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American League - Over/Under Preview

by AAA Sports

Sunday, Apr 03, 2022

A look at Over/Under win totals for each American League team (last year’s record in parentheses):AMERICAN LEAGUE EASTBALTIMORE (52-110) 2022 O/U – 62.5The endless rebuild continues in Baltimore, where the Orioles hope to improve a woeful pitching staff (5.84 ERA) by moving back the fences at Camden Yards.BOSTON (92-70)2022 O/U – 85.5The starting rotation is Scotch-taped together after losing ace Chris Sale to injury for the first part of the season. But the Red Sox always hit, and the lineup got a boost with the signing of free agent second baseman Trevor Story. Expect lots of 8-7 games.NEW YORK (92-70)2022 O/U – 91.5The Yankees were a streaky team last season as the lineup ran hot and cold, partly because of the lack of left-handed bats in the lineup. Hopefully Josh Donaldson, acquired from the Twins, helps provide some balance. Gerrit Cole (16-8 last year) leads a decent rotation.TAMPA BAY (100-62)2022 O/U – 89.5Two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber joins a starting staff that was already solid, fronting for a lineup that scored the second-most runs in the majors in 2021.  Rays have won more games than any team in the A.L. over the past three seasons.TORONTO (91-72)2022 O/U – 92.5Losing Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and second baseman Marcus Semien was tough to swallow, but the Jays still have talent on hand. Expect lots of runs from a solid lineup led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whose 48 homers last season tied for the ML lead.AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRALCHICAGO (93-69)2022 O/U – 91.5Two straight playoff appearances – and two straight first-round losses. The White Sox are hoping for more this season, behind a deep rotation that has no real ace and an excellent lineup led by Tim Anderson and Jose Abreau.CLEVELAND (80-82)2022 O/U – 76.5Low payroll and low expectations for the Guardians. Veteran manager Terry Francona will have his work cut out with this group. Injuries kept No. 1 Shane Bieber to 16 starts last season, and if he can’t stay on the field more this season, it won’t be pretty.DETROIT (77-85)2022 O/U – 77.5Five straight losing seasons were apparently enough for management, which bumped up the payroll and brought on starter Eduardo Rodriguez and several others. Tigers are hoping Miguel Cabrera can still drive in runs at age 39.KANSAS CITY (74-88)2022 O/U – 74.5Look who’s back! Zack Greinke, who won the Cy in KC in 2009. He’ll head a young staff that showed some promise last season. All eyes will be on shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., considered the top prospect in the majors.MINNESOTA (73-89)2022 O/U – 81.5The offense should not be a problem, especially with the arrival of premier shortstop Carlos Correia. The problem is the pitching staff, which will throw to former Yankee catcher Gary Sanchez. None of the projected starting staff had an ERA under 4 last season.AMERICAN LEAGUE WESTHOUSTON (95-67)2022 O/U – 91.5Correia is gone, but plenty of talent remains from last season’s World Series losers. Justin Verlander returns from Tommy John surgery, and if he’s 80 percent of what he was, the staff will be among the best. Scoring runs won’t be a problem.OAKLAND (86-76)2022 O/U – 70.5At least the A’s are consistent. Develop players, then trade them away before you have to pay them. The post-lockout exodus (Olsen, Chapman, Bassitt) was almost immediate. A move to Las Vegas seems inevitable; only the details remain.LOS ANGELES (77-85)2022 O/U – 83.5If, if, if the Angeles stay somewhat healthy (looking at you, Mike Trout and Tony Rendon), then they’ll have a puncher’s chance at ending their 7-year playoff drought. Noah Syndergaard should bolster the starting staff and Michael Lorenzen should boost the bullpen.SEATTLE (90-72)2022 O/U – 83.5Has it really been 20 years since the Mariners made the playoffs? Yikes. That streak is in serious danger this season as Seattle progresses. Cy Young winner Robbie Ray leads the staff, and if the offense is even a little above average, the Mariners could surprise.TEXAS (60-102)2022 O/U – 74.5The Rangers are another team trying to spend their way out of the dumpster. The middle of the infield will feature Corey Seager and second baseman Marcus Semien. None of the projected starters – including free agent Jon Gray – had a winning record last year.

