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NBA Playoffs: Scoring is (Way) Down!

by AAA Sports

Tuesday, Jun 29, 2021

Among the four teams left in the NBA Playoffs, scoring is way down. Let’s take a look at each of them.In the regular season, Milwaukee games averaged 234.3 points/game. That was the highest average in the league. But in the playoffs, that average has declined down to 212.3. Over the course of their second round series against Brooklyn, we saw the O/U line decrease by more than 20 points. The first round series vs. Miami saw the O/U line decline by six points from the first game to the last game. A quick note that the total for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals is set to be the lowest of the entire series. The Under is 9-4 in Bucks postseason games.Speaking of the Eastern Conference Finals, Milwaukee's opponent (Atlanta) has seen its playoff games average 213.0 combined points. That’s down from 225.1 in the regular season. The Under is 10-5 in Hawks playoff games. Their regular season scoring average was 113.7. They’ve exceeded that number in just two playoff games. Both were Game 1’s. Over in the West, declines are similar. Clippers games averaged 221.8 points in the regular season. That’s down to 218.4 in the playoffs. Of the four teams left, their decline is the smallest. The Under is 9-9 in their playoff games. But the last five games, four of them against Phoenix, have averaged only 204.2 points. Suns games averaged 224.8 points in the regular season. Playoff games are down to 209.3. They have not scored more than 104 in any of their last four games. There have been four games in the playoffs where Phoenix has failed to break 100 points. Three of them have been at Staples Center, which is where they are playing their next game. The Under is 9-6 in Suns playoff games.I point all this out because oddsmakers were initially slow to react to the big decline in scoring. They seem to have now adjusted better and I’d be shocked if we see another total above 220.0 for awhile. Scoring always declines in the playoffs as defense tightens and the number of possessions decreases. But we’re reaching a point where there could soon be value in taking Overs. 

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2021 MLB: Overachievers & Underachievers

