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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NHL, CBB and EPL Previews and Odds - 01/02/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jan 02, 2022

The Sunday sports card features NFL, NBA, NHL, CBB, and EPL action.Week 17 in the National Football kicks off with 15 games. Nine games start at 1 PM ET. New England hosts Jacksonville as a 16-point favorite with the total set at 41.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Philadelphia visits Washington as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 44.5. Tampa Bay plays at New York against the Jets as a 13.5-point road favorite with a total of 45.5. Tennessee is at home against Miami as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 40. Indianapolis plays at home against Las Vegas as an 8-point favorite with a total of 45.5. Kansas City travels to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 51. Chicago hosts the New York Giants as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 36. Buffalo is at home against Atlanta as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 44. The Los Angeles Rams are at Baltimore as a 6-point road favorite with a total of 46.5.Five more NFL games start in the second-afternoon window. Two games begin at 4:05 PM ET. San Francisco hosts Houston as a 13-point favorite with an over/under of 44. The Los Angeles Chargers are at home against Denver as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5. Three more NFL games kick off at 4.25 PM ET. New Orleans is at home against Carolina as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 37.5. Dallas plays at home against Arizona as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 52.5. Seattle hosts Detroit as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 41.5. Green Bay plays at home against Minnesota on NBC at 8:20 PM ET for Sunday Night Football. The Packers are a 13-point favorite with a total of 42.5. Seven games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Toronto is at home against New York at 3:40 PM ET as a 7-point favorite. Three games tip-off at 6:10 PM ET. Boston hosts Orlando as an 11-point favorite. Cleveland is at home against Indiana as a 4-point favorite. Miami travels to Sacramento as a 2.5-point road favorite. Two more NBA games start at 7:10 PM ET. Phoenix travels to Charlotte as a 2-point road favorite. Dallas is at Oklahoma City as a 7.5-point road favorite. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against Minnesota at 9:40 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite. The National Hockey League has seven games on its slate. Tampa Bay travels to New York to play the Rangers at 12:38 PM ET, with both teams priced as a -110 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two games drop the puck at 1:08 PM ET. Pittsburgh plays at home against San Jose as a -165 money line favorite with a total of 6. Boston visits Detroit as a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two more NHL games begin at 3:08 PM ET. Washington is at home against New Jersey as a -225 money line favorite with a total of 6. Colorado is a -265 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Vegas hosts Winnipeg as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 6. Calgary travels to Chicago at 7:08 PM ET as a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Dallas/Arizona contest got canceled because of a COVID outbreak. Five games are on national television in college basketball. North Carolina plays at Boston College on ESPN2 at 1 PM ET as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 140. Two games tip-off at 2 PM ET. SMU plays at home against Central Florida on ESPNU as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 146. Saint Louis is at home against Richmond on the CBS Sports Network as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. Houston travels to Temple on ESPN at 5 PM ET as a -12 point road favorite with an over/under of 128.5. Louisville plays at Georgia Tech on ESPN2 at 6 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 133. Matchweek 21 in the English Premier League continues with four matches. Three matches start at 9 AM ET. Aston Villa visits Brentford on Peacock in a pick ‘em matchup with an over/under of 2.5 (all soccer odds from PlayMGM). Brighton and Hove Albion travel to Everton on the USA Network in a pick ‘em match up with a total of 2.5. Leeds United hosts Burnley on Peacock as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Chelsea plays at home against Liverpool on the USA Network at 11:30 AM ET in a pick ‘em matchup with a total of 2.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 01/01/2022