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MLB Futures Wager: Toronto Blue Jays to Win the 2022 World Series

by Al McMordie

Sunday, Apr 03, 2022

The baseball gods must have been looking down from above, as management and labor settled their dispute surprisingly fast, and the season only suffered a minor delay.  So, Opening Day is this week, and it's time for our annual MLB Futures prediction (which can't be any worse than last season's 22-1 pick on the Minnesota Twins).Notwithstanding last year's stumble, faithful followers know that my futures predictions are among the best (if not THE BEST) in the business.  Let's review some highlights just in the past few years.  In 2021, both my NBA (Milwaukee Bucks @ 13-2 odds) and College Basketball (Baylor @ 12-1 odds) futures bets paid off handsomely.  And, since we had no tournament in College Basketball in 2020, that was the 2nd straight NCAA Basketball season I hit my futures ticket, as I also had Virginia (at 22-1 odds) in the 2018-19 preseason (Virginia was my favorite Futures Wager of All-Time)!  Also in 2019, I cashed a major longshot in Baseball on the Washington Nationals (at 18-1 odds), and followed that World Series winner up in 2020 with the Los Angeles Dodgers (at 4-1 odds).  Among my other recent preseason winners were the Houston Astros in 2017 (at 10-1 odds), Tampa Bay Lightning in 2020 (at 7-1 odds), San Antonio Spurs (2014, 14-1 odds; 1999, 11-2 odds), Golden State Warriors (2017, -125 odds; 2018, -160 odds), and Green Bay Packers (2011, 10-1 odds).This MLB season, we'll head north-of-the-border for our selection on Toronto at 9-1 odds.  Last season, the Blue Jays had one of the most talented rosters in their history.  It was a roster that included a Cy Young Award Winner and a young slugger who almost won the Triple Crown.  And yet, the 2021 Blue Jays failed to make the post-season despite winning 91 games.  They return this season with a team that is arguably even better -- one which is capable of the first 100-win season in franchise history.  That Cy Young starter -- Robbie Ray -- has moved on to Seattle, but an equally talented arm has come in to replace him, in Kevin Gausman.  The youngsters who drive much of the offense, namely Vlad Guerrero Jr, and Bo Bichette, are about to enter their prime.  And the Jays upgraded the hot corner with the acquisition of Matt Chapman.  Finally, their bullpen -- provided key pitchers don't suffer injuries -- shouldn't be an Achilles' heel this season.  It's true that the AL East division is loaded.  But the Yankees did not significantly improve an aging roster and are looking at a rotation which consists of Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, and then some combination of Jameson Taillon, Jordan Montgomery, and Nestor Cortes.  And the Red Sox didn't add any significant arms either.  Indeed, that team just received bad news regarding ace Chris Sale and his ailing ribs.  Of course, the Rays are always a threat, but it's hard to say exactly what their lineup or rotation will look like this spring -- let alone who will be left come August.  So that leaves the Jays as strong favorites in the East and a likely club to go deep into the post-season in October.  Take Toronto to win the 2022 World Series.  They're currently +900 at DraftKings.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

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National League - Over/Under Preview

