Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL, NHL, NBA, NFL and NCAA Basketball Preview

Saturday, Jan 16, 2021

The Saturday card features a busy day of sports headlined by the opening two NFL divisional playoff games. A full slate of college basketball complements action in the NBA, NHL, and the English Premier League.The NFL playoffs kick off today at 4:35 PM ET with Green Bay hosting the LA Rams. The Packers come off a bye week after defeating Chicago to end the regular season by a 35-16 score as a 4.5-point favorite. The Rams upset Seattle on the road last week, 30-20, as a 3-point underdog. Green Bay is a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 45.5 (all odds from BetOnline). Fox has the broadcast. The NFL nightcap takes place at 8:15 PM ET, with Baltimore traveling to Buffalo. The Ravens have won six games in a row after they defeated Tennessee on the road last week by a 20-13 score as a 3.5-point favorite. The Bills won seven in a row with their 27-24 victory against Indianapolis as a 7-point favorite last Saturday. Buffalo is a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 49.5. The game is on NBC.Six games are on tap in the NBA. San Antonio hosts Houston at 5:05 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite, with the total at 216.5 to tip off the card. Portland plays at home against Atlanta as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 235 to close out the schedule. None of the games are on national television.The first Saturday of the NHL season has ten games. The puck drops at 1 PM ET, with Boston playing at New Jersey as a -185 money line favorite with the total at 5.5. Two games conclude the card at 10 PM ET. Carolina plays at home against Vancouver as a -138 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Anaheim visits Vegas with the Golden Knights priced as a -220 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The college basketball card tips off at noon PM ET with Florida State hosting North Carolina on ESPN as a 4-point favorite with a total of 145.5. Marquette visits St. John’s at noon on FS1 as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 154. Ole Miss plays at home against Georgia at noon on ESPN2 as an 8-point favorite with a total of 145.5.San Diego State visits Utah State at 1:30 PM ET on the CBS with the Aggies a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 145.5.At 2 PM ET, Michigan visits Minnesota on ESPN2 as a 6-point road favorite with the total set at 148. Creighton goes on the road to play at Butler on FS1 as an 8-point road favorite with a total of 140. Bucknell hosts Lehigh on the NBC Sports Network as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 144.5. Auburn plays at home against Kentucky on ESPN as a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 145.At 4 PM ET, Baylor visits Texas Tech on ESPN as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 138.5. DePaul plays at home against Valparaiso on FS1 as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141.5. Florida visits Mississippi State on ESPN2 in a pick ‘em contest with the total at 136. Furman is at home against East Tennessee State on ESPNU as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 141.5. The CBS Sports Network has UNLV hosting New Mexico at 5:30 PM ET as any 11-point favorite with the total at 141.5. At 6 PM ET, Clemson plays at home against Virginia on ESPN as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 116. Loyola-Illinois is at home against Northern Iowa on ESPN2 laying 10 points as the favorite with the total at 140.5. BYU visits San Francisco at 8 PM ET on ESPN as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 143.5. At 10 PM ET, Gonzaga plays at Saint Mary’s on ESPN as a 16-point road favorite with the total set at 146.5. Utah hosts California on ESPNU as a 12-point favorite with an over/under of 134.Matchweek 19 in the English Premier League opens with five matches. Wolverhampton hosts West Bromwich Albion at 7:30 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network. At 10 AM ET, Leeds United plays at home against Brighton and Hove Albion as a -0.25 goal line favorite with the total at 2.75. Chelsea visits Fulham at 12:30 PM ET on NBC as a -1 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5.

NFL Saturday Afternoon Football: Packers/Rams Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jan 16, 2021

