Articles

2022 New Mexico St. Aggies Preview

by Matt Fargo

Tuesday, Aug 02, 2022

New Mexico St. Aggies2021-22 Season Record 2-10 (N/A) - 7-5-0 ATS - 7-5-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 3Defense - 9OverviewWhile some teams such as Massachusetts and Connecticut are in the running for the worst football programs in the country, New Mexico St. takes the cake if looking more long term. There was a winning season in 2017 in the Aggies final season in the Sun Belt Conference where it went 7-6 and since 2003, they have gone a staggering 54-157 and that 2017 Arizona Bowl has been their only one since 1960. They have not been able to find a home as they have been an Independent twice, including currently, to go along with a couple stints in the SBC and an eight-year run in the WAC. The good news is, great news actually, is that Jerry Kill is on the sidelines once again after numerous health problems took him from coaching for a few years after being at Minnesota but came back as an interim coach at TCU last year. The hope is a great pedigree will bring some sort of turnaround. OffenseThe offense has remained relatively ineffective over the last few years and last season, New Mexico St. finished No. 90 in total offense and No. 104 in scoring offense and those are boosted from a huge performance against Massachusetts in the season finale. The Aggies are pretty much starting over here and that is not a bad thing as they have only three starters back which is part of the No. 129 ranked returning production offense. Kill is in place to turn around a running game that averaged 100.4 ypg, which was No. 104 in the country, and having lost its leading rusher, the Aggies turn to a pair of transplants to get it going. The offensive line is the most experienced group where those three starters return so this is a good building block. Quarterback is up in the air with a few players vying for the starting job who will be throwing to basically a brand new receiving corps. DefenseIf you can call it a strength, the defense should be just that this season with nine starters back and a returning production ranking of No. 32. Last season was a disaster as the Aggies were No. 126 in total defense and No. 128 in scoring defense but the experience should pay off with some major improvements showing. The linebackers are in great shape as Trevor Brohard and Chris Ojoh, who combined for 144 tackles, eight sacks and four forced fumbles, are back in the middle to shore up a bad rushing defense and improve the pass rush around them that was No. 112 in the nation with 18 sacks. Donovan King was second in sacks with 2.5 and he will anchor a defensive line that is big and experienced. The passing defense was second to last in efficiency but should be much better with a pair of excellent returning corners and safety help coming through the transfer portal. 2022 Season OutlookOf all the new 2022 coaching hires, Kill has to be near the top of the list. He succeeded at Northern Illinois and had Minnesota going in a positive direction before seizure problems forced him to take time off but he came back as an assistant at Rutgers, Virginia Tech and TCU and now looks to give the Aggies a positive push. This team will be better across the board but how that turns into wins is still to be determined. The early portion of the schedule could not be much worse for a young team trying to find an identity as they open with five games against bowl teams from last season but there is a stretch of four straight home games in September/October and then dates with Lamar and Massachusetts late in the season. The O/U win total is set at 3 and the arrival of Kill is good for at least one upset but it is hard to back the over with a lot of unknowns still. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 08/02/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Aug 02, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features MLB action.Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Colorado Rockies visit the San Diego Padres in the opening game of their doubleheader at 4:10 PM ET. Ryan Feltner takes the ball for the Rockies to pitch against Yu Darvish for the Padres. The Miami Marlins host the Cincinnati Reds at 6:40 PM ET. The Marlins give the ball to Braxton Garrett to pitch against the Reds’ Graham Ashcraft. Miami is a -130 money line favorite with the total set at 7.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET. New York travels to Washington with Jacob DeGrom coming off the disabled list to pitch for the Mets against Cory Abbott for the Nationals. The Mets are a -295 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. New York plays at home against Seattle with the Yankees tapping Jameson Taillon to pitch against the Mariners’ Logan Gilbert. The Yankees are a -165 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Milwaukee is at Pittsburgh with Corbin Burnes taking the mound for the Brewers to pitch against Bryse Wilson for the Pirates. The Brewers are a -255 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5.Two MLB games start at 7:10 PM ET. Toronto travels to Tampa Bay to play with the Blue Jays turning to Kevin Gausman to battle against the Rays’ Drew Rasmussen. The Blue Jays are a -145 money line road favorite with a total of 7.5. Cleveland plays at home against Arizona with Triston McKenzie on the mound for the Guardians against Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks. The Guardians are a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies at 7:20 PM ET. Spencer Strider gets the ball for the Braves to pitch against Nick Nelson for the Phillies. Atlanta is a -225 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Detroit Tigers at 7:40 PM ET. The Twins turn to Chris Archer in their starting rotation to pitch against the Tigers’ Matt Manning. Minnesota is a -190 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The St. Louis Cardinals are at home against the Chicago Cubs at 7:45 PM ET. Adam Wainwright takes the hill for the Cardinals against Keegan Thompson for the Cubs. St. Louis is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Texas Rangers host the Baltimore Orioles at 8:05 PM ET. The Rangers tap Spencer Howard in their starting rotation to pitch against the Orioles’ Jordan Lyles. Texas is a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games begin at 8:10 PM ET. Chicago plays at home against Kansas City with Lucas Giolito pitching for the White Sox against Brady Keller for the Royals. The White Sox are a -165 money line favorite with a total of 8. Houston hosts Boston with the Astros tapping Cristian Javier to battle against the Red Sox’s Kutter Crawford. The Astros are a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Angels are at home against the Oakland A’s at 9:38 PM ET. Noah Syndergaard takes the mound for the Angels to duel against Cole Irvin for the A’s. Los Angeles is a -120 money line favorite with a total of 7. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit San Francisco to play the Giants on TBS at 9:45 PM ET. The Dodgers turn to Tyler Anderson in their starting rotation to pitch against the Giants’ Alex Wood. Los Angeles is a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Rockies play against the Padres in the nightcap of their doubleheader at 10:10 PM ET. Jose Urena pitches for Colorado against Reiss Knehr for the Padres. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 08/01/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Aug 01, 2022

