AL Wild Card Starting Pitching Possibilities
The MLB wild card matchups are set with three packed days of action Tuesday to Thursday in four best of three series without travel this week. Here is a look at the American League pairings and the starting pitching considerations this week. AL WILD CARD Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers Tarik Skubal – With the Tigers confirming a postseason spot on Saturday, Skubal didn’t start on the final day of the regular season and the likely back-to-back AL Cy Young winner will be lined up to start Game 1 in the wild card round, pitching against Cleveland for a third straight start. Cleveland won both of those games, but Detroit did win two games in Skubal starts against the Guardians earlier in the season. Last season provided Skubal’s first playoff innings and two of his three starts in the postseason were at Progressive Field for the ALDS in Cleveland, winning Game 2 with a scoreless outing, but taking the loss in the Game 5 elimination contest with five runs allowed. Skubal has a 2.37 career ERA in the postseason as he also had a scoreless road start in Houston in last season’s playoff run. Skubal has a 2.41 career ERA over seven starts at Progressive Field in the regular season. Jack Flaherty – Winning a World Series last season with the Dodgers after being traded by the Tigers, Flaherty returned to Detroit for the 2025 season. It was a tough regular season for Flaherty with 15 losses and a 4.64 ERA despite good strikeout numbers. His struggles mostly came on the road, but he did close the season with some positive momentum pitching well in September despite Detroit surrendering the AL Central lead. Flaherty has not been a good postseason pitcher in his career with a 5.36 ERA in 47 innings, though he did pitch well as the Game 1 starter of the World Series last season, and the Dodgers still won the World Series in Game 5 even after he allowed four runs while getting four outs in a poor starting effort. Flaherty had a strong Game 1 start in the NLCS as well, but he allowed eight runs in a start later in the series. Flaherty had decent numbers earlier in his career postseason appearances with St. Louis and Baltimore and last season his two bad outings were both of his road starts. In his career Flaherty is 0-2 at Progressive Field in four starts but with a 2.31 ERA. Casey Mize – The #1 pick in the 2018 MLB draft, Mize hasn’t been an instant success at the MLB level, but he did post a solid season with 149 innings in 2025, going 14-6 in decisions but with an average 3.87 ERA and an 8.4 K/9. Mize pitched extremely well early in the season and struggled in July and August before putting together a solid run of five starts in September. He has pitched well vs. Cleveland this season with a 2.08 ERA though Detroit lost two of those three starts. Mize did not pitch in the postseason last year as it will be his playoff debut if he is called upon in the wild card series. Other options – While it would be a gamble, Troy Melton, a 24-year-old rookie with fewer than 46 MLB innings to his name has pitched well with a 2.76 ERA. He has made only four starts and only one since early August as it is more likely that Melton would be reserved as a possible long relief option. Keider Montero filled useful innings for the Tigers making 12 starts and eight relief appearances this season. He wasn’t as successful as Melton overall this season but had a hot hand in September with a 3.12 ERA in just over 17 innings with a 9.9 K/9. Cleveland Guardians Tanner Bibee – With a 12-11 record and a 4.24 ERA, Bibee doesn’t have the numbers of a division champion ace, but Bibee seems likely to get the Game 1 nod. Despite an average season line, Bibee was excellent down the stretch in Cleveland’s incredible late season run, posting a 1.30 ERA in September. In last year’s run to the ALCS, Bibee was a solid option, making four starts for a 3.45 ERA with Cleveland winning both of his starts against the Tigers, while his season home splits were far stronger with a 3.22 ERA at Progressive Field in the regular season. Gavin Williams – After starting Game 3 of the ALCS last season, Williams will likely be called on for another big start in this wild card series. He allowed three runs while getting seven outs in what was his only postseason start in Cleveland’s playoff run in 2024. Williams had a fine 2025 season with a 3.06 ERA in 31 starts including a 9.3 K/9 including back-to-back solid outings for wins vs. the Tigers in a playoff-like atmosphere in his final two regular season starts. He finished the 2025 season with a 3.00 ERA in his home innings. Other options – Depending on how the start of the series goes, a bullpen game is very possible for Cleveland. Rookie Parker Messick delivered a 2.72 ERA in seven starts since making his debut in August. He obviously has never pitched in the playoffs, but the left-hander seems likely to be utilized at some point in this series. Being left-handed will also give Logan Allen consideration for a postseason spot though he was skipped in the rotation down the stretch with only three September starts before pitching in the regular season finale Sunday, after Cleveland had clinched a postseason spot. Allen did not pitch in the postseason last year for Cleveland. 