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Ness Notes: Friday, Nov 13

by Larry Ness

Friday, Nov 13, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."Philip Rivers (308 passing yards) outplayed Ryan Tannehill (147 yards) and Indy's top-rated defense shut out the Titans in the second half, leading the Colts to a 34-17 win Thursday night in the first game of Week 10. The Colts moved into a first-place tie with the Titans in the AFC South. Both teams are 6-3 and will meet again Week 12 at Indianapolis. Before getting to my NFL midseason update and Sunday preview, how about a shout out to Rivers? He entered the game with 61,358 passing yards in his 17-year career, needing just four yards to pass Marino. He finished the night 29-of-39 passing for 308 yards, putting him at 61,666 yards for his career. The only other QBs with more passing yards than Rivers are either in the Hall of Fame or will be first-ballot Hall of Famers at some point; Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and record-holder Drew Brees. Rivers is also just the SIXTH quarterback in league history to throw 400 career TD passes and for at least 60,000 passing yards for a career.AFC 2020 midseason update: The KC Chiefs won their final six regular season games in 2019 and then behind Patrick Mahomes and an offense that averaged 39.0 PPG, won three straight playoff games to capture the franchise's second-ever Super Bowl title (first came in the 1969 season). The Chiefs are 8-1 (6-3 ATS) through Week 9 of the 2020 season and this Mahomes 'kid' is proving he may just have a future in this league (2,687 passing yards with 25 TDs and one INT in 329 attempts / QB rating of 115.9). However, as Week 10 dawns, it's the Pittsburgh Steelers who are the NFL's lone team without a loss, opening 8-0 (6-2 ATS). Pittsburgh knows a little about winning Super Bowl titles (Steelers have won SIX) but the team entered 2020 off back-to-back non-playoff seasons. "Big Ben," coming off a season in which he had missed the final 14 games after elbow surgery, has rebounded nicely. He's completing 68.1% for 1,934 yards with 18 TDs and just four INTs (101.8 QB rating). Kudos also goes to the Pittsburgh defense, which is allowing 20.1 PPG (3rd) on 317.4 YPG (6th). Pittsburgh owns a two-game lead over the 6-2 Ravens, who went 14-2 in 2019. Speaking of defense, the Ravens are holding opponents to an NFL-low 17.8 PPG. Questions surround the Ravens this season, as they've failed to come through in losses to KC (31-20) and Pittsburgh (28-24), BOTH at home. QB Lamar Jackson has taken 'the heat' for those losses but with last Sunday's win at Indy, he matched Dan Marino's 25-5 record as a starting QB to open one's career (in the Super Bowl era). The AFC North owns the NFL best combined record of any division, going 21-10-1 (.672) and note that last-place Cincinnati (2-5-1), owns a 6-2 ATS record, same as 8-0 Pittsburgh.The only other NFL team with more than SIX wins is the Buffalo Bills, who are 7-2 but just 4-5 ATS. Looking closer, the team's ATS record should NOT be a surprise, as the Bills have outscored opponents by a meager NINE points on the season! Compare that to the NFL's two eight-game winners. KC owns a league-best plus-103 point differential, while Pittsburgh ranks second at plus-74 points. Still, Bills fans HAVE to be excited, as Buffalo owns a 1 1/2-game lead over the second-place Dolphins (5-3) in the AFC East plus the post-Brady Pats are struggling at 3-5. New England has won 11 straight division titles (17 of the last 19) but Buffalo is 4-0 in division play so far, putting the team in a good position to capture its first AFC East title since 1995. As for the AFC South, the Houston Texans, who have won the division in FOUR of the last five years, are just 2-6. The Colts and Titans, who have already opened Week 10 play last night, are currently tied atop the division at 6-3 (see recap above).On to the NFC: San Francisco, Green Bay and New Orleans all went 13-3 in 2019. The 49ers and Packers earned the top-two seeds (via tiebreakers) and met in the NFC championship game, with the Niners crushing the Packers, 37-20 (the game was a no-contest, with San Francisco leading 27-0 at the half). The 49ers led the Chiefs 20-10 midway through the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl but KC 'exploded' for 21 points in a five-minute span to win by 11 points. Here in 2020, while the Packers and Saints each sit atop their respective divisions at 6-2, the injury-riddled 49ers are 4-5, which leaves them in last-place in the NFC West. The West owns a collective 20-13 (.606), second to only the AFC North's mark (see above), as Seattle's 6-2 mark claims the top-spot, while the Cards and Rams are just one game back at 5-3. The Packers are 1 1/2-games up on the 5-4 Bears in the North, while the Saints are just barely ahead of the 6-3 Bucs in the South, they are 3-0 in division play, including 2-0 against the Bucs! That leaves just the NFC East, which has reclaimed its one-time title as the "NFC Least" in 2020. None of the four teams own a winning record, as the division checks in with an NFL-worst 9-24-1 (.279) record. The 3-4-1 Eagles, who won the division at 9-7 in 2019, are again atop the division, followed by 2-6 Washington plus the 2-7 Cowboys and Giants. All four teams have been outscored by their opponents, with the division checking in with a collective minus-191 point differential (NFC West has the best point differential of any division at plus-144). NFC East teams are 14-20 ATS but it could be worse if not for the 2-7 Giants checking in at 6-3 ATS, somewhat mitigating the Cowboys' NFL-worst ATS mark of 1-8.Sunday's Week 10: The Chiefs (8-1 / 6-3 ATS) are on their bye week, as are the Cowboys (2-7 / 1-8 ATS), Falcons (3-6 / 4-5 ATS) and Jets (0-9 / 2-7 ATS). The NFL's lone unbeaten team, the 8-0 Steelers (6-2 ATS) will host the 2-5-1 Bengals, who despite their record, match the Steelers with a 6-2 ATS mark. "Big Ben" has not been able to practice this week (close COVID contact) but Pittsburgh is prepping as if he will play. Pittsburgh is favored by seven points and the over/under is 46 1/2. The SNF matchup features the 6-2 Ravens, playing at the 3-5 Pats. This would have been a 'classic' matchup in 2019 but "NOT so much" in 2020. Baltimore is favored by seven points and the over/under is 43 1/2. The 7-2 Bills are in the Arizona desert to play the 5-3 Cards, a game which features a QB showdown between Josh Allen (2,587 passing yards and a 19-5 TD/INT ratio plus 241 yards rushing with 5 TDs) vs Kyler Murray (2,130 passing yards and a 16-7 TD/INT ratio plus 543 yards rushing with 8 TDs). The Cards are favored by 2 1/2-points and the over/under is 56 1/2. 6-2 Seattle is hoping to extend its division lead over the 5-3 Rams in the NFC West when the teams meet in LA (Rams are a two-point choice and the over/under is 54 1/2). Lastly, the 49ers and Saints each went 13-3 in 2019 but it's a 'tale of two cities' in 2020, as the 4-5 Niners are in last-place in the NFC West, while the 6-2 Saints sit atop the NFC South after earning a season sweep of the Bucs with last Sunday's 38-3 rout. The Saints are favored by 10 points and the over/under is 49.Good luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Nov 13, 2020

