Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NBA and CFL Previews and Odds - 06/10/2022

Friday, Jun 10, 2022

The Friday sports card features NBA, MLB, and CFL action.The finals in the National Basketball Association continue with the fourth game of the NBA finals between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics on ABC at 9 PM ET. The Celtics took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 116-100 victory against the Warriors as a 3.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Boston hosts Game 4 as a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 213 (all odds from DraftKings). The Friday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Three games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET. Philadelphia plays at home against Arizona, with Kyle Gibson pitching for the Phillies against Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks. Philadelphia is a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Yankees are at home against the Chicago Cubs, with the Yankees pitching Luis Severino against the Cubs Wade Miley. New York is a -250 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Milwaukee visits Washington with Aaron Ashby pitching for the Brewers against Erick Fedde of the Nationals. Milwaukee is a -165 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5.Two MLB games start at 7:10 PM ET. Cleveland hosts Oakland with the Guardians pitching Triston McKenzie against the A’s Paul Blackburn. Cleveland is a -165 money line favorite with a total of 8. Toronto travels to Detroit with Jose Berrios on the mound for the Blue Jays against Elvin Rodriguez of the Tigers. Toronto is a -200 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Atlanta plays at home against Pittsburgh at 7:20 PM ET. The Braves send out Spencer Strider to duel against the Pirates’ Roansy Contreras. Atlanta is a -220 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Four MLB games begin at 8:10 PM ET. The Chicago White Sox are at home against Texas, with Davis Martin pitching for the White Sox against Glenn Otto of the Rangers. Chicago is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Houston hosts Miami with the Astros pitching Luis Garcia against the Marlins Pablo Lopez. Houston is a -150 money line favorite with a total of 8. Tampa Bay visits Minnesota with Drew Rasmussen going for the Rays against Delvin Smeltzer of the Twins. Tampa Bay is a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Baltimore plays at Kansas City with the Orioles pitching Bruce Zimmermann against the Royals Jonathan Heasley. Both teams are priced as a -110 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. St. Louis plays at home against Cincinnati at 8:15 PM ET. Andre Pallante is the starting pitcher for the Cardinals against Luis Castillo for the Reds. St. Louis is a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The New York Mets are at Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 PM ET. The Mets pitch Tylor Megill against an Angels’ starting pitcher yet to be named. San Diego is at home against Colorado at 9:40 PM ET. Joe Musgrove pitches for the Padres against Chad Kohl of the Rockies. San Diego is a -260 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Boston travels to Seattle at 10:10 PM ET. The Red Sox turns to Rich Hill in their starting rotation against the Mariners’ Marco Gonzales. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at San Francisco at 10:15 PM ET. Walker Buehler pitches for the Dodgers against Jakob Junis of the Giants. Week 1 of the Canadian Football League continues with Winnipeg hosting Ottawa at 8:30 PM ET. The Blue Bombers are a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48.

Early MLB MVP Value Plays

by ASA, Inc.

Thursday, Jun 09, 2022

National League Pete Alonso (+1000) .277/14/48The Mets designated hitter is a major reason New York has jumped out to a sizable early season lead in the NL East. Alonso not only gets the attention playing in a premier market but he also has the stats to back him up. He currently leads the NL in RBIs and is second in home runs while batting .277. Having great stats in those three categories, playing in a premier market, and leading your team to first in the standings are a great formula for a MVP. CJ Cron (+2500) .298/14/40Betts, Machado, Goldschmidt, and Harper top the NL MVP odds, and for good reason. When strictly looking at their current stats, CJ Cron is the only other NL player who stacks up eerily similar in HRs (2nd), RBIs (5th), and BA (10th). Cron is a longshot and in order for a player like this to break through, he will need the Rockies to remain relevant in the stacked NL West. Colorado’s first baseman has implanted himself in the discussion with a hot start in the categories that matter for MVP. American League Jose Ramirez (+1200) .295/13/52The AL MVP is not as top heavy as the NL, and could realistically have any of the top 20 candidates win. Both Ohtani and Trout share the spotlight, and if the Angels miss the playoffs yet again, the race for MVP opens even more. Ramirez currently leads all of MLB in RBIs. He is also right in the mix with HRs and BA. Maybe his most impressive stat is that he has only 15 strikeouts on the year which is a 7.3% strikeout rate. Only one player in the past seven years has had a lower SO rate (Tommy La Stella 2019, 5.8%). The average SO rate in MLB last season was 24%. This a testament to how well Ramirez is hitting this year, and we find great value in him at 4th best AL MVP odds currently. Rafael Devers (+2000) .338/11/27Boston’s 3rd baseman is off to a great start to his year as expected. He was the Red Sox best hitter last year while leading them with 38 HRs and 113 RBIs. Based on last season we expect Devers to continue to rake and even pick up the pace on his HR and RBI numbers. As one of the best young players in baseball, playing on one of the most notable franchises, he is firmly in the hunt to win. Boston's hitting is not the issue and Devers’ heavy lifting will hopefully be enough to keep them in contention.

