Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL and NCAAF Previews and Odds - 10/05/2023

Thursday, Oct 05, 2023

The Thursday sports card features NFL and NCAAF action.Week 5 of the NFL regular season kicks off with the Washington Commanders hosting the Chicago Bears on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET. The Commanders have lost two games in a row after their 34-31 loss in overtime at Philadelphia as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. After recovering an Eagles’ fumble in the end zone in the second quarter, Washington went into halftime with a 17-10 lead. Trailing by a touchdown after A.J. Brown’s touchdown reception with just 1:43 left in the fourth quarter, Commanders’ quarterback Sam Howell orchestrated a game-tying drive culminating with a 10-yard touchdown catch by Jahan Dotson. Head coach Ron Rivera chose to kick the extra point to force overtime rather than attempt a game-winning two-point conversion. The Eagles’ Jake Elliott kicked the game-winning 54-year field goal with 3:54 left in the overtime session. Howell completed 29 of 41 passes for 290 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions in the losing effort. The Bears remained winless this season in a 31-28 loss to Denver as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Chicago took a 28-7 lead at the 4:11 mark of the third quarter with quarterback Justin Fields' 2-yard touchdown pass to Khalil Herbert. Russell Wilson responded with two touchdown drives to pull the Broncos within seven points before forcing a Fields’ fumble on a naked bootleg that Jonathan Cooper scooped up for a game-tying 35-yard score. Fields led the Bears back down the field before head coach Matt Eberflus bypassed a short field goal attempt for a fourth-and-one opportunity, which they failed to convert. Denver went on to kick the game-winning 51-yard field goal with 1:41 left. After posting a perfect passer rating in the first half while completing 16 of 17 passes, Fields ended the game with 28 completions on 35 attempts for 335 yards with four touchdown passes and one interception. Washington is a 6-point favorite, with the total set at 44.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The sixth week in NCAAF college football continues with two games on national television between FBS opponents. Liberty plays at home against Sam Houston State on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Flames are unbeaten after four games this season after their 38-6 victory at Florida International as a 10-point favorite back on September 23rd. Quarterback Kaidon Salter completed 11 of 21 passes for 156 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while adding another 77 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Head coach Jamey Chadwell’s team opened with victories at home against Bowling Green and New Mexico State before winning at Buffalo and FIU. The Bearkats are winless in their first four games after a 35-28 upset loss to Jacksonville State as a 7-point favorite last Thursday. After scoring only ten combined points in their first three games, senior quarterback Keegan Shoemaker completed 22 of 38 passes for 285 yards with two touchdown passes and one interception to lead Sam Houston State to 28 points in the losing effort. This contest is the Bearkats' fourth game away from home after losses at BYU, Air Force on a neutral field, and on the road at Houston. Liberty is a 20-point favorite with an over/under of 45.5. Western Kentucky travels to Louisiana Tech on ESPNU at 8 PM ET. The Hilltoppers ended a two-game losing streak with a 31-10 victory against Middle Tennessee as a 6.5-point favorite last Thursday. Senior quarterback Austin Reed completed 30 of 52 passes for 297 yards with two touchdown passes and an interception in the win. Western Kentucky opened their season with wins at home against South Florida and Houston Baptist. They went on a two-game road trip where they lost at Ohio State, 63-10, before a 27-24 loss at Middle Troy. They raised their record to 3-2 with their win last week against the Blue Raiders. The Bulldogs ended a two-game losing streak with a 24-10 win at UTEP as a 1.5-point favorite last Friday. With Boise State transfer Hank Bachmeier out for a second-straight game with a shoulder injury, the junior quarterback completed 9 of 20 passes for 152 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions in the victory. Louisiana Tech began its season with a win at home against Florida International before losing on the road to SMU. They beat Northwestern State at home before losing at home to North Texans and then at Nebraska. The Bulldogs win against the Miners evened their record at 3-3.Western Kentucky is a 6-point road favorite with a total of 60.5.

Calgary Flames 2023 Season Preview

by Will Rogers

Wednesday, Oct 04, 2023

Last season didn't go as planned for the Calgary Flames. They often outplayed their opposition but still found a way to lose. Close games rarely went their way. They finished with 93 points, narrowly missing the playoffs. That's not good enough for Flames' fans, especially not with their northern neighbors thriving. Will things be any different this year? In terms of talent, the Flames are loaded. They were actually the only non-playoff team to score more goals than they allowed. Their biggest change comes behind the bench. Longtime coach Darryl Sutter is gone. Replacement Ryan Huska will help to change the culture and breathe new energy into the locker room. On paper, the Flames are solid in all areas. The defense is particularly strong. Goaltender Markstrom wasn't as good last season. For the team to really take the next step, he needs to return to the form he displayed in 2021-22. Markstrom started coming around at the end of last season and I'm expecting a bounce-back season.The Pacific Division is tough. The Flames are +828 to win it. Possible but unlikely. They're +1591 to win the West and +4339 to win the Cup. Stranger things have happened! If you're looking to make a regular season o/u points prop play, the Flames are being projected to finish with 94.5 points. That's only slightly better than last season. It seems entirely reasonable that they can turn a few of the close losses into wins this year. I like their chances of finishing with 95 or more. That means a return to the postseason and that Calgary fans will get to enjoy playoff hockey. Let's go Flames ... Will Rogers

Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 10/04/23

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Oct 04, 2023

The Wednesday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and UEFA Champions League action.The sixth week in NCAAF college football begins with two games on national television between FBS opponents. Middle Tennessee hosts Jacksonville State on ESPNU at 8 PM ET. The Blue Raiders have lost two games in a row after their 31-10 loss at Western Kentucky as a 6.5-point underdog last Thursday. The Gamecocks have won two games in a row after a 35-28 victory in overtime at Sam Houston State on Thursday. Middle Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at 52 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). New Mexico State plays at home against Florida International on the CBS Sports Network at 9 PM ET. The Aggies lost for the second time in their last three games in a 20-17 loss at Hawai’i as a 3-point underdog on September 23rd. The Golden Panthers were on a three-game winning streak before a 38-6 loss to Liberty as a 10-point underdog on September 23rd. New Mexico State is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5.Major League Baseball continues its postseason with four games in the wildcard round of the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Rays are at home against the Texas Rangers on ABC at 3:08 PM ET. The Rangers took the opening game of this best-of-three series with their 4-0 victory on Tuesday. Zach Eflin takes the mound for the Rays to face Nathan Eovaldi for Texas. Tampa Bay is a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Minnesota Twins host the Toronto Blue Jays on ESPN at 4:38 PM ET. The Twins seized a 1-0 lead in this series with a 3-1 victory yesterday. They turn to Sonny Gray to battle against the Blue Jays’ Jose Berrios. Minnesota is a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks on ESPN2 at 7:08 PM ET. The Diamondbacks have a 1-0 lead in this series with their 6-3 upset victory in Game 1 on Tuesday. Freddy Peralta takes the hill for the Brewers to pitch against Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks. Milwaukee is a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the Miami Marlins on ESPN at 8:08 PM ET. The Phillies have a 1-0 lead in this series after their 4-1 win yesterday. They tap Aaron Nola to duel against the Marlins’ Braxton Garrett. Philadelphia is a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.Matchday 2 in the UEFA Champions League concludes with eight group-stage matches. Two matches start at 12:45 PM ET. Atletico Madrid hosts Feyenoord as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Antwerp plays at home against Shakhtar Donetsk as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Six matches conclude the UCL card at 3 PM ET. Lazio travels to Celtic on the CBS Sports Network in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5. AC Milan plays at Borussia Dortmund in a pick ‘em contest with an over/under of 2.5. Paris Saint-Germain is at Newcastle United in a pick ‘em match with a total of 3. Manchester City visits RB Leipzig as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Crvena Zvezda is at home against the Young Boys as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Barcelona plays at FC Porto as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. All eight Champions League matches are available on Paramount+.