Three games in college football headline the Friday sports card.Florida Atlantic travels to play Miami to play Florida International at 7 PM ET. The Owls have won two straight games to raise their record to 3-1 with their 10-6 victory over Western Kentucky as a 6.5-point favorite. Redshirt Nick Tronti completed just 7 of 16 passes for 109 yards in the defensive battle. The former Indiana transfer became the starting quarterback in August when a two-year starter, Chris Robison, was dismissed from the team.First-year head coach Willie Taggart inherited nine starters from Lane Kiffin’s group last season that finished 11-3 after their 52-28 victory over SMU in the Boca Raton Bowl. Taggart did not have the benefit of any spring practices given COVID after being terminated from his job at Florida State last year. The lone loss for Florida Atlantic was a 20-9 setback at Marshall three weeks ago. This contest begins a stretch of three-straight road games for the Owls.FIU returns to action after they last played on October 23rd, where they were upset at home by Jacksonville State by a 19-10 score as a 10-point favorite. The Panthers have had five games canceled due to COVID this fall. Redshirt freshman quarterback Stone Norton completed only 5 of 14 passes for 66 yards in the loss three weeks ago. FIU had the ball for only 17:44 minutes of that game. The Panthers have ten starters back from the team that finished 6-7 last year. They ended the year with a 34-26 loss to Arkansas State in the Camellia Bowl in the third season under head coach Butch Davis. The former Miami Hurricanes’ head coach did not have the benefit of spring practices with this team because of COVID. Florida Atlantic is a 9-point road favorite with the total set at 41 (all odds from BetOnline). The CBS Sports Network has the broadcast at 7 PM ET.Minnesota host Iowa on a Friday night in a rivalry that goes back to 1891. Since 1935, these two teams have played for the Floyd of Rosedale trophy. With both teams beginning their Big Ten seasons with 0-2 records before winning last week, this is a critical game for both of these programs. Iowa is just a few plays away from being 3-0 this season. They opened up with a 24-20 loss at Purdue before losing narrowly at home last week to Northwestern by a 21-20 score. The Hawkeyes earned their first win of the season last week with a 49-7 victory at home over Michigan State. Head coach Kirk Ferentz returned 12 starters in his twenty-second year with the program from the group that finished 10-3 last season after their 49-24 win over USC in the Holiday Bowl. Despite the disappointing start, Iowa still has designs on winning the Big Ten West to earn a shot at the Big Ten championship game. Minnesota returned 13 starters from the team that finished 11-2 with a 31-24 victory over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. Expectations were very high for head coach P.J. Fleck in his fourth year with the program. The Golden Gophers opened their season with a disappointing 25-point loss at home to Michigan. Minnesota then traveled to Maryland the next week, where they lost a nail biter by a 45-44 score. The Golden Gophers bounced back last week with a 41-14 victory at Illinois as a 7.5-point favorite. Junior quarterback Tanner Morgan was reliable under center by completing 17 of 27 passes for 216 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Morgan completed 66% of his passes last year for 3253 yards with 30 touchdowns while averaging 10.2 yards-per-attempt. Minnesota was led by junior running back Mo Ibrahim, who ran the ball 30 times for 224 yards and four touchdowns. Ibrahim has 571 rushing yards this season on 97 carries. His 190.3 rushing yards-per-game average leads the nation. The winner of this game remains alive to win the Big Ten West, while the loser will have to pick up the pieces to become bowl eligible to salvage their season. Iowa is a 3-point road favorite with a total of 58. FS1 has the broadcast starting at 7 PM ET.Cincinnati hosts East Carolina at 7:30 PM ET. The Bearcats won their first six games of the season after their 38-10 victory against Houston as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Junior quarterback Desmond Ridder completed 17 of 27 passes for 162 yards with a touchdown and an interception to lead his team to victory. He also added 103 rushing yards with another three touchdowns from his 12 rushes. Fourth-year head coach Luke Fickell has 15 starters back from the team that finished 11-3 last season with a 38-6 victory over Boston College in the Birmingham Bowl. Cincinnati ranks seventh in the AP poll this week with aspirations of making the college football playoffs. The Bearcats are 27-point favorites with an over/under of 56. ESPN2 broadcasts the game at 7:30 PM ET.