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Jan 01, 2022

The Saturday New Year’s Day sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, CBB, and EPL action.The college football bowl season continues with fives games. Arkansas plays Penn State on ESPN2 at noon ET in the Outback Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida. The Razorbacks are a 3-point favorite with the total set at 48.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two more games kick off at 1 PM ET. Notre Dame faces Oklahoma State on ESPN in the Fiesta Bowl at the State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. The game is a pick ‘em with an over/under of 45.5. Kentucky goes against Iowa on ABC in the Citrus Bowl at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida. The Wildcats are a 3-point favorite with a total of 44. Ohio State battles Utah on ESPN at 5 PM ET in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California. The Buckeyes are a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 64. Mississippi plays Baylor on ESPN at 8:45 PM ET in the Sugar Bowl at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana. The Rebels are a 1-point favorite with a total of 58.Six games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Milwaukee hosts New Orleans at 6:40 PM ET as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 219.5. Two more games tip-off at 7:10 PM ET. San Antonio visits Detroit as a 4.5-point road favorite. Chicago travels to Washington as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 214.5. Brooklyn plays at home against Los Angeles against the Clippers as an 11-point favorite with a total of 213.5. Denver is at Houston at 8:10 PM ET as a 6-point road favorite. Utah is at home against Golden State at 9:10 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 222.5. The National Hockey League has nine games on its slate. Three games drop the puck at 1:08 PM ET. Boston plays Buffalo as a -340 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Florida hosts Montreal as a -450 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Carolina travels to Columbus as a -160 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Two more games begin at 2:08 PM ET. The New York Islanders are at home against Edmonton as a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Nashville is at home against Chicago as a -175 money line favorite with a total of 5.5.Two more NHL games start at 7:08 PM ET. Minnesota hosts St. Louis in the Winter Classic at Twins Field on TNT. The Wild are a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Toronto plays at home against Ottawa as a -275 money line favorite with a total of 6. Vancouver visits Seattle at 10:08 PM ET as a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Los Angeles is at home against Philadelphia at 10:38 PM ET as a -155 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Ten games are on national television in college basketball. Three games tip-off at noon ET. Texas is at home against West Virginia on ESPNU as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 122.5. Memphis travels to Wichita State on CBS as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 142.5. Creighton is at Marquette on FS1 as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 145. Two more games start at 2 PM ET. Baylor visits Iowa State on ESPNU as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 132. Louisiana Tech plays at home against Western Kentucky on the CBS Sports Network as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 146.5. Providence travels to DePaul on Fox at 3 PM ET as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 140.5. Wyoming is at home against Boise State on the CBS Sports Network at 4 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 131. Miami (FL) plays at home against Wake Forest on ESPNU at 6 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 150.5. Oklahoma hosts Kansas State on ESPNU at 8 PM ET as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 128. Nevada is at home against New Mexico on FS1 at 9 PM ET as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 158.5. Matchweek 21 in the English Premier League begins with three matches on the USA Network. Manchester City visits Arsenal at 7:30 AM ET as a -1 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 3 (all soccer odds from PlayMGM). Tottenham plays at Watford at 10 AM ET as a -1 goal line road favorite with a total of 3. West Ham United is at Crystal Palace at 12:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. 

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Georgia Followed the Michigan State Blueprint to beat Michigan

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

Georgia appeared in a good position to have success running the football against Michigan in the college football semifinals. In our report recommending to lay the points with the Bulldogs (our College Football Playoff Game of the Year), we identified that the Wolverines “can be beaten by teams with strong rushing attacks that stick to that approach.” Earlier in the season, Michigan State gouged the Wolverines with a 6.7 yards per carry average led by Kenneth Walker III. The Spartans averaged 8.1 yards per play in handing Michigan their only loss of the season. Yet it was not just Michigan State that found success running the football against the Wolverines. Rutgers ran the ball 42 times against them for 196 yards and a 4.67 yards per carry average. Maryland ran the ball 44 times of 181 yards with a 4.11 yards per carry average. Led by running back Zamir White, Georgia averages 5.3 yards per carry with their ground game contributing 195 yards of the 442 yards they produce per game. They appeared to be in a great position to find success running against the Wolverines just as these three other Big Ten teams had done.Michigan had been exposed at times this season against opponents going up-tempo on offense. First-year defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald comes from the Baltimore Ravens where substitution packages on defense are common defensive tactics. Opponents going up-tempo makes it difficult to substitute players and MacDonald has been caught trying to do too much in getting favorable matchups with either penalties or players not ready to defend the play. Michigan was not used to the national stage in the playoffs. They had not even covered a bowl game point spread in their last four opportunities. In their 34-11 victory against the Wolverines in the playoff semifinals on the last day of 2021, Georgia ran the ball 35 times for 190 yards. While they were not as efficient as Michigan State was, they were not reliant on one bell-cow back as the Spartans were. The Bulldogs averaged 5.4 yards per carry led by four running backs who each carried the ball four times. White was the featured back with 12 carries for 54 yards. Georgia's ability to run the football opened things up for Stetson Bennett and the Bulldogs passing game. Bennett completed 20 of 30 passes for 310 yards with three touchdown passes and without an interception. Running the football helped take some of the pressure off the Bulldogs' defense that came into the playoffs with something to prove. Georgia gave up 536 yards in their 41-24 loss to Alabama as a 6-point favorite in the SEC championship game. The Crimson Tide averaged 7.66 yards per game against the Bulldogs, yet Georgia had covered the point spread in nineteen of their last twenty-seven games on the road after allowing at least 6.25 yards per play. The Bulldogs had only covered once in their last three games in a 45-0 win at Georgia Tech before playing Michigan, yet they have covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. This is a football program that would not be satisfied by just reaching the national championship game. Kirby Smart already did that with this program four years ago when they lost to Alabama and Tua Tagovailoa's second-half comeback in an overtime thriller four years ago. This program has playoff experience, and these players have competed in many high-profile showdowns given their competition in the SEC. This Wolverines team was just 2-4 last year. Georgia has covered the point spread in six of their last eight bowl games. They have covered the point spread in ten of their last fourteen games played on a neutral field when the oddsmakers install them as the favorite. That is why we recommended taking Georgia minus the points. Now all eyes are on yet another rematch between Georgia and Alabama. Good luck - TDG.