by Power Sports

Tuesday, Jun 29, 2021

I’m continuing our monthly check-in on “America’s Pastime” with a look at which MLB teams are overachieving and underachieving the most, based on expected vs. actual win totals. Expected win total is sometimes referred to as Pythagorean win percentage. “The concept strives to determine the number of games that a team *should* have won -- based on its total number of runs scored versus its number of runs allowed -- in an effort to better forecast that team's future outlook.”I think this tool is extremely important in evaluating how a team has “really played.”Now onto the over and underachievers. Overachievers - Teams whose actual win total exceeds expected win total by the widest margins. 1. Seattle - At 41-38, the Mariners find themselves on the periphery of the Wild Card race in the American League. But it’s a race they probably shouldn’t even be involved with, at least based on their expected win total which is just 35. Their run differential is -43. The M’s have been really lucky in extra inning games (7-1) and their 18 one-run wins are the most in MLB. I do not expect them to stay in Wild Card contention. Not just because of all the above, but also due to being in the same division as Houston and Oakland. 2. Milwaukee - The Brewers come into the week leading the NL Central at 45-33. It will be interesting to see what happens against the second place Cubs, who actually have a slightly better run differential and thus expected win total. The Brew Crew’s expected win total is just 40. They are 26-9 in day games, but below .500 in night games. I do like Milwaukee’s starting pitching and they very well could win this division. Unlike Seattle, I would NOT write this team off. 3. Boston/Cleveland/St. Louis - These teams have all exceeded their expected win total by four. Boston (47-31) leads a tough AL East, but actually has the third best run differential in the division. They have an expected win total of 43 and I expect them to tumble. I also don’t anticipate Cleveland (41-33)  making the Wild Card, even though they look like a lock to finish second in a pretty weak Central Division. While eight games above .500, the Tribe have a minus 3 run differential YTD and an expected win total of 37. St. Louis has already fallen to fourth in the NL Central (37-41) and while they’ll always stay ahead of Pittsburgh, the Cardinals’ run differential is -52 and that’s fourth worst in the whole Senior Circuit. They have a win expectancy of 33. Underachievers - Teams whose expected win total exceeds actual win total by the widest margins. 1. Miami - The Marlins are last in the NL East. But they are the only team in the division besides the Mets to have a positive win differential. Their actual record is 33-44, but their run differential says they should be 41-36. Being 6-16 in one-run games has hurt. Seeing as how they overachieved last season, I don’t think the Marlins get back in the division or Wild Card race. But they are a team that should have a better overall record.2. Arizona - Well, here’s an ugly one. The Diamondbacks stink. When they won 10-1 Saturday in San Diego, it snapped a MLB-record 24-game losing streak. They have lost 35 of their last 39 games overall. They have baseball’s overall worst record at 22-56. But as bad as things are, the D’backs should have a few more wins under their belt. Their expected win total is 27. They are 2-18 in one-run games. There’s no way any team can continue being THIS bad. 3. Toronto - The Blue Jays are 40-36 and in third place in the East. But they have a +65 run differential. That’s top five in the American League. Compared to pretenders like Seattle and Cleveland and overachievers like Boston, the Blue Jays are actually playing better baseball. They could be a Wild Card team or even win the division. Recently, the Jays have been winning more. They are 7-1 their last eight games, though most of those wins have come against Baltimore. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, MLB, WNBA and Euro 2020 Previews and Odds - 06/29/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Jun 29, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features games in the NBA, MLB, WNBA, and Euro 2020.The NBA playoffs continue with Game 4 in the Eastern Conference finals on TNT. Milwaukee took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 113-102 victory in Atlanta as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Bucks have won four of their last five games. The Hawks have lost three of five games. Milwaukee is a 7-point road favorite with a total set at 219.5 (all odds from BetOnline unless indicated otherwise). Tip-off is at 8:35 PM ET. Fifteen games are on the MLB docket. Tampa Bay visits Washington at 7:05 PM ET as a -111 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Rich Hill pitches for the Rays against the Nationals’ Joe Ross. The New York Yankees host the Los Angeles Angels as a -145 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Yankees’ Jameson Taillon pitches against the Angels’ Andrew Heaney. Miami plays at Philadelphia as a -117 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Taylor Rogers for the Marlins pitches against Vincent Velasquez of the Phillies. Toronto plays at home against Seattle at 7:07 PM ET as a -192 money line favorite with a total of a 10. Robbie Ray of the Blue Jays faces Chris Flexen of the Mariners. Boston is at home against Kansas City at 7:10 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 10.5. The Red Sox send out Nick Pivetta to pitch against Brad Keller. Cleveland hosts Detroit as a -182 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. Jean-Carlos Mejia pitches for the Indians against the Tigers’ Jose Arena. San Diego travels to Cincinnati as a -161 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Blake Snell pitches for the Padres against Tony Santillan of the Reds. Atlanta plays at home against the New York Mets at 7:20 PM ET as a -160 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Braves pitch Charlie Morton against the Mets’ Tylor McGill. Houston hosts Baltimore at 8:10 PM ET, with both teams priced at -105. Jose Urquidy pitches for the Astros, and the Orioles starting pitcher is undecided. The Chicago White Sox play at home against Minnesota as a -136 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. After Monday’s rainout, the White Sox push Lucas Giolito back a day to make this start in a rematch against the Twins’ Kenta Maeda. Milwaukee is home against the Chicago Cubs as a -192 money line favorite with a total of 7. The Brewers’ Brandon Woodruff pitches against the Cubs’ Zach Davies. St. Louis hosts Arizona at 8:15 PM ET as a -149 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Cardinals’ Carlos Martinez pitches against the Diamondbacks’ Caleb Smith. Colorado plays at home against Pittsburgh at 8:40 PM ET as a -165 money line favorite with a total of 11. German Marquez of the Rockies pitches against the Pirates’ Chase De Jong. Oakland is at home against Texas at 9:40 PM ET as a -175 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The A’s send out James Kaprielian to pitch against the Rangers’ Mike Foltynewicz. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the San Francisco on ESPN at 10:10 PM ET as a -143 money line favorite with a total of 7. Walker Buehler pitches for the Dodgers against the Giants’ Kevin Gausman. The WNBA has two games on the slate. New York visits Atlanta on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. Connecticut travels to Washington for a 7 PM ET tip-off. The Round of 16 in the Euro 2020 concludes on Tuesday with two matches on ESPN. England plays Germany at noon ET at Wembley Stadium in London in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.25. Sweden goes against Ukraine at 3 PM ET at Hampden Park in Glasgow, Scotland, as a -0.25 goal line favorite with a total of 2.

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NHL Stanley Cup Finals: Montreal Canadiens vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Game 1 Preview and Odds

