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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL Preview and Odds - 10/04/2021

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Oct 04, 2021

The Monday sports card features action in the National Football League. Week 4 in the NFL concludes with the Los Angeles Chargers hosting the Las Vegas Raiders on ESPN at 8:15 PM ET for Monday Night Football.The Raiders improved to 3-0 with their 31-28 win in overtime against Miami as a 4-point favorite last Sunday. Las Vegas spotted the Dolphins a 14-0 lead before scoring the next 25 points to take an 11-point lead early in the fourth quarter. Miami responded with a field goal before Jacoby Brissett led a final touchdown scoring drive and rushed for the two-point conversion to force overtime. The teams traded field goals before Daniel Carlson converted a 22-yard field goal to win the game. Derek Carr completed 26 of 43 passes for 386 yards with two touchdown passes and an interception in leading Las Vegas to the win. Nine different targets caught passes in the game six players catching at least five balls. Carr leads the NFL with 1203 passing yards this season. He is averaging more than 400 passing yards per game, and he has passed for at least 325 yards in five straight games going back to last season. The Raiders have a 3-0 record to start the season for the first time since 2002. They have overcome two-touchdown deficits twice already. Their two victories were at home against Baltimore (the first Monday night game this season) and at Pittsburgh. They are averaging 30.0 points per game and giving up 24.0 points per game. After ranking 30th in the league last year with opponents converting 48.8% of their third downs, new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley’s defense is holding their opponents to a 33.3% success rate on third downs. Their defense has a 44% pressure rate on the quarterback despite blitzing at a league-low 9% of passing downs. Max Crosby leads the NFL with 25 pressures on opposing quarterbacks. Running back Josh Jacobs is questionable tonight with an ankle injury. Peyton Barber rushed the ball 23 times for 111 yards and a touchdown as the primary running back last week. Los Angeles comes off a 30-24 upset win at Kansas City as a 6.5-point favorite last Sunday. The Chargers raced out to a 14-3 lead at halftime, but the Chiefs responded with two touchdowns in the third quarter to take a 17-14 lead going into the final 15 minutes. Los Angeles outscored Kansas City, 16-7, in the fourth quarter for the victory. Justin Herbert completed 26 of 38 passes for 281 yards for four touchdowns and no interceptions in leading the Chargers to the victory. The second-year quarterback is fourth in the NFL with 956 passing yards. Since Week 2 of last season when Herbert took over as the team’s starting quarterback, he has passed for 5292 yards which is the third-most in the league during that span. His ten games passing for at least 300 yards is tied for the second-most in the NFL since Week 2 last year. Rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater has not allowed a sack in 150 snaps. Los Angeles is scoring 22.3 points per game and giving up 20.0 points per game. The Chargers opened the season with a win at Washington before losing at home to Dallas. They have won six of their last seven games going back to last season when they closed the year winning four straight games. Rookie head coach Brandon Staley has some injuries on defense. Kenneth Murray injured his ankle in practice on Saturday. He is questionable to play tonight. Cornerback Chris Harris is questionable with a shoulder injury. Defensive tackle Justin Jones is out with a calf injury. These two teams split their two meetings last season. Las Vegas beat the Chargers in Los Angeles, 31-26, in the first game on November 8th in a pick ‘em contest. Los Angeles defeated the Raiders in Las Vegas, 30-27, as a 3-point underdog on December 17th.DraftKings lists the Chargers as a 3-point favorite, with the total set at 51.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, MLB, WNBA and EPL Previews and Odds - 10/03/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Oct 03, 2021