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A Failure to Establish the Run Dooms Michigan against Georgia

by Hollywood Sports

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

Georgia entered the SEC Championship having not allowed more than the 378 yards that Tennessee put up against them in a 41-17 loss to the Bulldogs. But Alabama generated 536 yards of offense against Georgia en route to winning the SEC Championship by a 41-24 score. The Bulldogs had not allowed more than 17 points in all of their games this season before facing off against the Crimson Tide in SEC Championship Game. Alabama only averaged 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack in that game — but they shellshocked the Georgia defense behind the arm of quarterback Bryce Young who completed 26 of 44 passes for 421 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Only two other opponents passed for more than 214 yards against them this season. I did not see Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara being able to approach those numbers that won Young the Heisman Trophy in the College Football Semifinals. McNamara is a game-manager who did not attempt more than 17 passes in a game until the Wolverines’ fifth game in October — and that was influenced by the Wolverines’ inability to run the football at Wisconsin. Michigan had thrown the ball more than 38 times just twice before that game. They wanted to ground-and-pound — but good luck doing that against the Georgia defense that ranks third in the nation by allowing only 81.7 rushing yards per game — and held opposing rushers to just 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs’ defensive line is huge — they average a height of 6’4 with a weight of 307 points. The Wolverines like to deploy inside-zone blocking plays — but Georgia thrives when thwarting that approach. Georgia only allowed one team to gain more than 127 rushing yards this season — and that was a Florida team that lost 34-7 to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs held eight of their opponents to under 10 points — and they shut out three teams. Alabama only managed 115 rushing yards which were the most Georgia had allowed in four games. Sure enough, Michigan only gained 84 yards on the ground in 27 carries in their 34-11 loss to the Bulldogs in the College Football Semifinals on Friday. Take away the non-sack yards and the Wolverines had 20 rushing attempts for 85 yards for a 4.25 Yards-Per-Carry average that looked like what Alabama was able to produce against them. But the difference was in the passing game. McNamara and freshman quarterback J.J. McCarthy combined to complete only 18 of their 36 passes for 237 yards with one touchdown and two costly interceptions from McNamara. Michigan was not able to come close to repeating what Young and the Alabama passing attack was able to accomplish four weeks before this game. Michigan offense has slowed down significantly all season if they cannot get their ground game going. They averaged only 2.6 YPC against Wisconsin but benefitted from three early turnovers to take control of that game. They only averaged 3.5 YPC against Penn State in a tense 21-17 victory in Happy Valley. They managed only 112 rushing yards from 38 carries for a 2.94 YPC average against Rutgers in a 20-13 win against a 5-7 Scarlet Knights team. And against Georgia, they were sitting on a mere three points until McCarthy engineered a late drive to put a touchdown on the board. Now Georgia gets their opportunity to avenge their loss to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game. Did Alabama’s uniquely powerful passing attack expose a weakness in the Bulldogs that only they can exploit? Or did Kirby Smart and his coaching staff use that game to plug up the potential holes that existed in what has been an otherwise historically dominant defense?We will find out on January 10th — but I have some strong feelings on the subject. Best of luck for us — Frank.

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Betting the Bowls is About Motivation! (Easier Said than Done)

