.  But that’s almost certain to happen with Bourbonic.  The son of Bernardini took the Wood in dramatic fashion on April 3 at odds of 72-1.  There are at least a couple of reasons to think that his odds in the Derby could be less than half that.  He has to be considered the top horse from the New York circuit competing, and that means NY bettors and fans of Pletcher could be backing him with plenty of money.  And who doesn’t love a stone-cold closer who comes from out of the clouds?  Those who think there will be a pace meltdown will likely turn in this direction.  But he won’t have to negotiate his way through just eight horses to do it this time, but rather 19 and that's a much taller order.    Medina Spirit (Bob Baffert, John Velasquez)    Here is the lone Baffert entry this year and there are several red flags that go along with this one.  First, Medina Spirit was a $35K purchase at auction and is by a relatively unknown sire named Protonico.  Next is the fact that, despite going off as the odds-on favorite in the Santa Anita Derby he was soundly beaten by Rock Your World and there’s little to suggest that he could turn the tables on that one, let alone the 18 others in here.  Third, although fast, Medina Spirit’s races suggest that he is much more suited to be a miler or even a sprinter.  It’s rare to see a Baffert horse in the Derby at odds of 10-1 or higher, but you should demand 30-1 on this one before diving in and that likely won’t happen.Our 2021 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part 4:  The Bombs to Use in Exotics will be published tomorrow, on Saturday.

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Will the 2022 NFL Rookie Quarterback Class be as Weak as Expected?

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

In the run-up to the 2021 NFL draft, many observers commented that teams may feel more pressure to find their quarterback of the future since the incoming rookie class for next year’s draft looks to be thin. Yet, isn’t this the same thought every year? Perhaps a draft class that finally featured Trevor Lawrence who was winning National Championships as a freshman three years ago makes the 2021 quarterback group special. At this time last year, one would be hard-pressed to find someone confidently predicting that BYU’s Zach Wilson would develop into the second player taken in the draft. As Hall of Fame executive Bill Polian commented about the potential lack of quality quarterback prospects next year: “Somebody always crops up.” A quick glance at the prospects in college shows plenty of names that observers and NFL brain trusts might fall in love with. It is challenging to accurately assess the returning college quarterbacks next fall after a shortened season with limited practices given COVID protocols. Hopefully, college football will be able to return to a normal practice regimen which will help the development of the quarterbacks looking to impress NFL scouts. Observers are more likely to be surprised than disappointed with another year of development. Below is a list of ten players who may grow into being a first-round draft pick in April of 2022.Spencer Rattler: NFL scouts have learned to trust quarterbacks groomed by Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley. If Jalen Hurts becomes the starting quarterback in Philadelphia, he will join Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray as NFL starting quarterbacks that went through Riley’s program. Rattler started slowly last year before settled down to throw 15 touchdowns to two interceptions in his final seven games. J.T. Daniels: The former five-star quarterback was in the shortlist conversations with Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields coming out of high school before injuries marred his growth at USC. With a full season as the starter at Georgia, Daniels will draw plenty of attention.Sam Howell: The North Carolina quarterback is considered the most polished passer in the class. He demonstrated his potential last year with 443 passing yards against Virginia and 550 passing yards against Wake Forest. Daniel Jones and Matt Ryan are comparables of quarterbacks with big arms who came from the ACC to find success in the NFL.Kedon Slovis: He is the quarterback who beat out J.T. Daniels for the starting job at USC, and he is the reason Daniels now plays in the SEC. Slovis has a quick release that NFL scouts covet. USC quarterbacks remain attractive to NFL brass.Tyler Shough: He was the heir apparent to Justin Herbert before a disappointing 2020 compelled him to transfer. He can put up big numbers against Big 12 defenses at Texas Tech, and then his 6’5 frame will take over to entice scouts. Matt Corral: He completed 71% of his passes in his first year at Ole Miss under head coach Lane Kiffin. He will likely put up video game numbers next season in the Rebels' offense. While just 6’1, his accuracy could make scouts think of Baker Mayfield or even Drew Brees.Bo Nix: The Auburn quarterback suffered from a sophomore slump last season after a freshman campaign that compelled quarterback coach guru Jordan Palmer to proclaim him the future top pick in the 2022 draft. A resurgent junior season in the SEC would elevate Nix once again. Desmond Ridder: The Cincinnati quarterback may be the closest comparison to a dual-threat Kyler Murray-type in the class. He completed 66.2% of his passes last season, and he has demonstrated himself as a winner with a 30-5 record with the Bearcats. Grayson McCall: The Coastal Carolina quarterback is still considered raw as he enters his redshirt junior season, but he came off a breakout campaign where he completed 69% of his passes with 26 touchdown passes and only three interceptions. The Chanticleers do not run a pro-style offense, but all it takes is one NFL offensive coordinator convinced he can lift enough of the Coastal Carolina offense to find success at the next level for McCall.Mystery Player to Come Out of Nowhere: This list above is not exhaustive of the potential quarterbacks who could make a big jump in development under a full year of coaching and competition. No one was predicting that Mac Jones would be picked by the New England Patriots in the first round at this time last year. Call it the “recency effect” or call it being a “prisoner of the moment”. It is human nature to overestimate the value of what is most recently experienced. For NFL scouts worried about finding a quarterback in the 2022 NFL draft, there are plenty of intriguing candidates. Good luck - TDG.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, MLB, NHL and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/30/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

