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Only the 'Sweetest' Teams Allowed

by Larry Ness

Wednesday, Mar 23, 2022

The 2022 NCAA Tournament Field (68 teams) was announced on Sunday March 13, with First Four games on Tuesday (Mar 14) and Wednesday (Mar 15). The 64-team field was set by Thursday and four days later, only the 'sweetest' 16 teams remained. I won't "bury the lead." Favorites went 3-1 SU & ATS in First Four games and then 12-4 SU & 9-7 ATS on Thursday. The Loyola-Ohio St game closed at pick'em, as favorites went 10-5 SU but just 6-9 ATS on Friday. It was on to the Round of 32 on Saturday and Sunday, Favorites were 5-3 SU on Saturday but had a bad day at 'the betting window,' going 2-6 ATS. Favorites improved to 6-2 SU on Sunday but were a modest 4-4 ATS. Doing the math, here's how "the numbers" stand, as the Sweet 16 games get set to tip off on Thursday night. Favorites are 36-15 SU (.706) but 24-27 ATS (37.1%), or -5.7 net games.The four No. 1 seeds were Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas and Baylor. Heading into this year's Big Dance, No. 1 seeds were 143-1 all-time against No. 16 seeds. The No.1 seeds all advanced this week as well, upping the all-time record to 147-1. I'm sure ALL will remember that one loss that came in the 2018 tourney. The 16th-seeded UMBC Retrievers not only beat the overall No. 1 seed (UVa) but did so in dominant fashion by a score of 74-54! According to NCAA.com, there had only been 15 games between No. 1 and No.16 seeds decided by 10 points or less entering the 2022 tourney. This year followed the same pattern, as the No. 1 seeds won by an average of 24.8 PPG. Ironically, the No. 1 seed with the largest margin of victory was Baylor (Bears won by 36 points), but it is also the lone No. 1 seed to NOT advance to the Sweet 16. The defending champs lost 93-86 in OT to No. 8 North Carolina. How 'bout 'dem Tar Heels? UNC's victory over Baylor was the Tar Heels' NINTH win against a No. 1 since seeding began in 1979, tying Duke for the most ever.The 'Cinderella' team of the 2022 tourney is St Peter's, which beat No. 2 seed Kentucky 85-79 in OT on Thursday and then beat Murray St 70-60 on Saturday, ending the Racers' 21-game winning streak (longest in the nation). For the third time ever, a No. 15 seed has advanced to the Sweet 16. However, it happened just last year as well (Oral Roberts) and back in 2013 with Florida Gulf Coast's "Dunk City' squad. While it's not possible to top St Peter's run to the Sweet 16, it's only fair to give Iowa State and its head coach a shout out. T.J. Otzelberger came from UNLV to take over an Iowa St team that went 2-22 last season, including 0-18 in the Big 12. The Cyclones opened the season 12-0 and entered the tournament as an 11-seed  (20-12). Iowa St beat LSU (6-seed) 85-79 on Thursday and then beat Wisconsin (3-seed) 54-49 on Sunday. St Peter's and Iowa St are joined by two other double digit seeds in this year's Sweet 16, No. 11 Michigan and No. 10 Miami. All four teams are now just ONE win away from advancing to the Elite  Eight. Since No. 10 Miami and No. 11 Iowa St play each other on Friday, at least one double digit will have reached the Elite 8. By the way, No. 12 Oregon State and No. 11 UCLA each made Elite 8 appearances last season (UCLA made the Final Four).  Only ONE of the four regions features the top four seeds and that's the West (played in San Francisco). It's No. 1 Gonzaga vs No. 4 Arkansas and  No. 2 Duke vs No. 3 Texas Tech. Gonzaga has now reached its SEVENTH straight Sweet 16 (third-longest streak ever). Will it finally be the 'Zags year? History is NOT on Gonzaga's side. The Bulldogs finished as the No. 1 team from the final AP and the AP's final No. 1 team has gone on to win the title only FOUR times since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. It's happened just ONCE since 2001 and that was Kentucky in 2012, led by Anthony Davis.In closing, here's a list NO Power-5 school wants to be on. There were 10 Power-5 schools that were neither bowl eligible nor made the 2020 NCAA tournament. In alphabetical order they are; Cal, Colorado, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Nebraska, Northwestern, Stanford, Syracuse, Washington, Vanderbilt.Good luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/23/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Mar 23, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has 11 games on its docket. Three games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. Charlotte hosts New York as a 6.5-point favorite with the total set at 226 (all odds from DraftKings). Atlanta visits Detroit as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 225. Indiana plays at home against Sacramento as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 236.5. Three more NBA games start at 7:40 PM ET. Boston is at home against Utah as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 219.5. Miami plays at home against Golden State as a 7-point favorite with a total of 214.5.Brooklyn travels to Memphis in the opening game of a doubleheader on ESPN at 7:40 PM ET. The Nets won their sixth game in their last seven with a 114-106 upset win against Utah as a 2-point underdog on Monday. They raised their record to 38-34 with the win. The Grizzlies won their fifth game in their last six with a 122-108 victory at Houston as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. They improved their record to 49-23 with the victory. Brooklyn is a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 235. Two NBA games begin at 8:40 PM ET. Phoenix plays at Minnesota as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 235. Orlando is at Oklahoma City as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 218. Dallas hosts Houston at 8:40 PM ET as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 226.5. Two games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 PM ET. San Antonio plays at Portland as a 7.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 233.5. Philadelphia travels to Los Angeles to play the Lakers in the nightcap on ESPN at 10:10 PM ET. The 76ers won their third game in their last four with their 113-106 upset win against Miami as an 8-point underdog on Monday. They have a 44-27 record. The Lakers won their second game in their last three with a 131-130 upset win at Cleveland as a 4.5-point underdog on Monday. Los Angeles has a 31-41 record. Philadelphia is a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 230. The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. Toronto hosts New Jersey in the opening game of a doubleheader on TNT at 7:07 PM ET. The Maple Leafs had their two-game winning streak end in a 6-3 loss at Nashville on Saturday. The Devils ended their three-game losing streak with a 7-4 victory against the New York Rangers on Tuesday. Toronto is a -330 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.Pittsburgh visits Buffalo at 7:37 PM ET as a -220 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Colorado is at home against Vancouver at 9:37 PM ET as a -255 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Anaheim hosts Chicago in the second game on TNT at 10:05 PM ET. The Ducks are on a seven-game losing streak with a 6-3 win against Nashville on Monday. The Blackhawks have lost three in a row after their 6-4 win against Winnipeg on Sunday. Anaheim is a -120 money line favorite with a total of 6. The Wednesday college basketball card has three games on national television. Middle Tennessee plays UNC-Wilmington on ESPN2 at 5 PM ET in the finals of the College Basketball Invitational at the Ocean Center at Daytona Beach, Florida. The Blue Raiders reached the finals with their 85-69 win against Abilene Christian as a 1.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Seahawks beat Northern Colorado, 80-64, as a 2-point favorite to advance to the championship game of this tournament. Texas A&M plays at home against Wake Forest on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET in the quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament. The Aggies won their ninth game in their last ten games with a 75-60 victory against Oregon as a 4-point favorite on Saturday. The Demon Deacons won their fourth game in their last five games with an 80-74 victory against VCU as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. Texas A&M is a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 146.5. BYU hosts Washington State on ESPN2 at 9 PM ET in the final quarterfinals contest in the NIT. The Cougars won their fifth game in their last six with a 90-71 win against Northern Iowa as a 5-point favorite on Saturday. The Cougars won their sixth game in their last seven with a 75-63 upset victory at SMU as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. BYU is a 3-point favorite with a total of 142.5.