by AAA Sports

Sunday, Apr 03, 2022

A look at Over/Under win totals for each National League team (last year’s record in parentheses):NATIONAL LEAGUE EASTATLANTA (88-73)2022 O/U – 90.5Matt Olson replaces fixture Freddie Freeman at first base, bit otherwise the Braves will run out the same squad that last season produced their first World Series title since 1995. Slugger Ronald Acuna played only half a season in 2021 due to injury, and he will miss maybe a month of this year. Starting pitching could be the only real problem.MIAMI (67-95)2022 O/U – 76.5The rebuild is ongoing, and the Marlins could make a run at .500. The offense was awful last season, but got a boost when Miami acquired corner outfielders Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia – they combined for 56 home runs last season.NEW YORK (77-85)2022 O/U – 90.5Anything less than a World Series appearance will disappoint Mets fans, who saw their team add Max Scherzer and All-Star Chris Bassitt to a rotation headed by Jacob deGrom. One concern – the Mets are old, and old teams tend to accumulate a lot of injuries.PHILADELPHIA (82-80)2022 O/U – 85.5Bryce Harper won the NL MVP last season, but it was nowhere near enough for the Phillies. So they added two more bats – Nick Castellano and Kyle Schwarber – to juice the lineup. Decent health could help the Phillies make the playoffs for the first time since the 2011 team led by Roy Halladay and Ryan Howard.WASHINGTON (65-97)2022 O/U – 71.5Anything close to .500 would be a dream season for the 2019 champs, who are starting from scratch after selling off most of their top players last season. Signing face of the franchise Juan Soto is a top priority. Ace Steven Strasburg is still recovering from his second straight season-ending injury.NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRALCHICAGO (71-91)2022 O/U – 75.5Lots of question marks at Wrigley this time around. A mid-season salary dump (Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo) led to a predictable late-season dive, but opened the door for youngsters. The top of the rotation isn’t bad – Kyle Kendicks (14-7) and newcomer Marcus Stroman.CINCINNATI (83-79)2022 O/U – 74.5The Reds can score, but can they score enough to compensate for a pitching staff that is dependent on some rookies and already dealing with injuries? NL MVP Jonathan India and veteran Joey Votto anchor a solid lineup. Oddsmakers see a significant dip after last year’s +.500 season.MILWAUKEE (95-67)2022 O/U – 88.5Have to like the chances of any team with three All-Stars – Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta – in the rotation and the game’s best closer in Josh Hader. The offense went flat in the playoff loss to the Braves, but they should at minimum get to the post-season for the fifth straight year.PITTSBURGH (61-101)2022 O/U – 65.5Fans may be tired of rebuilds, but that’s life in Pittsburgh. At least the Bucs can sell the future without lying as the minor league system is littered with talent. That won’t help right now, though. One interesting newcomer is Seiya Suzuki, who hit 38 homers in Japan last season.ST. LOUIS (90-72)2022 O/U – 84.5No one is really sure why manager Mike Schildt was canned, but new field boss Oliver Marmol has a veteran team to lead. Even Card legend Albert Pujols is back for a final good-bye (as DH). Injuries in the rotation could cause some problems early, so scoring runs will be a priority.NATIONAL LEAGUE WESTARIZONA (52-110)2022 O/U – 66.5Watching the bottom line often gets you to the bottom of the division in MLB, and that’s where the Diamondbacks find themselves. They’ve added no one of significance to a team that had the fewest (tied with Baltimore) wins in the MLB a year ago. Should be interesting to see if Madison Bumgarner has anything left.COLORADO (74-87)2022 O/U – 68.5The Rockies seem cemented into fourth place in the West, and hope against hope that newcomer Kris Bryant will jolt the team toward a playoff berth. Losing Trevor Story to the Red Sox was a tough body blow. Pitching is always an issue in Colorado, and they also lost starter Jon Gray. Crossing fingers.LOS ANGELES (106-56)2022 O/U – 97.5More coal to Newcastle, as the 106-win Dodgers bulked up the lineup by buying slugger Freddie Freeman. Are there any holes on this team? Maybe not. Walker Buehler (16-4) is now the ace, but Clayton Kershaw can still get batters out, so losing Max Scherzer won’t be the end of the world.SAN DIEGO (79-83)2022 O/U – 88.5SAN FRANCISCO (107-55)2022 O/U – 85.5Injuries late last season ended the Padres’ post-season hopes, and already NL home run champ Fernando Tatis is hurt (wrist) and will miss a few months. At least the rotation looks healthy right now, with Yu Darvish and Blake Snell carrying a lot of the load.SAN FRANCISCO (107-55)2022 O/U – 85.5The Giants just refuse to go away as a contender. They won’t win 107 again, but a playoff spot is within reach. All eyes will be on top prospect Joey Bart as he replaces Buster Posey behind the plate. Offense could be a problem if long-time vets Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt start to show their age.

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2022 NCAA Basketball Tournament: A Point Spread Review