The Friday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the English Premier League. The second and third rounds of the NFL draft start at 7 PM ET on ABC, ESPN, and the NFL Network.Eight games are on the NBA docket. The card begins at 7 PM ET, with Philadelphia hosting Atlanta as a 9-point favorite at DraftKings. At 7:30 PM ET, Washington visits Cleveland as a -7-point road favorite at DraftKings. Boston plays at home against San Antonio as a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings. Memphis is at home against Orlando as a 12-point favorite with the total set at 223 (all odds from BetOnline unless otherwise indicated). Brooklyn hosts Portland as a 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings. Milwaukee travels to Chicago at 9 PM ET. Phoenix plays at home against Utah at 10 PM ET as a 5-point favorite at DraftKings. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against Sacramento as a 10:30 PM ET as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 223.Four games are on the NHL schedule. Montreal plays at home against Winnipeg at 7 PM ET as a -110 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Colorado is at home against San Jose as a -265 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.The Los Angeles Kings travels to Anaheim at 10 PM ET as a -126 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Vegas visits Arizona as a -188 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Fifteen games are on the MLB slate. The card begins at 6:35 PM ET with Pittsburgh hosting St. Louis with both teams a -105 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The New York Mets play at Philadelphia as a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Miami visits Washington. The New York Yankees are at home against Detroit as a -340 money line favorite with a total of 8. Atlanta plays at Toronto at 7:07 PM ET. Cincinnati hosts the Chicago Cubs at 7:10 PM ET as a -109 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Houston visits Tampa Bay as a -125 money line road favorite at BookMaker, with the total at 8. Boston travels to Texas at 8:05 PM ET as a -161 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at Milwaukee at 8:10 PM ET. Minnesota plays at home against Kansas City as a -143 money line favorite with a total of 8. Cleveland visits the Chicago White Sox as a -130 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Arizona is at home against Colorado at 9:40 PM ET as a -118 money line favorites with a total of 8.5. Oakland hosts Baltimore as a -129 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Angels travel to Seattle as a -146 money line road favorite with a total of 8. San Diego plays at home against San Francisco as a -195 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.Matchweek 33 of the English Premier League begins at 3 PM ET with Leicester City visiting Southampton on Peacock. The Foxes are a -0.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5.

