Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Ness Notes (NFL): Two weeks left

Thursday, Dec 30, 2021

The NFL's first-ever 17-game schedule (over 18 weeks) began back on Sep 9th, when the defending champions Bucs eked out a 31-29 win over a Dallas Cowboys team coming off a 6-10 season. We are now entering Week 17 (two games left for each team) and there is lots to discuss about the 'state of the playoff picture.' However, since it's 100 percent likely that anyone reading this article is betting on NFL games, I won't 'bury the lead.' Home teams went 132-123-1 two seasons ago (2019), the worst record since the advent of the 16-game schedule. Then, in 2020, home teams had a losing record for the first time in history, going 127-128-1. One could argue that empty and partially empty stadiums played a role in that. However, that situation no longer applies in 2021 but with just two weeks to go, home teams are again struggling.Here's the dope. Home teams are just 119-118-1 (.502) SU and a MONEY-BURNING 106-131-1 ATS (44.7%). Home dogs used to be considered 'money in the bank' but home 'puppies' are just 29-62 (.312) SU and 40-51 (44.0%) ATS. For those O/U bettors, I hope you've been playing 'the under,' as the tally is 131 unders, 107 overs and three pushes (that's 55.0% favoring the under). The best ATS teams are Dallas (12-3) and Green Bay (11-4), followed by Detroit and Indy at 10-5. The worst ATS records belong to Jacksonville (4-11), the NY Jets and Chicago (each 5-10) and Washington (5-9-1). The best 'over' teams are Minnesota, the NY Jets and Philadelphia, who are all 9-6. The best 'under' teams are Denver (3-12), followed by Jacksonville and Seattle, which are both 4-11. With two weeks left in the NFL regular season, the majority of NFL teams are already in or still vying for the 14 playoff berths (seven in each conference). There are only EIGHT teams that have been officially eliminated from playoff contention after Week 16. The Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks are already 'toast. Over in the NFC, FIVE teams have already clinched a playoff berth. The 12-3 Green Bay Packers, the 11-4 Dallas Cowboys, and the 11-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have all clinched their respective divisions. The only division that is still up for grabs is the NFC West. The 11-4 LA Rams currently lead the 10-5 Arizona Cards in that division, but both the Rams and Cards have clinched a playoff berth. Just TWO spots are still up for grabs in NFC. The 8-7 San Francisco 49ers and the 8-7 Philadelphia Eagles would be the teams heading to the postseason if the season ended today. However, the 7-8 Vikings, 7-8 Falcons, the 7-8 Saints and even the 6-9 Washington FB Teams are still mathematically 'alive.'It's quite a different story in the AFC, where only the 11-4 Kansas City have officially clinched a playoff berth. The Chiefs have now won the AFC West for SIX consecutive years!). Lining up behind the Chiefs, there are TWELVE teams that have a possibility for postseason play. The 10-5 Titans (AFC South), the 9-6 Buffalo Bills (AFC East) and the 9-6 Cincinnati Bengals (9-6) all currently lead their respective divisions, but NONE has clinched as Week 17 dawns. Sitting behind those division leaders, the 9-6 Colts, 9-6 Patriots and the 8-7 Miami Dolphins currently own the three wild card positions. The Chargers, Raiders, and Ravens are all tied with the Dolphins at 8-7 but wouldn’t get into the playoffs if the season ended today because of tie breakers. The Steelers are at 7-7-1, and the Browns and Broncos are both 7-8. While all three teams are still in the hunt, a loss in Week 17 would essentially end their chance of a postseason run. Are we having fun yet? Let me close with a 'shout out' to the late-John Madden. He won a Super Bowl and became the youngest coach to reach 100 career regular-season victories, a record he compiled in only 10 full seasons of coaching at the age of 42 (103-32-7, .750). He is arguably the greatest color commentator in broadcast history (12-time Emmy winner) and surely the most beloved. If you didn't 'LOVE' his TV commercials, then there is something wrong with you. I've never played Madden NFL, published by EA Sports/Electronic Arts, but I may be alone in that category (FYI...I've never-ever used an ATM machine). Rest in peace John.Good luck...Larry

Will Baylor Repeat as College Basketball National Champions?