The opening game of the divisional round of the NFL playoffs involves the top-rated scoring offense against the top-rated scoring defense. The Los Angeles Rams lead the NFL by allowing only 18.6 points-per-game. They clinched a playoff spot in the final week of the regular season with an 18-7 win at home against Arizona. They followed that victory last week by avenging their 20-9 loss at Seattle in Week 16 by upsetting the Seahawks by a 30-20 score as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. John Wolford started at quarterback but got knocked out of the game after completing three of his six passes for 29 yards. Jared Goff came on in relief with his injured hand to complete 9 of 19 passes for 155 yards with a touchdown pass to lead the Rams to the victory. Rookie running back Cam Akers ran the ball 28 times for 131 yards with a touchdown. Wolford is out for this game with the neck injury he suffered last week. Goff has been named the starting quarterback for this game. Los Angeles linebacker Terrell Lewis is also out with an ankle injury. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp is questionable with a knee, and David Edwards is questionable with an ankle. The Rams have five players out the season or on Injured Reserve, including running back Darrell Henderson.Green Bay comes off a bye week after defeating Chicago on the road last week by a 35-16 score as a 4.5-point favorite. That was the sixth straight victory for the Packers. Green Bay leads the NFL by averaging 31.8 points-per-game. Aaron Rodgers completed 19 of 24 passes for 240 yards with four touchdowns in the victory against the Bears to clinch the top seed in the NFC playoffs. Rodgers is completing 70.7% of his passes this season for 4299 yards with 48 touchdown passes and only five interceptions. Wide receiver Davante Adams is having a career year with 115 receptions from his 149 targeted passes for 1374 yards with 18 touchdowns.The Packers host this game at Lambeau Field, where they are 7-1 this season. They are scoring 31.6 points-per-game at home while averaging 406.8 yards-per-game. Green Bay allows 19.5 points-per-game along with 308.9 yards-per-game at home. Los Angeles has won five of their nine games on the road while scoring 26.2 points-per-game and averaging 409.0 yards-per-game. The Rams are allowing 23.1 points-per-game and 270.4 yards-per-game on the road.Green Bay will be challenged by the Rams' ground game that averages 30.4 rushing attempts-per-game and 128 rushing yards-per-game. Those numbers rank sixth and ninth in the NFL. The Packers allowed opposing rushers to average 4.5 yards-per-carry along with 113 rushing yards-per-game. The Packers’ defensive end Kingsley Keke is doubtful as he continues through the concussion protocol. Green Bay has nine players either out the season or on their Injured Reserve, with left tackle David Bakhtiari being the most notable loss. BetAnySports lists Green Bay as a 6.5-point favorite, with the total set at 45.5.

Ness Notes: Friday, Jan 15

by Larry Ness

Friday, Jan 15, 2021

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."CBB: There were no top-25 matchups in Thursday play and the only ranked team to play on Thursday was No. 1 Gonzaga, which hosted Pepperdine. The Waves were playing their first game after a 23-day layoff due to COVID-19 concerns but Pepperdine only trailed by a score of 43-39 at halftime. However, Gonzaga pulled away for a 95-70 win but a non-cover (Bulldogs closed as a 27 point favorite). The Bulldogs are 95-0 against West Coast Conference teams not named Saint Mary's or BYU since 2014 (note: BYU won 62-52 at St Mary's last night). Gonzaga is 13-0 SU but just 6-6-1 ATS on the season. However, the Zags have won 17 straight games and 46 straight at home (longest active streak).Joining Gonzaga as unbeaten teams which have played double digits in games are 13-0 Drake, 12-0 Winthrop, 11-0 Baylor (No. 2) and 11-0 Michigan (No. 7). Drake matches Gonzaga's win total but hasn't played since Jan 4 and its next game isn't scheduled until Jan 26 because of COVID issues. Winthrop moved to 12-0 by beating Longwood at home last night and will play Longwood at home again tonight. A second straight win over the 3-12 Lancers, would give the Eagles 18 straight wins, ONE more than Gonzaga (Winthrop is favored by 16 1/2-points). Talk of unbeatens naturally leads to a discussion of winless teams. Three schools remain winless after at least 10 games. South Carolina St is 0-13 (has lost 19 in a row), Idaho is 0-10 (11 straight losses) and Mississippi Valley St is 0-10. Chicago St is 0-9 but deserves mention because it ended last season on a 19-game losing streak, giving the Cougars 28 consecutive losses. However, Chicago St won't lose any more games this season, as the school suspended the remainder of its 2020-21 men's basketball season due to COVID-19 back on Dec 23.There are no top-25 matchups on Friday, but No. 9 Wisconsin will play at Rutgers. When the Badgers visited seventh-ranked Michigan on Tuesday, it looked like a great Big Ten contest but the Wolverines used a 36-3 run bridging the halves to rout the Badgers 77-54! 10-3 Wisconsin plays at Rutgers, which opened 6-0 and was ranked 11th in the AP, but has now lost THREE straight (and four of five), to fall to 7-4. Both teams badly need a win and I will note that the Scarlet Knights have gone 24-4 SU at "The RAC" (Rutgers Athletic Center) since the start of last season. Wisconsin is favored by three points. Higher ranked teams are 25-12 (.676) SU but just 20-17 (54.1%) ATS in meetings between ranked opponents Y-T-D. There are FOUR such meetings over the weekend, all on Saturday. No. 2 Baylor is at No. 15 Texas Tech, No. 7 Michigan is at No. 23 Minnesota, No. 12 Clemson hosts No. 18 Virginia and No. 14 Illinois is home to No. 21 Ohio State. I'll check back in with college hoops in Monday's Notes.NBA: Thursday's TNT doubleheader saw the short-handed Houston Rockets win 109-105 at the San Antonio Spurs. NONE of the players the Rockets received in the trade -- Victor Oladipo (from the Indiana Pacers), Dante Exum (from the Cleveland Cavaliers), and Rodions Kurucs (from the Brooklyn Nets) -- was in uniform on Thursday, forcing Houston to field a makeshift lineup that more than held its own. San Antonio led 99-90 with 4:39 to play but the Rockets outscored the Spurs 19-6 the rest of the way. Christian Wood (23.1 PPG and 10.1 RPG on the season) had 27 points and grabbed 15 rebounds. In the nightcap, Denver center Nikola Jokic had 23 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists, Jamal Murray had 17 points and nine rebounds, as the host Nuggets beat the Golden State Warriors 114-104. The Nuggets were missing two starters, Michael Porter Jr. (COVID-19) and Gary Harris (personal reasons). Jokic is averaging 24.2-11.2-10.4 through 12 games. Can he pull a Russell Westbrook? The Raptors were able to win 111-108 over the Hornets but were not able to cover. Toronto, just two years removed from an NBA title, owns the NBA's worst SU and ATS record so far in the current season (3-8 SU & ATS).ESPN is back in the doubleheader business on Friday, as the 6-4 Mavericks take a four-game winning streak into Milwaukee to face the 8-4 Bucks (7:35 ET), followed by the 4-6 Pelicans taking on the 10-3 LA Lakers at Staples Center (10:05 ET). The Bucks have won SIX of seven to reach 8-4 but are just 6-6 ATS. However, the team's plus-11.4 point differential is an NBA-best. Milwaukee is favored by 6 1/2-points. The defending champion Lakers own the NBA's best record but like the Bucks, are a modest 7-6 ATS. However, also like Milwaukee, LA owns the second-best point differential at plus-10.5. The Pelicans expect to play without Eric Bledsoe (eye), Zion Williamson (health and safety protocols) and Lonzo Ball (knee). LA is favored by 10 points. The Chicago Bulls may be just 4-7 but they own the NBA's best ATS record at 8-3. The Bulls visit OKC to play the 5-6 Thunder, who are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS at home! The game is a pick'em.I spent too much time on CBB and the NBA, so I'll offer an NFL-only Saturday edition of Ness Notes.Good luck...Larry