Week 6 College Football Top 10 Poll

by Wayne Root

Tuesday, Oct 03, 2023

EVERY TEAM IN OUR TOP 10 POLL IS UNDEFEATED. 1. Texas Texas is good at the line of scrimmage. Normally, a game against Kansas, the week before Red River, this would be a classic look-ahead game, and Texas didn't look ahead because this team is great on the line of scrimmage. They play really good defense, and they can run the rock. It wasn’t always pretty on Saturday, but it doesn’t have to be when facing a top-25 team. Quinn Ewers made one mistake that cost the Texas Longhorns some points, but Jonathan Brooks came through with 200 yards and a score while Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy combined for over 190 receiving yards. Texas is what Georgia has been over the last couple of years: great on defense, consistent effort, great on the line of scrimmage. Now, we get what we wanted, a classic rivalry of Oklahoma vs Texas. 2. Michigan Complete domination. Michigan is better than Georgia. They would beat Georgia next week, maybe even in Athens. They have proven it at the line of scrimmage. The Wolverines can play defense, and they can cover. The Michigan Wolverines offense did its thing on Saturday, but the real standout performance in Week 5 came from Michigan’s defense. The Wolverines held Nebraska to 210 total yards on their first eight drives, pitching a shutout against the Cornhuskers’ starting offense. With more performances like this one or a signature win, Michigan can grab a top-4 spot in our CPO rankings. BTW, who is stopping the Wolverines' run game? 3. Georgia After playing Auburn, we have data and evidence that show that this Georgia team is a shell of what it was in the past. The Georgia Bulldogs have won 22 consecutive games and the victory in Week 5 is thanks to Brock Bowers. With 160 scrimmage yards on just nine touches, Bowers once again demonstrated why he’s an NFL star in the making. With that said, Georgia drops in the college football rankings again because it’s still not performing at the level you’d expect from a championship contender. Georgia is 67th in yards per carry allowed this season after ranking in the top three in each of the last four seasons. This is clearly not the same Georgia of what we were used to over the last two seasons, when it won back-to-back championships. I probably have them ranked too high. 4. Ohio St Coming off the Week 5 bye, the Ohio State Buckeyes head into a favorable two-game stretch of their schedule. There are several big storylines surrounding this team heading into its Week 6 matchup against Maryland, including the confidence of first-year starting QB Kyle McCord, who led that memorable game-winning drive to beat the Irish in South Bend. Maryland will be competitive, but it’s a matchup the Buckeyes should walk away with fairly comfortably and the same goes for Purdue. On the defensive side of the ball, OSU has been stout all season long, holding opponents to 8.5 points per game and ranking second in the country in scoring defense. If all goes well, we’ll get Ohio State vs Penn State on Oct. 21with both programs boasting perfect records. 5. Florida St After a one-week recovery coming off the overtime victory on the road against Clemson, the Florida State Seminoles now stare down a perfect opportunity to be 6-0. Jordan Travis threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns to help the Seminoles snap a seven-game losing streak against ACC foe Clemson. The Seminoles went undefeated in September for the first time in years and if they can beat Virginia Tech and Syracuse, it will be the first time Florida State is 6-0 since 2015. Their win over LSU is looking a lot less impressive by the week, as the Tigers fell to 3-2 after dropping a game to Ole Miss this past weekend. Also, the Seminoles have been outgained by 100-plus yards in each of their last two games. That alone is a recipe for an upcoming disaster. 6. Oregon After what happened to USC in Boulder, the Oregon Ducks look even better. After trailing 6-0 at Stanford after the first quarter, the Ducks put their foot down and ran off 42 straight points in a dominant win over the Cardinal. Oregon is one of only two FBS teams averaging 50-plus points per game this season, with the other being USC. While Oregon might not have a quick strike offense that’s on the same level as the Trojans, it’s evident the Ducks’ defense is much better. Of course, head coach Dan Lanning will need to bring out every defensive trick and need his team to execute to near perfection for the Ducks to stop Washington and Michael Penix Jr. in Week 6. 7. Penn St It’s happening. Penn State was tied at the half with Northwestern this past weekend, and then, just like that, James Franklin's team came alive on both sides of the ball and cruised to a 41-13 win over the Wildcats. On an afternoon that saw Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combine for just 107 rushing yards on 27 attempts, quarterback Drew Allar stepped up. The efficiency (5.7 yards per attempt, 54.5% completion rate) was bad, but Allar responded to a 10-10 halftime score with two touchdowns and he helped the Nittany Lions outscore Northwestern 31-3 in the second half of the game. If it’s defense you’re looking for, look no further. The Nittany Lions' defense held Northwestern to just three points on its final nine drives, looking like the same group that was coming off a dominant showing against Iowa the previous week. This is a unit that ranks first in the country in total defense, and third in scoring defense, takeaways and sacks. 8. Washington The Washington Huskies are staring down a golden opportunity. This has been one of the best teams in college football in the last calendar year, with just a single loss on the resume since October 2022. If the Huskies can find a way to take out Oregon in Week 6, everyone will start talking up Michael Penix Jr. as the Heisman favorite as he leads Washington into the playoff hunt. Michael Penix Jr. leads the country in passing, averaging 400 yards per contest. He is the real deal, guiding an offense that is posting 569 yards per game, which leads all FBS teams, and 46 points per game, which ranks fourth. Now sitting at 5-0, Kalen DeBoer's team has a bye this weekend before hosting Oregon in a top-10 showdown on Oct. 14. 9. USC A notable drop for a winning team, and the Trojans defense is still very much a liability after allowing Colorado to score 48 points and make this close.Even in a win, Saturday was a massive disappointment for USC. This team is really good at football, and it has the best player in college football. USC is an elite team and an elite offense because of Caleb Williams. If teams were ranked based purely on offenses, Caleb Williams and the USC Trojans belong at No. 1. Unfortunately for Williams and Lincoln Riley, this Trojans’ defense is just as bad this season as it was in 2022. USC is 63rd in scoring defense and 103rd in total yards per game - and the Trojans haven't even faced the meat of their schedule yet. That's alarming. If you can only escape Colorado with a 48-41 victory, that doesn’t bode well for your program’s chances against Notre Dame, Utah, Washington and Oregon. 10. Oklahoma Oklahoma’s Brent Venables' team is putting up more than 47 points per game this season, while also holding opponents to under 11 points per contest. The stage is set for the Red River Rivalry. Oklahoma vs Texas, the final meeting between these two rivals in the Big 12 Conference. It’s fitting that the stakes couldn’t be higher for this game and both teams will take the field with explosive offenses. Oklahoma is 5-0, having won every game by at least 14 points. The Sooners are fresh off a 50-20 win over Iowa State, a game in which they outscored the Cyclones 29-0 over the final 2.5 quarters. Dillon Gabriel has thrown for 300-plus yards in four of the team's five games this season.

Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, EPL and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 10/03/2023