by Oskeim Sports

Thursday, Dec 30, 2021

Scott Drew and his Baylor Bears won their first NCAA men’s college basketball national championship a year ago with a win over favorite and previously unbeaten Gonzaga. Can the Bears do it again? Early on, the prevailing thought was no. The Bears had simply lost too much from last year’s championship team. However, as the new season heads into conference play after Jan. 1, the No. 1-ranked team in the country is…you guessed it…Baylor. There’s still a lot of basketball to be played, but can Baylor repeat as national champions? YES If you truly believe the Bears are capable of winning back-to-back national championships, now is the time to get in on the action. Despite being 11-0 and ranked No. 1 in the country, the Bears are not among the betting favorites to win this year’s March Madness. Bettors can get Baylor at +1200 to win it all right now. And, it very well could happen. Drew lost four of his top five scorers from a year ago. That’s okay. He simply reloaded. Sophomore guard LJ Cryer has stepped up and is the Bears leading scorer averaging 13.6 points per game. Kendall Brown scores 13.0 per game and Arizona transfer James Akinjo averages 12.8 points and leads the team with 6.3 assists. Adam Flagler (10.7 ppg) gives Baylor four players that average in double figures. Two more Bears average 9.0 or more points. Matthew Mayer scores 9.2 and 6-8 F Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua averages 9.0 and a team-high 8.4 rebounds. Eight players play at least 17 minutes per game and Drew gets the most out of each and every one. The defense is once again outstanding. Baylor ranks eighth in the nation in points allowed per game giving up just 56.8. In one of their more dominant wins of the 2021-22 season, the Bears held No. 9 Villanova to 36 points in a 57-36 victory. That kind of defense can win a championship. NO One of the biggest things working against the Bears and their efforts to repeat as national champions is simply history. There has been no back-to-back champion in college basketball since Florida in 2006 and 2007. Prior to the Gators, you have to go back to 1991 and 1992 when Duke won consecutive national championships. Back-to-back championships are just something that doesn’t happen often in college basketball. An issue the Bears might have is matching up with bigger teams. Drew prefers to play small-ball with four and five guards on the floor. Matthew Mayer, listed as a guard is 6-foot-9. Tchamwa Tchatchoua is the Bears' biggest inside presence both on the offensive and defensive ends. Jeremy Sochan (6-9) plays 22 minutes a game, but collectively the Bears are not a big team. That could give them trouble at times this season. Baylor will once again play through a tough Big 12 schedule. Five teams, including the Bears, are ranked this season. Kansas is No. 6. Iowa State is currently eighth. No. 17 Texas is the best defensive team in the country holding opponents under 52 points per game. The Big 12 schedule could take its toll on Baylor. Let’s not forget UNLV. In 1990, Jerry Tarkanian led the Runnin’ Rebels to a national title with a 30-point win over Duke. The following year, Tarkanian’s squad started the season 11-0. Baylor has done the same this season winning their first 11 games all by at least eight points. In 1991, UNLV did make it back to the Final Four but lost to eventual champion Duke, which ironically went on to win the next two national titles.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/30/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Dec 30, 2021

The Thursday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, CBB, and EPL action.The college football bowl season continues with four games on ESPN. North Carolina plays South Carolina at 11:30 AM ET in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Tar Heels lost their second game in their last three with a 34-30 at North Carolina State as a 5.5-point underdog on November 26th. They fell to 6-6 with the loss to the Wolfpack. The Gamecocks lost their second game in their last three games with a 30-0 shutout loss at home to Clemson as an 11.5-point underdog on November 27th. South Carolina’s record dropped to 6-6. North Carolina is a 10-point favorite, with the total set at 57.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Tennessee faces Purdue at 3 PM ET in the Music City Bowl at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee. The Volunteers are on a two-game winning streak with their 45-21 victory against Vanderbilt as a 33-point favorite on November 27th. They raised their record to 7-5 with the win. The Boilermakers won their second-straight game with a 44-7 win against Indiana as an 18.5-point favorite on November 27th. Purdue ended the regular season with an 8-4 record. Tennessee is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 65.5.Michigan State battles Pittsburgh at 7 PM ET in the Peach Bowl at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Spartans won their second game in their last three with a 30-27 upset victory against Penn State as a 3.5-point underdog on November 27th. They raised their record to 10-2 with the win. The Panthers are on a five-game winning streak after their 45-21 victory against Wake Forest as a 3.5-point favorite in the ACC championship game on December 4th. Pittsburgh is 11-2 this season. Michigan State is a 3-point favorite with a total of 55.3.Wisconsin goes against Arizona State at 10:30 PM ET in the Las Vegas Bowl at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The Badgers had their seven-game winning streak end with a 23-13 upset loss at Minnesota as a 7-point favorite on November 27th. Their record fell to 8-4 with the loss. The Sun Devils won their third game in their last four with their 38-15 victory against Arizona as a 20-point favorite on November 27th. Arizona State raised their record to 8-4 with the win. Wisconsin is a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 41.5.Four games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Three games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. Brooklyn hosts Philadelphia as a 4-point favorite with a total of 217. Milwaukee visits Orlando as a 12.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 216. Washington plays at home against Cleveland as a 2-point favorite. Golden State travels to Denver at 9:40 PM ET as a 3.5-point road favorite. The National Hockey League has seven games on its slate. The puck drops at 7:08 PM ET for three games. Florida is at home against Tampa Bay as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 6. Carolina hosts Montreal as a -320 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Nashville travels to Columbus as a 12.5-point road favorite with a total of 5.5. The New York Islanders are at home against Buffalo at 7:38 PM ET as a -200 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Calgary plays at Seattle at 10:08 PM ET as a -140 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Two games conclude the NHL card at 10:38 PM ET. Los Angeles is at home against Vancouver as a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. San Jose hosts Philadelphia as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 6.Three games are on national television in college basketball with two tippinng off at 7 PM ET. Michigan plays at Central Florida on ESPN2 as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 137.5. Chattanooga is at home against East Tennessee State on ESPNU as an 8-point favorite with a total of 135. Louisiana Tech hosts Marshall on ESPNU at 9 PM ET as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 155. Matchweek 20 in the English Premier League concludes with one match. The Newcastle United/Everton game got postponed because of a COVID outbreak in the Newcastle camp. Manchester United plays at home against Burnley on the NBC Sports Network at 3 PM ET as a -1.5 goal line favorite with a total of 3.

