NFL Game Three Home Chalk That Doesn't Walk

by Tom Stryker

Now that the NFL is off and running and each team has a couple of games under their belt, there is hope that things will settle down in the league.  There are always surprises early in the season and we’ve been treated to a few major upsets and a couple of incredible comebacks.  There will likely be more.
 
Thankfully, with the help of my pro football database, the same one that was featured in the December 13th, 2010, issue of the ESPN Insider magazine, I’ve been able to isolate and profit from a number of early season technical situations that have performed very well.  My “NFL Game Three Home Chalk That Doesn’t Walk” system is one that has made my clients and I a great deal of profit over the years.
 
The research I did on this particular situation was pretty basic and simple.  I wanted to see how a 1-1 SU team did at home checking in off a straight up loss.  My gut told me that these teams probably did pretty well.  I couldn’t have been more wrong.  Take a peek at this handicapping gem:  
 
Since 1986, PLAY AGAINST any game three NFL home favorite that owns a 1-1 SU record provided they take the field off a straight up non-division road loss, if they are battling a foe that is competing in their third regular season game.

 36-Year ATS Record = 40-11-2 ATS for 78.4 percent
 
This Week’s Play = DETROIT LIONS

The knee-jerk reaction would be to side with that 1-1 SU host thinking they would bounce back of a road loss.  That simply doesn’t happen.  Last week, after knocking off Green Bay at home in its season opener, Minnesota traveled to Philadelphia on Monday night and dropped a 24-7 decision to the Eagles.  Now, the Purple People Eaters are back in the Twin Cities laying points to a Lions bunch that arrives with steam off a home win and cover over the Commanders.  Our Game Three Home Chalk That Doesn’t Walk system demands that we fade the Vikes in this spot.
 
Good luck with the Lions on Sunday in this huge NFC North battle!

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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