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Oct 03, 2023

The Tuesday sports card features MLB, EPL, and UEFA Champions League action.Major League Baseball begins the postseason with four games in the wildcard round of the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Texas Rangers on ABC-TV at 3:08 PM ET. The Rays earned the top wildcard slot in the American League with a 99-63 record. They have won four of their last five games after their 12-8 win in Toronto on Sunday. The Rangers lost three of their last four games after a 1-0 loss at Seattle on Sunday that cost them the AL West title. They settled for the second wildcard spot. Tyler Glasnow takes the ball for Tampa Bay to pitch against Jordan Montgomery for Texas. The Rays are a -155 money-line favorite, with the total set at 7.5 (all MLB odds from DraftKings). The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Toronto Blue Jays on ESPN at 4:38 PM ET. The Twins won the American League Central with an 87-75 record. They had won two games in a row before a 3-2 loss at Colorado on Sunday. The Blue Jays claimed the final wildcard in the AL with an 89-73 record. They have dropped two games in a row after their loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Minnesota taps Pablo Lopez to battle against Toronto’s Kevin Gausman. The Twins are a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers are at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks on ESPN2 at 7:08 PM ET. The Brewers won the National League Central with a 92-70 record. They have won four of their last five games after a 4-0 victory at home against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday. The Diamondbacks claimed the third and final spot in the NL wildcard race with an 84-78 record. They have lost four games in a row after an 8-1 loss to Houston on Sunday. Corbin Burnes takes the mound for Milwaukee to face Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks. The Brewers are a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins on ESPN at 8:08 PM ET. The Phillies took the top wildcard slot in the NL with a 90-72 record. They ended a three-game losing streak with a 9-1 victory in New York against the Mets on Sunday. The Marlins took the second NL wildcard spot with an 84-77 record. They were on a three-game winning streak before a 3-0 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Philadelphia sends out Zack Wheeler to pitch against Miami’s Jesus Luzardo. The Phillies are a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.Matchweek 7 in the English Premier League concludes with Burnley traveling to Luton Town at 2:30 PM ET in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM)Matchday 2 in the UEFA Champions League begins with eight group-stage matches. Two matches start at 12:45 PM ET. Union Berlin plays at home against Sporting Braga as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Real Sociedad is at RB Salzburg in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5.Six matches conclude the UCL card at 3 PM ET. Manchester United is at home against Galatasaray as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. Bayern Munich visits Copenhagen on the CBS Sports Network as a -2 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3.5. Arsenal is at Lens as a -1 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. PSV Eindhoven hosts Sevilla as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Real Madrid plays at Napoli in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5. Inter Milan plays at home against Benfica as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. All eight Champions League matches are available on Paramount+.

A.L. Wildcard Projection - Blue Jays vs Twins

by ASA, Inc.

Monday, Oct 02, 2023

ASA’s A.L. MLB Series Prediction – Blue Jays vs. TwinsPICK - Toronto Blue Jays +105 to win the series We are looking at the series in the American League between the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins. The Twins won the weak A.L. Central Division, thus are the hosts in this series despite having two less wins. It is well documented how poorly the Twins have fared in the postseason with 18 straight playoff losses dating back to 2004. Toronto had a team batting average of .256 which was slightly better than the Twins .243 and also owned a better on base percentage. Minnesota had the 7th best overall run differential in the league at +119, Toronto was 13th at +75. The Blue Jays averaged 8.79 hits per game while the Twins averaged 8.24. Minnesota struck out on average 10.21 times per game, while the Blue Jays averaged just 8.04 K’s per game. You can make a case the Blue Jays have the better overall pitching in this series too with a slight edge in team ERA at 3.77 versus 3.85 for Minnesota. Both teams are very close in strikeouts per game as the Twins ranked 1st in the Bigs, the Jays finished 3rd. Toronto had the stronger bullpen which owned a 3.68 ERA compared to the Twins 3.95 ERA. Minnesota was 47-34 SU at home this season with an average run differential of plus +0.7 per game, but the Blue Jays were 46-35 SU on the road with an average +/- of +0.8 runs p/game. The pressure is clearly on the young Twins and if they lose Game 1 it will be tough to recover. The Blue Jays have veteran Kevin Gausman on the mound in Game 1 and the Jays have won 4 of his last six starts. In Gausman’s last two starts he hasn’t allowed an earned run in 13 innings of work. Lopez didn’t finish the season strong with 18 hits allowed, 11 earned runs in just 15.1 innings in his last three starts. We won’t be surprised when the Blue Jays steal this series.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL and EPL Previews and Odds - 10/02/2023

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Oct 02, 2023

The Monday sports card features NFL and EPL action.Week 4 in the NFL concludes with the Seattle Seahawks playing on the road against the New York Giants on ABC, ESPN, and the ESPN2 Manningcast. The Seahawks have won two games in a row after their 37-27 victory against Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Seattle opened their season with a 30-13 loss at home against the Los Angeles Rams before beating Detroit on the road, 37-31. Their 2-1 record has them currently in second place in the NFL West behind the now 4-0 San Francisco 49ers. The Seahawks only have one giveaway this season, but they are last in the NFL in third-down defense. Head coach Pete Carroll has a 5-0 record with Seattle at MetLife Field, including their Super Bowl victory against the Denver Broncos in 2014. He does get safety Jamal Adams back for this game.The Giants come off a 30-12 loss at San Francisco as a 10.5-point underdog back on September 21st in the Thursday Night Football game for the third week of the season. New York opened the season with a 40-0 loss at home against Dallas on Sunday Night Football before rebounding with a 31-28 win at Arizona despite trailing by a 20-0 deficit. New York returns to Monday Night Football having lost their last seven games in this spot. Running back Saquon Barkley is listed as doubtful for this game with his ankle injury. The Giants have revenge on their minds after in Seattle, 27-13, as a 3-point underdog on October 30th. Seattle is a 1.5-point road favorite at DraftKings, with the total set at 42.5. Matchweek 7 in the English Premier League concludes with Chelsea playing at Fulham on the USA Network at 3 PM ET. The Blues are winless in their last three matches after a 1-0 loss at home to Aston Villa last Sunday. Their 0-0 draw at home at Bournemouth on September 17th is their only result in their last three contests. Chelsea opened their season 1-1 draw with Liverpool before losing 3-1 at West Ham United. Their lone victory this season was a 3-1 win at home against Luton Town before they lost at home to Nottingham Forest by a 1-0 score. With only five points this season, they rank 15th in the EPL standings. Fulham comes off a 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace last Saturday. The Cottagers have eight points this season from two wins and two drs in their six matches. Fulham opened their season with a 1-0 win at Everton before a 3-0 loss at home to Brentford. They went on the road to earn a 2-2 draw at Arsenal. They then lost on the road at Manchester City, 5-1, before beating Luton Town at home, 1-0, before their scoreless draw with Crystal Palace last week. Their eight points put them in a tie for 11th place in the EPL standings. Chelsea is a -0.5 goal-line road favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 2.5.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 10/01/2023

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Oct 01, 2023

The Sunday sports card features NFL, MLB, and EPL action.Week 4 in the NFL continues with 14 games. The Jacksonville Jaguars face the Atlanta Falcons in Wembley Stadium in London on ESPN+ at 9:30 AM ET as a 3-point favorite, with the total set at 42.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Nine NFL games kick off at 1 PM ET. The Los Angeles Rams play in Indianapolis against the Colts as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 45.5. The Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 43. The Denver Broncos travel to Chicago to play the Bears as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 46.5. The New Orleans Saints play at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 40. The Cleveland Browns are at home against the Baltimore Ravens as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 38.5. The Minnesota Vikings play at Carolina against the Panthers as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 46.5. The Pittsburgh Steelers are in Houston to play the Texans as a 3-point road favorite, with an over/under of 41.5. The Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 53.5. The Cincinnati Bengals visit Tennessee to play the Titans at 1 PM ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 41.5. The Los Angeles Chargers play at home against the Las Vegas Raiders at 4:05 PM ET as a 6-point favorite with a total of 48. Two more NFL games start at 4:25 PM ET. The San Francisco 49ers are at home against the Arizona Cardinals as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 43.5. The Dallas Cowboys host the New England Patriots as a 6-point favorite with a total of 43.5. Sunday Night Football on NBC features the Kansas City Chiefs playing in New York against the Jets at 8:20 PM ET. The Chiefs are a 9.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 41.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule in the final game of the regular season. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 3:05 PM ET. The Boston Red Sox travel to Baltimore to play the Orioles. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in San Francisco against the Giants as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Miami Marlins are in Pittsburgh to play the Pirates. Two MLB games start at 3:07 PM ET. The Oakland A’s play in Los Angeles against the Angels. The Tampa Bay Rays are in Toronto against the Blue Jays. Nine MLB games begin at 3:10 PM ET. The Detroit Tigers host the Cleveland Guardians as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros visit Arizona to play the Diamondbacks. The Texas Rangers play in Seattle against the Mariners. The Philadelphia Phillies are in New York to play the Mets. The San Diego Padres travel to Chicago to play the White Sox. The New York Yankees play the Kansas City Royals as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Minnesota Twins are in Milwaukee against the Brewers as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 3:10 PM ET. The Chicago Cubs play in Milwaukee against the Brewers as a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves host the Washington Nationals. The Cincinnati Reds play in St. Louis against the Cardinals at 3:15 PM ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Matchweek 7 in the English Premier League continues with one match. Nottingham Forest plays at home against Brentford on the USA Network in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5.

