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Euro 2020 Quarterfinals Preview - 07/02/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jul 02, 2021

Friday Euro 2020: Quarterfinals PreviewThe knockout stage of the Euro 2020 continues on Friday, with the first two matches in the quarterfinals.Spain plays Switzerland on ESPN at noon ET at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, Russia.La Furia Roja outlasted Croatia, 5-3, in a wild Round of 16 match on Monday. Spain gave the Chequered Ones the lead 20 minutes into the game on an own goal. The Red Fury responded by scoring three straight goals, with Manchester City’s Ferran Torres giving them a 3-1 lead in the 76th minute in the second half. But Croatia scored twice with five minutes left in regulation time and two minutes into extended time to force the extra 30 minutes of action. Spain scored twice in the first fifteen-minute period to secure the victory.Spain opened their tournament with a 0-0 draw against Sweden in the group stage. They then settled for a 1-1 draw with Poland. La Furia Roja needed a result in their final group stage match, and they responded with a resounding 5-0 win against Slovakia to finish in second place in Group E with five points. Two of those scores came from own-goals from the Slovakians.The Red Fury has scored 11 times in this event while conceding just four times. They have scored ten goals in their last two matches. The three-time Euro champions have lost in the Round of 16 in their two most recent major international tournaments in the 2018 World Cup and the 2016 Euro. Switzerland pulled off the upset of the tournament by defeating France, 5-4, in penalty kicks to resolve their 3-3 score after extra time in their Round of 16 match on Monday. National Swiss scored first from Haris Seferovic’s goal 15 minutes into the contest. Trailing 3-1 after Les Bleus scored in the 75th minute, the Swiss scored two goals in the final nine minutes of regulation to force the extra period against the reigning 2018 World Cup champions. Both teams kept scoring in the penalty kick shootout before Paris-Saint Germa’s Kylian Mbappe missed his shot to hand Switzerland the victory and the right to advance to the quarterfinals. The Swiss National Team opened with a 1-1 draw against Wales. They then lost to Italy, 3-0. Switzerland needed the three points from a victory against Turkey last Sunday, and La Nati responded with a 3-1 win. They finished in third place in Group A but earned one of the four third-place qualifying spots. National Swiss has scored seven times while giving up eight goals. Seferovic’s brace against the French gave him three goals in his last two matches. Switzerland lost in the Round of 16 in the 2016 Euro. They made the semifinals in the inaugural UEFA Nations League in 2019.BetOnline lists Spain as a -0.75 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.5.Italy plays Belgium on ESPN at 3 PM ET at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany. Italy advanced to the quarterfinals with their 2-1 victory against Austria last Saturday. The match was scoreless after regulation time before the Azzurri scored twice in the first 15 minutes of the extra period. The Austrians pulled within one goal at the 114th mark but could not force a penalty kick shootout with a second goal. Austria’s score did end Italy’s 11-game streak of clean sheets that had lasted over 1000 minutes in international play. The Italians have been one of the most impressive teams in the tournament by winning all three of their matches in the group stage. They opened this event with a 2-0 victory against Turkey. The Azzurri followed that up with a 3-0 victory against Switzerland. Manager Roberto Mancini’s side concluded the group stage with a 1-0 win against Wales last Sunday using many of his bench players in the match. Italy has scored nine times in their four games.Belgium eked by Portugal, 1-0, to advance to the quarterfinals on Sunday. Thorgan Hazard scored in the 42nd minute of the first half in the only goal in the match. Injuries played a role in the second half, with Kevin De Bruyne leaving the pitch early in the second half before Eden Hazard exited the game late in the second half with a hamstring injury. Both players are doubts against Italy. The Red Devils are the number one ranked team by FIFA and the second-ranked team in the ELO ratings. They won all three of their group stage matches. Manager Roberto Martinez’s group opened with a 3-0 victory against Russia before beating Denmark, 2-1. They defeated Finland, 2-0, in their final group stage match. Belgium has scored seven times in this event while allowing just one goal. Inter Milan’s Romelu Lukaku leads the team with three goals. BetOnline lists Italy as a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2. The winners of these two matches advance to play in the semifinals on ESPN on Tuesday at 3 PM ET.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NHL, WNBA, Copa America and Euro 2020 Previews and Odds - 07/02/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jul 02, 2021