NFL Playoff Picture

by ASA, Inc.

Wednesday, Dec 29, 2021

Who’s getting in? First off, the AFC is an absolute mess. The Chargers, Raiders, Ravens, Steelers, Browns, and Broncos are all on the outside looking in. The good part is any of those teams have the ability to squeeze in with two wins and some help over the final weeks. The bad part is that all of those same teams seem to be trending in the wrong direction. The only teams to even win a game the past two weeks are the Raiders (2-0) and the Steelers (1-1). Miami holds the last AFC playoff spot riding a seven game win streak into the home stretch. The Dolphins do play the Titans and Pats to end the year however, so one spot will be up for grabs between seven teams. The NFC is much cleaner due to the top heavy five teams (GB, DAL, LAR, TB, ARI) that all have 10+ wins so far. San Francisco and Philly hold the final two playoff tickets with only the Vikings looking to play spoiler. We should mention that the Falcons and Saints are somehow still hanging around at 7-8, but they reek of fraudulence. Who could take out the favorites? Kansas City is back to dominance and in back to back years their biggest threat remains the Bills. No other AFC quarterback is on the same level as Patrick Mahomes besides Josh Allen. The Bills are finding a rhythm on offense and you get the feeling that Josh Allen is determined to take the next step after disappointment the past two years. Buffalo also sports the number one ranking passing defense allowing just 173 yards per game to opponents. If anyone can contain the Chiefs track team, it would be Sean McDermott’s defense. The Packers have snuck by the struggling Ravens and Browns the past two weeks and have been bailed out by their defense in both contests. Even so, Aaron Rodgers has still played like his MVP self and has a history of beating both the Rams and the Cowboys when the season is on the line. Tampa Bay will not be afraid to travel into Lambeau again and play physical press man defense. The loss of Chris Godwin (torn ACL) hurts but TB12 will be just fine with Mike Evans, Gronk, Antonio Brown, and Leonard Fournette hopefully back for the playoffs.

A Look at the Current NBA Playoff Picture

by Oskeim Sports

Wednesday, Dec 29, 2021

It’s almost the midpoint of the 2021-22 NBA season and already some things are beginning to become clear. Golden State and Phoenix are the two best teams in the league. Brooklyn appears to be the best in the East and there’s little doubt that the Detroit Pistons are headed for another lottery spot.There have been a few surprises – Cleveland is a big one – and there is still a lot of basketball left to be played. The average NBA team has roughly 47 to 48 games remaining this season. Still, it’s never too early to start looking at the postseason. Here’s a look at the current NBA playoff picture. The Top Contenders As mentioned, the two best teams in the NBA right now are both in the Western Conference – Phoenix and Golden State. With the Suns suffering consecutive home losses recently, the Warriors now own the league’s best record at 27-7. Stephen Curry is the NBA’s second-leading scorer and recently broke the career three-pointer record. Golden State has the best defense in the league and is among the top 5 on offense as well. The Warriors are listed at +375 to win this year’s championship. Phoenix, which played for the NBA title last year, is 26-7 so far this season. The Suns are deep and talented which is why they are listed at +800 to win it all in 2022. The big question for Phoenix will be health. Leading scorer Devin Booker just returned to the lineup after missing seven games with a hamstring injury. Then, there is the whole COVID-19 fiasco that has forced the postponement of games around the league. While Golden State and Phoenix dominate the West, Brooklyn sits atop the Eastern Conference at 23-9 with a 1.5-game lead over Chicago (21-10). The Nets are dealing with their own health issues, but they have won seven of their last ten games. Kevin Durant is the NBA’s leading scorer averaging 29.7 points per game. When healthy, the Nets have one of the best lineups in basketball which is why they are actually the overall favorite to win this year’s NBA title at +325. The Next Tier Reigning NBA champion Milwaukee is also among the betting favorites at +800. The Bucks are 23-13 and third in the East behind Chicago. The Bulls, who have won eight of their last ten games, are a longshot to win a title at +2200. Miami has also won eight of ten and is given +1200 odds to win it all. In the West, two teams to watch are the Utah Jazz and Memphis Grizzlies. Utah is 8-2 in its last ten games and 24-9 overall. They are listed at +1200. The Grizzlies just got leading scorer Ja Morant back in the lineup and have won seven of their last ten to move into fourth in the West at 21-14. Memphis is a longshot worth a look at +5000.The Surprises With three 7-foot starters, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the fifth-place team in the East at 20-14. The Cavs have the best ATS record in the league at 25-7-2 and they are a longshot to win an NBA title at +6600. Cleveland hasn’t been to the playoffs since making the NBA Finals in 2017-18. The Los Angeles Lakers are given +1200 odds to win this year’s title, but L.A. is just 16-17 so far this season. The Lakers have had numerous injury issues and they will be missing Anthony Davis for quite a while with an injury. L.A. may have to take part in the play-in tournament once again.

