Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: UEFA Champions League, NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/05/2021

Wednesday, May 05, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the UEFA Champions League.Nine games are on the NBA docket. The card begins at 7 PM ET, with Boston visiting Orlando as a 10.5-point road favorite at DraftKings. Portland plays at Cleveland at 7:30 PM ET as an 11-point road favorite at DraftKings.Five more NBA games start at 8 PM ET. Memphis travels to Minnesota as a 4-point road favorite with the total set at 236.5 (all odds from BetOnline unless indicated otherwise). Phoenix plays at Atlanta as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 227.5. Philadelphia is at Houston as a 15-point road favorite at DraftKings. Indiana plays at home against Sacramento as a 6.5-point favorite at DraftKings. Milwaukee is at home against Washington. Utah hosts San Antonio at 9 PM ET as a 7-point favorite at DraftKings. Denver is at home against New York as a 3-point favorite with a total of 214. Nine games are on the NHL schedule. Four games start the card at 7 PM ET. Nashville travels to Columbus as a -177 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5. Tampa Bay plays at home against Dallas as a -155 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Montreal visits Ottawa as a -151 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Washington visits the New York Rangers in the opening game of a doubleheader on the NBC Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Capitals ended a two-game losing streak with a 6-3 victory in Madison Square Garden against the Rangers on Monday. New York has lost three in a row. Washington is a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. St. Louis hosts Anaheim at 8 PM ET as a -240 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Vegas plays at Minnesota as a -121 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The nightcap on the NBC Sports Network has Colorado playing at San Jose at 9:30 PM ET. The Avalanche have won three in a row with their 5-4 victory on the road against the Sharks on Monday. San Jose has lost three in a row. Colorado is a -265 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Calgary plays at Winnipeg at 9:30 PM ET as a -113 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Anaheim is at home against Los Angeles as a -132 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Sixteen games are on the MLB slate. Cincinnati hosts the Chicago White Sox at 12:35 PM ET as a -126 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Colorado plays at home against San Francisco as a -108 money line favorite with an over/under of 10. Seattle is at home against Baltimore as a -112 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The New York Mets play at St. Louis at 5:15 PM ET in the opening game of their seven-inning doubleheader. Miami hosts Arizona at 6:40 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. The New York Yankees play at home against Houston as a -137 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Atlanta visits Washington as a -131 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Milwaukee travels to Philadelphia as a -137 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Boston is at home against Detroit as a -177 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Los Angeles Dodgers play on the road at Wrigley Field in Chicago against the Cubs on ESPN at 7:40 PM ET. The Cubs swept the Tuesday doubleheader with Los Angeles by 7-1 and 4-3 scores. The Dodgers have lost five of six games. Los Angeles is a -170 money line road favorite. Texas plays at Minnesota at 7:40 PM ET. St. Louis is at home against the New York Mets at 7:45 PM ET. San Diego hosts Pittsburgh at 8:10 PM ET as a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Cleveland visits Kansas City as a -157 money line road favorite with a total of 7. The Los Angeles Angeles play at home against Tampa Bay at 9:38 PM ET. Oakland is at home against Toronto at 9:40 PM ET as a -121 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.The second leg of the UEFA Champions League semifinals concludes on Wednesday, with Chelsea hosting Real Madrid on the CBS Sports Network at 3 PM ET. These two teams settled with a 1-1 draw in Madrid in the first leg last Tuesday.

UEFA Champions League: Paris Saint-Germain vs. Manchester City Preview, Odds and Prediction - 05/04/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, May 04, 2021

The second leg of the semifinals of the UEFA Champions League begins on Tuesday, with Paris Saint-Germain traveling to the Etihad Stadium to face Manchester City on the CBS Sports Network at 3 PM ET.Man City won the first leg last Wednesday in a 2-1 victory. PSG scored the opening goal from Marquinhos header 15 minutes into the match. Les Parisiens kept that lead through halftime before Kevin De Bruyne evened the score at the 64-minute mark. Riyad Mahrez scored the game-winner seven minutes later from a free-kick that snuck through a leaky PSG wall. A red card issued to PSG midfielder Idrissa Gueye moments later left manager Mauricio Pochettino’s side down to ten men. Gueye is suspended for this match. Manchester City followed up that victory with a 2-1 win at Crystal Palace on Saturday. Sergio Aguero and Ferran Torres made the score sheet for the Citizens. Manager Peg Guardiola’s side has won five of their last six matches across all competitions. The Citizens advanced to the semifinals of the Championship League for the first time under Guardiola’s stewardship with their 4-2 aggregate score victory against Borussia Dortmund. Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden scored in the opening leg 2-1 win at the Etihad Stadium on April 6th. Riyad Mahrez and Foden scored in the second leg on the road on April 14th. Man City reached the quarterfinals after they dispatched another Bundesliga side, Borussia Monchengladbach, by a 4-0 aggregate score in the first knockout stage. The Citizens have won ten of their eleven Champions League matches this season with a 0-0 draw against FC Porto, the lone blemish on their resume. Guardiola is on track to guide Man City to their third English Premier League title in the last four seasons. The Citizens are in first place by 12 points over Manchester United. PSG rebounded from their midweek loss by defeating Lens at home, 2-1, on Saturday, with Neymar and Marquinhos scoring goals. Les Parisiens have won five of their last seven games across all competitions. They remain in second place in Ligue 1, one point behind Lille.Pochettino led his team to the semifinals of the European championship by defeating Bayern Munich with the away goals tiebreaker. Les Parisiens won the opening match at Allianz Stadium, 3-2, on April 7th. Kylian Mbappe scored twice, and Marquinhos added a third goal in the triumph. Despite losing at home to the Bavarians in the second leg on April 13th, their three goals on the road broke the 3-3 aggregate score stalemate. PSG may have endured the most difficult road to reach the final four. They survived a challenging group stage that included RB Leipzig and Manchester United. Les Parisiens then faced Barcelona in the first knockout stage round. They defeated Lionel Messi and company by a 5-2 aggregate score after striking a dominant 4-1 blow on the road in the first leg against Barca. Mbappe suffered a calf injury that kept him out of the weekend match against Lens. He is not in the starting XI for this match, but he may be available as a substitute. Paris Saint-Germain must score at least two goals in victory to advance to the finals. A 2-1 result for PSG in regulation time would force extra time with the aggregate score tied at three goals apiece and deadlocked with two away goals. If both teams score in extra time, but the score remains tied after the two after the two 15-minute halves, the road team wins via the away goals tie-breaker. A best-of-five penalty shootout resolves the match if the extra time goes scoreless. Neither of these storied franchises has lifted the UEFA Champions League trophy. PSG lost to Bayern Munich in the finals last August. Les Parisiens would be just the ninth team in the history of the event to reach the finals if they can get past Man City. BetOnline lists Man City as a -0.75 goal line favorite with the total set at 3.Computer prediction: Manchester City 3 Paris Saint-Germain 1