The Friday sports card features games in the NHL, MLB, WNBA, Euro 2020, and the Copa America.The NHL playoffs continue with Game 3 in the Stanley Cup finals on NBC. Tampa Bay took a 2-0 lead in this series with their 3-1 home victory against Montreal on Wednesday. The Lightning have won three in a row and six of their last eight games. The Canadiens have lost three of five. Tampa Bay is a -131 money line road favorite with the total set at 5 (all odds from BetOnline). Fifteen games are on the MLB docket. Philadelphia hosts San Diego at 6:05 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Phillies send out Zack Wheeler to pitch against the Padres’ Chris Paddack. Milwaukee visits Pittsburgh at 7:05 PM ET as a -124 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Adrian Houser pitches for the Brewers against the Pirates’ J.T. Brubaker. Washington plays at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers as a -110 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Nationals’ Max Scherzer pitches against the Dodgers’ Julio Urias. The New York Yankees are at home against the New York Mets as a -134 money line favorite with a total of 9. Jordan Montgomery pitches for the Yankees against Taijuan Walker of the Mets. Toronto is at home against Tampa Bay at 7:07 PM ET. Alek Manoah goes for the Blue Jays against the Rays’ Luis Pitino, who got called up from Triple-A to pitch in this game. Houston travels to Cleveland at 7:10 PM ET as a -171 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Astros pitch Lance McCullers against Sam Hentges of the Indians. Cincinnati hosts the Chicago Cubs as a -159 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. Sonny Gray pitches for the Reds against the Cubs’ Alec Mills. The Chicago White Sox play at Detroit as a -147 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The White Sox send out Lance Lynn to pitch against Casey Mize. Miami visits Atlanta at 7:20 PM ET. Pablo Lopez pitches for the Marlins against Drew Smyly of the Braves. St. Louis plays at Colorado at 8:10 PM ET in a pick ‘em match up with both teams priced at -105 and the total at 12. The Cardinals pitch Johan Oviedo against the Rockies’ Chi Chi Gonzalez. Kansas City hosts Minnesota as a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 10. Brad Singer pitches for the Royals against J.A. Happ of the Twins. The Los Angeles Angels host Baltimore at 9:38 PM ET as a -162 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Angels pitch Griffin Canning against the Orioles’ Keegan Akin. Boston travels to Oakland at 9:40 PM ET as a -106 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Eduardo Rodriguez pitches for the Red Sox against Frankie Montas of the A’s. San Francisco visits Arizona as a -145 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Giants pitch Alex Wood against Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks. Texas plays at Seattle at 10:10 PM ET as a -107 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Kyle Gibson pitches for the Ranges against Logan Gilbert of the Mariners.Three games are on the WNBA slate. Chicago visits Dallas on the CBS Sports Network at 8 PM ET as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 165.5. Las Vegas plays at Los Angeles in the second game of the CBS Sports Network doubleheader at 10 PM ET as a 14-point road favorite with an over/under of 167. Seattle hosts Atlanta as a 14-point favorite with a total of 165.5. The knockout stage of the Euro 2020 continues on Friday, with the first two matches in the quarterfinals. Spain plays Switzerland on ESPN at noon ET at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, Russia. La Furia Roja is a -0.75 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5.Italy plays Belgium on ESPN at 3 PM ET at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany. The Azzurri are -0.25 goal line favorites with the total at 2. The quarterfinals of Copa America begin on Friday with two matches on FS1. Paraguay plays Peru at 5 PM ET at the Estadio Olympic Pedro Ludovico in Goiania, Brazil. This is a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.Brazil plays Chile at 8 PM ET at the Olympic Stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The Brazilians are a -1.25 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NBA, and WNBA Previews and Odds - 07/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Jul 01, 2021

The Thursday sports card features games in the NBA, MLB, and WNBA.The NBA playoffs continue with Game 5 in the Eastern Conference finals on TNT. Atlanta evened this series at 2-2 with their 110-88 upset win at home against Milwaukee as a 5.5-point underdog on Tuesday. The Hawks had lost the previous two games in this series after winning Game 1. The Bucks are 2-point favorites, with the total set at 215 (all odds from BetOnline). Tip-off is at 8:35 PM ET.Thirteen games are on the MLB docket. The New York Yankees host the Los Angeles Angels at 1:05 PM ET as a -168 money line favorite with an over/under of 10. Jordan Montgomery pitches for the Yankees against the Angels’ Griffin Canning. Toronto plays at home against Seattle at 1:07 PM ET as a -185 money line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Blue Jays send out Hyun Jin Ryu against the Mariners’ Yusei Kikuchi. Boston is at home against Kansas City at 1:10 PM ET. Nathan Eovaldi pitches for the Red Sox, and the Royals have yet to name their starting pitcher. The Chicago White Sox are at home against Minnesota at 2:10 PM ET as a -138 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Oakland plays at home against Texas at 3:37 PM ET as a -172 money line favorite with a total of 8. The A’s Sean Manaea goes against Dane Dunning of the Rangers. Philadelphia hosts Miami at 6:05 PM ET as a -128 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Zach Eflin pitches for the Phillies against the Marlins’ Pablo Lopez. The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to Washington at 7:05 PM ET as a -133 money line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The Dodgers pitch Tony Gonsolin against the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin. Milwaukee visits Pittsburgh as a -240 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Corbin Burnes pitches for the Brewers against the Pirates’ Wil Crowe. Cincinnati is at home against San Diego at 7:10 PM ET as a -106 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Reds pitch Luis Castillo against Ryan Weathers of the Padres. Houston plays at Cleveland as a -178 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Framber Valdez pitches for the Astros against the Indians’ Jean Carlos Mejia. The New York Mets travel to Atlanta at 7:20 PM ET as a -161 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Jacob DeGrom pitches for the Mets against Ian Anderson of the Braves. St. Louis visits Colorado at 8:40 PM ET as a -127 money line road favorite with an over/under of 11.5. Adam Wainwright pitches for the Cardinals against Antonio Senzatela of the Rockies. San Francisco plays at Arizona on ESPN at 9:40 PM ET. Johnny Cueto pitches for the Giants against Merrill Kelly of the Diamondbacks. San Francisco is a -142 money line road favorite with a total of 9.One game is on the WNBA slate. Connecticut plays at Indiana at 7 PM ET.

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The Fundamental Flaw in Regular Season NHL Analytics When Applied to the Postseason.