The Sunday sports card features action in the NFL, MLB, WNBA, and the EPL.Week 4 in the National Football League continues with 16 games. Nine games kick off at 1 PM ET. Miami hosts Indianapolis as a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 41.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Buffalo plays at home against Houston as a 17.5-point favorite with an over/under of 47. Dallas is at home against Carolina in the primary national game on Fox as a 4-point favorite with a total of 51.5. Tennessee visits the New York Jets as a 6-point road favorite with an over/under of 44. Cleveland travels to Minnesota as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 51.5. Washington plays at Atlanta as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 47.5. Kansas City is at Philadelphia as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 54. Chicago hosts Detroit as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 41.5. New Orleans plays at home against the New York Giants as a 7-point favorite with a total of 42. Four games take place in the second-afternoon window. Two games start at 4:05 PM ET. The Los Angeles Rams are at home against Arizona as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 54. San Francisco hosts Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5. Two games begin at 4:25 PM ET. Baltimore visits Denver as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 44. Green Bay is at home against Pittsburgh in the CBS national game as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 45. Tampa Bay travels to New England for Sunday Night Football on NBC at 8:20 PM ET as a 7-point road favorite with an over/under of 50. The regular season of the MLB season concludes with 15 games. Five games start at 3:05 PM ET. Boston plays at Washington. Texas hosts Cleveland as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Tampa Bay plays in New York against the Yankees. San Francisco is at home against San Diego. Cincinnati is at Pittsburgh as a -160 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Baltimore plays at Toronto at 3:07 PM ET. Seven games start at 3:10 PM ET. Colorado plays at Arizona as a -125 money line road favorite with a total of 9. The Chicago White Sox are at home against Detroit as a -320 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Minnesota is at Kansas City as a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 10. The Los Angeles Dodgers host Milwaukee on TBS. Houston is at home against Oakland as a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Philadelphia plays at Miami as a -140 money line road favorite with a total of 7. St. Louis is at home against the Chicago Cubs at 3:15 PM ET as a -180 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Atlanta plays at home against the New York Mets as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 9.The semifinals of the WNBA continue with Game 3 in both best-of-five series. Connecticut plays at Chicago on ESPN at 1 PM ET. The Suns evened their series with Chicago at 1-1 with their 79-68 victory at home as an 8-point favorite on Thursday. Connecticut is a 4-point road favorite at Play MGM with an over/under of 153.5. Las Vegas is at Phoenix on ABC at 3 PM ET. The Mercury made this 1-1 series after their 117-91 victory as a 6-point underdog on Thursday. The Aces are a 2-point road favorite with a total of 172.5. Four matches conclude Matchweek 7 of the English Premier League. Three matches begin at 9 AM ET. Leicester City travels to Crystal Palace on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Tottenham plays at home against Aston Villa as a -0.25 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. West Ham United hosts Brentford as a -0.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester City visits Liverpool on the NBC Sports Network at 11:30 AM ET as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with a total of 2.75.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, CFL and EPL Previews and Odds - 10/02/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Oct 02, 2021

The Saturday sports card features action in NCAAF, MLB, CFL, and the EPL.Week 5 in college football concludes with 57 games between FBS opponents. Seventeen games kick off the card in the noon to 2:30 PM ET window. Six games are on national television at noon. Wisconsin hosts Michigan on Fox as a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 43.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Texas travels to TCU on ABC as a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 65. Georgia plays at home against Arkansas on ESPN as a 17-point favorite with a total of 48.5. North Carolina is at home against Duke on ESPN2 as a 20-point favorite with an over/under of 72.5. Western Michigan visits Buffalo on the CBS Sports Network as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 59. Memphis plays at Temple on ESPNU as a 10-point road favorite with an over/under of 60. Cincinnati travels to Notre Dame on NBC at 2:30 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 49.5. Twenty-three games have start times from 3:30 PM ET to 6:30 PM ET. Six games are on national television at 3:30 PM ET. Oregon visits Stanford on ABC as an 8-point road favorite with an over/under of 51.5. Oklahoma plays at Kansas State on Fox as an 11.5-point road favorite with a total of 53.5. Alabama hosts Mississippi on CBS as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 80. Boise State plays at home against Nevada on FS1 as a 5-point favorite with a total of 59.5. Central Florida is at Navy on the CBS Sports Network as a 16.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 52. West Virginia is at home against Texas Tech on ESPN2 as a 7-point favorite with a total of 55. SMU is at home against South Florida on ESPN at 4 PM ET as a 21-point favorite with an over/under of 68. Florida travels to Kentucky on ESPN at 6 PM ET as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 56. Air Force visits New Mexico on FS2 at 6:30 PM ET as an 11.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 46. Seventeen games conclude the college football card beginning at 7 PM ET. Three games are on national television with 7 PM ET kickoffs. Oklahoma State hosts Baylor on ESPN2 as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 47. UAB plays at home against UAB as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 49.5. Iowa State plays at home against Kansas on FS1 as a 34-point favorite with a total of 57.5. Two games are on national television at 7:30 PM ET. Penn State plays at home against Indiana on ABC as a 12.5-point favorite with an over/under of 53.5. Vanderbilt is at home against Connecticut on ESPNU as a 14.5-point favorite with a total of 51. LSU plays at home against Auburn on ESPN at 9 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 57. UCLA hosts Arizona State on FS1 at 10:30 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 56.5. Fresno State travels to Hawaii on the CBS Sports Network at 11 PM ET as an 11-point road favorite with an over/under of 65. Fifteen games are on the MLB docket. New York is at home against Tampa Bay at 1:05 PM ET as a -140 money line favorite with a total of 9. Toronto plays at home against Baltimore at 3:07 PM ET as a -240 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two games start at 4:05 PM ET. Boston plays at Washington as a -165 money line road favorite with a total of 9.5. San Francisco is at home against San Diego as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Philadelphia plays at Miami at 6:10 PM ET as a -115 money line road favorite with a total of 8. Cincinnati is at Pittsburgh at 6:35 PM ET as a -180 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Cleveland plays at Texas at 7:05 PM ET as a -155 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Three games start at 7:10 PM ET. Houston is at home against Oakland as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Chicago White Sox are at home against Detroit as a -275 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Minnesota is at Kansas City as a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Two games begin at 7:15 PM ET with the Fox national broadcast offering regional coverage. St. Louis is at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -180 money line favorite with a total of 9. Atlanta plays at home against the New York Mets as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Arizona hosts Colorado at 8:10 PM ET as a -140 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two games conclude the MLB card at 9:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against Milwaukee as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. Seattle is at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Canadian Football League concludes their ninth week in the regular season with two games on ESPN+. Hamilton hosts Montreal at 4 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5. Saskatchewan travels to Calgary at 7 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 48.Matchweek 7 in the English Premier League begins with six matches. Manchester United hosts Everton on the NBC Sports Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -1 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Four games start at 10 AM ET. Burnley is at home against Norwich City as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.5. Chelsea plays at home against Southampton on the USA Network as a -1.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.75. Leeds United is at home against Watford on the NBC Sports Network as a -0.75 goal line favorite with a total of 2.75. Wolverhampton plays at home against Newcastle United as a 0.75 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Arsenal visits Brighton and Hove Albion on NBC at 12:30 PM ET in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.25.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 10/01/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Oct 01, 2021

