Articles

2021 Major League Baseball: American League Preview

by Ben Burns

Thursday, Feb 25, 2021

The American League has a 66-50 all-time edge over the National League, in terms of World Series titles. However, the "senior circuit" has now taken two in a row. Let's take an early look at some of the teams which will try and right the ship for the A.L. this season. While the American League East appears to be New York's to lose, the other two divisions are up for grabs. The White Sox and Twins are essentially co-favorites to win the Central while the Astros and A's are expected to receive a challenge from the Angels, in the West. Fans of the Rangers, Orioles and Royals: you're likely in for a long season. Don't completely give up yet though. Opening Day brings new hope to every clubhouse and there's almost always at least one team which defies preseason expectations. Though I'm not currently recommending any futures wagers, I do find it helpful to know what is expected from each team, after factoring in the usual flurry of offseason activity. I've listed the odds to win each division (courtesy of Pinnacle) below. Spring training games don't begin until Sunday but the players have already reported to camp. The actual season starts April 1st. Notes From The First Few Days Of Camp- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reportedly lost 42 pounds this offseason. - Shohei Ohtani threw 97 mph in a live batting practice session. - Reigning AL MVP Jose Abreu has tested positive for COVID-19. AL EASTYankees -198Blue Jays +390Rays +449Red Sox +2209Orioles +4276AL Central White Sox -109Twins +123Indians +845Tigers +3244Royals +4035AL West Astros +116A's +166Angels +359Mariners +2374Rangers +3920

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAA Basketball Odds and Previews - 02/25/2021

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Feb 25, 2021

The Thursday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, and the NHL. The college basketball card tips off at noon ET with Miami (OH) visiting Western Michigan as a 5-point road favorite with the total et at 135 (all odds from BetOnline).The nationally-televised college basketball card begins at 7 PM. Michigan hosts Iowa in a battle of Big Ten teams ranked in the top-ten nationally. The Wolverines are third in the Associated Press poll with a 16-1 record after winning their fifth straight game in a 92-87 victory at Ohio State as a 2-point favorite on Sunday. The AP ranks the Hawkeyes ninth with a 17-6 record with their fourth straight win against Penn State, 74-68, as a 10-point favorite on Sunday. Michigan is a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 155.5. Houston plays at home against Western Kentucky on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. The Cougars are ranked 11th in the nation with an 18-3 record. They won their third game in their last four on Sunday with a 90-52 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite. The Hilltoppers, 15-4, won their sixth straight game back on February 13th with an 89-66 win against Rice as a 9.5-point favorite. Houston is an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 136. Arizona State is at home against Washington on FS1 at 7 PM ET. The Sun Devils, 8-11, defeated the Huskies by a 97-64 score on Tuesday as a 9.5-point favorite. Washington fell to 5-18 with the loss. Arizona State is a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 155. Gonzaga hosts Santa Clara on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The number one-ranked Bulldogs are a 31-point favorite with a total of 155.Ohio State visits Michigan State on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Buckeyes are ranked fourth in the nation with an 18-5 record. Their seven-game winning streak end on Sunday in a 92-87 loss at home to Michigan as a 2-point underdog. The Spartans, 12-9, upset Illinois by an 81-72 score as an 8.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Ohio State is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 145.5.Colorado is at home against USC on ESPN2 at 9 PM ET. The Buffaloes fell to 17-7 with a 61-57 upset loss at Oregon State as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Trojans are ranked 19th in the nation with a 19-4 record. They won their eighth of nine games on Monday with their 72-58 win against Oregon as a 3.5-point favorite. Colorado is a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 136.5.At 9 PM ET, San Diego State hosts Boise State on FS1. The 22nd ranked Aztecs are a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 138. BYU is at home against San Francisco on the CBS Sports Network as a 10-point favorite with the total set at 141.5. Stanford plays at home against Oregon on ESPNU as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. At 11 PM ET, Saint Mary’s is at home against Pacific on ESPN2 as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 124. Arizona hosts Washington State on FS1 as a 9-point favorite, with the total at 133. Six games are on the NBA slate. A doubleheader on TNT begins at 7 PM ET with Dallas playing at Philadelphia. The Mavericks won their sixth of their last seven with a 110-107 upset victory against Boston as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday. The 76ers won their third game in four with a 109-102 win at Toronto as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The TNT nightcap at 9:30 PM ET has New Orleans playing at Milwaukee. The Pelicans upset Boston on Sunday, 120-115, as a 2-point underdog. The Bucks won their third straight on Tuesday with a 139-112 victory against Minnesota.Eleven games are on the NHL docket for Thursday. Seven games begin the card at 7 PM ET. The slate concludes at 10 PM ET with Edmonton playing at Vancouver as a -138 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. None of the games are on national television.