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 05/04/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, May 04, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the UEFA Champions League.Seven games are on the NBA docket. The card begins at 7 PM ET with two games. Phoenix plays at Cleveland as a 13-point road favorite at DraftKings. Detroit is at home against Charlotte. Milwaukee hosts Brooklyn in the first game of a doubleheader on TNT starting at 7:30 PM ET. The Bucks have won five of their last seven games after defeating the Nets, 117-114, as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. Brooklyn had been on a four-game winning streak. Milwaukee is a 2-point favorite with the total set at 241.5 (all odds from BetOnline unless indicated otherwise). Three more NBA games start at 8 PM ET. Sacramento visits Oklahoma City as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 230.5. Miami plays at home against Dallas as a 3-point favorite at DraftKings. Golden State is at New Orleans. The nightcap on TNT has the Los Angeles Clippers at home against Toronto at 10:10 PM ET. The Clippers have lost three in a row after their 110-104 upset loss to Denver as a 6-point favorite on Saturday. The Raptors ended a three-game losing streak with their 121-114 win at Los Angeles against the Lakers as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday. Los Angeles is a 9-point favorite with a total of 221.5. Five games are on the NHL schedule. Four games begin the card at 7 PM ET. Boston visits New Jersey as a -240 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Carolina is at home against Chicago as a -232 money line favorite with a total of 6. Pittsburgh plays at Philadelphia as a -165 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The New York Islanders are at Buffalo as a -260 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5.Edmonton travels to Vancouver on the NBC Sports Network at 10 PM ET. The Oilers won their fourth game in their last five with their 5-3 victory on the road against the Canucks on Monday. Vancouver has lost five in a row. Edmonton is a -190 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Seventeen games are on the MLB slate. The card begins at 2:20 PM with the Los Angeles Dodgers playing at Chicago against the Cubs in the first game of their seven-inning doubleheader. San Francisco visits Colorado at 5:40 PM ET in the first game of their seven-inning doubleheader. The Chicago White Sox travel to Cincinnati at 6:40 PM ET as a -115 money line road favorite with a total of 9. Arizona is at Miami. The New York Yankees play at home against Houston on ESPN at 7:05 PM ET. The Yankees have won five of their last six games with their 2-0 win against Detroit on Sunday. The Astros had their two-game winning streak end with a 5-4 loss at Tampa Bay on Sunday. Houston sends out Zack Greinke to face Domingo German. New York is a -117 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.Philadelphia hosts Milwaukee at 7:05 PM ET as a -172 money line favorite with a total of 8. Atlanta visits Washington as a -131 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Detroit plays at Boston. Minnesota is at home against Texas at 7:40 PM ET as a -155 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Dodgers play the Cubs in the second game of their doubleheader. The New York Mets travel to St. Louis at 7:45 PM ET as a -187 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Kansas City plays at home against Cleveland at 8:10 PM ET as a -136 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Giants play against the Rockies in the second game of their doubleheader at 8:40 PM ET. The Los Angeles Angels host Tampa Bay at 9:38 PM ET as a -116 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Oakland plays at home against Toronto at 9:40 PM ET as a -119 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Seattle plays at home against Baltimore at 10:10 PM ET as a -127 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Pittsburgh is at home against San Diego.The second leg of the UEFA Champions League semifinals begins on Tuesday, with Manchester City hosting Paris Saint-Germain on the CBS Sports Network at 3 PM ET. Man City won the first leg with a 2-1 victory at PSG last Tuesday. The Parisians must score at least two goals in victory to advance to the finals. A 2-1 result for PSG in regulation time would force extra time with the aggregate score tied at three goals apiece and deadlocked with two away goals. If both teams score in extra time, but the score remains tied after the two after the two 15-minute halves, the road team wins via the away goals tie-breaker. A best-of-five penalty shootout resolves the match if the extra time goes scoreless. Manchester City is a -0.75 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.