NFL Divisional Round Saturday Player Props

by Sean Murphy

Friday, Jan 15, 2021

We went 1-2 with our NFL Wild Card props in this piece last week so we'll be looking to get back on the winning side of the ledger this week, with two NFL Divisional Round matchups in the offing on Saturday. While player prop numbers are generally moving targets, the following two plays are widely available (lines taken from BetOnline). Rams vs. PackersPackers RB Aaron Jones over 69.5 rushing yards.Aaron Jones should be front and center in the Packers offensive gameplan on Saturday afternoon. Game script clearly plays into Jones favor with Green Bay favored by nearly a touchdown at the time of writing. Note that the Packers showed a great deal of confidence in Jones in last year's playoff run, increasing his workload after he took a backseat to Jamaal Williams at times during the regular season. Off a healthy regular season, Jones is well-positioned to take the reins and ultimately put this game away should Green Bay build a lead in this game. While the Rams do offer a tough test with a stout run defense, their biggest concern should be on pressuring QB Aaron Rodgers and clamping down on WR Davante Adams. They'll likely be content to give up chunk plays to Jones on the ground if it means limiting the Pack to 3's rather than 7's at the end of drives. I have Jones getting north of 80 yards running the football in this game. Ravens vs. BillsRavens TE Mark Andrews over 55.5 receiving yardsI absolutely love the way this play sets up after Andrews took a backseat to WR Hollywood Brown in last week's win over the Titans. Andrews caught just four passes for 41 yards in that contest but draws a mouth-watering matchup against the Bills here. Note that only one team allowed more receiving yards to tight ends than Buffalo over the course of the regular season. Even Colts veteran TE Jack Doyle was able to find plenty of open field last week as Indy tight ends abused the Bills defense. With the Ravens likely to be playing from behind for some of this game, we should see QB Lamar Jackson rely heavily on Andrews to move the sticks. While I also like Andrews to score a touchdown in this game, I'll back him to get over the very reasonable receiving yards total, banking on a 70+ yard performance. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the games!

NHL Early Look

by Ben Burns

Friday, Jan 15, 2021

A couple of weeks ago, I told you to "do your homework" for the upcoming NHL campaign. The season started Wednesday, with a bang. Hopefully, everyone has enjoyed an exciting first two days.While it's never wise to over-react to a game or two, it's also important to "pay attention" to what's going on. So far, one thing which has stood out has been the scoring. Nine of the first 14 games have finished above the total. Those 14 games produced 91 combined goals, an average of exactly 6.5. What should we do with that information? Not much, yet. Keep watching though and if the high-scoring trend continues, there may be some opportunities. It's worth mentioning that all 14 of those O/U lines were 5.5, 6 or 6.5. Friday's card is also full of 6's and 6.5's. We have yet to see any sevens. While the oddsmakers can sometimes be a little slow to adjust to scoring trends, when they finally do so, sometimes they can go too far. As someone who typically plays more 'unders' than 'overs,' I'm hopeful that will be the case. Another few days of high-scoring games and the sevens will be quick to start popping up. Games that would have been 5.5 will move to six etc. If and when that time comes, I'll likely be looking to pick my spots with some 'unders.' This year's schedule will see a lot of teams playing each other in "back-to-back" situations. You may have already noticed. The Canucks and Oilers already faced each other twice. Vancouver won the first game and revenge-minded Edmonton came back to win the second. Tonight's card features four games where the teams will be playing each other for a second time: the Flyers/Penguins, Hawks/Lightning, Avs/Blues and the Capitals/Sabres. I'll be paying particularly close attention to these "revenge situations," while also keeping a close eye on league-wide scoring. I'll report back with my findings soon. Until then, good luck with the games!

