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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 12/01/2023

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 01, 2023

The Friday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action. The college football season begins its postseason with two conference championship games. Liberty hosts New Mexico State on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET in the Conference USA championship game. The Flames continued their unbeaten season by raising their record to 12-0 with a 42-28 win at UTEP as a 17-point favorite last Saturday. The Aggies are on an eight-game winning streak after their 20-17 upset victory against Jacksonville State as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Liberty is an 11.5-point favorite, with the total set at 57 (all odds from DraftKings). Oregon battles Washington on ABC at 8 PM ET in the Pac-12 championship game played on a neutral field at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Ducks are on a six-game winning streak after their 31-7 victory against Oregon State as a 13.5-point favorite last Friday. The Huskies continued their unbeaten season with a 24-21 victory against Washington State as a 16-point favorite on Saturday to improve their record to 12-0. Oregon is a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 65.5.The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. The Orlando Magic play at home against the Washington Wizards at 7:10 PM ET as an 11-point favorite with a total of 237.5. Three more NBA games tip off at 7:40 PM ET. The Boston Celtics are at home against the Philadelphia 76ers on ESPN as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 222.5. The Toronto Raptors host the New York Knicks as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 216.5. The Dallas Mavericks play at home against the Memphis Grizzlies as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 229. The New Orleans Pelicans are at home against the San Antonio Spurs at 8:10 PM ET as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 232.5. The Denver Nuggets travel to Phoenix against the Suns on ESPN at 10:10 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 224. The National Hockey League has two games on its slate at 7:07 PM ET. The Ottawa Senators play in Columbus against the Blue Jackets as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 7. The New Jersey Devils host the San Jose Sharks as a -470 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has five games on national television. Houston visits Xavier on FS1 at 6:30 PM ET as a 9.5-point road favorite with a total of 138.5. St. John’s plays at West Virginia on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET as a 5.5-point road favorite, with an over/under of 146.5. Iowa State is at DePaul on FS1 at 8:30 PM ET as a 13.5-point road favorite with a total of 139. Kansas plays at home against Connecticut on ESPN2 at 9 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 148.5. Saint Mary’s faces Boise State on FS1 at 10:30 PM ET on a neutral court at the Mountain America Center in Idaho Falls, Idaho, as a 4-point favorite with a total of 130.5. 

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The Future Is Now for the Oklahoma City Thunder

by Team Del Genio

Thursday, Nov 30, 2023

The Oklahoma City Thunder are making an early case that the future is now for this team who surprised the league last year by making the Play-In Tournament.Chet Holmgren has been just what this team has needed with his shot-blocking on defense and his 3-point shooting. The former Gonzaga star missed last season after a lisfranc injury so the Thunder were not sure what to expect from the second pick in the 2022 draft. He is averaging 17.9 points per game and pulling down 8.0 rebounds per game. He is hitting 43.1% of his shots from 3-point land. He is averaging 2.2 blocked shots per game.Lu Dort is hitting 3-pointers as well. After never making more than 34.2% of his 3-pointers in his previous four seasons, the former Arizona State Sun Devil is making 42.9% of his 3-pointers. The Thunder went into the last day of November leading the NBA with a 40.9% shooting mark from 3-point range. Head coach Mark Daigneault is getting great play from his bench from players like Isaiah Joe and rookie Cason Wallace. During their recent six-game winning streak, Joe made 50% or more of his shots from 3-point land. For the season, the former Arkansas star is coming off the bench to score 10.9 points per game on 46.1% shooting and a 47.1% clip from 3-point range. Wallace is averaging 6.9 points per game off the bench while making 61.6% of his shots and 58.6% of his 3-pointers. Daigneault turned to the former Kentucky Wildcat who they selected tenth in the NBA draft as his fifth starter when Jalen Williams was out with an injury. Finally, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has taken another step in his game and is an early candidate for Most Valuable Player in the NBA. Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 30.6 points per game on 54.1% shooting. He is adding 6.1 assists per game and 5.9 rebounds per game. Oklahoma City is playing outstanding defense as they rank fifth in the league by allowing 109.4 points per 100 possessions. They rank in the top ten in the NBA by holding their opponents to a 63.9% shooting percentage at the rim. They rank second in the NBA in transition defense. The Thunder had covered the point spread in six of their last eight games when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite. They had covered the point spread in twenty-eight of their last forty-two games in November.The Thunder ended the month in style with a 133-116 victory against the Los Angeles Lakers (The Team’s NBA Game of the Month). Oklahoma City only shot 33% (14 of 42) from the 3-point land yet still made 53% of their shots from the field. Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 33 points. They held the Lakers to 44% shooting and just 33% from 3-point land. Going into December with a 12-6 record, the Thunder are making a strong claim that their young core of talent already has them as a team to be reckoned with in the Western Conference. Good luck - TDG.