by Team Del Genio

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

A common refrain from bettors during the college football bowl season is that success is “all about determining which team is more motivated.” Sure, with teams exceeding expectations or missing expectations and then coaching changes and player opt-outs, finding winners is as easy as identifying the team that has been motivated to practice and prepare for the game and then playing harder when the game starts. Easy! The problem with this approach is that determining what players and teams are more motivated than another team is easier said than done. In fact, it is quite difficult to assess motivation. Are you watching both teams in practice? Are you inside the dorm rooms logging in the number of hours the players are studying tape in their free time? Are you inside the mind of the players to assess how hard they plan on playing? Motivation is always important. Handicapping relative distinctions in motivation is commonplace. Yet teams with nothing at stake often shock teams who are motivated to win a game to clinch a playoff or achieve a milestone. It happens all the time. With motivation comes expectations, and with expectations comes pressure. Some teams do not perform well under pressure. Making the handicapping motivation game even more difficult is that the bettor has to filter their determination in relation to a point spread. What ifs the oddsmakers have already accurately accounted for the motivation distinction between the two teams? If so, then the bettor banking on motivation is venturing into a bad risk. Texas Tech was supposed to be not motivated to play in the Liberty Bowl on Tuesday. The administration fired head coach Matt Wells last month. New head coach Joey McGuire had yet to take over the program coming over from Baylor. The Red Raiders were on a two-game losing streak playing for an interim head coach in Sonny Cumbie who accepted the job to become the head coach at Louisiana Tech. It could have been easy for the coaching staff and the players to go through the motions facing an SEC team in Mississippi State. Bulldogs head coach was probably working overtime to prepare for the game, as well, since he once coached at Texas Tech for years before he was dismissed for alleged mistreatment of a player who later went to court. Yet, even with all that backstory, Texas Tech upset Mississippi State, 34-7, as a double-digit underdog. The problem with handicapping based on motivation is that pure guesswork. A bettor would be just as successful flipping a coin than guess what is the mind of the coaches and players. Here are some familiar examples of a bettor guessing at motivation but it can be refuted with a basic counter-hypothesis.Motivation: "Team X is playing in the near campus which will basically turn into their home stadium. Team X is ecstatic to be back in a bowl game and their fans will show out in massive numbers, providing a major jolt of intensity, and probably the biggest fan advantage of any bowl game this year."Counter-Motivation: "Team Y's campus is only about an hour farther away than Team X. They would love to pull the upset in Team X's home state, especially as an underdog." Motivation: "Team X is ecstatic to be in this game and I feel like Team Y are disappointed about how their season ended. Put those motivations in a blender and mix them all up and Team X wins!"Counter-Motivation: "Team Y closed out their regular season with an upset loss. Their head coach is using this game as a launching pad for next season with a quarterback competition to be played out in the game." Motivation: "Team X is ecstatic to be playing in this bowl. Team Y doesn’t care about this game at all and is dealing with a substantial number of opt outs. This would be the biggest win of Team X's head coach career and I think his team doesn’t just keep it close, I think they win this game outright. The previous game hangover is real for Team Y, take Team X to cover and win outright if you want to sprinkle some money on the money line."Counter-Motivation: "Team Y's head coach hates Team X's head coach. He will do everything possible to ensure his team does not get embarrassedopt-outs second time in a row. The opt-outs provide the opportunity for Team Y to employ the 'next-man up' mentality while giving playing time to the talented younger players."Motivational differences often become clearer with the benefit of hindsight. Given all the intangibles and circumstances involved in a postseason bowl game, banking on handicapping motivation difference in these bowl games is pure guesswork. At least when the oddsmaker guesses, they have the built-in advantage of the vig. If the bettor is guessing, they are probably losing. Good luck - TDG.

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NBA: 'Capping COVID-19

by Ben Burns

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

It's always been tricky to accurately predict NBA starting lineups. Teams are notorious for listing players as "game-time decisions."  They allow the player to participate in pregame warmups and assess how he feels. The Omicron variant has made things even more difficult. Players are shuffling in and out of the lineup more than ever before. That makes knowing who's available very important. Let's take a look at some of the teams currently dealing with "COVID-19 issues." Atlanta Hawks:With 12 players in COVID health and safety protocols, the Hawks have been especially hard hit by the virus. Not surprisingly, it's had a major impact. The Hawks enter their New Year's Eve game with an 0-3 SU/ATS record their last three games and a 1-5 SU/ATS mark their last six. They should return to health early in 2022. Once that's the case, I won't be surprised if they go on a winning streak.Toronto RaptorsPlaying with an extremely Covid-depleted lineup, the Raptors lost by 45 points on Boxing Day. Things change quickly in today's world though. Less than a week later, they've got most of their players back and find themselves favored against the the Clippers, a team dealing with its own "quarantine list." Also, prior to Christmas, the Raptors benefitted when the Warriors decided to leave all their stars at home, rather than have them cross the border. Portland Trail BlazersThe Blazers are 0-3 SU/ATS their last three games, entering Friday's game vs. the Lakers. Playing without a handful of players, out on the quarantine list, hasn't helped. Relief will come "next year." Washington WizardsIt's critical to pay attention to when key players are scheduled to return. The Wizards were off back-to-back losses while dealing with some missing stars. However, all signs indicated that Beal would return for their 12/30 game against Cleveland. He did. Suddenly, arguably, the healthier team, led by Beal's 29 points, the Wizards won by double-digits. I could go on, as almost every team is affected. The list will change though. Every day. So, you'll need to do your own research, in order to stay current.Of course, nobody wants things to be this way. However, for the time being, this is the way of the world. Just as we've needed to adapt to the world, we need to adjust our handicapping. For me, I find that I'm often making my NBA plays a little later in the day. This allows me more time to read as much as I can about who is expected to play, while also allowing more time for information to become available. Happy New Year everyone. Best of luck to us all in 2022. 