NHL Hockey: Minnesota Wild vs. Vegas Golden Knights Preview, Odds and Prediction - 05/03/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, May 03, 2021

The Vegas Golden Knights play the opening game of a two-game series in Minnesota against the Wild at 8 PM ET on the NBC Sports Network.Vegas won their eleventh game in their last twelve with Jonathan Marchessault’s power-play winner at the 3:04 mark in overtime. Williams Karlsson began the scoring just after ten minutes in the first period. Mark Stone added a second goal 5:14 minutes into the second period. The Golden Knights allowed two goals in the third period to force overtime before Marchessault’s winner. Marc-Andre Fleury made 19 saves in the victory. Peter DeBoer’s team is in first place in the West Division with 74 points. Vegas is four points ahead of Colorado with six games to play, although the Avalanche have one game in hand remaining on their regular-season schedule. The Golden Knights acquired Mattias Janmark from Chicago at the trade deadline. The versatile forward with experience at center and wing provides the team depth. He has been playing on the third line anchored by Alex Tuch.Stone leads the team at right wing with 56 points coming from 19 goals and 37 assists. Left wing Max Pacioretty adds 24 goals and 26 assists. Defenseman Shea Theodore is third on the team with 36 points from his seven goals and 34 assists. DeBoer will likely turn to Robin Lehner as his starting goaltender tonight. He has rotated starts between Fleury and Lehner for 18 straight games since Fleury started twice in a row in March in their two-game showdown with Colorado. Lehner is 12-2-2, with a 2.03 goals-against-average and a .923 save percentage. Fleury has a 22-10-0 record with a 2.08 goals-against-average and a .927 save percentage.Minnesota ended a two-game losing streak with a 4-3 win in overtime against St. Louis on Saturday. Kevin Fail scored 2:16 minutes into overtime to give his team the victory. The Wild fell behind by a 2-0 score in the first period before Mats Zuccarello cut the deficit in half at the 6:53 mark in the second period. Minnesota entered the third period trailing, 3-1, before Nico Strum scored with just over six minutes left in the game. Jonas Brodin then tied the game with one minute left in regulation to force overtime. Kaapo Kahkonen stopped 28 of the 31 shots he faced.The Wild are 8-1-1 in their last ten games, having clinched a spot in the postseason. Minnesota is in third place in the West, six points behind Vegas, and two points behind Colorado in second place (who have a game in hand). General manager Bill Guerin did not make any moves at the trade deadline.Kirill Kaprizov leads the team with 43 points from 23 goals and 20 assists. Kevin Fiala has 19 goals and 18 assists. Zuccarello is third on the team with 31 points from 11 goals and 20 assists.Cam Talbot gets the start tonight for head coach Dean Evason. The veteran has a 17-7-4 record this season, with a 2.48 goals-against-average and a .920 save percentage.Minnesota has won the last four meetings with the Golden Knights this season. These two teams last played on April 3rd, with the Wild winning in Las Vegas, 2-1.BetAnySports lists Vegas as a -120 money line road favorite with the total set at 5.5.Computer prediction: Minnesota Wild 3 Vegas Golden Knights 2

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/03/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, May 03, 2021

The Monday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the English Premier League.Eight games are on the NBA docket. The card begins at 7 PM ET with two games. Detroit hosts Orlando as a 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings. Washington plays at home against Indiana as a 5-point favorite at DraftKings. New Orleans is at home against Golden State in the first game of an ESPN doubleheader at 7:30 PM ET. The Pelicans have won three of their last four games with their 140-136 victory at Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Warriors ended a two-game losing streak with their 113-87 win at Houston as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. New Orleans is a 2-point favorite with a total set at 236.Atlanta hosts Portland at 8 PM ET as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 234.5. Memphis plays at home against New York as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 217.5. Philadelphia visits Chicago. Utah is at home against San Antonio at 10 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite at DraftKings. Fourteen games are on the NHL schedule. Nine games begin at 7 PM ET. The New York Islanders travels to Buffalo as a -230 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Pittsburgh plays at Philadelphia as a -148 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Carolina is at home against Chicago as a -237 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Washington visits the New York Rangers as a -110 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Nashville is at Columbus as a -173 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5. Boston is at New Jersey as a -214 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Winnipeg travels to Ottawa as a -150 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Toronto plays at Montreal as a -146 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Florida is at home against Dallas as a -140 money line favorite with a total of 5.5.St. Louis hosts Anaheim at 8 PM ET as a -230 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Vegas visits Minnesota as a -125 money line road favored with a total of 5.5. Arizona is at home against Los Angeles at 10 PM ET as a -134 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Colorado travels to San Jose at 10:30 PM ET as a -245 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Edmonton plays at Vancouver as a -190 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.Ten games are on the MLB slate. Philadelphia plays at home against Milwaukee at 7:05 PM ET as a -113 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Chicago Cubs at 7:40 PM ET as a -200 money line road favorite. Minnesota is at home against Texas as a -173 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Mets play at St. Louis at 7:45 PM ET.Cleveland travels to Kansas City at 8:10 PM ET as a -113 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Colorado plays at home against San Francisco at 8:40 PM ET as a -110 money line favorite with a total of 10. Tampa Bay visits the Los Angeles Angels at 9:38 PM ET as a -116 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Oakland hosts Toronto at 9:40 PM ET as a -119 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Baltimore plays at Seattle, and Pittsburgh visits San Diego at 10:10 PM ET. Matchweek 34 concludes with two matches on Peacock. Wolverhampton plays at West Bromwich Albion at 1 PM ET in a pick ‘em matchup with an over/under of 2.25. West Ham United visits Burnley at 3:15 PM ET as a -0.25 money line road favorite with a total of 2.5.

