by Al McMordie
Sunday, Dec 28, 2025We are in the final two weeks of the 2025 NFL season, and this is a great time of the year to play on home underdogs. And we'll turn to a very good angle for our NFL System of the Week which does just that.
One of the things that many bettors do not do well toward the end of the season is play on teams performing poorly, especially when installed as an underdog. But the teams that are sputtering toward the finish line often offer great value. This particular system is focused on home underdogs.
What we want to do is play on any team off back to back losses, if it was a home underdog in the final two weeks of the regular season, and its opponent did NOT own a winning record.
Since 1980, our NFL System has clocked in at 36-17-2 ATS, 67.9%.
This week, we have two home pups which look to loudly bark:
Miami Dolphins +4.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Las Vegas Raiders +3 over New York Giants
And even though there's nothing wrong with 67.9%, we can improve our win percentage by bringing our opponent in off a point spread loss. With that extra parameter applied, our angle zooms to 15-2 ATS, 88.2%, including 11-0 ATS since 2005!
Consider playing on the Dolphins and Raiders this week.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
One of the things that many bettors do not do well toward the end of the season is play on teams performing poorly, especially when installed as an underdog. But the teams that are sputtering toward the finish line often offer great value. This particular system is focused on home underdogs.
What we want to do is play on any team off back to back losses, if it was a home underdog in the final two weeks of the regular season, and its opponent did NOT own a winning record.
Since 1980, our NFL System has clocked in at 36-17-2 ATS, 67.9%.
This week, we have two home pups which look to loudly bark:
Miami Dolphins +4.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Las Vegas Raiders +3 over New York Giants
And even though there's nothing wrong with 67.9%, we can improve our win percentage by bringing our opponent in off a point spread loss. With that extra parameter applied, our angle zooms to 15-2 ATS, 88.2%, including 11-0 ATS since 2005!
Consider playing on the Dolphins and Raiders this week.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
