NFL Midway MVP Thoughts

by ASA, Inc.

Coming off one of the most bizarre weeks in the NFL we find ourselves about halfway through the 2021 season. Tom Brady and Josh Allen are dead even atop most of the MVP odds. Brady fresh off a bye week and Allen trying to figure out how Urban Meyer’s Jags held his offense to 6 points. If either regress (similar to Russell Wilson in 2020) or have injury trouble, there is value in a few other names.
 
Josh Allen                            +325
Tom Brady                          +325
Kyler Murray                      +700
Matthew Stafford            +750
Lamar Jackson                   +1000
Aaron Rodgers                  +1200
Dak Prescott                      +1200
 
Buy: Mathew Stafford had one of his worst games of the season in a surprising loss to the Titans. Two “Carson Wentz” like picks left a bad impression for viewers on Sunday night, yet Stafford still has 23 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions. This puts him on pace to finish with 43 TDs and 11 INTs. Those numbers would be good enough to win previous MVP’s depending on what year you look back at. Brady in 2017 threw for 32 TDs and 8 INTs. Lamar in 2019 threw for 36 and 6. If Stafford can keep the interceptions to a minimum, the Rams will be in prime contention come playoff time. Big touchdown numbers and a high seed are a great formula for MVP.
 
Buy: Dak Prescott is in a very similar situation in a loaded NFC. Dak missed a game and already has his bye week behind him putting him on pace for 41 TDs and 12 INTs. We are going to chalk up the Bronco’s loss to the week 9 craziness that happened all around the league. It may all come down to who wins out in the NFC with Brady, Murray, Stafford, Rodgers, and Prescott all very much alive to claim the top seed.
 
Sell: Kyler Murray is banged up and struggled mightily last year when not fully healthy, while Rodgers may be in the media doghouse for the year, maybe life. Lamar currently has 13 TDs with 7 picks so it is hard to see him making a push no matter how much he runs for. A small dip in production, or a few games out due to injury open the door wide open for Stafford and Prescott. 



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