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jun 28, 2021

The Stanley Cup finals begin on Monday, with the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Montreal Canadiens on the NBC Sports Network at 8:08 PM ET. Tampa Bay reached the finals with their 1-0 victory against the New York Islanders in Game 7 of that semifinal series on Friday. Yanni Gourde scored the lone goal in the game shorthanded at the 1:49 minute mark of the second period. The Lightning’s Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped all 18 of the shots he faced. Tampa Bay placed 31 shots on Islanders’ goaltender Semyon Varlamov. The Lightning aspires to become the eighth team in NHL history to win back-to-back Stanley Cup championships. Tampa Bay won their first Stanley Cup in the 2003-04 season before winning the title again last season. The Pittsburgh Penguins are the most recent franchise to repeat as champions in 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons. Tampa Bay opened their postseason campaign by defeating the Florida Panthers in six games. They followed that by beating the Carolina Hurricanes in five games in the East Division finals. Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 12-6 record in the playoffs, with a 1.99 goals-against-average, a .936 save percentage, and four shutouts. He had a 31-10-1 record in the regular season with a 2.21 goals-against-average and a .925 save percentage. He is one of three Vezina Trophy finalists awarded to the top goaltender of the season. He previously won that award in 2019.Brayden Point leads the league with 14 goals in the postseason. His nine-game playoff streak with at least one point ended in Game 7 on Friday. Nikita Kucherov leads the NHL with 27 points in the playoffs. He has scored five goals and added 22 assists. He has registered 17 of his points on the power play. Alex Killorn and Steven Stamkos tie for third on the team with 17 points. Montreal defeated the Vegas Golden Knights in six games to reach the Stanley Cup finals with a 3-2 victory in overtime last Thursday. Shea Weber opened the scoring with a power-play goal at the 14:06 minute mark of the first period. The Knights evened the score less than a minute later with Reilly Smith’s goal. Cole Caufield gave the Canadiens the lead again with his gaol at 9:36 of the second period. Alex Martinez evened the score for Vegas early in the third period. Arturri Lehkonen scored the game-winner for Montreal just 99 seconds into overtime. Carey Price stopped 37 of the 39 shots he faced in the win. The 2015 Vezina Trophy winner has a 12-5 record in the playoffs this season, with a 2.02 goals-against-average and a .934 save percentage. In the last two postseasons, Price has a 17-10 record, a 1.93 goals-against-average, a .934 save percentage, and three shutouts. The Canadiens opened their postseason run by defeating the heavily-favored Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games. Montreal then swept Winnipeg in four games in the North Division finals before upsetting Vegas in six games. The Canadiens have won 11 of their last 13 games since trailing the Maple Leafs, 3-1, in that first-round series. They have won the Stanley Cup championship 22 times. They last won the Cup in 1993 in their most recent appearance in the finals.Tyler Toffoli leads the team with 14 points coming from five goals and nine assists. Nick Suzuki has 13 points from five goals and eight assists. His five points last round tied for the most on the team. Cole Caufield led Montreal with four goals in the Vegas series. His nine points in the playoffs tie with Corey Perry for the third-most on the team. The Canadiens have not allowed a power-play goal in 13 straight games. They have successfully thwarted the last 30 power plays from their opponents in this postseason. Tampa Bay has scored 20 power plays in the playoffs, a 37.7% success rate on their 53 opportunities with the man advantage. Montreal will be without Joel Armia indefinitely after he entered the COVID quarantine protocol. It is unclear how long he will be out. He did not travel with the team to Florida. The Canadiens expect head coach Dominique Ducharme back for Game 3 when he completes the COVID quarantine protocol. Assistant head coach Luke Richardson will retain head coaching bench duties until then. The team has a 3-1 record under Richardson since Ducharme began quarantine. Tomas Tatar and Jake Evans remain questionable with the injuries that kept them out last round. Tampa Bay is healthy. Kucherov is probable after returning to the ice to play 16:29 minutes on Game 7 on Friday after being knocked out early in the first period in the sixth game of the Islanders series. BetAnySports lists the Lightning as a -190 money line favorite for Game 1, with the total set at 5.

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Euro 2020 Preview - Knockout Stage - 06/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jun 28, 2021

The knockout stage of the Euro 2020 continues on Monday with two matches in the Round of 16.Spain plays Croatia at noon ET on ESPN at the National Arena in Bucharest, Romania. La Furia Roja needed a result last Wednesday, and they responded with a resounding 5-0 win against Slovakia to finish in second place in Group E with five points. Two of those scores came from own-goals from the Slovakians. Spain opened their tournament with a 0-0 draw with Sweden. They then settled for a 1-1 draw with Poland. The Red Fury has scored six times in this event while conceding just once. The three-time Euro champions have lost in the Round of 16 in their last two major international tournaments in the 2018 World Cup and the 2016 Euro. Croatia needed the three points from a victory against Scotland last Tuesday, and they defeated the Scots, 3-1, to finish in second place in Group D with four points. The Chequered Ones opened their tournament with a 1-0 loss to England. They then earned a 1-1 draw with a Czech Republic side that upset the Netherlands yesterday to advance to the quarterfinals. The Croatians have scored four times while conceding three goals. Real Madrid’s Luka Modric and Inter Milan’s Ivan Perisic lead this team after playing pivotal roles in their run to the World Cup finals in 2018, where they lost to France. Perisic leads the team with two goals. However, he is out for this match after testing positive for COVID. BetOnline lists Spain as a -1 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.25.France plays Switzerland on ESPN at 3 PM ET at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, Denmark. The reigning World Cup champions won Group F after earning a point from their 1-1 draw with Portugal last Wednesday. France opened their campaign in the “group of death” by defeating Germany, 1-0. They settled for a 1-1 draw with Hungary. Les Bleus scored four times while allowing three goals. Only two of their goals came from open play. Kylian Mbappe leads the French with two goals, with one coming from a penalty kick. Their lone goal against Germany came from an own goal from Mats Hummels. France finished in second place to Portugal in the 2016 Euro.Switzerland needed the three points from a victory against Turkey last Sunday, and La Nati responded with a 3-1 win against Turkey. The Swiss National Team opened with a 1-1 draw against Wales. They then lost to Italy, 3-0. They finished in third place in Group A but earned one of the four third-place qualifying spots. National Swiss scored four times while giving up five goals. Xherdan Shaqiri leads the team with two goals. Switzerland lost in the Round of 16 in the 2016 Euro. They made the semifinals in the inaugural UEFA Nations League in 2019.BetOnline lists France as a -0.75 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB, Euro 2020 and Copa America Previews and Odds - 06/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jun 28, 2021