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2021 Major League Baseball: One Month In

by Power Sports

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

We’re officially one month into the 2021 Major League Baseball season and the Mariners (+7.0 units), A’s (+7.0), Royals (+6.9), Giants (+6.5) and Pirates (+6.5) have been the five most profitable teams to bet on thus far. There are definitely some surprises on that list and I’d expect four of the five (exception being the Giants) to fall pretty quickly.The A’s won 13 in a row at one point, but still have a negative run differential. Ditto for the Mariners. Kansas City has benefited from a 6-1 record in one-run games. The Pirates are expected to be one of the worst teams in either league this season.Minnesota (-12.5 units) and the Yankees (-10.4) are pacing the “bad bets” thus far. Only the Mets (-7.2), who have played far fewer games than anyone else, are within “sniffing” distance of the bottom of the net unit rankings. Colorado (-5.4), Detroit (-5.2), Atlanta (-5.1), Houston (-5.1) and the Cubs (-5.0) round out the rest of the worst.Atlanta and especially Houston should get better as the season wears on. The Astros have the American League’s second best run differential at +24, but are currently just a game above .500. I think a big story thus far is that none of the preseason favorites are leading the respective divisions. Even the Dodgers are one-half game out of first place (trailing the surprising Giants). The NL West looks stacked thus far with the three best run differentials in the Senior Circuit. The Dodgers are +36, the Giants +24 and the Padres (who were supposed to be LA’s main competition) +14.  Could all three end up making the playoffs?The NL East and Central both appear to be wide open. Milwaukee has gotten tremendous pitching the first month of the season. Only the three teams out West are allowing a fewer number of runs per game. That seems more reliable than Cincinnati, who is 1st in runs per game but 29th in runs allowed. The only team in the East with a positive run differential at this point is Miami and they were pegged for last place before the season began. No team in that division is currently .500. We now move to the American League where no team has established itself as a clear favorite. In the Central, I like the White Sox, who have a +31 run differential. As stated above, Kansas City could start to fade as they’ve been fortunate in one-run games. Can’t say the same for Cleveland, who is the only team in MLB yet to win a one-run affair (0-4). Look for Houston to take charge in the West.The East is the most intriguing division in the AL. With the Red Sox starting fast, everyone except Baltimore should be a contender. Boston is top five (in all of baseball) in runs scored, but the Blue Jays and Yankees have been very good at run suppression. Not sure where this leaves Tampa Bay.Three teams from the East (Toronto, Yankees, Baltimore) are in the top six for most Unders in the first month. Ahead of them are: Kansas City (15-7-1), the Mets (12-5-2) and Detroit (19-7 Under). The Mets and Tigers are the two lowest scoring teams in baseball right now. As of this writing, the Tigers have gone Under in 13 straight.Cincinnati is 17-6-1 to the Over this year, easily #1 in that department. That shouldn’t be a surprise given what I mentioned above. Interestingly, the next two highest scoring teams (White Sox, Arizona) are not among the league leaders in Overs. In fact, only two teams besides the Reds have gone Over at least three more times than they’ve gone Under. Those would be Atlanta and the Angels, the latter of whom is giving up the most runs per game at 5.9.  I hope this provides some insight and I will be sure to have multiple updates as we get into the summer months. 

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Ness Notes: MLB 2021: A 4-Week Review