The Monday sports card features MLB action.Major League Baseball has ten games on its schedule. The Cincinnati Reds travel to Miami to play the Marlins at 6:40 PM ET. Hunter Greene takes the mound for the Reds to pitch against a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Marlins. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 PM ET. New York plays at Washington with the Mets turning to Max Scherzer to duel against the Nationals’ Patrick Corbin. The Mets are a -230 money line road favorite with the total set at 7.5 (all odds from DraftKings). New York is at home against Seattle, with Domingo German taking the ball for the Yankees against Marco Gonzales for the Mariners. The Yankees are a -170 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.The Cleveland Guardians host the Arizona Diamondbacks at 7:10 PM ET. The Guardians tap Cal Quantrill as their starting pitcher to face the Diamondbacks’ Zach Davies. The Detroit Tigers travel to Minnesota to play the Twins at 7:40 PM ET. Tarik Skubal gets the pitching assignment for the Tigers against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Twins. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Baltimore Orioles at 8:05 PM ET. The Rangers turn to Jon Gray to battle against the Orioles’ Spenser Watkins. Texas is a -155 money line favorite with a total of 8. Two MLB games start at 8:10 PM ET. Chicago is at home against Kansas City, with Michael Kopech pitching for the White Sox against Brady Keller for the Royals. The White Sox are a -170 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.The Houston Astros host the Boston Red Sox on ESPN in the second game that begins at 8:10 PM ET. The Astros won for the third time in their last four games with a 3-2 victory in 10 innings against Seattle on Sunday. Houston is in first place in the AL West with a 67-36 record. They are 12 games ahead of the Mariners, who reside in second place. The Red Sox had lost four of their previous five games before beating Milwaukee yesterday, 7-2. Boston is in last place in the AL East with a 51-52 record. They are 3 1/2 games behidn Tampa Bay for third wildcard spot in the American League playoff race. The Astros' Luis Garcia takes the mound to pitch against the Red Sox's Nathan Eovaldi. Houston is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8.5.The Los Angeles Dodgers play at San Francisco against the Giants at 9:40 PM ET. Andrew Heaney takes the hill for the Dodgers to pitch against Logan Webb for the Giants. Los Angeles is a -120 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The San Diego Padres are at home against the Colorado Rockies at 9:45 PM ET. The Padres turn to Mike Clevinger to pitch against the Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela. San Diego is a -225 money line favorite with a total of 7.5.

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Addition by Subtraction, Part Two - Could Green Bay Get Better without Davante Adams?