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NCAA Saturday Night Football: Wisconsin/Michigan Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Nov 13, 2020

The Saturday night college football showdown on ABC involves two teams from the Big Ten battling two very different levels of adversity. Michigan has lost two games in a row after opening its season with an encouraging 49-24 victory at a ranked Minnesota team. But the Wolverines were flat the following week in hosting in-state rival, Michigan State, coming off an embarrassing upset loss at home to Rutgers. The Spartans left Ann Arbor with a 27-24 victory as a 23-point underdog. Perhaps still shellshocked from that loss, the Wolverines traveled to Bloomington last week to face an upstart Indiana team that had already upset Penn State. The Hoosiers dominated in a 38-21 upset victory as a 4.5-point underdog. That leaves Michigan returning home with a 1-2 record and searching for answers.What is happening to the Wolverines’ program in the sixth season under head coach Jim Harbaugh? Michigan returned nine starters from the team that finished 9-4 last season after getting pounded in their final two games against Ohio State and Alabama. Redshirt junior quarterback Dylan McCaffrey then left the program in the fall. Soon after, wide receiver Nico Collins and cornerback Ambry Thomas opted-out of the season to prepare for the NFL draft. Those two players were probably the top-two NFL prospects on the roster. The departures have left the Wolverines young and inexperienced. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Joe Milton has not been the problem for this team. He is completing 60.7% of his passes after three games for 869 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions while averaging 8.1 yards-per-attempt. The 6’5", 245-lb signal-caller has also rushed for 102 yards with a touchdown in 25 carries. There was speculation that McCaffrey left the program because Milton had passed him on the depth chart in the summer, where he spent quarantine time practicing in Ann Arbor with a handful of teammates. Michigan lacked balance on offense last week as they ran the ball only 18 times for 13 yards. Yet falling behind by a 24-7 halftime score to the Hoosiers explains why the Wolverines abandoned their running game. Many of the problems with this team fall squarely on the decline of their defense. Defensive coordinator Don Brown’s unit allowed 20.7 points-per-game last season while holding their opponents to 307.2 yards-per-game, which ranked 11th in the nation. Michigan is allowing 29.7 points-per-game this year, with opponents generating 411.7 yards-per-game. The loss of Thomas has left the Wolverines inexperienced at both cornerback positions, which is where opposing offenses are taking full advantage. Michigan has allowed 665 passing yards in their last two games. Wisconsin's biggest challenge so far this season has been dealing with COVID. The Badgers convincingly won their opening game with a 45-7 victory against Illinois. With senior quarterback Jack Coan out indefinitely with a foot injury, redshirt freshman Graham Mertz stepped-up to complete 20 of 21 passes for 248 yards along with five touchdown passes in the victory. However, he tested positive for COVID the next day, which began a cavalcade of positive tests inside the program, which included sixth-year head coach Paul Chryst.The team has been idle the last two weeks, with games against Nebraska and Purdue canceled. Seventeen players and another 13 staff members have tested positive for COVID since the victory over the Fighting Illini, with four players still in quarantine as of Tuesday. Mertz has returned to practice this week, but he remains questionable to start due to what Chryst describes as dependent on his level of preparation for this game. Wisconsin returned 15 starters from the team that finished 10-4 last season after a 28-27 loss to Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The Badgers have been a trendy CFB playoff semifinal pick given their relatively easy path to the Big Ten championship game. Those heightened expectations assumed that Coan would eventually return to the field under center (although Mertz is the highest-rated quarterback recruit in program history). Wisconsin now faces the additional hurdle of playing at least six regular-season to be even eligible to play in the conference championship game given Big Ten rules in-place this season.Michigan is outside the top-25 rankings for the first time since the end of the 2017 season. Wisconsin ranks 13th in the latest AP poll. The Badgers dominated the Wolverines at the line of scrimmage last year in a 35-14 victory in Madison as a 3-point favorite. Wisconsin is a 4.5-point road favorite at BetOnline, with the total set at 54. The ABC broadcast begins at 7:30 PM ET.

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NCAA Friday Night Football: Minnesota/Iowa Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Nov 13, 2020

Minnesota host Iowa on a Friday night in a rivalry that goes back to 1891. Since 1935, these two teams have played for the Floyd of Rosedale trophy. With both teams beginning their Big Ten seasons with 0-2 records before winning last week, this is a critical game for both of these programs. Iowa is just a few plays away from being 3-0 this season. They opened up with a 24-20 loss at Purdue before losing narrowly at home last week to Northwestern by a 21-20 score. The Hawkeyes earned their first win of the season last week with a 49-7 victory at home over Michigan State. Head coach Kirk Ferentz got his team back-to-basics against the Spartans by rushing the ball 41 times for 226 yards. Redshirt sophomore quarterback Spencer Petras threw the ball 89 times in his first two career starts before completing 15 of 27 passes last week for 167 yards with a touchdown. Iowa is scoring 29.7 points-per-game while averaging 386.0 yards-per-game. The Hawkeyes’ defense and special teams broke open the game last week. Holding a 21-0 lead in the second quarter, Iowa’s special teams extended that lead with a 54-yard punt return for a touchdown. The Hawkeyes’ defense then scored on a 54-yard interception return to go into halftime with a commanding 35-0 lead. Iowa played their best defensive game of the season last week with three interceptions, two sacks, and five quarterback hurries. The Hawkeyes are allowing only 17.3 points-per-game along with just 315.0 yards-per-game. Ferentz returned 12 starters in his twenty-second year with the program from the group that finished 10-3 last season after their 49-24 win over USC in the Holiday Bowl. Despite the disappointing start, Iowa still has designs on winning the Big Ten West to earn a shot at the Big Ten championship game. Minnesota returned 13 starters from the team that finished 11-2 with a 31-24 victory over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. Expectations were very high for head coach P.J. Fleck in his fourth year with the program. The Golden Gophers opened their season with a disappointing 25-point loss at home to Michigan. Minnesota then traveled to Maryland the next week, where they lost a nail biter by a 45-44 score. The Golden Gophers bounced back last week with a 41-14 victory at Illinois as a 7.5-point favorite. Junior quarterback Tanner Morgan was reliable under center by completing 17 of 27 passes for 216 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Morgan completed 66% of his passes last year for 3253 yards with 30 touchdowns while averaging 10.2 yards-per-attempt. Minnesota was led by junior running back Mo Ibrahim, who ran the ball 30 times for 224 yards and four touchdowns. Ibrahim has 571 rushing yards this season on 97 carries. His 190.3 rushing yards-per-game average leads the nation. Minnesota is scoring 36.3 points-per-game while averaging 444.3 yards-per-game, which is the top mark in the Big Ten West. However, the Gophers’ defense has been a work-in-progress after losing five of their top six tacklers from the group that ranked tenth in the nation last year by allowing only 306.6 yards-per-game. Minnesota is allowing 480.0 yards-per-game this season along with 36.0 points-per-game. The winner of this game remains alive to win the Big Ten West, while the loser will have to pick up the pieces to become bowl eligible to salvage their season. BetAnySports has Iowa as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 58. FS1 has the broadcast starting at 7 PM ET.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA and NFL Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Nov 12, 2020