The Friday sports card features action in NCAAF, MLB, and the CFL.Three games continue the Week 5 college football card. Tulsa hosts Houston on ESPN at 7:30 PM ET. The Golden Hurricanes earned their first victory in four games this season with their 41-34 win against Arkansas State as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday. The Cougars won their third-straight game with their 28-20 win against Navy as a 20-point favorite last week. Tulsa is a 4-point favorite, with the total set at 54 (all odds from DraftKings). Iowa travels to Maryland on FS1 at 8 PM ET. The Hawkeyes won their fourth straight game to start with their 24-14 victory against Colorado as a 24-point favorite last Saturday. The Terrapins are 4-0 this season after their 37-16 win against Kent State as a 13-point favorite last week. Iowa is a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 47.5. BYU visits Utah State on the CBS Sports Network at 9 PM ET. The Cougars improved to 4-0 with their 35-27 victory against South Florida as a 22-point favorite last Saturday. The Aggies lost their first game of the season in a 27-3 loss to Boise State as a 9.5-point underdog last week. BYU is a 9.5-point road favorite with a total of 63.5. Fifteen games are on the MLB docket. Cincinnati plays at Pittsburgh as a -170 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two games begin at 7:05 PM ET. The Red Sox are at Washington as a -200 money line road favorite with a total of 9.5. The New York Yankees play at home against Tampa Bay as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Toronto hosts Baltimore at 7:07 PM ET as a -400 money line favorite with a total of 10. Philadelphia visits Miami at 7:10 PM ET as a -135 money line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Atlanta plays at home against the New York Mets at 7:20 PM ET as a -170 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Cleveland visits Texas at 8:05 PM ET as a -130 money line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Three games start at 8:10 PM ET. Minnesota travels to Kansas City as a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 9. Houston plays at home against Oakland as a -120 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Chicago White Sox are at home against Detroit as a -280 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. St. Louis plays at home against the Chicago Cubs at 8:15 PM ET as a -200 money line favorite and an over/under of 7.5.Colorado travels to Arizona at 9:40 PM ET as a -115 money line road favorite with a total of 8.5. San Francisco hosts San Diego at 9:45 PM ET as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two games begin at 10:10 PM ET. Seattle plays at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -180 money line favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against Milwaukee as a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.Week 9 in the Canadian Football League continues with Winnipeg playing at British Columbia on ESPN News at 10 PM ET. The Blue Bombers have won four in a row after their 37-22 victory at Edmonton as a 7-point road favorite on September 18th. The Lions had their three-game winning streak end in a 31-24 upset loss as a 1.5-point favorite last Friday. Winnipeg is a 1-point road favorite with a total of 52.

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The Cincinnati Bengals Laying More than a Touchdown? A Brave New World!

by Hollywood Sports

Friday, Oct 01, 2021

Successful long-term gambling in football requires the willingness to back bad teams — the ones that the betting public does not want to touch. That is what I told clients on the last day in September with the Thursday Night game to begin Week Four in our play on the Jacksonville. Admittedly, anyone betting this game was forced to invest in a bad team since the Jaguars were playing the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals’ faithful saw their team in a situation that they have not enjoyed in many years. With the Bengals laying 7.5-points in most spots, it was just the fourth time in head coach Zac Taylor’s three-year year tenure as the head coach of the Bengals that his team was the point spread favorite — and it was the first time that Cincinnati was every laying more than a field goal in Taylor’s tenure. The Bengals lost the two games they were favored in Taylor’s rookie season. Their lone win and point spread cover as a favorite under Taylor was their 33-25 win against the Jaguars last October as a 1-point favorite. With Urban Meyer now the head coach and Trevor Lawrence under center, this was a different Jacksonville team who went into halftime with a 14-0 lead before losing by a 24-21 score. Meyer’s decision to forego kicking a field goal at the end of the first half may have won him fans from the football analytics community live-tweeting during the game, but Jacksonville could have sure used three more points at the end of that game. Frankly, the Bengals were primed for a letdown after their triumph against their heated AFC North rival in the Steelers. Did Cincinnati win that game — or did Pittsburgh lose it? The Bengals gained only 268 yards. They ran only 42 plays while the Steelers took 77 snaps under center. Cincy converted only three of nine of their third-down opportunities — a disturbing continuation from last season when they were 30th in the NFL by converting 36.2% of their third-down opportunities. But the Bengals were able to pull off their second upset victory of the season after beating Minnesota in Week One as an underdog. I like quarterback Joe Burrow — and would like him even more if played behind an even average offensive line. The Bengals allowed 48 sacks last season — and they have surrendered 10 sacks so far this season despite the Steelers failing to sack Burrow even once. Cincinnati got the memo to run the ball more after Burrow’s season-ending injury last year just to keep Burrow out of harm’s way. The Bengals are running the ball 52% of the time. But that also means that they are scoring only 22.7 Points-Per-Game while averaging just 291.0 total YPG. I am not sold on Taylor as a head coach, yet another beneficiary for once being in the same room as Sean McVay. With offensive coordinator Brian Callahan and defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, he has assembled a support staff that will not threaten his authority. Who knows what the future will hold this season regarding how I feel about this Bengals team. Bettors and handicappers make a mistake to get stuck in preconceived notions. Some teams improve, while other teams falter. However, I do not see myself backing Zac Taylor’s team too often if they find themselves laying more than a touchdown again this season. I don’t think I have the courage quite yet for that Brave New World.Best of luck — Frank.