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Sweet 16 Value Plays to Win It All

by ASA, Inc.

Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022

Odds all as of March 22 from PointsBetWEST – Texas Tech +1200 The Red Raiders face off in the Sweet 16 vs Duke and a win there would set them up to meet either Gonzaga or Arkansas to go to the Final 4.  The Red Raiders are favored vs Duke and they are the type of team that will give the Blue Devils problems.  Tech is a veteran team with only upperclassmen receiving key minutes facing a very young Blue Devil team.  The Red Raiders are the #1 team in the country in terms of defensive efficiency and they are one of the better rebounding teams in the country which will give Duke problems.  Duke scores 54% of their points inside the arc which is 79th most nationally but Tech is fantastic defensively from 2 point range.  They allow just 42% of points against them to come from inside the arc with is the 3rd lowest percentage nationally.  If they get by Duke the Zags will be a tough draw as they would be for anyone.  However, with the physicality and defensive toughness the Red Raiders play with, they can give Gonzaga problems as well.  They’ll try and slow that game down which is not how Gonzaga likes to play.  We feel there is some value at 12/1 on Texas Tech to win it all. EAST – UCLA +1600 We had the Bruins as a long shot opportunity back in mid February and we’re surprised they are still 16/1 at this point.  They rank in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per Ken Pom.  They are one of only three teams that fall into that category with the others being Houston & Gonzaga.  Starting forward Jamie Jaquez tweaked his ankle so something to watch for UCLA.  If he’s OK, the Bruins are fully healthy with PG Campbell and F Juzang back at 100% after they were banged up down the stretch of the regular season.  We love the experience with everyone back from last year’s Final 4 team and the fact this team does not turn the ball over with very solid guard play.  UCLA is favored over UNC and if they get by that they will most likely play a Purdue team that isn’t very good defensively and will struggle vs a UCLA offense that features 4 players who average between 11 PPG and 18 PPG.  On the other end of the court, UCLA’s defense is definitely good enough to frustrate the Boilers who have had a fairly easy draw thus far facing 2 ranked outside the top 100 per Ken Pom in their first 3 tourney games.  This UCLA team has a great shot at another Final 4.   SOUTH – Houston +1000 We also had the Cougars pegged as a value play to win it all back in mid February and feel that at 10/1 they are still worth a shot if you didn’t follow our lead a month ago when we suggested them at 35/1.  One of only two teams remaining that rank in the top 10 efficiency wise at Ken Pom both offensively and defensively.  The other is Gonzaga.  The Cougars are playing great basketball right now winning 11 of last 12 with 10 of those wins coming by double digits.  Their only loss during that stretch was vs a very good, athletic Memphis team and Houston got their revenge in the AAC tourney trouncing the Tigers.  They just handled Big 10 champ Illinois with ease completely suffocating the Illini offense to just 0.85 PPP and only 24% from 3 point land.  The Cougs face an Arizona team that wants to run up and down the court all day long but Houston will take them out of their comfort zone and make this a half court game.  Houston is also a great offensive rebounding team, 3rd in the nation, and Zona showed a weakness on the defensive glass over the weekend with TCU gathering 20 offensive boards on Sunday.  If Houston can upset Arizona as a 2.5-point dog,  we’d anticipated them being favored to win over Villanova or Michigan in the Elite 8.   MIDWEST – Providence +5000 The odds on the Friars provide some great value in our opinion.  50/1?  That seems out of line.  They are 7.5 point dogs vs Kansas this week and we wouldn’t be completely surprised if they pulled the upset.  The Jayhawks are a flawed #1 seed who just struggled to get by Creighton despite the Jayhawks missing 2 of their top 3 players.  Providence and Creighton split their 2 games this year and that was when the Jays had center Kalkbrenner in the line up.  The analytics guys have been pounding on Providence all year as being lucky and winning too many close games.  Much of that is true, however the fact is they know how to win the close games and they’ve done it on a regular basis.  They won the Big East regular season and have only 5 losses all season, 2 of which were down to the wire games vs a #2 seed Villanova.  The Friar defense has played fantastic in the Dance completely shutting down a South Dakota State offense that was the #1 three point shooting team in the nation.  The Jackrabbits scored just 57 points in that game, their lowest total of the season.  Following that win they faced a red hot Richmond team who had won 5 straight taking out Dayton, Davidson in the A10 tourney and Iowa in the NCAA.  Providence crushed the Spiders by 28 holding them to 51 points.  Should the Friars upset the Jayhawks, they’re Final 4 aspirations look very good with Miami or Iowa State next in line.  50/1 is definitely worth a shot here.     