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Sean Payton has Russell Wilson Cooking Again — But It's From the Wrong Saints Quarterback’s Recipe Book

by Hollywood Sports

Thursday, Nov 30, 2023

The Denver Broncos have picked themselves off the mat from a humiliating 70-20 loss early in the season to win five games in a row and get back into the AFC playoff hunt race with a 6-5 record. The formula for success for head coach Sean Payton has been running the football, burning time off the clock with an opportunistic defense that has forced 15 turnovers in their last four games. The Denver defense is playing better when not being asked to be on the field as long — they are allowing only 16.5 Points-Per-Game in their last six games.  Payton is being credited for “fixing” Russell Wilson who “was never, ever washed” according to his many defenders in the national media. From this view, Wilson’s problem was last year’s head coach Nathaniel Hackett who apparently forced-fed him a box of donuts every morning while the former Seattle quarterback was giving him the playbook that would finally “Let Russ Cook”. Sarcasm aside, credit goes to Payton for getting this team to play much better than their 50-point loss to Miami earlier this season. Let’s leave it as simply ironic that the recipe to get Russ Cooking again came from the old Seahawks playbook under the much-maligned offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who was accused of holding Wilson back. A big question in the offseason was whether Payton could use his old blueprints that were successful with his quarterback in New Orleans — but who would have guessed that those game plans were initially designed for Taysom Hill rather than Drew Brees? And that’s my point: Wilson is playing better because he is not being asked to do much. He had less than 30 pass attempts in four straight games and five of his last six games after Denver’s 29-12 win against Cleveland when Wilson only attempted 22 passes. The last time Wilson did not pass the ball at least 30 times was early in the 2018-19 campaign after he endured six sacks in the opening two games of the season (and it was later in the year when the “Let Russ Cook” mantra was born criticizing Schottenheimer for not drawing up more passing plays). Wilson did throw 35 passes in the Broncos’ victory against Minnesota on November 19th, but he needed the final drive to get into the 30s with his pass attempts with the game script forcing Payton to rely almost exclusively on Wilson’s arm. Admittedly, Wilson has been very effective in engineering two game-winning drives during this recent winning streak. And he has an outstanding 20:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But Denver did not sign him for $161 million in guaranteed money along with a $50 million signing bonus for a quarterback averaging only 26 pass attempts per game. The Taysom Hill comparison is apt. In Payton’s last season with New Orleans in 2021-22 in the year after Drew Brees retired, Hill started four games in the second half of the season where he was the exclusive quarterback and did not share playing time with Trevor Siemian. Hill averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game while only attempting more than 28 passes in a game once when he threw the ball 41 times in a 10-point loss to Dallas. For comparison’s sakes, Payton had Brees average 34.3 pass attempts in his final regular season in 2020 in games where he was knocked out because of injury — he attempted 30 or more passes in nine of the 11 regular season games in which he did not get injured. Perhaps Payton has pushed the right buttons to get Wilson back to the version of himself that he was in Seattle — the problem is that that is the version that was widely criticized as being too conservative and holding back his talents. The entire fever dream of Wilson getting liberated from Pete Carroll’s defensive philosophies was that he would be that he could finally COOK working with an offensive head coach. Nathaniel Hackett demonstrated things were more complicated than simply inserting an offensive mentality. And if Payton has let Wilson into the kitchen, the recipe book is the same one he used with Taysom Hill — a “quarterback” who cannot displace a guy making only $37.5 million per yard in Derek Carr in New Orleans. If you think Wilson is “fixed”, then you are moving the goalposts. Best of luck — Frank.     