2022 Belmont Stakes Preview

by Al McMordie

Thursday, Jun 09, 2022

The 154th running of the Belmont Stakes will take place this weekend at Belmont Park on the famously spacious 1 1/2 mile, oval dirt track. It will go as Race #11 at approximately 6:44 pm. Although there is no chance of a Triple Crown this year and a relatively short field of just eight runners, there are some intriguing angles to pursue. Here is a look at Contenders, Pretenders, and a Live Longshot. And don't miss my Belmont Stakes Winner, as I look to cash each leg of the Triple Crown this season (after winning on Epicenter to place in the Kentucky Derby (paid $7.40), and Early Voting to win in the Preakness (paid $13.40)).Contenders: #6 - Mo Donegal. Simply put, Todd Pletcher loves Belmont Park and loves the Belmont Stakes. He has won this race three times, each with a very different type of horse. His first win was with a filly (Rags to Riches) and Pletcher is trying that angle again today with Nest. But the most talented and accomplished runner in the race is his 3YO colt by Uncle Mo, Mo Donegal. Mo Donegal ran all but one of his Kentucky Derby tune-ups in New York, including two races here at Belmont. His final tune-up for Kentucky was a victory at Aqueduct Park in the Wood Memorial. But Mo Donegal lost all chance at being adorned with the blanket of roses when he drew the rail position (#1) for the Derby. Still, despite that and a hellish trip in the race, Mo Donegal rallied to finish a very strong 5th out of 20 runners. Another run like that could easily win this race. Being a closer, the only question is whether he will have enough pace to run into. But the 12-furlong distance should play right into his hands if the front runners are tiring turning for home. His class alone could easily get Pletcher his fourth Belmont Stakes on Saturday. #1 - We the People. Not a name familiar to those who have been following the Triple Crown series, We the People skipped both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness (he didn't have enough qualifying points to run in Kentucky). But the son of Constitution has been impressive in most of his races and his 10-length victory right here at Belmont Park in the Peter Pan Stakes a week before the Preakness indicated that he was ready to take this logical next step. And We the People has one thing that almost none of the other runners have: Controlling Speed. We the People could find himself alone on the front end on Saturday and if that happens, he could be very hard to run down. The fact that he drew the #1 post position is icing on the cake for that type of running style. Rudolphe Brisset is not a household name like Todd Pletcher or Bob Baffert, but he is a talented trainer whose time finally might have come. Pretenders: #4 - Rich Strike. Just about everyone other than the connections of the horses he beat loves the rags-to-riches story of Rich Strike in the Kentucky Derby. Like Mine That Bird, they will probably make a movie about his accomplishment on the first Saturday in May one day. In a rare and calculated move, the owners and trainer Eric Reed decided to skip the Preakness and instead point to this race. You would think that the way he closed at 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs, Rich Strike is going to LOVE the 12 furlongs here today. But there were 19 other horses beating each other's brains out in the Derby and that's not going to be the case today. Plus, we're still talking about a former $30,000 claimer which, if he came in here not having won the Derby, would be at least 20-1 in this spot. So at 7-2, 4-1, or 5-1 even, Rich Strike is a horrible bet in the Belmont. We wouldn't even bet him to hit the board or in the bottom of a trifecta against this group. # 3 - Nest. As we said earlier, Todd Pletcher has won this race before with a filly. That was 2007 with the brilliant Rags to Riches, and no filly has won the Belmont Stakes since. Nest is a very nice horse, but she is no Rags to Riches or Rachel Alexandra. She probably doesn't belong here, but you can't blame the connections for trying. The daughter of Curlin was soundly beaten by Secret Oath in the Kentucky Oaks and that filly could finish no better than fourth in the Preakness. She might be playable in the back end of the Trifecta, but that's about it Live Longshot: #7 - Golden Glider. This Mark Casse-trained son of Ghostzapper offers bettors an intriguing alternative for their exactas and trifectas. Golden Glider's last race was here at Belmont Park in the Peter Pan. Nobody was going to catch We the People that day, but Golden Glider finished second and was the only horse making up ground at the end of the nine furlongs. Another 3/8 mile might just be enough to narrow that gap to the point where Golden Glider is giving We the People all he can handle. Golden Glider is 20-1 on the morning line and he just might go off at that price as nobody is talking about this horse or giving him any chance on Saturday. Dylan Davis gets the mount on Golden Glider and there's no track in the country where having a local rider who's familiar with the oval is more critical than Belmont Park. Keep an eye on his odds to see if any late money is coming in and wager accordingly.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 06/09/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Jun 09, 2022