by Larry Ness

Thursday, Apr 29, 2021

The 2020 season was limited to just 60 games and MLB decided to to expand its playoff field to eight teams from each league. The top two teams from each division, plus the teams from each league with the next two best records qualified for the postseason. The Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers (both with a record of 29-31) became the first teams to make the postseason with a record below .500 since the Royals did so in the strike season of 1981. MLB split that season into First Half and Second Half winners qualifying for the playoffs (note: Both the AL and NL had just two divisions back then, East and West). The Royals went 50-53 overall, but won the AL West in the Second Half with a 30-23 record. The Royals lost 3-0 to Oakland, winners of the AL West.Milwaukee followed KC's path from 1981 last season, losing its best-of-three wild card series 2-0 to the Dodgers. The Astros became the first, and currently only, team with a record below .500 to win a playoff series. They defeated the Minnesota Twins in the Wild Card Series (2-0) and the Oakland A's in the ALDS (3-1), before losing the ALCS to the Tampa Bay Rays. In that series, Houston lost the first three games but forced a Game 7 before losing. Tampa Bay, in just the second World Series in franchise history, lost 4-2 to the LA Dodgers, who won their first title since 1988.The Dodgers opened the current season having won EIGHT straight NL West titles and their eight consecutive postseason appearances is double that of the next closest team. The Astros and Yankees are tied for the second-longest active playoff streak, with four in a row. However, let me add that neither team would have qualified for last year's postseason without the expanded format, making LA's eight postseason appearances in a row look even more impressive. THREE double-digit playoff droughts ended in 2020, as the Marlins ended a 16-year drought, the Padres a 13-year drought and the White Sox an 11-year drought. Entering the current season, the Mariners haven't been to the postseason since the team went 116-46 back in 2001. Seattle tied the major league record for wins set by the 1906 Chicago Cubs and set the record for wins by an American League team in 2001. However, Seattle opened the 2021 season on a 19-year playoff drought. The second-worst current drought belongs to the Phillies (nine in a row), with the Angels and Tigers next with six straight non-playoff seasons. The playoff field returns to just five teams in each league this season and Wednesday April 28 capped the first four weeks of the 2021 season, a perfect time to take a quick peek at where things stand.If the season ended last night (of course it's just four weeks old but play along), the only division winner from 2020 to stand alone atop that same division in 2021 would be the 15-10 Oakland A's of the NL West. The Dodgers, the defending World Series champs, have dominated the NL West (see above) and while their 16-9 record is tied for MLB's best with two other teams, one of those teams is the SF Giants, leaving LA tied for the NL West lead with their most-hated rivals. Yes, the same Giants who finished 14 games back of the Dodgers in last year's abbreviated 60-game schedule. What's more, SF finished 29 games back of LA in 2019, 18 1/2-games back in 2018 and a whopping 40 games back in 2017. Hard to make this stuff up. The other team at 16-9? How about the first-place Boston Red Sox (AL East). Now of course Boston owns four World Series titles since 2004 but the 2020 edition had a 24-36 record, finishing last in the Al East. The other three division leaders at the four-week mark are the 15-8 KC Royals of the AL Central and 14-10 Milwaukee Brewers of the NL Central, plus the NL East has a tie atop its division between the Braves at Phillies (12-12). The Royals haven't been to the playoff since appearing in back-to-back World Series in 2014 (lost) and 2015 (won). As for the Brewers of the NL Central, they've been to three straight postseasons. Over in the NL East, the Braves are the three-time defending champs, while the Phillies last made the postseason back in 2011. A few items about the above-mentioned teams are noteworthy. The Red Sox opened 0-3 but then ran off NINE straight wins, before going 7-6 their last 13. The Oakland A's opened the season 0-6 and after splitting their next two, ripped off 13 consecutive wins. However, they enter Thursday losers of three of their last four. The Phillies opened 4-0 and the Braves opened 0-4 but are both now 12-12, sitting atop a division without a winning team (Can you say NFC East?). The Dodgers opened 13-2 but are just 3-7 their last 10, while the "out of nowhere" Giants have reached 16-9 by owning MLB's best home record of 10-3. With that out of the way, let's talk about moneyline winners and losers (does anything else really matter?), How have those 16-9 teams fared against 'the great equalizer?' The Red Sox are not only tied for MLB's best record but they also lead the moneyline standing at plus-$787 (at $100/game). That's an impressive 'daily double.' The Giants rank third-best at plus-$587 but Dodgers followers would be down $29 Y-T-D if betting $100/game on the defending champs. No one said betting/handicapping MLB is easy. The Dodgers own MLB's best run-differential at plus-37, while only THREE other teams in MLB are better than plus-20. The 13-11 Astros are plus-25 runs but-$169 vs the moneyline, followed by the Giants (plus-24 runs) and the Red Sox (plus-22 runs).Taking a look at 2021's underachievers we have three teams playing less than .400 baseball. The Tigers have lost 10 of 12 and own MLB's worst record at 8-16 (.333), while the Twins have lost 13 of 16 to settle at 8-15 (.348). The Rockies own the NL's worst record at 9-15 (.375) due primarily to owning the worst road record (1-8) in MLB. MLB's three-worst moneyline records belong to the Twins (-$889), the 11-13 Yankees (-$589) and 10-14 Cubs (-$511). The Tigers own MLB's worst run differential at minus-35 runs but the outlook looks better for the Twins (minus-6 runs) and the Rockies (minus-8 runs).This is just a quick 'snapshot,' as the regular season is not scheduled to end unto Oct 3rd. I'll take another 'peek' (update) on Memorial Day.Good luck...Larry