The Monday sports card features games in the NBA, NHL, MLB, Euro 2020, and the Copa America.The NBA playoffs continue with Game 5 in the Western Conference finals on ESPN. Phoenix hosts the Los Angeles Clippers after taking a 3-1 series lead with an 84-80 victory as a 1-point road favorite on Saturday. The Suns have won ten of their last eleven games. Phoenix is a 5.5-point favorite, with the total set at 214.5 (all odds from BetOnline). Tip-off is at 9:05 PM ET.The finals of the NHL playoffs begin with Tampa Bay hosting Montreal on the NBC Sports Network at 8:08 PM ET. The Lighting defeated the New York Islanders by a 1-0 score on Friday two take that series, 4-3. The Canadiens defeated Vegas in six games with their 3-2 victory in overtime on Thursday. Tampa Bay is a -197 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.Eleven games are on the MLB docket. Colorado hosts Pittsburgh at 5:10 PM ET as a -118 money line favorite with a total of 11. Kyle Freeland pitches for the Rockies against the Pirates’ Tyler Anderson. Cincinnati plays at home against Philadelphia at 6:40 PM ET as a -142 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Wade Miley pitches for the Reds against the Phillies’ Spencer Howard. The New York Mets visit Washington at 7:05 PM ET. Jerad Eickhoff pitches for the Mets, and the Nationals are undecided on their starting pitcher. The New York Yankees play at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -152 money line favorite with a total of 10. Michael King pitches for the Yankees against the Angels’ Dylan Bundy. Boston hosts Kansas City at 7:10 PM ET as a -142 money line favorite with an over/under of 10.5. Garrett Richards pitches for the Red Sox against the Royals’ Danny Duffy. Cleveland is at home against Detroit as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Indians send out Eli Morgan to face the Tigers’ Matt Manning. Milwaukee plays at home against the Chicago Cubs at 8:10 PM ET as a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Freddy Peralta pitches for the Brewers against the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks. Houston is at home against Baltimore as a -290 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Astros Zack Greinke pitches against the Orioles’ Thomas Eshelman. The Chicago White Sox host Minnesota as a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Lucas Giolito pitches for the White Sox against the Twins’ Kenta Maeda. St. Louis plays at home against Arizona at 8:15 PM ET as a -160 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Cardinals send out Wade LeBlanc against Jake Faria of the Diamondbacks. The Los Angeles Dodgers host San Francisco at 10:10 PM ET as a -178 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Trevor Bauer of the Dodgers faces Anthony DeSclafani of the Giants. The knockout stage of the Euro 2020 continues with two matches in the Round of 16 on ESPN. Spain plays Croatia at noon ET at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, Denmark. The Spaniards are a -0.75 goal line favorite with a total of 2.25. France plays Switzerland at 3 PM ET at National Arena in Bucharest, Romania. Les Bleus are a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25.The group stage of the Copa America concludes with two matches in Group A at 8 PM ET. Argentina plays Bolivia on FS1 at the Arena Pantanal in Cuiaba, Brazil. The Argentinians are a -2.25 goal line favorite with a total of 3. Uruguay faces Paraguay on FS2 at the Olympic Stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The Uruguayans are a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, MLB, WNBA, Euro 2020 and Copa America Previews and Odds - 06/27/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jun 27, 2021

