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Ness Notes: Friday, Oct 30

by Larry Ness

Friday, Oct 30, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."CFB: I covered the Wisconsin COVID-19 situation in Thursday Notes but an update is that the Wisconsin football program now has 16 active cases of COVID-19. The positive tests recently received include those of head coach Paul Chryst and QB Graham Mertz. Mertz is out three weeks and Chryst is required to isolate for 10 days and will be able to return to the team in person on Nov 7 at the earliest. That, coincidentally, is the date Wisconsin is scheduled to play Purdue. Is Wisconsin's season in the balance? If that news wasn't bad enough, I woke up this morning to the news that Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence has also tested positive. Here's what we know.Lawrence will miss Saturday's home game against Boston College, as the Tigers go for their 39th straight regular season win, which would tie Miami for the second-longest streak in college football history ('Canes run came from 2000-03). The longest regular season winning streak is 45 in a row by Oklahoma from 1953-57. Lawrence is said to have mild symptoms but at this time, his status for Clemson's Nov 7th game at South Bend with the 4th-ranked Fighting Irish remains in question. Lawrence will be required to isolate for 10 days from the onset of symptoms. That begs the question, when did his 10-day clock start? The best-case scenario for Lawrence's return is if he began experiencing symptoms on Tuesday and that began his 10-day isolation clock, which would potentially allow him to play on Nov 7. However, this also requires the player to show no symptoms, defined as no respiratory issues or fever, without the aid of fever-reducing medication. Lawrence will also have to pass a battery of cardiac tests to ensure he isn't showing symptoms of myocarditis. If he clears all those hurdles, it's possible he could play against the Irish, albeit with no practice under his belt beforehand. As I opined Thursday, fingers crossed.NFL Week 8 opened with Atlanta winning 25-17 at Carolina on Thursday night. The Falcons fired Dan Quinn after a 23-16 home loss in Week 5 to the Panthers but have now won TWO of three under interim head coach Raheem Morris. Atlanta bounced back from last Sunday's emotionally-draining one-point loss to Detroit, when the Lions drove 75 yards in 1:04 and scored the winning TD (and extra point) with no time remaining. As for Carolina, the Panthers have now lost THREE in a row, after winning THREE in a row. Carolina has played each of its last SIX games without All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey.Sunday's NFL "Game of the Week" is the 6-0 Steelers playing the 5-1 Ravens in Baltimore at 1:00 ET. The current Baltimore Ravens are "the original Cleveland Browns" and rivalry has never let up with Browns/Ravens moving from Cleveland to Baltimore. It has produced vicious hits, close games, dramatic finishes and now a historic matchup of head coaches. The Steelers hired Mike Tomlin in 2007 and he's led Pittsburgh to a 139-74-1 (.652) record in the regular season while capturing six AFC North titles and one Super Bowl championship. John Harbaugh was hired by the Ravens the following season (2008) and owns a 123-75 (.621) regular season record winning four AFC North Titles and one Super Bowl title. Sunday's meeting will be the 25th matchup between Tomlin and Harbaugh, which according to the Elias Sports Bureau, the duo will become the first pair of head coaches in the Super Bowl era to face off 25 times in the regular season (Harbaugh holds a 13-11 edge over Tomlin). For you history buffs, there are only two head-coaching matchups in NFL history that eclipse Tomlin-Harbaugh. George Halas (Bears) and Curly Lambeau (Packers) met 48 times plus Lambeau and Steve Owen (Giants) coached against each other 28 times.  I mentioned above something about "close games" and two-thirds of the 25 games have been decided by FOUR points or less, including four overtime games. The Ravens are favored by 3 1/2-points and the over/under is 46 1/2.The Pittsburgh/Baltimore matchup is not the only game in which the winner will take over first-place with a victory. In Week 8's SNF game (8:20 ET on NBC) the 2-5 Cowboys (0-7 ATS) will be in Philadelphia to take on the 2-4-1 Eagles, with the winner walking away as the NFC East's division leader. Now you CAN'T make that up! Philly is favored by 9 1/2-points and the over/under is 43. There are two more division showdowns with important implications. The SF 49ers are not just defending NFC West champs but they are also defending NFC champs. The Niners opened 2-3 but have won two in a row (24-16 at home against the Rams and 33-6 at the Pats) to get back to 4-3. However, the 49ers still find themselves in last-place in the NFL's toughest division, behind the 5-2 Cards and Rams plus the 5-1 Seahawks. Seattle welcomes the 49ers to CenturyLink Field off the team's first loss of 2020, a 37-34 OT loss last Sunday night in Arizona. Seattle is favored by three points and the over/under is 54. Then we have the 2-4 Patriots heading to Buffalo to take on the 5-2 Bills. The Patriots have won the AFC East in each of the last 11 years and in 17 of the last 19 seasons. A win by the Bills would move Buffalo to 6-2, with New England falling to 2-5. Could Buffalo win its first AFC East title since 1995 in 2020? The Bills are favored by four points and the over/under is 41.Week 8 also features an important non-division NFC matchup, as the 4-2 Saints are in Chicago to take on the 5-2 Bears. The Saints currently trail 5-2 Tampa Bay in the NFC South and with the Bucs playing the 1-6 NY Giants on MNF, the last thing New Orleans needs is to lose at Chicago, while Tampa Bay wins as expected in New Jersey. The Bears trail the 5-1 Packers in the NFC North and with Green Bay hosting the 1-5 Vikings, the Bears can ill afford a loss AND what is expected to be a Packers win. The Saints are favored by 4 1/2-points and the over/under is 43 1/2. I'll close with the NFL's lone winless team, the 0-7 (1-6 ATS) Jets, who can't possibly be expected to win at the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. KC welcomes the Jets to Arrowhead Stadium as a 19 1/2-point favorite (over/under is 49).Good luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL and NCAA Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Oct 30, 2020