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, Jun 30, 2021

The Colorado Avalanche were laptop darlings who put up the best five-on-five regular season analytics since that advanced data started being tracked closely in 2007-08. Despite being significant favorites to win the West Division Finals, they were upset by the Vegas Golden Knights in six games. Vegas was then upset in the Stanley Cup Semifinals against a Montreal Canadiens team that many mathematical projections considered the worst team in the playoffs. The Golden Knights were -5000 money line favorites to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals. The New York Islanders overperformed relative to the projections from the analytics’ models for the third straight season under head coach Barry Trotz by taking the Tampa Bay Lightning to seven games in their Stanley Cup Semifinals series. What gives? Are these outlier results? Or is there a fundamental flaw in the assumptions of the mathematical projections used to make predictions in the Stanley Cup playoffs? I think that is the case.Frankly, most of the methods I use to handicap the NHL in the regular season I throw out when handicapping in the playoffs. The goals and dynamic of the regular season seem too different than the competitive experience of the Stanley Cup playoffs. This is not just my observation from handicapping the NHL for 25 years — this is what NHL players and coaches say. The regular season is a grind with teams playing three or four times a week. Often the zeal from the players is on scoring goals and padding statistics since stats help with new contracts. Seeding for the playoffs is not nearly the priority that it is in other sports since home-ice advantage is less of a factor. The coaching edge in making the final shift change at home is important, but the roar of the crowd has less impact on the game, generally, because the game is so fast. Just getting into the playoffs healthy and rested is more important than seizing a higher seed. The Los Angeles Kings won the Stanley Cup in 2012 despite being seeded eighth in the Western Conference. None of the top seeds in the four divisions this year advanced to the Semifinals. Once the playoffs start, the zeal shifts from scoring goals to stopping goals. Players are much more willing to sacrifice their bodies to block shots. Star players take longer shifts. Benches are shortened. And the nature of a seven-game series completely changes the game-to-game dynamic. Players and coaches get deeper into their planning and preparation in stopping their opponents. Speed advantages begin to get neutralized. In the battle between offensive technique and defensive tactics, the defense tends to get the upper hand. The higher stakes of the playoffs create a new sense of urgency not felt in the regular season. Game management mistakes are more often game-changing plays. Finally, the referees are more likely to swallow their whistles and let the action continue. I have seen many NHL analytics experts complain loudly about the lack of penalties in this postseason. They might as well complain about the weather. It has been that way for decades. Every team that has made the playoffs in the last 50 years has sob stories. Keep crying (and losing), or adapt. There is a long list of NHL teams that were dynamic offensive teams in the regular season who then folded in the postseason. Tampa Bay had this problem before adjusting their style of play and making some subtle changes to their roster after getting swept in the first round of the 2019 playoffs to a defensive-minded Columbus team. That Lightning team also needed to learn to be better game-managers. Colorado made some critical mistakes in their series with Vegas. Rather than making the high-risk pass in the third period that often netted an additional goal, the Avalanche need to learn to not risk the costly turnover that might give their opponents a breakaway advantage. Scoring more is not as valuable as not risking getting exposed. When Tampa Bay finally learned that lesson, they won the Stanley Cup last year — and they appear to be on the verge of repeating as champions.The analytics folks are in a pickle as to how to adapt. Their modus operandi depends on the predictability of their data. It is difficult for them to concede the limitations of their regular season numbers, even if that happens to be the case. By the time the sample sizes become actionable in the postseason, the playoffs are almost over. Handicappers (like me) that also incorporate qualitative analysis can still find success (never more effective than in the 2017 playoffs where we ended on a 20-3 sides run with Pittsburgh’s repeat as Stanley Cup champions). Teams with veteran players with playoff experience that play defensive-first physical hockey with counter-attacking offensive tactics and elite goal-tending fit a profile that tends to perform better in the playoffs. That description seems to apply to the Montreal Canadiens and New York Islanders this postseason. Perhaps the NHL analytics community would find fertile ground in identifying team profiles that have success in the playoffs — and then make appropriate comparisons to new playoff teams. This was the interesting approach that Jordan Brenner and Peter Keating endeavored in their seminal 2015 article on Giant Killers in ESPN The Magazine that profiled the different templates of teams that tend to pull upsets in college basketball’s March Madness.Best of luck — Frank.

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Starting Pitcher Observations from June