Two football games headline the Thursday sports card. First place in the AFC South will be on the line for Thursday Night Football in a showdown between the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans.Tennessee claimed first place in the division on Sunday with their 24-17 victory at home against Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite. That win snapped a two-game losing streak and raised their record to a 6-2 mark. The Titans won that game despite being outgained by -147 net yards. Tennessee scored on a 63-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown that turned out to be the difference in the game. Indianapolis saw their record drop to a 5-3 mark on Sunday with their 24-10 loss at home to Baltimore as a 1-point favorite. The Colts outgained the Ravens by +139 net yards but could not overcome a 65-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown scored by the Baltimore defense. Indianapolis’ offense was only on the field for 26:34 minutes of the game. These two teams split their two divisional meetings last year, with the road team winning in both instances. The Colts upset the Titans in Nashville on September 15th by a 19-17 score before Tennessee returned the favor in Indianapolis on December 1st with their 31-17 victory. BookMaker lists Indianapolis as a 1-point favorite with the total set at 48.5. The kickoff on Fox and the NFL Network is at 8:20 PM ET.The Thursday night college football clash on ESPN features two teams for the Mountain West Conference. Colorado State evened their record at 1-1 last Thursday with their 34-24 upset victory at home against Wyoming as a 3-point underdog. The Rams opened up the scoring in the first quarter with a 30-yard interception return for a touchdown. Colorado State forced three turnovers against the Cowboys, which helped them overcome getting outgained by -123 yards. The Rams gave up 465 yards to Wyoming yet were often bailed out by their six sacks and 13 tackles-for-loss that they generated. Senior quarterback Patrick O’Brien completed 18 of 26 passes for 255 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. He added another touchdown on the ground. The Rams gained only 342 yards against the Cowboys, but they only had the ball for 26:27 minutes. Colorado State averaged 5.42 yards-per-play last week. Boise State was embarrassed in a 51-17 loss at home to BYU last Friday. Things began going south for the Broncos when quarterback Jack Sears was knocked out of that game in the first quarter with a concussion. The junior transfer from USC had started hot by completing all four of his passes for 41 yards. He was under center because the starter last year, Hank Bachmeier, has been out with a COVID-related issue. True freshman, Cade Fennegan, was forced into duty against the Cougars’ defense. He completed 15 of 26 passes for 182 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. However, he could not overcome a BYU offense that racked up 574 yards against the Boise State defense that pulled away in the second half of that game after going into halftime with a 16-3 lead. Head coach Bryan Harsin has been mum about the quarterback status for this game. Privacy reasons preclude the discussion of Bachmeier’s health situation after he did not make the trip to Air Force two weeks ago. Sears is in the concussion protocol program. If Fennegan makes his first career start, he will not have the services of running back George Halani, who is doubtful with the knee injury that kept him out of the BYU game. The sophomore rushed for 1014 yards while earning the MWC Freshman of the Year award last season. BetAnySports lists Boise State as a 14.5-point favorite with the total set at 61.5. The ESPN broadcast starts at 8 PM ET. 