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Jul 31, 2022

In my previous post, I considered how the Kansas City Chiefs would be learning to live life without wide receiver Tyreek Hill this season. The Green Bay Packers face a similar challenge as well this year. The Packers traded Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders in their offseason after he requested to be moved given uncertainty regarding how much longer Aaron Rodgers plans to keep playing. Hill caught 111 balls last year for 1239 receiving yards and nine touchdowns for the Chiefs last season. Adams was even better with 123 receptions for 1553 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. At first — and second glance — it may seem absurd to suggest that the Chiefs and Packers’ offenses may be better off in the long run after losing such productive players. But both of these potent offenses stalled at times last year despite having elite quarterbacks and top-level weapons like Hill and Adams. These experiences last year offer an interesting comparison that just might illuminate why both organizations were comfortable moving on from two of the very best wideouts in the NFL.Green Bay lost at home in the NFC Championship Game to San Francisco by a 13-10 score despite the 49ers failing to score an offensive touchdown. It was the second-straight time that Aaron Rodgers saw his team get upset at home at Lambeau Field in the postseason. While the Packers had a 13-4 record in the regular season (while feasting on the weak NFC North competition), they only outgained their opponents by +37.4 net Yards-Per-Game. Rodgers has won two-straight Most Valuable Player Awards, but he has underachieved in the playoffs once again. Since leading Green Bay to the Super Bowl twelve years ago, Rodgers has a 7-9 record in his 16 playoff games. Firing Mike McCarthy and bringing in a head coach who had lunch once with Sean McVay was supposed to be the solution for the Packers’ offense when they hired  Matt LeFleur in 2019. But despite a 39-10 regular season record, the offense has stagnated for this team in the playoffs. In the case of the Chiefs, I argued that the allure of trying to get the ball to Hill was too intoxicating for Mahomes even when defenses overcompensated by playing two-high safety looks. I think the dynamic is similar for Rodgers when it comes to Adams, albeit for different reasons. The now 38-year-old veteran seems to have become finicky in his later years in the league. His “trust” factor with his wide receivers seems to be much higher than it is for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning back in his day who both seemed to need a few workout sessions before being comfortable in throwing the ball to (wide open) secondary targets. Of course, Brady and Manning are notorious for vigorous offseason programs designed to facilitate this trust and comfort. That’s not necessarily Rodgers’ thing. He seems to need years of experience and familiarity with his wide receivers before he develops trust. That helps explain why he drew a line in the sand last year for management to support his wishes by acquiring former Packer Randall Cobb as a free agent from Dallas despite his being on the wrong side of 30 years old. Cobb caught 28 balls for 375 yards last year. Like Mahomes being enthralled with the electric plays he connected with Hill on a frequent basis, it is easy to understand why Rodgers would key on Adams. The now-former Packer has great hands with a huge catch-radius and runs very precise routes. But when it becomes clear to everyone — including the 49ers defense and the bettors backing the Packers in the NFC Championship Game — that Rodgers is either going to throw the ball to Adams, running back, Aaron Jones, or an occasional lob to the 37-year-old tight end Marcedes Lewis, good defenses are capable enough to stop that. The Kansas City offense looks poised to get back to relying on schemes over talent this season. In Green Bay, the Packers will likely make a similar transition out of necessity. Like a parent hiding the video game console to get their child to do their homework, Rodgers will have to find new receivers to move the ball downfield if he wants to continue counting to throw the football in 61% of their snaps. Allen Lazard has the potential to step up as a primary option. Second-round pick Christian Watson from North Dakota State has demonstrated flashes of brilliance in college. Amari Rodgers is a second-year player from Clemson who was drafted with fanfare but only caught four balls last year. Sammy Watkins was signed as a free agent from Baltimore with still tremendous albeit unfulfilled upside. Cobb is still around, as is Jones and A.J. Dillon catching balls out of the backfield. I am more optimistic about the Kansas City offense than I am about the Packers’ offense at this early point of the season — but the Green Bay defense is significantly better than the Chiefs’ defense right now. Losing talents like Adams and Hill is tough. But in a league that is lauded for rule changes that favor offenses and with offensive coaches given so much adulation for their innate talent to draw up plays, it is surprising to observe so much skepticism regarding the prospects for both these offenses despite the likely increased reliance on schemes and fundamental play-calling this season. Best of luck — Frank.

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Addition by Subtraction, Part One/ Could Kansas City Get Better without Tyreek Hill?