by Team Del Genio

Wednesday, Jun 30, 2021

Starting Pitcher Observations from JuneWe started with caution to the new Major League Baseball season amidst plenty of uncertainty in handicapping starting pitching. Most starting pitchers only had up to 12 or 13 regular season starts last year in the shortened season that starting late because of COVID. That presented a smaller sample size from which to project early season performance this year. The absence of fans continued to introduce an unusual dynamic that may have affected MLB pitchers differently. Major League Baseball threw another knuckleball into the mix with the changes they made to the baseball. As we observed last month in our article, “It’s the Year of the Pitcher. Does that Mean to Play More Unders?”: “The ball is slightly lighter after new production standards. The new ball is easier to throw but does not travel as far off the bat given the lighter mass.”MLB has since added a new wrinkle into the mix with their crackdown on foreign substances pitches uses to get a better grip on the baseball to improve spin rate. Yet amidst all these new factors to consider, some actionable data began to accumulate around the 1/3rd mark into the season. Here are some of the observations about starting pitchers that has helped our 23-3 MLB money line sides run through the end of the month.Shohei Ohtani may the story of the league with Most Valuable Year campaign with his spectacular contributions with his bat and his pitching arm, yet there are some cracks in the armor in his pitching profile. For our MLB Game of the Month report on the Yankees for Wednesday, June 30th, we made these comments on Ohtani:“Ohtani has been a surprise as to just how good he has been on the mound. The right-hander has a 3-1 record with a 2.58 era and a 1.18 whip in 11 starts. Yet it might be premature to begin pricing him as an elite starting pitcher. Command remains a challenge for Ohtani who is walking 12.5% of the batters he faces. In his last two starts on the road, he has walked six batters in 11 innings for a 4.9 bases-on-balls per nine innings average. In four starts on the road, Ohtani has a 3.91 era. Seven of his eleven starts have been at home, so this looks to be a good opportunity to fade him in this high-profile matchup where the pressure will be high.”The prospect of Ohtani pitching in fabled Yankee Stadium, not the literal “House that Ruth Built” but nearby to the baseball legend that Ohtani gets most compared to because he stars as both a hitter and a pitcher, may have put too much pressure on the young superstar. He walked the first three batters he faced in the first inning before allowing seven earned runs on four walks and two hits when he got pulled with two outs in the inning. Ohtani’s command remains the weakness in his pitching profile, and he may not be as effective when pitching away from Angels Stadium. Unfortunately, the Yankees’ bullpen let us down in that game by giving up seven runs in the top of the ninth inning to blow an 8-4 lead and lose the game. If he handicap the starting pitcher matchup accurately, we will win more than we lose even with the occasional back door loss from a bullpen blowup.Kenta Maeda had one of the most disappointing starts to the season before showing signs that he might have righted the ship this month. We were not sold, particularly with him pitching on the road against the White Sox on Tuesday, June 29th. In our report for our AL Central Game of the Month, we noted:“After a disastrous start to the season, he finally went on the disabled list last month to rest his right shoulder. He has been a shadow of the pitcher that went 6-1 last season with a 2.70 era and a 0.75 whip. His strikeouts are way down. After striking out 32.3% of the batters he faced last season, he is punching out 21.7% of batters this year. He is walking 6.5% of the batters he faces, up from 4.0% last season. His ground ball rate is down from 49.0% last year to 41.9% this year. Opposing hitters are connecting on more line drives which are up from 20.4% to 24.4% of the batted balls he is allowing into play. Maeda’s era is 5.40 in his 8 starts on the road, and his teams have won just three of their last sixteen games on the road when the oddsmakers install the over/under from 7 to 8.5.”Maeda did get out of the fifth inning in that game, giving up seven runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings. He walked five batters representing 18.5% of the batters he faced. He only struck out four batters, just 14.8% of the White Sox hitters he pitched against in a clip even lower than his declining strikeout average this season. Maeda will likely continue to be a starting pitcher we will target to play against in side and over plays. The news is not all bad, as we saw encouraging things from Adam Wainwright. We made these comments in our NL Central Game of the Month on the Cardinals versus the Pirates on Saturday, June 26th:  “They (Pittsburgh) face Adam Wainwright who has pitched better at home for most of his long career. The veteran right-hander is 5-5 with a 3.74 era and a 1.12 whip in 14 starts. When pitching at home, Wainwright has a 2.66 era and a 0.95 whip in nine starts. The 39-year-old started strong in April with a bump up in velocity. Yet his velocity dropped in May as he struggled in some starts. Wainwright has turned it around this month by not allowing more than three runs in any of his four starts while pitching at least six innings in each outing. He has a 2.67 era and an 0.89 whip in June.”Wainwright’s strong month continued as he allowed only one run in six innings work to register a 3-1 victory against the Pirates. He struck out eight batters and walked only one to continue his consistency when pitching at home at Busch Stadium. We will continue to look for opportunities where the veteran is undervalued, especially when pitching at home. Good luck - TDG.

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What Happened to the Vegas Golden Knights?

by Team Del Genio

Wednesday, Jun 30, 2021

After the Vegas Golden Knights upset the Colorado Avalanche in the West Division finals, it looked like the franchise was well on their way to make their second appearance in the Stanley Cup finals in the four years of their existence. Yet despite an easy 4-1 victory in Game 1 of the NHL semifinals against Montreal, they were exposed by the Canadiens in the next five games despite being a 5-1 favorite to win that series before it started. With three straight disappointments in the postseason after their inaugural season run to the finals, the Golden Knights are suddenly a franchise at the crossroads. What happened?Management took a big chance in trading with the very same Montreal Canadiens for Max Pacioretty before their second season. At the time, the move was designed to bring superstar talent into the organization that they could not acquire in the expansion draft. They later traded for Mark Stone at the trade deadline that gave them a top forward line of Pacioretty, Stone, and Paul Stastny, another offseason acquisition, that took the pressure off the William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault, and Reilly Smith line that was such a surprise from the expansion draft. But a key piece in that trade with the Canadiens was Nick Suzuki who Vegas drafted as the 13th pick in the first round in their first draft. Suzuki outperformed Pacioretty in that series with five points, tied for the most for Montreal in that series. With hindsight being 20/20, the Golden Knights are weak down the middle. The injury to Chandler Stephenson exposed this deficiency even more. When Vegas drafted Cody Glass sixth in the 2017 draft before selecting Suzuki seven picks later, management had, in theory, laid the foundation for how their team would look at center for the next decade. Instead, Glass has failed to develop yet, he was not on the postseason roster, and Suzuki starred for the team that defeated them in the playoffs. At 21-years-old, Suzuki is 11 years younger than Pacioretty. Besides holes at center, depth was a concern for the team all season. They were only able to dress 15 skaters in their final home game of the year against Colorado which determined home ice in the playoffs and the President’s Trophy. Over $12 million were invested in their goaltending duo of Robin Lehner and Marc-Andre Fleury. Having two top-notch goaltenders is a luxury that teams probably cannot afford when operating under a salary cap. But the adage in the NFL regarding the problems of having two worthy starting quarterbacks on a roster may apply to goaltenders in the NHL. Rumors were that the team tried to unload Fleury before the start of the season after they signed Lehner to a five-year, $25 million contract. After Fleury saved the team during the regular season with Lehner dealing with a host of injuries, he won the Vezina Trophy for the first time in his Hall of Fame career. That cache will likely lead to the team being able to get a better deal from him in the offseason. If it was not clear that the team committed to Lehner when they signed in the fall to that $25 million deal, when head coach Peter DeBoer chose him to start in Game 6 of their series with the Canadiens, the writing was written on the wall for all to see. Next season likely becomes a make-or-break year for DeBoer. He was hired immediately after management made the surprising move to fire Gerard Gallant midway through the 2020-21 season. Having taken the New Jersey Devils and the San Jose Sharks to the Stanley Cup finals, DeBoer’s ability to made adjustments from game to game was considered a strength that Gallant lacked. Yet DeBoer was unable to push the buttons to get Stone, Pacioretty, and the other Knights’ forwards going against Carey Price and the Montreal defense. In the meantime, Gallant has been hired to be the head coach of the New York Rangers in the biggest market in the National Hockey League. With the windows beginning to close on the prime years of Stone, Pacioretty, and Alex Pietrangelo (the team’s major offseason acquisition last year) all 29-years-old or older, the urgency for the Vegas franchise to win their first Stanley Cup only intensifies. Expect many moves in the offseason. Good luck - TDG.