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2021 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part 2: The Value Plays

by Al McMordie

Thursday, Apr 29, 2021

Over the four days leading up the Kentucky Derby, we'll be previewing this first leg of the Triple Crown.  Yesterday, we took a look at the top contenders.  Later this week, we'll focus on the over-bet pretenders (Friday) and the bombs to use in exotic wagers (Saturday).  Today, we discuss the value plays.In many ways the 2021 Kentucky Derby could be subtitled "back to normal".  After going way off course in 2020, the Derby will look like the Derby again this coming weekend.  It will be run on the first Saturday in May; it will likely top the headlines for the weekend; and there will be real fans in the stands.  But one thing will yet again be different.  For the first time in a long time, Bob Baffert will not have a strong favorite in the race (and he will only have one horse entered as well).  In fact, the California-based trainer's Medina Spirit will likely be no better than the fourth-favorite when the gates open at about 6:55 pm ET this Saturday.    So does this mean that the 2021 version is a wide open Derby that could yield a winner such as Mine that Bird or Giacomo?  Not likely, but you could still get a decent price (as was the case last year when Baffert's Authentic won at odds of 8-1).  So who are the most likely winners?  Where will the value lie?  Who will be over-bet?  And what longshots are the ones to include in your exotics (exactas, trifectas, etc).  We now present Part 2 of our preview of the 2021 Run for the Roses: Value Plays:    Highly Motivated (Chad Brown, Javier Castellano)    Any time you have a Chad Brown runner in a big race, he’s almost certainly worth a long look.  The problem is that nine times out of ten, you’re probably going to get 2-1 at best as Brown has become the pre-eminent trainer for many of the big stables in the east.  Here’s your chance to get at least 10-1 on a Brown entrant with very few, if any, knocks against.  This well-bred son of leading sire Into Mischief only lost to Essential Quality by a neck in the Toyota Blue Grass last time out and he was well clear of the rest of the field.  A slight improvement since that last race could put Brown in the Derby Winners Circle for the first time.     Mandaloun (Brad Cox, Florent Geroux)    This year’s “forgotten horse” will likely be this son of Into Mischief owned by the prestigious Juddmonte Farms.  Mandaloun has gone off as the odds-on favorite in virtually all five of his races.  And after winning the Risen Star impressively, it seemed the Louisiana Derby was his to lose.  And lose he did, finishing an uninspired 6th.  Trainer Cox has called that one a real head-scratcher and since then Mandaloun is reportedly doing great and his workouts seem to back that up.  Last year’s Derby winner Authentic was also by Into Mischief, and with a Dam by Empire Maker, this boy is bred to run all day so the 1 ¼ mile distance should not be a problem.  After going off no higher than 2-1 in any of his previous races, you’ll likely be looking at 15-1 on Saturday.   King Fury (Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernandez)    Another Curlin runner, Kenny McPeek’s colt doesn’t have to worry about what to do from the #1 post like Known Agenda does.  He drew post #16 which would seem to fit his running style perfectly.  Coming off a 4 ½ month break, King Fury ran by far his best race in winning the Lexington at Keeneland with regular rider Brian Hernandez aboard.  Hernandez may not be one of the household names when it comes to jockeys, but he’s proven time and time again that he can hold his own in the big races.  He won the Lexington at 18-1 and you’re likely to get at least that on Derby Day making King Fury a very usable horse for a saver win bet.Our 2021 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part 3:  The Over-bet Pretenders will be published tomorrow, on Friday.

