Home Dogs Don't Bark Loudly In NBA Post-Season!

by Al McMordie

Thursday, Apr 20, 2023
Generally speaking, I tend to stay away from home dogs in the NBA post-season.  This might surprise many of my long-term clients, as I love playing on certain NBA home dogs in the regular season.  And I love playing on certain home dogs in the post-seasons of other sports, like NCAAF, NFL, and NCAAB.  But, the facts don't lie:  home dogs have NOT done well over the long-term in the NBA post-season (but have been profitable in the post-seasons of the NFL, NCAAF and NCAAB).

Let's take a look at the NBA numbers.

Since 1990, NBA home dogs have gone 217-237-11 ATS (47.7%) in the NBA post-season.  In contrast, NBA home favorites have gone 1023-956-36 ATS (51.6%).

And the home dogs have been poor across the board, in most technical situations:

Off a win:  77-85-4 ATS

Off a loss:  140-152-7 ATS

Off back-to-back wins:  16-17-2 ATS

Off back-to-back losses:  98-97-6 ATS

Off an ATS win:  99-115-5 ATS

Off an ATS loss:  97-111-4 ATS

Off back-to-back ATS wins:  45-49-1 ATS

Off back-to-back ATS losses:  56-55-3 ATS

Off back-to-back SU/ATS wins:  15-15-1 ATS

Off back-to-back SU/ATS losses:  53-51-3 ATS

Off a double-digit win:  27-28-1 ATS

Off a double-digit loss:  93-102-6 ATS

Covered by 10+ last game:  42-54-2 ATS

Failed by 10+ last game:  46-55-3 ATS

Lead in series:  24-28-2 ATS

Trail in series:  158-161-7 ATS

Tied in series:  35-48-2 ATS

In elimination games:  74-84-5

Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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