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Was Jon Rahm’s Extra-Motivation the Key to Winning the US Open?

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, Jun 30, 2021

I think it was George Carlin who had a comedy bit in his stand-up act that mocked the notion of someone putting on their “game face.” Cue Carlin trying out several goofy facial expressions mimicking the hypothetical professional athlete who is ready to get down to business to take their craft extra-seriously. Carlin was the best.I thought of this joke when handicapping the US Open and reading many of the assessments regarding Jon Rahm’s chances of winning the tournament. The Spaniard was returning to action for the first time since having to disqualify himself ten days prior after the third round of the Memorial Tournament where he held a dominant six-stroke lead before getting word that he tested positive for COVID. With Rahm out of the way, space was opened up for Patrick Cantlay to outduel Collin Morikawa to win Jack Nicklaus’ tournament at Muirfield Village. There was some commentary that Rahm should have been allowed to complete the final round by himself early the next day in place of having to be disqualified. That is absurd. Part of the professional challenge in winning a golf tournament is to handle the pressure of performing when winning or losing is on the line. Round Four of a golf tournament is not the SATs, to be completed whenever possible. Besides, letting Rahm play by himself to complete the tournament would have given him a competitive advantage after violating a tournament rule (don’t test positive for COVID). It was unfortunate, but so are many of the rules of professional golf. The rules should not change depending on how where the golfer is on the leader board at the time.I digress. With Rahm cleared from COVID quarantine just in time for the US Open at Torrey Pines, many observers picked Rahm to win the event because he would be particularly motivated to prove himself after being robbed of his chance to win the Memorial. There were plenty of reasons to favor Rahm to win the US Open — but thinking he retained “extra” motivation after his DQ two weeks earlier was not a good one. At all. Was Rahm not motivated to finally win his first major before losing out on his opportunity to win the Memorial in Round Four? Were his competitors that week less motivated to win a major championship because their season had yet to be interrupted by COVID (or anything else). Brooks Koepka? Bryson DeChambeau? Jordan Spieth? Really?And, look, I am a handicapper that tries to make assessments into relative differences in motivation. That level of qualitative analysis is one of the tools in my proverbial toolbox. The handicappers and forecasters that rely exclusively on quantitative analysis tend to dismiss motivation as a factor. I think there are plenty of times when there may be discrepancies between two sides regarding how much they want to win — even amongst professionals. To be specific, I suspect that the drive that Phil Mickelson had to win the US Open may not have been as strong as it was when he pulled off his historic victory at the PGA Championship the previous month. Don’t get me wrong: when Mickelson teed off on the first tee in the first round, he probably wanted to win just as much as Jon Rahm or Brooks Koepka did. But this gets to the broader point: I care about motivation when it translates into harder and longer work to prepare for a tournament or game. If the players on the University of Michigan football team are all preparing ten extra hours in the week preparing to play arch-rival Ohio State, that may finally translate into a victory again against the Buckeyes. I am not sure if Mickelson worked quite as hard to prepare for the US Open as he was to prepare for the PGA Championship. It is only natural to level off your work once you find the success one is seeking. For Rahm, being even more motivated to win the US Open after suffering his DQ at the Memorial would have translated into more time practicing his craft on the golf course. But Rahm was required to be in quarantine — so he could not put in the work that makes the difference vis-a-vis your peers when there is a difference in motivation. Maybe the physical and mental break from golf helped Rahm once the US Open started? Could be — but that is a different argument (and one I considered). There were plenty of good reasons to like Rahm to win the US Open. He ranked number one on the tour in Adjusted Scoring at the time. He was playing great golf, as evidenced by his dominant lead at the Memorial before his DQ. He had a great course history at Torrey Pines. But Rahm wanting to prove something after losing out his chance to win the Memorial was not one of them. He was robbed of the ability to translate that extra incentive into the tangible work that makes a difference once the competition starts. And I do not buy the notion that competitors care more about success once their event starts.I passed on Rahm to win the US Open, mostly because his price at +1000 was too low. It looked like an underlay bet to me. My Best Best was on Brooks Koepka who closed at +1600 to win — and he finished fourth. Koepka is on record admitting his focus tends to wane at non-majors — so there is no way I think he was less motivated to win his third US Open than Rahm was to finally win his first major championship. Rahm having something to prove at the US Open after getting DQed in his last start was an easy sound bite or sentence to write. Too easy, and not very smart. As if the DQ afforded Rahm the opportunity he finally needed to find his “game face.” Best of luck — Frank.