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2021 Major League Baseball: National League Preview

by Ben Burns

Wednesday, Feb 24, 2021

While some are still shovelling driveways, baseball is right around the corner. Spring training gets underway February 28th. The "real thing" begins April 1st. So, what will baseball look like in 2021? Though they hope to play a full 162 games, doubleheaders will still be two seven-inning games. Each offense will get a runner on second to start each extra inning. However, there will be no universal designated hitter. What about the fans?Everyone hopes for there to be fans in the stands. When and where fans return to the ballparks, however, remains to be seen.Before the exhibition season starts, I find it helpful to see what the oddsmakers are projecting for each team. Looking at the division odds (courtesy of Pinnacle) gives an idea of which clubs are expected to compete. I've provided the National League below and will check back soon with the American League. The NL Central appears to be up for grabs with any team, except Pittsburgh, capable of winning. The Dodgers are heavy favorites in the West, the Padres their only possible competition. You'll see that the NL East is expected to be a 2-team race between the Mets and the Braves. Fans of the Nationals and the Phillies probably feel differently. Bryce Harper, reportedly healthy and excited about his team, surely does.  Harper had this to say of Philadelphia's offseason: "We needed to be able to spend money, because we don't have the prospects to actually trade and do that. We were kind of in a predicament of, 'What can we do right now, but how can we prolong this for the next four or five years and not just one year?' So being able to kind to get a new GM, get a new president of baseball operations and kind of go from there. I mean, when Dombrowski came in, I was really excited, because I saw what he did in Boston, what he did in Detroit. I was sitting there thinking to myself, 'Man, well, yeah, we can possibly spend money. But do we have the prospects to kind of get the guys that we need to?' And I mean, I trusted so much in what Dombrowski was going to do, what Sam Fuld is going to do for us. I know how smart Sam is. I know how smart Dombrowski is. So I knew they were going to be able to do what they did. But I didn't know they were going to be able to do what they did like this. I was really pumped about it. And I was, quite frankly, a little shocked that they were able to do what they did."NL East Braves +150Mets +150Nats +600Phillies +850Marlins +1500NL CentralCardinals +153Reds +278Brewers +341Cubs +384Pirates +4087NL WestDodgers -258Padres +201Giants +3038Diamondbacks +5063Rockies +5063

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NCAA Basketball: Alabama/Arkansas Preview, Odds, Prediction 02/24

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Feb 24, 2021

The college basketball doubleheader on ESPN2 for Wednesday concludes with an SEC showdown between two nationally-ranked teams at 9 PM ET.Alabama has the opportunity to claim a share of the SEC regular title for the first time since 2002 with a victory tonight. The Crimson Tide won their third straight game with an 82-78 victory against Vanderbilt on Saturday. Sophomore Jaden Shackleford scored a season-high 27 points to improve his team-leading 14.5 points-per-game average. Nate Oats has four starters back from his first year with the program, where they finished 16-15. He fortified this core by bringing several talented players, including former five-star recruit from Villanova, Jahvon Quinerly, and Jordan Bruner, a graduate transfer from Yale. Oats also recruited three four-star freshmen to the program to give this team depth. Alabama is scoring 80.9 points-per-game executing Oats’ “pace-and-space” scheme that plays fast and shoots plenty of 3-pointers. The Crimson Tide is 2nd in the nation in possessions per game, and their average possession length of 14.2 seconds is third quickest. They average 30 shots from behind the arc, with these 3-pointers representing 47.6% of their shots from the field, 16th in the nation. Their 36.0% shooting mark from downtown is 71st nationally, with the team leading the SEC by making 39.1% of their 3-points in conference play. The Tide also rebounds 30.2% of their missed shots, 102nd in the country. Their offense ranks 24th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency by kenpom for the season. The Alabama defense is second nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They force turnovers in 20.7% of their opponent’s possessions, 80th nationally. They also hold their opponents to a 29.2% shooting mark from 3-point land, 13th nationally. Oats’ team is vulnerable to opponents committed to crashing the offensive glass. The Crimson Tide allow their opponents to rebound 29.0% of their missed shots, 218th in the nation. For the first time since 2002, the Alabama basketball team ranks in the top-ten with their current sixth spot in the Associated Press poll. The Crimson Tide is 18-5 overall with a 13-1 mark in conference play with high-profile wins against Tennessee, Florida, LSU twice, and these Razorbacks. Their five losses are against Stanford, Clemson, Western Kentucky, Oklahoma, and their lone loss in the SEC is against Missouri.Arkansas is nationally-ranked for the first time since January of 2018, with their current standing at 20th in the AP poll. The Razorbacks won their fourth game in a row with a 75-64 win against Florida on February 16th. Davante Davis scored 18 points, with Moses Moody and Jalen Tate adding 14 points apiece. Arkansas had their next game with Texas A&M postponed given the COVID outbreak in the Aggies’ program.Seven Razorbacks are scoring at least 7.2 points-per-game. Moody leads the way with a 16.2 points-per-game scoring average, with the freshman making 37.1% of his 3-pointers. Connor Vanover is an intriguing contributor. The 7’3 250-lb redshirt sophomore transfer from California is scoring 7.2 points-per-game with 5.5 rebounds-per-game and 2.0 blocks-per-game. Eric Musselman’s team is 17-5 with a 9-4 record in conference play which is good for second place in the SEC. Their highest-profile victories are against Florida, Kentucky, and Missouri. Their four losses in the SEC are against Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, and the Tigers. They also lost to Oklahoma State last month in the Big 12/SEC Challenge. Arkansas is 32nd nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. The Razorbacks are also 23rd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They rank 20th nationally with a block rate of 13.4%. They are also second in the SEC with a defensive rebounding rate of 72.3%.Alabama won the first meeting, 90-59, as a 3.5-point favorite on January 6th. The Crimson Tide made 15 of their 36 shots from 3-point land, and Arkansas scored only 19 points in the first half. Arkansas gets this rematch in Fayetteville, where they are 13-1 on their home court with an average winning margin of 20.6 points-per-game. BetAnySports lists the Razorbacks as a 2-point favorite, with the total set at 158.5.Computer Prediction:  Arkansas 82 Alabama 78