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/22/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Mar 22, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The National Basketball Association has four games on its docket. Golden State plays at Orlando at 7:10 PM ET as a 7.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 215.5. Atlanta visits New York in the opening game of a doubleheader on TNT at 7:40 PM ET. The Hawks lost their second game in their last three in a 117-112 loss to New Orleans as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. Their record has dropped to 35-36 with the loss. The Knicks had their two-game winning streak end in a 108-93 loss to Utah as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. New York has a 30-41 record. Atlanta is a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 226.Milwaukee hosts Chicago at 8:10 PM ET as an 8-point favorite with a total of 233.5Denver plays at home against the Los Angeles Clippers in the nightcap on TNT at 10:10 PM ET. The Nuggets lost their second straight game in a 124-104 loss to Boston as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Their record fell to 42-30 with the loss. The Clippers are on a three-game losing streak in a 121-92 loss at Utah on Friday. Los Angeles has a 36-37 record. Denver is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 222.The National Hockey League has 11 games on its slate. The puck drops at 7:07 PM ET for four games. The New York Rangers play at New Jersey as a -150 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Pittsburgh is at home against Columbus as a -360 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Washington hosts St. Louis as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 6. Carolina plays at home against Tampa Bay as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.Two NHL games start at 7:37 PM ET. Detroit is at home against Pittsburgh as a -140 money line favorite with a total of 6. The New York Islanders are at home against Ottawa as a -215 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Winnipeg plays at home against Vegas as a -175 money line favorite with a total of 6. Dallas is at home against Edmonton at 8:37 PM ET as a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.Calgary hosts San Jose at 9:07 PM ET as a -310 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Arizona plays at home against Seattle at 10:07 PM ET, with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 6. Los Angeles is at home against Nashville as a -125 money line favorite with a total of 5.5.The Tuesday college basketball card has five games. Virginia plays at home against St. Bonaventure on ESPN at 7 PM ET in the quarterfinals of the National Invitational Tournament. The Cavaliers are a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 123.5. UNC-Wilmington plays Northern Colorado on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET at the Ocean Center at Daytona Beach in the semifinals of the College Basketball Invitational. The Seahawks are a 2-point favorite with a total of 157.Xavier is at home against Vanderbilt on ESPN at 9 PM ET in the quarterfinals of the NIT. The Musketeers are a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 143.5. UTEP plays at home against Southern Utah at 9 PM ET in the second round of the Basketball Classic as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. Middle Tennessee plays Abilene Christian on ESPN2 at 9:30 PM ET in the College Basketball Invitational Semifinals at Daytona Beach. The Blue Raiders are a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 139.

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La Liga and Serie A: Latest Look!

by Power Sports

Monday, Mar 21, 2022

La LigaWell, Barcelona certainly made quite the statement on Saturday, didn’t they?Barca’s 4-0 thrashing of first place Real Madrid in “El Clasico” closed the gap to 12 points. It’s probably still too large to overcome, but Barca is probably finishing in second this season, given Sevilla’s recent form. The gap between second and third is currently just three points. To me, Sevilla isn’t even a top four side in La Liga, but their fast start to the campaign probably guarantees they’ll be headed back to the Champions League next season. The lead over fifth place Real Betis is just seven points, but Betis is a side I see moving down the table, not up. It’s Villarreal that probably finishes “odd team out” as they only have 45 points, nine back of the top four and the Yellow Submarine also has Bayern Munich to worry about in the Champions League quarter finals.So, expect the top four to be Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla, probably in that order. Villarreal will probably finish fifth ahead of Betis and Real Sociedad, leaving the latter two sides to battle for Europa League Conference qualifying. Note that the two Madrid sides and Villarreal are all in the UCL quarter finals. Barcelona is in the Europa League quarter finals. Sevilla is the lone side without any current European commitments as they were just eliminated from the Europa League.The middle of the La Liga table remains a bit of a jumbled mess. I think Celta Vigo finishes in the top ten. Valencia is facing Betis next month in the Finals of the Copa del Rey, which is another automatic entry in next season’s Europa League. That one will be far more important to Valencia, who is highly unlikely to finish top five in the La Liga table. The race to avoid relegation has gotten quite tight. Amazingly, for the second straight season, Cadiz, Elche and Granada are the bottom three on xPts (expected points) and again all may avoid being sent down to the Segunda Division. Right now, Elche is in the best position, six points clear of the drop zone. But Granada and Cadiz are just two and one point clear, respectively. The current bottom three are: Mallorca, Alaves and Levante, who have the worst three goal differentials. Levante, like last year’s bottom finisher Eibar, deserves to stay but it may be “too little, too late.” They have the fewest number of wins in the league (3). Mallorca, a newly promoted side for this season, has been in awful form of late with six straight losses and they haven’t scored a single goal in four of the last five.  Serie AThis is the league with the biggest gap between the top four and everyone else. It’s AC Milan, Napol, Inter and Juventus (some familiar names) occupying the Champions League places with Atalanta and Roma (tied for fifth) currently looking at an eight-point gap.Both Napoli and Inter have better goal differentials than AC Milan and so there could be a change at the top. AC Milan is only fourth in xPts, also behind Roma. I think Napoli is primed to earn the Scudetto. No Italian side is currently left in the Champions League as both Inter and Juventus were bounced in the Round of 16. So there’s lots of pressure on everybody right now.Atalanta’s best path of claiming a spot in next season’s UCL might be winning the Europa League, which they are still involved in, but it’s a tough quarterfinal matchup vs. RB Leipzig out of the Bundesliga. Roma and Atalanta are likely to finish in the top six, which would leave sides such as Lazio and Fiorentina on the outside looking in when it comes to European football next season. Although Fiorentina is still in the Coppa Italia, which is down to the semis, and the winner of that gains entry to the Europa League. The other three remaining sides in that competition are Milan, Inter and Juventus. I think there is a massive gap, reflected in goal differential, between 11th and 12th place in this league.The relegation battle should come down to these five sides: Salernitana (a lock), Genoa, Venezia, Cagliari and Spezia. I think Venezia, who like Salernitana was just promoted for this season, is likely to be headed right back to Serie B. Most of the way, I thought Genoa was also bound for relegation. But they’ve somehow picked up points in eight straight matches, despite scoring only three goals! (Five 0-0 draws). They are still tied (with Venezia) for 18th at 22 points. Their league-leading 16 draws will either be their savior or doom. Still only with a league-low two wins, Genoa is still projected for relegation by my numbers 

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EPL and Bundesliga: Latest Look!