by Al McMordie

Saturday, Apr 02, 2022

The 2022 NCAA Basketball Tournament has certainly had a lot of surprises along the way.  But it wasn't as crazy as the 2021 Tourney, when there were a record-setting 16 wins by teams seeded 10 or worse (not including the "First Four" play-in round).  This tournament "only" had 13 wins by teams seeded 10 or worse.  But it did also have the historic journey of #15-seed Saint Peter's, which became the first team seeded 13 (or higher) to reach the Elite Eight round.  The 2021 event also had the most upsets (14) by a team seeded at least 5 spots worse than its opponent, but this tournament fell just shy of that mark with 12 such upsets.  But, like last year, when the final matched-up #1 seeds Baylor and Gonzaga, the cream eventually rose to the top this season, and we have three teams in the Final Four seeded #1 or #2.  Only #8 North Carolina is truly a dark horse.Let's take a look at first four rounds of this tournament, from a point spread perspective.  We'll not include the First Four games in this analysis.The most striking fact is that underdogs have done very well, as they've gone 33-26 ATS (with one game a PK).  Here is a breakdown by seeds:#1 seeds:  9-3 SU, 3-9 ATS#2 seeds: 9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS#3 seeds: 6-4 SU, 4-6 ATS#4 seeds: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS#5 seeds: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS#6 seeds: 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS#7 seeds: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS#8 seeds: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS#9 seeds: 3-4 SU, 6-1 ATS#10 seeds: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS#11 seeds: 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS#12 seeds: 2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS#13 seeds: 0-4 SU, 3-1 ATS#14 seeds: 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS#15 seeds: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS#16 seeds: 0-4 SU, 2-2 ATSAnd here is a breakdown of point spread ranges:Underdogs of +3.5 or less:  9-11 ATSUnderdogs +4 to +7.5:  10-6 ATSUnderdogs +8 to +11.5:  7-2 ATSUnderdogs of +12 or more:  7-7 ATSLike last season, the games have tended to go under the total, as the unders are 34-26 through the first four rounds (35-29 if you include the "First Four games).Let's take a look at some other point spread situations:Teams that won their conference tournament (against foes that didn't win their conference tournament):  15-16 ATSTeams off a straight-up loss (against foes not off a loss):  8-9 ATSTeams off back-to-back losses (against foes not off back-to-back losses):  3-2 ATSTeams off ATS loss (against foes not off an ATS loss):  13-17 ATSTeams off back-to-back-ATS losses (against foes not off back-to-back ATS losses):  12-12 ATSTeams off back-to-back ATS wins (against foes not off back-to-back ATS wins):  19-13 ATSTeams off 3 SU/ATS wins (against foes not off 3 SU/ATS wins):  13-9 ATSTeams off an upset win (against foes not off an upset win):  11-10 ATSTeams off an upset loss (against foes not off an upset loss):  6-8 ATSTeams off a double-digit win (against foes not off a double-digit win):  13-10 ATSTeams playing with revenge:  3-1 ATSGood luck, as always...Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, EPL, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 04/02/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Apr 02, 2022

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has five games on its docket. Philadelphia hosts Charlotte at 12:40 PM ET as a 6-point favorite with the total set at 231.5. Cleveland visits New York at 1:10 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 214.5. Brooklyn plays at Atlanta at 7:40 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 241. Miami is at Chicago at 8:10 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 221. Utah travels to Golden State at 8:40 PM ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 219.Nine games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. Florida plays at New Jersey at 12:35 PM ET as a -200 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Colorado hosts Pittsburgh on ABC at 3:05 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with a total of 6. The puck drops at 7:05 PM ET for five games. Winnipeg plays at home against Los Angeles as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Boston is at home against Columbus as a -350 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Tampa Bay plays at home against Montreal as a -340 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Toronto visits Philadelphia as a -285 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Carolina hosts Minnesota as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Calgary plays at home against St. Louis at 10:05 PM ET as a -245 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Dallas is at San Jose at 10:35 PM ET as a -150 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Saturday college basketball card has the two final four games in the NCAA tournament on TBS at the Caesars Superdome. Kansas plays Villanova at 6:09 PM ET in the opening game. The Jayhawks are on a nine-game winning streak after their 76-50 victory against Miami (Florida) as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Wildcats won their ninth-straight game with a 50-44 upset win against Houston as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas is a 4-point favorite with a total of 133. Duke plays North Carolina in the nightcap at 8:49 PM ET. The Blue Devils won their sixth game in their last seven with a 78-69 victory against Arkansas as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. The Tar Heels won their 10th game in their last 11 with their 69-49 victory against Saint Peter’s as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. Duke is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 151. Matchweek 31 in the English Premier League begins with seven matches. Liverpool hosts Watford on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -2.5 goal line favorite with a total of 3.5 (all soccer odds from PlayMGM). Four matches start at 10 AM ET. Brighton and Hove Albion plays Norwich City on Peacock as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester City visits Burnley on Peacock as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 3. Chelsea is at home against Brentford as a -1.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Southampton travels to Leeds United on Peacock in a pick ‘em match with a total of 3. Aston Villa plays at Wolverhampton on CNBC in a pick ‘em contest with an over/under of 2. Manchester United is at home against Leicester City on the USA Network at 12:30 PM ET as a -1 goal line favorite with a total of 3.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 04/01/2022