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Jul 31, 2022

The Kansas City Chiefs will be learning to live life without one of the top wide receivers in the business this season. The Chiefs declined to outbid the services for Tyreek Hill who signed with the Miami Dolphins in the offseason. Hill caught 111 balls last year for 1239 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Adams was even better with 123 receptions for 1553 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. At first — and second glance — it may seem absurd to suggest that the Chiefs’ offense may be better off in the long run after losing such a productive player. But, there is a case to be made. Kansas City blew a 21-3 halftime lead against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game to lose in overtime by a 27-24 score. Only scoring a field goal in the second half against the Bengals defense despite playing at home at Arrowhead Stadium is a concern. While their 28.2 Points-Per-Game scoring average and 396.8 total Yards-Per-Game tally were both ranked top-four in the league, both those marks were a decline from their 2020-21 averages. Patrick Mahomes averaged 284.6 passing YPG which was the lowest mark in his career. His 98.5 Passer Rating ranked only 10th in the NFL and was his lowest mark in his career as well. This all happened despite Mahomes playing behind a rebuilt offensive line that was much improved versus the unit that could not protect him in the 2021 Super Bowl against Tampa Bay. So, what gives?Opposing defenses began to find success against Mahomes by plying two-high safety coverages. In the copy-cat NFL, Mahomes began facing these defenses that were comfortable taking away deep balls week-after-week. Only 14.6% of the passes from Mahomes resulted in a reception of at least 15 yards, ranking 19th in the NFL. The freakish ability for Mahomes to make something about of nothing from broken plays was being taken away by these two-high safeties and dime defenses with six or more defensive backs. The play of the Chiefs defense did not help matters, especially early in the year before the club acquired Melvin Ingram for their defensive line which allowed Chris Jones to move back to his more comfortable interior of the line. Mahomes probably felt pressure to make something happen with his team trailing, but that may explain why Kansas City committed 25 turnovers which was their highest number since 2012. Mahomes has gotten very comfortable looking for Hill when he got into trouble. Hard to blame him given how great Hill is. The longer Mahomes could extend the play with his legs, the more likely the speedy Hill could find daylight and get open — and connecting on those video game plays had to be exhilarating. But the concern for many observing Mahomes was that he was too quick to abandon ship in the pocket and get into video game mode. This is where removing the temptation of what Hill offers may serve Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense in the long run. To be clear, the primary consideration for the Chiefs in not resigning Hill was the high premium he was finding on the open market that became a boon for wide receivers in the offseason. Kansas City could not afford the big contracts of Mahomes, Hill, tight end Travis Kelce while still making the moves they needed to make to improve their defense which included the need to replace three starters in the defensive backfield. But head coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy have some exciting opportunities with their offense in this new era without Hill. Mahomes breakout out of the pocket should be Plan C or D, not Plan B as it became in the last few years. Reid and Bienemy want Mahomes to distribute the football quickly to receivers in space. Losing the Hill temptation helps the offense return to these fundamentals. The team has replaced Hill with several diverse talents than can help Mahomes spread the ball better than he has in the past. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a free agent signing from Green Bay who can provide the deep threat that Hill offered while adding intriguing size from his 6’4 frame. Valdes-Scantling is also an outstanding blocker. JuJu Smith-Schuster was signed from Pittsburgh to offer a reliable set of hands operating from the slot. Second-round pick Skyy Moore from Western Michigan offers the high-level route running that Hill provided. Josh Gordon remains on the roster with huge upside still if can overcome his problems off the field. Mecole Hardman Jr. is in his contract year and still has the speed that attracted them to draft him as a complement to Hill three years ago. And the number one option remains Kelce who caught 92 balls for 1125 yards with nine touchdowns last year. Reid and Bieniemy have to be confident that they can design plays that get these receivers open quickly. Rather than keying in on Hill, the Chiefs’ offense will improve if Mahomes successfully spreads the ball out more this season. Defenses will offer double-coverage against Kelce (still) but the offense has too much speed and should be able to punish that (understandable) decision. It is understandable why Mahomes began leaning on his talent. If the Kansas City offense can get back to relying first and foremost on their schemes, then they should be able to avoid blackouts like they experienced in the second half in the AFC Championship Game. Then, watch out. Best of luck — Frank.

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NFL 2022 NFC East Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Sunday, Jul 31, 2022

NFC East Division Win Total / Preview for 2022 NFLEast:Dallas Cowboys – Current odds are 10 flat. Hard to peg this team. This article is not necessarily about projecting win totals but more so just a quick preview of each team. That said, I would have to say this one sounds about right at 10. Still the most talented roster in the NFC East, with Philly a close second, but the loss of WR Amare Cooper could hurt this season. Also, lost a starting offense lineman in La’el Collins going to Bengals.New York Giants – Current odds are 7 under. Current win total is 7 and the juice is heavy on the under which I would have to agree with going on the low side of this total. QB situation a major question mark with Daniel Jones a possible bust as a high draft pick and now journeyman Tyrod Taylor in the mix. Lost some personnel from secondary. New head coach too so a learning curve for the team. RB Saquan Barkley just can not seem to stay healthy. Giants have not won more than 6 games since the 2016 season!Philadelphia Eagles – Current odds are 9.5 over. Current win total 9.5 and the juice is heavy on the over which I would have to agree with going on the high side of this total. Philly considered to have one of the easiest schedules in the league and had the #1 rushing attack last season. That strong ground game will help the continued growth of Jalen Hurts at QB. Also helping him is the addition of WR AJ Brown. Washington Commanders – Current odds are 8 flat. The Commanders are a hard team to gauge. One even has to wonder if the off the field distractions with owner Dan Snyder are also going to hold this team back. I would say a .500 season sounds about right for this team. Carson Wentz is back in the NFC East at QB for the Commanders and how quickly some of Washington’s draft choice develop around him could be a key for this team as well. But I do not trust the defense. They struggled quite a bit last season and they need more than just a healthy Chase Young to return if they are to truly make great strides on that side of the ball. 