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Coppa Italia Futures 2023/24

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Thursday, Nov 30, 2023

The Coppa Italia started in August with 44 teams across all of the Italian leagues in the field of play and now it is entering the Round of 16 with only 16 clubs left in the competition. Inter Milan is the B2B defending champion of the competition but Juventus holds the most titles with 14 Coppa Italias won. Now it is time to see which of these 16 teams left has the best chance of making the run to the finals and lifting the cup.  To Win Outright Inter Milan +350: Inter Milan is coming into this Round of 16 listed as the team with the best odds of winning the competition. Inter Milan is the B2B defending champion of the competition, winning it the last 2 straight years, and they are also tied for 2nd on the all-time list with 9 cup wins as well as 6 times as runner up. They have had one of the best squads in Italy for years now and they are coming off of another great season, currently leading the league table this year as well. Inter Milan did not win the league title last year but they won the Coppa Italia and they also went to the finals of Champions League as well. They did come away with the Coppa Italia at least but with the way Napoli ran away with the league title last season, the league is going to be a big focus for Inter this season. Inter Milan is also going to be focused on doing well in Champions League since they went to the finals last year. This Inter Milan team is very talented with a lot of depth in their squad but it is very tough to win every competition in the same year and considering how they have won this one the last 2 straight years while coming so close in the others, they will not be as focused on winning the Coppa Italia a 3rd straight time when the league title and Champions League title are more important to them. Inter Milan does have a very good chance of getting to the finals due to their path in the competition but they will still have to face some of the top clubs in Italy on the way and could stumble with their focus being elsewhere. Inter Milan is still a good choice but not the best choice to win the cup this year. Napoli +350: Napoli is coming into this Round of 16 listed as another team with the best odds of winning the competition. Napoli is coming off of a very good season last year as they won the league title with a massive points lead over 2nd place but they have not been playing at the same level this year. They are still a top team in Italy with a lot of talent and depth in their squad, but they have definitely taken a step back from their amazing run last season. They also fizzled out in Champions League last season so that is going to be a big focus for them this year as well as trying to repeat winning the league title. They have not had much success in this competition either as they have only won 6 Coppa Italias which is 6th on the all-time list and the last time they won it was in the 2019/20 season which is also their only Coppa Italia win in the last 9 years. Napoli also has a much tougher path to the finals as they will have to play the winner of Juventus vs Salernitana in the next round and possibly play Lazio or Roma on their way to the finals if they can get through. This is not a competition Napoli is usually focused on and they are not going to be focused this year with such a good squad that is capable of performing well in both the league and Champions League. Napoli will not be the team lifting the cup this season.  Juventus +400: Juventus is coming into this Round of 16 listed as the team with the next best odds of winning the competition. Juventus did not have a good season last year with the scandals surrounding them that led to their points deduction but they were actually a good enough team to play in Europe despite the points deduction as they had the 2nd best record in Italy but the punishments have kept them out this season. They still have a very good team this year though and they have shown it in their matches as they are in 2nd place in the table and are pushing to win the league title with a chip on their shoulder after last year. They also have one of the best defenses in Italy with the number of goals they have been conceding and that alone will take them very deep into this competition. They also have a major advantage now since their punishments have kept them out of European competition this season so they have no extra matches to play in and will be very focused on winning this competition. Juventus has also had a lot of success in this competition over the years as they have won the most Coppa Italias with 14 wins and 7 times being the runner up. They have actually been in the finals in 3 of the last 5 years and they have won this competition 5 times in the last 9 years while being the runner up twice, making more appearances in the finals over the last decade than any other team. Juventus has extra motivation to win everything they can this year after the way things went for them last season and they have the squad depth and talent to perform well in the league while also being very focused on this competition. Juventus has the best chance of winning this competition this season, it is their year.  