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Apr 01, 2022

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has ten games on its docket. Two games tip-off the card at 7:10 PM ET. Toronto visits Orlando as a 9.5-point favorite with the total set at 220.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Dallas plays at Washington as an 8.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 220.5. Boston hosts Indiana at 7:40 PM ET as a 15-point favorite with a total of 223. Four NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. Sacramento travels to Houston as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 231.5. Phoenix plays at Memphis as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 228.5. Milwaukee is at home against the Los Angeles Clippers as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 232. Detroit visits Oklahoma City as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 220. San Antonio hosts Portland at 8:40 PM ET as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 231. Denver plays at home against Minnesota at 9:10 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 235. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against New Orleans at 10:40 PM ET as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 234. Seven games are on the slate in the National Hockey League. Three games drop the puck at 7:05 PM ET. Nashville travels to Buffalo as a -190 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Tampa Bay is at home against Chicago as a -330 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The New York Rangers are at home against the New York Islanders as a -165 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Detroit plays at home against Ottawa at 7:35 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Edmonton hosts St. Louis at 9:05 PM ET as a -140 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Vegas visits Seattle at 10:05 PM ET as a -175 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Anaheim plays at Arizona at 10:35 PM ET as a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5.Coastal Carolina hosts Fresno State in the championship game of The Basketball Classic at 6 PM ET. This contest was originally scheduled for Thursday before unforeseen travels issues with the Bulldogs prompted the game to be pushed back a day. The Chanticleers upset South Alabama on the road, 69-68, as a 1-point underdog in the semifinals of this tournament on Monday. After losing in their opening game of the Sun Belt Conference tournament to Georgia Southern, they beat Maryland-Eastern Shore and the Florida Gulf Coast in this tournament before beating the Jaguars on Monday to raise their record to 19-13. Fresno State won their third straight game to reach the finals with a 67-48 victory against Southern Utah as a 7-point favorite on Monday. After losing in the second round of the Mountain West Conference tournament to San Diego State, the Bulldogs rattled off wins against Eastern Washington and Youngstown State in this tournament before their victory against the Thunderbirds to begin the week. They have a 24-13 record. Fresno State is a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 126.5.

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How Have Teams Fared After Winning an NCAA Tournament Game in OT?

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

Are NCAA-B tournament teams that come off a victory in overtime in their previous NCAA tournament game at a disadvantage in their next game, or does that dynamic gets priced into the line by the oddsmakers?It remains an ongoing question. There were six overtime games in the NCAA tournament in March. Perhaps analyzing those results can offer insight?Notre Dame outlasted Rutgers in two overtimes, 89-87, as a 1-point underdog in one of the first four games. The ten additional minutes did not appear to take a toll on a Fighting Irish team that did not rely on a deep bench as they made it to the weekend before losing to Texas Tech. They upset Alabama in the first round of the tournament, 78-64, as a 4-point underdog. St. Peter’s upset Kentucky, 85-79, in overtime as an 18.5-point underdog in the first round. That experience seems to energize the team as they proceeded to continue on a magical run that saw them become the first 15 seed to reach the Elite 8 where they lost to North Carolina. St. Peter’s pulled off three upsets along the way, including beating Murray State in the second round. Murray State’s loss as an 8.5-point favorite was the first team to not cover the point spread after winning their prior tournament game in overtime. The Racers needed overtime to cover the 2 points the oddsmakers had them laying in their opening round game against San Francisco which they pulled out, 92-87. Creighton defeated San Diego State, 72-69, in the first round of the tournament as a 2.5-point underdog. They played valiantly against Kansas in the second round despite the injury suffered to Ryan Kalkbrenner in the overtime of the game with the Aztecs. Yet the Bluejays lost the game ultimately, 79-72, as a 13-point underdog. North Carolina blew a 25-point lead against Baylor in the second round but used overtime to upset the defending national champions, 93-86, as a 5.5-point underdog. The Tar Heels followed that up by upsetting UCLA, 73-66, as a 2.5-point underdog in the Sweet 16. Arizona needed overtime to get past TCU, 85-80, as a 9.5-point favorite in the final game of the second round. The Wildcats were then upset by Houston, 72-60, as a 1.5-point favorite in the Sweet 16.In all, NCAA tournament overtime survivors went 4-2 against the spread in their next tournament game. Three of those four winners pulled off upset victories in their next game with Creighton the only team to parlay their momentum into an upset win. Both overtime losers, Arizona and Murray State got upset as a favorite after not covering the point spread as a favorite in their overtime victory in their previous game. These are interesting trends to continue to scrutinize next year. Good luck - TDG.

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The Sacramento Kings Are Still Playing Hard (and Covering)