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NFL 2022 NFC West Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Sunday, Jul 31, 2022

NFC West Division Win Total/Preview for 2022 NFLWest:Arizona Cardinals – Current odds are 8.5 flat. The Cardinals slumped after a red hot first half of the season last year. This win total seems about right to me because this team still has a potent offense but the defense really lost some key guys and depth in the off-season. Perhaps the best way to look at the Cardinals is to look for overs in their games but do note that WR De’Andre Hopkins is suspended for the first 6 games of the new season. Los Angeles Rams – Current odds are 10.5 flat. I am generally down on teams coming off a Super Bowl win and, as much as I like the acquisition of LB Bobby Wagner from the Seahawks, the retirement of a key offensive linemen, LT Andrew Whitworth, does hurt the Rams on the other side of the ball. Overall the defense lost some key veteran players too so Wagner can not make up for all of them. I say it will be a challenging year for the Rams and they will struggle to surpass 10 wins. San Francisco 49ers – Current odds are 10 under. The juice is toward the under on this one and I would have to agree. A bit of a revamped offensive line and the potential that it could be a rookie QB taking the snaps behind it makes me nervous about expecting too much from this Niners team. Good management and coaching plus a still solid defense certainly helps this team but the concern on offense, in my opinion, is absolutely warranted. The key for the 49ers will be how quickly the offense can really start clicking and, to me, that is a big question mark. But with the D they have this could be a team to watch for having plenty of unders in their games. Seattle Seahawks – Current odds are 5.5 over. Some books you may see 6 posted too because the juice on the over 5.5 is quite steep. I would say 6 wins sounds about right for this Seattle team. They have fallen a long way from the big seasons the fans in Seattle had become spoiled by with about a decade of consistency. Last season was rough but this season will be rougher. Seattle lost QB Russell Wilson to the Broncos. Also, Wagner went to Rams as noted above. Additionally a top offensive lineman, Duane Brown, no longer with Seattle either. The defense really struggled last season in terms of yardage allowed and now, on the other side of the ball, a QB battle between Drew Lock and Geno Smith does not exactly bring back any memories of Russell Wilson’s glory years. Maybe 6 wins are not so attainable after all. Could be a long season in Seattle with 4 or 5 wins being the right call depending on the QB play.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 07/31/2022