AC Milan +600: AC Milan is coming into this Round of 16 listed as the team with the next best odds of winning the competition. AC Milan has a very good team in Italy as they have been a top 4 team competing for the title over the last few years and they have also had success in Champions League as well. AC Milan is also the kind of team that tends to perform well in every competition but will be lucky if they can even win 1 of them. They always seem to fizzle out in the knockouts of Champions League despite being focused on the competition and they have only won the league title once over the last 5 years. Even playing in this competition, they have only won the Coppa Italia 5 times, being the runner up 9 different times, and the last time they were even in the finals was the 2017/18 season which they lost. AC Milan has a very good team this year with a lot of talent but they also lost some key players in the transfer window that they did not find proper replacements for and they will also be more focused on winning the league title as well as Champions League before this competition. AC Milan does not have a good chance of winning this competition this year. Roma +900: Roma is coming into this Round of 16 listed as the team with the next best odds of winning the competition. Roma is coming off of a bad season as they did not finish in the top 4 and they have been slipping in the league under Jose Mourinho. Finishing in the top 4 has always been a focus for Roma as well as performing well in European competition. They went to the finals of Europa League last season which they lost but they will be focused to get back there since they have had a lot of success in that competition over the recent years. Italy is filled with a lot of talented teams now and it is becoming very difficult for Roma to compete for a top 4 spot with the talent they have. Roma has a good team but they have always been more of a Europa League caliber team compared to a Champions League caliber team. Nevertheless, getting into the top 4 has always been a focus for them and it will continue to be this season as they try to get back to Champions League while also trying to win Europa League. They do not have the talent in their depth to juggle 3 different competitions though and this will be the one they are the least focused on. They were also eliminated by Cremonese last season, who they are playing in this round, and they have not had success in the Coppa Italia for years either. Roma does not have a strong enough squad to make the run in this competition and win it.  Lazio +1000: Lazio is coming into this Round of 16 listed as the team with the next best odds of winning the competition. Lazio has been a very good team in Italy for years but they are also a team that has been hovering between Champions League and Europa League with so many good teams in Italy over the years. They performed very well last season though to get into Champions League this year and they will definitely be focused on doing well in that competition as well as in league play. Lazio has not been as good in their league matches this season though and a big reason is some of the midfield depth they lost in the transfer window. They still have a very good team but right now they have been struggling to win matches in Serie A as they try to juggle their Champions League matches in between as well. Lazio has lost some of their talent from last year and they just do not have the squad to go deep in this competition this season with more important competitions to focus on. Lazio will not be a threat to win the Coppa Italia this season.  Rest of the Field: The top 6 teams to win this competition have been covered and there are still plenty of good teams left in this competition, but none of them past these 6 has much of a chance to win. Atalanta at +1200 is not a great choice since Atalanta is playing in Europe this season and also trying to perform better in Serie A to get back in a Champions League spot which they were holding down for years until recently. Fiorentina at +1800 has value considering how they were the runner up last season, but they also have the same issue as AC Milan where they perform well in all their competitions but always come up short in each. The fact of the matter is, the Coppa Italia has been dominated by the same 4 teams over the last 15 years with no teams other than Inter Milan, Juventus, Napoli, and Lazio winning it, and this season is not going to be any different with the strength of those teams that do focus on this competition.  RecommendationThere are plenty of good teams in Italy this season but schedules and motivation always has to be questioned in these cup tournaments. There is a clear option for the team with the best chance of winning it all as Juventus at +400 has the most value considering their lack of having to juggle European competition this year. Inter Milan at +350 is also a close 2nd for value since they are the defending champions the last 2 years and have the more favorable side of the bracket which means they could end up being the team Juventus plays in the finals. The Coppa Italia finals this season will most likely be between Inter Milan and Juventus so Juventus at +400 is the best option but Inter Milan at +350 is a good 2nd choice since bettors can come away with profit either way if both teams make it to the finals. 

