The Copa Libertadores group stage is over and the bracket has been set for the Knockout Rounds. The Round of 16 is set to start on Tuesday, August 12, with each round being a 2-leg home and home until the Final which is a single leg match being played in Lima, Peru. Botafogo is the defending champion of the competition so a repeat of last season is possible, but there are plenty of talented teams who have a chance to make a deep run. With the bracket now set, it is time to see who has the best chance of taking home the trophy this season.
To Win Outright
Flamengo +300: Flamengo is coming into the Knockout Rounds as the team with the best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Flamengo has been in great form this season as they currently sit at the top of the Brasileirao table through 16 matches. They are a powerhouse in South America every year, but they have not been picking up many trophies in recent years which means the hunger to win has been growing for this team. They played very well in the Club World Cup when they went up against some of the best clubs from around the world and they really have not taken a break in their own league either. They have both the quality and the depth to make a deep run in this tournament and they are the best team talent-wise left in the competition. They have experience winning this competition in recent years as well so they are not going to be an easy out as this is the competition they will be focused on most. They also have the most favorable path in the bracket as their 1st match is against Internacional from their own domestic league, and Internacional has struggled a lot more in the Brasileirao to start the season. If they can past Internacional, the path really opens up for them as Racing Club would be the next strongest team on their side of the bracket and they do not come anywhere near the talent level of Flamengo. Some of the value is gone from Flamengo as they were +400 to start the competition, but they are still the best option to win it all so there is value at this price. Flamengo at +300 is still the best option for a team to win Copa Libertadores.
Palmeiras +450: Palmeiras is coming into the Knockout Rounds as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Palmeiras has been in great form recently and they have been one of the better teams in the Brasileirao this year as they are currently sitting in the top 3. They are also a powerhouse in the Brasileirao so they always have a team that can compete and they do have the quality and depth to make a deep run as well. Their defense has been great in their own league this season, but it has actually been their attack which has been a bit of a problem. They have only scored 19 goals in their 15 league matches this season and they have struggled in a few different matches against some of the stronger opponents in the Brasileirao this season as well. Palmeiras is also on a very tough side of the bracket with quite a few juggernauts to get through. They are getting Universitario in the 1st round and that is not a difficult matchup for them, but they could have to face Argentinian giant River Plate in the next round. If they can make it that far, there are some good clubs that could stop them in the Semi Final, including Botafogo who is the defending champion. Palmeiras is a very talented side, but they do not have the best path and this is not great value for them with the way they have struggled to beat stronger opponents this year. Palmeiras at +450 is not a great option to win this competition.
Botafogo +1000: Botafogo is coming into the Knockout Rounds as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Botafogo has been having a good season in the Brasileirao as they are currently sitting in the top 6 and they have been in much better form recently since coming back from the Club World Cup. They had a slower start to the season after winning both the Brasileirao and Copa Libertadores last year, but that tournament woke something up inside them and they are starting to ramp up their play now. Their attack has been a bit of a problem this season as they have only scored 18 goals in 15 league matches, but they also have the 2nd best defense in the Brasileirao behind Flamengo as they have only allowed 8 goals in their 15 league matches. They leaned on that defense in the Club World Cup and they had some impressive results. They are on the tougher side of the bracket, but they do have an easier path on that side. Their 1st match is against LDU Quito who is certainly a weaker squad and then they would have to face the winner of Sao Paulo/Atletico Nacional in the next round who are both good teams, but not elite like Botafogo. They are also on the side of the bracket with Palmeiras and River Plate who are both South American giants, but they would only have to face 1 of them in the Semi Final if the teams make it that far. This competition has also been dominated by Brasilian clubs in recent years so this is great value for a Brasilian club who is also the defending champion of the competition. Botafogo at +1000 has some great value to win this competition.
Internacional +1000: Internacional is coming into the Knockout Rounds as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Internacional is currently sitting in 10th in the Brasileirao and they were not in great form to start the season. They have been in much better form recently as they are starting to turn the corner, but they had a very slow start to the year despite having a very good squad with a lot of quality and depth. They still have the talent to do something in this tournament, but they have struggled a lot against the stronger opponents they have faced in the Brasileirao this season. They have a very good defense that has only allowed 10 goals in 16 league matches, but they also have an awful attack that has scored 17 goals in those 16 matches as well. They are on the easier side of the bracket, but their 1st match is against the strongest team in the competition, Flamengo, so this is awful value for a team that could very easily be eliminated in the Round of 16. If they can get by Flamengo then the bracket would really open up for them and they would have a decent shot at the Final, but there are still plenty of other teams who can match their talent and make it very difficult for them. Internacional was a dark horse to start the tournament, but they were not given a good draw in the bracket and they have not looked like a team that can beat Flamengo in a 2-leg matchup. There is no real value in Internacional at this price.
Sao Paulo +1000: Sao Paulo is coming into the Knockout Rounds as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Sao Paulo is currently sitting in 8th place in the Brasileirao and they have been in much better form recently as they are ramping up again, but they also just went through a very poor stretch of form and they have been very inconsistent from match to match all season. They have also allowed more goals than they have scored in their domestic league this season and they do not have the quality to make a deep run in this tournament. They are also on the tougher side of the bracket with teams like Botafogo, Palmeiras, and River Plate, but even their 1st match against Atletico Nacional is not going to be an easy round. Atletico Nacional has been building a team to compete in this competition this year and they were very good in the group stage as well so they are going to be a threat in this round and there is a chance that Sao Paulo does not even make it out of the Round of 16. Even if they do make it out, the path will be too difficult as they could have to face a stronger team in every round so there is no real value in them winning the tournament. Sao Paulo at +1000 does not have much value for them to win this competition.
River Plate +1100: River Plate is coming into the Knockout Rounds as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. River Plate is currently sitting in 2nd place overall in the LPF table as they had a very good Apertura, but they still came up short in the playoffs. They ended up getting kicked out by a much weaker Platense side who went on to win the whole playoffs, and then they struggled in the Club World Cup as well, failing to make it out of the group stage. They have been in much better form now to start the Clausura, but they have also had a lot of their success come at home this year. They have struggled a lot more in away matches this season, specifically with their attack as they only scored 7 goals in their 7 away matches in the Apertura. They did not lose an away match, but they did draw 5 of their 7 away matches in the Apertura and those draws are going to come back to bite them against stronger opponents in this competition, especially with the side of the bracket they are on. They are on the tougher side of the bracket and they do not have an easy path on that side. They face Libertad in the 1st round who should not pose a big threat to them, but there is a chance they could see Palmeiras in the next round as well as Botafogo in the round after if they can make it that far. River Plate is an Argentinian giant, but a club from Argentina has not won this competition in years and River Plate has also struggled to lift trophies in their own domestic league over the recent years as well. River Plate is a quality side, but they do not have what it takes to make a deep run in this competition against the strength of opponents they will have to face along the line. River Plate at +1100 does not have great value to win this competition.
RecommendationFlamengo has been the biggest favorite in the competition since before it started and they are still the best team in the competition. They have a great path to the Finals and are easily the strongest team left in it with the form they have been in this season as well. Botafogo is also a good option though as they are the defending champion of the competition and also won the Brasileirao last season. They have been making a name for themselves as an elite club over the last few years and even though they are on the tougher side of the bracket, they have a more favorable path on that side and it is great value for a team that just won the competition last season. Flamengo at +300 is still the best option to win this competition, but Botafogo at +1000 is a good dark horse and there is a chance that these two meet up in the Final.
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