The Friday sports card features three games in college football and an afternoon match in the English Premier League. Florida International was to play Marshall in college football as well but called the game off given their lack of scholarship players available to play after a COVID outbreak. The Friday night game on ESPN features a battle of two Big Ten opponents looking to rebound from opening game losses last week.Minnesota hosted Michigan for the Saturday night prime-time game on ABC but got dominated in a 49-24 loss. The Golden Gophers’ defense only returned five starters from last year while losing five of their top six tacklers from that team. Minnesota was tenth in the nation by allowing 306.6 yards-per-game, yet allowed the Wolverines to generate 478 yards of offense while averaging 8.8 yards-per-play behind Joe Milton's first career start at quarterback. The Golden Gophers allowed 35 points in the first half to the Wolverines. Maryland was embarrassed last week in Evanston, where they lost to Northwestern by a 43-3 score. They surrendered 537 yards to a Wildcats’ offense was 123rd in the nation last year. Northwestern ran the ball 53 times for 325 yards against the Terrapins. Maryland has five starters on defense back that was 109th by allowing 449.2 yards-per-game with 177.9 of those yards coming on the ground.Maryland was only 3-9 last season, but they have bowl aspirations in Locksley’s second year with the program with twelve starters back. The Terrapins lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession while losing 36 starts from the first-string to injuries last season. Minnesota has 13 starters back from Fleck’s 11-2 team defeated Auburn in the Outback Bowl by a 31-24 score. BetOnline lists the Golden Gophers as a 19.5-point road favorite with the total set at 61. The ESPN broadcast begins at 7:30 PM ET. At 9:30 PM ET, East Carolina travels to Tulsa to play the Golden Hurricane. The Pirates are 1-3 this season after losing at home to Navy by a 27-23 score back on October 17th. Tulsa raised their record to a 2-1 mark with their 42-13 victory at South Florida last Saturday. The Golden Hurricane are 17-point favorites with an over/under of 61. ESPN2 has the broadcast.At 9:45 PM ET, Wyoming hosts Hawai’i. The Cowboys lost their opening game of the season last week with a 37-34 upset loss in overtime at Nevada. The Rainbow Warriors began their season last Saturday with a 34-19 upset victory at Fresno State, where they were 2.5-point underdogs. Wyoming is a 1-point favorite with a total of 59. FS1 broadcasts the game.Match week 7 of the English Premier League begins on Friday with Crystal Palace traveling to Wolverhampton. The Wolves are -1 goal line favorites with a total of 2. The NBC Sports Network broadcasts the game at 4 PM ET.

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NCAA Friday Night Football: Minnesota/Maryland Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Oct 30, 2020

The Friday night game on ESPN features a battle of two Big Ten opponents looking to rebound from opening game losses last week.Minnesota hosted Michigan for the Saturday night prime-time game on ABC but got dominated in a 49-24 loss. The Golden Gophers’ defense only returned five starters from last year while losing five of their top six tacklers from that team. Minnesota was tenth in the nation by allowing 306.6 yards-per-game, yet allowed the Wolverines to generate 478 yards of offense while averaging 8.8 yards-per-play behind Joe Milton's first career start at quarterback. The Golden Gophers allowed 35 points in the first half to the Wolverines. Minnesota only gained 326 yards on offense despite being on the field for over 35 minutes in that game. Junior quarterback Tanner Morgan completed just 18 of 31 passes for 197 yards with a touchdown and an interception. After ranking fourth in the nation last season by averaging 10.2 yards per pass attempt, Morgan averaged only 6.6 yards per attempt against the Wolverines. Junior Rashod Bateman remains a dangerous weapon for Morgan, but he needs help in replacing their lead receiver Tyler Johnson from last year. The Minnesota offensive line was supposed to be a strength for this team, with four starters returning. It was a surprise when right guard Curtis Dunlap and right tackle Daniel Faalele could not play because of injuries. Head coach P.J. Fleck reshuffled his line while inserting two backups into the starting lineup. Yet Morgan still got sacked five times. If there was a bright spot for the Golden Gophers, it was the play of junior running back Mohamed Ibrahim, who rushed for 140 yards with two touchdowns against the stout Wolverines’ defense. With Dunlap and Faalele listed as questionable for this game, Minnesota will likely lean on Ibrahim to carry the offense. The Golden Gophers are also dealing with injuries with the kicker and punter, which impacted Fleck’s fourth-down decisions last week. Maryland was embarrassed last week in Evanston, where they lost to Northwestern by a 43-3 score. They surrendered 537 yards to a Wildcats’ offense was 123rd in the nation last year. Northwestern ran the ball 53 times for 325 yards against the Terrapins. Maryland has five starters on defense back that was 109th by allowing 449.2 yards-per-game with 177.9 of those yards coming on the ground.The Terrapins gained only 207 yards in that game while being on the field for under 23 minutes. They averaged only 4.1 yards-per-play. Second-year head coach Mike Locksley tapped sophomore Taulia Tagovailoa as his starting quarterback. The younger brother of Tua transferred to College Park from Alabama, where Locksley was the offensive coordinator two years ago. Tagovailoa’s career with Maryland did not start as planned, with him passing for 94 yards while completing 14 of his 25 passes. He also threw three interceptions. The Terrapins were last in the Big Ten last year in time of possession, so keeping their defense off the field may continue to be a problem for Locksley’s team.Maryland was only 3-9 last season, but they have bowl aspirations in Locksley’s second year with the program with twelve starters back. The Terrapins lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession while losing 36 starts from the first-string to injuries last season. Minnesota has 13 starters back from Fleck’s 11-2 team defeated Auburn in the Outback Bowl by a 31-24 score. BetOnline lists the Golden Gophers as a 19.5-point road favorite with the total set at 61. The ESPN broadcast begins at 7:30 PM ET. 