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EFL (Carabao) Cup Futures 2023/24

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Thursday, Nov 30, 2023

The Carabao Cup has reached the quarter-finals with only 8 teams left in the competition. The field started with 92 teams across all of the different English leagues but now it is down to the final 8 and it is time to see who has the best chance of taking home the cup this season with focus and motivation in mind. To Win Outright Liverpool +187: Liverpool is coming into the quarter-finals as the favorite to win the competition according to the books. Liverpool has the best squad out of all the teams left in the competition and they made a lot of good moves in the transfer window to improve their team as they have been competing for the title this season. They are also the team with the most EFL Cups in history as they have won this competition 9 times and have also been the runner up 4 times, the last time they won this competition being 2 seasons ago in 2022. Liverpool also has a very favorable road to the finals as they are playing against West Ham in this round and if they get past them, they will be playing the winner of Everton vs Fulham to get to the finals. Liverpool is playing in European competition this year which could be a distraction but they also have a lot of depth and are playing against much weaker teams in Europa League. The only thing hurting their chances is the way their defense has been playing this season which has been a big problem going back to last year but even with those problems, they have the strongest squad in the competition and are one of the better choices to take home the cup.  Chelsea +333: Chelsea is coming into the quarter-finals as the team listed with the next best odds to win the competition according to the books. Chelsea has not had a great start to their season after the disaster season they had last year but they have hired a good manager for the team and fixed a lot of problems by getting rid of a lot of the players they signed. They have been starting to catch fire in their Premier League matches recently and they do have an advantage since they are not playing in any European competitions this year so they have only been playing 1 match per week and will be more focused on this competition as they have the depth as well. They also have a very favorable path to the finals since they are getting Newcastle in this round who has a laundry list of injuries to their depth and are already struggling to juggle their squad between Premier League matches and Champions League matches. If Chelsea manages to get by Newcastle in this round, then they will be playing the winner of Port Vale vs Middlesbrough to get to the finals, neither of those teams even being in the Premier League. Chelsea also has a good history in this competition as they are 5th on the all-time list with 5 cups and 4 times being runner up, the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place teams on that list all being knocked out of the competition already as well. Chelsea has a very good chance to get to the finals with their current path there and they also have the added advantage of only having league matches to focus on. Chelsea is the best choice to win this competition this year with all things being considered. Newcastle +350: Newcastle is coming into the quarter-finals as the team listed with the next best odds to win the competition according to the books. Newcastle has a very good team this season as they were one of the better teams in the Premier League last year but with their current situation, this is not a competition they are going to be focused on winning. Newcastle has not performed as well as last year in the Premier League with the extra matches of European competition. They are currently outside the top 4 in the league and they have not performed well in Champions League either. They have still been putting more focus toward league matches and Champions League matches though as they are trying to keep the dream alive of playing in Europe. They are also in an awful situation here as the injuries have been piling up for Newcastle and they have the talent in their starting XI to be a great team, but they also have no depth left as of right now with all of the injuries and they cannot afford to keep their starting lineup in with more important matches coming up in the league and Europe. Newcastle also has to face Chelsea in this round and it is very likely that they do not get by since they will have to rotate players and put out a much weaker squad. The FA Cup has not started yet either so there is still silverware for Newcastle to win and with their current situation, this is simply not a competition they are going to be focused on winning. Newcastle does not have a very good chance to take home the cup here.  