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NFL 2021: Early Season Reads

by Power Sports

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

It feels like the 2021 NFL season just started. But, believe it or not, we’re about to be four weeks in. It used to be that marked the quarter post. But now we’ve got 17 regular season games. Still, I thought this would be a good time to make some early assessments on who is likely to make the playoffs in the two conferences.Buffalo was a surprise loser in Week 1. Since then they’ve outscored two opponents 78-21. Even with the loss, the Bills are tied with the 3-0 Broncos for the best point differential through three weeks (+50). Expect them to run away with the AFC East. The Tua-less Dolphins are going to regress, the Patriots aren’t going to be better than middle of the road with rookie QB Mac Jones and the Jets are awful.Tennessee should also be a runaway division winner in the AFC. Not nearly as impressive as Buffalo so far, the Titans will instead benefit from a weak South Division. Houston and Jacksonville are two of the worst teams in the league. Indianapolis, off to an 0-3 start, looks like one of the big regression teams this year.The AFC North will likely produce two playoff teams and I’m talking about Baltimore and Cleveland. Barring some unforeseen circumstances, both the Ravens and Browns will be favored in all of their remaining games except one - when they visit one another. Pittsburgh’s streak of non-losing seasons, which goes back to 2003, could be in jeopardy. Big Ben is toast and the team has lost seven of nine games going back to the end of 2020. Cincinnati, off to its first 2-1 start in three years, is improved but not yet ready to contend for the playoffs.The West is definitely going to produce multiple playoff teams, likely three, but all four are thinking playoffs this year. Shockingly, the two-time defending AFC Champion Chiefs are the team in last place right now. They are a dreadful 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games. Regression was due after an extremely fortunate record in one-run games last year. The Raiders and Broncos are the two 3-0 teams in the division. But two of Las Vegas’ three wins came in OT. Denver’s first three opponents are a combined 0-9. Don’t look past the Chargers’ improvement either as they thankfully rid themselves of the odious Anthony Lynn. My guess is that the Raiders will be the “odd team out” come playoff time.Tampa Bay is probably the most certain division winner in the NFC. The Saints aren’t as good as they used to be. Carolina is off to a 3-0 start, but Christian McCaffery is hurt. It’s hard to envision a team with Sam Darnold at QB making the playoffs. Atlanta just isn’t very good.I think Dallas might be just as likely to win the East as Tampa Bay is to win the South. For the Cowboys, it’s very similar to what I talked about with Tennessee in the AFC South. The rest of the division stinks. Washington is a clear regression team while the Eagles and Giants are both bad.After a disastrous Week 1 showing, Green Bay has won two straight and Aaron Rodgers has the Cheeseheads R-E-L-A-X-I-N-G. I’d still make the Packers the favorite to win the NFC North, but they definitely aren’t winning as many games as they did last season. If the Vikings can get their act together, they will challenge the Pack. They might be 1-2, but Minnesota could easily be 3-0 right now. The Pack and Vikes need not worry about the Bears and Lions as the latter two seem destined for double digit losses.That brings us to the NFC West, which is pretty easily the best division in football. Three teams will definitely make the playoffs and it could be all four. The Rams already beat the Buccaneers and could end up as the #1 overall seed. Matt Stafford is a clear upgrade over Jared Goff. I like Arizona too as long as Kyler Murray stays healthy. San Francisco was on everyone’s shortlist for most improved teams in 2021. Even with some early attrition and question marks surrounding Jimmy G, I think the Niners win 10 games. So Seattle could be the odd team out come playoff time, which sounds shocking. They will battle with the Saints and the second place team in the North for that 7th playoff spot.See you next month!  