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Ness Notes: Thursday Nov 12

by Larry Ness

Thursday, Nov 12, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."The 5-3 Indianapolis Colts visit Nashville on Thursday night to take on the 6-2 Tennessee Titans. The Titans can open a two-game lead in the division with a win, while the Colts can move into a first-place tie with the Titans by winning. The teams meet again at Indianapolis in Week 12. The Colts signed QB Philip Rivers in the offseason as a FA and he's been solid but it's the team's defense that's been the key, as the Colts are allowing a league-low 290.0 YPG and 20.0 PPG (3rd-best). The Titans entered the season off their great playoff run of last season (won at New England and Baltimore before losing at KC in the AFC championship game) and got off to a 5-0 start. However, back-to-back losses followed, before last Sunday's 24-17 win over the Bears. The game is a pick'em and the over/under is 48 1/2. MACtion Part 2: Buffalo and Kent moved to 2-0 in the MAC East with wins on Tuesday night and last night, it was Central and Western Michigan winning to move to 2-0 in the West. The Chippewas dominated from the start, taking a 26-0 halftime lead on their way to a 40-10 at Northern Illinois. In stark contrast, Toledo never trailed at Western Michigan and when it went up 38-28 with 2:54 left in the game, it seemed almost a sure thing that Toledo would be off to a 2-0 start. However, the Broncos closed to 38-34 with an 11-play, 70-yard TD with 45 seconds remaining. Needing to recover an onsides kick, WMU did just that and then, with 17 seconds left, got a 9-yard TD pass and converted the extra-point to win 41-38. The MAC is now off until Next Tuesday and Wednesday, again playing three games each night. The "marquee" matchup will be Western Michigan at Central Michigan (Nov 18) with the winner moving to 3-0 and gaining the tiebreaker edge in what is just a six-game schedule. After next week's Tuesday and Wednesday games, the MAC will transition to Saturdays for the final three weeks.CFB Weekend: There are no top-25 matchups set for this weekend, although EIGHT of the AP's top-10 were scheduled to play (No. 4 Clemson and No. 8 BYU had open dates). However, note that the "operative" phrase in my first sentence is "scheduled to play." As of Thursday morning, No. 1 Alabama's game at LSU, No. 3 Ohio State's game at Maryland and No. 5 Texas A&M's game at Tennessee have all been postponed or canceled. Throw in No. 12 Georgia at Missouri plus  No. 24 Auburn at Miss St and FIVE ranked teams have 'lost' games because of COVID-19 issues. Three more games, Memphis at Navy, Air Force at Wyoming and UL-Monroe at Arkansas St have also been postponed or canceled. That's EIGHT games so far (it is only Thursday), following 10 games suffering similar fates last weekend. And so it goes in this "time of COVID."Higher ranked teams will remain 17-3 SU and 16-4 ATS when facing a lower-ranked opponent. As documented here each week, the dynamic of ranked teams against unranked opponents has seen markedly different results. Ranked teams did go a perfect 14-0 SU against unranked opponents last week but still could NOT win more than 50 percent ATS, going 6-7-1. The numbers Y-T-D stand 82-22 SU (.788) but just 42-60-2 ATS (.412). We are still waiting for that "regression to the mean," in which ranked teams start covering against unranked ones. This weekend features 14 games between ranked and unranked teams. That includes FIVE of the nation's top-10 teams, the first being No. 7 Cincinnati hosting East Carolina on Friday. The Bearcats are the highest-ranked Group of 5 team and a "look back" at Wednesday Notes sheds some light on that situation. Cincinnati has won 18 straight at home as it welcomes a 1-5 East Carolina team to Nippert Stadium (Cincy is favored by 27 1/2-points). No. 2 Notre Dame, fresh off its 47-40 double-OT win over Clemson, will put its 13-game winning streak (longest active among FBS teams) on the line when the Fighting Irish visit Chestnut Hill to take on Boston College. Notre Dame has to be careful of a let down but maybe BC's near upset at Clemson on Oct 31 (Tigers barely edged the Eagles 34-28) has gotten Notre Dame's attention. The Fighting Irish are favored by 13 1/2-points. No. 6 Florida also has to be wary of a let down, as the Gators welcome Arkansas to "The Swamp," fresh off their 44-28 win over Georgia. Florida is favored by 17 1/2-points. No. 9 Miami-Fl barely escaped with a 44-41 win at NC State on Nov 6 and plays at Va Tech. The ACC got rid of its two divisions this season (plus added Notre Dame), so the championship game will feature the teams with the league's top-two records. Currently, Notre Dame is 7-0, Clemson 7-1 and Miami 6-1. The 'Canes are a two-point underdog. No. 10 Indiana is ranked in the AP's top-10 for the first time since 1969 and will play at Michigan St, a team which has lost 38-27 to Rutgers at home as a 10-point favorite, won at 27-24 Michigan as a four-TD underdog and lost 49-7 at Iowa. Indiana is favored by seven points.NINE more ranked teams play unranked opponents, including 2020's two 'Cinderella' programs, No. 15 Coastal Carolina and No. 22 Liberty (both are 7-0). The Chanticleers are 5-1-1 ATS and play at 4-3 Troy, where they are favored by 10 1/2-points. Liberty is 5-2 ATS and will host Western Carolina, which is an FCS school (Flames are favored by 33 points). NFL midseason update and Week 10 preview coming in Friday's Notes.Good luck...Larry

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NCAA Thursday Night Football: Boise State/Colorado State Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Nov 12, 2020

The Thursday night college football clash on ESPN features two teams for the Mountain West Conference. Colorado State evened their record at 1-1 last Thursday with their 34-24 upset victory at home against Wyoming as a 3-point underdog. The Rams opened up the scoring in the first quarter with a 30-yard interception return for a touchdown. Colorado State forced three turnovers against the Cowboys, which helped them overcome getting outgained by -123 yards. The Rams gave up 465 yards to Wyoming yet were often bailed out by their six sacks and 13 tackles-for-loss that they generated. The Rams have eight starters back along with seven of their top ten tacklers from a unit that ranked 52nd in the nation last season by allowing 377.4 yards-per-game. Colorado State has a new defensive coordinator in Chuck Heater this season, who returned to the program after serving in the same capacity in 1991 and 1992. Heater was also the defensive coordinator with first-year head coach Steve Addazio when they both were previously at Boston College. Heater moved the defense back to a 4-3 scheme from the 3-4 formation that the Rams have played in the last two seasons. The impact has been immediately seen in their run defense as they rank 24th in the nation in limiting their opponents to 114.0 rushing yards-per-game. Colorado State also ranks fourth in the FBS by holding opposing rushers to 2.5 yards-per-carry.Senior quarterback Patrick O’Brien completed 18 of 26 passes for 255 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. He added another touchdown on the ground. The Rams gained only 342 yards against the Cowboys, but they only had the ball for 26:27 minutes. Colorado State averaged 5.42 yards-per-play last week. Seven starters are back from the unit that ranked 34th in the nation by averaging 437.4 yards-per-game. O’Brien passed for 2803 yards last year in leading an attack that averaged 305.3 passing yards-per-game. The Rams had only six winning seasons in 19 years after their 4-8 record last year. The program moved on from Mike Bobo after five years as they tapped Adazzio after his seven years at Boston College, where he compiled a 44-44 record. Colorado State opened this season two weeks ago with a 38-17 loss at Fresno State.Boise State was embarrassed in a 51-17 loss at home to BYU last Friday. Things began going south for the Broncos when quarterback Jack Sears was knocked out of that game in the first quarter with a concussion. The junior transfer from USC had started hot by completing all four of his passes for 41 yards. He was under center because the starter last year, Hank Bachmeier, has been out with a COVID-related issue. True freshman, Cade Fennegan, was forced into duty against the Cougars’ defense. He completed 15 of 26 passes for 182 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. However, he could not overcome a BYU offense that racked up 574 yards against the Boise State defense that pulled away in the second half of that game after going into halftime with a 16-3 lead. Head coach Bryan Harsin has been mum about the quarterback status for this game. Privacy reasons preclude the discussion of Bachmeier’s health situation after he did not make the trip to Air Force two weeks ago. Sears is in the concussion protocol program. If Fennegan makes his first career start, he will not have the services of running back George Halani, who is doubtful with the knee injury that kept him out of the BYU game. The sophomore rushed for 1014 yards while earning the MWC Freshman of the Year award last season. Wide receiver Khalil Shakir caught ten balls for 139 yards with two touchdowns last week. He is averaging 117.3 receiving yards-per-game with four touchdowns this year. Boise State returned 11 starters from the team that finished 12-2 last year in Harsin’s sixth year with the program. The Broncos opened this season with victories over Utah State and Air Force before their loss to BYU. Boise State won the meeting between these two teams last year in Fort Collins by a 31-24 score. BetAnySports lists Boise State as a 14.5-point favorite with the total set at 61.5. The ESPN broadcast starts at 8 PM ET.