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jul 31, 2022

The Sunday sports card features MLB and CFL action.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The first pitch is thrown at 12:05 PM ET, with the Toronto Blue Jays hosting the Detroit Tigers at 12:05 PM ET. Jose Berrios takes the mound for the Blue Jays to pitch against the Tigers’ Garrett Hill. Toronto is a -285 money line favorite with the total set at 9 (all odds from DraftKings). Five MLB games start at 1:35 PM ET. St. Louis travels to Washington with the Cardinals tapping Andre Pallante against the Nationals’ Josiah Gray. The Cardinals are a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Philadelphia plays at Pittsburgh with Aaron Nola on the hill for the Phillies against J.T. Brubaker for the Pirates. The Phillies are a -180 money line road favorite with a total of 7. Atlanta hosts Arizona, with the Braves turning to Max Fried in their starting rotation against the Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly. The Braves are a -230 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. New York is at home against Kansas City with Jordan Montgomery on the mound for the Yankees to battle Zack Greinke for the Royals. The Yankees are a -265 money line favorite with a total of 9. Milwaukee visits Boston with the Brewers pitching Aaron Ashby against the Red Sox’s Josh Winckowski. The Brewers are a -140 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Three more MLB games begin at 1:40 PM ET. Tampa Bay hosts Cleveland with Shane McClanahan on the mound for the Rays against Bryan Shaw for the Guardians. The Rays are a -210 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. New York travels to Miami with the Mets tapping Taijuan Walker to duel against the Marlins’ Pablo Lopez. The Mets are a -155 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Cincinnati is at home against Baltimore, with Nick Lodolo taking the hill for the Reds against Austin Voth for the Orioles. The Reds are a -125 money line favorite with a total of 9. Two MLB games start at 2:10 PM ET. Houston plays at home against Seattle, with the Astros turning to Jake Odorizzi to pitch against the Mariners’ George Kirby. The Astros are a -135 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Chicago hosts Oakland with Dylan Cease to pitch for the White Sox against Adam Oller for the A’s. The White Sox are a -265 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers visit Colorado to play the Rockies at 3:10 PM ET. The Dodgers turn to Tony Gonsolin to pitch against the Rockies’ German Marquez. Los Angeles is a -180 money line road favorite with an over/under of 11.5. The Los Angeles Angels play at home against the Texas Rangers at 4:07 PM ET. Reid Detmers takes the ball for the Angels to face Dane Dunning for the Rangers. Los Angeles is a -125 money line favorite with a total of 8. The San Diego Padres are at home against the Minnesota Twins at 4:10 PM ET. The Padres send Sean Manaea to the mound to pitch against the Twins’ Dylan Bundy. San Diego is a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN has the San Francisco Giants host the Chicago Cubs at 7:08 PM ET. Carlos Rodon takes the ball for the Giants against Adrian Sampson for the Cubs. San Francisco is a -190 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Week 8 in the Canadian Football League concludes with the Toronto Argonauts playing at home against the Ottawa Redblacks at 5 PM ET. The Argonauts won their second straight game in a 31-21 upset victory at Saskatchewan as a 2.5-point underdog last Sunday. The Redblacks are winless in their first six games this season after their 40-33 loss to Montreal as a 2-point underdog on July 21st. Toronto is a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 47.5. 

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The Giants' Underrated Starting Pitchers: Alex Wood and Alex Cobb

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Jul 30, 2022

We backed the San Francisco Giants (our National League Game of the Month) in their opening game at home against the Chicago Cubs on Thursday. Manager Gabe Kapler was turning to Alex Wood who had been quite good all month after finding some extra zip on his sinker. In four July starts, the lefty has a 1.31 era and a 0.87 whip. He has struck out 25 batters yet walked only three in 20 2/3 innings. Wood rewarded these observations from our research by taking a no-hitter into the 7th inning before he got into some trouble and gave up two hits including a two-run homer from the Cubs’ Patrick Wisdom. Yet Wood only gave up two hits and two runs in 6 2/3 innings to get his seventh win of the season. For the season, he now has a 7-8 record to go along with a 4.11 era and a 1.16 whip. Yet those numbers probably fail to do Wood justice for what he can do for the Giants for the rest of the season. In his five July starts, the left-hander has a 2-1 record with a 1.65 era and a 0.80.Yet Wood is not the only San Francisco starting pitcher who is pitching better than his season numbers would suggest. Kapler gave the starting pitching assignment to Alex Cobb in Game 2 of their weekend series with the Cubs. The right-hander had a 3-4 record with a 4.26 era and a 1.33 whip in fifteen starts. Cobb had been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this season with a strand rate of 58.9%, far below the MLB average for runners left on base which usually hovers in the low 70% range. Yet he is seeing much better results lately. In his seven starts since the beginning of June, Cobb had a 2.82 era and a 1.17 whip. After striking out a career-high 24.9% of the batters he faced last season with the Los Angeles Angels last year, his velocity has been good this year and his strikeout rate of 22.8% is still the second-highest in his last eight seasons. Opposing hitters have a hard-hit rate of 23.3% against him which is the lowest mark in his career. In his nine starts at home at Oracle Park this year, Cobb had a 3.02 era. The 34-year-old right-hander may have pitched even better than Wood did the previous night. Cobb struck out 11 batters in his six innings of work while allowing only three hits and one run. Yet Cobb did not get any run support from his team against Chicago’s Marcus Stroman. Cobb left the game with San Francisco trailing, 1-0, before the Cubs scored three times in the top of the ninth inning. The Giants rallied for two runs in the bottom of the ninth yet it was not enough and Cobb took the tough luck loss. The Giants had everything go right for them last year in winning 107 games in the regular season. With a 49-51 record going into the final day in July, their management may be tempted to be sellers before the trade deadline. Yet with undervalued starting pitchers in Alex Wood and Alex Cobb joining Carlos Rodon and Logan Webb (and Jakob Junis with his 2.98 era), San Francisco might be better served by adding more bats and riding their pitching staff. With the third wildcard spot added for both leagues for the playoffs, the Giants are still only 4 1/2 games behind Philadelphia to qualify for the postseason. Good luck - TDG.