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The Detroit Lions: For Those Who Bet Numbers (Not Teams)

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

The betting public tends to want to bet for or against teams. Those looking to share the perspective of the oddsmakers look at the numbers before assessing a team’s ability to cover that point spread. These bettors may develop the habit of consistently backing the Detroit Lions this season.After 33 losses in Matt Patricia’s three seasons as the Detroit head coach, it is of little surprise that bettors are not fond of betting on the Lions. Detroit has been an underdog of more than a touchdown in each of their first three games. Dan Campbell is the new head coach after serving as the interim head coach for the Miami Dolphins in 2015 after Joe Philbin was let go after four games. Campbell led the team to win five of their remaining twelve games while drawing national attention for doing gimmicky things like bring the Oklahoma drill to practices. After serving on Sean Payton’s coaching staff as the tight ends coach, Campbell got hired by the Lions in the offseason. His eccentric nature was ridiculed by the sports media when he talked in introductory press conferences about his team biting knee caps to demonstrate the fight and resolve he expects from his players. Yet these comments may have hit the right cord for the fans (and players) in Detroit who found Patricia aloof and a beneficiary of being a former defensive coordinator for Bill Belichick. Campbell knows the city and the mentality of the fanbase as a former player for the Lions himself.Campbell has assembled an intriguing coaching team around him. Anthony Lynn is a good offensive mind at offensive coordinator who is now being rumored as a candidate for the heading coaching job at USC. Lynn’s biggest failing as the head coach of the Chargers was his game management late in games. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is one of the hot young coaches in the game. After being a leader for many of Bill Parcel’s defenses for the New York Jets and later the Dallas Cowboys, he shined as the defensive backs coach at New Orleans, where he first worked with Campbell. Veteran defensive coach Dom Capers is a special consultant. Campbell is a Bill Parcells-disciple, as well, who is taking on the role of CEO head coach. The national media may not have bought in right away, yet the players seem to have become believers in Campbell. It would be easy for the Lions to fold after falling behind to San Francisco, 38-10, midway through the third quarter in their opening game of the season. Yet Detroit kept fighting by outscoring the 49ers 23-3 the rest of the way including making both of their 2-point conversions to put the game within one scoring possession before losing 41-33. The Lions then held a 17-14 halftime lead in Green Bay on Monday Night Football. A failed fourth-down attempt deep in Packers’ territory early in the second half changed the momentum of that game. The final score, 35-17, does not accurately reflect how competitive that game was. Detroit won the yardage battle, 344-323. Detroit then rallied from a 10-0 halftime deficit to take a 17-16 lead against Baltimore last week before the Ravens’ kicker, Justin Tucker, kicked an NFL record 66-yard field goal to win the game. Perhaps it was only a former Lions’ player who could appreciate the bad turn of events for the club when replays revealed that the referees failed to call a delay of game penalty on Baltimore that should have nullified the successful kick. Campbell acknowledged the error, dismissed any eventual apology from the league as useless, and then got his team focused for their next game. It is going to take some time to rebuild the roster that Patricia left behind. Yet what this team may lack in talent, they will make up for by being prepared and not giving up. Detroit will probably be underdogs in most of their games this season. For those who bet numbers not teams, the Lions will present some interesting possibilities as the season moves forward.Good luck - TDG.

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Dan Quinn's Immediate Impact on the Dallas Cowboys' Defense

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

Mike McCarthy knew the Dallas defense needed all the help it could get after allowing 29.8 points per game last season. His new defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has energized the unit. Even after three games this season, his impact on the defensive unit is quite apparent.After getting fired as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons, Quinn conducted a self-assessment of his defensive principles from his time as the defensive coordinator for Pete Carroll in Seattle to update his ideas for the ever-evolving offenses in the NFL. Quinn became the head coach for the Falcons after serving as the Seahawks defensive coordinator for two seasons culminating with their Super Bowl victory in 2014. His reputation as a defensive mastermind only strengthened with the steady improvement of the Atlanta defense in their Super run in the 2016-17 season, which ended in their epic fourth-quarter collapse to New England. Disappointing play from his defenses since that year and three straight losing seasons eventually led to owner Arthur Blank letting Quinn go in the off-season. McCarthy quickly scooped him up to replace his defensive coordinator last year, Mike Nolan.Quinn has played less cover-3 defense with the Cowboys with more single-high safety or two-zone safety looks. He is adapting to the talent he inherited, and he is simplifying schemes, so his players play fast. One of the problems that Dallas had last year was the system change to a 3-4 under new coordinator Mike Nolan. The COVID pandemic made that transition more challenging, and Nolan did not adjust well to teaching his concepts from zoom meetings. The Cowboys signed six new defensive players in free agency and drafted eight rookies to contribute to the defense, including their top-six picks. Owner and general manager Jerry Jones hit a home run in the drafting of linebacker Micah Parsons out of Penn State. After the injury to DeMarcus Lawrence, Quinn moved Parsons to defensive end, a position he had not played since high school. Parsons has thrived in that role. Quinn’s defense is making big plays. They have forced eight turnovers in their first three games, with three of them in the red zone. Dallas may be allowing over 400 yards per game, but they have played against two strong offenses in the Buccaneers and Chargers. They held those two offenses to 24.5 points per game. They only allowed 14 offensive points to Philadelphia on Monday, with the Eagles’ third touchdown being from a Dak Prescott fumble that they recovered in the end zone. The Cowboys were second-to-last in the NFL last season by allowing 159 rushing yards per game. Four opponents gashed them for over 200 yards on the ground. This year, they have not given up 100 or more rushing yards in a game while holding their three opponents to 70 rushing yards per game. The Cowboys lead the NFL with ten different players all moving at a speed of at least 19 miles per hour. Quinn deserves the credit. His schemes are helping his players play faster, with less thinking and more instinctual reacting. Good luck - TDG.