by Power Sports

Monday, Mar 21, 2022

With the “Big 4” European leagues off this week, it’s time for my monthly look at what is going on in soccer. This one is going to be a bit more detailed, so I’ll be breaking it up into two separate articles. Up first: the English Premier League and German BundesligaPremier LeagueAgain, there’s no drama as to who will finish in the top three spots: Manchester City (70 points), Liverpool (69) and Chelsea (59) will all be returning next season to the Champions League, where all three are currently still playing in this year’s quarterfinals.There is a bit of drama for the top spot as I give Liverpool an excellent shot at unseating Man City and winning the league. This is something that few thought possible, even as recently as last month. Liverpool has the better goal differential (+55 vs. +50) and has won nine straight EPL matches while keeping seven clean sheets. They’ve outscored the competition 23-2 during the unbeaten run! Interestingly enough, Man City and Liverpool will square off in next month’s FA Cup semi finals. That means the two sides will be doing battle on consecutive weekends as they also meet in league play on April 10th. The fourth spot in the EPL remains wide open with Tottenham becoming a full-fledged player due to four wins in their last five fixtures. Arsenal remains fourth, however, two points ahead of the Spurs with one match in hand. Arsenal has two matches in hand compared to Manchester United (6th place)  and West Ham (7th). Man U, fresh off being eliminated from the Champions League (by Atletico Madrid) is now even more desperate for the fourth place finish. Of the four “legit” contenders for the fourth spot, West Ham is the only one still playing European football (Europa League), which may have them at a disadvantage, although winning the Europa League would obviously be a “panacea.” Sorry Wolves’ fans, but I happen to think your team is a pretender. There are 12 sides that sit higher on xPts (expected points) in the table. If there’s a Premier League side to keep an eye on in the middle of the table, it’s Crystal Palace, who is in 12th place but 9th on xPts. The Eagles are also in the FA Cup semis (with Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea) and could be the most motivated side in that particular competition as the winner gains automatic entry into next year’s Europa League. None of the other three care much about that. Now to the bottom and the race to avoid relegation. This has gotten interesting. For quite some time now, last place Norwich City has been earmarked for a return to the second tier of English football (aka The Championship). The Canaries are last the Premier League by almost every metric. The next two worst goal differentials belong to Watford (-26) and Leeds United (-33), but the latter just picked up a huge win over the Wolves (thanks to a red card) and are now seven points clear of the drop zone. I think the key factor in this race is that both Everton (25 points) and Burnley (21) have three matches in hand compared to Leeds and two over Watford, the sides they are competing against to avoid relegation. As of now, I think it ends up as Watford and Burnley that join Norwich in The Championship next season.BundesligaAs I wrote last month, I am extremely confident that Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig will finish as the top four. Bayern should be running away with a 10th straight Bundesliga title, but has instead kept things interesting with two recent draws. But they will finish first (GD gap between them and Dortmund is massive, +53 and +29), although Bayern does have the Champions League to still worry about. Leipzig is still alive in the Europa League as well. Winning that competition would mean they do not have to be concerned about finishing top four here in the Bundesliga, as they’d gain automatic entry into next year’s UCL. The race for other European spots (go to the fifth and sixth place finishers) is very interesting. Currently, those spots are occupied by Freiburg and Hoffenheim, who are tied with and just one point off Leipzig for fourth. But both chasing sides suffered bad results this past weekend. Eintracht Frankfurt, a top five finisher last season here in Germany, is also still alive in the Europa League and may view that as their path to glory. Either Union Berlin or Mainz could move up into the top six. Note that Leipzig, Freiburg and Union Berlin are also all still alive in the DFB-Pokal (semis next month). Facing a second tier side in the semis, Freiburg looks to have a clear path to the Finals. The winner of the DFB-Pokal is automatically in next season's Europa League and that could have an effect on motivation the final month of the Bundesliga season. The relegation battle here is a little different because it’s only the bottom two that get automatically sent down to the 2. We’ve known for a while that Greuther Furth is going to be one and done in the top flight. I still believe that Hertha Berlin will join them, even though they just won last weekend to move out of the bottom two. I now think the team most likely to finish in the relegation playoff spot is Arminia Bielefeld, who is still lowest on xPts in the entire league. To clarify, finishing third from the bottom means you take on the third place finisher from the Bundesliga 2 in a one-match scenario to remain in the top flight.

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Early Look at the Final Eight Teams in the Sweet 16