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The Surging Seattle Mariners Just Added Luis Castillo

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Jul 30, 2022

The Seattle Mariners had a 29-39 record on June 20th which was worrying bettors who purchased over 84.5 win total tickets at the Westgate in Las Vegas. Yet the Mariners started playing better baseball which culminated with a fourteen-game winning streak heading into the All-Star break with a 43-39 record. Suddenly, Seattle was a serious contender to make the postseason in the American League.The Mariners are led by their rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez who was introduced to the national MLB audience with his breakout performance in the Home Run Derby before running out of steam in the finals against Juan Soto. He is the first player in the history of Major League Baseball to smack 15+ home runs, drive in 50+ runs, and swipe 20+ stolen bases in his first ninety games. The frontrunner to win the American League Rookie of the Year Award has 18 home runs, 57 runs-batted-in, and 21 stolen bases. It turns out he injured his wrist in Seattle’s win against Texas the day before the Home Run Derby which led to him not playing in their three-game series against Houston the weekend after the All-Star Game. The Mariners lost all three games to the first place team in the American League West division. He returned to the lineup on Tuesday of this week and promptly homered in consecutive games against the Rangers. Seattle swept their three-game series with Texas to set up a weekend series rematch with the Astros. The Mariners lost the first two games against Houston, yet these upstarts demonstrated their moxie by rallying from a 4-3 deficit on Saturday by scoring two runs in the top of the ninth inning to steak a 5-4 victory against them. Seattle goes into the last day of July with a 55-47 record, and they have an impressive 26-8 record since June 20th. They may still be eleven games behind the Astros in the division, yet they currently hold the second wild card spot in the American League, with a three-game cushion against Cleveland for the final wildcard spot. The Mariners signaled their commitment to putting all their energies into making a playoff run when they traded significant future assets to the Cincinnati Reds for Luis Castillo. The right-handed starting pitcher has a 4-4 record this year with a 2.86 era and a 1.07 whip this season. Shoulder surgery delayed the start of this season for the 29-year-old, yet he is clicking on all cylinders now. In his four starts this month, Castillo had a 1.93 era and a 0.89 whip. He has struck out 90 batters this season while walking only 28 batters, and he has 30 punchouts to just seven walks in his 28 innings this month. In his six seasons with the Reds, he has finished with a sub-4.00 era five times. He joins Robbie Ray and Logan Gilbert to give Seattle as good a trio of starting pitchers as any team in MLB. This surging Seattle team has suddenly become a legitimate threat to win a World Series. Buy your future tickets while there is still value!Good Luck - TDG.

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2022 New Mexico Lobos Preview

by Matt Fargo

Saturday, Jul 30, 2022

New Mexico Lobos2021-22 Season Record 3-9 (1-7 MWC Mountain) - 1-11-0 ATS - 3-9-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 5Defense - 8OverviewSince entering the MWC in 1999, New Mexico has had its share of good seasons only to be followed up by a long string of bad seasons and it is entrenched in the latter right now. The Lobos had a run of five bowl games in six years between 2002 and 2007 then came seven straight losing seasons with a combined record of 18-67 then went to the New Mexico bowl two straight years and now is in the midst of five losing campaigns in a row and a 13-42 record. Third year head coach Danny Gonzales has been given one more try to form some sort of semblance of a football team after what was an utter disaster last season. New Mexico went 3-9 which is not the worst of records but being outscored by an average of 28-12 including 31-8 over the final eight games tells the story. There is not much help in returning players or incoming players so the writing is on the wall. OffenseThe worst offense in the country will be getting a full makeover this season with just five starters coming back. The Lobos were ranked No. 130 in both total offense and scoring offense, averaging 235.3 ypg and 12.2 ppg respectively and those were not even close to second to last. The quarterback situation was an absolute mess as eight different players threw a pass and it is likely none of them will be the starter this season as Kansas transfer Miles Kendrick has the job to lose. Who he throws to is the question as leading receiver Luke Wysong is back but he had just 224 yards on 9.3 yards per completion and no touchdowns. The running game was better but the two top rushers are gone and taking over will likely be Nathaniel Jones who missed all of last season. The offensive line is another work in progress with two starters back after their top guy transferred out. DefenseThe defense was not half bad as the Lobos were No. 47 overall but that should include an asterisk as opposing teams knew they did not have to do much on offense as two touchdowns were likely enough to win so they went vanilla. But still, it was something and New Mexico brings back eight starters and has a solid No. 48 ranking in returning production. The strength is in the secondary where the top three returning tacklers are back led by safety Jerrick Redd II who had 88 tackles that led the Lobos. They had only nine interceptions which was tied for No. 80 in the nation and that should improve based on their talent and an increased pass rush as they had 25 sacks but nearly a third of those are gone so the experience up front will need to step up. The linebacking crew is nothing special but all three projected starters have a ton of experience and will be better as well. 2022 Season Outlook13 wins over the last five years is not going to bring a lot of excitement from fans, alumni and anyone else vested into this program but it has to get better at some point. Maybe? The good news is that the offense cannot be any worse and more returning starters might have stalled them even more so some fresh faces could be exactly what they need. The defense has a lot of experience coming back and while last season could have been a façade because no one needed to challenge them, the guess is they will be better. They started 2-0 last season but no repeat of that this year as they host Maine to open and then have Boise St. at home six days later. After that, there are a couple of home and road win possibilities but it will not be easy. The O/U win total is 2.5 and there are likely only four other winnable games after Maine so all it takes is two but is far from a guarantee. 