College Football 2023-23 Preview, Part Three -- 133 Questions and Thoughts for 133 FBS Teams

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, Sep 30, 2023

For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each FBS team takes about 30 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Part Three includes many of the teams that made their season debuts in September. BAYLOR: Was winning the Big 12 Championship in 2021 a fluke? After taking a step back with a 6-7 record after losing their final four games last year after a 30-15 loss to Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl last season, this is a critical season in assessing the culture of this program in the fourth season under head coach Dave Aranda. The Bears finished with an 11-3 record in his first season before falling to 2-7 during the COVID-impacted 2020 campaign. They did outgain their Big 12 rivals by +24 YPG. Yet Aranda’s stamp should be on the defensive side of the ball after previously serving as the defensive coordinator at LSU — and there seems to be a disconnect between his schemes with the Tigers and the game plans now with the Bears. With 12 starters back including junior quarterback Blake Shapen, another down season would place Aranda’s tenure in jeopardy. BYU: Will the Cougars have the physicality on their roster to sustain a full season of Power-Five conference play? Head coach Kalani Sitake’s team begins their first season in the Big 12 with 15 starters back from last year’s team that finished 8-5. They closed out the year by winning four games in a row culminating in a 24-23 victory against SMU in the New Mexico Bowl. Only five of their games were against Power-Five conference opponents or Notre Dame last year — and they went 2-3 in those five contests. Depth is a big concern for the roster — and they only return two starters apiece on the offensive and defensive lines. CINCINNATI: Did former head coach Luke Fickell leave this program at just the right time? After six seasons coaching the Bearcats, Fickell took the head coaching job at Wisconsin. The Cincinnati brass turned to Scott Satterfield who had four up-and-down seasons at Louisville where he often seemed to have one foot out the door with his battles with their administration. Only nine starters are back from last year’s group that finished 9-4 after a 24-7 loss against the Cardinals in the Fenway Bowl in Satterfield’s last game coaching for Louisville. Now the Bearcats make their debut in a Power Five conference with their move from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12. CLEMSON: After making the College Football Playoffs in six straight years, Clemson has lost three games in each of the last two seasons. Was this program temporarily propped up by two great coordinators while getting lucky with two generational talents at quarterback in Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence? Both offensive coordinator Tony Elliott and defensive coordinator Brent Venables left the program after the 2021-22 season to become head coaches elsewhere. Head coach Dabo Swinney seemed to point the finger at D.J. Uiagalelei as the source of the problem when he benched him for freshman Cade Klubnik in the ACC Championship Game. But Klubnik was shaky in the Orange Bowl against a suspect Tennessee defense by throwing two interceptions and failing to execute on numerous occasions in the red zone. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley to implement the Air Raid offense he installed as the offensive coordinator for TCU last year — and the defense remains loaded with blue-chip talent destined for the NFL. But the secret sauce may be gone and it’s not as simple an explanation as Uiagelelei let them down the last two years. COASTAL CAROLINA: After 30 victories in the previous three seasons, will this program experience a drop-off after Jamey Caldwell took the head coaching job at Liberty? The cupboard is not empty with 30 seniors or super sixth-year seniors returning led by quarterback Grayson McCall, the three-time Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But despite their 6-2 conference record, the Chanticleers got outgained by -20 Yards-Per-Game against Sun Belt opponents. North Carolina State offensive coordinator Tim Beck got tapped as their new head coach — but this team will go as far as their defense can play well. Six starters return to a unit switching to a 4-3 formation after ranking 110th in the FBS by allowing 31.8 Points-Per-Game and 101st in the nation by giving up 418.0 Yards-Per-Game. This team won all five of their games decided by one scoring possession — and that will be difficult to come close to replicating if the defense does not improve. COLORADO: Can head coach Deion Sanders' massive transfer portal reset rebuild both lines simultaneously with all the influx of skill-position talent on both sides of the ball? Sanders brought with him several players from his Jackson State squad including his son, Shedeur Sanders, at quarterback and two-way cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter who was the number one recruit in the 2021 class. With at least 33 transfer players and another 19 freshmen signings, the Buffaloes have seen an 80% turnover in the roster from a team that finished 1-11 last year. After losing 21 of 26 games, the program can only go up under Sanders’ guidance. But the grunt work is in the trenches. Their offensive line has 44 career starts and is small for a Power Five program. The defensive line is dependent on transfers with no starters back and is also on the small side. Depth is also an issue — especially on the offensive and defensive lines. DUKE: Is it too easy and misguided to disregard the Blue Devils simply because they thrived on a soft schedule last season? They only played four teams with a winning record — and just two of their nine victories were against FBS programs with a winning record. And while their +16 net turnover margin helped them out tremendously, the Regression Gods are likely to make their presence known this year with their actual net turnover rate coming closer to their expected net turnover rate again. But all four of the Blue Devils' losses were by eight points or less. They have a future NFLer at quarterback in junior Riley Leonard who passed for 2967 yards last year and added 699 yards on the ground. He has his three starting wide receivers and his starting tight end back from last year. And while I do not expect this team to enjoy another +16 net turnover margin, forcing turnovers is a skill — Duke had 10 interceptions and 16 fumble recoveries for head coach Mike Elko who has eight starters back on that side of the ball in his second season with the program.FLORIDA STATE: Are the glory days back for the Seminoles in the fourth season under head coach Mike Norvell? They led the ACC by outgaining their opponents by +164.6 net YPG — and 11 All-ACC players are back from that group that won their final six games. The defense returns six of the top seven tacklers that ranked 14th in the nation by holding their opponents to 321.8 total YPG. Norvell is also hitting the transfer portal well with 11 new players coming into the program — and I like the way he is integrating these players with the foundation of his team. Norvell committed to getting younger players on the field in the first three years with the program — and those juniors and seniors now form the core of this team. Senior quarterback Jordan Travis is an intriguing NFL prospect. He was initially a run-first dual-threat option under center who has made great strides in improving his passing game. He passed for 3214 yards last year while being graded the top offensive player in the ACC by Pro Football Focus. Of particular note is his decision-making as he had only five interceptions with only 1.9% of his snaps under center resulted in a turnover-worthy play. Depth remains an issue for this team that is still rebuilding after four straight losing seasons. Has this program turned just a corner — or all of the corners — necessary to return to College Football Playoff contention?FRESNO STATE: Can the Bulldogs come close to replacing the production that Jake Haener provided them at quarterback the last three seasons? Junior Logan Fife had five starts last year when Haener got injured early in the season. Head coach