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NFL Stock Rising and Falling: Week 10

by Sean Murphy

Thursday, Nov 12, 2020

We're rolling following a perfect 5-0 premium NFL card in Week 9. Now our attention shifts to Week 10 as we take a look at three teams on the rise and three teams on the decline entering Sunday's action.Stock RisingHouston TexansSurprisingly enough, there's a lot to like when it comes to the Texans right now. Since the firing of head coach Bill O'Brien they've shown some signs of life, particularly on the offensive side of the football where QB DeShaun Watson looks a whole lot more comfortable. Houston's schedule remains fairly soft the rest of the month, with a trip to Cleveland this week followed by a home date with the Patriots and a road game against Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.New York GiantsDon't look now but the Giants might actually be building something positive under Joe Judge. They followed up a nice effort in a close loss to the Bucs on Monday Night Football with a come-from-behind win in Washington last Sunday. The New York defense in particular has risen to the occasion in recent weeks and draws another favorable matchup with the inconsistent Eagles at home this Sunday afternoon. If the New York offense can show a pulse, this could be a play-on team down the stretch.Las Vegas RaidersThe Raiders were a 'tough out' last season and they look like even more than that here in 2020 as they're coming off another divisional win last Sunday, improving to 5-3 in the process. Is Derek Carr a legitimate top-level NFL quarterback? That certainly appears to be the case here in 2020 as he's thrown 16 touchdowns compared to only two interceptions - a massive improvement over previous campaigns. Las Vegas draws another winnable matchup this Sunday as it hosts a reeling Denver squad.Stock FallingTampa Bay BuccaneersWhat a difference a week makes. The Bucs got their doors blown off in front of a national audience on Sunday Night Football, falling to 0-2 against the division-rival Saints. The good news is, they draw a favorable bounce-back matchup with the Panthers this Sunday. However, it remains to be seen whether QB Tom Brady can get back in sync with his offense, which perhaps had its chemistry shaken up with the arrival of WR Antonio Brown last week.San Francisco 49ersThe injury bug took hold of the 49ers prior to the start of the season and really hasn't let go. It is quickly becoming a lost season for the Niners and this doesn't look like the week to turn things around with a trip to New Orleans to face the surging Saints. They won't get another home game until December 7th, when they host the Bills.Chicago BearsI think most bettors already knew the Bears were a fraudulent 5-1 team earlier this season but now we've seen it play out on the field as they've dropped three straight games, scoring a pitiful 50 points in the process. The fact that they're the underdog in this Monday's home date with the 3-5 Vikings says a lot. Until Chicago can figure out how to move the football consistently on offense, it will continue to struggle mightily to find its way into the win column. 

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The Masters Tournament: 2020 Preview

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Nov 11, 2020

For the first time in the 84 editions of the Masters Tournament, the event will take place in November. The Azalea flowers will not be in bloom, yet the weather will be similar to the traditional early April weekend in Augusta, Georgia, with temperatures expected to be in the high-70s. The raining this week in Augusta is likely to continue through Thursday's opening round and perhaps into the weekend. Given COVID-restrictions, there will not be any patrons watching the event at the Augusta National Golf Course. The favorite this week is Bryson DeChambeau at +650 odds to put on the green jacket on Sunday (all odds from BookMaker). DeChambeau was the best player on the PGA Tour after the restart this summer with seven straight top-eight finishes that culminated with a victory at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in early July. DeChambeau finished tied for 4th place at the PGA Championship before a disappointing 22nd place that Tour Championship the next month in September. However, DeChambeau fulfilled his vast potential two weeks later by winning the U.S. Open with his 6-under par score that dominated a field where no other golfer finished with a score in the red. DeChambeau plans to use his extraordinary driving power to slam through this challenging course to set up short approach shots. However, Augusta National will present the ultimate challenge for this strategy, given its idiosyncrasies on the fairways and greens. The Masters has been a tournament that rewards course experience. DeChambeau has only shot three of his twelve career rounds at Augusta under par. Dustin Johnson is the second favorite at +750 odds. Johnson followed up his tie for second place at the PGA Championship by winning the Tour Championship. Johnson then finished tied for 6th place at the U.S. Open at Winged Foot Golf Club. Johnson then dealt with the COVID diagnosis that kept him out a month, but he returned last week with a tie for second place at the Houston Open. Johnson has finished in the top-ten in four of his previous five Masters, including a tie for second place last year. Rory McIlroy is the third favorite at +850 odds in his sixth attempt to earn a career grand slam. In 11 trips to Augusta, McIlroy has five top-ten finishes with another four top-25 results. Since becoming a father, McIroy has not finished below 21st place. Yet McIlroy has not placed in the top-five in 12 straight events, including a tie for 8th place at the Tour Championship and a tie for 8th place at the U.S. Open. McIlroy finished tied for 17th place two weeks ago at Sherwood. Jon Rahm has +1176 odds to win this week. He comes into this tournament off a tie for second place two weeks ago at the Zozo Championship at Sherwood. After winning the Memorial this summer, Rahm finished tied for 13th place at the PGA Championship before a fourth-place result at the Tour Championship. Rahm then settled for a disappointing 23rd place at the U.S. Open.  At a practice round, Rahm celebrated his 26th birthday on Tuesday by hitting, perhaps, the most remarkable hole-in-one ever, by skipping the ball along the water in front of the 16th green before it rolled into the hole.  Over the last year, Rahm has six victories along with another five second-place finishes since his tie for ninth place at the Masters last year. Justin Thomas rounds out the top-five favorites at +1176 odds. Thomas has improved his score in each of his five trips to Augusta. His last three rounds at the Masters in the 60s. Thomas concluded the 2019-20 season with a tie for second place at the Tour Championship. He then finished in a tie for 8th place at the U.S. Open before off a tie for second place with Rahm at the Zozo Championship two weeks ago. Tiger Woods has +3253 odds as the defending champion to win his sixth Masters championship. It has been a long time since Woods’ triumphant victory in April of 2019. Woods’ best efforts since then was a top-ten finish last January at Torrey Pines and a tie for 37th place at the PGA Championship in August. The tournament tees off at 7 AM ET on Thursday. ESPN and CBS will split the broadcast. ESPN provides live coverage from 1-5:30 PM ET on Thursday and Friday. CBS broadcasts from 1-5 PM ET on Saturday and then 10 AM-3 PM ET on Sunday. 