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jan 15, 2021

The Friday card features action in the NBA, college basketball, and the NHL.Eight games are in the NBA. Two contests got postponed because of COVID issues: Detroit/Washington and Golden State/Phoenix.An ESPN doubleheader tips off at 7:35 PM ET with Milwaukee hosting Dallas. The Bucks have won six of their last seven games to raise their record to 8-4. They come off a 110-101 victory at Detroit as a 10-point favorite on Wednesday. The Mavericks have won four games in a row to improve to a 6-4 record. The last played on Wednesday when they defeated Charlotte, 104-93, as a 4-point favorite. Milwaukee is a 6-point favorite with the total set at 227 (all odds from BetOnline). The nightcap on ESPN at 10:05 PM ET has the Los Angeles Lakers playing at home against New Orleans. Los Angeles is 10-3 this season with eight wins in their last nine games after they defeated Oklahoma City on the road by a 128-00 score on Wednesday as an 11-point favorite. The Pelicans’ record has dropped to 4-6 after losing their fourth straight game on Wednesday, in a 111-106 loss in Los Angeles against the Clippers as an 11.5-point underdog. The NHL has five games on the schedule. Four of the games start at 7:05 PM ET. The finale has St. Louis visiting Colorado at 9:05 PM ET with the Avalanche priced as a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.The college basketball card tips off at 1 PM ET, with Hofstra visiting Delaware as a 3.5-point road favorite with the total at 137.5. Western Kentucky hosts Marshall on the CBS Sports Network at 5 PM ET. The Hilltoppers have lost two of their last three games to fall to 9-4 on the season after getting upset on Saturday, 63-53, as a 5.5-point favorite at Louisiana Tech. Marshall is 7-2 after winning three of their last four games with their win at Louisiana Tech as a 2-point favorite on January 2nd. Western Kentucky is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 150.UAB travels to Charlotte at 5 PM ET on ESPNU. The Blazers have won their last two games to improve to a 9-1 record after defeating Southern Mississippi on Saturday as a 13-point favorite. Charlotte dropped to 5-5 with two losses in their last three games after their stunning 75-72 loss to Belmont Abbey in a contest off the betting board on Saturday. UAB is a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 128.St. Bonaventure plays at home against Duquesne at 7 PM ET on ESPN2. The Bonnies won their third in a row to improve to 5-1 after defeating Fordham on the road, 68-54, on Wednesday. The Dukes are 3-4 this season after losing on Wednesday at Dayton, 72-63, as a 6-point underdog. St. Bonaventure is an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 135.Bowling Green plays at Buffalo at 7 PM ET on the CBS Sports Network. The Falcons are 9-3 after their five-game winning streak end on Tuesday with an 88-64 loss to Ball State as an 8-point favorite. The Bulls won four of their last five to rise to 5-2 on Tuesday with an 85-69 win at Western Michigan as a 9.5-point favorite. Buffalo is a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 161.Nevada hosts Fresno State at 11 PM ET on FS1. The Wolf Pack fell to a 7-5 record on Saturday after losing their second game in a row in their 69-67 loss at San Diego State as a 10.5-point underdog. The Bulldogs have won three games in a row to improve to 5-3 after their 80-65 win against San Jose State on Sunday as a 14-point favorite. Nevada is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5.

NCAA Friday Night Basketball: Duquesne/St. Bonaventure Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jan 15, 2021