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UEFA Europa League Semifinals Preview and Odds - 04/29/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Apr 29, 2021

UEFA Europa League Thursday: Semifinals PreviewThe first leg of the semifinals of the UEFA Europa League begins on Thursday, with both matches starting at 3 PM ET.Manchester United hosts Roma at Old Trafford. The Red Devils reached the semifinals with their 2-0 win at home against Granada on April 15th. That victory secured their 4-0 aggregate score triumph after their 2-0 road win against the Nazaries on April 8th. Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side has won 12 of their last 17 matches across all competitions. They last played on Sunday in a 0-0 draw at Leeds United in a result that ended their five-game winning streak. Man United is in second place in the English Premier League, 10 points behind Manchester City.Roma advanced from the quarterfinals with a 3-2 aggregate score triumph against Ajax. The Yellow and Reds won the first leg on the road, 2-1, on April 8th before settling for a 1-1 draw at home against the Dutch giants on April 15th. Manager Paulo Fonseca’s team is winless in their last four matches after a 3-2 loss at Cagliari on Sunday. Roma is in seventh place in Serie A, trailing Lazio by five points, who still have a game in hand. BetOnline lists Man United as a -1 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.75.Arsenal travels to Villarreal in the second semifinals match. The Gunners advanced from the quarterfinals with a 4-0 victory against Slavia Praha on April 15th. Those teams settled for a 1-1 draw in the first left at Emirates Stadium on April 8th. Manager Mikel Arteta’s side is winless in their last two matches in the English Premier League after a 1-0 loss at home to Everton on April 23rd. Arsenal is in tenth place in the English top flight. They are one point behind Leeds United for ninth place, while a distant six points behind Everton and seven points behind Tottenham for the eighth and seventh place spots. Injuries have played a significant role for the Gunners in the second half of their season. Arteta is hopeful that Alexandre Lacazette, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Kiernan Tierney, and Martin Odegaard will be available. Winning the Europa League title is the best opportunity the franchise has to qualify for the European competition next season. Villarreal reached the semifinals after their 2-1 victory against Dinamo Zagreb on April 15th. The Yellow Submarine won the aggregate score by a 3-1 margin after their road victory in the first leg on April 8th. Manager Unai Emery’s team has lost two in a row in La Liga after their 2-1 loss at home to Barcelona. Villarreal is in seventh place in the Spanish top flight. They trail Real Betis by one point for sixth place, and they lag by four points against Real Sociedad for fifth place in the table. Emery will be a familiar face for many of the Gunners as he was the team’s previous manager before being replaced by Emery in November of 2019.BetOnline lists this match as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 2.5. Both games are available on Paramount+.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and UEFA Europa League Previews and Odds - 04/29/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Apr 29, 2021