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, NHL, EPL and NBA Previews and Odds - 05/02/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, May 02, 2021

The Sunday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the English Premier League.Eight games are on the NBA docket. The card begins at 3:30 PM ET with Milwaukee hosting Brooklyn on ABC. The Bucks have two of their last three games after their 108-98 win at Chicago as a 1.5-point favorite on Friday. The Nets had their four-game winning streak end in a 128-109 loss at home to Portland as a 3-point underdog on Friday. Brooklyn is a 3-point favorite at DraftKings. Boston plays at home against Portland at 7:30 PM ET as a 2-point favorite at DraftKings. Five games start at 8 PM ET. New York travels to Houston as a 9-point road favorite with the total set at 216.5 (all odds from BetOnline unless otherwise indicated). Philadelphia visits San Antonio as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 221.5. Miami plays at Charlotte as a 5-point road favorite at DraftKings. Dallas is at home against Sacramento as a 7-point favorite at DraftKings. Phoenix is at Oklahoma City as a 14-point road favorite at DraftKings.The NBA card concludes at 10 PM ET with the Los Angeles Lakers playing at home against Toronto.One game is on the NHL schedule, with Tampa Bay traveling to Detroit on NBC at 3 PM ET. The Lightning had their four-game winning streak end on Saturday with their 1-0 loss on the road against the Red Wings. Detroit snapped a three-game losing streak with the victory. Tampa Bay is a -343 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5.Fifteen games are on the MLB schedule. Washington hosts Miami at 1:05 PM ET as a -142 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. St. Louis visits Pittsburgh as a -147 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The New York Yankees play at home against Detroit as a -240 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Atlanta plays at Toronto at 1:07 PM ET. Cincinnati is at home against the Chicago Cubs at 1:10 PM ET as a -138 money line favorite with a total of 9. Houston visits Tampa Bay. The Chicago White Sox are at home against Cleveland at 2:10 PM ET as a -158 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Minnesota hosts Kansas City as a -181 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at Milwaukee. Boston travels to Texas at 2:35 PM ET as -139 money line road favorite with the total at 9. Oakland hosts Baltimore at 4:07 PM ET as a -188 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Arizona plays at home against Colorado at 4:10 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Los Angeles Angels visit Seattle as a -143 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. San Francisco plays at San Diego. The MLB card concludes at 7 PM ET on ESPN, with Philadelphia playing at home against the New York Mets. The Phillies have lost two of their last three games after a 5-4 loss to the Mets in the second game of their three-game weekend series. New York ended a three-game losing streak with the victory. They send out David Petersen to face Philly’s Zach Eflin. Philadelphia is a -107 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League continues with three matches on the NBC Sports Network. Arsenal visits Newcastle United on at 9 AM ET as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool plays at Manchester United at 11:30 AM ET in a pick ‘em matchup with a total of 2.5. Tottenham hosts Sheffield United at 2:15 PM ET as a -1.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.75.

Major League Baseball: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Preview, Odds and Prediction - 05/02/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, May 02, 2021

The New York Mets play in Philadelphia against the Phillies to conclude their three-game series tonight for ESPN Sunday Night Baseball at 7 PM ET. The Mets ended a three-game losing streak last night with a dramatic 5-4 victory. Michael Conforto broke a 4-4 tie in the top of the ninth inning with a game-winning home run. He also clubbed a two-run double as part of a four-run first inning. The victory was just New York’s fourth win in their last 12 games. The Mets are in third place in the National League East with a 10-11 record, three games behind the Phillies. Expectations are high for the franchise to break a four-year playoff drought. Former general manager Sandy Alderson was brought back as the new team president, and he added brought in 18 new players to the roster. The highest-profile acquisition was shortstop Francisco Lindor who came over to Gotham in a blockbuster trade with Cleveland. He was then inked to a ten-year, $341 million contract extension at the beginning of April. Lindor has not rewarded management with production on the field. He is slumping with a .182 batting average, and he has only one home run with three runs batted in. First baseman Pete Alonso leads the team with five homers and 18 RBIs. New York is scoring 3.0 runs-per-game, with a .232 batting average, an on-base percentage of .303, and an OPS of .655. They are last in the majors with only three stolen bases.David Peterson gets the start for manager Luis Rojas. The right-hander comes off a quality start in which he allowed two runs in six innings at home against Boston on Tuesday. He is 1-3 with a 5.59 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in four starts. The Mets’ bullpen has a 3.45 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP in 60 innings. Philadelphia remains in first place in the NL East with a 13-14 record. The organization hopes for their first winning season since 2011 and to break a nine-year postseason drought. First-baseman Rhys Hoskins leads the team with eight home runs and 14 RBIs. Outfielder Bryce Harper adds six homers and 10 RBIs along with a .321 batting average. The Phillies are scoring 3.7 runs-per-game, with a .231 batting average, .298 on-base percentage, and an OPS of .667. The team returned the starting lineup from last year that helped them finish tied for fifth in MLB in runs scored. Manager Joe Girardi turns to Zach Eflin tonight. The right-hander was tagged for five runs in 6 2/3 innings of work in his last start at St. Louis on Tuesday. The 26-year-old has a 1-1 record with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in five starts. The Philadelphia bullpen has a 4.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. Brandon Nimmo and J.D. Davis left yesterday’s game with injuries. They are questionable to take the field tonight for the Mets. Catcher J.T. Realmuto and Harper are questionable for the Phillies with nagging injuries. BookMaker lists Philadelphia as a -115 money line favorite with the total set at 9.Computer prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 6 New York Mets 4