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Ness Notes: Wednesday, Nov 11

by Larry Ness

Wednesday, Nov 11, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."A three-game MACtion card opened the new CFB week on Tuesday. All three favorites won, going 2-1 ATS. Ohio didn't come close to covering in its unimpressive 24-10 win over Akron, as the Bobcats were favored by about four TDs. Ohio was outgained 435-to-307 yards by Akron but survived by winning the TO 'battle' 3-0. The Zips lost their 19th straight game, with their last win coming 17-10 at home against Central Michigan on Oct 27, 2018. Kent moved to 2-0 with a 62-24 road win over Bowling Green (0-2), outgaining the Falcons 667-365 in yards The Golden Flashes passed for yards (five TDs) and ran for 295 yards. Buffalo never 'broke a sweat' at home against defending MAC champion Miami-Ohio, routing the RedHawks 42-10. The Bulls had 556 yards (353 yards passing and four TDs from QB Vantrease and 203 yards rushing), while Miami had just 258 yards.MACtion Part 2 is Wednesday, with three more games. Eastern Michigan is at Ball St in a matchup of 0-1 teams (). 1-0 Central Michigan won the West last season and looks to move to 2-0 by winning at 0-1 Northern Illinois, where the Chippewas are favored by . The "game of the week" in the MAC is Toledo at Western Michigan. Both have opened 1-0 and the winner obviously moves to 2-0 and in a six-game schedule, would also give them a tiebreaker edge (Broncos are favored). Getting back to Central Michigan, beating Northern Illinois is a "must win," as the Chippewas would be tied at 2-0 with the Toledo/Western Michigan winner. Central Michigan hosts Western Michigan next Wednesday and plays at Toledo on Dec 12 in its regular season finale. ALL games during a six-game regular season matter GREATLY for MAC teams in the division 'hunt.'The first set of College Football Playoff rankings won't be released until Nov 24 and an emerging trend could have the committee asking themselves the following question. How do undefeated Independent and Group of 5 teams fit into the 2020 playoff hunt? Entering the current week, excluding conferences that have played just one game (Pac-12 and MAC), there are 13 remaining unbeaten teams in the FBS (I'm also not counting No. 14 Wisconsin, which has played just one game). The list includes Power-5 schools like No. 1 Alabama (6-0), No. 2 Notre Dame (a traditional Independent playing in the ACC for the 2020 season) and No. 3 Ohio State (3-0), but also Big Ten 'surprises' like No. 10 Indiana (3-0), No. 23 Northwestern (3-0) and unranked Purdue (2-0). The Wildcats and Boilermakers play next week and the Buckeyes and Hoosiers play on Nov. 21. That's six unbeaten schools but that number will be down to four after the above-mentioned Big Ten matchups the next two weeks (Wisconsin could also be 'alive'). However, the other SEVEN unbeaten schools are either Independents or in the Group of 5. That list includes No. 7 Cincinnati (6-0), No. 8 BYU (8-0), No. 15 Coastal Carolina (7-0), No. 16 Marshall (6-0), No. 22 Liberty (7-0), Nevada (3-0) and San Jose State (3-0). 8-0 BYU and 7-0 Liberty are both Independents and both could finish undefeated. However, the Cougars have by far the best chance, as they will be heavily favored in their last two games against North Alabama and San Diego State. Liberty plays at 7-0 Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt) in its regular-season finale on Dec. 12 plus also must play at NC State on Nov 21. I question BYU's strength of schedule and have to believe that the AAC's Cincinnati (ranked 7th) has the best chance at a breakthrough. The Bearcats are scoring 39.3 PPG and allowing just 11.7 PPG. Cincy has beaten Army 24-10 (Army was ranked 22nd at the time and is 6-1 on the season) plus crushed SMU on the road, 42-13. The Mustangs are 7-1 and currently ranked 19th. The Bearcats get 1-5 East Carolina this Saturday but then play three straight on the road, including at UCF, a team averaging 45.0 PPG. The Bearcats will likely have to "run the table" (which would include winning the AAC championship game), to have ANY chance to crack the 'Final Four.'All eyes will turn to that first CFP ranking on Nov 24. The committee has historically kept the top-ranked Group of 5 teams (and Independents not named Notre Dame) too far down the rankings in the initial set. In fact, over each of the last six years, the highest a Group of 5 team has been ranked in the initial standings was UCF's 7-0 team of 2018 at No. 12. The year before, UCF's 7-0 team checked in at No. 18 and an 8-0 Memphis team was ranked 13th back in 2015. However, it's a L-O-N-G way from 12 or 13 to that Final 4.Thursday's Notes will review MACtion from Wednesday, preview the start of NFL Week 10 with the AFC South showdown between the 5-3 Colts and 6-2 Titans plus take a long look at the upcoming SCFB weekend.Good luck...Larry

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NCAA Wednesday Night Football: Toledo/Western Michigan Preview