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NBA: Lucky & Unlucky

by AAA Sports

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

Not all records are how they appear. Some teams are lucky, others not so much. This is true for any sport. As we get ready to turn the calendar to 2022, let’s take a look at lucky - and unlucky - NBA teams. Lucky Washington - The Wizards are 6-0 in games decided by three points or less. Exactly half of those six wins (three) have been in overtime. So this is a team we don’t think will finish in the top six. Quite frankly, if their luck starts to go bad, the Wizards might not even make the play-in round. They have only five double digit wins. The only Eastern Conference teams with fewer double digit wins this season are Orlando and Detroit. The Wizards’ point differential is also third worst in the East, ahead of only those same two teams. So a case can be made, statistically, that the Wizards have been the third worst team in their conference thus far. They are lucky to currently be in eighth place at 18-17. Brooklyn - The Eastern Conference leaders are 4-0 in games decided by three points or less. Now, because they have a better overall record than the Wizards, the 23-9 Nets should still be in good shape. But if their luck turns, maybe they don’t finish first? The status of Kyrie Irving should play a significant role in how Brooklyn performs over the second half of the season.  LA Lakers - The Lakers have five overtime wins. To put that number in perspective, the rest of the Western Conference has just nine overtime wins. Only five teams in the West have a worse point differential than the Lakers. Against teams that are .500 or better, LA is just 4-10 straight up. The championship window appears closed. If the Lakers’ luck were to turn, then it’ll be a second straight season they find themselves in the play-in round.Unlucky  Charlotte - The Hornets are 0-4 in overtime games. No other team has more than two overtime losses. There are only two other teams in the NBA with multiple OT losses without at least one OT win. Despite the poor luck in OT, the Hornets still find themselves in reasonable position in the East, in seventh place. But this is not a team you should start blindly betting on, expecting luck to take a turn for the better. That’s because the Hornets are the worst defensive team in the league. Indiana - The Pacers are a team that could move up. They’ve been without their leading scorer (Brogden) for the last few games. But a bigger issue for them is a league-worst 1-8 record in games decided by three points or less. No other team has more than five losses by three points or less. The difference in home and road wins for the Pacers, currently eight, is the largest in the league. If they can start winning road games and improve their record in close games, then Indiana should get into the play-in round.  

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NFL: Lucky & Unlucky

by AAA Sports

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

Not all records are how they appear. Some teams are lucky, others not so much. This is true for any sport. As we get ready to turn the calendar to 2022 and play the final two weeks of the regular season, let’s take a look at lucky - and unlucky - NFL teams. Lucky  Atlanta - The Falcons have a 7-8 won-loss record, but have been outscored by 122 points over the course of this season. That point differential is on par with the 2-12-1 Lions, whom Atlanta just defeated last week by a score of 20-16. Such a result is emblematic of how the Falcons’ season has gone. All seven wins have been by eight points or less. Six of their eight losses have been by 13 points or more. So when the Falcons win it’s close. When they lose, it’s a blowout. Having a 7-2 record in games decided by one possession is “lucky.” The Falcons’ overall record should be a lot worse than it is.  Pittsburgh - The Steelers are another team with zero wins by more than eight points. Four of their seven losses have been by double digits. So things aren’t quite as zany here as they are with the Falcons, but having a -70 point differential, Pittsburgh should feel quite “lucky” to still be in playoff contention in what is surely Ben Roethlisberger’s final season.  Las Vegas - Most bettors won’t be as lucky in Sin City as the Raiders have been in their second year residing here. The Silver and Black have the league’s best overtime mark at 3-0 and their last three wins have come by a total of eight points. Las Vegas has taken two ugly losses at the hands of the Chiefs, leaving them with the unusual distinction of being 8-7, but having a -71 point differential. It would be strange for a team that’s been outscored like that to make the playoffs. Green Bay - For the second time in three seasons, the Packers have thrived in close games. They are 6-2 when the final score is eight points or less. Two of those close wins have come in the last two weeks, though it should be pointed out they were in control most of the way in both games. But still, we think it’s worth noting how the Packers’ season point differential of +59 is vastly inferior to the other division leaders in the NFC. They also have the best turnover differential in the NFL at +16.  Tennessee - The Titans have five wins by three points or less. It must be mentioned how their point differential of +31 is drastically inferior to that of the Colts (who are +104), but Tennessee is quite likely to win the AFC South because they swept the season series. If the Titans do end up winning the division and getting a high seed, they should feel quite “lucky.” Unlucky  Seattle - The Seahawks are only 5-10 on the year, which is terribly unlucky when you consider they’ve scored 306 points and only given up 307. They have two overtime losses. The fact Seattle is being outgained by about 80 yards/game is somewhat misleading as they average more yards per play than their opponents. Philadelphia - Most people would not consider the Eagles, who are 8-7 on the year, unlucky. We do. While no one expected them to be above .500 with a shot to make the playoffs, it would be a shame if they failed to get into the postseason. Seven of their eight wins this year have come by double digits. They have a better point differential than the Packers! Philadelphia should have a better record, at least based on point differential. Denver - The Broncos have an outstanding defense. They are tied with the Patriots for fewest points allowed this season. But while New England making the playoffs is all but assured, Denver is highly unlikely to get there. This is because of a terrible offense … and some bad luck. The Broncos are just 1-3 in their last four games, despite allowing an average of just 16.0 points. The last two games were both close losses, by five to Cincinnati and by three to Las Vegas.

