EPL and Bundesliga: Latest Look

It’s time for our monthly check-in on Europe’s “Big 4” soccer leagues. We’re down the home stretch as the season ends in May!

This updates focuses on the EPL and Bundesliga. A look at La Liga and Serie A will come later this week. 

Premier League 

With anywhere from 4-6 matches remaining (depending on the club) there’s the possibility of as many as NINE Premier League sides playing European football next season.

So the race at the top has gotten quite interesting, Manchester City is still just one point ahead of Liverpool after the weekend. But it is the Reds that have the better goal differential and also hold a recent 3-2 victory (in the FA Cup) over the Citizens. (The teams also just played to a 2-2 draw in league play). The Reds are as hot as any side in Europe right now, winning 12 straight at Anfield and 14 of their last 15 overall. So it would not be a surprise to see them finish first. Both Liverpool and Man City are still alive in the Champions League where they’ll be favored to meet in the Final. 

Liverpool has already captured the Carabao Cup this season and could make it a quadruple by claiming hardware in the FA Cup (face Chelsea in the Final), Premier League and Champions League. Meanwhile, Man City could still make it a double (EPL, Champions League), which is obviously impressive.

Despite a recent slump, Chelsea has been the presumed third place finisher for a while now. A last gasp 1-0 win at West Ham on Sunday was absolutely huge. It would be a shock if Chelsea didn’t finish top four and book its place in next season’s Champions League. But Wednesday’s loss to Arsenal was the third fixture this month that Thomas Tuchel’s side has conceded 3+ goals! 

It’s probably going to be Tottenham or Arsenal rounding out the top four. Two weeks ago, the former was the favorite to finish fourth, but is now two points back after picking up just one point from the last two fixtures. Meanwhile, Arsenal has recorded huge wins over Chelsea and Manchester United. Tottenham has the better YTD goal differential, however Arsenal is ahead on xPts (expected points). 

There was no “new manager bounce” for floundering Manchester United on Saturday and the Red Devils now face a six-point deficit to finish top four. They have just one win in their last six competitions and it came at the expense of last place Norwich City. It looks like the Europa League for them next season. 

West Ham, currently in seventh, is still involved in this season’s Europa League where they are into the semis and will face Eintracht Frankfurt of the Bundesliga. That competition is probably now the Hammers’ main concern. If they don’t win it, which would qualify them for next season’s Champions League, then the Europa Conference League is still in play by finishing seventh.

Wolverhampton will be rooting for West Ham to win the Europa League as it would allow for the Wolves to “steal” the Premier League’s Europa Conference League spot. Leicester City is the ninth and final EPL side still with European hopes for next season. They are currently in the semis of the Europa Conference League, the winner of which gains automatic entry into next season’s Europa League. 

Got all that?

Mid-table sides are a dicey proposition down the home stretch as they know they can’t reach the European places, but are also well clear of the relegation zone. So motivation may be an issue for many of them. But one to keep an eye on right now is Brentford, who is unbeaten in its last four matches and beat both Chelsea and West Ham. The Bees are actually sixth in the league right now in xPts (expected points), ahead of both Man U and West Ham. Newcastle United is also playing inspired football. Crystal Palace deserves to be higher in the table.

As I’ve been saying for some time now, Norwich City and Watford certainly seem like they will be condemned to relegation. Both were newly promoted for the 2021/22 season, so it’s “one and done” for them. But the interesting thing at the bottom of the EPL table is who will be the third relegated side. Everton, who has been part of the top flight since 1951, now occupies that dreaded spot. Burnley passed them with this weekend’s win over Wolverhampton. 

The Toffees’ remaining set of fixtures is not an easy run and they desperately need Watford to beat Burnley next week. Leeds United, with the third worst GD in the EPL, is also still in the relegation mix.  

Bayern Munich has secured a historic 10th consecutive Bundesliga title after defeating second place Borussia Dortmund 3-1 at the Allianz Arena on Saturday.

There’s been much hand-wringing over the current state of the German top flight as there just doesn’t seem to be any real consistent challengers to Bayern and the league could be on the verge of a mass exodus of talent.

Case in point, Dortmund will almost certainly finish second this year, but is probably saying goodbye to Erling Haaland at the end of the season. So there’s no reason to believe that BVB is capable of making any noise in next season’s Champions League.

RB Leipzig, who got off to a slow start in 2021/22, is probably the Bundesliga’s second best side. They are still in competition for two pieces of hardware: the Europa League and DFB Pokal. Between those two competitions and a likely top four finish domestically, expect Leipzig to again qualify for the UCL. The worst that can happen to them is not winning any hardware and a fifth place finish. But even that would mean the Europa League next season.

The side Leipzig faces in the Final of the DFB Pokal will be Freiburg, who is currently in fifth, two points behind Leipzig. There’s a chance they both end up in the Champions League next season, if Leipzig wins the Europa League and Freiburg finishes top four. 

There’s a very good chance the Bundesliga’s Europa League and Europa League Conference spots will go to either FC Union Berlin, Koln or Hoffenheim. One will be “the odd team out.” Of those three, FCUB is the best side (in my opinion).

Fans of Bayer Leverkusen are probably wondering why I’ve neglected to mention their side so far. I apologize for that! Leverkusen has been top three all season, but after settling for a draw over the weekend, their lead over Leipzig stayed at one point and Freiburg is now only three points back. It’s no lock Leverkusen makes it to the Champions League next season. 

It’s Champions League or bust for ninth place Eintracht Frankfurt at this point. Frankfurt is currently in the semis and must win that competition to have any shot at European football next season. It could be an all-Bundesliga Final vs. Leipzig!

Looking at the middle of the table, Mainz, Gladbach, Wolfsburg, Bochum and Augsburg all seem to be safe from the threat of relegation.

On Sunday, Hertha Berlin (who has the 2nd worst GD in the league) picked up a huge win over Stuttgart to move four points clear of the relegation playoff, which calls for the 16th place finisher to face the winner of the promotion playoff from the Bundesliga 2 in a winner take all scenario. That’s Stuttgart right now and they are only two points ahead of Arminia Bielefeld. 

As a reminder, the bottom two are automatically relegated and as has been obvious since the first month of the campaign, Greuther Furth is finishing last. Something I’d mentioned in a previous article is that Bielefeld is actually lower than Greuther Furth on xPts.