by Nelly's Sports

Monday, Mar 21, 2022

Early Look at the Final eight teams in the Sweet 16  Eight teams moved on Sunday to complete the Sweet 16 field in the 2022 NCAA Tournament. Here is an early look at those eight teams heading on to new venues for the next contests Thursday and Friday.  South #5 Houston – defeated UAB (-9) 82-68, defeated Illinois (-3.5) 68-53 After making the Final Four last season Houston in back in the Sweet 16, pulling away from Illinois in the early game on Sunday. After early season non-conference wins over Virginia, Oregon, and Oklahoma State wound up carrying little weight, Houston has picked up two of its best wins in postseason action beating Memphis in its third try in the AAC Championship and beating Illinois.  Only Fabian White was a significant contributor on last season’s Final Four team as it is completely different starting five for Kelvin Sampson due to two key injuries early in the season (Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark). Houston also had one of the weakest paths to the Final Four last season beating a #11 seed and a #12 seed in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, after an incredible comeback escape against Rutgers in the Round of 32.  Houston’s efficiency numbers are incredible if you respect the schedule the Cougars have faced, now climbing into the national top 10 on offense and defense. Forcing 17 turnovers against a veteran Illinois team was a stunning result and the free throw woes that have hurt Houston this season have not come into play so far in the tournament. This is not a great 3-point shooting team, but the addition of Josh Carlton gives the Cougars the size they lacked last season and this team should be considered a serious Final Four threat.  South #2 Villanova – defeated Delaware (-14.5) 80-60, defeated Ohio State (-5) 81-71 Villanova lost to Baylor in the Sweet 16 last season, competing better with the eventual champion Bears than any other team on the six-game title run for the Bears. Four of five starters are back from that team this season as the Wildcats finished second in the Big East regular season (playing three more games than Providence) while winning the Big East tournament to land a #2 seed. Villanova plays at a very deliberate pace and is the best free throw shooting team in the nation. The Wildcats also played a formidable non-conference schedule despite losing three of four big games, losing close games with UCLA and Purdue, and losing badly in a rematch with Baylor in Waco. The Wildcats did beat Tennessee in November by 18 for a strong result.  Villanova is not an elite shooting team with average scoring numbers from 2-point range on both sides of the ball and slightly above average numbers from 3-point range on both sides of the ball. Turnovers are rare on offense, but the Wildcats don’t have elite height in the paint for the some potential problematic pairings moving forward in the bracket.  Next Up is #11 seed Michigan in San Antonio on Thursday.  West #2 Duke – defeated Cal-State Fullerton (-18.5) 78-61, defeated Michigan State (-6.5) 85-76 Some questioned Duke’s seeding on the 2-line in Coach K’s final run but the Blue Devils have avoided an early upset to reach the Sweet 16, after escaping a very tough game with Michigan State. Early season wins over Kentucky and Gonzaga are on the resume for Duke and so far the ACC has surpassed its regular season ratings with three Sweet 16 teams. Duke has elite talent with four potential 1st round NBA draft picks, but the defense has not been at a championship level. Duke rarely forces turnover including getting only seven against Michigan State while five of Duke’s last six opponents have scored at least 76 points Duke has excellent shooting numbers all over the floor but the ACC schedule did not feature a single top 40 defensive efficiency team and Duke’s path to the final four includes three top 15 defenses still remaining in the region. Duke scored at a 63% clip on 2-point shots in the Round of 32 and that will be tough to match in any upcoming game.  Next Up is #3 seed Texas Tech Thursday in San Francisco.  West #3 Texas Tech – defeated Montana State (-15) 97-62, defeated Notre Dame (-8) 59-53 Mark Adams has done a terrific job in taking over for Chris Beard at Texas Tech and the Red Raiders survived a tight Sunday contest with Notre Dame to reach the Sweet 16 after also delivering a blowout win in the Round of 64. Only one of five starters for the Red Raiders was with the team last and this group went 3-1 vs. Kansas and Baylor in the regular season.  This is the best defense in the nation in many measures and so far the Red Raiders have kept their turnover counts in check after having issues with turnovers in the season numbers. The offense is a below average 3-point shooting team but has tremendous size and scores inside at a very successful rate.  The non-conference schedule was one of the weakest paths in the nation however as the case that the defensive numbers could be overstated is valid for this team. Texas Tech was still the top defense in the top-rated conference this season however.  Next Up is #2 seed Duke Thursday in San Francisco. Midwest #11 Iowa State – defeated LSU (+3.5) 59-54, defeated Wisconsin (+4) 54-49 Iowa State is one of two #11 seeds to make the Sweet 16, relying on it defense to defeat LSU and Wisconsin in tight low-scoring games. The Cyclones are an amazing story as this was a 2-win team last season before T.J. Otzelberger transformed the roster, riding a 12-0 start as one of the great early season surprises.  In Big XII play the Cyclones were less successful and the offensive numbers were among the worst in the conference in many areas. Iowa State scored 59 and 54 points in its wins with marginal shooting rates. With a trapping defense Iowa State is a difficult team to prepare for, particularly on a short turnaround and the Cyclones caught a huge break in the Round of 32 as Wisconsin lost its point guard to injury early in the game.  Iowa State’s edge on defense may be less pronounced moving forward against a Miami squad with good quickness and elusive ball handlers, featuring on the lowest turnover rates in the nation. Kansas would be a potential draw in the Elite 8 and Iowa State lost both games in the regular season to the Jayhawks even with key players absent for Kansas.  Next Up is #10 seed Miami, FL Friday in Chicago.   Midwest #10 Miami, FL – defeated USC (+2) 68-66, defeated Auburn (+6.5) 79-61 Miami is a surprise third team in the Sweet 16 for the ACC after blasting #2 seed Auburn on Sunday following a Round of 64 escape against USC. The Hurricanes started 5-0 and wound up 14-6 in the ACC with a win at Duke likely critical in staying on the right side of the bubble.  Miami has a top 20 offensive efficiency rate with one of the lowest turnover rates in the nation and this was the second-best team in the ACC in 2-point success rate at over 55 percent. Miami only had three wins vs. tournament teams this season and went 0-4 vs. Virginia and Florida State, two of the better defensive teams in the ACC as this group can have off games, including suffering five home losses.  Miami’s defense was near the bottom in the ACC in effective field goal rate allowed and the Hurricanes faced a rather light ACC path this season. Jim Larranaga’s teams have not gone past the sweet 16 since he took over the program in 2011-12.  Next Up is #11 seed Iowa State Friday in Chicago.  East #4 Purdue – defeated Yale (-16.5) 78-56, defeated Texas (-3.5) 81-71 The Boilermakers were able to hold off Texas in a game with big swings Sunday to reach the Sweet 16, avoiding what could have been an 0-5 Sunday for the Big Ten. This is the sixth Sweet 16 appearance for Matt Painter, only advancing to the Elite 8 once in 2019.  Purdue as some of the top-rated offensive numbers in the nation led by future NBA draft pick Jaden Ivey while also possessing rare size with 7’4” Zach Edey. The Boilermakers have avenged a round of 64 loss last season with this run, though in the Round of 32 a lot went right for Purdue, handed a 46-12 edge in free throw attempts. Purdue did dominate the defensive glass in that game and will draw what would conventionally be considered the most favorable matchup in the Sweet 16.  Purdue’s defense is vulnerable, ranking ninth in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency while turnovers are a weak spot for the Boilermakers on both sides of the ball. Purdue was the worst free throw shooting team in the Big Ten at just 68 percent but delivered a slightly better success rate Sunday in the huge volume of opportunities.  Next Up is #15 seed Saint Peter’s Friday in Philadelphia.  South #1 Arizona – defeated Wright State (-22) 87-70, defeated TCU (-9.5) 85-80 Arizona is one of the Championship favorites after a brilliant first season under Tommy Lloyd. The Wildcats have been tested so far including needing an overtime escape Sunday night against TCU, surviving despite shooting below 20 percent on 3-point shots. Arizona’s talent is immense with size and length few teams can compete with. Benedict Mathurin is a star and a strong shooter all over the floor and this team is now 33-3, dominating a Pac-12 conference that made a lot of noise in last season’s tournament.  Arizona is one of the least experienced teams in the nation however with a first-year coach and no NCAA Tournament experience for the starting five with only a few reserves having token postseason minutes at other schools. The 3-point shooting and turnover numbers are not at an elite level for Arizona and the strength of the Pac-12 can be questioned with several teams declining from last season. Arizona will face a shorter turnaround than most this week going from the last game Sunday to playing Thursday with the move from San Diego to San Antonio, playing in the home state of its Sweet 16 opponent. This is a team with all the pieces to continue winning in March, but the group is a bit less proven than some of the other remaining contenders.  Next Up is #5 seed in Houston in San Antonio Thursday. 