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NCAA Saturday Night Football: Ohio State/Penn State Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Oct 30, 2020

The Saturday night game on ABC features two nationally-ranked teams from the Big Ten.Ohio State began their season last Saturday by defeating Nebraska at home by a 52-17 score. Junior quarterback Josh Fields led the way by completing 20 of 21 passes for 276 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. The Buckeyes’ offense racked up 491 yards against the Cornhuskers. Ryan Day’s team is a trendy pick to win the national championship this season in his second year as the head coach of the program. He returned ten starters from last year’s team that finished 13-1 with their loss being in the national semifinals to Clemson by a 29-23 score. However, there were some areas of concern despite the 35-point win over Nebraska. This game was still relatively close going into the second half, with the Buckeyes went into halftime with just a 24-14 lead. Fields faced constant pressure from the Cornhuskers’ pass rush. The junior Heisman Trophy candidate also led his team in rushing with 54 yards. Not only are there questions about the Ohio State offensive line after that effort, but Day may not have anyone on the roster who can come close to replacing the productivity of J.K. Dobbins at running back last season. Nebraska gained 370 yards against the Buckeyes defense, which was well above the nation-leading 259.7 yards-per-game they held their opponents to last year. Ohio State lost all four starters from their defensive line last year, including superstar defensive end Chase Young who was the second player taken in the NFL draft. Those issues pale in comparison to what Penn State head coach James Franklin has had to address this week. The Nittany Lions come off a 36-35 upset loss in overtime at Indiana as a 7-point favorite. Penn State had the opportunity to ice the game late, but they scored a touchdown that raised their lead to a 28-20 score rather than settling for a first down that would have allowed them to run out the clock. The Hoosiers were able to force overtime when they then scored a touchdown on their final drive and converted the two-point conversion. After the Nittany Lions scored a touchdown on the first possession in OT, Indiana responded with a touchdown of their own before going for a game-winning 2-point conversion. Instant replay then confirmed the call on the field that Hoosiers’ QB Michael Penix crossed the goal-line with the football before his end zone dive landed the football out of bounds. Penn State lost that game despite holding the Hoosiers to just 211 yards of offense while outgaining them by 277 net yards. The Nittany Lions held on to the football for over 40 minutes of that game. Junior quarterback Sean Clifford completed 24 of his 35 passes for 238 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Clifford also led the team in rushing with 119 yards on 17 carries. Depth at running back has become an issue for Franklin despite this being an expected area of strength for the Penn State offense. Junior Journey Brown is out indefinitely, and sophomore Noah Cain is out the season with injuries leaving the running back depth chart thin after sophomore Devyn Ford. Franklin returned 13 starters from the team last year that finished 11-2 with a 53-39 victory over Memphis in the Cotton Bowl. The Nittany Lions lost the meeting between these two teams last November in Columbus by a 28-17 score, as a 20.5-point underdog. Despite the loss last week, Penn State is ranked 18th in this week’s AP poll.BetOnline lists Ohio State as an 11.5-point road favorite with the total set at 64. The ABC broadcast begins at 7:30 PM ET.

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How to Bet on Sports: Sports Betting 101