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, UEFA Champions League and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Feb 24, 2021

The Wednesday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, the NHL, and the UEFA Champions League. The college basketball card tips off at noon ET with Holy Cross visiting Boston University. The nationally-televised schedule begins at 5 PM ET, with North Carolina Central hosting North Carolina AT&T on ESPNU at 5 PM ET. The Eagles, 4-5, play for the first time since February 9th when they were upset at Florida A&M, 60-47, as a 3-point favorite. The Aggies improved to 9-10 on Sunday with their 70-63 upset win at Florida A&M as a 5-point favorite. North Carolina Central is a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 139.5 (all odds from BetOnline).North Carolina plays at home against Marquette on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. The Tar Heels improved to 14-7 with their 99-54 victory against Louisville as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Golden Eagles, 10-12, snapped a three-game losing streak last Wednesday with their 73-57 upset loss at Butler as a 1.5-point favorite. North Carolina is an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 144. Seton Hall visits Butler on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Pirates, 13-9, come off an 81-75 upset loss at Georgetown as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Bulldogs fell to 7-13 with a loss to Xavier, 63-51, as a 12.5-point underdog on Sunday. Seton Hall is a 7.5-point road favorite with the total at 131.South Florida is at home against Temple on ESPNU at 7 PM ET. The Bulls improved to 8-8 with their 83-76 win at Temple as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Owls have lost six in a row to drop to 4-10. South Florida is a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5.Arkansas hosts Alabama on ESPN2 at 9 PM ET. The Razorbacks are 20th in the Associated Press poll with a 17-5 record after winning their fourth straight game last Tuesday against Florida, 75-64, as a 4-point favorite. The Crimson Tide, 18-5, is ranked sixth by the AP after winning three in a row against Vanderbilt, 82-78, as a 12.5-point favorite on Saturday. Arkansas is a 1-point favorite with the total at 155.5.Creighton plays at home against DePaul on the CBS Sports Network at 9 PM ET. The Bluejays are ranked 13th by the AP with a 16-5 record. They have won six of seven after their 86-70 upset win against Villanova as a 2-point underdog back on February 13th. The Blue Demons snapped a five-game losing streak to improve to 4-10 with an 88-83 upset win at St. John’s as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday. Creighton is a 15-point favorite with an over/under of 141.Xavier visits Providence on FS1 at 9 PM ET. The Musketeers raised their record to 12-4 with a 63-51 win against Butler as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Friars fell to 11-11 with a 73-61 loss at UConn as a 6.5-point underdog last Tuesday. Xavier is a 1.5-point road favorite, with the total at 141.Tulsa is at home against Cincinnati on ESPNU at 9 PM ET. The Golden Hurricane improved to 10-9 with their 72-66 victory against Temple as a 5-point favorite last Tuesday. The Bearcats, 7-8, ended a four-game winning streak with their 90-52 loss at Houston as a 12.5-point underdog on Sunday. Tulsa is a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 131.5.UNLV hosts Fresno State on FS1 at 11 PM ET. The Rebels improved to 10-11 with a 67-64 win at San Jose State as a 14-point favorite on Sunday. The Bulldogs dropped to 9-9 with a 75-57 loss to San Diego State as a 14-point underdog on Saturday. UNLV is a 7-point favorite with the total at 131.Nine games are on the NBA docket. A doubleheader on ESPN begins at 7:30 PM ET with Golden State playing at Indiana. The Warriors ended a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with a 114-106 win at New York as a 4-point favorite. The Pacers have won three of four with their 134-128 win at Minnesota as a 5.5-point favorite. The nightcap on ESPN has the Los Angeles Lakers visiting Utah. The Lakers have been upset in three straight games after losing at home to Washington as a 6.5-point favorite, 127-124, on Monday. The Jazz won their tenth game in their last eleven with a 132-110 victory against Charlotte as a 12.5-point favorite on Monday. Seven games are on the NHL schedule. A doubleheader on the NBC Sports Network starts at 7 PM ET, with Philadelphia playing at home against the New York Rangers. The Flyers have lost four of five after their 7-3 loss to Boston in Lake Tahoe on Sunday. The Rangers have won two in a row with their 4-1 win at Washington on Saturday. Philadelphia is a -116 money line favorite with the total at 5.5.St. Louis hosts the Los Angeles Kings in the second game on the NBC Sports Network at 9:30 PM ET. The Blues have lost three of four after their 3-0 setback to the Kings on Monday. The Kings are on a five-game winning streak. St. Louis is a -157 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The first leg of the UEFA Champions League concludes with two matches at 3 PM ET. Manchester City visits Borussia Monchengladbach as a -1.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 3.25. Atalanta plays at home against Real Madrid as a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.25. Both matches are available on CBS All-Access.