Everton +800: Everton is coming into the quarter-finals as the team listed with the next best odds to win the competition according to the books. Everton has not been playing well this season as they were very close to being relegated last year and they started this season playing in the same form. Recently they have come around though as they have been in much better form overall and have been playing very well against some of the better teams in the Premier League as well. They have also been playing well in this competition as they knocked out Aston Villa in one of the rounds but they still have a very tough road ahead of them. Everton is playing against Fulham in this round who is no pushover and even if they do get by, they will have to play the winner of Liverpool vs West Ham in the next round which either team will be a tough out for them. They will also have a tough challenge in the finals if they make it there and with the squad struggling to stay above the relegation zone in the league, they have bigger things to worry about than this competition. They do not have the depth to take them that far either and eventually they will run into a stronger team that knocks them out. Everton does not have a great chance of winning this competition.  West Ham +900: West Ham is coming into the quarter-finals as the team listed with the next best odds to win the competition according to the books. West Ham is a team that has a lot of talent in their squad but they have not performed to their full potential over the last year. Last season, they were very close to the relegation zone despite being in the Europa Conference League and winning the entire competition. They have a very similar team this season but did lose a bit of talent in the transfer window and it has shown in their matches. They have still been struggling in their Premier League matches all season and because they won the Conference League last season, they are also playing in Europa League this year which is still extra matches for them to play. They are already thinner on the depth side from the transfer window and right now they have been able to manage getting to this point while also juggling league matches with Europa League matches. West Ham has not been dominating Europa League the way they dominated the Conference League though and as they get deeper into the competition, they will not be able to juggle the 3 competitions with the current depth they have. West Ham is also more focused on winning matches in Europa League so when push comes to shove, they will be more focused on Europa League matches over this competition and it will show in their lineups. West Ham does not have much of a chance to win this cup this season.  Fulham +1200: Fulham is coming into the quarter-finals as the team listed with the next best odds to win the competition according to the books. Fulham was a middle of the table team last season and they lost a lot of key talent in the transfer window with their striker leaving the club. Their attack has not been as fluid this season which has led to goal droughts at times and they do not have a lot of depth in their squad either. They have had a pretty easy path to this round as well as they beat Tottenham at the beginning of the season in their 1st cup match played and have not faced another Premier League team since then. Fulham has also been a very inconsistent team in the Premier League despite not having any extra competitions to worry about besides this one. Their path is only going to get much harder as well and it start in this round as they take on the red hot Everton and if they manage to get past them, they will likely have to play much stronger competition in the semis and finals. This is a competition that they will likely be focused on winning and it will reflect in their lineup as well, but even with a full lineup in these matches, they do not have the talent or depth in their squad as some of the other teams they might face and eventually they will run into a much stronger team that will knock them out. Fulham could end up making a run as a dark horse but they will likely not be the team that lifts the trophy this season.  Middlesbrough +1600, Port Vale +25000: Middlesbrough and Port Vale are the final 2 teams in the competition and they will get an honorable mention here but realistically, neither team has any chance of winning this competition. Neither of these teams play in the Premier League and the finals of this competition has been dominated by Premier League teams in recent years. Neither team has the depth nor the talent to make it to the finals and they also play each other in this round so 1 of these teams will be getting knocked out anyway before facing the winner of Chelsea vs Newcastle in the next round. Disregard these two sides as neither team has a chance to win.  RecommendationAlthough Fulham could end up making a run to the finals as a dark horse out of sheer focus on the competition, they still do not have the depth and talent as some of these other teams they will have to run into. Liverpool does have the best squad with the most depth to make a run to the finals and since they are playing against weaker competition in Europa League, they will be focused on getting back to the finals since they did win this competition 2 years ago. Chelsea also has the talent and depth to make a run though with the more favorable path to the finals as well and there is a very good chance that the finals will be Liverpool vs Chelsea which would be a rematch of the 2022 finals which Liverpool won. Liverpool at +187 and Chelsea at +333 are the best bets to make for teams to win this competition as those are the 2 teams with the best chance and both teams could end up in the finals leaving bettors with profit no matter who wins it. 