The Sunday sports card features games in the NBA, MLB, WNBA, Euro 2020, and the Copa America.The NBA playoffs continue with Game 3 in the Eastern Conference finals on TNT. Milwaukee travels to Atlanta after evening this series at 1-1 with their 125-91 victory as an 8-point favorite. The Hawks had won their last two games before that setback. The Bucks are a 4-point road favorite with the total set at 224 (all odds from BetOnline). Tip-off is at 8:35 PM ET.Fifteen games are on the MLB docket. Toronto hosts Baltimore at 1:07 PM ET as a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 11. The Blue Jays send out Ross Stripling to face the Orioles’ Jorge Lopez. Six games start at 1:10 PM ET. The New York Yankees visit Boston on TBS as a -155 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Gerrit Cole pitches for the Yankees against the Red Sox’s Eduardo Rodriguez. Washington plays at Miami as a -139 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Max Scherzer of the Nationals’ faces the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara. Tampa Bay is at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -143 money line favorite with a total of 8. Ryan Yarbrough pitches for the Rays against the Angels’ Pablo Sandoval. Atlanta travels to Cincinnati with Kyle Muller pitching against Tyler Mahle. Philadelphia plays at New York against the Mets, with the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler going against Max Stroman. Houston plays at Detroit as a -187 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Jake Odorizzi pitches for the Astros against the Tigers’ Takir Skubal. Milwaukee hosts Colorado at 2:15 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Brewers’ Eric Lauer faces the Rockies’ Chi Chi Gonzalez. Cleveland plays at Minnesota with the Indians’ Sam Hentges pitching against the Twins’ J.A. Happ. St. Louis is at home against Pittsburgh at 2:15 PM ET as a -143 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Johan Oviedo pitches for the Cardinals against the Pirates Max Kranick. Kansas visits Texas at 2:35 PM ET as a -107 money line road favorite with a total of 9. The Royals’ Brad Singer pitches against the Rangers’ Jordan Lyles. San Francisco plays at home against Oakland at 4:05 PM ET as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Giants send out Sam Long to face Cole Irvin of the A’s. San Diego hosts Arizona at 4:10 PM ET as a -275 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Yu Darvish pitches for the Padres against the Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen. Seattle plays at Chicago against the White Sox at 4:45 PM ET. Dallas Keuchel pitches for the White Sox, and the Mariners’ pitcher is undecided. The Los Angeles Dodgers hosts the Chicago Cubs on ESPN at 7:08 PM ET as a -188 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Dodgers’ send out Clayton Kershaw to pitch against the Cubs’ Adbert Alzolay. Three games are on the WNBA slate. Chicago travels to Connecticut at 2 PM ET. Seattle visits Las Vegas on ESPN at 4 PM ET. Los Angeles plays at Phoenix at 6 PM ET. The knockout stage of the Euro 2020 continues with two matches in the Round of 16. The Netherlands plays the Czech Republic on ESPN at noon ET at the Ferenc Puskas Stadium in Budapest, Hungary. The Dutch are a -0.75 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5.Belgium plays Portugal on ABC at 3 PM ET at the Estadio de La Cartuja in Seville, Spain. The Red Devils are a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25. The knockout stage of Copa America begins with two quarterfinals matches at 5 PM ET. Brazil plays Ecuador on Fox at the Estadio Olympic Pedro Ludovico in Goiania, Brazil. The Brazilians are a -1.25 goal line favorite with a total of 2.75. Peru plays Venezuela on FS2 at the Mane Garrincha Stadium in Brasilia, Brazil. The Peruvians are a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NBA, WNBA and Euro 2020 Previews and Odds - 06/26/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jun 26, 2021