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Oct 30, 2020

How to bet on sports:  sports betting 101 Sports have been a great part of society for thousands of years.  The most famous sports grow each year, and even new sports are invented.  Every year, there are hundreds of thousands of sporting events throughout the world.  This ranges from a small soccer match between local clubs, to professional leagues like the NFL and the NBA. With the evolution of sports, the betting industry has grown along with it.  As of today, the sports betting market, itself, is a multi-billion dollar industry which is more popular than ever.  New sportsbooks, betting sites and bookmakers have continuously popped up as the legal climate has become more welcoming.  Sports bettors now have more possibilities than ever before.  But, for new bettors, it can all feel a bit overwhelming. In this guide, we want to provide you with some hands-on betting tips.  After reading through the following page, you'll know what sports betting is all about and how you can create a winning sports betting strategy.  Above all that, we will explain to you how to select a sportsbook (our current top-rated sportsbook is BetAnySports), and show you where you can start wagering today!How to get started with sports bettingTo start betting on any sport, you have to get familiar with the basics.  The more you know about a particular sport, the greater your chances of making the right prediction.  For the basics of sports betting, we take sports that consist of two teams competing against each other.  That comes down to all major sports in the United States like the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL.  There are a couple of bets called straight wagers, which involve betting on the outcome of a single match.Moneyline The moneyline bet is the easiest to understand. You predict which team or player wins the game -- simple as that.  With the moneyline, the sportsbook decides which team is favored and which team is the underdog. They do so with the minus (-) sign, which represents the favorite, and the plus (+) sign, which represents the underdog. Point spreadThe point spread bet is another popular bet.  With this bet, you're betting on a team to cover the spread.  The spread is the difference in points between the two teams.  The bookmakers predict which team is more likely to cover the spread, as you can see in the odds. The point spread requires a little example to explain fully.  Let's take a matchup between the Knicks and the Lakers: New York Knicks +5 Los Angeles Lakers -5 In this example, the Lakers are the favorite.  To cover the spread, they need to win the game by more than 5 points.  The New York Knicks, on the other hand, would cover if they either win, or do not lose by 5 or more points. Over/underThe over/under (also known as a totals bet) is a bet on the total number of points scored in the game by both teams, combined.  The bookies come up with a number of points, and you have to predict whether the final score (combined) will be over or under that amount.  This is particularly popular with NBA, NFL and MLB bettors. Other types of betsThe above is just the beginning when it comes to sports betting.  When you're starting as a bettor, it's nice to start playing around with some of the straight wagers.  However, after you’ve gained more experience, you can dive into the following bet types:Prop bets:  With prop bets (also known as proposition bets), you are wagering on an event within a sporting event.  An example could be which player or team scores first in the match.  This bet type can also take place during the game in the form of live betting, which has grown massively in popularity with the maturity of the internet. Parlay bets:  When you're up for a little more risk, you can try your luck with parlay bets.  Also known as an accumulator bet, with a parlay, you're combining multiple wagers into one bet.  Each individual bet has to be successful to secure a payout.  The chance of success, of course, gets smaller, as the number of elements in the parlay increases. Teasers:  The teaser is a variation of the parlay bet.  With a parlay, you can't change anything about the odds given by the bookies for each individual match.  With a teaser, you can.  For example, 2-team, 6-point NFL teasers are extremely popular.  In this bet, a gambler gets to add six points to each of the two teams he selects.  Thus, each individual element of the teaser has a better chance to win.  The payout odds, of course, reflect the fact that the odds of winning are increased. Futures bet:  This is literally betting on an event far in the future.  You could predict the winner of the upcoming Super Bowl or Premier League before the season starts.  And the odds can be incredible here, as it's tough to predict.  Recall the 1999 St. Louis Rams, who were 300-1 going into their NFL championship season.  Or Leicester City, which was 5000-1 before its stunning, title-winning Premier League season in 2015-16.Hedge betting:  When you've placed a significant wager, it might be smart to secure at least a little payout.  Sometimes, you can do so by hedging your bet, but only if an opportunity presents itself where you can’t lose.  This only would be possible if the odds have moved since you placed your original wager, and the team you selected now has an increased chance to win.  This means placing a bet on the other side of your original wager.  Then, regardless of how the game ends, and depending on how you structured your hedge bet, your entire stake for your initial wager would not be at risk. The above wagers are available for most major sports and fantasy sports. However, horse racing is different.  The types of bets are different, and the structure of the sport as well.  Thus, we've written a separate betting guide to educate you on horse racing. How to read betting oddsThe essence of knowing how to bet is understanding the odds for each bet.  Across the world, there are three different types of display odds:  American odds, fractional odds, and decimal odds.  Since we're focusing on the United States, we'll focus on the American odds, also known as moneyline odds.The moneyline odds are relatively simple.  In general, all bets come down to the same structure.  The bookmaker picks the favorite and the underdog.  The favorite holds the minus sign (-), while the underdog holds the plus sign (+).  Let's take the two NBA teams we used earlier: New York Knicks +210 Los Angeles Lakers -250 These betting lines are based on a moneyline wager.  You can see that the Lakers are the favorite, while the Knicks are the underdog.  To calculate our payout, you should know that the moneyline odds assume you're wagering $100.  With that in mind, we can calculate our payout for the example above: You bet $100 on the underdog, the Knicks, and they win.  You profit $210 over and above the initial stake of $100 -- your total payout is $310. You bet $100 on the favorite, the Lakers, and they win. You profit $40 over and above your initial stake of $100.  (If you wanted to profit $100 when betting on the Lakers, you need to wager $250.) This gives you an idea of how the moneyline odds work.  It's not more complicated than that.  Now, there are lots of odds calculators that you can use when you're in doubt, so don't hesitate to consult an additional source!How to choose your online sportsbookYou might be wondering where to start placing your bets after taking in all of the above.  You know what kind of bets there are and how the odds work, but where do you bet?  Those who have been to Las Vegas will probably have an answer to this straightaway.  There are many brick-and-mortar Las Vegas sportsbooks that will happily take your bets since it's legal in Nevada.  Across the country, many brick-and-mortar sportsbooks will also take your bets, but there's also a more convenient way.When you don't feel like traveling all the time when you want to place a simple bet, you can try betting sites.  These are nothing more than online sportsbooks.  However, online betting sites usually offer way more than merely a site where you place bets.  To illustrate this, we want to share a little checklist we use when analyzing an online betting site: Does the betting site welcome you with a nice sign-up bonus? Does the online sportsbook’s website have a modern user interface? Is the betting site able to handle your wagering limits? Does the betting site offer convenient banking methods? Does the betting site offer competitive odds on straight bets, parlays, and teasers? The competition is strong when it comes to online sportsbooks, so you should take advantage.  For example, if you want great sign-up and reload bonuses, then join BetNow Sportsbook.  But if it’s reduced juice (e.g., -105 odds on football and basketball games, rather than -110), or 10% bonus payouts on winnings at major horse tracks, then join BetAnySports.  And if you’re looking for the best parlay and teaser odds, then BetAnySports is the ideal choice for that, as well.   It's also never wrong to have accounts at multiple books so you can shop around for the best lines, bonuses, or promotions. How to create a winning sports betting strategyYou might notice that figuring out how to place bets is not the hardest part.  After doing a little research, you'll probably find your way through the betting market.  The point where things might get complicated is when you start wagering for the long term -- when you want to do more than merely place a bet for entertainment.  For those who desire a sustainable career as a sports bettor, we want to give you some tips.Keep your eyes on your moneyWhen you first start, you have to decide how much money you want to make available for your betting habits.  Our best advice is to never risk more money than you're able to lose.  You don't want to risk your savings or your kids' college fund on your new passion for sports betting.  Start small, keep your eyes on your bankroll, and slowly build up your betting account.  The more you accumulate, the more risk you can take. Keep your eyes on the calendarWhen it comes to all of the major sports, they lead up to major betting events.  This ranges from the Super Bowl, to March Madness, to the World Cup in soccer.  Whatever it is, view it as a great opportunity to make money.  Usually, novice bettors find these events a great time to place a wager just for fun.  Sportsbooks know there's a significant influx of novice bettors at those times so they will take advantage of this.  And that's when odds start to shift, and the professional bettors with a plan can step in for easy profits.Keep your eyes on the statisticsWhen you're about to place a bet, always ask yourself:  did you do all the research you could to wager your money thoughtfully?  You have to be mindful of all the statistics about each matchup before putting any money on the line.  Read up about past performances, the players, the teams, the weather conditions, travel time, or whatever it might be.  The more you research, the better!  And if you don’t have the time, our handicapping experts here are happy to help.With all that being said, we want to wish you a lot of fun.  Go ahead and think for yourself which sport suits you the best.  Think about the first type of wager you want to place and dive right in.  Pick a sportsbook which matches your needs and go for it!  You'll learn new stuff along the way and figure out all there is to sports betting.  We're always here to advise you too, so don't be a stranger!