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NCAA Tuesday Night Basketball: Kansas/Texas Preview

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Feb 23, 2021

The college basketball doubleheader on ESPN for Tuesday concludes with a Big 12 battle between two nationally-ranked teams. Kansas won their fifth in a row with their 67-61 win against Texas Tech as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. David McCormack scored 17 points and pulled down 10 rebounds. The 6’10 junior is scoring 13.0 points-per-game while adding 6.1 rebounds-per-game. Chai Agbaji poured in 14 points and grabbed another 13 rebounds. The junior leads the team with a 13.7 points-per-game scoring average. Jalen Wilson contributed 11 points. The freshman is scoring 12.7 points-per-game and leads the team with an 8.0 rebounds-per-game mark.The Jayhawks’ improved play stems from a change in defensive tactics by Bill Self. After losing five of seven games, Self instructing his players to be more aggressive in their ball screen coverage. Kansas has held their last five opponents to just 0.81 points-per-possession, which would be the stingiest in the nation if extended to the entire season. Kansas can struggle to score baskets. Their 48.9% shooting percentage inside the arc this season is 201st in the nation. The kenpom adjusted offensive efficiency numbers still rank the Jayhawks 54th in the nation. They pull down 31.7% of their misses, 66th in the country. They rank 12th in adjusted defensive efficiency, with their interior defense leading the way. Kansas leads the Big 12 by holding their opponents to just 44.5% shooting inside the arc.The Jayhawks have climbed to 17th in the nation in the Associated Press poll with a 17-7 record. Their 11-5 conference record puts them in third place in the rugged Big 12. Kansas has quality victories against Creighton, West Virginia, Texas Tech (twice), Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. Their five conference losses are against Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and these Longhorns. The Jayhawks have also lost to Gonzaga and Tennessee in non-conference action.Texas lost their fourth game in their last six contests on Saturday in an 84-82 upset loss at home to West Virginia as a 4.5-point favorite. The loss is troubling for Shaka Smart for several reasons. The Longhorns blew a 19-point second-half lead. Courtney Ramey and Andrew Jones got into a verbal altercation on the sidelines in the final 20 minutes of that game, with the team getting outscored, 34-18, after the dustup. This loss was the fourth loss in their last six games at home in Austin. Ramey did score a career-high 28 points in the loss on the strength of hitting seven of his eight shots from 3-point land. The junior is second on the team with a 14.1 points-per-game scoring average. Jones leads the team with a 15.6 points-per-game clip. The Longhorns returned twelve players, including all five starters from last year. Smart added a likely one-and-done freshman in Greg Brown, who is contributing 10.6 points-per-game and 7.6 rebounds-per-game. Texas has six players scoring at least 8.1 points-per-game.Texas ranks 12th in the AP poll with a 13-6 record. They have several impressive victories against Indiana and North Carolina en route to winning the Maui Invitational while adding wins against Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and these Jayhawks. Their six losses are against Villanova, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma State, and the Mountaineers on Saturday. Their 7-5 record in the Big 12 puts them in fifth place.The Longhorns had their games with Oklahoma and Iowa State last week canceled because of the winter storm in Texas. Smart’s team has also had several games lost this season due to the COVID, with both the players and the coaching staff missing time.Smart’s job was in jeopardy last season. The team hit a low point in an 81-52 loss at Iowa State. Yet Smart rallied his team to win five of their last six games to finish with a 19-12 record in a season interrupted to COVID. Texas was on the bubble to make the NCAA Tournament. Smart's team has won 18 of their last 25 games since that drubbing to the Cyclones. Texas ranks 19th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. On defense, the Longhorns are 33rd in adjusted defensive efficiency fueled by their half-court defense as they hold their opponents to a 45.9% effective field goal percentage, 21st nationally.Kansas suffered the worst loss at home in Self’s tenure with the program in the first meeting between these two teams, which Texas won, 84-59, as a 4.5-point underdog. Smart described this rematch as a “watershed moment” given his team's recent struggles. BookMaker lists Texas as a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 137.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL, EPL, UEFA Champions League, NBA and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Feb 23, 2021