Jeff Tedford also brought sophomore Mikey Keene from Central Florida in the transfer portal. Only four starters on the offensive line return for the entire offensive unit that ranked 51st and 52nd in the nation by scoring 30.6 PPG and averaging 402.8 YPG. Five of the top six targets in the passing game must be replaced along with running back Jordan Mims who rushed for 1370 yards with 18 rushing touchdowns last year. GEORGIA SOUTHERN: Can head coach Clay Helton get his defense under control after they ranked 128th in the nation by giving up 487.7 Yards-Per-Game? The Eagles replace eight of their top-ten tacklers along with nine of the 12 players who logged in 300 or more snaps — but that might be addition by subtraction. Helton’s team was 4-4 in games decided by one-scoring possession despite going up at least 30 points in four of those contests. Despite ranking 18th in the nation by generating 465.9 YPG, they still got outgained by 83 YPG in the Sun Belt because of their porous defense. GEORGIA STATE: After three straight winning seasons, the Panthers dropped to 4-8 last year. Is this team trending in the wrong direction in the seventh-year under head coach Shawn Elliott — or were they simply snake-bit by losing all five of their games decided by seven points or less by a combined 18 points? One-third of the roster has turned over either from transfers or exhausted eligibility — but senior dual-threat quarterback Darren Grainger is back after rushing for 908 non-sacking rushing yards and tossing 19 touchdown passes with only four interceptions.ILLINOIS: How close can the Fighting Illini get to replicating the performance of their defense that led the nation by holding their opponents to 12.8 PPG and ranked third in the FBS by allowing only 273.5 YPG? Second-year head coach Bret Bielema has already made this program the new Wisconsin (especially with the sacrilege of the Badgers moving to an Air Raid offense this season). He loses four defensive backs who got drafted into the NFL — along with running back Chase Brown who led Power Five teams in rushing. Some red flags exist. After holding their first nine opponents to just 232 YPG, their last four opponents generated 367 YPG against them. It will be difficult to repeat their +15 net turnover margin which was the third-best mark in the FBS. But bringing Bielema’s smash-mouth football to Champagne improved the scoring by +4.1 PPG — and they outgained their conference opponents by +75 net YPG, the fourth-best mark in the Big Ten. All four of their conference losses were by one scoring possession — and ten All-Big performers return to the roster. IOWA: Can the Hawkeyes develop an even mid-level offensive attack? They scored only 17.7 Points-Per-Game and generated just 251.5 total Yards-Per-Game last season, ranking 122nd and 129th in the nation. Head coach Kirk Ferentz, in his 25th year with the program, may be forced to abandon nepotism if things do not improve this year with his son, Brian, only renewed on a one-year contract to continue as the offensive coordinator with the stipulations being the team has to register at least seven wins while generating 25.5 PPG. The senior Ferentz turned to Michigan for help by bringing senior quarterback Cade McNamara and senior tight end Erick All as transfers to help jumpstart the offense. But there are reasons why both players were not first-stringers for the Wolverines last year. The Iowa defense should once again be thought with 10 of the 16 players who logged at least 200 snaps returning. They were second in the nation by allowing only 13.3 PPG and 270.8 YPG. But Ferentz’s style of play on offense helps the defense — so significant changes on offense could disrupt the formula on defense. KANSAS: How high is the ceiling for the Jayhawks after they snapped their 14-year bowl drought in a wild 55-53 loss to Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl? Third-year head coach Lance Leipold had ten starters back on offense along with over 90% of their production from that group ranked 20th in the nation by scoring 35.6 PPG. Junior quarterback Jalon Daniels ranked second in the nation in Total QBR despite missing four games with a separated shoulder. But can they stop anyone after ranking 126th in the nation by surrendering 469.4 YPG with their last four opponents scoring 43 PPG against them? Leipold is relying on the transfer portal to fill a defensive line that does not return any of their four starters — but he seems to be winning in the transfer window wars and bringing in more talent into Lawrence than what he is losing. LSU: Are the Tigers a bit overvalued right now coming off a fortunate opening season under head coach Brian Kelly that concluded with their 63-7 blowout victory against Purdue in their bowl game that was severely undermanned due to the roster exodus after the Boilermakers' head coach left the program. Despite posting a 6-2 record in SEC play that was headlined by a signature victory against Alabama, LSU got outgained by -5.0 Yards-Per-Game against conference opponents. They benefited from +2 net close wins decided by one scoring possession — so they were close to being an 8-6 team which correlates with their net yardage numbers. The Tigers had a big play problem on both sides of the ball. While ranking sixth in overall Success Rate on offense, they fell to 101st in Marginal Explosiveness. On defense, LSU ranked 20th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed but fell to 50th in Opponent Marginal Explosiveness Allowed. Their defense returns only nine of the 18 players who logged in at least 200 snaps — and they lost seven defensive backs who got playing time last season. Kelly tried to fortify the back end with transfers — and perhaps he succeeded in upgrading the talent — but depth remains a problem. MIDDLE TENNESSEE: Will the Blue Raiders be a better team this season but fail to replicate or improve on their 8-5 record? Head coach Rick Stockstill’s team pulled off five upsets and benefited from a +12 net turnover margin which made up for a -44 net Yards-Per-Game mark in Conference USA play. The defense has eight starters back along with 12 of the 15 players who logged in at least 300 snaps. The offense has five starters back along with sophomore Nick Vattiato who was the Conference USA Freshman of the Year in 2021 while earning MVP in the Bahamas Bowl before only playing in two games last season with senior Chase Cunningham returning from injury to reclaim the starting job. They did win five of their last six games including a 25-23 win against San Diego State in Hawai’i Bowl. MISSOURI: Will this team continue to underwhelm on offense under head coach Eli Drinkwitz? The former Appalachian State head coach was hired to install his innovative pro-style offense that featured multiple personnel groupings in a no-huddle attack. But the Tigers have not ranked higher than 59th in the FBS in scoring and 61st in total yardage in his first three seasons. Seven starters are back on offense from a unit that scored only 24.8 PPG and generated 369.8 YPG last year, ranking 85th and 81st in the nation. Drinkwitz is relinquishing the play-calling to his new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore who comes over after two seasons as the OC at Fresno State. NEVADA: Can second-year head coach Ken Wilson raise the floor as to what to expect from his defense? The former Oregon defensive coordinator inherited a dumpster fire last year after the Wolf Pack’s previous head coach Mike Norvell took many of the players with him when he bolted for the Colorado State job. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno last season. But the Wolf Pack did hold eight of their opponents to just 23.3 PPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play with the potent offenses from Boise State, Fresno State, Air Force, and Incarnate Word being the outliers. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball. NOTRE DAME: Can the Fighting Irish compete for the College Football Playoff by repeating the power rushing attack they successfully deployed last season —and if not, is adding Sam Hartman at quarterback enough to transform the passing attack against elite competition? The Irish lost their first three games in the first three games under head coach Marcus Freeman last season with them only scoring 23.7 PPG and generating 5.6 Yards-Per-Play in their first six games. But after switching to a power-rushing attack, the Fighting Irish scored 38.7 PPG and averaged 6.2 YPP — and they returned two great starting tackles to serve as the foundation for this approach. Hartman offers the hope of a more sophisticated passing attack after passing for more than 300 YPG in the last two seasons for Wake Forest. But is there a true number-one wide receiver option from a unit that ranked sixth-to-last in receptions of 40 or more yards last year? OHIO STATE: Head coach Ryan Day has reached the College Football Playoff in three of the first four years under his leadership — but is his zeal to mold a team prepared for those potential games making the Buckeyes vulnerable against their biggest obstacle to winning a Big Ten Championship? Michigan has beaten them by 15 and 22 points in the last two seasons by controlling both sides of the line of scrimmage. Previous head coach Urban Meyer has subtly suggested that the program has gotten softer regarding their physicality with all the speed on the roster — and Day is certainly aware of this criticism. After four years of Justin Fields and C.J. Stroud under center, Day has to find a new quarterback this season amidst this challenge. And attention must be paid to their defense that allowed 87 combined points and a whopping 8.9 Yards-Per-Play in their last two games against the Wolverines and then Georgia in the playoff semifinals. OREGON: How close can head coach Dan Lanning get the Ducks’ defense to perform like his Georgia teams when he was their defensive coordinator from 2019-21? In his first year in Eugene, his defense ranked 74th and 70th in the FBS by allowing 27.4 PPG and 381.2 YPG. The deeper metrics were even more unkind with the Ducks’ defense ranking 99th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and 108th in Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. The pass rush generated only 18 sacks which was the lowest in school history. Their pass defense ranked 101st in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 256.4 passing YPG. There was a large gap between the physicality of the Ducks’ defense last year and what Lanning’s Georgia defenses brought to the table. But Oregon still outgained their Pac-12 opponents by +136 net YPG due to a dynamic offense that ranked 10th and 6th in the nation by scoring 38.8 PPG and generating 500.5 YPG. Fifth-year senior QB Bo Nix completed 71.9% of his passes while limiting his mistakes with only seven interceptions and taking just five sacks. OREGON STATE: Can the Beavers take the next step and challenge for a Pac-12 Championship? They won their final four games of the season including a 30-3 dominant win over Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl to complete a 10-3 campaign. But all three of their losses were in conference play where they finished a solid 6-3 — but they lost to both USC and Washington by a field goal and got thumped by Utah by a 42-16 score in Salt Lake City. Head coach Jonathan Smith has 13 starters back in his sixth year with the program — and he may have scored an upgrade at quarterback with D.J. Uigalelei transferring in from Clemson. The former five-star recruit had a 22-9 career record as a starter for the Tigers. PENN STATE: With two of the four College Football Playoff teams in their division in the Big Ten conference, can the Nittany Lions reach the elite level necessary to compete against Ohio State and Michigan? They have lost nine of their last 12 games against the traditional Big Two in the conference since 2017. Even worse, they are winless in their last ten games against top-ten opponents in the last six seasons under head coach James Franklin. The hope is that the team is ready to take this final step with the offense turning over to sophomore blue-chipper Drew Allar at quarterback after four years of the capable if unspectacular Sean Clifford under center. PURDUE: How will first-year head coach Ryan Walters mesh with his offensive coordinator Graham Harrell who will be installing an Air Raid offense he previously oversaw at West Virginia and USC? Walters previously served as the defensive coordinator at Missouri and then Illinois last year which were mostly defensive-oriented smash-mouth teams. Walters’ last season with Missouri was in the first season under Eliah Drinkwitz in 2020 when he installed a no-huddle attack — and that Mizzo team gave up 49.3 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. Walters was not retained the next season which allowed Bret Bielema to snatch him up when he took the Illinois head coaching job in 2021. SAM HOUSTON STATE: How much can be gleaned from the Bearkats 2022 season since head coach K.C. Keeler redshirted many of his key players since the program was ineligible to win a title in their last season before making the transition from the FCS to FBS this year? Sam Houston State won the FCS National Championship in the season that ended in the spring of 2021. Sixteen starters are back from last year’s team that posted a 5-4 record against exclusively FCS opponents. Keeler did bring in several transfers including sophomore quarterback Grant Gunnell from North Texas who was once a blue-chip prospect for Arizona. TEMPLE: Can the Owls continue the progress they demonstrated in the second half of last season under first-year head coach Stan Drayton? After getting outgained by -105 net Yards-Per-Game in their first seven contests, they outgained their final five opponents by +29 YPG. But they still finished 3-9 last season after Drayton inherited a team gutted by transfers with the program turning to their sixth head coach in seven seasons after the disastrous Rod Carey era came to an end. Sixteen starters return from last year led by quarterback E.J. Warner, the son of the legendary NFL quarterback, but roster depth remains a significant challenge. TEXAS TECH: Is head coach Joey McGuire leading this program in the right direction — or was their 8-5 record simply the by-product of some overdue but temporary good fortune? The Red Raiders won three games in overtime to help them sweep all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. After five straight losing seasons under head coaches Kliff Kingsbury and then Matt Wells, this program has had winning seasons in two straight years. McGuire has 17 starters and 15 sixth-year super seniors back from last year’s team that beat Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl by a 42-25 score. But can the talent level match the high-end rosters in the Big 12 conference? One of the appeals of McGuire was his ability to recruit Texas talent after his 13 seasons of coaching at the high school level in the state. Getting a full season out of the often-injured quarterback Tyler Slough would go a long way. The fifth-year senior was 5-0 as a starter last year before missing the final four games due to injury.TULSA: Will the Golden Hurricane be even worse on defense this season after ranking 116th and 98th in the FBS last year by allowing 33.1 Points-Per-Game and 414.2 total Yards-Per-Game? First-year head coach Kevin Wilson did not even hire a defensive coordinator until after spring practice. The Ohio State offensive coordinator for the last six seasons and former Indiana head coach from 2011-2016 eventually tapped UT-Martin defensive coordinator Chris Polizzi as his new DC — but there is a lot of work to do with a unit that lost six of their top eight tacklers from last year’s unit. Nine starters are back, including five on defense, from the team that finished 5-7. WESTERN KENTUCKY: How high is the ceiling for this program if they start winning more of their close games? The Hilltoppers have enjoyed 9-5 campaigns for two straight seasons despite posting a 2-7 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They led Conference USA by outgaining their opponents by +136 net Yards-Per-Game but Red Zone issues have held them back. They ranked 84th in the FBS last season with a touchdown rate of 58.3% with their Red Zone trips. On defense, they ranked 67th in the nation by allowing touchdowns in 60% of their opponent’s trips into the Red Zone. Eleven starters are back including senior quarterback Austin Reed who chose to not transfer away after leading the FBS with 4746 passing yards. Best of luck -- Frank.