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Big Al's NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 03/21/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Mar 21, 2022

The Monday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. Three games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. Charlotte hosts New Orleans as a 6-point favorite with a total of 235 (all odds from DraftKings). Cleveland plays at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227. Detroit is at home against Portland as a 9-point favorite with a total of 222. Two more games start at 7:40 PM ET. Miami visits Philadelphia as a 7.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 212. Utah plays at Brooklyn as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 229. Three NBA begin at 8:10 PM ET. Chicago is at home against Toronto as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 220. Boston travels to Oklahoma City as a 14-point road favorite with a total of 216.5. Washington plays at Houston as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 234. Dallas hosts Minnesota at 8:40 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 230.The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. Boston visits Montreal at 7:07 PM ET as a -235 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Minnesota plays at home against Vegas as a -180 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Colorado is at home against Edmonton as a -195 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Nashville travels to Anaheim as a -170 money line road favorite with a total of 6. The college basketball card has six games on its schedule. Drake plays UNC-Wilmington in the opening game of the College Basketball Invitational quarterfinals, with all four of those games being played at the Ocean Center at Daytona Beach today. The Bulldogs won their eighth game in their last nine with an 87-65 victory against IUPU-Fort Wayne as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. UNC-Wilmington won their sixth game in their last seven in a 93-78 victory against VMI as a 1.5-point favorite yesterday. Drake is a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 140.Northern Colorado faces UNC-Asheville in the second quarterfinals contest in the College Basketball Invitational at 3:30 PM ET. The Bears won their third game in their last four games with a 74-71 upset win against Florida Atlantic as a 4-point underdog as a 1.5-point road favorite yesterday. The Bulldogs won their second game in their last three games with their 80-68 upset victory as a 7-point underdog on Saturday. Northern Colorado is a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 155.5.Middle Tennessee battles Boston University in the third quarterfinals contest in the College Basketball Invitational at 6 PM ET. The Blue Raiders won their second game in their last three with their 64-58 victory as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Terriers won their second game in their last three with their 71-68 upset victory against UNC-Greensboro as a 1.5-point underdog yesterday. Middle Tennessee is a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 138.5.Coastal Carolina hosts the Florida Gulf Coast in the second round of the Basketball Classic. The Chanticleers won their fourth game in their last five with a 66-42 victory against Maryland-East Shore as a 13-point favorite on Wednesday. The Eagles won their fourth game in their last five with a 95-79 victory against Detroit as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday. Coastal Carolina is a 3-point favorite with a total of 145.5.South Alabama plays at home against South Carolina-Upstate in the second round of the Basketball Classic. The Jaguars won their second game in their last three with a 70-68 victory against Southeast Louisiana as a 9-point favorite on Wednesday. The Spartans won their third game in their last four with an 80-74 upset victory at Appalachian State as a 10.5-point underdog on Tuesday. South Alabama is an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141.5.Ohio goes against Abilene Christian in the final quarterfinals game in the College Basketball Invitational at 8:30 PM ET. The Bobcats won their second game in their last three games with a 65-64 victory against Rice as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 151.5. The Wildcats won their sixth game in their last seven in an 82-70 victory against Troy as a 6-point favorite. Ohio is a 1-point favorite with a total of 144.5.

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Early Look at the first Eight Sweet 16 Entrants