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AFC Futures Snapshot

by Nelly's Sports

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

AFC FUTURES SNAPSHOT With two weeks left in the NFL regular season the playoff picture still has plenty of question marks. Here is a look at the futures market in the AFC with a few possible opportunities to consider this week.  OVERVALUED: BUFFALO BILLS +350 Few teams have seen as large of swings in the futures market this season as Buffalo has spent time as the Super Bowl favorite but also not long ago was on the edge of the AFC playoff picture. Buffalo is back in front of the AFC East but this team has not resembled the team that had a huge run last season to make the AFC Championship. While Buffalo beat Kansas City earlier this season they are unlikely to catch the Chiefs in the race for the #1 spot and will need to go through a formidable foe in the AFC playoffs to get another shot at Kansas City, with the Chiefs looking like a much better team than in October. Buffalo has great scoring numbers but that figure was inflated with shutout wins over Miami and Houston vs. backup quarterbacks, accounting for a 75-point swing.  UNDERVALUED: TENNESSEE TITANS +900 The Titans look likely to finish as the #2 seed in the AFC but this team has the best record in the NFL vs. quality teams, going 7-2 vs. the top half of the league while 6-1 vs. the league’s top 10. The return of A.J. Brown is incredibly impactful for the potential of the offense and this team was in the AFC Championship just two years ago as there is strong playoff experience for the Titans coaching staff and several key players. The Titans have featured a strong home field edge at 6-2 and while they would certainly be an underdog in Kansas City if these teams met in the AFC Championship, the Titans turned in a dominant 27-3 win vs. the Chiefs earlier this season and are a squad that continues to beat its suspect season statistics to lurk as a complete squad that can win against more conventionally impressive teams.  LONG SHOT – Los Angeles Chargers +2200 The Week 16 loss to Houston was a devastating result for the Chargers that for the moment knocked the team out of the AFC field. The AFC North teams are going to knock each other out in some fashion however while Miami has a very difficult closing path as there is still a good opportunity for Los Angeles to make the playoffs, closing the season with winnable division games against Denver and Las Vegas. The Chargers have played the league’s #5 schedule, a tougher path than likely any team that will make the playoffs this season. In his second season Justin Herbert has been one of the top rated quarterbacks in the NFL and with a win and a tough overtime loss vs. Kansas City, the Chargers are likely the team best suited to knock off the defending AFC champions if they get the opportunity.  

