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Five MLB Teams Set To Regress

After a month of the Major League Baseball season, I wanted to take a look at five teams that I think could be good to fade soon because I expect regression.  Kansas City Royals (16-10 Record) The Royals are much better than last year, there is no denying that fact. However, they are 12-5 at home this year and just 4-5 on the road. They are going to have to play on the road quite a bit in the coming weeks. This is a young team and they are going to have some struggles at times. The Royals pitching staff is fourth in the majors in ERA so far this year. That will come down to earth in time. They are 4th in the majors in ERA and 27th in SIERA.  Chicago Cubs (16-9 Record) The Cubs are off to a red hot start. They had a season win total of 83.5, so they were expected to be right around .500. I expect the Cubs to top that season win total, but I think they have too many holes to continue at this pace. The bullpen is still a question mark. The offense is good, but are they as good as they have played thus far? The Cubs are also a public team, so the prices here could get out of control in a hurry. Cleveland Guardians (18-7 Record) I think the Cleveland Guardians are a solid team. They have a lot of upside potential with their bullpen being elite. Still, I think they will regress toward the mean. The Guardians have played the easiest schedule in baseball so far this season. Cleveland has been weak against left handed pitching in the last few years. So far this year, Cleveland is third in weighted on base average against lefties. This has been helped by a really high .341 batting average on balls in play. Cleveland is a good team, but not 18-7 good.  Oakland Athletics (10-16 Record) How can can a team that is 10-16 be due for regression? Oakland had a season win total of 57.5 or so at most books before the season. They have won 38.5% of their games so far this season. Oakland is playing in front of no one at home. At this point, I think them playing at home is a disadvantage if anything. The A’s will have a hard time staying motivated through this crazy season. I think they get worse. New York Yankees (17-9) The Yankees bullpen has a 2.86 ERA, but a 4.06 SIERA. They have won quite a few close games that could have gone either way. The Yankees have played a slightly easier schedule than the MLB average so far. That won’t continue since they play in the extremely competitive AL East. The Yankees are as public of a team as you’ll find and with this early success, their prices will be quite expensive. 

MLB’s Six Best Bullpens So Far - Are They Actually Good?

We are a month into the MLB season. It is getting far enough into the season now to look at season to date data and compare it to the advanced stats to see what units are actually as good as they appear. Let’s take a look at the top six bullpens in the majors by ERA this year. I’ll also list their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and SIERA (Skilled Interactive Earned Run Average). These are two solid predictive advanced statistics. We’ll take a look at the top six team by team.  Detroit Tigers (2.06 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 3.62 SIERA) The Tigers have easily the best bullpen ERA in the majors so far this year, but they are almost exactly middle of the pack in FIP and SIERA. I think Detroit’s bullpen has enough depth that they are better than league average, but they aren’t going to be able to keep up their amazing start either. The Tigers have allowed a batting average on balls in play of only .214, which is not sustainable. Cleveland Guardians (2.24 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.85 SIERA) Cleveland is first in both FIP and SIERA, so the advanced statistics are loving this Cleveland bullpen. There are no major signs of regression for Cleveland. Their batting average on balls in play allowed is .274. This Guardians bullpen is legitimately excellent! Clase is dominant and Gaddis has stepped up and been really good this year too.  Seattle Mariners (2.58 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 3.33 SIERA) A low .241 batting average on balls in play suggests some regression is coming for this group. They have also stranded 80% of runners on base. The Mariners bullpen walks too many guys to remain this elite. Speier is very good, but opponents won’t continue hitting only .143 against him.  Minnesota Twins (2.72 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 2.76 SIERA) Minnesota is a top five bullpen according to all the advanced statistics. It has helped them that they have played a relatively easy schedule, but I do think the Twins bullpen is very good. They have a bunch of guys with excellent swing and miss stuff. A consistently good unit! Milwaukee Brewers (2.85 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 3.4 SIERA) Opponents have only a .239 batting average on balls in play which suggests regression to the mean could be coming. However, the Brewers Devin Williams is expected back around the All Star Break, and he is clearly their best relief pitcher. In the interim, the Brewers bullpen likely comes back down to earth. Later in the season, I think they’ll be elite again. New York Yankees (2.86 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 4.06 SIERA) The Yankees bullpen is a decent one. Clay Holmes is an elite reliever. The problem I have with the Yankees bullpen is their depth isn’t great. I don’t trust Luke Weaver to be good on a consistent basis. Victor Gonzalez has a 2.89 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. This bullpen is overrated right now.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 04/26/2024

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with three games on ESPN. The Indiana Pacers host the Milwaukee Bucks at 5:40 p.m. ET as a 6-point favorite, with the total set at 221 (all odds from DraftKings). The Dallas Mavericks play at home against the Los Angeles Clippers at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 210. The Phoenix Suns are at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves as a 4-point favorite with a total of 206.5. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with four games. The New York Rangers travel to Washington to play the Capitals on TNT and truTV at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Nashville Predators host the Vancouver Canucks on TBS at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche play at home against the Winnipeg Jets on TNT and truTV at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers play in Los Angeles against the Kings on TBS at 10:40 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line road favor with a total of 6.5.The Friday card in Major League Baseball has 14 games on its schedule. The Detroit Tigers are at home against the Kansas City Royals at 1:10 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Baltimore Orioles host the Oakland A’s at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -285 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are in Toronto to play the Blue Jays at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. The New York Mets play at home against the St. Louis Cardinals on Apple TV+ as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Miami Marlins are at home against the Washington Nationals as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox host the Chicago Cubs as a -110 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Atlanta Braves play at home against the Cleveland Guardians at 7:20 p.m. ET as a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays visit Chicago to play the White Sox on Apple TV+ at 7:40 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. Two MLB games start at 8:05 p.m. ET. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Cincinnati Reds as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The New York Yankees play in Milwaukee to play the Brewers as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Minnesota Twins are in Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Two MLB games begin at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to San Diego to play the Padres as a -110 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks play in Seattle against the Mariners as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The San Francisco Giants host the Pittsburgh Pirates at 10:15 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5.

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