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

The Sacramento Kings may be out of the playoff race, yet they are offering some point spread value down the stretch as they play hard for head coach Alvin Gentry. They played Houston as a small road favorite on Wednesday in a game between two teams playing for next year in the Western Conference. The Kings were on a two-game winning streak before losing at Miami to an angry Heat team desperate to end a four-game losing streak in a 123-100 loss on Monday. Because they are not going to make the playoffs this year, they appear to have shut down De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis for the rest of the season with their nagging injuries. Yet the team is still competitive with rookie Davion Mitchell being given the keys to lead the offense. When they drafted Mitchell with the ninth pick in the first round out of Baylor, many observers were scratching their heads considering they already had Fox and Tyrese Haliburton as starting guards. Yet after Haliburton was traded to Indiana with Sabonis coming over in return, Mitchell has been given the room to develop. In the last five games since Fox has been out before Thursday’s game, Mitchell was averaging 22 points per game with 7 assists per game, 3 rebounds per game, and 1 steal per game. Sacramento beat the Rockets, 121-118, with Mitchell scoring 24 points while adding 8 assists and 5 rebounds. Sacramento cannot do too much to help their ping pong ball odds for the upcoming NBA draft lottery. Having the sixth-worst record in the league, they are losing ground quickly against the Indiana Pacers who are in complete free-fall after that trade. The Kings began the last day of March remaining 5 1/2 games above Oklahoma City who have the fourth-worst record in the NBA. At this point, Gentry probably wants his team to continue to play well and build positive momentum for the future while seeing what Mitchell can do. Our NBA Western Conference Game of the Month was with Sacramento in that Wednesday game in Houston. Bettors who had had -2.5 tickets won, yet there -3s out there with those punters having to settle for the push. The Kings will remain an interesting option for the rest of the regular season. They have covered the point spread in sixteen of their last twenty-five games in the second half of the season along with nine of their fourteen games this month. They are 5-1-1 ats in their last six games on the road, and they have covered the point spread in eight of their last eleven games on the road against teams not winning more than 40% of their games at home. Good luck - TDG.

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Gaming Out Some Game Theory Under the New NFL Overtime Rule

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

I have previously offered my proposal for a change to the NFL overtime rules: https://www.bigal.com/handicapper/articles/fixing-nfl-overtimeI have also written my thoughts about how the recent NFL change to the overtime rule may only kick the can regarding the problem they are attempting to solve: https://www.bigal.com/handicapper/articles/nfl-overtime-rule-change-kicking-the-can-or-game-theory-lollapoloozaIn that second article, I identified some interesting Game Theory circumstances that coaches will now have. These decisions do not solve the inherent structural problem from the advantage of winning the coin flip award, but it does offer some avenues for good or bad coaching decisions to determine the ending of the game. I see three questions that head coaches will now encounter.(1) We just won the flip — do we want the ball first or second?The answer to this one may initially seem pretty straightforward since years of the college football overtime system have provided many examples to analyze how this dynamic plays out. Most college football teams who win the right to choose the first option in overtime choose the second possession. The logic is that the offense that understands exactly what they need to accomplish to win or extend the game has an advantage. What should an offense do if confronted with a fourth down? The team with the ball first may decide to simply kick the field goal. But this could be a mistake since their opponent now knows they can win the game with a touchdown — and change their play-calling to be more aggressive. On the other hand, if the team with the ball first attempts to go for it on fourth down — and fails — then their opponents seize a huge advantage since they can play conservatively and win the game with a short field goal. An important concept within Game Theory is this: it is disadvantageous to make the first critical (potentially game-defining) decision. Why is this? Putting yourself at unnecessary risk foregoes the opportunity for your opponent to offer you an advantage, free of charge (without taking a risk). Think of these scenarios as a game of chicken — the first one that blinks puts themselves at a disadvantage. This is the strategic foundation in chess to delay the deployment of the queen (with the Game Theory exceptions of this norm, notwithstanding). This is why college football teams choose the second possession in the overtime period. This is (one of the reasons) why it is more successful to avoid choosing big underdog upsets in the first round of your March Madness bracket (for every Saint Peter’s Hail Mary, there are far more misses — so let everyone else choose UAB while you retain the sizable haul from Houston). This is also a foundational reason that aggressive play in poker is advantageous when it forces your opponent to put all their chips at risk. Yet the “obvious” Game Theory decision within the new NFL overtime rules is not so obvious in practice. While the college system rotates who gets the ball first and last from round to round, the NFL system maintains the same order from round to round — but without a guarantee that that the team going last in round one will ever get the ball again (if their opponent scores first in that hypothetical round two). Opting for the ball last in the first round might doom that team to never getting a second chance at the football. This brings us to the second question.(2) If trailing by seven points in overtime, should you attempt a two-point conversion if you score a potential game-tying touchdown. If the team chooses (to attempt) to simply tie the game with an extra point, then all their opponent needs is a field goal to win the game. Is the team better off by simply trying to win the game with a two-point conversion now? The real question is simple: does the team have a higher chance of successfully converting the two-point conversion than they do in stopping their opponent from scoring a touchdown or field goal? In practice, determining the true answer is very hard. Game Theory suggests the more opportunity you offer your opponent to make a mistake, the more likely they will. But the margins are getting thinner. (3) Should the team getting the ball first in overtime attempt a two-point conversion after their touchdown with the knowledge that their opponent could hypothetically win the game with a two-point conversion if they counter with a touchdown?The real question posed to this team seems to be: are their odds of missing the two-point conversion lower than the risk assessment of (a) the probability that their opponent would choose to win the game with a two-point conversion rather than tie with an extra point (question (2), above; there is no risk of going for the two-point conversion if your opponent will always play for the tie) and (b) the probability of the success your opponent has in converting this two-point conversion. In poker, these risk assessments take place all the time in assessing pot odds regarding staying in a hand or folding. This is getting pretty complicated. Game Theory suggests that the more complicated the situation gets, the more likely someone will make a mistake. I don’t know how this will play out (besides knowing what Brandon Staley will choose in every instance). And the sample sizes are small. Even if the success rate of two-point conversions drops to 35% in overtime given the pressure of the moment, the depletion of a team’s best plays (that were already burned), and injuries impacting optimum effectiveness, teams that go for two will find some success. After playing these scenarios out, I still tend to defer to the assumption that the team that provokes their opponent to blink first will then be at an advantage. We have five months to game this out some more, maybe my thoughts will evolve?Best of luck — Frank. 