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July National League Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Saturday, Jul 30, 2022

July National League Overachievers   Four months through the Major League Baseball season it is clear there are some overachievers on the mound. Some pitchers may be having career seasons, but others may be worth fading in August and September at favorable prices. Here is a look at a few National League starters to avoid playing on down the stretch.   Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins: Alcantara is about even-money in NL Cy Young futures, and he deserves the attention with nearly 150 innings under his belt in 21 starts to boost his WAR. He ultimately has a nearly identical xFIP to last season when he finished 9-14 and his K/9 and BB/9 rates are slightly worse this season compared to his 2021 line. The difference has been cutting his HR/9 nearly in half this season along with a career low .245 BABIP. The huge innings count in the first half of the season may be adding up as he has had a pair of marginal starts out of the break with six runs allowed and six walks allowed in just 11 innings. The Marlins also have a tough August schedule ahead including facing the Dodgers seven times while also facing Philadelphia, Atlanta, and San Diego. Alcantara is going to command pricing he doesn’t deserve the rest of the season while he is still pitching for a losing team.   Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers: An All-Star with an 11-1 record through 18 starts it has been a career year for Gonsolin, who wasn’t even expected to be in the rotation to start the season. He has been a huge overachiever with a .202 BABIP and an over 84 percent strand rate, currently the most favorable rates in both of those categories among all qualified NL starters this season. Gonsolin took the loss in the All-Star game and has turned in marginal starts on both sides of the break, his first two starts in which he allowed more than two earned runs all season. Pitching for the Dodgers with a glowing record and a 2.26 ERA, Gonsolin is commanding prices like the elite starters for the Dodgers the past few seasons like Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler. He isn’t in that category and currently owns an xFIP that is nearly twice as high as his ERA. Gonsolin has made two thirds of his starts this season vs. losing teams and he is already over his career high in MLB innings in a season as the late-season returns could suffer.  Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres: In his first 11 starts of the season Musgrove had a 1.50 ERA while going 7-0 for a simply incredible run. In six starts since he has a 4.82 ERA, even with little change in his strikeout and walk rates. The difference has been home runs, with six allowed in his last six starts. He did pitch in Colorado in a recent start and has faced road starts vs. the Mets and the Dodgers as ultimately his path the final two months will likely land in the middle of those two stretches. Musgrove has seen his strikeout rate shrink significantly in consecutive seasons and he is still getting away with a career low HR/9 at this point in the season. Musgrove is still listed as a top three Cy Young threat in the NL odds, but the Padres still have 12 games remaining with the Dodgers and a very difficult September schedule overall as a late season slide for Padres and Musgrove’s numbers seems very possible.  Merrill Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks: Arizona has been playing rather competitive ball of late and Kelly has been a big part of that, going 4-0 in his last five starts with a 1.57 ERA. His xFIP in that span is 4.05 and he has just a 6.6 K/9 in that span, catching some big breaks with a .204 BABIP. Kelly is 10-5 this season in 20 starts and he has been a pitcher that often beats his ERA estimators since joining Arizona after four years in the KBO. Kelly has a career low K/9 this season and a career low HR/9 by a wide margin at 0.53 compared to a career average of 1.14. Not surprisingly his recent run of success has come with three starts against the sinking Giants while he has been hit hard against quality teams this season including allowing 14 runs over three starts vs. the Dodgers. Kelly has been a streaky starter in his career and ultimately the current run is not likely sustainable. Arizona has two upcoming trips to Denver plus several more series vs. NL playoff threats as Kelly won’t be able to match his July pace the rest of the way.

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