The Saturday sports card features games in the NBA, MLB, WNBA, and the Euro 2020.The NBA playoffs continue with Game 4 in the Western Conference finals on ESPN. The Los Angeles Clippers won Game 3, 106-92, as a 1-point underdog at the Staples Center on Thursday. Phoenix leads the series by a 2-1 margin. The Suns are a 1-point road favorite with the total set at 218.5 (all odds from BetOnline). Tip-off is at 9:05 PM ET.Sixteen games are on the MLB docket. Houston visits Detroit at 1:10 PM ET in the first game of their seven-inning doubleheader. Minnesota hosts Cleveland at 2:10 PM ET as a -149 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Twins’ Kenta Maeda faces the Indians’ Sam Hentges. The Chicago White Sox play at home against Seattle as a -182 money line favorite with a total of 8. Lance Lynn pitches for the White Sox against the Mariners’ Logan Gilbert. St. Louis is at home against Pittsburgh at 2:15 PM ET as a -146 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Cardinals’ Adam Wainwright pitches against the Pirates’ J.T. Brubaker. Toronto hosts Baltimore at 3:07 PM ET as a -275 money line favorite with a total of 10. Hyun Jin Ryu of the Blue Jays squares off against the Orioles’ Keegan Akin. Texas plays at home against Kansas City on FS1 at 4:05 PM ET. The Rangers send out Kyle Gibson, and the Royals have yet to name their starting pitcher. Five games take place at 4:10 PM ET. Washington travels to Miami as a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Nationals’ Patrick Corbin faces the Marlins’ Zach Thompson. Tampa Bay plays at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -159 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Shane McClanahan of the Rays goes against Alex Cobb of the Angels. Milwaukee is at home against Colorado as a -197 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Adrian Houser pitches for the Brewers against the Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela. The New York Mets are at home against Philadelphia as a -255 money line favorite with a total of 6. Jacob DeGrom pitches for the Mets against Zach Eflin for the Phillies. Atlanta visits Cincinnati with Ian Anderson of the Braves pitches against the Reds’ Luis Castillo. Houston plays Detroit in the second game of their doubleheader at 6:10 PM ET. Fox has two games for its national broadcast at 7:15 PM ET. Boston hosts the New York Yankees as a -114 money line favorite with an over/under of 10. Nathan Eovaldi of the Red Sox pitches against the Yankees’ Jordan Montgomery. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -190 money line favorite with a total of 9. Julio Urias pitches for the Dodgers against the Cubs’ Alec Mills. San Francisco is at home against Oakland at 10:05 PM ET as a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Giants send out Alex Wood against Frankie Montas of the A’s. San Diego hosts Arizona at 10:10 PM ET as a -275 money line favorite with a total of 8. San Diego hosts Arizona at 10:10 PM ET as a -275 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Dinelson Lamet pitches for the Padres against the Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly. Two games are on the WNBA slate. Washington visits Dallas on CBS at 1 PM ET. New York travels to Atlanta at 7 PM ET.The knockout stage of the Euro 2020 begins on Saturday with two matches. Denmark plays Wales at the Amsterdam Arena in Amsterdam on ESPN at noon ET. The Danes are a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2. Italy faces Austria at Wembley Stadium on ABC at 3 PM ET. The Italians are a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25.

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Euro 2020 Round of 16 Preview and Odds - 06/26/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jun 26, 2021

The knockout stage of the Euro 2020 begins on Saturday with two matches in the Round of 16.Denmark plays Wales on ESPN at noon ET at the Amsterdam Arena in Amsterdam. The Danes qualified for the knockout stage by defeating Russia, 4-1, on Monday to secure three points in the group stage. The Red and Whites needed the victory against the Bears to advance after losing their first two matches in Group B play. Denmark opened their Euro 2020 campaign with a 1-0 loss to Finland in a game obscured by Christian Eriksen’s medical emergency. The Danes then lost to one of the tournament favorites, Belgium, by a 2-1 score, although they had the lead in that game and generated superior underlying numbers. The Red and Whites have scored five games and conceded four goals. Their underlying metrics place them fourth in the tournament is expected goal differential. They play on without their best player in Eriksen, but Tottenham’s Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg has stepped into his role as the primary facilitator in the midfield. Wales comes off a 1-0 loss to an Italian side that rested many of their starting XI. The Dragons clinched their participation in the knockout stage in their previous match with a 2-0 victory against Turkey. Wales opened their Euro 2020 with a 1-1 draw with Switzerland. The Dragons scored three times in the group stage and gave up two goals. Their win against Turkey was against a side that lost all three of their matches. They did pick up a point against the Swiss National Team that advanced to the Round of 16. With Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey, the core remains from the group that made a surprise run to the semifinals in Euro 2016.BetOnline lists Denmark as a -0.5 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.Italy plays Austria on ABC at 3 PM ET at Wembley Stadium. The Italians have been one of the most impressive teams in the tournament by winning all three of their matches in the group stage. They opened this event with a 2-0 victory against Turkey. The Azzuri followed that up with a 3-0 victory against Switzerland. Manager Roberto Mancini’s side concluded the group stage with a 1-0 win against Wales last Sunday using many of his bench players in the match. The Azzuri scored seven times in the group stage without conceding a goal. Their keeper, Gianluigi Donnarumma of AC Milan, was only asked to make two saves along the way. Italy has played more than 1000 minutes in international play without giving up a goal. Austria only needed a draw in their final group stage match against Ukraine yet played on their front foot against Ukraine to earn a 1-0 victory and demonstrate no fear to secure a date with the Italians on Monday. Das Team opened their tournament with a 3-1 win against North Macedonia. They followed that up with a 2-0 loss to the Netherlands on their home soil in Amsterdam. The Austrians scored four times while conceding three goals in the group stage. Led by David Alba, a recent transfer to Real Madrid, and a trio of midfielders who star in the Bundesliga in Marcel Sabitzer, Konrad Laimer, and Xaver Schlager, Das Team was second in the group stage with a 38% success rate in forcing turnovers from their pressing tactics. BetOnline lists Italy as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25.