by Nelly's Sports

Sunday, Mar 20, 2022

Early Look at the first Eight Sweet 16 Entrants  Eight teams moved on to the Sweet 16 on Saturday with Round of 32 wins in another exciting day of the NCAA Tournament. Here is an early look at those eight teams heading on to new venues for the next contests Thursday and Friday.   East #8 North Carolina – defeated Marquette (-4) 95-63, defeated Baylor (+5.5) 93-86 OT The Tar Heels went 15-5 in an ACC conference that appears to have been undervalued. North Carolina took on four heavyweight non-conference games going 1-3 but saw the bar they needed to reach in a transition season under Hubert Davis. The Round of 32 win over Baylor was one of the wildest games in tournament history, filled with controversial calls as North Carolina needed overtime to win despite leading by 25 points with about 10 minutes to go.  For a team known for its size and rebounding under Roy Williams, this year’s team is an excellent 3-point and free throw shooting team, that takes good care of the ball. This was one of the fastest paced teams in the ACC and forcing turnovers and allowing 3-point success has been a weak spot.  Next up is UCLA in a pairing of prominent college basketball royalty on Friday in Philadelphia.  Midwest #1 Kansas – defeated Texas Southern (-21.5) 83-56, defeated Creighton (-13) 79-72 The Jayhawks tied for the Big XII title at 14-4 and won the Big XII tournament to land #1 seed in what many feel looked like the weakest of the four regions. The Jayhawks did not dominate in the Round of 32 however with Creighton within a point in the final two minutes as Kansas was tested even with good numbers across the board on Saturday. Kansas has all the components to be a serious championship contender, and this was the Big XII’s #1 3-point shooting team and #1 3-point defense, despite surrendering 12 3-point makes to Creighton. The Big XII graded as the #1 conference this season and Ocahi Agbaju was one of the top scorers in the nation to lead the team.  Kansas only had one major non-conference test and they lost badly at home to Kentucky. Kansas also lost a non-conference game to Dayton, and this has not been one of Bill Self’s best defensive teams. Self has a championship from 2008 and a Final Four in 2018 but there have been many more March disappointments for the program that is routinely a top seed.  Next up is Providence in a 1/4 pairing in Chicago on Friday.  South #11 Michigan – defeated Colorado State (-1.5) 75-63, defeated Tennessee (+7) 76-68 A team many felt didn’t deserve to be in the tournament, Michigan landed a favorable spot in the bracket and has made the most of it with a redemptive run to the Sweet 16 as a #11 seed. An inconsistent disappointment much of the season Michigan is one win away from matching last season’s Elite 8 run as a #1 seed.  7’1” Hunter Dickson proved to be a significant matchup advantage in the first two games for the Wolverines, backing up the Big Ten’s best 2-point scoring rate with 48 points so far in the tournament. Michigan is an excellent free throw shooting team and rebounding team as well. This is one of the lesser defensive teams remaining in the field as Michigan ranked 11th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. Point guard DeVante’ Jones did not play in the Round of 64 win but did return for 12 minutes on Saturday and should see a bigger role in the Sweet 16.  Next Up is the winner of the Ohio State/Villanova game in San Antonio.  East #4 UCLA – defeated Akron (-13.5) 57-53, defeated Saint Mary’s (-3) 72-56 After making a First Four to Final Four run last season UCLA lived up to elevated expectations with a strong season but the Round of 64 victory was a very close call. The Bruins had an excellent game on both sides of the ball Saturday to beat a dangerous Saint Mary’s team to return to the Sweet 16 and the path in the East region no longer includes the #1 or #2 seeds.  The Bruins had the #1 defense in the Pac-12 and the lowest turnover rate on offense. Five upperclassmen lead a tight rotation and the Bruins picked up wins over Villanova and Arizona this season despite having a few surprising losses in Pac-12 play.  UCLA does not have great depth and Jaime Jaquez left the Round of 32 game with an ankle injury to cast a shadow on the prospects for the Bruins. UCLA is not an elite shooting team as the offense can go through droughts, but this is a team that has a favorable opportunity ahead.   Next Up is North Carolina in a 4/8 pairing in Philadelphia Friday. Midwest #4 Providence – defeated South Dakota State (-2.5) 66-57, defeated Richmond (-3.5) 79-51 The Big East regular season champions had more than their share of narrow wins this season but despite being a popular fade in the opening round, the Friars moved on and wound up not having to face the Iowa team many penciled in for a deep tournament run.  Providence was the #1 3-point shooting team in the Big East and has made 20 3-point shots in its two tournament wins so far. Allowing 57 and 51 points in those wins has been an impressive showing for the Friars on defense after an uneven year defensively in Big East play, finishing seventh in the conference in defensive efficiency despite the best regular season record.  Providence rarely creates turnovers and can struggle to score inside, hitting just 48 percent in 2-point looks in the conference season. Wins over Wisconsin and Texas Tech early in the season grew in stature as the season went on and this is a 27-5 team, though three losses came by blowout margins. Next Up is the Midwest #1 seed Kansas in Chicago on Friday.  East #15 St. Peter’s – defeated Kentucky (+18) 85-79 OT, defeated Murray State (+8) 70-60.  The story of the tournament has been St. Peter’s who knocked off one of the tournament favorites on in the Round of 64 and like two of the previous three #15 seeds to win the opener, also won in the Round of 32. The Metro Atlantic tournament champions have now nine in a row with great defensive performances.  The season numbers for St. Peter’s offered little indication of this potential as while the defense has been solid, the offense has a very poor turnover rate and greatly struggled with interior scoring this season. St. Peter’s won against Kentucky despite a turnover and free throw deficit thanks to hitting 50 percent on 2-point shots and 53% on 3-point shots while holding its own in rebounding. The Peacocks did not shoot as well against Murray State but flipped the turnover and free throw advantages.  The ability to maintain that scoring clip will be very difficult for the Peacocks and now as one of the central stories of the tournament, the attention on the long layoff in-between games may not be helpful. It also seems likely that head coach Shaheen Holloway could return to his alma mater Seton Hall after this run, though heading to Philadelphia should provide a favorable atmosphere.  Next Up is the winner of the Purdue/Texas game in the Sweet 16 in Philadelphia.  West #4 Arkansas – defeated Vermont (-5) 75-71, defeated New Mexico State (-6.5) 53-48 Arkansas has provided tight games in almost every NCAA Tournament game under Eric Musselman, rallying back from big deficits in all three wins last season before running into Baylor in the Elite 8. This season Arkansas has been caught in tight finishes in defensive grinds but emerging with a pair of wins to reach the Sweet 16 while other top SEC teams have disappointed.  Arkansas has elite defensive numbers finishing with the top ranking on defense in the SEC. The Razorbacks force turnovers and are very difficult to score on inside even without presenting top tier size. The Razorbacks play at a relatively fast tempo and take good care of the ball while usually creating high percentage shots and getting to the free throw line frequently, where they were one of the better teams in the SEC. Arkansas can run into big stretches of offensive futility however and this is a very poor 3-point shooting team hitting below 31 percent. JD Notae brings great energy to the floor on both sides of the ball but routinely takes low percentage shots while only Stanley Umude presents a quality 3-point success rate. Umude is the second biggest player on the roster for Arkansas as he often needs to take on a challenging defensive responsibility. Arkansas is facing a bit more significant travel than most teams after playing in Buffalo last week.  Next Up is #1 seed Gonzaga in San Diego on Thursday.  West #1 Gonzaga – defeated Georgia State (-22.5) 93-72, defeated Memphis (-9.5) 82-78 Gonzaga is back in the Sweet 16 but it has not been easy for the #1 overall seed. Georgia State pushed the Bulldogs for 30 minutes in a tight opening game and Gonzaga barely got by Memphis, delivering a narrow comeback win after being down 10 at halftime.  Gonzaga did not have any close calls until the Final Four in last season’s run and the early tests could prove beneficial for the Bulldogs as few teams are likely to be as physically imposing as Memphis on the remaining path. Gonzaga will take some criticism for the shaky performances in Portland, but they also faced a pair of grossly under seeded teams. This team still has elite offensive numbers and still won despite shooting well below average from 3-point range in the first two games and having disastrous results at the free throw line.  Gonzaga has missed 25 free throws in the first two games of the tournament despite connecting at nearly 77% in the WCC season for an alarming decline. Gonzaga has also not come close to its 41 percent 3-point rate in the conference season while the defense has forced only 12 combined turnovers in two games. Gonzaga has a lot of room to play better but there have been enough red flags to question whether this team should still be considered a Final Four favorite.  Next Up is #4 seed Arkansas in San Diego on Thursday. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, EPL, and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/20/2022

