There are a lot of new rules in Major League Baseball this year. There were a lot of unknowns about how those would change betting on baseball this year. The biggest unknown was about what totals would look like due to the rule changes.
Let’s take a look at some numbers for the season so far-
Season To Date Totals Numbers: 186 Overs 181 Unders (50.7% Overs)
Last 7 Days Totals: 40 Overs 52 Unders (56.5% Unders)
For several weeks the over was on fire, and many were saying the over was “free money” with the new rules. In fact, about three weeks into the season the over was hitting at about 56%. Now, we have seen things flip around to where the under has been cashing in very nicely for about the last ten days.
I’ll be the first to admit that I was hesitant to bet many totals early on this season. I wanted to sit back and see how the rule changes would alter scoring in baseball. After the rash of overs in the first few weeks, the betting marketplace started betting up nearly every total on the board on a daily basis. Between that and the oddsmakers adjusting the numbers higher, under bettors have had more success recently.
On the whole, scoring is a up a bit from a year ago. However, it is my opinion that the biggest lesson to be learned here is that the betting market is efficient and oddsmakers are always going to make adjustments. Blindly betting games to go over the total because recent games have been going over isn’t a good strategy.
What should you be doing instead of just trying to follow a league wide trend? I recommend looking at umpire statistics, pitcher vs. batter stats, and pitcher splits based on home/road and early season or late season.
We will have to keep an eye on totals again when the weather heats up in the summer, but for now the oddsmakers have caught up with the new rules.