NBA Positive Regression Candidates

by Sean Murphy

Wednesday, Dec 29, 2021

As we near the end of 2021 there's still a Covid cloud hanging over all of the major professional sports and the NBA is no exception. With that being said, there is some light at the end of the tunnel with quarantine lists getting shorter and hopefully a return to normalcy (relatively-speaking) around the corner. Here's a look at three teams that are in line for some positive regression after slow starts to the season.New York KnicksLast year's Eastern Conference upstart, the Knicks got off to a shaky start this season. However, they enter Wednesday's game in Detroit within two games of the .500 mark and fresh off back-to-back wins. They have a very favorable schedule coming up over the next few weeks (starting with a three-game road trip with stops in Detroit, Oklahoma City and Toronto) and should be able to gain ground on some of their division and conference rivals. I like the depth and balance up and down the Knicks roster (we've seen some of their young talent emerge as steady contributors when given extra minutes) and think we'll see R.J. Barrett in particular take off and lead this team on a run in early 2021. Charlotte HornetsThe Hornets have quietly gone on a 9-3 ATS run, even if the outright wins haven't exactly been piling up. Having moved back over the .500 mark, Charlotte now gets a chance to find some consistency with three of its next four games coming against the likes of Indiana, Washington and Detroit. Few teams were more affected by Covid protocols and the Hornets not surprisingly struggled as a result. After allowing 120 or more points in nine of 13 games, we've seen them turn things around defensively, holding their last two opponents to just 107 and 99 points. Note that Charlotte has played 22 of its first 35 games on the road this season so a favorable schedule lies ahead. There's too much talent on the roster to not put together a serious run in the near future.Los Angeles LakersYes, the Lakers have been one of the league's biggest disappointments so far this season as they enter Wednesday's action sitting at 17-18. I'm not about to count them out just yet, however. Save for a few matchups against the Grizzlies and Jazz (they get two of the three games at home), their schedule over the next month is very reasonable. After Wednesday's stop in Memphis they'll play seven of their next nine contests at home. As bad as things have seemingly gone lately (during a 1-5 SU slide), the Lakers actually check in 5-4 ATS over their last nine games. Perhaps Tuesday's 132-point explosion in Houston (their second highest scoring total of the season) will prove to be a turning point.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, CBB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/29/2021