147th Kentucky Derby: A Look at the Horses and the Morning Line Odds

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, May 01, 2021

The 147th Kentucky Derby returns to its traditional first Saturday in May. The first leg of the Triple Crown tests the three-year-old horses with a 1 1/4 mile dirt track at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Post time is 6:57 PM ET on NBC. Below is a breakdown of the 20 horses.#1 Known Agenda (Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.). The winner of the Florida Derby on March 27th for the famed trainer, Todd Pletcher. Two wins since adding blinkers. A best Beyer speed mark of 94. 6-1 morning line odds.#2 Like the King (Trainer: Wesley Ward; Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke). Three wins but two of the victories on a synthetic surface and one on turf, so the transition to dirt is a question. A best Beyer figure of 86. 50-1 morning line odds.#3 Brooklyn Strong (Trainer: Daniel Velazquez; Jockey: Umberto Rispoli). Beat Known Agenda at the Grade 2 Remsen on December 5th before finishing outside the money, most recently at the Wood Memorial on April 10th. A best Beyer mark of 94. 50-1 morning line odds.#4 Keepmeinmind (Trainer: Robertino Diodoro; Jockey: David Cohen). Finished in third place at the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile as a maiden. Fifth place, most recently at the Blue Grass. A best Beyer mark of 92. 50-1 morning line odds.#5 Sainthood (Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Corey Lanerie). A late finish to earn second place at the Jeffy Ruby on March 27th. A best Beyer figure of 84. 50-1 morning line odds.#6 O Besos (Trainer: Greg Foley; Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza). A third-place result at the Louisiana Derby on March 20th. Sired by Kentucky Derby winner Sire. A best Beyer mark of 96. 20-1 morning line odds. #7 Mandaloun (Trainer: Brad Cox; Jockey: Florent Geroux). Won the Risen Star on February 13th before a sixth-place finish at the Louisiana Derby. A best Beyer mark of 98. 15-1 morning line odds.#8 Medina Spirit (Trainer: Bob Baffert; Jockey: John Velazquez). Won the Robert B. Lewis on January 30th before a second place at the Santa Anita Derby on April 3rd. Never worse than second place in five starts. A top Beyer figure of 99. 15-1 morning line odds.#9 Hot Rod Charlie (Trainer: Doug O’Neill; Jockey: Flavien Prat). The Lousiana Derby winner on March 20th. A best Beyer mark of 99. 8-1 morning line odds.#10 Midnight Bourbon (Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Mike Smith). A second-place finish at the Louisiana Derby. A top Beyer figure of 96. 20-1 morning line odds.#11 Dynamic One (Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Jose Ortiz). A second-place finish at the Wood Memorial on April 10th. A best Beyer mark of 89. 20-1 morning line odds.#12 Helium (Trainer: Mark Casse; Jockey: Julien Leparoux). Unbeaten in three starts, but only one of the races were on dirt. A top Beyer figure of 84. 50-1 morning line odds.#13 Hidden Stash (Trainer: Vicki Oliver; Jockey: Rafael Bejarano). A fourth-place finish at the Blue Grass Stakes. A best Beyer mark of 83. 50-1 morning line odds.#14 Essential Quality (Trainer: Brad Cox; Jockey: Luis Saez). Unbeaten with wins at the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile last year and the Blue Grass Stakes on April 3rd. A top Beyer figure of 97. The favorite to win with 2-1 morning line odds.#15 Rock Your World (Trainer: John Sadler; Jockey: Joel Rosario). Unbeaten with a victory at the Santa Anita Derby in his most recent start on April 3rd. A best Beyer mark of 100. The second favorite to win with 5-1 morning line odds.#16 King Fury (Trainer: Ken McPeek; Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.). Won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 10th. A top Beyer figure of 96. 20-1 morning line odds. A late scratch this week from a fever.#17 Highly Motivated (Trainer: Chad Brown; Jockey: Javier Castellano). A second-place result to Essential Quality at the Blue Grass Stakes. A top Beyer figure of 97. 10-1 morning line odds.#18 Super Stock (Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Ricardo Santana, Jr.). Won the Arkansas Derby on April 10th. A best Beyer figure of 92. 30-1 morning line odds.#19 Soup and Sandwich (Trainer: Mark Casse; Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione). A second-place result at the Florida Derby. A top Beyer mark of 90. 30-1 morning line odds.#20 Bourbonic (Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche). Won the Wood Memorial at 73-1 odds on April 10th. A best Beyer figure of 89. 30-1 morning line odds.