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2021 NBA Playoffs - An ATS Recap

by Al McMordie

Saturday, Jun 26, 2021

The 2021 NBA Playoffs have been unlike any other.  And not just because it featured a 'play-in' round at the start.  We've also had several key injuries along the way that have derailed (or may derail) the hopes of many of the top contenders.  Teams like the Los Angeles Lakers (Anthony Davis), Denver Nuggets (Jamal Murray), Utah Jazz (Mike Conley), Brooklyn Nets (Kyrie Irving; James Harden), and Los Angeles Clippers (Kawhi Leonard) all were greatly impacted.  The upshot is that it is the first time both #1 seeds didn't make the semi-finals since 1994 when the Atlanta Hawks and Seattle SuperSonics were knocked out early.Let's take a look at how the NBA Playoffs have gone -- from a point spread perspective.Our data goes through games of June 25, and does not include the 'play-in' games.Home teams:  37-35 ATS (Faves 29-22 ATS; Dogs 8-13 ATS)Away teams: 35-37 ATS (Faves 13-8 ATS; Dogs 22-29 ATS)Favorites:  42-30 ATS (Home 29-22 ATS; Away 13-8 ATS)Underdogs:  30-42 ATS (Home 8-13 ATS; Away 22-29 ATS)Overs:  36-35-1Unders: 35-36-1Series off Under in previous game:  15 Overs, 14 Unders, 1 PushSeries off Over in previous game:  14 Overs, 13 UndersTeams off playoff loss:  25-33 ATS (Faves 16-13 ATS; Dogs 9-20 ATS)Teams off back-to-back playoff losses:  12-13 ATS (Faves 5-7 ATS; Dogs 7-6 ATS)Teams off double-digit playoff losses:  8-21 ATS (Home 6-16 ATS; Away 2-5 ATS; Faves 2-8 ATS; Dogs 6-13 ATS)Teams off point spread failures by 10+ points:  14-15 ATS (Home 9-11 ATS; Away 5-4 ATS; Faves 9-8 ATS; Dogs 5-7 ATS)#1 Seeds:  12-11 ATS (Home 7-6 ATS; Away 5-5 ATS; Faves 12-9 ATS; Dogs 0-2 ATS)#2 Seeds: 17-8 ATS (Home 11-3 ATS; Away 6-5 ATS; Faves 11-5 ATS; Dogs 6-3 ATS)#3 Seeds: 11-12 ATS (Home 6-6 ATS; Away 5-6 ATS; Faves 7-7 ATS; Dogs 4-5 ATS)#4 Seeds: 11-10 ATS (Home 6-5 ATS; Away 5-5 ATS; Faves 7-5 ATS; Dogs 4-5 ATS)#5 Seeds: 12-9 ATS (Home 3-5 ATS; Away 9-4 ATS; Faves 2-0 ATS; Dogs 10-9 ATS)#6 Seeds: 3-7 ATS (Home 1-4 ATS; Away 2-3 ATS; Faves 1-2 ATS; Dogs 2-5 ATS)#7 Seeds: 3-8 ATS (Home 2-3 ATS; Away 1-5 ATS; Faves 2-2 ATS; Dogs 1-6 ATS)#8 Seeds:  3-7 ATS (Home 1-3 ATS; Away 2-4 ATS; Faves 0-0 ATS; Dogs 3-7 ATS)Interestingly, teams off blowout SU/ATS playoff losses have NOT done well this season.  Consider that NBA teams off SU/ATS losses by seven or more points have gone 11-28 ATS.  Meanwhile, teams off narrow SU/ATS playoff losses by six or less points have gone 13-2 ATS.Another trend to watch is how teams do off back-to-back upset playoff wins.  In this year's playoffs, teams that pulled off consecutive upsets have gone 0-5 ATS.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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CFL 2021: East Division Season Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Friday, Jun 25, 2021