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MLB - Teams to Bet and Teams to Fade

by AAA Sports

Wednesday, Jun 30, 2021

Teams To FadeGiants - Through 79 games, San Francisco is +22.1 units. That’s way out in front of everybody else. No team has finished up that many units in three of the past four seasons. In a division with the Dodgers and Padres, the second half schedule won’t be easy. Red Sox - Boston is second at +14.5 units. We didn’t expect to see them leading the AL East entering July. They are 14-7 in one run games and 10-2 in interleague play. More importantly, they are 21-10 in division games. We don’t think any of those win percentages can be maintained.Mariners - The M’s are +13.6 units. They have a winning record. But only two American League teams have scored fewer runs. No one has been better in extra inning games (7-1), which seems to be more about luck. Team to Bet Astros - Houston has a run differential of +130. There’s only one other team with a run differential better than +100. Only three others are higher than +75. As of now, the Astros are only +2.1 units. They are likely to have a higher win percentage in the second half of the season.Team to Bet (Over)Orioles - Despite giving up 5.5 runs/game, which is the most in the American League, Baltimore has gone Over in only half their games. The pitching isn’t going to get any better. Team to Bet (Under)Pirates - This team scores less than any other in baseball (3.5 runs/game). Pitcher to Bet OnCole (NYY) - He’s -9.8 units, which is last among all starters. But he has a 2.66 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. His team start record is 8-8. He’s likely to win more than he loses moving forward. Pitcher to FadeRodriguez (BOS) - He’s +4.8 units with a 10-5 TSR. But he has a 5.83 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Those numbers aren’t indicative of a pitcher that should be coming out ahead in two-thirds of his starts. 

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Euro Cup Quarterfinals Preview

by Power Sports

Wednesday, Jun 30, 2021

We’re down to the quarterfinals of this year’s Euro Cup. Some of the sides that remain - such as Belgium, England, Italy and Spain - were expected to get here. Others - like Czech Republic and Ukraine - are a bit of a surprise. Over on the right side of the bracket, there is potential for the ultimate “feel good” story with Denmark. Their tournament got off to the worst possible start with Christian Eriksen collapsing in the opening match and going into cardiac arrest. Later that day, Denmark had to resume the match with Finland and suffered a shock 1-0 loss. Then they blew an early lead to favored Belgium and lost that one too. But Eriksen showed up on the sideline for the team’s final match of the group stage and since then everything has changed. Denmark rolled Russia 4-1 to qualify for the knockout stage, then beat Wales 4-0 in the Round of 16. The right side of the bracket is considered the much weaker half. Next up for Denmark will be Czech Republic, who shocked the Netherlands 2-0 in the Round of 16. The Czechs have conceded only two goals the entire tournament. Going back to earlier competitions, it’s been a long time since they conceded more than one in any match. But something to keep in mind is that even before their “resurgence,” Denmark had been playing well. They had the second best shot difference (+46) and fourth best expected goal differential (+3.4) in the group stage. England should now be considered the favorite on the weaker side of the draw. They are more than a 2/1 favorite to beat Ukraine in the quarterfinals, as they should be. Through four matches in Euro “2020,” the Three Lions have yet to concede a single goal. They are the lone side that can say that. But they’ve only scored four times. Ukraine beat 10-man Sweden in the quarters with the latest game winner ever in a major tournament. They got the game-winner in the final minute of added time. They’ve scored six goals in the tournament, more than England, but also conceded six. It would be shocking to see them in the semis.Over on the other side of the draw, Spain is favored to beat Switzerland. It should not have been as hard as it was for La Roja against Croatia in the Round of 16. They blew a two-goal lead in the final 10 minutes. Added time belonged to them as they scored twice. That’s now 10 goals from Spain in the last two matches. Keen observers probably saw this coming. Spain had 7.5 expected goals in the group stage, which was second most of anybody. Switzerland also erased a late two-goal deficit in its Round of 16 fixture. But unlike Croatia, they were able to finish the deal and stunned France on penalties. The Swiss had an underwhelming first two matches of this tournament before blitzing Turkey to stay alive. They probably “should have” lost to France though. This is the first time La Nati has ever made the European Championship quarterfinals in their history. Their record against Spain is quite poor, but they’ve also only been beaten once in the last 11 competitions. Clearly, the marquee quarter final fixture is between Italy and Belgium. Italy looked like the best side in the group stage. They are on an unbeaten run of 31 straight matches, a new national record.  But they needed added time to get by Austria in the Round of 16. Belgium was the #1 ranked team in the world coming into the tournament. They have not lost in 2021. Both sides will come into Friday on 14-match win streaks. But one streak obviously has to end. Belgium has not only won 14 in a row, but 23 of their last 27. They’ve scored a goal in 34 straight matches. But their record against Italy isn’t very good. They have just four wins and 14 losses in the last 22 meetings. There are injuries to monitor on the Belgian side. One of them is Kevin De Bruyne (ankle) and the other is captain Eden Hazard (muscular). Neither injury is believed to be serious, but you’ve got two significant contributors that won’t be fully fit. That could end up being the difference in the match. I, for one, will be looking forward to the remainder of Euro 2020. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NBA, WNBA and NHL Previews and Odds - 06/30/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Jun 30, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features games in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and WNBA.The NBA playoffs continue with Game 6 in the Western Conference finals on ESPN. The Los Angeles Clippers won Game 5, 116-102, in an upset victory at Phoenix as a 7.5-point underdog on Monday. The Clippers have won six of their last nine games as they return home to the Staples Center to host Game 6. The Suns hold a 3-2 edge in the series and can reach the NBA Finals with a win. Phoenix is a 1-point road favorite with a total set at 215 (all odds from BetOnline). The tip-off is at 9:05 PM ET.The Stanley Cup finals return to action with Game 2 on the NBC Sports Network. Tampa Bay won the opening game of this series with a 5-1 victory on Monday. The Lightning have won three of their last four games. Montreal had their two-game winning streak end with the loss. They have still won 11 of their last 14 games. Tampa Bay hosts Game 2 as a -200 money line favorite with an over/under of 5. The puck drops at 8:08 PM ET.Fifteen games are on the MLB docket. St. Louis plays at home against Arizona at 1:15 PM ET as a -201 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Kwang-Hyun Kim pitches for the Cardinals against the Diamondbacks’ Riley Smith. The Chicago Cubs travel to Milwaukee at 2:10 PM ET. The Cubs send out Jake Arrieta to start against the Brewers’ Aaron Ashby. Colorado hosts Pittsburgh at 3:10 PM ET as a -156 money line favorite with an over/under of 11.5. Jon Gray pitches for the Rockies against Chad Kuhl of the Pirates. Tampa Bay visits Washington at 4:05 PM ET as a -116 money line road favorite with a total of 10. The Rays’ Drew Rasmussen gets the start against the Nationals’ Jon Lester. Detroit plays at Cleveland at 4:10 PM ET in the opening game of a seven-inning doubleheader after Tuesday’s rainout. Wily Peralta pitches for the Tigers against the Indians’ Cal Quantrill. The second game of the Detroit/Cleveland doubleheader does not yet have an evening start time or scheduled starting pitchers. Miami plays at Philadelphia at 7:05 PM ET. The Marlins’ Jordan Holloway pitches against the Phillies’ Aaron Nola. The New York Yankees host the Los Angeles Angels as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Domingo German of the Yankees duels against Shohei Ohtani. Toronto plays at home against Seattle at 7:07 PM ET as a -201 money line favorite with a total of 10.5. The Blue Jays’ Steven Matz pitches against the Mariners’ Justus Sheffield. Boston is at home against Kansas City at 7:10 PM ET as a -160 money line favorite with the over/under at 10.5. Martin Perez pitches for the Red Sox against Mike Minor of the Royals. San Diego visits Cincinnati as a -170 money line road favorite with a total of 10. The Padres’ send out Joe Musgrove to face the Reds’ Vladimir Gutierrez. Atlanta plays at home against the New York Mets at 7:20 PM ET as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Max Fried pitches for the Braves against the Mets’ David Peterson. The Chicago White Sox host the Minnesota Twins at 8:10 PM ET as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 9. The White Sox pitch Dylan Cease against Bailey Ober of the Twins. Houston plays at home against Baltimore as a -310 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Luis Garcia of the Astros duels against the Orioles’ Matt Harvey. Oakland is at home against Texas at 9:40 PM ET as a -191 money line favorite with a total of 8. The A’s Chris Bassitt pitches against the Rangers’ Kolby Allard. Three games are on the WNBA docket. Chicago visits Dallas on the CBS Sports Network at 8 PM ET. Minnesota travels to Phoenix in the second game of the CBS Sports Network doubleheader at 10 PM ET. Las Vegas plays at Los Angeles at 10:30 PM ET.