NFL 2023-23 Preview, Part One -- 16 Questions and Thoughts for 16 NFC Teams

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, Sep 30, 2023

For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic notetaking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team takes about an hour to 90 minutes of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here are my NFC teams (and I will add more of the writeups as the weeks move on).CAROLINA PANTHERS: The Panthers played pretty well under interim head coach Steve Wilks last season — is that a sign of things to come or simply a dead cat bounce from the ending of the Matt Rhule tenure? Carolina posted an 11-27 record in the two-plus seasons under Rhule — but they closed out the season with a 6-6 record under Wilks last year to finish the year with a 7-10 record. All five starters on the offensive line are back on an underrated unit. But the team lost important pieces on offense when they traded wide receiver D.J. Moore to Chicago in their acquisition of the first pick in the NFL draft which they used to select quarterback Bryce Young. They did not resign running back D’Onta Foreman despite all he does is overachieve when given the opportunity with the football. The Panthers did take a chance on Philadelphia running back Miles Sanders in free agency — but the future of the offense lies in Young and new head coach Frank Reich’s ability to steward the 5’10 QB in the league. CHICAGO BEARS: How much of Justin Fields’ slow development is on him — and how much of it is on the lack of support around him? His vision down the field and accuracy on his throw remain works in progress. He holds on to the ball too long — his 3.12 seconds-per-throw was the fourth-highest in the NFL. But the Bears might have had the least dynamic wide receiving units in the league. And the offensive line was a sieve — 38 of the 58 sacks they gave up (fourth most in the NFL) came against just three or four rushers who were able to generate pressure 38.3% of the time (highest in the NFL). Patrick Mahomes would likely struggle with that set of receivers when defenses are content to play eight seven or eight defenders in pass coverage who are still applying pressure two times every five plays. Acquiring wide receiver D.J. Moore was an essential piece in trading away the first pick in the NFL draft to Carolina — and general manager Ryan Poles drafted right tackle Darnell Wright with one of his first-round picks to address the offensive line. DALLAS COWBOYS: Head coach Mike McCarthy takes over the play-calling for the now-departed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore — but does the offense have the talent to successfully run the ball more and transition to a more conventional West Coast offense? I simply don’t know if moving on from Moore will help or hurt this offense (I suspect help, but I have don’t a strong opinion — and we will have much more information to evaluate that question as this season moves forward). Perhaps getting the ball out quicker will help establish Michael Gallup and Brandin Cooks as the reliable secondary options to wide receiver CeeDee Lamb that this offense has lacked. Can Tony Pollard handle lead running back responsibilities with the team not resigning Ezekiel Elliott — and who will inherit Elliott’s elite pass-blocking and short-yardage running skills? DETROIT LIONS: Is this a franchise that is treating their lame-duck upset victory at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers in the final regular season game of the season as an indication that they are just a player or two away from a deep playoff run? While the league is moving away from investing heavily in running backs and linebackers, the Lions signed David Montgomery to a three-year $18 million deal in the offseason and then drafted a running back with the 12th pick in the first round of the NFL draft. They then drafted a linebacker at the 18th pick in the first round despite other past first-rounders at that position not getting the option taken on the fifth year of their rookie contract. This is a team that outgained in yardage last season after Carolina put up 570 total yards against them in Week 15 in a 37-23 loss that ultimately kept them out of the postseason. With all the hype around a franchise that has not won a playoff game since 1991, what happens if they get off to another slow start?GREEN BAY PACKERS: Will the Packers respond similarly as the Seattle Seahawks did last year once their long-time franchise quarterback was granted his trade request? The Seahawk players seemed happy to see Russell Wilson leave — and perhaps the Packer players were pleased to tell Aaron Rodgers to not let the door hit him as he left for New York. While head coach Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat in his fifth year with the team, he gets to fully implement his vision of the offense without catering to the whims of Rodgers. And with Jordan Love, he may have the type of player that Kyle Shanahan was hoping to unlock with Trey Lance: a point guard-styled quarterback who offers the additional weapon with his mobility. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: Is general manager Mickey Loomis simply in denial regarding the impending salary cap disaster awaiting this organization — or is he shrewdly kicking the can continually down the road? The Saints are poised to be $61.7 million in the hole versus the cap next season — and Loomis has already allocated $253 million for 2025 for what are mostly older players. They were the oldest team in the NFL last year with an average age of 27.5. But with the NFC South wide open after Tom Brady’s retirement, Loomis addressed the quarterback problem by signing Derek Carr to a four-year deal with $100 million of his $150 million contract guaranteed. With the veteran at quarterback throwing to Chris Olave and a healthy Michael Thomas along with a defense that held their final ten opponents to 14.5 PPG, the Saints are seen as the favorites to win a division consisting of three rebuilding rivals. NEW YORK GIANTS: I think everyone understands that the Giants were incredibly fortunate to reach the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs last year after getting outscored and outgained in yardage during the regular season. Posting an 8-4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession got them into the playoffs — and they had an opportune first-round draw against a Minnesota team that had an even more improbable 11-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession. But last year’s good fortunes do not disqualify this team from improving the 8-9 team that the underlying analytics grading this team out as. Daboll immediately fixed Jones’ turnover problems as the fifth-year pro threw only five interceptions — and his 1.1% interception rate was the best in the NFL for regular starting QBs. Could the team add team speed, find more playmakers on offense to stretch the field, and improve their run defense? If so, then they could certainly develop into a more deserving playoff team this season. Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA metrics ranked them as the seventh-best team in the league, for what that is worth. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: How good was the Eagles' defense actually last season? They ranked second in total defense last season by allowing only 301.5 total Yards-Per-Game — but I considered that unit overrated going into the Super Bowl which was one of the reasons we were Kansas City and the Over in that game. The Eagles benefited from a soft schedule and some fortunate breaks regarding injuries to opposing quarterbacks. They beat a 49ers team lacking a quarterback that could throw a forward pass in the second half of the NFC Championship Game. They caught Dallas without Dak Prescott for a game. They beat the New York Giants with Daniel Jones three times. The best quarterback that they may have beaten all season was Trevor Lawrence — or maybe Jared Goff — and both those games against Jacksonville and Detroit were in the first half of the season before both those teams made big second-half improvements. Now this Philly defense lost five starters in the offseason.SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: The 49ers may have the best roster in the NFL but the biggest question remains: how good will their play be at the quarterback position? For those of us who handicapped every Brock Purdy game when he played in college at Iowa State, we appreciate why he was Mr. Irrelevant in the NFL draft. With 48 career starts, he has tons of experience which helps his decision-making. And because he is accurate in the short and intermediate passing game, perhaps he is a great fit for the Kyle Shanahan offense. But he lacks arm strength for a dynamic vertical passing game — and he threw too many interceptions for the Cyclones when asked to be a gunslinger. In the playoffs last season, Seattle, Dallas, and then Philadelphia exposed his tendency to bail to his left when under pressure (and it contributed to his wrist injury). The loss of right tackle Mike McGlinchey to Denver in free agency may haunt this team since ample time is an essential requirement for the Shanahan offense to purr — and Purdy holds on to the ball a little longer than Jimmy Garoppolo. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: Can Geno Smith maintain his level of play from last season? He led the NFL with a 69.8% completion percentage last year while winning the Comeback Player Of the Year Award. Arm talent was never the issue for the former West Virginia quarterback — he was the 39th pick in the 2013 NFL draft. He is more mature now — and he has clearly learned from working with Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning. Perhaps there would be more success stories like Smith’s if quarterbacks received more opportunities in the second half of their career. On the other hand, Smith did regress after his great start in his first five games last season. All 11 of his interceptions took place in his final 11 games — and the Seahawks lost six of their last nine games. Perhaps his decline in play was due to the injury issues on their offensive line. Smith did lead the NFL in completion percentage above expectation which suggests he was not simply lucky to be seeing good results. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: Is this team being too quickly dismissed by critics in their first season after Tom Brady’s retirement? The defense still has stalwarts like nose tackle Vita Vea, linebackers Devin White, Lavonte David, and Shaquille Barrett along with cornerback Carlton Davis III and safety Antoine Winfield, Jr. from their outstanding defense in their 2021 Super Bowl championship team. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain one of the best wide receivers in the league. The team signed the much-maligned Baker Mayfield as a free agent who has not met the expectations of being a former number-one pick in the NFL draft. But no one can question Mayfield’s toughness and he is much more popular inside the locker room than he by the media and fans. He does have a history of playing better as an underdog with a chip on his shoulder. With Brady gone and previous head coach Bruce Arians no longer making his presence felt, second-year head coach Todd Bowles has the opportunity to define this team in his image.WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: How good can Sam Howell be for this team? While he was drafted only in the fifth round in the 2022 NFL draft, he was considered as potentially a first-round talent after his sophomore season at North Carolina in 2020. He regressed in his third season with the Tar Heels — but perhaps much of that blame should go to the graduation of his top two targets in the passing game along with two running back drafted into the NFL. Howell possesses natural leadership skills — and no one will question his arm strength. If he can improve pocket presence and decision-making, he seems capable of being a productive starter in the league. Best of luck — Frank.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB, CFL, and EPL Previews and Odds - 09/30/2023