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NFL Overtime Rule Change -- Kicking the Can or Game Theory Lollapalooza?

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

The NFL changed their overtime rules this week after the outcry from the AFC Divisional playoff run where Kansas City beat Buffalo by a 42-36 score. I wrote about my modest proposal to change the overtime rules at the time here: https://www.bigal.com/handicapper/articles/fixing-nfl-overtimeNot surprisingly, the league has voted to ensure each team gets one possession in overtime. Atlanta Falcons President Rich McKay inadvertently offered some comedy to the situation by citing that the decision was “data-driven” since the team who won the coin toss to begin overtime went on to win the game in 10 of the 12 playoff overtime games since the rule was initiated. That’s quite a sample size over a 13-year period since the New Orleans Saints were the first team to benefit from that rule change in the 2009 playoffs (Drew Brees versus Minnesota). Seven teams won the game in the first possession which seemed compelling to folks like McKay and NBC Sports’ journalist/pundit Peter King. If one less team would have clinched the game with an opening drive touchdown in the overtime over these 13 years, would the data no longer have supported the change? What exactly did the NFL, McKay, and King think was going to happen when the winner of the coin toss is given such a strong incentive to not bring out a kicker of any kind since a touchdown successfully ends the game for them?This reform does not solve the problem. It merely kicks the can. Peter King and the 24-hour Hot Take Industry will have plenty to still talk about with the next dozen NFL playoff games that go to overtime over the next dozen or so years. If Josh Allen would have countered the Chiefs' initial overtime touchdown with a Bills’ touchdown, then Kansas City gets the ball back with the opportunity to simply win the game via a field goal. The inequity stemming from the arbitrary coin flip emerges once again, albeit delayed. King can cite the statistics that the team that won the coin flip continues to be more likely to win in overtime. Surprise!As I mentioned in my previous thoughts on this matter, this change in the rule does create the opportunity for some interesting game theory. The team getting the ball second may choose to attempt to end the game right then and thereafter score their potential game-tying touchdown by attempting a 2-point conversion. Of course, if they fail, they lose the game. This possibility may convince the Brandon Staley’s of the world to attempt 2-point conversions if they score the first touchdown in overtime, which will be hilarious/infuriating depending on where one's money is invested. It will be like Lollapalooza for the NFL Analytics Twitter (once they decide where the Group Think answer is).This will add drama to the proceedings. The college football overtime format has drama — and the NFL has little interest in adopting their proposal. This reform by the NFL attempts to obscure the inherent problem that a coin flip gives one team a structural advantage. Layered within this change is the incentivizing for one or both teams bypassing the extra point for a two-point conversion. The first team to miss a two-point conversion probably loses. Sounds like the college system. My earlier proposal was to replace the coin flip with the awarding the structural advantage of getting to choose the first or last possession that generated the most total yards in the game (and add special teams yards!) with the choice of first or last possession. Some coaches may determine that getting the ball last becomes the more strategic option since that offense will know exactly what they need to accomplish to win or extend the game. Peter King at least has to change his talking point to “the team that gained the most yardage during the game most often wins in overtime.” Rich McKay can continue to claim this is all “data-driven!”It will be interesting to see how this plays out in practice. One thing we probably can already conclude is that a dozen examples in a dozen years probably does not offer enough of a sample size to make responsible conclusions. But that will not stop us!Best of luck  — Frank.