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Dec 29, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, CBB, and EPL action.The college football bowl season continues with three games on ESPN. The Fenway Bowl featuring Virginia and SMU got canceled because of a COVID outbreak with the Cavaliers. Maryland plays Virginia Tech at 2:15 PM ET in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx in New York. The Terrapins ended a three-game losing streak with a 40-16 upset win at Rutgers as a 2-point underdog on November 27th. They raised their record to 6-6 with the victory. The Hokies won their second game in their last three with a 27-24 upset victory at Virginia as a 7-point underdog on November 27th. Virginia Tech improved their record to 6-6. Maryland is a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at 54.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Clemson faces Iowa State at 5:45 PM ET in the Cheez-It Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. The Tigers are on a five-game winning streak after their 30-0 victory at South Carolina as an 11.5-point favorite on November 27th. They ended the regular season with a 9-3 record. The Cyclones ended a two-game losing streak with a 48-14 victory against TCU as a 16-point favorite on November 26th. Iowa State has a 7-5 record. Clemson is a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 44. Oklahoma battles Oregon at 9:15 PM ET. The Sooners lost their second game in their last three with a 37-33 loss to Oklahoma State as a 4-point underdog on November 27th. Their record dropped to 10-2 with the setback. The Ducks lost their second game in their last three with a 38-10 loss in the Pac-12 championship game to Utah as a 3-point underdog on December 3rd. Oregon’s record fell to 10-3 with the loss. Oklahoma is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 60.Nine games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Two games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. New York travels to Detroit as a 6-point road favorite. Indiana plays at home against Charlotte as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227.5. Boston hosts the Los Angeles Clippers as a 5.5-point favorite. Two more games start at 8:10 PM ET. Chicago is at home against Atlanta as an 8.5-point favorite. Memphis plays at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 3.5-point favorite. San Antonio plays at home against Miami at 8:40 PM ET as a 3-point favorite. Phoenix hosts Oklahoma City at 9:10 PM ET as a 15-point favorite with a total of 216.5. Utah travels to Portland at 10:10 PM ET as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 228.5. Dallas is at Sacramento at 10:40 PM ET as a 1-point road favorite. The National Hockey League has six games on its slate. Three games drop the puck at 7:08 PM ET. New Jersey travels to Buffalo as a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Florida plays at home against the New York Rangers as a -160 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Washington is at home against Nashville as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. St. Louis hosts Edmonton at 8:38 PM ET as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Seattle plays at home against Philadelphia at 10:08 PM ET as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 6. Anaheim is at home against Vancouver at 10:38 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.Six games are on national television in college basketball. Butler hosts DePaul on FS1 at 5 PM ET as a 1-point favorite with a total of 131. Two games begin at 7 PM ET. Auburn is at home against LSU on ESPN2 as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 140. Providence plays at home against Seton Hall on FS1 as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 137.5. Two more games in NCAAB tip off at 9 PM ET. Alabama is at home against Tennessee as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 148.5. Miami (FL) hosts North Carolina State on ESPNU as a 3-point favorite with a total of 145. Washington State plays at home against Washington on ESPNU at 11 PM ET as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. Matchweek 20 in the English Premier League continues with two matches. Chelsea hosts Brighton and Hove Albion on Peacock at 2:30 PM ET as a -1 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Manchester City visits Brentford on the NBC Sports Network at 3:15 PM ET as a -2 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, CBB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Dec 28, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, CBB, and EPL action.The college football bowl season continues with five games. Auburn plays Houston on ESPN at noon ET in the Birmingham Bowl at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama. The Tigers are on a four-game losing streak after losing to Alabama, 24-22, in overtime as a 20.5-point underdog on November 27th. Their record has dropped to 6-6. The Cougars were on an 11-game winning streak before losing to Cincinnati, 35-20, in the American Athletic Conference championship game as a 10.5-point underdog on December 4th. Houston has an 11-2 record. Auburn is a 2-point favorite, with the total set at 50.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Air Force battles Louisville on ESPN at 3:15 PM ET in the First Responder Bowl at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. The Falcons are on a three-game winning streak after their 48-14 victory against UNLV as an 18-point favorite on November 26th. They improved their record to 9-3 with the win. The Cardinals had their two-game winning streak end with their 52-21 upset loss to Kentucky as a 3-point favorite on November 27th. Louisville’s record fell to 6-6 with the setback. This bowl game is a pick ‘em with an over/under of 54.5. Mississippi State goes against Texas Tech on ESPN at 6:45 PM ET in the Liberty Bowl at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. The Bulldogs had their two-game winning streak end with a 31-21 upset loss to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl as a 2.5-point favorite on November 25th. Their record dropped to 7-5 with the loss. The Red Raiders lost their second-straight game in a 27-24 loss at Baylor as a 14-point underdog on November 27th. Texas Tech’s record fell to 6-6. Mississippi State is a 10-point favorite with a total of 58.5. North Carolina State faces UCLA on Fox at 8 PM ET on the Holiday Bowl at Petco Park in San Diego, California. The Wolfpack are on a two-game winning streak after their 34-30 victory against North Carolina as a 5.5-point favorite on November 26th. Their record has risen to 9-3. The Bruins are on a three-game winning streak with their 42-14 win against California as a 6-point favorite on November 27th. UCLA improved their record to 8-4. NC State is a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 60. Minnesota plays West Virginia on ESPN at 10:15 PM ET in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. The Golden Gophers are on a two-game winning streak after upsetting Wisconsin, 23-13, as a 7-point underdog on November 27th. They raised their record to 8-4 with the victory. The Mountaineers won their second-straight game with a 34-28 victory at Kansas as a 15.5-point favorite on November 27th. West Virginia has a 5-6 record. Minnesota is a 5-point favorite with a total of 45. Eight games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Milwaukee visits Orlando at 7:10 PM ET as a 12.5-point road favorite. Two more games tip-off at 7:40 PM ET. Miami hosts Washington as a 6-point favorite. Philadelphia plays at Toronto as a 6.5-point road favorite. Three NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Lakers travel to Houston as a 4.5-point road favorite. New York is at Minnesota as a 4.5-point road favorite. Cleveland plays at New Orleans as a 4-point road favorite. Two more NBA games conclude the card at 10:10 PM ET. Golden State is at home against Denver as a 6-point favorite. Sacramento plays at home against Oklahoma City as a 6-point favorite.The National Hockey League resumes its season with three games on its slate. Tampa Bay hosts Montreal at 7:08 PM ET as a -265 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. The final two NHL games begin at 10:38 PM ET. Vegas visits Los Angeles as a -135 money line road favorite with a total of 6. San Jose is at home against Arizona as a -240 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Columbus/Chicago game got postponed because of COVID issues. Nineteen games are on the college basketball schedule featuring Division I teams. None of the games are on national television. Matchweek 20 in the English Premier League begins with four matches. Three games start at 10 AM ET. Crystal Palace plays at home against Norwich City on Peacock as a -1 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5 (all soccer odds from PlayMGM). Tottenham visits Southampton on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. West Ham United plays at Watford on Peacock as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Liverpool travels to Leicester City on the NBC Sports Network at 3 PM ET as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 3.5.