CFL 2021 Season Preview – East DivisionHamilton - Likely the team to beat in the East as this team appears to be built very well for success. Of course what will grab the most attention is that the Tiger-Cats passing attack made some headlines based on what transpired in the off-season. This is a team with a lot of dangerous weapons now available for aerial assaults on opponents. However, defense and also special teams are certainly other less glamorous areas that often are key to winning football games and this is where the Tiger-Cats appear particularly strong. Their return game could be lethal in special teams. As for the defense, they were fantastic in 2019 up until the Grey Cup and allowed a league low 19 points per game! Between retirement and free agency, Hamilton lost some key pieces from that defense but this team is still very well-coached on that side of the ball, has great systems in place, and should quickly form another formidable unit in 2021. Montreal – The 2019 season was the Alouettes first post-season appearance in 5 years and we could see them fall back again this season as it was a bit of an unlikely run for them in 2019. In terms of special teams play the Als got a strong return came going late in the season thanks to Mario Alford and he is back and a big threat every time he touches the ball. But the East Division appears very improved this season and I don’t see the Alouettes again having winning percentages in line with the 5-3 / 63% they produced in 2019 divisional games. In terms of offense and defense coming into this season this team should be respectable on each side of the ball but nothing fantastic. Keep in mind, this was the only team to make the playoffs in 2019 that allowed more points than they scored on the season! Could see some regression for the Alouettes in 2021 especially with improvements expected for Toronto and Ottawa plus Hamilton is looking strong again. Ottawa - Off a horrible 2019 season (3-15) but should improve this season. This is especially true if they get better QB play which is certainly possible with QB Matt Nichols now on board. Hamilton is the favorite in this division and Toronto made some solid offseason additions that have caught attention. Montreal also was in the post-season in 2019. So, after the missed season due to covid in 2020, where will the Redblacks end up in the East out of the 4 teams? It depends of course. They will be improved and should have a respectable defense thanks to new defensive coordinator Mike Benevides and also look to be strong in terms of special teams units. However, will Ottawa get strong enough play on offense to put enough points on the board to win games? That could depend on how well Nichols meshes with the offense under head coach Paul LaPolice. Perhaps the shortened 14-game season will also help the Redblacks hang around in this division but ultimately a 3rd place finish would be a good goal for this team. Toronto - New coaching staff, a lot of new players too which was needed after a 4-14 season. Bethel-Thompson and Arbuckle combine to give the Argonauts multiple options at QB.  Dinwiddie is the new head coach and he is a former QB who had great success as a QB coach in Calgary. That great QB play for the Stampeders helped lead the way to 3 Grey Cup appearances in his 4 seasons as the QB coach there. Big difference with now being the head coach plus having an overhauled roster. But do not be surprised if the Argos show major improvement this season after coming off back to back 4-18 seasons!  This is largely a new roster in Toronto and looks very talented and they have a new coaching staff so there could be some growing pains but, overall, this entire franchise feels rejuvenated heading into the new season. 

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Euro Cup: Weekend Preview

by Ben Burns

Friday, Jun 25, 2021

by Ben BurnsThe group stage of Euro 2020 (2021) provided plenty of excitement. Now, the real fun begins. Sixteen teams remain. By Tuesday afternoon, half of those will be gone. That's right. Eight matches, two per day, from Saturday through Tuesday. Each of them is of the "Win Or Go Home" variety. Let's take a look at this weekend's matches. SaturdayDenmark/WalesThe first game of the knockout stage features Denmark taking on Wales. The Danes saw their leader collapse on the field of their first match. Naturally, that was scary and emotional for them. Subsequently, they were upset by Finland. That left them with a pretty big hole to dig out of but they managed to do so. No team in Group A could compete with Italy. However, Wales did well to finish second. The Welsh team tied Switzerland with four points but edged out the Swiss in goal differential. Current odds: Denmark -115. Wales +431. Draw: +233Austria/ItalyThe Italians returned to the International stage with a bang. In going 3-0, they outscored opposing teams by a 7-0 margin. Austria couldn't contend with the Netherlands but managed wins against North Macedonia and Ukraine. This is unfamiliar territory for the Austrians and they haven't beaten the Italians in any of the last 13 meetings. Italy won 10 of those, the teams drawing three times. Making matters worse for Austria, Italy is unbeaten in 30 straight games, a run of 25 wins and five draws. Current Odds: Italy -205. Austria: +737. Draw: +328 SundayCzech Republic/Netherlands Always exciting, the Dutch won all three of their matches in the group stage. They come in full of confidence. The Czechs aren't likely to go down easily though. They earned a 2-0 win and a 1-1 draw, while suffering a narrow 1-0 loss to England. Ronaldo has five goals to lead all scorers in the tournament. Five players are tied with three goals. Holland's Georginio Wijnaldum and Patrik Schick from the Czech Republic are among them. Therefore, it's not that surprising that this is projected to be the highest-scoring game of the weekend. The three others mostly have O/U lines of two or 2 1/4. However, this one has an O/U line of 2.5. Current Odds: Netherlands -145. Czech Rep: +451. Draw +297Belgium/PortugalThis one figures to be the most anticipated match of the weekend. Belgium is the #1 ranked team in the world. Portugal, however, is the defending champion. As mentioned, Ronaldo has already scored five goals. Belgium has a world-class sniper of its own though. Lakaku is one of the five players tied with three goals. Both teams scored seven goals overall. However, while Belgium conceded only one, Portugal gave up six. Of course, that had a lot to do with the fact that the Portugese had to play in the "Group Of Death." Current Odds: Belgium +151. Portugal +222. Draw +220. 

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