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MLB 2022: NL East Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

NL East Division Preview for MLB 2022Atlanta Braves – The Braves are projected by most to land at around 90 wins this season and battle it out with the Mets for the top spot in this division. However, they are the defending champs and it so tough to repeat and teams can slump some after winning it all. Not only that, as stacked as this team is, the loss of Freddie Freeman, a Brave for so long, could really impact the heart and soul of this team to an extent. Miami Marlins – The Marlins are expected to finish in a range of mid-70s in wins this season. They have a solid rotation really when you look at it. But the bullpen is solid yet not truly dominant and then this lineup is just not that strong. That is why this team again finishes below .500 and perhaps looking at unders when some of Miami’s top starting pitching is out there will be the way to go with this team. New York Mets – The Mets are projected by most to land at around 90 wins this season and battle it out with the Braves for the top spot in this division.  In my opinion this is the team to beat in the division. However, they will have to improve their road play to win the division as they won just 30 of 81 road games last year! But I like the looks of this lineup and certainly this team is loaded top end talent in the starting rotation too. Solid bullpen as well so this team has the makings to hold off the Braves and Phillies at the top of the NL East as long as they get more road wins which I fully expect this season. Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies are certainly still a threat in this division but likely to fall into the mid-80s for a win total and fall just short of both the Braves and Mets. Defense matters and the Phillies were one of the worst teams in the majors defensively last season. However, if Nola bounces back and this solid-looking rotation holds up and the bullpen is decent, this team will be tough to beat. They have a rock-solid lineup of hitters and absolutely could make a push this season. The key will be avoiding the dreaded late season fade that tends to plague this team annually in recent years. Washington Nationals – Projected to be in the 70-range for their win total this season as Washington continues its slide that began when the Nats finished below .500 in the shortened 2020 season. This team could have quite a few overs in my opinion. They still have a solid lineup but have a lot of question marks in the starting rotation and this season the bullpen is relying a lot on guys that are not 100% proven just yet to say the least. Remember this team had 34 blown saves last year and that is the most since they moved from Montreal over 15 years ago! This year’s bullpen also looks shaky. Strong hitting, subpar pitching combine for a team likely to be good to lack out for considering overs depending on the pitching match-ups. 

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MLB 2022: AL East Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Mar 31, 2022

AL East Division Preview for MLB 2022Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles are projected by most to finish with a win total in the low-60s. Baltimore only won 52 games last season and will again be one of the worst teams in the majors. This team has been so focused on player development and the farm system that they continue to struggle to put together a competitive team. It is particularly tough because they play in such a strong division with each of the other 4 teams likely to have winning seasons this year! Boston Red Sox – Boston is projected to finish a little above .500 this season with a win total in the mid-80s. The Red Sox won 92 games last season but are stuck in a division that, outside of Baltimore, is filled with top competition. The concern for the Red Sox is with their bullpen but they are still a strong team in terms of their lineup and I will be looking for overs when the right pitching match-ups present themselves involving Boston and their opposition. New York Yankees – The Yankees are expected to challenge win this division and get to a win total in the low-90s but the Rays and Jays are likely to have something to say about that. One of the two could emerge as a challenger to the Yankees absolutely. What would be a weakness with the big bankroll Yankees? It just seems that health issues creep on key players for the Yankees almost always. I do like their bullpen and overall this is a stacked team once again so I will be looking for value line spots to back them but those will be few and far between because they are usually a popular choice in the betting markets.Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays should get into the upper-80s for a win total this season. Amazingly so often one of the lower payrolls in baseball but Tampa Bay still finds a way. They are so competitive. A small market team that is easy to like based on the competitive level they bring despite not having a lot of star power. The Rays won 100 games last season but the key arms of their 2021 rotation (Baz, Patino, McClanahan, Rasmussen) were guys without starting pitching experience at the MLB level and yet the Rays survived that. I am expecting a sophomore slump of sorts in that regard. This is still a strong team but they will ended up in the mid to upper 80s for win total rather than near the century mark. Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays are expected to get into the low-90s for their win total this season. I like the fact that this team is so strong and continues to trend upwards and the young corps is growing up together in Toronto and it is building a solid clubhouse. That counts for sure and this team will challenge the Yankees for the top spot in the division. By the way, a quirky stat but certainly worth noting as this was over the course of the entire season last year: the Blue Jays were actually 2 games below .500 in night games but won 70% of day games last season on their way to a 91-win season. Keep an eye on that trend possibly continuing early on in 2022 as you look for spots to back or fade the Jays.

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