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The NBA Is Back! 

by Ben Burns

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

After closing out the playoffs on a 14-2 run, I'm pretty excited to have the NBA back. The preseason starts this weekend. The Nets and the Lakers tip things off, Sunday afternoon. Regular season action begins on October 18th. Opening night includes a pair of intriguing matchups. Once again, both the Nets and the Lakers are featured. Brooklyn visits Milwaukee. Meanwhile, Lebron and co. will host Curry and the Warriors.  A few months later, the Nets and Lakers will meet in primetime, on Christmas Day.With the extra TV time being awarded to them, it's not surprising that Nets and Lakers are the two favorites to take home the title. As of this writing, Pinnacle has the Nets listed at +217 and the Lakers at +355. Not much value there. At +837, the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks are the only other team being given much of a chance. Given that the Bucks are playing in a far less competitive division than the Nets, they seem like a relative bargain. Check out the list below.There are also odds for which player wins the MVP award. There are a number of players in the running. At +487, Luca Doncic is the favorite. He's a great player and is an excellent position to put up huge stats. Perhaps, this will be his year. Still, in my estimation, there's much better value on the board. Young stars like Trae Young, Devin Booker and Jayson Tatum are all being offered at better than 20-1. You'll also find those odds below. October 18th will be here before you know it. Make sure to use the next couple of weeks getting caught up on what's been going on and learning the current state of the teams. Until then, enjoy the baseball and football! Odds To Win TitleAtlanta Hawks +4318Boston Celtics +3527Brooklyn Nets +217Charlotte Hornets +8029Chicago Bulls +8633Cleveland Cavaliers +26959Dallas Mavericks +3672Denver Nuggets +2165Detroit Pistons +26959Golden State Warriors +1267Houston Rockets +26959Indiana Pacers +10789Los Angeles Clippers +2165Los Angeles Lakers +355Memphis Grizzlies +10478Miami Heat +2810Milwaukee Bucks +837Minnesota Timberwolves +26188New Orleans Pelicans +11526New York Knicks +10789Oklahoma City Thunder +26959Orlando Magic +26959Philadelphia 76ers +2261Phoenix Suns +1516Portland Trail Blazers +8093Sacramento Kings +25882San Antonio Spurs +13484Toronto Raptors +8124Utah Jazz +1516Washington Wizards +18874Odds To Win Regular Season MVPLuka Doncic +487Giannis Antetokounmpo +710Joel Embiid +812Kevin Durant +754Stephen Curry +812Damian Lillard +1217LeBron James +1419Nikola Jokic +1622Trae Young +2129James Harden +2029Anthony Davis +2837Devin Booker +2837Jayson Tatum +2538Donovan Mitchell +3040Paul George +3648Russell Westbrook +3648Zion Williamson +4256Kyrie Irving +4256Bradley Beal +5573Ja Morant +5573Domantas Sabonis +7599Julius Randle +6587Karl-Anthony Towns +6587Jimmy Butler +6587Zach Lavine +7093Chris Paul +7093

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Joe Judge on Analytics (and the Self-Own of his Critics)