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NHL Hockey: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens Game 2 Preview and Odds - 06/30/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Jun 30, 2021

The Stanley Cup finals continue on Wednesday, with the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Montreal Canadiens on the NBC Sports Network at 8:08 PM ET. Tampa Bay took a 1-0 lead in this best-of-seven series with their 5-1 victory on Monday. Erik Cernak opened the scoring for the Lightning with a goal at the 6:19 minute mark of the first period. Yanni Gourde made it a 2-0 score when he scored at 5:47 of the second period. Ben Chariot got Montreal on the board with his goal at 17:40 of the second period. Nikita Kucherov made it a 3-1 game when he scored two minutes into the third period, and he extended the lead to 4-1 just under nine and a half minutes later. Steven Stamkos scored the final goal on a power play at 18:50 of the third period. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 18 of the 19 shots he faced in the win. He has a 13-6 record in the playoffs, with a 1.94 goals-against-average, a .936 save percentage, and four shutouts. He had a 31-10-1 record in the regular season, with a 2.21 goals-against-average and a .925 save percentage. He finished in second place to Marc-Andre Fleury for the Vezina Trophy last night, awarded to the top goaltender of the season. He previously won that award in 2019.The Lightning aspires to become the eighth team in NHL history to win back-to-back Stanley Cup championships. Tampa Bay won their first Stanley Cup in the 2003-04 season before winning the title again last season. The Pittsburgh Penguins are the most recent franchise to repeat as champions in 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons. Tampa Bay opened their postseason campaign by defeating the Florida Panthers in six games. They followed that up by beating the Carolina Hurricanes in five games in the East Division finals. The Lightning needed seven games to outlast the New York Islanders in the Stanley Cup semifinals. Brayden Point leads the league with 14 goals in the postseason. His nine-game playoff streak with at least one point ended in Game 7 in the Islanders series on Friday. He assisted on three goals on Monday. Nikita Kucherov leads the NHL with 30 points in the playoffs. He has scored seven goals and added 22 assists. The lower-body injury he suffered in Game 6 last round that limited him to 16:29 minutes in Game 7 did not appear to slow him down on Monday. He played 19:04 minutes. Steven Stamkos is third on the team with 18 points from eight goals and ten assists. Carey Price gave up five goals on the 27 shots he faced on Monday for the Canadiens. Not only was that the most goals he has allowed in one game this postseason, but it also equaled the number of goals that he allowed in the three previous games against Vegas. The 2015 Vezina Trophy winner has a 12-6 record in the playoffs this season, with a 2.18 goals-against-average and a .928 save percentage.Tyler Toffoli leads the team with 14 points coming from five goals and nine assists. Nick Suzuki has 13 points from five goals and eight assists.  Cole Caufield and Corey Perry both have nine points, tied for third-most on the team. Montreal defeated the Vegas Golden Knights in six games to reach the Stanley Cup finals. The Canadiens opened their postseason run by defeating the heavily-favored Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games. Montreal then swept Winnipeg in four games in the North Division finals before upsetting Vegas in six games. The Canadiens have won 11 of their last 13 games since trailing the Maple Leafs, 3-1, in that first-round series. They have won the Stanley Cup championship 22 times. They last won the Cup in 1993 in their most recent appearance in the finals.  The Canadiens’ streak of 13 straight games without allowing giving up a power-play goal ended with the Stamkos goal late in the third period. They had successfully thwarted 32 power plays from their opponents in a row. Tampa Bay had three power-play chances in Game 1. They have scored 21 power plays in the playoffs, a 37.5% success rate on their 56 opportunities with the man advantage. Montreal will likely still be without Joel Armia indefinitely after he entered the COVID quarantine protocol. He did not travel with the team to Florida for Game 1, and he is questionable for Game 2. The Canadiens expect head coach Dominique Ducharme back for Game 3 when he completes the COVID quarantine protocol. Assistant head coach Luke Richardson will retain head coaching bench duties until then. The team has a 3-2 record under Richardson since Ducharme began quarantine. Tomas Tatar and Jake Evans remain questionable with the injuries that kept them out last round. BetAnySports lists Tampa Bay as a -195 money line favorite for Game 2, with the total set at 5.