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NFC Futures Snapshot

by Nelly's Sports

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

NFC FUTURES SNAPSHOT With two weeks left in the NFL regular season the playoff picture still has plenty of question marks. Here is a look at the futures market in the NFC with a few possible opportunities to consider this week.  OVERVALUED: GREEN BAY PACKERS +200 The Packers are in line to be the #1 seed in the NFC but that is the role they were in last season. While this team is a serious threat for a third straight NFC Championship trip, Green Bay has been blown out in that game the past two seasons. While Aaron Rodgers is likely to win another MVP this season, last season he led the #1 scoring offense and #2 total offense in the NFL. This year’s team is #13 in scoring and #15 in total offense and the defense for Green Bay has been among the very worst in the NFL in recent weeks even while facing the likes of Justin Fields, Tyler Huntley, and Baker Mayfield.  UNDERVALUED: DALLAS COWBOYS +500 If Dallas wins out and Green Bay loses one game, Dallas will be the #1 seed in the NFC, a not so improbable scenario given that Minnesota is playing for its postseason life this week and has won back-to-back meetings with the Packers. Dallas is the NFL’s #1 scoring offense and #1 total offense this season for a profile much more consistent with a potential championship team than Green Bay, or even last year’s Super Bowl champion Buccaneers, currently priced at +300. Dallas has faced a weaker schedule than the other NFC contenders but is 5-2 vs. the top half of the league, the best record of any NFC team (Green Bay 4-3, Tampa Bay 5-3, LA Rams 4-4).  LONG SHOT: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +1600 Only Tampa Bay has more wins vs. the top 10 in the league than San Francisco and this is a great pricing window on the 49ers with the current injury news on Jimmy Garoppolo while the 49ers are coming off a loss to still sit without a playoff spot confirmed. The 49ers play Houston this week as this is going to be a wild card team and the finale with the Rams may not be a meaningful game for Los Angeles depending on how things shake out this week. San Francisco’s scoring differential is only 13 points worse than Green Bay’s and the 49ers have a 5-3 record on the road this season. With two NFC West teams already in the playoffs the 49ers would have a good chance of facing a familiar foe in the postseason and this team has battled injuries all season as its full potential has not been reached yet. 

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NFL Week 17 Breakdown

by Will Rogers

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

BEST GAME – Miami at Tennessee (-3.5)Miami 8-7 SU, 8-6-1 ATS, 6-9 O/UTennessee 10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS, 7-8 O/UIntent on outdoing the 1914 Miracle Braves, Miami is now two wins away from grabbing a solid seed in the AFC playoffs, just two months after a 1-7 start that had coach Brian Flores with one foot on a banana peel and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa packing his bags in favor of anyone not named Tagovailoa. The Fins dominated yet another no-name quarterback on Monday night, and if they can hold serve against a decent Titans team they’ll go into the final game against New England with a chance to vault past the Patriots. Yikes. The Titans, who needed four of the last five scores in beating the 49ers in Week 16, require this one to stay ahead of a slew of 9-6 teams and get a home playoff game.WORST GAME – New York Giants at Chicago (-6)New York 4-11 SU, 6-9 ATS, 5-9-1 O/UChicago 5-10 SU, 5-10 ATS, 6-9 O/UWhere to start with the dysfunctional Giants? Quarterback? Offensive line? Special teams? Soft defense? Take your pick. Fact is, the next meaningful game the Giants will play is a good 8+ months away, and it will be hard to find anyone who wants a piece of this action, even against a team with its own troubles such as Chicago. Both teams will use the final two games of the season to evaluate what they have in the cupboard and what should be thrown out. Wild guess – both teams will have lots of rookies and new HCs come opening day 2022.LARGEST SPREAD – Jacksonville at New England (-15.5)Jacksonville 2-13 SU, 4-11 ATS, 4-11 O/UNew England 9-6 SU, 9-6 ATS, 7-8 O/UThe last two weeks have turned the tables in the AFC East, and suddenly the Patriots actually NEED this win. They’ve lost two in a row, they need luck to catch Buffalo (the Bills own the tie-breakers) in the division, and opponents are starting to figure out Mac Jones. No one really thinks Bill Belichick will lose at home for the sixth time this season, but covering 15 and a half seems like a heavy lift for a team whose offense has sprung some leaks. Covering such a heavy number could depend on the Jaguars turning the ball over 3 or 4 times, and Jacksonville is certainly capable of that.SMALLEST SPREAD – Cleveland at Pittsburgh (+3)Cleveland 7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS, 7-8 O/UPittsburgh 7-7-1 SU, 6-9 ATS, 6-9 O/UFinal game at Heinz for Ben Roethlisberger, who will no doubt try to muster up enough adrenaline to keep the Steelers in the hunt for a playoff berth. Doesn’t mean a lot now with both teams average at best, but Roethlisberger is 23-2-1 vs. Cleveland since he came into the NFL, and undefeated (12-0) at home vs. the Brownies. Still, Pittsburgh is the dog in this one, and for good reason: Four losses in its last six, and coming off a non-competitive 26-point head bashing last Sunday at Kansas City. The Browns, meanwhile, gave Green Bay a good run for its money in losing close, but need to beat Pittsburgh and Cincinnati and hope for some crazy results elsewhere to play beyond the regular season.LARGEST TOTAL – Arizona at Dallas (49.5)Arizona 10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS, 7-8 O/UDallas 11-4 SU, 12-3 ATS, 7-8 O/UThe Cowboys took no prisoners in their 42-point win over the team formerly known as the Redskins last Sunday, no doubt wishing they could have bottled a few of those points and used them this week. The Boys have been the best cover team in the NFL this season but just middling for Over players, but they kept the pedal down against WFT with nearly 500 total yards. The Cardinals want this game but don’t necessarily NEED it as they play the final two games for playoff seeding. They are concerns in Zona about an offense that has produced only 28 points total in the last two games.SMALLEST TOTAL – Carolina at New Orleans (38)Carolina 5-10 SU, 5-10 ATS, 7-8 O/UNew Orleans 7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS, 6-8 O/UBoth teams are in quarterback hell. The Panthers can’t seem to make up their mind between veterans Cam Newton and Sam Darnold, with neither able to generate much of an offense. Who plays in this one is anyone’s guess. Both were booed and had to be defended by HC Matt Rhule, who was also booed. Carolina won’t be getting any sympathy in the Big Easy, where the Saints have QB problems so deep that they were begging Drew Brees to come back for the final few games to keep their playoff hopes alive.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 12/31/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 31, 2021