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Nov 11, 2020

Midweek Mid-American Conference action continues on Wednesday with a rivalry game between MAC West division powers on ESPN at 8 PM ET.Toledo began their season last Wednesday with a 38-3 win at home over Bowling Green as a 24-point favorite. Senior Eli Peters answered some questions about the quarterback position by completing 20 of his 32 passes for 214 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. That was Peters’ eleventh career start in the last three seasons after he played in five games last year where passed for 828 yards with five touchdowns splitting time with the now-graduated Mitchell Guadagni. The Rockets finished 6-6 last season, but they were the only bowl-eligible team in the FBS with at least six victories that did to get invited to a bowl game. The last time Toledo did not play in a postseason bowl game was 2013. After a 4-1 start, the Rockets only won two of their final seven games, with those victories eked out after one opponent missed a late field goal and the other foe missing a late two-point conversion attempt. Head coach Jason Candle cleaned house in the offseason preparing for his fifth-year with the program by hiring Mike Hallett and Robert Weiner as his new co-offensive coordinators along with Vince Kehres as his new defensive coordinator. Toledo returned four starters for this new coaching staff. The offense has eight starters back, including junior running back Bryant Koback, who rushed for 74 yards. Senior running back Shakif Seymour added to his 2008 career rushing yards with the program by adding another 93 yards on the ground. Led by this duo, the Rockets averaged 224.5 rushing yards-per-game last season. The Toledo defense limited the Falcons to just 267 yards. Seven starters are back from the unit that was 123rd in the nation by allowing 475.3 total yards-per-game. With a new coordinator along with four of the six tacklers returned from last year, hopes are high that the Rockets will be much better on that side of the football.Western Michigan began their season last Wednesday with a 58-13 win at Akron as a 19.5-point favorite. Sophomore Kaleb Eleby made his debut with the Broncos as their starting quarterback by completing 12 of 16 passes for 262 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Eleby played in five games in 2018, including against the Rockets, where he passed for 293 yards. He redshirted last year with Jon Wassink embarking on his Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year senior season under center. Head coach Tim Lester led Western Michigan to their sixth straight bowl-eligible season last year. The Broncos’ 23-20 loss to Western Kentucky in the First Responder Bowl ended their season with a 7-6 record. Eleven starters returned from that group. Western Michigan held the Zips to only 256 total yards last week, but their ability to stop the run is a concern for this contest. The Broncos gave up 130 rushing yards to an Akron offense that averaged only 47.6 rushing yards-per-game last year. Western Michigan did register seven tackles-for-loss against the Zips. Toledo won the meeting between these two teams last season at home in the Glass Bowl with their 31-24 victory as a 1.5-point favorite on October 5th. BookMaker lists Western Michigan as a 2-point home favorite with the total set at 58. ESPN has the broadcast at 8 PM ET.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Nov 11, 2020

The Wednesday sports card features another three college football games in the Mid-American Conference.Eastern Michigan travels to Ball State for a game starting at 7 PM ET. The Eagles lost their opening contest at Kent State by a 27-23 score as a 4.5-point underdog last Wednesday. Junior Preston Hutchinson completed 21 of 35 passes for 241 yards with two touchdown passes and two interceptions while adding another rushing touchdown. Eastern Michigan returned 11 starters from the team last year that finished 6-7 after a 34-30 loss to Pittsburgh in the Quick Lane Bowl. Head coach Chris Creighton is in his seventh season with the program.The Cardinals lost by a 38-31 score last Wednesday at Miami (OH) as a 1-point favorite. Senior Drew Plitt completed 19 of 32 passes for 309 yards with a touchdown pass and an interception in the losing effort. Ball State has 14 starters back from its team that finished 5-7. Fifth-year head coach Mike Neu was given a two-year extension through 2023 after leading the Cardinals to their most victories since 2014.Ball State is a 9-point favorite with the total set at 61.5 (all odds from BetAnySports). The CBS Sports Network has the broadcast.Western Michigan hosts Toledo at 8 PM ET. The Broncos blew out Akron on the road last Wednesday by a 58-14 score as a 19.5-point favorite. Sophomore quarterback Kaleb Eleby completed 12 of 16 passes for 262 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions in leading his team to victory. Western Michigan has 11 starters back from the team that lost to Western Kentucky in the First Responder Bowl by a 23-20 score to settle with a 7-6 record. Head coach Tim Lester is back for his fourth season with the program. Toledo looks to builds off a 38-3 victory over Bowling Green last Wednesday as a 24-point favorite. Senior quarterback Eli Peters completed 20 of 32 passes for 214 yards with four touchdown passes and another 67 rushing yards on the ground. The Rockets have 14 starters back for head coach Jason Candle’s fifth season with the team from the group last year that did not get invited to a bowl game after a 6-6 season.Western Michigan is a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 58.5. ESPN has the broadcast.Central Michigan travels to Northern Illinois for a game starting at 8 PM ET. The Chippewas upset Ohio at home last Wednesday as a 2.5-point underdog by a 30-27 score. Redshirt freshman quarterback Daniel Richardson completed 23 of 41 passes for 243 yards with a touchdown pass in leading his team to victory. Central Michigan has 13 starters back in head coach Jim McElwain’s second year with the program. The Chippewas reached the Mid-American Conference championship game last year, where they lost to Miami (OH) by a 26-21 score. After their defeat to San Diego State by a 48-11 score in the New Mexico Bowl, Central Michigan settled with an 8-6 record. Northern Illinois comes off a 49-30 loss at home to Buffalo last Wednesday as a 14.5-point underdog. Sixth-year senior quarterback Ross Bowers completed 17 of 28 passes for 202 yards with a touchdown and an interception in the losing effort. Not only did the Bulls return that interception for a 65-yard touchdown, but their defense scored another two touchdowns from fumble recoveries. The Huskies have ten starters back from the team that finished with a 5-7 record in Thomas Hammock’s second year coaching the team. The Chippewas are 7.5-point road favorites with a total of 58.5. ESPNU has the broadcast.

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