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NFL: 3 Teams That Aren't As Good As Their Record

by Power Sports

Thursday, Oct 29, 2020

Anyone who regularly follows my picks knows that I am a big believer in YTD scoring differential being a reliable predictor of future outcomes. With that in mind, I thought I’d take a look at three NFL teams that aren’t as good as their record says they are. 1. Bears (WL record: 5-2, Point Differential -2) - It should be common sense that a team that’s been outscored on the season probably should not have a 5-2 record. Anyone who watched the Bears play on Monday Night Football against the Rams probably doesn’t think they should be 5-2 either. This is a team that’s been extremely fortunate in the early going. They have won two games in which they trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. They somehow beat Tampa Bay despite being outgained 5.3 to 4.1 on a yards per play basis. The offense isn’t good as it’s been held under 20 points in half of its games, two of those coming since the move to Nick Foles. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears ended up missing the playoffs. 2. Bills (WL record: 5-2, Point Differential: -4) - I’m not nearly as high on this Bills team as some others seem to be. Once again, having a negative point differential seems to justify my position. The Bills snapped a two-game losing streak on Sunday by beating the Jets 18-10. But they did not cover the large spread. It’s also worth mentioning they’ve beaten the winless Jets twice. They have no other wins by more than seven points and were dominated in games against two of the AFC’s best teams (KC, Tennessee). The offense has been held to an average of 17 PPG the L3 weeks, a stretch which has seen them go 0-3 ATS. A win this Sunday against New England would put the Bills at 6-2 and firmly in control of the AFC East. But this is an average, not great team. 3. Cleveland (WL record: 5-2, Point Differential -21) - This is the biggest “offender” on our list. The Browns were dominated in losses to the Ravens and Steelers, but are 5-0 otherwise. Those losses to the Ravens and Steelers were by a combined 63 points. Three of the five wins have come at the expense of Cincinnati (both close) and Washington (were +5 in turnovers). The upcoming schedule is favorable and the addition of a 7th playoff spot this year may very well end up being what snaps Cleveland’s 18-year playoff drought. But this isn’t a very good team. Note their point differential is roughly the same as the 1-6 Falcons!

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MAC Conference West Division Football Preview for 2020

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Oct 29, 2020

MAC Conference West Division Football Preview for 2020:Heading into the first week of November 2020 only two conferences have yet to get underway in this unusually scheduled 2020 football season that has been impacted by the pandemic. One of those two conferences is the MAC. Below I give a quick hitter report on each of the six teams in the Mid-American Conference West Division:West:Ball State – The Cardinals have a lot of talent but their last 3 losses last season came by a combined 8 points. They struggle to win close games and one of the concerns coming into this season is they appear thin at defensive line and this is a Ball State team which had a rough season on defense last year. Central Michigan – A lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball but will a solid quarterback be able to step up? There is certainly a ton of talent at the other skill positions on offense. Might be good to look at overs in the Chippewas games as the defense lost a lot of starters from last year. Eastern Michigan – This team lost a ton of talent from last year’s team. The players the Eagles lost were key players so this may seem hard to believe but an Eastern Michigan team that won 6 games last season and went to a bowl is truly in rebuild mode this season. I expect them to finish near or at the very bottom of the MAC West. Northern Illinois – This team is likely to finish near the bottom of the division this season. The Huskies are coming off back to back years where they simply have suffered a lot of key losses from their roster. This is the season it catches up with them. Toledo – Mediocre the last two seasons but the Rockets should be soaring again this season. At least in terms of being the top team in the West Division. Toledo had a great ground attack on offense last season but it was the defense that let this team down. Now this season the Rockets return a lot of veteran experience on defense and that should pay off with a much stronger season on that side of the ball. Western Michigan – The Broncos are a tough team to call because they do appear to be solid in the trenches as both lines look strong. But, on offense, they lost key pieces at quarterback and running back and that could hold this team back. If Western Michigan finds some answers there, this is a team that could challenge the Rockets for the top spot in the West. However, if they struggle in those areas this team could easily drop down to as low as 4th too. In a short 6-game MAC season this is something to watch closely in the early going. 