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

New York Giants head coach Joe Judge got in trouble with the self-professed smartest guys online when he failed to demonstrate proper deference to the Analytics God. Here were Judge’s comments in a press conference earlier this week. "Analytics is just a tool. It’s nice to look at the numbers and how they go through the flow of the game, but the analytics change based on the opponent, based on who you have available for the game, and how the flow of the game is going, too. You can look at a stat sheet all ya want. I promise ya if Excel was gonna win football games, Bill Gates would be killing it right now. But you've got to take those numbers as a tool and go ahead and factor in how your team's playing at the time and how the opponent is as well. You’ve got to measure your strengths and weaknesses against the opponent every time and then also in terms of the flow of the game.”Judge’s tone and suggestion that analytics can be expressed by a simple Excel one-sheet have been ridiculed by many who profess to be devotees to football analytics, whatever that means (more on that below). Football statistics and metrics are attractive for a variety of reasons. One of the appeals for those who like to invoke “The Numbers” is that it offers the allure of a superior intelligence without having to do the work of province a warrant to defend the claim. And when capital-A “Analytics” is used as the cover, then the individual gets hide find the protection of the mob. “Joe Judge doesn’t believe in analytics, what an idiot” is the perfect sentiment for those whose deepest thoughts come in 280 characters or less. As an aside, those familiar with my work know that I value analytics. It was the addition of basketball analytics into my handicapping toolbox that helped conclude the 2010 NCAA Tournament on a 20-4 ATS run after the first day of the Big Dance. Sabermetrics has been a foundational aspect of my handicapping of MLB regarding the respective starting pitchers since Day One in the field. Expected goals (xG) play a critical role in my handicapping of soccer and the NHL. Analytics plays a role in my football handicapping, but I consider much of that work so fundamentally flawed that I take many of their predictive numbers with a large grain of salt. I am not anti-analytics. I am anti-lazy thinking (and making claims without warrants). Interestingly, the criticism of Judge’s comments exposes some assumptions many (not all) in the football analytics community make that would probably not withstand scrutiny if put under a microscope. Many football analytics adherents seem to advocate that there is a One Truth exposed by analytics as The Way. “The numbers say go for it on fourth-and-one.” Well, where did those numbers come from? League-wide data? What years? Does it include the pandemic season without fans in the stands? How big is the sample size? How big should the sample size be? Does that league-wide data treat Derrick Henry’s fourth-and-one numbers as equally relevant to those numbers for, say, Theo Riddick? Is Judge wrong when he argues that “the analytics change based on the opponent, based on who you have available for the game and how the flow of the game is going, too”? Do the football analytics folks really want to suggest that there is no statistical difference between Saquon Barkley rushing the football on 4th-and-one versus Gary Brightwell, their sixth-round pick from Arizona? Is there no statistical difference between attempting a fourth-and-down rushing play against the Tampa Bay run defense as opposed to the Detroit run defense? Another assumption many in the analytics community makes is that every statistical moment is the same. Many in the analytics basketball community presume this when defending the use of shooting tons of 3-pointers. They are later surprised when the Houston Rockets missed 27 straight 3-pointers in Game Seven of the 2018 NBA Western Conference Finals. Too many in the quantitative field rigidly support the belief that those 27 misses could have just as easily happened on a Tuesday night in February of the regular season. To suggest otherwise is to expose a fundamental problem with their project: that the numbers may not apply as nicely to the situation at hand. For those interested in nuance and perspective, this revelation is not threatening. For those who have a vested interest — financial or otherwise — this proposition is an existential threat. It is not a radical idea to offer that basketball teams not good at shooting 3-pointers should shoot less of them (in place of higher percentage shots for their team’s skillsets). This is probably true even after confronting the fact that 3-point baskets offer 50% more value than 2-point baskets. Is it a radical idea by Judge that perhaps the percentages for his team on 4th-and-one may not be as prolific as that of the Kansas City Chiefs?And is it a radical idea that going for it on fourth-and-one (to continue using this one example since it most often gets deployed by the football analytics folks as if there is capital-t Truth answer to this question that can fit on an Excel sheet) that the answer may change based on field position, game score, and how much time is left in the game?The other major sports are getting better at appreciating that rather than establishing an Analytics Department to expose the Truth, instead the use of numbers and statistics is fluid that can be exploited for a strategic advantage. All numbers are not created equal because all formulas are not created equal. Some analytics are simply more illuminating. While yards per game offer some value, yards-per-play may offer a more insightful perspective. Just like the NFL has 32 unique scouting departments that make different evaluations, the league will eventually have 32 unique analytics departments that have differing views — and this is before head coaches then interpret that data based on his available personnel, the score of the game, and the moment in the game. Just using the analytics umbrella does not provide invincibility against potential critique. The audience is not privy to the NextGen formulas used to develop their stats ESPN hawks (in partnership) regarding what a coach should do in a certain situation. The broadcast is not a math class, but it is theater. It’s a smaller narrative within the bigger story. Many statistical models in football do not put any value on first downs and time of possession. Do they do this because they disagree with many football coaches who find both those aspects of the game critical? Or, do they do it because it is more convenient to ignore those facets of the game? Using Yards-Per-Play as the base unit of efficiency is easier than the messy work of determining how to value the reset of downs offered by generating 10 yards in four plays. There are many differences between Joe Judge and his critics, but one I would like to close with is this: it is only Judge that risks losing his job if gets a football decision wrong. His critics risk nothing. Many of his critics have a vested financial interest in presenting their criticism since that it is the foundation of their business model. When contemplating going for it on fourth-and-one (to torture this one example), I suspect there would be a quick about-face in opinion if the critic were to lose their job if they got the decision wrong. In fact, I suspect all it would take for many of his critics to demonstrate caution and nuance would be the mere threat of being blocked or unliked if their opinion from the cheap seats turned out to be correct. Best of luck — Frank.