The Thursday sports card features NHL, MLB, and CFL action.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 5 of the best-of-seven series in the Eastern Conference finals between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the New York Rangers on ESPN at 8:15 PM ET. The Lightning evened this series at 2-2 with their 4-1 victory at home on Tuesday. Both teams have won both their games on home ice with the series moving back to New York at Madison Square Garden for Game 5. Tampa Bay is a -125 money line road favorite with the total set at 5.5 (all odds from DraftKings).The Thursday card in Major League Baseball has 11 games on its schedule. Cincinnati plays at home against Arizona at 12:35 PM ET. Tyler Mahle pitches for the Reds against Zach Davies of the Diamondbacks. Cincinnati is a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 10. Tampa Bay plays at home against St. Louis at 1:10 PM ET. The Rays pitch Shane McClanahan against the Cardinals Miles Mikolas. Tampa Bay is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 7. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 2:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit Chicago to play the White Sox with Tyler Anderson pitching for the Dodgers against Dylan Cease of the White Sox. Los Angeles is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Milwaukee is at home against Philadelphia, with the Brewers pitching Corbin Burnes against the Phillies Zach Eflin. Milwaukee is a -165 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Colorado plays at San Francisco at 3:45 PM ET. Austin Gomber pitches for the Rockies against Logan Webb of the Giants. Miami is at home against Washington at 6:40 PM ET. The Marlins pitch Trevor Rogers against the Nationals Stephen Strasburg. Miami is a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Oakland travels to Cleveland at 7:10 PM ET. James Kaprielian pitches for the A’s against the Guardians Konnor Pilkington. Atlanta hosts Pittsburgh at 7:20 PM ET. The Braves pitch Max Fried against the Pirates J.T. Brubaker. Atlanta is a -275 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The New York Yankees visit Minnesota at 7:40 PM ET. Gerrit Cole pitches for the Yankees against Dylan Bundy of the Twins. New York is a -200 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Baltimore travels to Kansas City at 8:10 PM ET. Jordan Lyles pitches for the Orioles against the Royals Kris Bubic. Both teams are priced at -110 with a total of 9.5. The Los Angeles Angels host Boston at 9:38 PM ET. The Angels pitch Shohei Ohtani against the Red Sox Nick Pivetta. Los Angeles is a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.The Canadian Football League kicks off their 2022 season, with Calgary hosting Montreal at 9 PM ET. The Stampeders lost in overtime, 33-30, in the West Division semifinals at Saskatchewan last season. The Alouettes lost in the East Division semifinals, 23-12, at Hamilton last year.Calgary is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 48.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and MLB Previews and Odds - 06/08/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Jun 08, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features NBA and MLB action.The finals in the National Basketball Association continue with the third game of the NBA finals between the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics on ABC at 9 PM ET. The Warriors evened this series at 1-1 with their 107-88 victory at home against the Celtics as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. Golden State is a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at 212. The Wednesday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. Pittsburgh hosts Detroit at 12:35 PM ET. Mitch Keller pitches for the Pirates against Alex Faedo of the Tigers. Pittsburgh is a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Toronto visits Kansas City at 2:10 PM ET. The Blue Jays pitch Yusei Kikuchi against the Royals Brad Singer. Toronto is a -150 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Three games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. Houston plays at home against Seattle, with Jose Urquidy pitching for the Astros against Logan Gilbert of the Mariners. Houston is a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Cincinnati is at home against Arizona, with Mike Minor pitching for the Reds against Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks. Cincinnati is a -120 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. Washington travels to Miami with Josiah Gray pitching for the Nationals against Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins. The Chicago Cubs play at Baltimore at 7:05 PM ET. The Cubs pitch Marcus Stroman pitching against the Orioles Jordan Lyles. Chicago is a -135 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two more MLB games start at 7:10 PM ET. St. Louis visits Tampa Bay with Packy Naughton pitching for the Cardinals against Corey Kluber of the Rays. Cleveland is at home against Texas with the Guardians pitching Shane Bieber against the Rangers Dane Dunning. Cleveland is a -155 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Atlanta is at home against Oakland at 7:20 PM ET. Ian Anderson pitches for the Braves against Jared Koenig of the A’s. Atlanta is a -240 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The New York Yankees play at Minnesota at 7:40 PM ET. The Yankees pitch Nestor Cortes against the Twins Chris Archer. New York is a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Two MLB games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Philadelphia travels to Milwaukee with Aaron Nola pitching for the Phillies against Adrian Houser of the Brewers. Philadelphia is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at Chicago to play the White Sox with Tony Gonsolin pitching for the Dodgers against Johnny Cueto of the White Sox. Los Angeles is a -175 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Boston plays at Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 PM ET. The Red Sox pitch Nathan Eovaldi against the Angels’ Reid Detmers. Boston is a -165 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. San Diego hosts the New York Mets at 9:40 PM ET as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 7. San Francisco plays at home against Colorado at 9:45 PM ET. Alex Wood pitches for the Giants against Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies. San Francisco is a -210 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.