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MAC Conference East Division Football Preview for 2020

by Scott Rickenbach

Thursday, Oct 29, 2020

MAC Conference East Division Football Preview for 2020:Heading into the first week of November 2020 only two conferences have yet to get underway in this unusually scheduled 2020 football season that has been impacted by the pandemic. One of those two conferences is the MAC. Below I give a quick hitter report on each of the six teams in the Mid-American Conference East Division:East:Akron – Head coach Tom Arth came here with a 49-21 record. He went 0-12 with the Zips in his first season. This football program is still in rebuild mode and in for another long season.Bowling Green – Head coach Scot Loeffler was a good hire even though he and the Falcons struggled in his first year here. Respectable ground game last season and pass defense was respectable as well. Still issues though and lost about half their starters from last year.Buffalo – The Bulls look like the class of the MAC this season and return a lot experience from last year’s team. They were one of the best rushing teams in the nation last year. On the other side of the ball, a very strong defense returns a lot of talent. This team should prove to be tops in the MAC. Kent State – Head coach Sean Lewis now in his 3rd season with the program and the Golden Flashes are starting to turn things around. However, this team lacks depth. That could be particularly problematic in a season impacted by covid-19. So far this College Football season we have seen that be a factor in other conferences that have already begun play and injuries are an issue too for teams with less depth. They finish in the middle of the pack in the MAC East most likely. Miami (Ohio) – The Redhawks are the only team likely to challenge Buffalo in the East. They won the MAC Championship Game last season over Central Michigan. They return a ton of talent from last season’s team but are a little thin on defense and, keep in mind, their overall production on offense was not overly impressive last season. Also, special teams units took a major hit in terms of players lost from last season. Still a good team but I don’t think they’ll be able to top the Bulls this season.Ohio University – Another team whose special teams took a hit in the off-season. Also, though this teams returns a fair number of players from last season, they did lose a lot of top players including 7 all-conference selections. That kind of talent being gone is why I feel strongly that the Bobcats will be battling with the Golden Flashes in the “middle of the pack” in the MAC East this season. 

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NFL System of the Week - Monday Night Football

by Tom Stryker

Thursday, Oct 29, 2020

MONDAY NIGHT NFL ROAD WARRIORAnytime you see a Monday night home dog, the knee-jerk reaction is to jump all over it.  From 1980 to 2000, teams in this simple situation owned a profitable 66-39 ATS record for 62.8 percent.  In case you haven’t been paying attention, that “old school” situation has hit the skids.  Since 2001, NFL Monday night home pups are on a dismal 47-62 ATS run for 43.1 percent and it’s time for investors to think differently. When I approached the Team Stryker Database this week,  I decided I wanted to flip things around.  Instead of looking at these home dogs, I decided to analyze how effective road favorites were under the Monday night lights.  At first, there wasn’t much.  Then I stumbled across the following money-making situation.  Check out this beauty: Since 1980, PLAY ON any Monday night road favorite priced at -3 or more provided their opponent arrives off a straight up loss and owns a team won/loss percentage of .334 or less.40 Year ATS Record = 40-17-1 ATS for 70.1 percent This Week’s Play = TAMPA BAYThis is a basic set of parameters that really turned a nice profit.  It’s simply a good road team favored over a lesser opponent that takes the field without confidence off a straight up loss. There is one way to make this primetime system even better.  If our “play on” guest owns a pointspread won/loss percentage less than .630 – so they’re not a covering machine – this Monday Night NFL Road Warrior situation tightens up to a lucrative 30-7 ATS including a jaw-dropping 21-1 ATS if their opponent arrives off a competitive loss of 13 points or less.  The Buccaneers fit both of those money-making parameters. Forget about the Monday night home dog.  It’s not clicking any more.  Instead, lay the lumber with Tom Brady and the Bucs on Monday night and ride this new awesome system home.

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Ness Notes: Thursday, Oct 29