2021 Kentucky Derby Preview, Part 4: The Bombs to Use in Exotics

by Al McMordie

Saturday, May 01, 2021

The 147th running of the Kentucky Derby will take place later this evening. We've been previewing it throughout the week, as we covered the top contenders on Wednesday, the value plays on Thursday, and the over-bet pretenders yesterday. Today, we'll conclude our four-part series with a look at the bombs to use in exotic wagers.In many ways the 2021 Kentucky Derby could be subtitled "back to normal". After going way off course in 2020, the Derby will look like the Derby again this coming weekend. It will be run on the first Saturday in May; it will likely top the headlines for the weekend; and there will be real fans in the stands. But one thing will yet again be different. For the first time in a long time, Bob Baffert will not have a strong favorite in the race (and he will only have one horse entered as well). In fact, the California-based trainer's Medina Spirit will likely be no better than the fourth-favorite when the gates open at about 6:55 pm ET this Saturday. So does this mean that the 2021 version is a wide open Derby that could yield a winner such as Mine that Bird or Giacomo? Not likely, but you could still get a decent price (as was the case last year when Baffert's Authentic won at odds of 8-1). So who are the most likely winners? Where will the value lie? Who will be over-bet? And what longshots are the ones to include in your exotics (exactas, trifectas, etc). We now present Part 4 of our preview of the 2021 Run for the Roses: Bombs to Use in Exotics:O Besos (Greg Foley, Marcelino Pedroza) Here is a son of Orb, who won this race eight years ago, who looks like he’s going to relish the 10-furlong distance. In the Louisiana Derby, O Besos was charging hard at the end of the race at odds of almost 30-1. When you look at his speed figures, you have to like the fact that he’s improved with every race. And with anther improvement on Saturday, he could be right there. His #6 post position is perfect for his stalking style of running. Just be careful and watch his odds as there has been quite a bit of buzz about O Besos being a live longshot. You will need 20-1 or higher to have value here. Helium/Soup and Sandwich (Mark Casse, Julien Leparoux/Tyler Gaffalione) There are two lightly-raced Casse runners in the Derby, and both offer intriguing longshot possibilities for the exotics. Soup and Sandwich is by the hottest sire in the country, Into Mischief, out of a Tapit mare named Souper Scoop, so the breeding for the classic distance is not in question. He put in a strong run to finish second to Known Agenda in the Florida Derby, at odds of 12-1. Meanwhile, Helium is a son of up-and-coming sire Ironicus and he switched from the artificial to the dirt in winning the March 21 Tampa Bay Derby. Like his stable mate, Helium has only raced three times but has improved his figures in each race, which indicates he might be peaking now. A victory for either one of these is unlikely but if you’re looking for horses to fill out a juicy exacta or trifecta this is a pair to consider.Super Stock (Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana) When was the last time you saw the Arkansas Derby winner priced at 30-1 on the first Saturday in May? The prestigious race held at Oaklawn Park every April has been one of the most successful stepping stones for the Triple Crown races the last couple of decades. American Pharoah used the Arkansas Derby as a springboard to his Derby, Preakness, and Belmont wins in 2015 (all as the favorite). And yet the Asmussen-trained son of Dialed In named Super Stock is sitting at 30-1 on the morning line after a convincing score less than a month ago in that popular prep race. Asmussen will have his go-to rider aboard Super Stock in Ricardo Santana. The outside position (Super Stock breaks from #18 which is the same Program Number that Authentic had last year when he won) should help Super Stock stay out of trouble as he makes his run to the first turn. He is a "horse for the course" having finished second and third in his only two previous races here at Churchill. Finally, Super Stock is the only horse in the field with as many as eight previous starts coming in, and experience never hurts when you're about to run in the biggest race there is.Good luck, as always...Al McMordieAnd don't miss my Kentucky Derby Longshot Winner, as I've cashed 9 of the last 20 Triple Crown races, including Tiz The Law in the first leg of the Triple Crown last season.

Big Al's Daily Angle: Kentucky Derby, NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 05/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, May 01, 2021

The Saturday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, MLB, and the English Premier League. The 147th Kentucky Derby returns to its traditional first Saturday in May. Post time is 6:57 PM ET on NBC.Ten games are on the NBA docket. The card begins at 7 PM ET, with Charlotte hosting Detroit as a 6.5-point favorite at DraftKings.Golden State visits Houston in the first game of an ESPN doubleheader at 7:30 PM ET. The Warriors are a 7.5-point road favorite at DraftKings. Five NBA games begin at 8 PM ET. New Orleans travels to Minnesota as a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 234.5 (all odds from BetOnline unless indicated otherwise). Miami plays at Cleveland as a 1-point favorite at DraftKings. Atlanta hosts Chicago. Oklahoma City plays at home against Indiana. Memphis visits Orlando as a 10.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 224.5. Dallas hosts Washington at 9 PM ET as a 6-point favorite at DraftKings. Utah plays at home against Toronto at 10 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite at DraftKings. The Los Angeles Clippers are at home against Denver at 10 PM ET in the nightcap on ESPN. The Clippers are a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings. Fifteen games are on the NHL schedule. Boston plays at home against Buffalo at 1 PM ET as a -360 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Tampa Bay visits Detroit at 3 PM ET as a -310 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Six games in the NHL start at 7 PM ET. Washington hosts Pittsburgh as a -106 money line favorite with a total of 6. Philadelphia plays at home against New Jersey as a -138 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The New York Islanders are at home against the New York Rangers as a -125 money line favorite with the total at 5.5. Carolina is at home against Columbus as a -285 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Montreal hosts Ottawa as a -195 money line favorite at DraftKings with a total of 6. Toronto plays at home against Vancouver as a -285 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Four NHL games start at 8 PM ET. Colorado is at home against San Jose as a -295 money line favorite at DraftKings with a total of 6. Nashville plays at home against Dallas as a -103 money line favorite with an over/under of 5. Florida visits Chicago as a -147 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Minnesota hosts St. Louis as a -142 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Three games conclude the NHL card at 10 PM ET. Edmonton plays at home against Calgary as a -125 money line favorite with a total of 6. Vegas visits Arizona as a -200 money line favorite at DraftKings with an over/under of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings are at Anaheim as a -129 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Fifteen games are on the MLB slate. Washington plays at home against Miami at 1:05 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite at DraftKings with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Yankees are at home against Detroit as a -210 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Minnesota is at home against Kansas City as a -123 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Chicago White Sox hosts Cleveland on FS1 at 4:05 PM ET. The White Sox are a -173 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Oakland plays at home against Baltimore at 4:07 PM ET as a -185 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Houston travels to Tampa Bay at 4:10 PM ET as a -119 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Cincinnati is at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Philadelphia plays at home against the New York Mets at 6:05 PM ET as a -111 money line favorite with a total of 8. St. Louis visits Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET as a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Boston travels to Texas at 7:05 PM ET as a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit Milwaukee at 7:10 PM ET as a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Atlanta plays at Toronto at 7:37 PM ET. Arizona hosts Colorado at 8:10 PM ET as a -183 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. San Diego plays at home against San Francisco at 8:40 PM ET as a -163 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Los Angeles Angels travel to Seattle at 9:10 PM ET as a -139 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League continues with four matches. Manchester City travels to Crystal Palace at 7:30 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.75. Brighton and Hove Albion hosts Leeds United at 10 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.25 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Chelsea plays at home against Fulham on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25. Everton is at home against Aston Villa at 3 PM ET on Peacock as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5.