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Ness Notes: We're No. 1 (How College Football Has Chosen Its No. 1 Teams)

by Larry Ness

Tuesday, Jun 29, 2021

Rutgers and New Jersey (now known as Princeton) faced off in what is considered to be the first American football game ever played on Nov 6, 1869. The game took place in New Brunswick, New Jersey, with an audience of about 100 on hand, according to Rutgers. Rutgers won 6-4. Stealing a line from the Virginia Slim Women's Tennis Circuit (formed in 1970), "We've Come A Long Way Baby." It took awhile but college football's first try at answering the question "Who's No. 1?" came in 1926. Frank Dickinson, an economics professor at the University of Illinois, released the first mathematical ranking of teams in an attempt to come up with a scientific method to rate/rank teams. This came 10 years before the first Associated Press poll (1936) and 24 years before the Coaches' Poll, which debuted in 1950 for United Press International. I'll start my "look back" in 1950, as this is going to be long article that will be broken into four parts.The Associated Press Poll began with sports editors of AP newspapers voting for the top 20 teams nationally in 1936. Minnesota and Northwestern each finished with 7-1 records but even though Northwestern beat Minnesota 6-0 during the regular season, Minnesota was named No. 1 in the final poll. Right from the start, the AP's No. 1 team in its final poll was dubbed college football's " mythical national champion." What a great name. Nailed it! More trouble arose in 1947 when Notre Dame and Michigan alternated Nos. 1 and 2 slots throughout the year with Notre Dame getting the final regular-season nod, even though both teams were 9-0. The AP released its final poll before the bowl season back then and the Fighting Irish were not going to bowls back then. So, when Michigan beat USC 49-0 in the Rose Bowl, the public demanded that the voters release another post-bowl poll, which the Wolverines won easily. However, the AP decided that the postseason poll did not supersede the final regular-season poll. Can't make this stuff up. If the second poll was not going to count, why take it?1950 became a pivotal year as AP’s rival United Press began its own top-20 poll, voted on by a panel of coaches. The two polls would go head-to-head for the next 45 years. By 1954, we had our first split national champions. Ohio State (10-0) prevailed in the AP and UCLA (9-0) in the UPI. The two teams were not able to meet in the Rose Bowl to decide the “on-the-field” champion, as UCLA had played in the Rose Bowl the year before against Michigan and under the Pac-8’s “no-repeater” rule had to remain in Westwood. Ohio State defeated an 8-4 USC team 20-7 in the Rose Bowl and gave coach Woody Hayes his first AP championship with a 10-0 record. FYI, UCLA beat USC 34-0 in 1954's regular season. In 1957, a 10-0 Auburn team won the AP title but the UPI national championship went to an Ohio St team that lost its first game but then won NINE in a row, capping its season with an unimpressive 10-7 Rose Bowl win over an Oregon team that lost its fourth game of the year in Pasadena. Things were fairly calm the next seven seasons but beginning in 1965, college football had SIX split national champions through 1978 (14-year span).  Things settled down beginning in 1979, as through the 1989 season college football featured 11 straight consensus national champions. However, Colorado (11-1-1) won the AP title and Georgia Tech (10-0-1) won the Coaches' title in 1990 and then Miami-Fl (12-0) won the AP title and Washington (12-0) the Coaches' title in 1991. That caused "the powers that be" in college football to make a change. The Bowl Coalition was established for the 1992 season after those back-to-back co-national champions of 1990 and 1991. The agreement was in place for the 1992, 1993, 1994 and 1995 college football seasons and we had FOUR straight clear-cut national champions, Alabama in 1992, Florida St in 1993 plus Nebraska in back-to-back seasons (1994 and 1995)  For some reason, that wasn't good enough, so the Bowl Alliance was implemented. I'll leave it to you to decide how well it worked.The 1996 season proved to be far less than satisfying as the top two teams, Florida State and Arizona State, did not meet because Arizona State was bound to the Rose Bowl and a game vs Big Ten champion Ohio St. ASU would lose 20-17 to the Buckeyes, while FSU lost 52-20 to Florida in the Sugar Bowl. Those two results left the 12-1 Gators with the final No. 1 spot in both polls. Then came the 1997 season in which Michigan finished 12-0 after a 21-16 win over Washington St in the Rose Bowl and Nebraska finished 13-0 with a 42-17 win over Tennessee in the Orange Bowl. Michigan was named the AP national champion (Lloyd Carr got his first AP title in only his third year as head coach of the Wolverines) but even though both teams won in the bowls, 21 coaches changed their votes and handed Tom Osborne the third poll championship for Nebraska in four years.The 1998 season was the first year of the Bowl Championship Series (BCS), which is where I'll continue my journey next week.Good luck...Larry

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