by Larry Ness

Thursday, Oct 29, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary." NFL Week 8: Arizona, Houston, Jacksonville and Washington are on their bye weeks. 5-2 Arizona is "right in" the postseason hunt in the NFC West, tied with the Rams as both teams are chasing 5-1 Seattle. Ironically, 2-5 Washington is also "right in" the postseason hunt because it plays in the sad-sack NFC East where 2-4-1 Philadelphia resides in first-place. As for Houston and Jacksonville (both 1-6), it's "wait until next year." The Thursday Night schedule in 2020 has been underwhelming, to say the least. Week 8's matchup features the 1-6 Falcons playing at the 3-4 Panthers. The Falcons came one play away from improving to 2-0 under interim coach Raheem Morris last Sunday, who said the team needs to recover emotionally from the latest result, a one-point loss to the Lions. Detroit drove 75 yards in 1:04 and scored the winning touchdown (and extra point) with no time remaining. Carolina's defense let the team down regularly last Sunday in a 27-24 loss at New Orleans, allowing the Saints to convert on 12 of 14 third-down situations. These teams met in Week 5 with the Panthers winning 23-16 in Atlanta. That outcome pushed the Falcons to an 0-5 record, prompting the firing of head coach Dan Quinn. Carolina's win over Atlanta was the team's THIRD straight but the Panthers have lost two straight, since. The Panthers were hoping All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey would be able to play in this one, after more than a month's absence caused by a high ankle sprain. McCaffrey hasn't played since the second week of the season but the Panthers announced Tuesday that McCaffrey has been designated to return from injured reserve. However, he was not activated from IR on Wednesday. The Panthers faced a 4 p.m. ET deadline Thursday to call him up in time to face the Falcons but just as I was ready to post this article, Carolina announced that McCaffrey will NOT play. Tonight's game kicks off a 8:15 ET (FOX/NFL Network) with Carolina favored by two points (over/under is 51 1/2).NCAAF: The new CFB week opens with a pair of games on Thursday night. South Alabama is at Georgia Southern in a SBC contest and will air on ESPN at 7:30 ET (Ga Southern is favored by four points). The MWC features Colorado St at Fresno St in the other matchup. There are three Friday games, highlighted by a Big Ten contest featuring Minnesota at Maryland on ESPN at 7:30 ET (Gophers are favored by 20 points). The other two are East Carolina at Tulsa and Hawaii at Wyoming. No. 19 Marshall was scheduled to play at FIU on Friday but the game was postponed due to COVID-19 issues. For FIU, the Panthers have had more games postponed (four) in 2020 than they have played (three, going 0-3). As for 5-0 Marshall, the Thundering Herd have now lost THREE games to postponements. Saturday's North Texas at UTEP game has also been postponed but the biggest virus-related news comes in the fact that No. 9 Wisconsin's game at Nebraska was canceled (NOT postponed) due to COVID-19 breakouts to Wisconsin players and coaches. The Big Ten just returned to play last weekend and Wisconsin led things off with a 45-7 romp over Illinois on Oct 23. However, as has been well reported, the Big Ten's late start date has allowed NO 'wiggle room' in its schedule of EIGHT games in eight weeks. The Wisconsin and Nebraska game can't be "made up" and it's likely that Wisconsin's Nov 7 home game with Purdue will also be canceled. It's a stark reminder that the college football season is hardly being played on 'firm ground.' Fingers crossed as we look forward. Saturday CFB: There is only ONE game this Saturday in which ranked teams square off and that's No. 3 Ohio State at No. 18 Penn St. The then-No. 5 Buckeyes made 'short work' of Nebraska last Saturday, rolling to a 52-17 win but then-No. 8 Penn St's 36-35 OT loss at Indiana was to say the least, a real shocker. It was Indiana's first win over a top-10 team since 1987! Ohio St is favored by 12 points in Happy Valley and I will note that in meetings between ranked teams this season, the higher ranked team has gone 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS (the lone SU loser was then-No. 3 Florida losing on Oct 10 at then-No. 21 A&M). However, the dynamic of ranked teams against unranked opponents has seen markedly different results. Ranked teams did win 10 of 12 such matchups last weekend but were able to go just a modest 6-6 ATS, although that was a MAJOR improvement over the numbers Y-T-D. Entering Saturday, ranked teams are 54-18 (.750) SU when taking on an unranked opponent so far this season but remain a 'money-burning' 26-45-1 (.366) ATS. Will this trend continue throughout the 2020 season? I noted in last Thursday's Notes that following a theory called "regression to the mean," we are overdue to see the ATS record swing back in favor of the ranked teams. However, we are still waiting. Is this the week?Only FIVE ranked teams are NOT in action this weekend, including No. 9 Wisconsin and No. 19 Marshall (see above). No. 12 Miami-Fl is idle, while No. 14 Oregon and No. 21 USC are Pac 12 schools which have yet to begin their respective seasons. Both open their SIX-game schedules next Saturday with Oregon at home vs Stanford and USC at home vs Arizona St. No. 3 Ohio St is playing at No. 18 Penn St and No. 9 Wisconsin had its game at Nebraska canceled but the other remaining eight top-10 teams are in action, all playing unranked opponents. No. 1 Clemson can extend its regular-season winning streak to 39 games with a home win over Boston College (Tigers are favored by 31 points). No. 2 Alabama hosts Miss St, which has lost THREE in a row (averaging just 10.0 PPG), after upsetting defending champion LSU 44-34 in its season-opener. The Tide are also favored by 31 points. No. 4 Notre Dame owns the nation's longest-active winning streak (11) and will be at Ga Tech, where the Irish are favored by 20 points. No. 5 Georgia is coming off a bye week and has to be motivated to bounce back from its 41-24 loss at Alabama on Oct 17. The Bulldogs are favored by 15 1/2-points. No. 6 Oklahoma St is the lone unbeaten team in the Big 12 and will host Texas in Stillwater, where the Cowboys are favored by 3 1/2-points. No. 7 Cincinnati hosts Memphis and is looking for "double-revenge" from back-to-back losses at Memphis in 2019's regular season final and then the following week in the AAC championship game. The Bearcats are favored by 6 1/2-points. Texas A&M hosts Arkansas (Aggies are favored by 12 1/2-points) and No. 10 Florida hosts Missouri in its first game since losing 41-38 at Texas A&M back on Oct 10. The Gators are favored by  12 1/2-points.10 more ranked teams are in action on Saturday vs unranked opponents, including 6-0 and 11th-ranked BYU at home vs Western Kentucky, which is nation-worst 0-6 ATS. The Cougars are favored by 28 1/2-points. No. 20 Coastal Carolina continues it's 'magical' season, when it plays at Georgia St (Chanticleers are favored by three points).Good luck...Larry