The Friday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, and CBB.The college football postseason continues with four games. The Arizona Bowl featuring Boise State and Central Michigan got canceled after a COVID outbreak with the Broncos program.Wake Forest plays Rutgers own ESPN at 11 AM ET in the Gator Bowl at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida. The Demon Deacons lost their second game in their last three in the ACC championship game when they lost to Pittsburgh, 45-21, as a 3.5-point underdog on December 4th. Their record has dropped to 10-3 on the season. The Scarlet Knights ended their regular season with a 40-16 upset loss at home to Maryland, 40-16, as a 2-point favorite on November 27th. Despite their 5-7 record, Rutgers got tapped to replace Texas A&M in this bowl game after the Aggies withdrew after a COVID outbreak on their team. Wake Forest is a 16.5-point favorite, with the total set at 63 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).Washington State plays Central Michigan on CBS at noon ET in the Sun Bowl played at the Sun Bowl Stadium in El Paso, Texas. The Cougars are on a two-game winning streak after their 40-13 victory at Washington as a 2.5-point favorite on November 26th. They raised their record to 7-5 with the win. The Chippewas replaced Miami (Florida) after their bowl got canceled and the Hurricanes had to pull out of this game after their COVID issues. Central Michigan is on a four-game winning streak after beating Eastern Michigan, 31-10, as a 7.5-point favorite. The Chippewas improved to 8-4 with the victory. Washington State is a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 57.5.The college football playoff semifinals begin on ESPN at 3:30 PM ET, with Alabama playing Cincinnati at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Crimson Tide won their seventh straight game when they upset Georgia in the SEC championship game, 41-24, as a 6-point underdog on December 4th. They are 12-1 on the year. The Bearcats continued their unbeaten season by winning their 13th straight game in the American Athletic Conference championship game in a 35-20 win against Houston as a 10.5-point favorite on December 4th. Alabama is a 14-point favorite with a total of 57.Georgia plays Michigan in the second college football playoff semifinals game on ESPN at 7:30 PM ET at the Hard Rock Stadium. The Bulldogs are 12-1 this season after losing their first game to the Crimson Tide in the SEC championship game. The Wolverines are on a five-game winning streak after beating Iowa, 42-3, in the Big Ten championship game as an 11.5-point favorite on December 4th. Michigan improved their record to 12-1. Georgia is a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 45. Ten games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Phoenix visits Boston at 1:10 PM ET as a 3.5-point road favorite. Chicago plays at Indiana at 3:10 PM ET as a 3.5-point road favorite. Dallas is at Sacramento at 6:10 PM ET as a 1-point road favorite at BetRivers. Miami travels to Houston at 7:10 PM ET as a 4.5-point road favorite. Two NBA games start at 7:40 PM ET. Cleveland hosts Atlanta as a 1-point favorite. Toronto plays at home against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 5.5-point favorite. Two more games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Memphis is at home against San Antonio as a 6.5-point favorite. New York plays at Oklahoma City as a 6-point road favorite. Utah hosts Minnesota at 9:10 PM ET as a 10.5-point favorite at BetRivers. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against Portland at 10:40 PM ET as a 6-point favorite. The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. Edmonton visits New Jersey at 1:08 PM ET as a -150 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Vegas hosts Anaheim at 3:08 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Tampa Bay is at home against the New York Rangers at 7:08 PM ET as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 6. Washington plays at Detroit as a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Three games got postponed because of COVID: Pittsburgh/Ottawa; Colorado/Dallas; Winnipeg/Calgary.Sixteen games are on the college basketball schedule involving Division I teams. None of the games are on national television.

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