2nd year left-hander Joey Cantillo has a 3.21 ERA and a 10.2 K/9 this season. Cantillo was a reliever in last year’s playoff run with a 3.86 ERA in three appearances. Slade Cecconi pitched two scoreless innings for Arizona in the NLCS in 2023. Making 23 starts this season, Cecconi had a 4.30 with modest numbers overall but he did have two scoreless outings in September of seven and eight innings respectively. If the Guardians decide to prefer a right-hander to open a game, Cecconi would be the best right-handed starting option behind Bibee and Williams. AL WILD CARD Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox Garrett Crochet – After making demands and an exit out of Chicago last season, Crochet backed up the talk with a tremendous season for Boston and the left-hander is likely to finish second in the AL Cy Young voting. Crochet did pitch in the postseason as a reliever for the White Sox in 2020 and 2021, combining to throw three innings without allowing a run. Crochet had mixed results vs. the Yankees this season with a 3.29 ERA, but Boston ultimately went 4-0 in his starts vs. New York, and he is the obvious Game 1 starter choice for the Red Sox. Brayan Bello – Despite the lowest K/9 of his career Bello had a 3.35 ERA in nearly 167 innings of work for Boston, making 28 starts. Bello has pitched for Boston since 2022, but this is the first Red Sox postseason appearance since 2021. Two of his three starts vs. New York this season were scoreless seven-inning outings including an August start at Yankee Stadium. Bello has preferable road splits this season with a 3.06 ERA away from Fenway Park, though his September ERA of 5.40 was his worst monthly split of the season. Lucas Giolito – Another former White Sox pitcher would likely be the third Boston starter in this series. Giolito got his career back on track this season winning 10 games with a 3.41 ERA for Boston. He was terrific in August and has a 3.47 ERA since the All-Star Break to shake off a tough start to the season. Giolito made two postseason starts in his time with the White Sox, pitching a gem to beat Oakland in 2020 but taking the loss against Houston in a 2021 start, leaving him with a 3.97 ERA in his postseason innings. In two starts vs. the Yankees this season Giolito had a 3.48 ERA, with Boston winning his road start but losing his home start. New York Yankees Max Fried – Commanding a big offseason contract, Fried delivered exactly what the Yankees needed this season, filling in for the injured Gerritt Cole as a true #1 option on the mound. The Yankees are 22-10 in Fried starts this season including winning all five of his September starts. New York lost two of Fried’s three starts vs. Boston this season, however, even though he allowed just four runs in over 18 innings of work. Fried had a memorable scoreless Game 6 start to win the 2021 World Series with Atlanta but his postseason track record has been far less reliable than his regular season numbers. Fried had a 5.10 ERA in 67 postseason innings and he made just one start in each of the past three postseasons for the Braves, allowing 14 runs in just over nine innings of work combined. Carlos Rodon – The Yankees will lead with left-handed starters in the first two games of this series. Rodon has a career postseason ERA of 6.64 with the bulk of his playoff innings in last season’s run to the World Series. Rodon did have a quality start to beat Cleveland in the ALDS, but he ultimately allowed 11 runs in fewer than 18 innings of work in the 2024 postseason. Rodon was also ineffective in two playoff appearances for the White Sox in 2020 and 2021. With an 18-8 record and a 3.09 ERA, Rodon had a second straight strong season pitching for the Yankees, but he didn’t pitch well in two of his three starts vs. Boston, with New York losing two of those three games while he allowed 11 runs in just over 15 innings of work vs. the Red Sox. Cam Schlittler – As a 24-year-old rookie, Schlittler has not pitched in the postseason before. He finished with a 2.96 ERA in 14 starts with a 10.4 K/9 this season. His walk rate is a bit elevated, but he threw well in both home and road innings and allowed one or no runs in seven of his final nine starts of the regular season. Boston has also never faced Schlittler, which may give him the edge for a potential Game 3 start. Luis Gil – After missing most of the season Gil made 11 late season starts with solid results including a 3.32 ERA. His K/9 was only 6.5 however while walks were a serious problem with a 5.2 BB/9. Gil had an elevated walk rate last season as well, but he had a 10.2 K/9 last season to make up for it. Gil did pitch well down the stretch minus one bad start in Minnesota and he allowed just one earned run in 11 innings vs. the Red Sox. Gil pitched eight innings for the Yankees in the postseason last year and he had a 6.75 ERA, but New York did win both games, including his Game 4 start in the World Series facing elimination.
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