The Friday night college basketball game on ESPN2 features two experienced teams from the Atlantic 10 conference that began the year with postseason aspirations. Duquesne entered the season with high expectations in Keith Dambrot’s fourth season as the head coach of this program. The Dukes returned all five starters and seven of their top eight starters from the team last year that finished 21-9. Yet three starters have left the team in the last week. Lamar Norman, Jr. and Sincere Carry entered the transfer portal while Maceo Austin is out indefinitely for personal reasons. The loss of Carry seems the most significant, with the point guard choosing to transfer to Kent State. The point guard scored 12.2 points-per-game last year while adding 5.3 assists-per-game. Carry was not as productive this season as he was scoring 9.0 points-per-game and averaging 4.2 assists-per-game. Norman and Austin have also seen their numbers decline this season. Norman was scoring only 5.0 points-per-game after posting a 6.1 points-per-game average last year. Austin was contributing 4.8 points-per-game after scoring 7.0 points-per-game a year ago.Dambrot remains confident in his team after this attrition. Duquesne still has five players that were averaging at least 17 minutes-per-game before those moves. Forward Marcus Weathers leads the team with a 14.0 points-per-game scoring average while adding 6.4 rebounds-per-game. Weathers scored 14.3 points-per-game last year with 8.1 rebounds-per-game. The Dukes are 3-4 this season after losing at Dayton on Wednesday by a 72-63 score as a 6-point underdog. Duquesne’s highest-profile victory was a non-conference win against UNC-Greensboro on December 2nd. The Dukes are 2-3 in conference play with losses to George Washington and Davidson in addition to their most recent setback against the Flyers. They rank tenth in the Atlantic 10 in both adjusted offensive efficiency and adjusted defensive efficiency according to the metrics at kenpom. Duquesne leads the conference with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 46.3%.St. Bonaventure has won their last three games after they defeated Fordham on the road on Wednesday by a 68-54 score as a 13-point favorite. The Bonnies are 5-1 with a signature victory against Richmond. Their lone loss was against Rhode Island. Head coach Mark Schmidt has all five starters back from last season's 19-12 squad. Jalen Adaway was a part-time starter for multiple seasons at Miami (OH) who transferred to this group. Five players are scoring at least 10.8 points-per-game this year, with Jaren Holmes leading the way with a 16.3 points-per-game scoring average. Kyle Lofton is adding 13.3 points-per-game along with 5.8 assists-per-game. St. Bonaventure leads the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents make only 26.3% of their 3-pointers against them, which is the lowest mark in the Atlantic 10. The Bonnies are fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency in the conference while leading the A-10 in offensive rebounding rate. BookMaker lists St. Bonaventure as an 8-point favorite, with the total set at 134.

Ness Notes: Thursday, Jan 14

by Larry Ness

Thursday, Jan 14, 2021

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."CBB: No. 4 Texas was at home to No. 15 Texas Tech in the lone Wednesday game involving ranked opponents. Texas scored 48 points in the first half (10-point lead) against a team allowing just 58.0 PPG but while the Longhorns led almost the entire game, Tech's Mac McClung made a long jumper with THREE seconds left to give No. 15 Texas Tech a 79-77 win, ending the Longhorns' 4-0 start in the Big 12. That 4-0 start in Big 12 play was Texas' best since the 2010-11 season when it began league play with 11 straight wins. Higher ranked teams are now 25-12 (.676) SU but just 20-17 (54.1%) ATS in meetings between ranked opponents Y-T-D. Three ranked teams, No. 16 Louisville, No. 18 Virginia and No. 21 Ohio St, all won and covered vs unranked opponents.Thursday's play was supposed to include four ranked teams meeting unranked opponents (no top-25 matchups were scheduled) but THREE were postponed due to COVID. The list includes No. 5 Iowa, No. 11 Houston and No. 22 Oregon. Still on the schedule is No. 1 Gonzaga (12-0) hosting 4-5 Pepperdine. The top-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs are one of only THREE undefeated college basketball programs in the top-25 and they've steamrolled their first three WCC opponents, winning 85-62, 86-69 and 116-88. Saturday's 116-88 win at Portland saw Joel Ayayi log the first triple-double in program history (12-13-14) points. Pepperdine hasn't beaten the Zags since 2002 (a span of 39 games!) and hasn't won at Gonzaga since 1998. Gonzaga has won 45 straight at home (longest active streak) and is favored by 25 1/2-points. Pepperdine on the moneyline?NBA: The big news Wednesday was the Rockets sending James Harden to the Nets in a blockbuster four-team trade that also involves the Pacers and Cavaliers, completing the unhappy star's exit from Houston and setting up a potential superteam in Brooklyn. That's assuming Kyrie feels like playing. The details of the trade are all over the net and TV. ESPN featured a Wednesday doubleheader, as the Nets were in MSG to take on the Knicks (Nets won 116-109, as Kyrie missed again) and the nightcap featured the Pelicans in LA to face the Clippers. Kawhi Leonard scored 28 points, Paul George added 27 and the Clippers defeated the short-handed New Orleans Pelicans 111-106. The Pelicans were missing starters Zion Williamson, Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe but still covered. The Lakers won easily at OKC 128-99 and upped their NBA-best record to 10-3.TNT features a doubleheader on Thursday, as the Rockets are at the Spurs (7:35 ET) and the Warriors are at the Nuggets (10:05 ET). Not sure who will suit up for 3-6 Houston but note that the Spurs return home off a 4-1 road trip and are now 6-5. The Warriors are 6-5 on the season, after playing SEVEN straight at home (4-3 SU & ATS). The Nuggets 'exploded' out of the gates last season at 12-2 but enter this game just 5-6. The Spurs are favored by seven points and the Nuggets by five. Also playing on Thursday is the NBA's worst team, the 2-8 Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are 'home' (actually in Tampa) to host the 6-6 Hornets and are favored by NINE points (Toronto is 3-7 ATS!).Closing CFB thoughts: It was just a formality (no more split national champions these days with the CFP in place) but the AP released its final poll for the 2020 season on January 12 and Alabama was No. 1, followed by Ohio State, Clemson, Texas A&M and Notre Dame. The preseason poll came pretty close, as Clemson was No. 1 (finished third), Ohio State was No. 2 (finished 2nd) and Alabama was No. 3 (finished 1st). NINE of the AP's final top-10 entered the season ranked somewhere in the AP's preseason top-25, with the exception of Northwestern. The Wildcats were coming off a 3-9 season but went 7-2 and grabbed the No. 10 spot in the final poll. Overperforming were Cincinnati (No. 20 to open the season) and Iowa St (No. 23). The Bearcats finished 9-1 and ranked No. 8 and the Cyclones finished 9-3 and ranked No. 9.10 schools were ranked in the preseason top-25 but finished 'out of the money.' Three of them were in the top-10! No. 6 LSU (defending champs) finished 5-5, No. 7 Penn St finished 4-5 and No. 9 Oregon wound up 4-3. Joining Penn St in opening the season ranked but finishing sub-.500 were No. 25 Tennessee (3-7), No. 16 Michigan (2-4) and No. 19 Minnesota (3-4). There were also 10 schools unranked which finished the year ranked. BYU ended 11-1 and ranked No. 11, Indiana 6-2 and ranked No. 12, Coastal Carolina 11-1 and ranked No. 14, ULL 10-1 and ranked No. 15, Liberty 10-1 and ranked No.17, Miami-Fl 8-3 and ranked No. 22, Ball St 7-1 and ranked No. 23, San Jose St 7-1 and ranked No. 24 and Buffalo 6-1 and ranked No. 25. TWO schools each from the MAC, the SBC and from the Independents made the final top-25. Sports fans and bettors alike were VERY lucky to see the 2020 CFB season 'survive!"Friday's Notes will preview the NFL's Division Round games.Good luck...Larry