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NHL Metropolitan Division Preview 2021-22

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

Metropolitan Division 2021-22 Point Total PredictionsWith last season being just 56 games, the first point total listed is the number of points the team earned in the standings last season but extrapolated over a normal 82 game season. Then the second total listed is my prediction range for this season. Carolina Hurricanes – 117 points last year. Predicting a range of mid to upper 90s this season. Now have veterans at the goaltending spot but a lot of things fell into place for Carolina in the regular season last year. Very strong club but drop off expected and now playing in tougher division after moving to the Central for last season only. Columbus Blue Jackets – 70 points last year. Predicting a range of mid to upper 70s this season. This team is better than it has shown on the ice and I feel strongly that the underachieving stops this season but also playing in a tougher division this season and points will be tough to come by. New Jersey Devils – 66 points last year. Predicting a range of low to mid 80s this season. This team should be much improved because I liked what I saw from this team as the season went on. The late season Devils were much better than the early season Devils and they’ll carry momentum here and be an improved team this season. New York Islanders – 104 points last year. Predicting a range of mid to upper 90s this season. Just need a little more offense as this team relies so heavily on Mathew Barzal in that regard. But great defense and solid goaltending make this one of toughest teams in division. New York Rangers – 88 points last year. Predicting a range of upper 80s to low 90s this season. Lafreniere is the key in his 2nd season as the Rangers improvement will go hand in hand with his improvement. Solid club but just not quite there yet and this division so tough. Philadelphia Flyers – 85 points last year. Predicting a range of upper 80s to low 90s this season. Carter Hart’s inconsistency in goal is a big concern with this club and they did have a 2nd season slump with their head coach after so  much success in his first season. Quality club but still missing something here unless Hart has a phenomenal season. Pittsburgh Penguins – 113 points last year. Predicting a range of low to mid 90s this season. Likely to be a drop-off here. Still questions in goal. Lost some solid contributors off the roster in off-season. Also, dealing with some early season injury issues already to guys like Malkin and Crosby which is always concerning. Washington Capitals – 113 points last year. Predicting a range of low to mid 90s this season. Getting Anthony Mantha was big for this club and they have the pieces in place to make another run at the cup one more time for Ovechkin. Trouble is there is so much competition in this division and Carolina back in it too after a season away in the Central Division. We’ll see some drop-off for Washington this season and note goalie Samsonov struggled as the season went on and this is also concerning. 

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NHL Atlantic Division Preview 2021-22

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Sep 30, 2021

Atlantic Division 2021-22 Point Total PredictionsWith last season being just 56 games, the first point total listed is the number of points the team earned in the standings last season but extrapolated over a normal 82 game season. Then the second total listed is my prediction range for this season. Boston Bruins – 107 points last year. Predicting a range of upper 90s to low 100s this season. Just such a consistent franchise for many seasons now. This team is built so well. Very strong top line many consider the best in the game but the 2nd line will be the key this season because David Krejci not coming back. That means Charlie Coyle will have to try to fill that spot. Buffalo Sabres – 54 points last year. Predicting a range of mid to uppers 60s this season. This will be Don Granato’s first full season as head coach of the Sabres. Should be improvement here as a result but how will they get over the Jack Eichel situation? Should see marked improvement this season but of course Buffalo still has a long way to go.  Detroit Red Wings – 70 points last year. Predicting a range of upper 60s to low 70s this season. The youth rebuild continues. The Red Wings are starting to make some positive steps after being patient with the youth rebuild. That continues this season and Detroit is still a year away from post-season contention but at least they are no longer a doormat for the rest of the league. Losing Jacob Vrana to shoulder surgery right before the season hurts this team. Florida Panthers – 116 points last year. Predicting a range of mid to upper 90s this season. The Panthers surprised with how strong of a season they had last year but their goalie situation is a concern as Sergei Bobrovsky can run hot and cold and that includes from season to season. This team has to drop down some this season in my opinion after overachieving a bit last season. Montreal Canadiens – 86 points last year. Predicting a range of mid to upper 80s this season. Keep in mind the Canadian teams all played together in the North Division last year due to the pandemic. I think that helped some of the teams like the Habs who are now back in a division battling with the likes of Florida and Tampa Bay and Boston plus Toronto comes back to Atlantic from the North as well. That is why, though Canadiens still look solid for this season, I can not predict anything more than staying about level on with last season’s point production.Ottawa Senators – 75 points last year. Predicting a range of low to mid 70s this season. Like Montreal, now playing in a tougher division. Like Florida, goalie concerns with Matt Murray being the guy. Ottawa will have to battle hard just to have a season that is level on with last season’s production. Like Buffalo and Detroit, this is another team that will not threaten the playoffs this season but is trying to rebuild slowly. Tampa Bay Lightning – 110 points last year. Predicting a range of low to mid 100s this season. Lost some good players so could drop a little but it is the systems in place here that make this team so strong each and every season in recent years. Strong coaching and a lot of talent coming up through the minors, this team is build way to be strong each and every season and will battle Boston for the top spot in division in my opinion. Toronto Maple Leafs – 113 points last year. Predicting a range of upper 90s to low 100s this season. Maple Leafs did benefit some from a North Division last season which they were a part of but now instead of beating up on Calgary and Vancouver they are back in Atlantic Division with the likes of Boston and Tampa Bay plus a Florida team off a big season. It is only natural to expect the Leafs to regress some as a result and plus their goaltending is a concern as they got more than was expected from that position last season. 

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