by Team Del Genio
Saturday, Feb 28, 2026The best two units on the field in Super Bowl LX were destined to be the defenses of the Seahawks and Patriots. Either group had a strong opportunity to stifle their opposing offense, which would all but ensure an under for this game.
The Patriots’ last five games had been their best defensive games of the season. Over that stretch, they had not given up more than 16 points, and they held those five opponents to 9.2 points per game. Getting defensive end Milton Williams back from an injury that kept him out for five games made a big difference. He had played the last four games after getting back on the field in their final regular season game against Miami.
It made sense that this defense would continue to improve in the first year under head coach Mike Vrabel, given his defensive background. The transition from last year was made more difficult with the cancer diagnosis of first-year defensive coordinator Terrell Williams in the fall. Yet inside linebacker coach Zak Kerr stepped into that role and did a great job while Williams helped with game planning, and Williams was back with the team and cancer-free.
Several schematic adjustments have unlocked this defense. After only blitzing 27.4% of the time in the regular season, the 19th lowest rate in the NFL, they had sent extra rushers 41.4% of the time in the postseason. They were also playing more disguised pre-snap looks as the season went on, and this was an area where they could make life difficult for the Seahawks’ Sam Darnold. While Darnold handled pressure better in the playoffs, his play declined when encountering disguised coverage pre-snap. In the regular season against disguised coverage, Darnold completed 65.4% of his passes with an 8.1 yards per attempt average, and three touchdown passes, but six interceptions. Yet in the playoffs against disguised pre-snap coverage, he had completed only 6-of-12 passes (50%) for 49 yards, a 4.9 yards per attempt average, and zero touchdown passes.
Darnold’s play declined in the second half of the regular season after an outstanding start, yet he remained effective when throwing from play-action passes. Yet New England thrived when defending against play-action passes. Since the tenth week of the season, the Patriots were the number one DVOA defense against play-action passes.
The Seahawks like to use out-breaking routes where the receiver cuts away from the center of the field, and they ranked fifth in DVOA efficiency with those passing schemes. Yet since the tenth week of the season through the playoffs, New England improved from 29th to seventh in DVOA in defending those routes. Given the season-ending injury to Zach Charbonnet, more was going to be asked of running back Kenneth Walker and Darnold in the passing game.
The Patriots were an over team in Vrabel’s first season with a 13-6-1 mark, and the over is 64-56 in his head coaching career, going back to his first stint with Tennessee. Yet in his eight games in the playoffs as a head coach, his teams played six of those games under the number. We expected that postseason under trend to continue. The New England offense averaged 28.8 seconds per play, which was the third slowest tempo in the NFL.
These expectations were validated in Seattle’s 29-13 victory to win the Super Bowl. The final score appears much more threatening to the under than how the game played out. Neither team had scored a touchdown entering the fourth quarter, with the Seahawks winning, 9-0. Seattle would go on to score a defensive touchdown from a Drake Maye-intercepted pass. The Seahawks gained only 335 yards of offense. Any chatter of Sam Darnold elevating his game to an elite level in the NFL should be tempered by his 19-of-38 passing performance for 202 yards. He limited his mistakes, yet it was the Seattle defense that dominated this game. Yet the Patriots’ defense could not have been asked to do much more when considering that they were responsible for only 22 of the Seahawks' points.
The play of the New England defense was one of the reasons why we won our NFL Total of the Year in the Super Bowl with the under.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
The Patriots’ last five games had been their best defensive games of the season. Over that stretch, they had not given up more than 16 points, and they held those five opponents to 9.2 points per game. Getting defensive end Milton Williams back from an injury that kept him out for five games made a big difference. He had played the last four games after getting back on the field in their final regular season game against Miami.
It made sense that this defense would continue to improve in the first year under head coach Mike Vrabel, given his defensive background. The transition from last year was made more difficult with the cancer diagnosis of first-year defensive coordinator Terrell Williams in the fall. Yet inside linebacker coach Zak Kerr stepped into that role and did a great job while Williams helped with game planning, and Williams was back with the team and cancer-free.
Several schematic adjustments have unlocked this defense. After only blitzing 27.4% of the time in the regular season, the 19th lowest rate in the NFL, they had sent extra rushers 41.4% of the time in the postseason. They were also playing more disguised pre-snap looks as the season went on, and this was an area where they could make life difficult for the Seahawks’ Sam Darnold. While Darnold handled pressure better in the playoffs, his play declined when encountering disguised coverage pre-snap. In the regular season against disguised coverage, Darnold completed 65.4% of his passes with an 8.1 yards per attempt average, and three touchdown passes, but six interceptions. Yet in the playoffs against disguised pre-snap coverage, he had completed only 6-of-12 passes (50%) for 49 yards, a 4.9 yards per attempt average, and zero touchdown passes.
Darnold’s play declined in the second half of the regular season after an outstanding start, yet he remained effective when throwing from play-action passes. Yet New England thrived when defending against play-action passes. Since the tenth week of the season, the Patriots were the number one DVOA defense against play-action passes.
The Seahawks like to use out-breaking routes where the receiver cuts away from the center of the field, and they ranked fifth in DVOA efficiency with those passing schemes. Yet since the tenth week of the season through the playoffs, New England improved from 29th to seventh in DVOA in defending those routes. Given the season-ending injury to Zach Charbonnet, more was going to be asked of running back Kenneth Walker and Darnold in the passing game.
The Patriots were an over team in Vrabel’s first season with a 13-6-1 mark, and the over is 64-56 in his head coaching career, going back to his first stint with Tennessee. Yet in his eight games in the playoffs as a head coach, his teams played six of those games under the number. We expected that postseason under trend to continue. The New England offense averaged 28.8 seconds per play, which was the third slowest tempo in the NFL.
These expectations were validated in Seattle’s 29-13 victory to win the Super Bowl. The final score appears much more threatening to the under than how the game played out. Neither team had scored a touchdown entering the fourth quarter, with the Seahawks winning, 9-0. Seattle would go on to score a defensive touchdown from a Drake Maye-intercepted pass. The Seahawks gained only 335 yards of offense. Any chatter of Sam Darnold elevating his game to an elite level in the NFL should be tempered by his 19-of-38 passing performance for 202 yards. He limited his mistakes, yet it was the Seattle defense that dominated this game. Yet the Patriots’ defense could not have been asked to do much more when considering that they were responsible for only 22 of the Seahawks' points.
The play of the New England defense was one of the reasons why we won our NFL Total of the Year in the Super Bowl with the under.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