The Thursday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the UEFA Europa League. The first round of the NFL draft starts at 8 PM ET on ABC, ESPN, and the NFL Network.The NBA has six games on the docket. The card begins with two games at 7 PM ET. Brooklyn visits Indiana as a 9-point road favorite at DraftKings. Dallas plays at Detroit. Golden State travels to Minnesota at 8 PM ET as a 5.5-point road favorite with the total set at 234.5 (all odds at BetOnline unless indicated otherwise). Milwaukee plays at Houston as a 12.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 232.5. Denver hosts Toronto as a 3-point favorite with the total at 223.5. New Orleans visits Oklahoma City as an 8.5-point road favorite with a total of 229.5.Ten games are on the NHL schedule. Six games begin the slate at 7 PM ET. The New York Rangers are at home against the New Islanders as a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Philadelphia travels to New Jersey as a -127 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Carolina is at home against Detroit as a -370 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Boston plays at home against Buffalo as a -365 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Tampa Bay hosts Dallas as a -286 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Toronto is at home against Vancouver at 7:30 PM ET as a -286 money line favorite at DraftKings with a total of 6. Minnesota hosts St. Louis as a -134 money line favorite at DraftKings with an over/under of 5.5.A doubleheader on the NBC Sports Network begins at 8 PM ET with Florida traveling to Chicago. The Panthers are a -158 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Edmonton plays at home against Calgary at 9 PM ET as a -141 money line favorite at DraftKings with an over/under of 6. The NBC Sports Network will join this game in progress after the ending of Florida/Chicago.Ten games are on the MLB docket. The New York Yankees visit Baltimore at 1:05 PM ET as a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 9. Tampa Bay is at home against Oakland at 1:10 PM ET as a -105 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Philadelphia travels to St. Louis at 1:15 PM ET as a -117 money line road favorite with a total of 7. Seattle plays at Houston at 2:10 PM ET. The Chicago White Sox host Detroit in the opening game of a seven-inning doubleheader at 5:10 PM ET. Atlanta is at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:20 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at Milwaukee at 7:40 PM ET as a -152 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Boston visits Texas as a -122 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Detroit plays at Chicago against the White Sox in the second game of their doubleheader at 8:40 PM ET. Arizona is at home against Colorado at 9:40 PM ET as a -151 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.The semifinals of the Europa League begin at 3 PM with both first-leg matches. Arsenal plays at Villarreal in a pick ‘em matchup with a total of 2.5. Manchester United is at home against Roma as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.75. Both matches are on Paramount+.

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UEFA Champions League Manchester City vs. Paris Saint-Germain Preview, Odds and Prediction - 04/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Apr 28, 2021

UEFA Champions League Semifinals Preview: Man City at PSG.The first leg of the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League continues on Wednesday, with Paris Saint-Germain hosting Manchester City at their Parc des Princes on the CBS Sports Network at 3 PM ET.PSG reached the semifinals of the European championship by defeating Bayern Munich with the away goals tiebreaker. Les Parisiens won the opening match at Allianz Stadium, 3-2, on April 7th. Kylian Mbappe scored twice, and Marquinhos added a third goal in the triumph. Despite losing at home to the Bavarians in the second leg on April 13th, their three goals on the road broke the 3-3 aggregate score stalemate. Manager Mauricio Pochettino’s team may have endured the most difficult road to reach the final four. PSG survived a challenge group stage that included RB Leipzig and Manchester United. Les Parisiens then faced Barcelona in the first knockout stage round. They defeated Lionel Messi and company by a 5-2 aggregate score after striking a dominant 4-1 blow on the road in the first leg against Barca. PSG comes off a 3-1 victory at home to Metz on Saturday in Ligue 1 play. Mbappe scored twice before exiting the match with a knee injury. Mauro Icardi added the final goal. Les Parisiens have won four of their last five games across all competitions, and they have scored at least three goals in seven of nine matches. They are in second place in the French top flight, one point behind Lille. Manchester City has won three of their last four matches after capturing the Carabou Cup title in a 1-0 victory against Tottenham at Wembley Stadium on Sunday. Aymeric LaPorte scored the lone goal in the 82nd minute to give manager Pep Guardiola his fourth straight League Cup. The Citizens advanced to the semifinals of the Championship League for the first time under Guardiola’s stewardship with their 4-2 aggregate score victory against Borussia Dortmund. Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden scored in the opening leg 2-1 win at the Etihad Stadium on April 6th. Riyad Mahrez and Foden scored in the second leg on the road on April 14th. Man City reached the quarterfinals after they dispatched another Bundesliga side, Borussia Monchengladbach, by a 4-0 aggregate score in the first knockout stage. The Citizens have won nine of their ten Champions League matches this season with a 0-0 draw against FC Porto, the lone blemish on their resume. Guardiola is on track to guide to their third English Premier League title in the last four seasons. Man City is in first place by 10 points over Manchester United. Neither of these storied franchises has lifted the UEFA Champions League trophy. PSG lost to Bayern Munich in the finals last August. Les Parisiens would be just the ninth team in the history of the event to reach the finals if they can get past Man City. Mbappe is a doubt with his weekend knee injury, but he expects to play. BetOnline lists Man City as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with the total set at 2.75.Computer prediction:  Manchester City 2 Paris Saint-Germain 1

