La Liga and Serie A: Latest Look

I already hit the EPL and Bundesliga. Now it’s time to check in on La Liga and Serie A. At the top, one race is all but decided while the other is very much up in the air. Relegation battles in both leagues have also gotten quite interesting.

La Liga 

Whereas Bayern Munich has already clinched a 10th straight Bundesliga title, it is not yet official that Real Madrid will be champions of La Liga this season. But that will happen as Los Blancos currently enjoy a 15-point cushion over Barcelona and Sevilla with just five matches to go. Therefore, Real Madrid can now concentrate on the Champions League where they’ll be facing off with Manchester City in the semifinals, starting Tuesday.

Speaking of Barcelona, they have lost three consecutive home matches for the first time in their history. The club clearly misses Pedri, but should still finish top four. Though it would be a small consolation, this could be the second year in a row Barca finishes 1st in La Liga in expected points (xPts) despite not actually winning the league.

While Real Madrid’s 35th title is all but assured at this point, the race for the remaining three Champions League spots has gotten quite interesting. I already hit on slumping Barcelona. You’ve also got Sevilla and last year’s champions, Atletico Madrid, currently in position to make next year’s Champions League. Personally, I think Sevilla is NOT as strong as its record indicates, though only four losses is huge and will probably ensure they stay in the top four. It should be noted they are only eighth in xPts. 

I’d also be surprised to see Atletico drop out of the top four, even though they have just one win in their last five competitions and have failed to score in four of them. 

Waiting in the wings, four points out of the top four, is Real Betis, who already has clinched a Europa League spot for next year by virtue of winning Saturday’s Copa del Rey Final over Valencia. If Betis finishes in the top five, then you’ll see another Europa League spot open up to the sixth place finisher in La Liga. That race likely comes down to Real Sociedad (who is better than their +1 goal differential indicates) and Villarreal (who is still playing in the Champions League).

The Champions League figures to be the focus of Villarreal right now, but it is unlikely they will win it. It would be a shame if this side is somehow locked out of European football next season. They are tied for third in GD in La Liga. Seventh place will likely gain entry into the Europa Conference League, but the Yellow Submarine must be wary of Athletic Bilbao, who is a solid side and only four points behind them. 

There’s a big gap between the top eight and everyone else in La Liga. Mid-table sides assured of safety (from relegation) for next season would include: Osasuna, Valencia, Rayo Vallecano, Celta Viga, Espanyol and Elche. I *think* Getafe might be okay as well, though compared to the aforementioned sides, they could really use one more win.

Therefore, you’re likely looking at five sides in the relegation battle. Levante (despite being 9th in xPts!) and Alaves are probably cooked. The third spot has gotten very interesting with Mallorca, Cadiz and Granada all separated by only two points. Mallorca has the worst GD of the three, but as I’ve previously said, Cadiz and Granada were both bottom three in xPts last season. Granada is currently last in xPts this season.

While title races in the Bundesliga and La Liga are wrapped up, here in Serie A it’s just like the Premier League - a very tight two-team battle at the top. 

AC Milan’s last gasp victory over Lazio on Sunday put them back ahead of Inter by two points. Had Sando Tonali not scored in the second minute of stoppage time, then the two Milan sides would be entering this week tied atop the summit. Inter has the better GD (+45 vs. +30) and is also ahead on xPts. Thus I still would not be shocked if they captured their second straight Scudetto. Also note that Inter just drilled AC Milan 3-0 to advance in the Coppa Italia. 

Napoli looked to be a title challenger for much of this season, but now looks destined for third place after earning just a single point from their last three matches. Blowing a two-goal lead to Empoli on Sunday was just horrific. 

The similarity with La Liga is that I don’t see the top four changing here in Italy. Juventus, still with a five-point cushion, should stay in the top four and note they are onto the final of the Coppa Italia where they’ll face Inter. (Note Juve’s cushion could get even larger as they’ve still got a fixture Monday that was not complete at the time of this writing). 

Assuming both Inter and Juve finish top four, that means an extra European spot opens up here in Serie A. That should be a fascinating race with Roma, Fiorentina, Lazio and Atalanta all grasping. I would bank on Roma and Atalanta finishing as the top two of that quartet. Lazio has drastically overachieved this season when it comes to goal scoring. In fact, no side in all of Europe has exceeded its xG (expected goal) total more! (I’ve brought this up previously). I could see Fiorentina being the one left out of European football next season.

The gap between the top eight and everyone else isn’t quite as stark here as it is in La Liga as you’ve got solid mid-table sides like Hellas Verona, Sassuolo and a side that has been very kind to me in recent weeks, Torino.

After that, it is a big drop, though Udinese, Bologna, Empoli and Spezia have all probably done enough to remain in the top flight next season. 

The relegation battle is interesting as all of a sudden, Salernitana, who has been in last place basically all season, has won three straight to move within three points of safety. They still have the worst GD (-42) and are tied with Genoa (-29), who won for just the third time all season on Sunday (1-0 over Cagliari), at 25 points. Now stuck in last place is Venezia with 22 points. 

Cagliari (28 points) and Sampdoria (30 points) both have work to do, but I still predict the bottom three will remain unchanged by season’s end.