CFL 2022 West Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Tuesday, Jun 07, 2022

Canadian Football League West Division Preview for CFL 2022BC Lions – This team is off a 5-9 season last year and now they have a QB situation that is full of inexperience. Maybe Rourke and O’Connor, if called upon, can get it done but are they really the answer after the retirement of Reilly? The fact is the Lions could make a minor move this season if they get solid QB play but this still appears to be one of the weaker teams in the league and when you play in the West with strong teams like the Riders, Stampeders and Bombers that makes things even tougher. Calgary Stampeders – I am looking for Calgary to respond this year after a bit of a disappointing, though winning, season last year. Also, the Stampeders season will be keyed by the performance of QB Bo Levi Mitchell but I definitely like his supporting cast. That said, most signs point to this team having the chance to be in the mix with the Roughriders and Blue Bombers. Edmonton Elks – There were two 3-11 teams last season and one, Ottawa, made a lot of big off-season additions and should be much better. The other, this Elks team, looks like it has not changed nearly enough to see significant improvement. Heading into this season this looks like the worst team in the league. Making matters even worse for Edmonton heading into the season is the Arbuckle injury situation at QB. So this team is one that likely needs faded early and often this season. Saskatchewan Roughriders – The Grey Cup will be in Regina in November so you know this is a special year for the Roughriders. The hope in Saskatchewan is that they can make a run but they’ll need to score better than last season as they did have troubles at times putting up the points and that is what separated from them from the top teams. Having Duke Williams hopefully healthy for the full season at the wideout spot should help the receiving corps with the added deep ball threat. Solid team again this season but will only go as far as QB Cody Fajardo and this receiving group will take them. Winnipeg Blue Bombers – Back to back Grey Cup Champions so certainly they have a bullseye on their backs coming into this season. They signed a lot of their core again but did lose RB Harris who was a such a key player for them. He is now with Toronto. However, it is the system that is also a key with Winnipeg and they continue to get it done. So though a 3-peat may be too much to ask, this team is going to contend once again in my opinion.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 06/07/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Jun 07, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features NHL and MLB action.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 4 of the best-of-seven series in the Eastern Conference finals between the New York Rangers and the Tampa Bay Lightning on ESPN at 8:07 PM ET. The Lightning won their first game in this series with a 2-1 victory against the Rangers on Sunday. New York has a 2-1 lead in the series. Tampa Bay is a -175 money line favorite with the total set at 5.5 (all odds from DraftKings).The Tuesday card in Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. Texas visits Cleveland at 3:10 PM ET in the first game of their doubleheader after their scheduled game on Monday got rained out. Jon Gray pitches for the Rangers against Cal Quantrill of the Guardians. The second game is scheduled at 6:10 PM ET, with neither starting pitcher yet to be named. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. Cincinnati hosts Arizona with Graham Ashcraft pitching for the Reds against Tyler Gilbert of the Diamondbacks. Cincinnati is a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 10. Miami plays at home against Washington with the Marlins pitching Edward Cabrera against the Nationals Joan Anon. Miami is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8. Two MLB games start at 7:05 PM ET. The Chicago Cubs visit Baltimore with the Cubs pitching Keegan Thompson against the Orioles Kyle Bradish. Chicago is a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Detroit is at Pittsburgh with Tarik Skubal pitching for the Tigers against Jose Quintana of the Pirates. Tampa Bay hosts St. Louis at 7:10 PM ET. The Rays send out Jeffrey Springs against the Cardinals Dakota Hudson. Tampa Bay is a -150 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Atlanta plays at home against Oakland at 7:20 PM ET. Kyle Wright pitches for the Braves against Cole Irvin of the A’s. Atlanta is a -235 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Yankees travel to Minnesota at 7:40 PM ET. The Yankees pitch Jameson Taillon against a Twins starting pitcher yet to be named.Four MLB games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Milwaukee is at home against Philadelphia with Jason Alexander pitching for the Brewers against Ranger Suarez for the Phillies. Milwaukee is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit Chicago to play the White Sox on TBS with Mitch White pitching for the Dodgers against Michael Kopech of the White Sox. Los Angeles is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Houston plays at home against Seattle with the Astros pitching Justin Verlander against the Mariners Chris Flexen. Houston is a -240 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Texas is at Kansas City with Alek Manoah on the mound for the Rangers against Brad Keller of the Royals. Texas is a -210 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Boston travels to Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 PM ET. The Red Sox pitch Garrett Whitlock against a starting pitcher yet to be named by the Angels. San Diego hosts the New York Mets at 9:40 PM ET. Yu Darvish pitches for the Padres against Taijuan Walker of the Mets. San Diego is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. San Francisco plays are at home against Colorado at 9:45 PM ET. The Giants pitch Carlos Rodon against the Rockies' German Marquez.

