Generally speaking, I tend to stay away from home dogs in the NBA post-season. This might surprise many of my long-term clients, as I love playing on certain NBA home dogs in the regular season. And I love playing on certain home dogs in the post-seasons of other sports, like NCAAF, NFL, and NCAAB. But, the facts don't lie: home dogs have NOT done well over the long-term in the NBA post-season (but have been profitable in the post-seasons of the NFL, NCAAF and NCAAB).
Let's take a look at the NBA numbers.
Since 1990, NBA home dogs have gone 217-237-11 ATS (47.7%) in the NBA post-season. In contrast, NBA home favorites have gone 1023-956-36 ATS (51.6%).
And the home dogs have been poor across the board, in most technical situations:
Off a win: 77-85-4 ATS
Off a loss: 140-152-7 ATS
Off back-to-back wins: 16-17-2 ATS
Off back-to-back losses: 98-97-6 ATS
Off an ATS win: 99-115-5 ATS
Off an ATS loss: 97-111-4 ATS
Off back-to-back ATS wins: 45-49-1 ATS
Off back-to-back ATS losses: 56-55-3 ATS
Off back-to-back SU/ATS wins: 15-15-1 ATS
Off back-to-back SU/ATS losses: 53-51-3 ATS
Off a double-digit win: 27-28-1 ATS
Off a double-digit loss: 93-102-6 ATS
Covered by 10+ last game: 42-54-2 ATS
Failed by 10+ last game: 46-55-3 ATS
Lead in series: 24-28-2 ATS
Trail in series: 158-161-7 ATS
Tied in series: 35-48-2 ATS
In elimination games: 74-84-5
Good luck, as always...