The Tuesday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, the NHL, the English Premier League, and the UEFA Champions League.The nationally-televised college basketball card begins at 6 PM ET with Saint Louis visiting VCU on the CBS Sports Network. The Billikens, 11-4, had their four-game winning streak end on Friday with their 76-53 upset loss at Dayton as a 6-point favorite. The Rams, 16-5, were upset by George Mason on Saturday as a 10-point favorite to snap their six-game winning streak. Saint Louis is a 3-point road favorite with the total set at 135.5 (all odds from BetOnline).Illinois travels to Michigan State on FS1 at 7 PM ET. The Fighting Illini are ranked fifth in the nation by the Associated Press with a 16-5 record. They won their seventh in a row with their 74-63 win at Minnesota as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Spartans improved to 11-8 with their 78-71 upset win at Indiana as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday. Illinois is a 7-point road favorite with an over/under of 145.5.West Virginia plays at TCU on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. The Mountaineers are ranked 10th by the AP with a 15-6 record. They have won four of their last five games after upsetting Texas on the road on Saturday, 84-82, as a 4.5-point underdog. The Horned Frogs fell to 11-9 on Saturday after getting upset at home to Kansas State, 62-54, as a 7-point favorite. West Virginia is an 8.5-point road favorite, with the total at 146.5.Auburn hosts Florida on ESPN at 7 PM ET. The Tigers dropped to 11-12 with a 104-80 loss at LSU as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Gators improved to 11-6 after defeating Georgia, 70-63, as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. Auburn is a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 154.5.Villanova plays at home against St. John’s on the CBS Sports Network at 8 PM ET. The Wildcats raised their record to 14-3 on Saturday with a 68-60 win against UConn as a 7-point favorite. The Red Storm fell to 14-9 with their 88-83 upset loss to DePaul as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday. Villanova is an 11.5-point favorite with the total at 154.Oklahoma visits Kansas State on ESPN 2 at 9 PM ET. The Sooners are ranked seventh by the AP with a 14-5 record. They won their third in a row with their 66-56 win at Iowa State as a 12-point favorite on Saturday. The Wildcats improved to 6-18 with their 62-54 upset win at TCU on Saturday. Oklahoma is a 10-point road favorite with an over/under of 131.Texas plays at home against Kansas on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Longhorns fell to 13-6 with their 84-82 upset loss to West Virginia as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Jayhawks improved to 17-7 by defeating Texas Tech, 67-61, as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Texas is a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 140.UConn visits Georgetown on FS1 at 9 PM ET. The Huskies dropped to 10-6 on Saturday with their 68-60 loss at Villanova as a 7-point underdog. The Hoyas raised their record to 7-10 with their 81-75 upset victory against Seton Hall as a 4.5-point underdog on Saturday. UConn is a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 138.The NBA slate has nine games on tap. A doubleheader on TNT tips off at 7:35 PM ET with Boston visiting Dallas. The Celtics have lost four of six after their 120-115 upset loss at New Orleans as a 2-point favorite. The Mavericks have won five of six with their 102-92 victory against Memphis as a 4.5-point favorite on Monday. The nightcap on TNT has Portland playing at Denver at 10 PM ET. The Trail Blazers lost at Phoenix on Monday, 132-100, as a 6.5-point underdog. The Nuggets lost their third game in their last four with a 123-115 upset loss at Atlanta as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday.Six games are on the NHL schedule. Washington hosts Pittsburgh on the NBC Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Capitals have won three of four with their 4-3 win against New Jersey on Sunday. The Penguins won their fourth in five games after their 3-2 win against the New York Islanders on Saturday. Washington is a -115 money line favorite with the total at 6.Matchweek 25 concludes on Tuesday with Leeds United playing at home against Southampton at 1 PM ET as a -0.25 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.75. The NBC Sports Network broadcasts the game. The Last 16 round of the UEFA Champions League continues with two first leg matches at 3 PM ET. Bayern Munich visits Lazio at 3 PM ET as a -0.75 goal line road favorite with the total at 3.25. Chelsea plays at Atletico Madrid in a pick ‘em matchup on the CBS Sports Network with an over/under of 2.

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NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Defensive Efficiency Is Key!