NCAA Thursday Night Basketball: Gonzaga/Pepperdine Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Jan 14, 2021

The number one ranked team in the nation plays on ESPN at 9 PM ET. Gonzaga has rattled off twelve straight victories to start the season against a rigorous non-conference schedule that has included powerhouses Kansas, West Virginia, Virginia, and Iowa. The Bulldogs have the country's top adjusted offensive efficiency number according to metrics at kenpom. They lead the nation with an effective field goal percentage of 60.8%. Gonzaga scores 96.1 points-per-game with a 55.6% field goal percentage. The Zags also rank 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. Opponents are shooting 42.7% against them and average 73.4 points-per-game. Gonzaga last played on Saturday when they defeated Portland by a 116-88 score at Portland as a 32.5-point favorite. The Bulldogs made 62.9% of their shots against the Pilots. That victory raised Gonzaga’s record in West Coast Conference play to 3-0.Head coach Mark Few returned three players from his seven-man rotation that finished 31-2 last season and looked poised to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament as a number one seed. Senior Corey Kispert leads the team this year with a 21.1 points-per-game after contributing 13.9 points-per-game last season. Sophomore Drew Timme is adding 18.5 points-per-game after averaging 9.5 points-per-game last year. Junior forward Joel Ayayi is averaging 11.8 points-per-game and adds 8.1 rebounds-per-game as the leading rebounder on the team. Jalen Suggs is a five-star freshman who is scoring 13.8 points-per-game. This group may be Few’s most talented roster in his 22 seasons as the Gonzaga head coach. Pepperdine returns to the court after their basketball program went on pause due to COVID issues. The Waves are 4-5 this season after suffering two straight upset losses. They last played on December 23rd when they lost at Cal-State Bakersfield, 79-51, as a 6.5-point favorite. Head coach Lorenzo Ramor returned four starters from the team last year that finished 16-16 and 8-8 in the West Coast Conference. They have a dangerous leader at point guard in senior Colbey Ross, who scores 19 points-per-game and adds 7.2 assists-per-game. Junior forward Kessler Edwards contributes 17.2 points-per-game. Ross has the talent to keep the Waves in this game. He scored 33 points earlier this season in a triple-overtime loss against UCLA. He scored 43 points in an overtime loss to Saint Mary’s last season. Pepperdine is scoring 77.9 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field. They rank 104th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. The Waves' opponents are shooting 42.5% against them and scoring 73. 6 points-per-game. They rank 190th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Waves have wins against UC-Irvine and California, along with St. Katherine and Concordia. In addition to their setbacks to UCLA and Cal-State Bakersfield, Pepperdine's losses were against San Diego State, Cal-State Northridge, and UC-Santa Barbara. This contest is Pepperdine's first game against a West Coast Conference opponent this season. BookMaker lists Gonzaga as a 25.5-point favorite with the total set at 166.

Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL, NBA, NHL and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Jan 14, 2021

The Thursday card features action in the NBA and college basketball, the English Premier League, and the NHL.There are five games in the NBA headlined by a double-header on TNT. The first game on TNT tips off at 7:35 PM ET with San Antonio hosting Houston. The Spurs have raised their record to a 6-5 mark by winning four of their last five games. They last played on Tuesday when they defeated Oklahoma City on the road as a 2.5-point favorite. The Rockets will be playing their first game in the post-James Harden era after the four-team blockbuster trade shipped Harden to Brooklyn. Houston received Victor Oladipo back in the deal from Indiana, but it is yet to be determined whether he will suit up in this game. The Rockets are 3-6 with four losses in their last five games after a 117-100 loss to the Lakers on Wednesday as a 5-point underdog. The nightcap on TNT has Denver hosting Golden State. The Nuggets fell to 5-6 on Wednesday with their 116-112 loss at Brooklyn as a 2-point favorite. Golden State dropped to 6-5 on Wednesday after getting upset at home to Indiana by a 104-95 score as a 3.5-point favorite. Denver is a 4.5-point favorite with the total set at 228 (all odds from BetOnline). The college basketball card tips off at noon ET in an American Athletic Conference clash between Central Florida and Temple. The Knights are 3.5-point road favorites with a total of 136.5. Stanford visits Utah at 5 PM ET on ESPN2. The Cardinal have won seven of their last eight games to raise their record to 8-3 with their 75-60 victory against Washington State on Saturday. The Utes have lost four straight games to fall to 4-5 after a 65-58 loss to Colorado on Monday. Stanford is a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 138. UCLA hosts Washington at 5 PM ET on FS1. The Bruins have won four in a row for their 9-2 record after they defeated Arizona on the road, 81-76, on Saturday. The Cougars have lost two of three to fall to a 9-2 record after their 75-60 loss at Stanford on Saturday. UCLA is a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 131.5.At 7 PM ET, Winthrop hosts Longwood in Big South action on ESPNU. The Eagles remain unbeaten in 11 games after their 91-82 win over Gardner Webb on Sunday. The Lancers won their third game in 14 contests this season on Sunday with their 78-69 win against Campbell. Winthrop is a 16.5-point favorite with a total of 151.5. Gonzaga hosts Pepperdine at 9 PM ET on ESPN. The Bulldogs are 12-0 after they defeated Portland on the road, 116-88. Pepperdine fell to 4-5 with two straight losses back on December 23rd with a 79-51 loss to Cal-State Bakersfield. Gonzaga is a 25.5-point favorite against the Wave coming off their long layoff with the over/under at 164.Eastern Illinois is at home against Morehead State at 9 PM ET on ESPNU. The Pirates fell to 5-6 with their 74-71 loss to Austin Peay on Saturday. The Eagles have won three straight games to raise their record to 7-6 after their win against Jacksonville State by a 56-55 score on Saturday. Eastern Illinois is a 6-point favorite with a total of 135.Saint Mary’s plays at home against BYU at 11 PM ET on ESPN. The Gaels are 9-2 after losing two of their last three games after their 66-64 win against Santa Clara on Saturday. The Cougars had their four-game winning streak snapped with an 86-69 loss at Gonzaga. Saint Mary’s is a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 132.5.The NHL has ten games on their schedule for their second day of the new season. Three games drop the puck at 7 PM ET, with two games ending the card at 10 PM ET. None of the games are on national television. Matchweek 17 of the English Premier League concludes at 3 PM ET with Arsenal hosting Crystal Palace. The Gunners are -1.0 goal line favorites with a total of 2.5. The NBC Sports Network has the broadcast.

Who's the Best Super Bowl Longshot Remaining?

by ASA, Inc.