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2021 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part 1: The Contenders

by Al McMordie

Wednesday, Apr 28, 2021

Over the next four days, we'll be previewing the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby.  Today, we will take a look at the top contenders.  Later this week, we'll focus on the value plays (Thursday), over-bet pretenders (Friday) and the bombs to use in exotic wagers (Saturday).In many ways the 2021 Kentucky Derby could be subtitled "back to normal".  After going way off course in 2020, the Derby will look like the Derby again this coming weekend.  It will be run on the first Saturday in May; it will likely top the headlines for the weekend; and there will be real fans in the stands.  But one thing will yet again be different.  For the first time in a long time, Bob Baffert will not have a strong favorite in the race (and he will only have one horse entered as well).  In fact, the California-based trainer's Medina Spirit will likely be no better than the fourth-favorite when the gates open at about 6:55 pm ET this Saturday.    So does this mean that the 2021 version is a wide open Derby that could yield a winner such as Mine that Bird or Giacomo?  Not likely, but you could still get a decent price (as was the case last year when Baffert's Authentic won at odds of 8-1).  So who are the most likely winners?  Where will the value lie?  Who will be over-bet?  And what longshots are the ones to include in your exotics (exactas, trifectas, etc).  We now present Part 1 of our preview of the 2021 Run for the Roses:    Top Contenders:    Essential Quality (trainer Brad Cox, jockey Luis Saez)    You would have to look long and hard to find anything wrong that the undefeated son of Tapit has done in getting this far.  And even then you would come up empty.  Simply put, Essential Quality has been like Nolan Ryan in any of his seven no-hitters.  So why bet against him?  Well for starters, we had an almost identical case last year when Tiz The Law not only ran perfect in the spring, but also in the summer leading up to the belated October Derby.  And he could do no better than second.  So go ahead and put your eggs in this basket and nobody will blame you.  Just not all of your eggs.    Rock Your World (John Sadler, Joel Rosario)      Baffert may not have one of the top horses, but that doesn't mean that California isn't well-represented.  This son of Candy Ride won the Santa Anita Derby in impressive fashion and if there isn't much pace in the Derby (and there doesn't appear to be), then Rock Your World may just play a game of 'catch me if you can.'  Rosario picks up the mount from California turf specialist Umberto Rispoli (Rispoli has since picked up the mount on Brooklyn Strong, who just drew into the race on Monday) and that certainly makes Sadler's 3YO an even more attractive choice.  From a speed figure perspective, Rock Your World's Santa Anita Derby is right there with Essential Quality's best races, but he figures to go off at significantly longer odds (6-1 vs. 3-1).    Known Agenda (Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz)    Like Baffert, it's rare for Pletcher not to have at least one horse who is in the top three or four favorites in the Derby.  He doesn't win as often as Baffert, but his top horses have to be taken seriously.  And this son of Classic winner Curlin is a serious contender based on his last two efforts.  There isn't a better jockey in the country right now than Ortiz, who comes to Churchill Downs off successful meets at Keeneland and Aqueduct.  And before those two, he set the single-season Championship Meet win record at Gulfstream Park over the Winter.  Part of that Meet record for Ortiz was a dominant win aboard Known Agenda in the March 27 Florida Derby.  Can Known Agenda win outside of Florida?  And can he win from the dreaded #1 post position?  Those questions will be answered on Saturday.  And you're likely to get a nice price (maybe 10-1) to find out.Our 2021 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part 2:  The Value Plays will be published tomorrow, on Thursday.

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