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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/18/2024

The Thursday sports card features NHL and MLB action.The National Hockey League concludes the regular season with six games on its slate. The Minnesota Wild host the Seattle Kraken on ESPN at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Wild are on a two-game winning streak after a 3-1 victory in Los Angeles against the Kings on Monday. The Kraken are on a four-game losing streak after their 4-3 loss at Winnipeg on Tuesday. Minnesota is a -148 money-line favorite, with the total set at 6 (all odds from DraftKings).The Winnipeg Jets play at home against the Vancouver Canucks at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Calgary Flames are at home against the San Jose Sharks at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -265 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Colorado Avalanche host the Edmonton Oilers on ESPN at 9:37 p.m. ET. The Avalanche lost for the fourth time in their last five games after a 4-3 loss in Vegas against the Golden Knights on Sunday. The Oilers won for the fourth time in their last six games in their 9-2 victory against San Jose on Monday. Colorado is a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Vegas Golden Knights play at home against the Anaheim Ducks at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -355 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Los Angeles Kings are at home against the Chicago Blackhawks at 10:37 p.m. ET as a -366 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Thursday card in Major League Baseball has five games on its schedule. Two games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. Tampa Bay hosts Los Angeles, with Ryan Pepiot taking the mound for the Rays to pitch against the Angels’ Griffin Canning. The Rays are a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Texas travels to Detroit, with the Rangers turning to Jack Leiter to pitch against the Tigers’ Kenta Maeda. The Rangers are a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Cleveland Guardians at 1:35 p.m. ET. Brennan Bernardino gets the ball for the Red Sox to battle against Carlos Carrasco for the Guardians. Boston is a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Chicago Cubs are at home against the Miami Marlins at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Cubs turn to Jameson Taillon to face the Marlins’ A.J. Puk. Chicago is a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The San Francisco Giants host the Arizona Diamondbacks on FS1 at 9:45 p.m. ET. The Giants won for the second time in their last three games with a 3-1 victory at Miami against the Marlins on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks lost for the second time in their last three games in their 5-3 loss at home against the Chicago Cubs yesterday. Logan Webb takes the hill for San Francisco to duel against Ryne Nelson for Arizona. The Giants are a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 8.

The 2024 NBA Playoffs Are Here

THE BETTING IS JUST BEGINNING   The NBA Playoffs are here and the betting is just beginning with all the games being televised.  TRENDS I WORK WITH Here’s one trend I like to work with. Remember that trends are not automatic bets but rather unique guidelines for that night’s game. You don’t have time to feel sorry for yourself in the NBA playoffs. It’s fast action and moves from day to day. One has to be prepared.  BOUNCE BACK GAMES Do teams historically tend to bounce back in their next game after getting embarrassed against the spread (ATS)? The short answer is yes! That fits perfectly with my contrarian approach to sports betting. I like to go against the grain because that’s where we find good value wagers. In this case, if a team does badly in a given game I would expect most of the public to bet AGAINST them in the following match of the series. The public almost always remembers what they just watched. That creates an imprint in their brain and is difficult to go against it.  That forces sportsbooks to adjust their odds and it creates good opportunities for contrarians like us!Obviously, as a professional gambler, I need data to back up my intuitions. Like I stated above, I start with this as a guideline.  Here are a few more Trends that I think are Worthy of Consideration.  More specifically, teams that have lost the past game by 12.5+ points ATS hold a 271-213 record ATS: that’s a 56% success rate and a 9.2% ROI (Return on Investment)! If it got destroyed by 22.5+ points ATS, you get a 67-45 record (59.8% success rate, 16.7% ROI). That’s an incredible betting angle, isn’t it? ROI and Returns on Investment  Overall, teams losing against the spread on two straight occasions in a series have gone 278-251 (52.6%) in the following game since the 1990/91 playoffs. We observe a funny coincidence: the win percentage, 52.6%, is exactly the same as the one we obtained earlier when focusing on the previous game only (instead of the last two)!Now, if you impose the restriction of only betting teams that have lost by at least 4.5 points ATS in both of their previous meetings, you get a 141-106 record (57.1%). The corresponding ROI turns out to be 11.3% when betting at -105 lines. Here’s another lesson for the uninformed. Capping goes in streaks. Hitting 75% for a two week period is fantastic. But it also has a betting regression to the norm.   Injuries to Double and Triple check.  Injuries took a crazy toll on seeding this year, in one spot in particular: The 76ers. Philadelphia has the third-best odds to come out of the East — not just among these lower seeds, but among all teams — trailing only Milwaukee and Boston. The reason: Joel Embiid is back and looks … OK. Philadelphia in the No. 7 looks by far like the most likely lower-seeded team to make a deep run in a very shallow Eastern playoff pool. The West is a little more up in the air in that there is more than one team at the top and at the bottom that could represent the conference. Denver is the favorite, but Phoenix has the same odds to make the Finals as the 76ers and doesn’t have to go through the Play-In. The Lakers are always in the mix, but the No. 8 seed is a tougher road — hence their longer odds (the Heat at +1400 are in the same situation). Let’s have a great playoff(s) betting season. Good Luck;WAR

NBA System of the Week: Play-In Tournament Edition

The Play-In Tournament is ongoing.  Last night, the Los Angeles Lakers punched their ticket to the Playoffs with a 110-106 triumph over the New Orleans Pelicans, while the Sacramento Kings ousted the Golden State Warriors.  Tonight, the Eastern conference takes center stage, with the Philadelphia 76ers hosting the Miami Heat, and the Chicago Bulls welcoming the Atlanta Hawks to the Windy City.The Atlanta Hawks were annihilated, 157-115, by the Indiana Pacers in their final regular season game.  And that 42-point defeat was Atlanta's 6th straight loss, overall.  The good news for Quin Snyder's Hawks is that their blowout loss has triggered a nice NBA System, which has cashed 60.2% over the last 34 years.  What we want to do is play on any team away from home in the Playoffs or Play-In Tournament, if it was installed as an underdog (or PK) vs. a sub-.700 opponent, and lost its previous game by more than 20 points.  Since 1991, this system has gone 59-39 ATS.Of course, there's nothing wrong with 60.2%, but we can improve our win percentage to 83.3% (10-2 ATS) if our 'play-on' team (here, Atlanta) lost its previous game by more than 30 points, and was also off back-to-back defeats.Atlanta has been installed as a 3-point underdog vs. Chicago.  Look for the Hawks to upset the Bulls tonight.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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