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NFL Stock Rising and Falling: Week 8

by Sean Murphy

Thursday, Oct 29, 2020

We're seeing the NFL pretty well right now off a 4-1 Sunday and Monday card last week. As we approach the midway point of the season it's a great time to take stock of where a number of teams stand entering the first Sunday in November.Stock RisingBaltimore RavensThe Ravens find themselves in a huge statement spot this Sunday as they host the undefeated division-rival Steelers. Baltimore's bandwagon seemed to clear entirely following that ugly loss to the Chiefs on Monday Night Football last month. Since then, the Ravens have gone a perfect 3-0, but they've beaten the likes of Washington, Cincinnati and Philadelphia - not exactly a who's who of the league's best teams. I do think we see Baltimore's best this Sunday but will it be enough against the streaking Steelers?Los Angeles ChargersI'm of the mind that the Chargers are far better than their 2-4 record indicates. They followed up a season-opening victory with four straight losses, but three of those setbacks came against three of the league's best teams in Kansas City, Tampa Bay and New Orleans. Last week we saw the Bolts get back on track with a 39-29 win over the Jaguars. QB Justin Herbert appears to be getting more comfortable running the offense with each passing week and now he has a chance to really get the team rolling with the next four games coming against the Broncos, Raiders, Dolphins and Jets.New Orleans SaintsAll of the Drew Brees critics have gone silent in recent weeks as the veteran quarterback has guided the Saints to three straight victories, throwing for well over 800 yards and five touchdown passes in the process. New Orleans' schedule admittedly starts to toughen up in November as it travels to face Chicago and Tampa Bay in the next two games. With that being said, it does look like Sean Payton's squad has regained its identity and appears well-positioned to challenge atop the NFC South.Stock FallingChicago BearsWe cashed a ticket fading the Bears on Monday Night Football as they not surprisingly proved to be a fraudulent 5-1 team in an ugly loss to the Rams. Chicago's offense remains unimaginative and the question remains whether it's Nick Foles or Mitchell Trubisky that should be running it. A return home may not be enough to cure their woes, noting that the Bears have scored a grand total of just 48 points in three games at Soldier Field this season.Cleveland BrownsIt may seem odd to find the Browns in our 'stock falling' category this week. After all they're 5-2 on the season and coming off a thrilling win in Cincinnati last Sunday. There are plenty of concerns. First of all, Cleveland has been shredded for 62 points over its last two games. In fact, the Browns have allowed at least 30 points in five of seven contests this season. Now their offense is hamstrung as well with WR Odell Beckham Jr. done for the season and QB Baker Mayfield showing plenty of inconsistency. Look for them to go even more run-heavy than usual moving forward.New England PatriotsWe'll put the Patriots in this category again this week as they try to pick up the pieces following their worst performance of the season in a blowout home loss to the 49ers last week. I'm not sure any team misses having its fans in the stadium than the Pats. But that's obviously no excuse for the team's performance on the field over the last few games. Perhaps head coach Bill Bellichick has never faced a challenge like the one he is up against this year. We'll see how the Pats respond this Sunday in Buffalo. 

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NCAA Thursday Night Football: Georgia Southern/South Alabama Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Oct 29, 2020

The Thursday night game on ESPN features another clash of Sun Belt Conference rivals this week.South Alabama has won two games in a row after their 38-14 win at home over UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 14-point favorite. The victory raised the Jaguars record to 3-2 with a 2-0 mark in conference play, which puts them alone in first place in the Sun Belt Conference West Division. This group is most likely the best team head coach Steve Campbell has had at South Alabama in his three years with the program. Fifteen starters returned from last year’s 2-10 team that endured a handful of frustrating losses. Campbell bolstered the depth of his roster with eight junior college transfers. The Jaguars have a win at Southern Miss in non-conference play, with their two losses being to Tulane and UAB.South Alabama averages 26.8 points per game along with 412.0 yards per game under quarterback Desmond Trotter. The sophomore is not 100%, with a shoulder injury that kept him out of one game. He is completing 66.7% of his passes for 744 yards with six touchdown passes and two interceptions. He is averaging 10.8 yards per attempt, which are fifth-best in the nation. Former junior college All-American Chance Loveritch has played in all five of the Jaguars games, where he has passed for 607 yards while completing 56.4% of his passes. Wide receiver Kawaan Baker has 27 receptions for 443 yards, which are fourth-most in the Sun Belt Conference. Jalen Tolbert has 26 catches for 486 yards, with his 18.7 yards per catch average ranking second in the conference. Running back Carlos Davis has added 443 rushing yards on 97 carries. Georgia Southern saw their record drop to a 3-2 mark after their 28-14 loss at Coastal Carolina last Saturday. The defeat dropped the Eagles to a 1-2 record in conference play, which ties them with Georgia State for the basement in the East Division. Both of Georgia Southern’s losses were against UL-Lafayette and the Chanticleers, who were nationally-ranked at the time of the game. The Eagles returned 14 starters from the team last year that was 7-6 after a 23-16 loss to Liberty in their bowl game. Quarterback Shai Werts is a four-year starting quarterback who has rushed has rushed for 333 yards with two touchdowns in leading the option rushing attack of Georgia Southern. The Eagles rank 13th in the nation by averaging 248.8 rushing yards per game with their 5.46 yards-per-carry average, also ranking 13th. J.D. King has 490 rushing yards on 87 carries, and Wesley Kennedy III has rushed the ball 31 times for 206 yards. Kennedy’s 6.7 yards-per-carry average is third-best in the conference. Warts has 3273 passing yards in his career, but he is completing only 52.6% of his passes this season. The Eagles are holding their opponents to 20.8 points per game along with 361.2 yards per game. Yet keep in mind that in Georgia Southern’s shutout victory over a UMass team that might be the worst in the FBS, they held the Mountaineers to just 191 total yards and only 3.6 yards per play. Georgia Southern is a 4-point favorite at BetAnySports with the total set at 51. The ESPN broadcast begins at 7:30 PM ET.

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