NCAA Basketball Top 25: Overrated and Underrated

by Power Sports

Monday, Dec 27, 2021

Here’s my monthly look at the NCAAB Top 25 and who’s overrated, underrated and should be ranked (but isn’t).Overrated#7 USC (12-0)#8 Iowa State (12-0)#20 Colorado State (10-0)Look. I understand that if a team is still unbeaten in late December, they will make their way into the Top 25. But none of these three are as good as their respective rankings. At least USC can say they deserve to be ranked. Iowa State and Colorado State are not even Top 35 teams in my eyes. I will give Iowa State credit for being a top 7 team in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. But they are 135th in offensive efficiency. On New Year’s Day, the Cyclones face #1 Baylor, who is also undefeated. Expect to have to lay a large number if you want to play the favorite.Colorado State, who had its closest call (won by three) in its most recent game, is scheduled to host Air Force on January 4th. Can’t see the Rams losing that one. At Boise State three days later may be the first loss. USC has already postponed a Jan 2 date with Arizona where the Trojans would have been expected to lose. Underrated#16 LSU (12-0) Ha. The fifth remaining undefeated team is most definitely underrated. I’d have the Tigers in the Top 10. We’ll see if I’m right as their next two games are against #11 Auburn and #18 Kentucky. If LSU can make it through unscathed, then they play #14 Tennessee. So don’t expect them to still be undefeated by the second week of January, but the Tigers should win two of those three games.#9 Arizona#12 HoustonI think these are Top 5 teams. BPI (ESPN) has Houston #1! Should Be RankedIllinoisHow are the Fighting Illini not ranked? They were a #1 seed in last year’s NCAA Tournament. They’ve played only one bad game this season. Last week, they absolutely destroyed Missouri (by 25) in the Braggin’ Rights Game. Michigan The Wolverines already have four losses, but they are still Top 20 in my power rankings and should have a strong January run, provided they get all the games in. I think these two unranked Big 10 sides are every bit as strong as #10 Michigan State is.

Cleveland Cavaliers: History in the Making?

by Al McMordie

Monday, Dec 27, 2021

On December 10, the Cleveland Cavaliers were a 2-point road favorite against the Minnesota Timberwolves, and were seeking their 10th straight point spread victory. They got it, with a 123-106 win, and moved their season record (at that time) to 15-12 SU, and 21-6 ATS. Immediately after the game, I received an email from a client, who wondered, 'Did I know that Cleveland was the hottest team in the league?'....with the implication that we shouldn't be going against such a team. The answer to that question was (of course) "yes," as I was more aware than he ever could know about just how historically-well Cleveland was playing.Cleveland's game vs. the T-Wolves was its 27th game of the season. And going into that game, it had covered the point spread by an average of 7.59 ppg. To put that extreme success into perspective, consider that never in the past 32 seasons (which is as far back as my database goes) had a team covered the spread by at least 6.76 ppg at Game 27 forward! The second-best was the 2007-08 Boston Celtics, who were 23-3 SU and 19-7 ATS, and covered the spread by 6.75 ppg through their first 26 games of that season.The Celtics were a special team, and went on to win that season's NBA championship. But they also leveled out (somewhat), with respect to the point spread, as they went 43-13 SU and 34-21-1 ATS, and covered the spread by "just" 2.09 ppg over their last 56 regular season games. For the season, Boston finished 53-28-1 ATS, with a season point spread differential of +3.57.With that history as a backdrop, I wrote on December 10 that, "[I]t's safe to say that the Cavs will come back down to Earth. If, for no other reason than that the oddsmakers will (and already have) made adjustments to their number." But that was seven games ago. And all Cleveland has done since then is go into overdrive, with a 6-1 SU/ATS record, and a +13.62 point spread differential! The Cavaliers just blew out Toronto, 144-99, as a 9-point home favorite, for not only their highest-scoring, and biggest win of the season, but also their largest (36) point spread differential. Prior to that game, Cleveland's biggest cover was by 29 points, when it upset Miami, 111-85, on December 1, as a 3-point road underdog.So, the Cavaliers are clearly "history in the making." Through 33 games, they are 20-13 SU, 26-7 ATS (.787), and have covered the point spread by an average of 9.28 ppg. That 2007-08 Celtics team, which went 53-28-1 ATS (.654), holds the record for the best point spread performance for an 82-game regular season, while the 2009-10 Milwaukee Bucks rank second, at 52-28-2 ATS (.650). Boston's +3.57 point spread differential also ranks first for an 82-game season, with the 2004-05 Chicago Bulls coming in second, at +3.25. Will J.B. Bickerstaff's young Cavaliers keep it up? And can they do what the 2007-08 Celtics did, and go on to win an NBA Championship? Certainly, they're an odds-on favorite to end the season with the best point spread differential on record in the NBA since 1990. After all, if they have a +0.00 spread differential over their final 49 games, they will still finish with a season mark of +3.73, and top Boston's +3.57. But they're unlikely to better the Celtics' 53-28-1 ATS record or win the NBA title. But, after that 45-point shellacking of the Raptors, I sure wouldn't put it past them.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