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Sep 30, 2023

The Saturday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, CFL, and EPL action.The fifth week in NCAAF college football concludes with 49 games between FBS opponents. Six nationally televised games between FBS opponents kick off at noon ET. Utah State travels to Connecticut on the CBS Sports Network as a 4-point road favorite, with the total set at 51 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). USC plays at Colorado on Fox as a 21.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 72.5. Clemson is at Syracuse on ABC as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 53. James Madison hosts South Alabama on ESPNU as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 49.5. Tulane plays at home against UAB on ESPN2 as a 21.5-point favorite with a total of 58. Kentucky is at home against Florida on ESPN as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 44. Boston College hosts Virginia on The CW at 2 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 52.5. Six NCAAF games on national television start at 3:30 PM ET. Michigan plays at Nebraska on Fox as a 17.5-point road favorite with a total of 39.5. Georgia is at Auburn on CBS as a 14-point road favorite with an over/under of 45. Toledo plays at home against Northern Illinois on ESPNU as a 13-point favorite with a total of 48. Texas is at home against Kansas on ABC as a 16-point favorite with an over/under of 61. Central Florida hosts Baylor on the CBS Sports Network as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 56.5. Purdue plays at home against Illinois on Peacock as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 53.5. Memphis is at home against Boise State on ESPN2 at 4 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 58.5. LSU travels to Mississippi to play Ole Miss on ESPN as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 67.5. Two nationally televised NCAAF games begin at 7 PM ET. Georgia Southern hosts Coastal Carolina on the NFL Network as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 66. Oklahoma plays at home against Iowa State on FS1 as a 20-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5. Three more NCAAF games are on national television at 7:30 PM ET. Notre Dame is on the road at Duke on ABC a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 52.5. Iowa is at home against Michigan State on NBC as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 36.5. SMU hosts Charlotte on ESPNU as a 22.5-point favorite with a total of 53.5. Two more nationally-televised NCAAF games start at 8 PM ET. TCU plays at home against West Virginia on ESPN2 as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 52. Air Force is at home against San Diego State on the CBS Sports Network as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 42.5. Alabama plays at Mississippi State on ESPN at 9 PM ET as a 14.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 46.5. Fresno State hosts Nevada on FS1 as a 24.5-point favorite with a total of 51.5.Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Cleveland Guardians travel to Detroit to play the Tigers at 1:10 PM ET. The Tampa Bay Rays play in Toronto against the Blue Jays at 3:07 PM ET as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Philadelphia Phillies are in New York to play the Mets in the first game of their doubleheader at 4:10 PM ET as a -122 money-line road favorite. The Miami Marlins visit Pittsburgh to play the Pirates at 6:35 PM ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Four MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 PM ET. The Chicago Cubs play in Milwaukee against the Brewers. The San Diego Padres are in Chicago to play the White Sox as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The New York Yankees travel to Kansas City to play the Royals. The Phillies play on the road against the Mets in the second game of their doubleheader. Three MLB games start at 7:15 PM ET. The Cincinnati Reds travel to St. Louis to play the Cardinals as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Fox has two games for its regional coverage. The Texas Rangers play in Seattle against the Mariners. The Baltimore Orioles play at home against the Boston Red Sox as a -135 money-line favorite. The Atlanta Braves are at home against the Washington Nationals at 7:20 PM ET as a -355 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two MLB games begin at 8:10 PM ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Houston Astros as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Minnesota Twins are in Colorado against the Rockies. Two more games conclude the MLB card at 9:05 PM ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in San Francisco against the Giants as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Oakland A’s are in Los Angeles to play the Dodgers. Week 17 in the Canadian Football League concludes with two games. The Montreal Alouettes visit Ottawa to play the Redblacks at 4 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 48. The Hamilton Tiger-Cats play at home against the Calgary Stampeders at 7 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 47.5. Matchweek 7 in the English Premier League begins with eight matches. Brighton and Hove Albion travels to Aston Villa on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET in a pick ‘em match with a total of 3.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Six EPL matches start at 10 AM ET. Arsenal plays at Bournemouth as a -1 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Everton is at home against Luton Town as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Manchester United hosts Crystal Palace on the USA Network as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Newcastle United plays at home against Burnley as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. West Ham United is at home against Sheffield United as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. Manchester City visits Wolverhampton as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3. Liverpool plays at Tottenham on the USA Network at 12:30 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3.5.

NFL Top 10 Rankings (Week 4)

by Wayne Root

Friday, Sep 29, 2023

We’re down to only three teams undefeated thru the first three weeks. 1. San Francisco (3-0) Although Christian McCaffrey is off to the races for a scrimmage crown, Brock Purdy is dealing at a high level to George Kittle and all of his weapons, making it even easier on the defense to tee off. Brock Purdy is still undefeated but there’s one package that teams can bring; blitz. Teams are likely to continue trying to heat up Purdy with the blitz even though he's had success against it, but it would also help if the Niners, especially on the right side of the line, continue to improve. The Niners have also allowed one of the highest pressure percentages (33.3%) in the NFL. That’s their only weakness. Defense is definitely solid. The 49ers host Arizona this week. 2. Miami (3-0) Miami needs to shore up a few things defensively under Vic Fangio and will be helped with healthier bodies, including Jalen Ramsey. The Dolphin’s lead the NFL in total yards per game (550.3), passing yards (362), rushing yards (188.3), offensive expected points added (66.97), yards per play (8.4) and scoring per game (43.3). Additionally, it's hard to find an issue on a team that just scored 70 points with 726 yards of offense in a single game. Offensively, they keep finding more speed to boost Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill, now with a dynamic 1-2 punch in the running game with Raheem Mostert and rookie De'Von Achane. They have a huge statement game at Buffalo as a 3 point underdog. 3. Philadelphia (3-0) The Eagles need to get Jalen Hurts back to high efficiency in the passing game again. Defenses have often been dropping eight players into coverage while keeping safeties back to force Jalen Hurts into mostly short passes. Therefore, Philadelphia enters their Week 3 matchup against the Bucs ranked 27th in passing yards per game (162.5). The Eagles have needed to grind a little with their offense early but found their dominant rushing attack in Weeks 2 and 3. The Eagles host a much improved Washington team favored by -7. 4. Buffalo (2-1) The Bills have completed back-to-back lopsided wins, so it hasn't been a game-altering issue, but minimizing long situations on later downs would help the efficiency of the offense. They are not moving the ball on first down putting extra pressure on 2nd and 3rd down. That’s a poor formula for success. Their defense needed a stellar shutdown performance and that also came in Washington. Giddy up for Buffalo hosting Miami in an epic AFC East clash in Week 4. 5. Dallas (2-1) In the past two games, Dallas has scored a touchdown on 3 of 11 red zone drives. The best red zone teams run the ball into the end zone but against the Cardinals, the Cowboys were without three starting offensive linemen. The Cowboys took the Cardinals lightly offensively, and once they fell behind, they couldn't dig deep enough with Dak Prescott to recover. They need Dak Prescott to be more accurate in tight quarters. They need Dak Prescott to be more accurate in tight quarters. And let’s not get started on what role Coach Mike McCarthy plays. Last season, they scored touchdowns on 40 of 56 red zone trips. Not having Trevon Diggs may be a bigger emotional blow to the defense than anticipated. Dallas is at Jerry’s Palace hosting New England favored by a touchdown. 6. Kansas City (2-1) Chris Jones' pressure and a dominant pass defense have been more impressive early as the Chiefs' defense is the big story early in the season. They're getting slowly revved up offensively toward their super standards with more diversity in the passing and running games for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have dropped 5.3% of their passes, which is tied for the sixth-worst rate in the league. Many of their drops came in the season opener against the Lions and were a major reason for the Chiefs' only defeat. The Chiefs are on the road in New Jersey as a big favorite over the Jets on Sunday Night Football. 7. Cleveland (2-1) Cleveland might be the sneaky new AFC North favorites. The Browns are coming off a dominant win over the Tennessee Titans, and QB Deshaun Watson delivered his best performance in a Browns uniform, completing 82% of his passes. Was this effort dedicated to missing Nick Chubb being out for the year? These next two games -- against the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers -- should reveal whether Watson and the Browns' passing attack can actually carry Cleveland to the playoffs. We get to see who’s the best so far in the AFC East as they host the Ravens. Early money has come on on Cleveland. 8. Baltimore (2-1) The Ravens got a little sloppy in the wet conditions at home and it cost them against the Colts in overtime. QB Lamar Jackson nearly has as many rushing yards (193) as all of Baltimore's running backs combined (249). Baltimore has been hardest hit at running back. In addition to the season-ending Achilles injury to Dobbins, two other backs have suffered injuries: Gus Edwards (concussion) and Justice Hill (toe). Defense’s will look to hit Lamar harder when he’s running out of the pocket. They can’t afford him getting injured. They still seem to be at their best running with Lamar Jackson and others and still uncomfortable forcing downfield passing. The Ravens face a difficult matchup against the Browns Sunday and come in as the underdog. 9. Seattle (2-1) Seattle scored 37 points and racked up 425 yards of offense Sunday despite going just 3-of-13 on third down (including a kneel-down in the closing seconds). The Seahawks haven't finished better than 16th in third-down conversion rate since 2015, a long-standing issue that has continued so far this season. The Seahawks' defense is having more issues vs. the pass everywhere on the field but the offensive formula of running balanced by efficient passing from Geno Smith is working well again.Seattle is playing Monday against the NY Giants and opened as a 1 point dog. 10. Detroit (2-1) Detroit’s offense is off to yet another strong start, scoring 20 or more points in 12 straight games dating back to last season. However, the ground attack could be more efficient. The Lions' defense made a statement in Week 1 at Kansas City before crashing vs. Seattle in Week 2. Aidan Hutchinson and friends rose to the occasion in ripping the one-dimensional Falcons and making it a simpler outing for Jared Goff. I believe that the passionate play of Hutchinson lifts every player on the team.

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