Don’t Crown the Brooklyn Nets the NBA Champions Yet

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

The alliance of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving to a Brooklyn Nets roster that was already a playoff team already made them a strong contender to win the NBA Eastern Conference. Yet when they traded for James Harden earlier in the season to form a “Big Three” of superstars, it was understandable when many observers thought this team was destined to win the NBA championship this season. The later additions of stars like LaMarcus Aldridge and Blake Griffin elevated their collection of players into a super team. However, any coronation of this team is premature. As the month of May begins just a few weeks away from the start of the NBA playoffs, the questions that have dogged this team remain unanswered.First, will the chemistry of this group of players work? The Los Angeles Clippers were considered the super team of destiny last season. Their former head coach Doc Rivers later revealed that the lack of cohesion that never developed between Kawhi Leonard and Paul George with each other and the rest of the team played a big role in their early exit in the Western Conference playoffs to the Denver Nuggets. Developing chemistry on the fly in the playoffs is easier said than done. Yet the Nets’ Big Three of Durant, Harden, and Irving has only played together in seven games this season. Can all three share the ball? Will Harden and Irving defer to Durant as the presumptive alpha of the group? Should Durant be considered the alpha? Will Harden be content being a ball distributing point guard? Will Irving take more personal days? These stars have all said the right things up to this point. They seem to be on the same page of all wanting to just win a championship. But the platitudes of January are not under the same weight of pressure as the urgency these players will encounter if they happen to fall behind, 2-1, in a seven-game playoff series. That is when the chemistry of this group will be tested. The regular season should be building the foundation for this group of players to prepare for the inevitable adversity coming in the playoffs. Instead, this group has dealt with injuries and load management as they await the playoffs. Second, can this team simply outscore their opponents without playing at least decent play on defense? The offense numbers are quite impressive. Brooklyn averages 118.9 points per game. They make 49.4% of their shots and 38.9% of their 3-pointers. They lead the league in offensive efficiency, scoring 118.9 points per 100 possessions. These are numbers with the Big Three playing only seven games together so the ceiling could be even higher. But the defense is an eyesore. Opponents make 46.2% of their shots which is resulting in 114.1 points per game. The Nets have the sixth-worst defensive efficiency in the NBA, with opponents scoring 113.2 points per 100 possessions. Can a defense this suspect survive in the playoffs against the very best teams? Mike D’Antoni’s coaching career has attempted to have his great offensive teams score their way past defensive liabilities, including his time in Houston with Harden. This approach never won a championship. Coincidentally or not, D’Antoni is an assistant coach with this team. Steve Nash is the head coach of this group. He was the point guard for D’Antoni’s Phoenix Suns teams that never reached an NBA Finals. Nash’s strengths were never defensive basketball. He is a rookie head coach, handling a large collection of big egos. It simply does not take much to imagine these circumstances taking a bad turn. Third, will the superstars stay healthy? Proclamations of teams of destiny never take into account the prospect of injuries. Given the recent histories of Durant and Irving, and with Harden’s hamstring issues this season, it may be unrealistic to expect these three players to remain healthy throughout the postseason. On paper, Brooklyn looks formidable. They have looked spectacular at times this season. Yet the challenge of the NBA playoffs is different than the regular season. Those are untraveled waters for the 2021 Nets. Good luck - TDG.

Aaron Rodgers and Nick Sirianni: Secret Soul Mates?