CFL 2022 East Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Monday, Jun 06, 2022

Canadian Football League East Division Preview for CFL 2022 Hamilton Tiger-Cats – The Ti-Cats have reached the Grey Cup each of the last two seasons as East Division Champions and yet fell short each season. Can they reach the big game again this season? It will depend heavily on QB Dane Evans. It is now his team with Jeremiah Masoli now having moved on. This is a lot of pressure on Evans but I also really like this defense again this season. On the strength of that defense and with solid weapons in the passing game on offense, you can bank on Hamilton being one of the best teams in the CFL again this season. Montreal Alouettes – Too many penalties, too many fumbles lost, losing games decided in the final minutes ... all these things combined to lead to a mediocre season for Montreal. I like the Als to have a solid season this year as they are strong at QB and have some talented playmaking options at the skill positions. However, this team did lose some key personnel and I am not solid on the defense just yet. That D, including getting rookie Richards on the field early and with success, is likely going to key the Als season. Ottawa Redblacks – Ottawa will be much improved after a 3-11 season. They added QB Jeremiah Masoli and a wealth of talent with other player additions to build up a much more competitive roster for 2022. This team is certainly not going to blow teams away but my expectation is they will be able to get the .500 level as they added a lot of weapons for Masoli plus bolstered the offensive line. Defensively they also bolstered their talent level and I expect some value with backing the Redblacks early this season as many will still be expecting the same old Ottawa but Masoli and company have rejuvenated this team. Toronto Argonauts – Think the Argos could be due for a regression here. They dominated with wins in the final minutes of games last season and won a lot of games by 4 or less points. I know they are still a solid team but you just have to feel their luck is going to run out. They added a couple of aging vets with Banks and Harris. Just feel Toronto is reaching here a bit and they need to be a little stronger defensively. Argonauts known for being a bit inconsistent defensively. Solid QB but just a question mark about the overall cohesiveness of this group with some new faces and, again, teams like Ottawa improving and you know Hamilton is still hungry. All in all, I am expecting a slight regression with the Argos this season.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 06/06/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jun 06, 2022

