NFL Preseason Totals System

by Al McMordie

Sunday, Aug 28, 2022
The NFL preseason was shortened to 3 games in 2021.  From a handicapping standpoint, that reduced the number of opportunities.  But there are still some good situations, if you let them come to you.  Indeed, there's a nice over/under situation on today's card.

The game we are going to look at involves the New York Giants and New York Jets.  Both of these teams come into the game off back-to-back wins.  The Giants defeated New England, 23-21, in Week 1.  And then they bested the Bengals, 25-22, last week.  The Jets pulled off two upsets in their games.  They went into Philly, and won, 24-21, to open the preseason.  And then they upset Atlanta, 24-16, here at the Meadowlands, this past Monday.

The Jets are currently favored in this game by 4.5 points, while the over/under is 38.

The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for a high-scoring game this afternoon.  After all, each team has played back-to-back games that totaled 40+ points.

But as is often the case in sports betting, the obvious play isn't always the profitable play.  Consider that, over the past 27 preseasons, NFL games have gone 'under' the total 67% of the time when the two teams each were off back-to-back games that totaled 40+ points!

In fact, we saw an example of this last night when the Cincinnati Bengals hosted the Los Angeles Rams.  Cincinnati's first two games this preseason were a 36-23 loss to Arizona, and a 25-22 defeat at the NY Giants.  Similarly, the Rams opened their preseason with a high-scoring game -- a 29-22 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers.  And then they fell last week, 24-20, to the Houston Texans.  The over/under in the Rams/Bengals game yesterday was installed at 37 points.  And the game easily sailed under the posted number when Cincinnati prevailed, 16-7.

I look for another low-scoring game this afternoon in the Meadowlands.

Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie

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