Wednesday, Jan 13, 2021

With Kansas City and Green Bay holding down the best odds to win the Super Bowl we need to find an underdog that could yield a better return on investment. The Bills and Ravens are on serious hot streaks but a team that is even more intriguing is the Buccaneers. The road to the Super Bowl seems to be easier in the NFC than in the AFC this year. Tampa Bay has won five in a row and Tom Brady has begun to find his rhythm with Bruce Arians. SB Odds KC +200GB +380NO +550BUF +600BAL +800TB +850LAR +1600CLE +2500 Either the Ravens or Bills will be eliminated this weekend, and the winner gets a date with the defending champs in the AFC Championship Game. That alone is a tall task, while the Buccaneers have arguably an easier path to yield more money. This Sunday will be a major hurdle for the Bucs, however, the Saints have had major struggles of their own come playoff time in recent years. Brady has only been hit 16 times in their last 8 games and protecting him will be the absolute key to winning in New Orleans. Washington’s defensive front could not get consistent pressure last week which was surprising considering they were 6th in sacks during the year. Antonio Brown has mixed in nicely and will be tough to account for now that all of Tampa Bay’s weapons are up to speed. If they can win this weekend a matchup at Lambeau for the NFC Championship Game would be likely. Brady is used to playing in the cold and the lack of crowd noise makes road games less intimidating. Looking deeper, Tampa owns the 5th best defensive efficiency rating or DVOA according to Football Outsiders. They also are 3rd in offensive DVOA only behind the Chiefs and Packers. After slaughtering the Packers in week six it is not hard to imagine Brady winning the NFC Championship and getting a shot at his seventh Super Bowl ring. For the biggest return on investment the Bucs would be the best bet and are led by a QB who has been there plenty of times before.

Ness Notes: Wednesday, Jan 13

by Larry Ness

Wednesday, Jan 13, 2021

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."CBB: There were two top-25 matchups in Tuesday's play (No. 2 Baylor home to No. 13 West Va was postponed), No. 7 Michigan hosting No. 9 Wisconsin and No. 19 Duke playing at No. 20 Va Tech. Juwan Howard's Michigan team is "for real," as it overwhelmed No. 9 Wisconsin with a 36-3 outburst spanning the two halves and rolled to a 77-54 victory at Ann Arbor. Michigan's lead topped out at 40 points midway through the second half and maintained sole possession of first place in the Big Ten at 6-0. The Duke/Va Tech contest marked the first ACC game this season with both teams holding national rankings at the time of the game. Duke was playing only its second road game of the season and Virginia Tech opened an 18-point lead in the first half. Duke climbed within 64-59 with less than eight minutes remaining but the Hokies held on for a 74-67 win. Two top-10 teams were scheduled to play last night but No. Tennessee had its game at Vandy postponed. No. 6 Kansa played at unranked Oklahoma St and lost 75-70.No. 4 Texas (10-1) is home to No. 15 Texas Tech (10-3) in the lone Wednesday game involving ranked opponents. Texas returns home off a thrilling 72-70 win at then-No. 14 West Virginia on Saturday in which Andrew Jones hit the game-winning three-pointer with 1.8 seconds remaining. Texas continued its best start in Big 12 play since the 2010-11 season, when it began league play with 11 straight wins. Higher ranked teams are 25-11 (.694) SU but just 20-16 (55.6%) ATS in meetings between ranked opponents Y-T-D. Texas is favored by 2 1/2-points. Three ranked teams are in action against unranked opponents. 8-1 Louisville went from unranked to No. 16 in Monday's poll and will play at 3-3 Wake Forest (Cardinals are favored by eight points). 7-2 Virginia is ranked 18th and is home to 3-7 Notre Dame (Cavs are favored by 9 1/2-points points), while 9-3 Ohio St is back in the top-25 at No. 21, after a one-week absence. The Buckeyes will host 6-4 Northwestern, which comes in on a three-game slide. Ohio St is favored by eight points.NHL: The league announced that 27 players had confirmed positive COVID-19 tests during training camps, which concluded Tuesday. Seventeen of those players were members of the Dallas Stars, who shut down their training facilities last Friday after an outbreak. Dallas' first three games -- at Florida on Thursday and Friday and at Tampa Bay on Sunday -- have been postponed. The defending Western Conference champions are now tentatively set to open at the Lightning on Jan. 19 in a Stanley Cup Final rematch. Wednesday's Opening Night features a tripleheader on NBCSN: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (5:30 ET), Chicago at defending champion Tampa Bay (8:00 ET) and St Louis at Colorado (10:00 ET).NBA: More news comes from the NBA, which postponed four games this week because of COVID-19 issues, including three that involved the Boston Celtics. Along with Celtics, the Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Dallas Mavericks, Washington Wizards and Chicago Bulls are all dealing with significant issues in fielding the required eight players because of positive tests and contact tracing. The Lakers beat the Rockets 117-100 last night (2nd win in three nights at Houston) to up their NBA-best record to 9-3. ESPN features a Wednesday doubleheader, as the 6-6 Nets are in MSG to take on the 5-6 Knicks at 7:35 ET (Nets are favored by 5 1/2-points). The nightcap is at 10:05 ET In LA, as the 4-5 Pelicans take on the 7-4 Clippers (LA is favored by 7 1/2-points). Speaking of LA, the Lakers are "back at it" again tonight in OKC, where they are favored by eight points over the 5-5 Thunder.LSU 2019 vs Alabama 2020 comparison moved to Thursday's Notes with NFL Division Round preview set for Friday.Good luck...Larry

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