The Monday sports card features NHL and MLB action.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 4 of the best-of-seven series in the Western Conference finals between the Colorado Avalanche and the Edmonton Oilers on TNT at 8:07 PM ET. The Avalanche took a 3-0 series lead with their 4-2 victory on the road on Saturday. Colorado is a -130 road favorite with an over/under of 7 (all odds from DraftKings).The Monday card in Major League Baseball has six games on its schedule. The Cincinnati Reds host the Arizona Diamondbacks at 6:40 PM ET. The Reds lost their fourth game in their last five on Sunday in a 5-4 loss at home to Washington. Their record dropped to 18-35 on the season. The Diamondbacks lost their third game in their last four with their 3-0 loss at Pittsburgh yesterday. They have a 26-29 record. Hunter Greene pitches for Cincinnati against Madison Bumgarner for Arizona. Cincinnati is a -125 money line favorite with the total set at 9.5. The Texas Rangers visit the Cleveland Guardians at 7:10 PM ET. The Rangers lost their fourth game in their last five in a 6-5 loss to Seattle in 10 innings on Sunday. Their record fell to 25-28 with the loss. The Guardians won their fifth game in their last six with a 3-2 victory at Baltimore yesterday. They raised their record to 24-25 with the victory. Texas pitches Jon Gray against Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill. Both teams are priced at -110 with an over/under of 9.5. Two games throw out the first pitch at 8:10 PM ET. The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Kansas City to play the Royals. The Blue Jays were on an eight-game winning streak but they have since lost two of three after an 8-6 loss at home to Minnesota yesterday. They have a 31-22 record. The Royals lost their sixth game in their last seven with their 7-4 loss to Houston on Sunday. Their record fell to 17-35 with the setback. Ross Stripling pitches for Toronto against Daniel Lynch for Kansas City. The Blue Jays are a -170 money line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners. The Astros won their sixth game in their last seven with the victory on the road against the Royals on Sunday. They improved their record to 35-19 with the win. The Mariners won their third game in their last four with their extra-inning victory against the Rangers yesterday. Houston pitches Cristian Javier against Seattle’s Robbie Ray. Houston is a -160 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.The Los Angeles Angels play at home against the Boston Red Sox at 9:38 PM ET. The Angels are on an 11-game losing streak after their 9-7 loss on the road at Philadelphia on Sunday. Their record has fallen to a 27-28 mark. The Red Sox won their fourth in a row with their 5-2 victory at Oakland yesterday. They have app their record back to .500 at 27-27. Noah Syndergaard takes the ball for Los Angeles against Michael Wacha for Boston. The Angels are a -125 money line favorite with a total of 8.5.The New York Mets are at San Diego to play the Padres at 9:40 PM ET. The Mets beat the Dodgers, 6-5, in 10 innings on Sunday to improve their record to 37-19. The Padres won their third straight game with their 6-4 victory in 10 innings at Milwaukee yesterday. They have a 33-21 record. New York pitches Carlos Carrasco against San Diego’s Blake Snell. The Mets are a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.

NBA Playoffs 1991-2022: ATS Win Percentage of SU Winner; Average Line Differential