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Mar 20, 2022

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. Two games tip-off the card at 3:40 PM ET. Indiana hosts Portland as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 232.5. Memphis plays at Houston as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 232.5. Three more games start at 6:10 PM ET. Atlanta is at home against New Orleans as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 232.5. Orlando hosts Oklahoma City as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 227. Phoenix travels to Sacramento as a 10-point road favorite with a total of 231.5. Utah visits New York at 7:40 PM ET as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 222.5. Boston plays at Denver at 8:10 PM ET as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 222. Two games conclude the NBA card at 8:40 PM ET. Philadelphia is at home against Toronto as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 223.5. Golden State plays at home against San Antonio as a 6-point favorite with a total of 229. The National Hockey League has six games on its slate. The New York Islanders travels to Philadelphia on TNT at 2:05 PM ET as a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Washington is at home against Dallas at 5:05 PM ET as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 6. Carolina hosts the New York Rangers at 6:05 PM ET as a -205 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two games in the NHL drop the puck at 7:05 PM ET. San Jose plays at home against Arizona as a -235 money line favorite with a total of 6. Winnipeg visits Chicago as a -135 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Vancouver is at home against Buffalo at 10:05 PM ET as a -195 money line favorite with a total of 5.5.The Sunday college basketball card has 11 games on national television. Houston faces Illinois in the second round of the NCAA tournament on CBS at 12:10 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 133. Xavier plays at home against Florida in the second round of the National Invitational Tournament on ESPN at 1 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 145. Villanova goes against Ohio State in the second round of the NCAA tournament on CBS as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 132. Vanderbilt is at home against Dayton in the second round of the NIT on ESPN2 at 3 PM ET as a 2-point favorite with a total of 135. Duke battles Michigan State in the second round of the NCAA tournament on CBS at 5:15 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 145. Wisconsin plays Iowa State in the second round of the NCAA tournament on TNT as a 5-point favorite with a total of 125.5. Texas Tech faces Notre Dame in the second round of the NCAA tournament on TBS at 7:10 PM ET as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 132.5. Auburn takes on Miami (Florida) in the second round of the NCAA tournament on truTV at 7:45 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 144.Oklahoma hosts St. Bonaventure in the second round of the NIT on ESPNU at 8 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 137. Purdue battles Texas in the second round of the NCAA tournament on TNT at 8:40 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 134.5. Arizona goes against TCU in the second round of the NCAA tournament on TBS at 9:40 PM ET as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 144. Matchweek 30 in the English Premier League concludes with two matches on the USA Network. Leicester City plays at home against Brentford at 10 AM ET as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5.Tottenham hosts West Ham United at 12:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 03/19/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Mar 19, 2022

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association has four games on its docket. Milwaukee visits Minnesota at 5:10 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite, with the total set at 242 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Dallas plays at Charlotte at 7:10 PM ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 225.5. Two games conclude the NBA card at 8:10 PM ET. Cleveland is at home against Detroit as an 8-point favorite with a total of 216. Washington hosts the Los Angeles Lakers as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 230.5. The National Hockey League has 11 games on its slate. The puck drops for two games at 2:05 PM ET. Minnesota plays at home against Chicago at 2:05 PM ET as a -250 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. The New York Islanders are at home against Dallas as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Edmonton hosts New Jersey at 3:05 PM ET as a -230 money line favorite with a total of 6. Vegas is at home against Los Angeles at 4:05 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two more NHL games begin at 5:05 PM ET. Pittsburgh travels to Arizona as a -255 money line road favorite with a total of 6. St. Louis plays at Columbus as a -185 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5.Two NHL games start at 7:05 PM ET. Toronto visits Nashville as a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Montreal is at home against Ottawa as a -150 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Tampa Bay hosts the New York Rangers on ABC at 8:05 PM ET. Two more games conclude the NHL card at 10:05 PM ET. Calgary is at Vancouver as a -130 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Seattle plays at home against Detroit as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Saturday college basketball card has nine games on national television. Texas A&M hosts Oregon on ESPN at Noon ET in the second round of the National Invitational Tournament as a 5-point favorite with a total of 143.5. The second round of the NCAA tournament tips off with three straight games in the afternoon on CBS. Baylor plays North Carolina at 12:10 PM ET as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 149. Kansas faces Creighton at 2:40 PM ET as a 12-point favorite with a total of 139.5. Tennessee battles Michigan at 5:15 PM ET as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 136. Providence faces Richmond on TNT at 6:10 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 134. UCLA plays Saint Mary’s on TBS at 7:10 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 126. Murray State goes against Saint Peter’s on CBS at 7:45 PM ET as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 130. Arkansas battles New Mexico State on TNT at 8:40 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 138.5. Gonzaga takes on Memphis on TBS at 9:40 PM ET as a 10-point favorite with a total of 155. Matchweek 30 in the English Premier League continues with one match on the USA Network at 8:30 AM ET. Arsenal travels to Aston Villa in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5.

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NCAA Tournament Round 2 Data (1991 to 2021)

by Al McMordie

Friday, Mar 18, 2022

With the 2nd Round of the NCAA Tournament upon us, let's take a look at how the previous tournaments have gone -- from a point spread perspective.There have been 30 NCAA Tournaments since 1991 (the 2020 event was cancelled due to COVID-19).  Here are how the individual seeds have fared:#1 seeds:  102-17 SU, 60-59 ATS#2 seeds:  75-36 SU, 55-54-2 ATS#3 seeds:  67-37 SU, 55-47-2 ATS#4 seeds:  60-34 SU, 48-46 ATS#5 seeds:  37-38 SU, 35-39-1 ATS#6 seeds:  34-42 SU, 38-36-2 ATS#7 seeds:  22-47 SU, 30-38-1 ATS#8 seeds:  11-49 SU, 34-26 ATS#9 seeds:  7-53 SU, 25-35 ATS#10 seeds:  21-30 SU, 30-20-1 ATS#11 seeds:  18-26 SU, 22-22 ATS#12 seeds:  18-27 SU, 29-16 ATS#13 seeds:  5-21 SU, 7-18-1 ATS#14 seeds:  1-15 SU, 3-13 ATS#15 seeds:  2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS#16 seeds:  0-1 SU, 1-0 ATSFour of the 480 games were Pk'em.  Of the remaining 476 games, favorites have had the historical edge, with a 252-219-5 ATS record.  As a point of comparison, the 1st round has largely been split down the middle, with the favorites owning a 478-474-17 ATS record.Some other point spread categories to note:Teams off an ATS loss (vs. foes not off an ATS loss):  108-79-1 ATSTeams off back to back SU/ATS wins (vs. foes not off back to back SU/ATS wins):  56-89-3 ATSTeams off back to back ATS losses (vs. foes not off back to back ATS losses):  76-51-1 ATSTeams off back to back ATS wins (vs. foes not off back to back ATS wins):  68-95-3 ATSTeams off three SU/ATS wins (vs. foes not off three SU/ATS wins:  41-70-3 ATSTeams off three ATS wins (vs. foes not off three ATS wins):  55-79-3 ATSTeams off three ATS losses (vs. foes not off three ATS losses):  28-18-1 ATSTeams playing with revenge:  26-23-1 ATSTeams off double-digit wins (vs. foes not off double-digit wins):  135-136-4 ATSTeams that covered their previous game by 10+ points (vs. foes that didn't cover by 10+ points):  88-114-2 ATSFavorites priced from -1 to -3.5 points:  65-58-3 ATSFavorites priced from -4 to -6.5 points:  84-68-1 ATSFavorites priced from -7 to -9.5 points:  58-53-1 ATSFavorites priced from -10 to -12.5 points:  27-25 ATSFavorites of -13 (or more) points:  18-14 ATSGood luck, as always...Al McMordie

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