December Check-In: Europe's Big Four

by Power Sports

Monday, Dec 27, 2021

My monthly look at the four major European football (soccer) leagues focuses on who I’m buying and who I’m selling. Premier LeagueAs stated last month, the big mystery in the EPL is who’s going to finish fourth. Arsenal has moved past West Ham and is six points clear of fifth. But that’s misleading as the Gunners have played 19 matches. Tottenham (5th) has played just 16, West Ham (6th) has played 18 and Manchester United has played (17). So that lead Arsenal currently enjoys could shrink in a hurry. A key difference between now and last month is that there are now seven sides with positive YTD goal differentials. There were only four at the end of November. Crystal Palace (12th) and Brentford (13th) are actually ahead of both Tottenham and Man U on expected points, which means those sides have been unlucky and you should probably be looking to play them. One side I’m not buying is Aston Villa, who has the fifth lowest expected point total in the league. La Liga Real Madrid and Sevilla continue to be the most consistent sides in La Liga and will easily finish in the top four. As of this writing, Real Madrid is starting to “run away” with things a bit as they have an eight point lead on the field. But Los Blancos are only third on expected points (xPts), behind last year’s champions Atletico Madrid and, surprisingly, Barcelona. I don’t think Ateltico will catch Real, but they should finish top four. I’ve previously stated that it would be a mistake to write off Barca and though they are still in seventh, they are just two points adrift of the top four and it wouldn’t at all shock if they finished in the Champions League places. A big change from last month is how much Real Sociedad has fallen off. I can’t see either Real Betis or newly promoted Rayo Vallecano remaining in the top four, so they look like sides to fade early in 2022. Athletic Bilbao is a side to “buy low” on, as they have the fourth highest number of xPts in the league. Same for Villarreal, who finished seventh last year and is now up to ninth after a disappointing start. They are fifth on xPts. Looking down at the relegation battle, I remain extremely curious if winless Levante, who sits at the foot of the table, is capable of making a run. They are actually 11th on xPts! But they’ve dug themselves a huge hole. Cadiz, Elche and Granada have the three lowest xPts totals right now, which was also the case at the end of last season!BundesligaAs I’ve said before, pencil Bayern Munich in for another title. Borussia Dortmund should finish top four, although the Erling Haaland transfer talk looms large. I remain unsold on Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen. The respective goal differentials of those two sides say they are both top four worthy, but they are lower on xPts. The candidates to move up and replace them are RB Leipzig (currently 10th), Union Berlin (7th) and Mainz (9th). The fact that Leipzig has yet to win a single away match is stunning. Their next one is 1/15 at Stuttgart, a bottom of the table side. I’m not sold on Eintracht Frankfurt, who was a top five finisher last season. Nor am I sold on Wolfsburg, who has slipped dramatically. Obviously, Greuther Furth will be relegated and Arminia Bielefeld is likely to suffer the same fate. That’s unchanged from last month. The battle for the relegation playoff will be an interesting one as Hertha and/or Bochum could fall. I don’t see Stuttgart or Augsburg moving up much. Serie A There’s a clear top eight, a clear bottom five and seven sides in the middle here in the Italian top flight. Of the current top four, AC Milan seems the most fortunate. Internazionale is a deserved table leader while Napoli, despite recent struggles, should also be headed to the Champions League. Juventus, like Barcelona in La Liga, was the long-time power written off for dead. But “The Old Lady” is already back up to fifth in the table and is third on xPts. Atalanta and Roma are both to be respected. Fiorentina, after zero draws in the first 17 league matches, has shared the points each of their last two times out. Look for Torino and Hellas Verona to pass Empoli and Bologna to round out the top half of the table.

Ness Notes (CBB): Conference Games Take "Center Stage!"