by Hollywood Sports

Friday, Apr 30, 2021

At first glance, it would not seem that Aaron Rodgers and Nick Sirianni would have much in common outside interest in scheming NFL plays on offense. Rodgers is a Super Bowl-winning quarterback destined for the Hall of Fame. Sirianni was the offensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts before flop sweating through his first press conference in a golf shirt as the new head coach for the Philadelphia Eagles. But both individuals have something in common: they have been involved in dramas that reflect the increasing trend of NFL franchises to treat the white-collar management as the superstars of the organization. This is a trend that started in Major League Baseball. General managers began taking their role to be more than just assembling the parts for their managers to manipulate. The movie Moneyball depicts this phenomenon with Brad Pitt’s Billy Beane frustrated with Philip Seymour Hoffman’s Art Howe reluctance to use the players the way in which he wanted. Beane was the hero in that story. He was adventurous rebel thinking outside the box as the underdog running a baseball team that could not extravagantly spend the money that rich teams were able to indulge. Howe was the curmudgeon locked in the old world. Jonah Hill played the role of Paul DePodesta who Beane hires to teach him the secret math taught in the Ivy Leagues that would revolutionize baseball. The secret sauce is dubbed “sabermetrics” in baseball while analyzing statistics in other sports has been given the esoteric label of “analytics.” As I have written elsewhere, the secret math offers capital-T Truth — and those who question it are small-minded dinosaurs. Well, at least that is the impression that some who dabble (and profit) in the sports analytics community tend to frame the issues. An embrace of a deeper appreciation of statistics in football was inevitable, but its growth in football is neatly symbolized by DePodesta leaving the Oakland A’s for the NFL and the Cleveland Browns. When Browns' general manager Sashi Brown traded away many of his veterans to acquire draft choices, it was as if DePodesta had discovered the concept of tanking games in ancient texts at the Harvard library. For many, the Browns’ Super Bowl was inevitable — and it was going to be clear who the heroes would be in that story. Analytics are being embraced by every sport. In the NBA, we see its influence in the Philadelphia 76ers “trust the process” mantra that led to their current superstar duo of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. General manager Daryl Morey was highly influenced by analytics is assembling his Houston Rockets teams that were allergic to any shot that was not at the rim or behind the arc. Morey hired a head coach in Mike D’Antoni who shared this offensive philosophy. Morey now happens to be the GM for the Sixers. The number of championship appearances for the Cleveland Browns, Philadelphia 76ers, and Houston Rockets remains zero. To be fair, there are teams across all the major sports that have invested in analytics to then win championships. The Houston Astros offer the best example in MLB, and the Boston Red Sox won the World Series with an analytics department even after they failed to woo Beane away from Oakland. But then again, it is not as if the use of statistics was invented by the Oakland A’s. Bill Belichick is shrewd with his ability to use statistics to help inform his decisions as head coach and general manager of the New England Patriots. But Belichick does not have a shiny Ivy League degree hanging on his office wall. It is harder to peddle the “Belichick” way on your new statistics website. This brings us back to Aaron Rodgers and Nick Sirianni. Rodgers is in a power struggle with Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst and his hand-picked head coach, Matt LaFleur. Remember that LaFleur was the offensive coordinator of the middling Tennessee Titans offense that was continually flailing away on 4th-and-1s in 2018-19. But LaFleur was buddies with Sean McVay, the new wunderkind who could solve personnel mismatches with the power of his intellect and a nearby whiteboard. Now granted, Gutekunst is no Harvard man. But even a graduate of the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse appreciates the power of pulling the strings from behind his office desk. He could hire LaFleur to “fix” Rodgers — and if the veteran quarterback doesn’t like it, then he would just get another quarterback that LaFleur would scheme-to-success using the new secret sauce. It has been reported that it was Gutekunst who made the unilateral decision to trade up in the first round last year to draft quarterback Jordan Love. Amidst whispers of Love struggling in practices (albeit, in a season impacted by COVID taking away the normal practice routines), LaFleur never elevated him above the third string. The Packers’ management has communicated that Rodgers is expendable. That motivated Rodgers’ rebuttal asking to be traded on the first day of the NFL draft. It was interesting to then observe Gutekunst choosing a defensive player in the first round, an area of need but not a choice that would placate Rodgers. In Philadelphia, general manager Howie Roseman along with highly engaged owner Jeffrey Lurie proved that their Super Bowl-winning head coach, Doug Pederson, was expendable when they fired him after the season. Did one of them set Pederson up by demanding he makes sure Nate Sudfeld got some reps at quarterback, despite the Eagles playing in a close game with Washington late in the season? Sure, Philadelphia was “trusting the process” by tanking, but management (and/or ownership) telling the head coach how to use his players comes straight out of Brad Pitt trading away the first baseman that Philip Seymour Hoffman was playing every day instead of Chris Pratt. It was later revealed that Roseman and Lurie would spend hours berating Pederson after games while demanding he defends the coaching decisions he made during the game. Roseman got his Law Degree at the University of Florida. Lurie was an academic with a doctorate before he finally followed in the footsteps of Michael Corleone to go into the family business to run the Hollywood movie company his grandfather founded. He produced Inside Man. Pederson was a career backup quarterback after a college career at UL-Monroe. Roseman and Lurie lure Nick Sirianni away from Indianapolis who was the offensive coordinator for Frank Reich, who was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles’ Super Bowl triumph. The 39-year-old looked over his head in his first press conference. He was nervous, which is not a crime. But it is also a characteristic of someone likely to be easily intimidated. Sirianni comes from a coaching family who began his coaching career after graduating from Mt. Union where he was a Division-III star. Perhaps it is that experience where he developed the rigor for competition that motivated his Rock-Paper-Scissors zoom duels with his new players? Sirianni may find success in Philadelphia, despite what seems to be a rocky start. What happens in August will matter far more than these initial events. He inherits a hot mess. But it seems evident that Roseman and Lurie hired someone who will take orders. Like in Major League Baseball where Ivy Leaguers have redefined the game to be a battle between strikeouts versus home runs because of The Math — the same Math that discovered that three points count more than two in basketball — the National Football League is slowly being taken over by the suits who know better. Because they have always known better. Just like the Enron guys. They were the smartest guys in the room too. How’s Enron doing lately?Best of luck -- Frank

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