by Power Sports

Tuesday, Feb 23, 2021

Before you know it, the NCAA Tournament will be underway. With that in mind, I wanted to discuss a key metric I look at every year when handicapping March Madness (well except 2020). Defensive efficiency is key. For those that are unaware, defensive efficiency refers not to the number of points a particular team allows per game, but rather over a given number of possessions. Typically, a team’s defensive efficiency rating is extracted from the number of points it allows per 100 possessions. The site KenPom.com makes even further adjustments and their ratings are the ones I lean on for my own College Basketball picks. Looking at efficiency gives you a better “feel” for how a team really plays defense as opposed to simply looking at the number of points they allow per game. Some teams play at much slower tempos and thus there are a fewer number of possessions per game. Therefore, they are likely to give up a lower number of points per game. (Note: if they don’t, that means they are pretty bad defensively!) Conversely, if a team is giving up fewer points in a game that has more possessions, then they are a significantly better defensive team. Even if you don’t care to understand defensive efficiency, that’s okay. The aforementioned KenPom posts every team’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating and you can view it there. The current top 10 teams in defensive efficiency rating (per KenPom) are: Loyola Chicago, Alabama, Memphis, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Baylor, Houston, Wisconsin, Illinois and VCU. Obviously, you’ve got some names on that list that you’d expect to see. Gonzaga and Baylor are both undefeated and the top two teams in the country. Alabama, Tennessee, Houston, Wisconsin and Illinois are all Top 25 teams you’d expect will perform well in the NCAA Tournament.But there are definitely two names on that list that should jump out to you. First and foremost, you’ve got Loyola Chicago, who is #1 in the entire country in defensive efficiency. The Ramblers are currently ranked in the Top 25, but only projected to be an 8-seed by the “esteemed” Joe Lunardi. In my opinion, this is NOT a team that any #1 seed would want to face in the Round of 32. I would almost certainly take the points with Loyola against any higher seed come tourney time. Remember - they made the Final Four three years ago! VCU is another team to keep an eye on. Right now, the Rams are very much a bubble team. But as a likely double digit seed, they’d make for a very live dog in the Round of 64. Unfortunately for Memphis, they are currently NOT projected to be a NCAA Tournament team. They’d be a real dark horse (to pull an upset or two, not to win the whole thing obviously) if they were somehow to make the field.Underdogs with strong defensive efficiency ratings make for strong plays come NCAA Tournament time. On the flip side, favorites with suspect defensive efficiency ratings are vulnerable to getting bounced early. There are likely to be a handful of teams in this year’s Tourney that will get high seeds despite defensive efficiency ratings outside the top 75. They are: Iowa, Ohio State and Villanova. Ohio State is even in the running for a #1 seed! I would not pick any of these squads to make it to the Final Four. Keep all this in mind when the brackets are released next month. It will help you be a more successful NCAA Tournament bettor. 

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NCAA Monday Night Basketball: Texas Tech/Oklahoma State Preview

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Feb 22, 2021

The Big Monday college basketball doubleheader on ESPN concludes at 9 PM ET in a battle of Big 12 foes jockeying for seeding in the NCAA Tournament.Texas Tech returned to action on Saturday after not playing for ten days in a 76-71 loss at Kansas as a 3-point underdog. The Jayhawks nailed a 3-pointer with 24 seconds to take the lead for good in handing the Red Raiders their second-straight loss. Kevin McCullar and Marcus Santos-Silva both scored 12 points. McCullar is second on the team with a 10.6 points-per-game scoring average, while Santos-Silva is fifth with his 8.4 points-per-game clip. Chris Beard’s team is ranked 15th nationally by the Associated Press with a 14-7 record. This group is likely his most talented team in his five years as head coach of this program. While he lost three starters from the team that finished 18-13 last season, he was aggressive in attracting some high-level transfers while bringing in a good freshman class to join junior Kyler Edwards and sophomore Terrence Shannon. Some of the depth Beard had established diminished when five-star freshman Nimari Burnett decided to leave the team to transfer to another school. He was averaging 17.7 minutes-per-game but only scoring 5.3 points-per-game. Georgetown transfer Mac McClung has adapted to Beard’s system to lead the team with a 16.9 points-per-game scoring average. Shannon is second on the team by scoring 12.6 points-per-game. The Red Raiders are once again an outstanding defensive team under Beard. They are 24th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to kenpom. Texas Tech is eighth in the country by forcing turnovers in 24.8% of their opponent’s possessions. This team thrives in getting second-chance shots as they pull down 34.1% of their missed shots, 26th in the country. They also get to the free-throw line as they rank 13th in free throw rate. The weakness of this team is shooting the basketball. The Red Raiders make only 33.8% of their 3-pointers and 48.2% of their shots inside the arc, ranking 163rd and 227th, respectively. Kenpom ranks their adjusted offensive efficiency at 31st nationally. Texas Tech fell to 6-6 in the conference with the loss on Sunday, leaving them in seventh place in the Big 12. They have been defeated twice by Kansas and West Virginia, with additional losses to Baylor and these Cowboys. They lost to Houston in non-conference action. Their highest-profile wins are against Texas and Oklahoma (twice), and LSU in a non-conference victory. Oklahoma State scored the final nine points last Tuesday in a 76-58 victory against Iowa State as an 11-point favorite. Cade Cunningham scored 21 points while pulling down five rebounds and dishing out seven assists. The freshman phenom leads the team with an 18.5 points-per-game scoring average. The 6’8 freshman point guard might be the number one pick in the NBA draft in June. Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe added 17 points. The freshman is fourth on the team with a 9.4 points-per-game scoring average. Last year’s leading scorer, Isaac Likekely, will be a game-time decision tonight after not playing on Tuesday. The 6’5  junior point guard is second on the team with a 10.2 points-per-game scoring average. He is contributing 7.0 rebounds-per-game and 3.8 assists-per-game.Oklahoma State, 14-6, have high-profile victories against Texas, Kansas, Arkansas, and these Red Raiders. The Cowboys are in sixth place in the Big 12 with a 7-6 record with losses to Baylor, West Virginia, Texas, and Kansas. Two conference losses to TCU dog their resume. The Cowboys are 85th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. Their 51.1% shooting mark inside the arc is 119th. They rank 19th at kenpom in adjusted defensive efficiency. Their opponent's effective field goal percentage of 45.9% ranks 23rd nationally.Oklahoma State upset Texas Tech on the road in Lubbock on January 5th, 82-77, as an 8-point underdog. BetAnySports lists the Red Raiders as a 3.5-point road favorite with the total set at 138.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL, NHL, NBA and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Feb 22, 2021