by Al McMordie

Monday, Jun 06, 2022

In Game 2 of the 2022 NBA Finals, the Golden State Warriors blew out the Boston Celtics, 107-88. The key was to the victory was the Warriors’ 35-14 advantage in the third quarter. And that was the 91st different quarter in these 2022 Playoffs where one team had a double-digit margin over the other. That’s the all-time record for such blowout quarters, exceeding the previous high of 90 quarters in the 2017 playoffs. The upshot of this is that we've seen a whole host of blowout games, and this NBA Playoffs is likely to set the record for the largest average point spread differential for its games (dating back to 1991). Not surprisingly, we've had very few hotly-contested games. And the straight-up winner has covered the spread in a relatively-high percentage of games. The past two seasons have two of the four-highest ATS win percentages (for the SU winner) in the last 32 Playoff seasons (the 2021 season saw the SU winner go 81-4 ATS, for a 95.2% ATS record - the all-time high).To put this current season in an historical perspective, let's review the data from 1991 to 2022 (the 2022 data goes through June 5). -- Editor's note: this data has now been updated to go through the end of the 2021-22 season, on June 16.NBA Playoffs, Year by Year ATS record of the team which won straight-up.And the average point spread differential of each playoff game.1991: 54-12-2, 81.8%, avg LD 9.251992: 57-14-2, 80.2%, avg LD 8.561993: 61-14-1, 81.3%, avg LD 7.891994: 63-14-0, 81.8%, avg LD 7.591995: 59-12-2, 83.0%, avg LD 10.281996: 52-16-0, 76.4%, avg LD, 9.971997: 52-18-2, 74.2%, avg LD, 8.021998: 57-13-1, 81.4%, avg LD, 9.141999: 54-12-0, 81.8%, avg LD, 9.502000: 57-15-3, 79.1%, avg LD, 8.772001: 59-10-2, 85.5%, avg LD, 9.692002: 50-19-2, 72.4%, avg LD, 8.132003: 75-11-2, 87.2%, avg LD, 9.022004: 62-17-3, 78.4%, avg LD, 8.092005: 75-8-1, 90.3%, avg LD, 9.622006: 70-16-3, 81.3%, avg LD, 9.282007: 61-14-4, 81.3%, avg LD 8.292008: 71-13-2, 84.5%, avg LD, 10.272009: 67-16-2, 80.7%, avg LD 10.422010: 74-7-1, 91.3%, avg LD 10.062011: 64-13-4, 83.1%, avg LD 8.462012: 66-15-3, 81.4%, avg LD 7.582013: 72-13, 84.7%, avg LD, 9.932014: 73-14-2, 83.9%, avg LD, 9.762015: 66-14-1, 82.5%, avg LD, 9.792016: 75-11, 87.2%, avg LD, 11.522017: 62-16-1, 79.4%, avg LD, 10.742018: 70-12, 85.3%, avg LD, 10.572019: 71-10-1, 87.6%, avg LD, 10.052020: 70-10-3, 87.5%, avg LD, 9.932021: 81-4, 95.2%, avg LD, 11.212022: 78-9, 89.6%, avg LD 11.89The average LD in Playoffs, 1991-2022, is 9.51The SU winner in a Playoff game has gone 2078-412-50, 83.4% ATSThis past regular season (2021-22), the average line differential was 10.62.In the 2020-21 regular season, the average line differential was 10.70.Indeed, the past two regular seasons have seen a big jump in this metric. Historically, in the regular season, from 1990-91 to 2021-22 the average line differential was just 9.19. And the past two post-seasons rank among the top 3 Playoffs (along with 2016) with the greatest line differentials.What immediately jumps out is how the points of an NBA point spread are becoming less "valuable." And, of course, this has implications for teaser bets. Say, for example, a sportsbook offers odds of -120 on a 2-team, 5-point NBA teaser. That would have a much different value in 2022, when the average game in the regular season fell 10.62 points away from the point spread than even just a few years ago.Of course, based on this data, one should also consider the (negative) implications of buying half-points. And given the relatively few times (13 of 168 the past two post-seasons) a Playoff game has resulted in an underdog losing SU, but covering the point spread, one may want to consider -- if one likes the underdog -- taking it on the moneyline rather than the point spread.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds 06/05/2022