by Larry Ness

Monday, Dec 27, 2021

The 2021-22 NCAAB season opened back on November 9 and now gets set to move into the 2022 part of its season. Selection Sunday isn't until March 13, 2022, when 32 automatic bids will be handed out, along with 36 "at large" ones. The Final 4 is set for Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) for April 2 and 4. That's a L-O-N-G way off but let me take 'a peek' at what's happened so far, as conference play is about to take "center stage!" The AP's preseason No. 1 team was Gonzaga, to no one's surprise. Gonzaga head coach Mark Few has led Gonzaga to 21 straight NCAA berths in his 22 years (2020 tourney was canceled), doing everything BUT win a national championship. However, he's led the Bulldogs into the title game TWICE in the last four seasons. Last year's loss was a 'killer,' as Gonzaga was No. 1 wire-to-wire and at 31-0, was looking to match Bob Knight's 1975-76 team, which was the last team to go unbeaten (32-0) and win the title. However, 73 years after it last played for a national title, Baylor 'jumped all over' the Bulldogs early in the game and never looked back in an 86-70 victory. It was Baylor's first national title and extinguished Gonzaga’s ambitions for end-to-end perfection.Gonzaga stayed No. 1 for the first three polls but when it lost 84-81 in Las Vegas to Duke on Nov 26, it dropped to No. 3 in the Nov 29th AP poll. "The Dookies," in Coach K's final season, jumped from No. 5 to No. 1. For Coach K, it was the 127th time in his career his Blue Devils had earned the No. 1 ranking (UCLA's John Wooden ranks 2nd with 134 No. 1 rankings). However, Duke's stay at No. 1 lasted just one week, as the Blue Devils lost on Nov 30th 81-76 at Ohio St in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. When the new AP poll came out on Dec 6, 8-0 Purdue found itself atop the AP poll for the first time in school history, getting all 61 votes. Somewhat 'quietly,' defending champ Baylor (also 8-0) moved to No. 2 in that poll, having opened at No. 8 in the preseason poll.Purdue's stay at No. 1 lasted just one week, as the Boilermakers lost 70-68 at Rutgers on Dec 9 as 13.5-point favorites. That meant there would be a new AP No. 1 when the next poll came out on Dec 13. Lo and behold, last season's national champs (Baylor), earned the No. 1 ranking with its 9-0 record and overall 15-game winning streak going back to last year's NCAA Tournament run. The Bears won their title last season without ever being ranked No. 1 and got all 61 votes. It marked the FOURTH consecutive week in which the AP featured a different No. 1 school. Recapping the progression, the No. 1 ranking went from Gonzaga, to Duke, to Purdue and then to Baylor.A combination of cancellations and the holidays made for a quiet past week in men's college hoops and the latest AP poll (Dec 27) reflected the light week. 11-0 Baylor remained No. 1 for the THIRD straight week (winning streak is up to 18 in a row), receiving all 61 first-place votes. The Bears had 60 first place votes a week ago but were a unanimous selection this week after Arizona's loss at Tennessee (Wildcats had received one first-place vote in the Dec 20th poll). Things have seemingly settled down (but for how long?), as the top-five remained the same from last week, with Duke, Purdue, Gonzaga and UCLA behind Baylor. In fact, no teams dropped out of this week's poll, meaning none climbed into the poll as well.Baylor is one of FIVE schools that remain unbeaten. The others are No. 7 USC (12-0), No. 8 Iowa St (12-0), No. 16 LSU (12-0) and No. 20 Colorado St (10-0). Colorado St is the least-known of the group, but the Rams were 20-8 last season (made the NIT's 'Final 4') and head coach Niko Medved, entering his fourth season in Fort Collins, returned all FIVE starters from last year's team. Colorado State moved up a spot to No. 20 this week, the program's highest ranking since reaching No. 19 in 1954. The Rams have been ranked for THREE straight weeks for the first time in school-history. However, the Rams have been on a COVID-19 pause since Dec 17. They are expected to return for a game against Air Force on Jan 4 (fingers crossed).The biggest surprise has to be Iowa St, as head coach T.J. Otzelberger was hired in March of 2021 at Iowa State to replace Steve Prohm, whose Cyclones went 2-22 last season, including 0-18 in Big 12 play. Otzelberger made a name for himself by leading South Dakota St to back-to-back NCAA bids in 2017 and 2018, allowing him to move to UNLV. Things didn't quite work out for coach and school, as the Rebels were just 29-30 in his two-year stay. However, Iowa St and Otzelberger have the James Hilton Coliseum 'rocking' again, going 10-0 at home.Let me NOT overlook 12-0 USC and 12-0 LSU. USC made an Elite-8 run last season, finishing 25-8. However, Evan Mobley left after his freshman season to become the No. 3 overall pick of the 2021 NBA Draft. Head coach Andy Enfield made a HUGE 'splash' in 2013 when the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles earned a No. 15 seed in the South Region of the NCAA tournament. They upset No. 2 seed Georgetown in the first round and No. 7 seed San Diego State in the second round, making them the first No. 15 seed to reach the "Sweet 16." Enfield is in his ninth season at USC and won 26 games back in the 2016-17 season and as noted, 25 games last season, However, this looks like the best team he's had in Los Angeles, as the Trojans are holding opponents to 60.9 PPG on 35.2% shooting (3rd-best in the nation). What's more, USC has held ALL 12 of its opponents to under 40% FG shooting, the first D-I team to do so in the first 12 games of a season in more than 15 years.LSU's Will Wade has had some controversy since arriving in Baton Rouge. Wade coached the 2018–19 team to the Southeastern Conference regular season championship but in March of 2019 he was indefinitely suspended amid charges of recruiting violations. LSU lifted that suspension on April 14, 2019. Wade's Tigers won 21 games in the 2019-20 season (cut short because of COVID) and 19 games last year, losing to Michigan in the second round of the Big Dance. He lost FOUR starters off that team but has LSU unbeaten through 12 games.In closing, I'll check in on the 11 teams ranked in the AP preseason top-25 but are not among the top-25 as of Dec 27th's poll. The 'worst offenders' are No. 6 Michigan (now 7-4), No. 12 Memphis (6-4), No. 13 Oregon (7-6), No. 20 Florida St (6-4), No. 21 Maryland (6-4) and No. 25 Virginia (7-5). The other five top-25 preseason teams not ranked at the present time are No. 11 Illinois (9-3), No. 16 Arkansas (10-2), No. 19 North Carolina (9-3), No. 23 St Bonaventure (8-3) and No. 24 UConn (10-3).Happy New year...Larry

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