The Monday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, the NHL, and the English Premier League.The college basketball card tips off at noon ET, with Liberty hosting North Alabama as a 13.5-point favorite with the total set at 133 (all odds from BetOnline). Duke plays at home against Syracuse on ESPN at 7 PM ET. The Blue Devils, 10-8, won their third straight on Saturday with their 66-65 upset win against Virginia as a 3-point underdog. The Orange won their third straight on Saturday in a 75-67 win against Notre Dame as a 1.5-point favorite. Duke is a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 149. Texas Tech visits Oklahoma State on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Red Raiders are ranked 15th in the nation by the Associated Press with a 14-7 record. They lost at Kansas,67-61, as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. The Cowboys improved to 14-6 with a 76-58 win against Iowa State as a 1-point favorite last Tuesday. Texas Tech is a 3-point road favorite with a total of 138.5.USC is at home against Oregon on FS1 at 9 PM ET. The Trojans are ranked 17th by the AP with an 18-4 record. Their seven-game winning streak ended on Saturday in an 81-72 loss to Arizona as a 6-point favorite. The Ducks are 14-4 with five straight victories after their 67-64 win against Utah as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. USC is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 138.New Mexico visits Air Force on the CBS Sports Network at 9:30 PM ET. The Lobos, 5-13, lost their fifth in a row on Friday in a 79-67 setback to Wyoming as a 5-point underdog. The Falcons, 4-16, lost their ninth game in a row after their 67-54 loss to Fresno State as a 4.5-point underdog back on February 13th. This Mountain West Conference game is a pick ‘em with the total at 126.5.Six games are on the NBA slate for Monday. The card tips off at 8 PM ET with Houston hosting Chicago as a 1-point favorite. The nightcap is at 10 PM ET, with the Los Angeles Lakers playing at home against Washington as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 226. None of the games are on national television.Eight games are on tap in the NHL. Four games begin the action at 7 PM ET. The card concludes at 10 PM ET with Minnesota traveling to San Jose as a -149 money line road favorite with the total at 5.5.Matchweek 25 of the English Premier League finishes on Monday with Brighton and Hove Albion at home against Crystal Palace at 3 PM ET. The Seagulls stay at home after settling for a 0-0 draw with Aston Villa on February 13th. The Eagles are off a 3-0 loss at home to Burnley on February 13th. Brighton is a -0.75 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.25. The NBC Sports Network has the broadcast.

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MLB Baseball Futures Bet: MInnesota Twins to Win 2021 World Series

by Al McMordie

Monday, Feb 22, 2021

It's that time of the year again when I pull out my crystal ball to select a team to win this year's World Series.  And my success the last several years with Futures wagers is likely unparalleled.  Here's a quick review for newcomers.  In College Basketball, we cashed Virginia as our Preseason Futures wager (at 22-1 odds) to win the 2019 Title.  Also in 2019, we cashed our Futures wager on the Washington Nationals in Baseball, at 18-1 odds.  This past season we followed up the Nationals with our Preseason Futures pick on the Dodgers, at 4-1 odds.  And that made it three winning MLB Futures in four seasons, as we had Houston, at 10-1 odds, in 2017.  In hockey, we delivered with the Tampa Bay Lightning this past season, at 7-1 odds.  And we cashed the Spurs (14-1, 2014), Warriors (5-1, 2016), and Warriors again (-160, 2018) in the NBA.  Our preseason pick on the Baylor Bears (12-1 odds) in College Basketball will also have a decent shot to cash in the upcoming March Madness tournament.  Let's take a look at the upcoming 2021 baseball season.  It's my belief that the two best teams (Los Angeles Dodgers; San Diego Padres) reside in the National League West division.  But having the best team is not the same thing as winning the Championship.  In 2019, for example, we went with the Nationals who weren't the best team, but (at 18-1 odds) I believed they would always have a puncher's chance (or, more specifically, a "Pitcher's chance") with the 1-2 combination of Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer.  For this 2021 season, I don't believe there's enough value for me to take either the Dodgers (+370 at BetAnySports) or the Padres (8-1 odds at BetAnySports).  So, instead, I will look at backing an American League team.  And the Minnesota Twins stand out to me as having the best value.  Currently, the odds on the Twins to win the World Series are 22-1 (at each of Bovada, BetAnySports and BetOnline).  And the odds on the Twins to win the American League pennant are 9-1 (at each of BetAnySports and BetOnline).  In contrast, the World Series odds at BetAnySports have the New York Yankees at +625 and the Chicago White Sox at +1000.  By my numbers, neither the Yankees nor White Sox rate better than Minnesota, so it's an easy decision for me to go with the Twins as the best value play.There's no doubt that the White Sox are everyone's darlings in the AL Central division.  Last season, the division title went to the Twins, who went 24-7 at home, which was the best home record in baseball.  But they faltered at home in the playoffs against the Houston Astros.  So, perhaps due to last season's flame-out, a lot of pundits are looking past Minnesota.  But not me, as I believe this will be the year that the Twins finally back up a strong regular season with some success in October.   Chicago does have a lot of talent, but it might be a year away from being post-season contenders.  And if Chicago stumbles, the division is clearly Minnesota's to lose.  But regardless of whether the Twins win the division, it should make the post-season.  The Twins' line-up is a solid collection of mostly veterans (Kepler, Cruz, Buxton, Donaldson, Polanco, Sano) with a very talented rookie outfielder in Alex Kirilloff ready to step up.  But it's the pitching that will tell the story for this team.  The top three starters of Maeta, Berrios, and Pineda are sneaky good.  And the Twins addressed their bullpen issues with a huge Free Agent signing which not only should help them immensely, but also hurt their main competitor.  Somehow, the White Sox let veteran closer Alex Colome get away, only to sign with their division rivals after arguably his best season (2-0 with a 0.81 ERA and 12 saves).  Even if Colome isn't the Twins' go-to man in the 9th inning, he will still be a big boost to their bullpen.  Don't be surprised when the Twins finally come together this October.  Take Minnesota at 22-1 odds to win the World Series and 9-1 odds to win the American League pennant.  Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