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jun 05, 2022

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The finals in the National Basketball Association continues with the second game of the NBA finals between the Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors on ABC at 8:10 PM ET. The Celtics took a 1-0 lead in this series with a 120-108 upset victory on the road against the Warriors as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday. Golden State is a 4-point favorite with the total set at 215.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 3 of the best-of-seven series in the Eastern Conference finals between the New York Rangers and the Tampa Bay Lightning on ESPN at 3:07 PM ET. The Rangers took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 3-2 victory at home against the Lightning on Friday. Tampa Bay is a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Sunday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees host Detroit on Peacock at 11:35 AM ET. Jordan Montgomery pitchers for the Yankees against Rony Garcia of the Tigers. New York is a -310 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 PM ET. Philadelphia plays at home against the Los Angeles Angels with the Phillies pitching Kyle Gibson against the Angels’ Patrick Sandoval. Philadelphia is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Cleveland travels to Baltimore with the Guardians pitching Zach Plesac against an Orioles’ starting pitcher yet to be determined. Toronto is at home against Minnesota at 1:37 PM ET. The Blue Jays pitch Kevin Gausman against the Twins Devin Smeltzer. Toronto is a -210 money line favorite with a total of 8. Three more MLB games start at 1:40 PM ET. The Chicago White Sox play at Tampa Bay with Lucas Giolito pitching for the White Sox against Ryan Yarbrough for the Rays. Cincinnati hosts Washington with the Reds going with Luis Castillo against the Nationals Patrick Corbin. Cincinnati is a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. San Francisco visits Miami with Jakob Junis pitching for the Reds against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Marlins.Two MLB games begin at 2:10 PM ET. Houston plays at Kansas City with the Astros pitching Framber Valdez against the Royals Jonathan Heasley. Houston is a -235 money line road favorite with a total of 9.5. Milwaukee is at home against San Diego with Eric Lauer on the mound for the Brewers against Mike Clevinger of the Padres. Milwaukee is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Texas hosts Seattle at 2:35 PM ET. The Rangers pitch Martin Perez against the Mariners George Kirby. Texas is a -130 money line favorite with a total of 8. Atlanta visits Colorado at 3:10 PM ET. Charlie Morton pitches for the Braves against Ryan Feltner of the Rockies. Atlanta is a -150 money line road favorite with an over/under of 12. Oakland is at home against Boston at 4:07 PM ET. The A’s pitches Frankie Montas against the Red Sox’s Rich Hill. Oakland is a -120 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets at 4:10 PM ET. Julio Urias pitches for the Dodgers against Trevor Williams of the Dodgers. Los Angeles is a -170 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN has the St. Louis Cardinals visiting the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field at 7:08 PM ET. Adam Wainwright pitches for the Cardinals against Justin Steele of the Cubs. St. Louis is a -140 money line road favorite.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 06/04/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jun 04, 2022

The Saturday sports card features NHL and MLB action.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 3 of the best-of-seven series in the Western Conference finals between the Colorado Avalanche and the Edmonton Oilers on TNT at 8 PM ET. The Avalanche took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 4-0 victory at home against the Oilers on Thursday. Colorado is a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 7 (all odds from DraftKings).The Saturday card in Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees are at home against Detroit at 1:05 PM ET. Luis Severino pitches for the Yankees against Beau Brieske of the Tigers. New York is a -290 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. St. Louis plays at Chicago against the Cubs in the opening game of their doubleheader at 1:20 PM ET. The Cubs send out Matt Swarmer to pitch against a Cardinals pitcher yet to be named. Toronto plays at home against Minnesota at 3:07 PM ET. Jose Berrios pitches for the Blue Jays against Dylan Bundy of the Twins. Toronto is a -165 money line favorite with a total of 9. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 PM ET. Arizona visits Pittsburgh with the Diamondbacks pitching Zach Davies against the Pirates Roansy Contreras. Cleveland plays at Baltimore with Triston McKenzie taking the ball for the Guardians against Tyler Wells of the Orioles. Cleveland is a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Texas is at home against Seattle with Glenn Otto pitching for the Rangers against Marco Gonzales for the Mariners. Texas is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 9. Boston travels to Oakland at 4:07 PM ET. The Red Sox pitch Nick Pivetta against the A’s Paul Blackburn. Boston is a -130 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Five MLB games start at 4:10 PM ET. San Francisco is at Miami with Logan Webb pitching for the Giants against Pablo Lopez of the Marlins. Both teams have prices at -110 with a total of 7. Houston plays at Kansas City with the Astros sending out Luis Garcia to face the Royals Kris Bubic. Milwaukee hosts San Diego with Aaron Ashby on the mound for the Brewers against Mackenzie Gore of the Padres. Milwaukee is a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Cincinnati is at home against Washington, with the Reds pitching Tyler Mahle against the Nationals Erick Fedde. Tampa Bay hosts the Chicago White Sox with Drew Rasmussen pitching for the Rays against Dylan Cease of the White Sox. Tampa Bay is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 7. Two MLB games begin at 7:15 PM ET for Fox’s regional televised coverage. The Los Angeles Angels are at Philadelphia with Michael Lorenzen pitching for the Angels against Zack Wheeler of the Phillies. The Cardinals play at Wrigley Field against the Cubs in the second game of their doubleheader with Caleb Kilian being called up to pitch for Chicago against a starting pitcher yet to be named for St. Louis. Atlanta travels to Colorado at 9:10 PM ET. The Braves turn to Spencer Strider to pitch against the Rockies Kyle Freeland. Atlanta is a -160 money line road favorite with an over/under of 12. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the New York Mets at 10:10 PM ET. Walker Buehler pitches for the Dodgers against David Peterson of the Mets. Los Angeles is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8.5.

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