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NCAA Sunday Afternoon Basketball: Ohio State/Michigan Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Feb 21, 2021

The CBS Sunday afternoon college basketball game features a Big Ten battle between two of the top-four teams in the nation.Michigan took the court for the first time since January 22nd last Sunday at Wisconsin after a three-week pause after the athletic department shut down all activities. The Wolverines fell behind by 14 points before holding the Badgers to 7 of 28 shooting in the second half in a 67-59 victory as a small favorite. Michigan followed up that victory with a 71-64 win at home against Rutgers as a 9.5-point favorite on Thursday. Sophomore Franz Wagner scored 20 points to improve his 12.6 points-per-game scoring average. Hunter Dickinson added 10 points and eight rebounds. The freshman leads the team with a 14.6 points-per-game scoring average along with a 7.8 rebounds-per-game mark. Senior Isaiah Livers's 14.5 points-per-game average is second on the team. Three other players score at least 8.1 points-per-game for head coach Juwan Howard.With a 15-1 record on the season, Michigan ranks third in the nation in the Associated Press poll. The Wolverines lead the Big Ten with a 10-1 record. Their lone loss was at Minnesota. This contest will be Michigan’s just sixth game away from Crisler Arena this season, but they have nice wins on the road at Maryland, Purdue, and at the Kohl Center last Sunday against Wisconsin. Michigan ranks seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency according to the metrics at kenpom. The Wolverines are 15th with a 56.3% shooting percentage inside the arc, which helps elevate their effective field goal percentage to 56.6%, tenth nationally. They are making 38.0% of their 3-point shots, ranking 24th nationally. Michigan registers an assist in 57.7% rate of their made field goals, 54th nationally. Only 6.5% of their shot attempts are getting blocked, 28th nationally.The Wolverines are 7th in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They are second in opponent’s effective field goal percentage with a 43.1% mark. Michigan is also second nationally by limiting their opponents to just 40.6% shooting inside the arc. These opponents make 32.0% of their 3-pointers, 92nd nationally. This team does not foul as they rank 22nd nationally in foul-rate. They block 12.8% of their opponent’s shots, 31st nationally. They hold their opponents to just a 43.5% assist rate, 23rd nationally.Ohio State won their seventh straight game on Thursday in a 92-82 win at Penn State as a 4.5-point favorite. The Buckeyes trails by 8 points at one point but a 15-0 run in the second half propelled them to the victory. E.J. Liddell scored 23 points. The sophomore leads the team that can go eleven deep from their bench with a 15.5 points-per-game scoring average. Head coach Chris Holtmann returned five of the nine players that played at least 10 minutes per game last year for the group that finished 21-10 with nine wins in their final twelve Big Ten games. Holtmann then added three impact transfers in the offseason: Abel Porter was the starting point guard at Utah State; Justice Sueing scored 14.6 points-per-game as a sophomore at California; Seth Towns is a former Ivy League Player of the Year at Harvard.The Buckeyes opened the Big Ten season by losing two of their first three games. Yet Holtmann has seen his team win ten of their last eleven games to rise to third place in the highly-competitive conference with a 12-4 record. Ohio State has lost to Minnesota, Northwestern, and twice to Purdue. The Buckeyes have Purdue while notching two wins apiece against defeated Wisconsin, Maryland, and Rutgers. They also have a resume-building victory against UCLA in non-conference play. With an 18-4 overall record, Ohio State ranks fourth in the current Associated Press poll. The Buckeyes are third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to the numbers at kenpom. They are 19th in free throw rate. Ohio State is 62nd in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. Holtmann’s team is third in the Big Ten by holding their opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 48.7%.BookMaker lists this matchup as a pick ‘em with the total set at 146. The CBS broadcast begins at 1 PM ET.

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