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NBA In-Season Tournament: An ATS Review

by Al McMordie

Thursday, Nov 30, 2023

The NBA's inaugural In-Season Tournament has concluded its Group Play round, wherein each team played four games.  The Knockout round commences next week, with eight teams qualifying.  The games will be played on the higher seed's home court.Let's look at the quarterfinal match-ups for the Knockout round (odds courtesy of DraftKings):Monday, December 4Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers (Celtics -4.5, 236)New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings (Kings -4.5, 232)Tuesday, December 5New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks (Bucks -6.5, 222.5)Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers (Lakers -2, 223.5)Although all eight qualifiers own winning records, they are not the top four teams from each conference.  In the Eastern conference, four of its top six teams made the Knockout round, with the Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers failing to advance.  And in the West, the qualifiers were the conferences #5, #6, #7 and #8 teams, with its top four (Timberwolves, Nuggets, Mavericks, Thunder) failing to reach the quarterfinals.  All eight teams, though, do currently have a winning record.In the Group Play round, a total of 60 games were played.  They broke down, as follows:Home teams:  30-27-3 ATSRoad teams:  27-30-3 ATSFavorites:  26-31-3 ATSUnderdogs:  31-26-3 ATSOvers:  30-30Unders:  30-30Home favorites:  18-19-1 ATSHome underdogs: 12-8-2 ATSRoad favorites: 8-12-2 ATSRoad underdogs:  19-18-1 ATSHome teams off a win:  18-8-1 ATSHome teams off a loss:  12-19-2 ATSRoad teams off a win:  12-16-2 ATSRoad teams off a loss:  15-14-1 ATSOff ATS loss (vs. foes that were not):  17-17-3 ATSOff ATS win (vs. foes that were not):  17-17-3 ATSWinning teams (vs. non-winning teams):  20-10-1 ATSLosing teams (vs. non-losing teams):  11-21-1 ATSRevenge-minded teams:  8-10-1 ATS, including 0-2 ATS with double-revengeTeams playing 3 games in 4 days (vs. foes that were not):  7-1-2 ATSTeams off upset loss (vs. foes that were not):  12-3-1 ATSTeams off upset win (vs. foes that were not): 16-9-1 ATSTeams playing back-to-back home games:  18-10-1 ATSTeams playing back-to-back road games:  12-14-2 ATSFavorites priced from -1 to -3 points:  7-6-2 ATSFavorites priced from -3.5 to -6.5 points:  7-16-1 ATSFavorites priced from -7 to -9.5 points:  7-7 ATSFavorites priced at -10 and higher:  5-2 ATSUnderdogs priced from +1 to +3 points:  6-7-2 ATSUnderdogs priced from +3.5 to +6.5 points:  16-7-1 ATSUnderdogs priced from +7 to +9.5 points:  7-7 ATSUnderdogs priced at +10 and higher:  2-5 ATSO/U Line priced less than 220:  5-7 OverO/U Line priced from 220 to 229.5:  10-16 OverO/U Line priced at 230 and higher:  15-7 OverGood luck, as always...Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NHL, NBA and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 11/30/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Nov 30, 2023

The Thursday sports card features NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action. Week 13 of the NFL regular season kicks off with one game. The Dallas Cowboys host the Seattle Seahawks on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET. The Cowboys are an 8.5-point favorite, with the total set at 47.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. The Cleveland Cavaliers play at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 219.5. Three more NBA games tip off at 7:40 PM ET. The Brooklyn Nets are at home against the Charlotte Hornets as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 227. The Miami Heat host the Indiana Pacers as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 239. The New York Knicks play at home against the Detroit Pistons as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 218.5. Four NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Chicago to play the Bulls as a 7.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 228. The Minnesota Timberwolves are at home against the Utah Jazz as a 10-point favorite with a total of 221.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Los Angeles Lakers as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 229. The Atlanta Hawks play in San Antonio against the Spurs as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 245.5. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the Los Angeles Clippers at 10:10 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227.5. The National Hockey League has 14 games on its slate. Six NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. The Tampa Bay Lightning are at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Seattle Kraken as a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Boston Bruins play at home against the San Jose Sharks as a -470 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Detroit Red Wings are at home against the Chicago Blackhawks as a -225 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Florida Panthers visit Montreal to play the Canadiens as a -225 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The New Jersey Devils plays at Philadelphia against the Flyers as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Carolina Hurricanes host the New York Islanders at 7:37 PM ET as a -192 money-line favorite with a total of 6. Three more NHL games begin at 8:07 PM ET. The Nashville Predators play at home against the Minnesota Wild as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The St. Louis Blues are at home against the Buffalo Sabres as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers play in Winnipeg against the Jets as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two NHL games start at 9:07 PM ET. The Colorado Avalanche are in Arizona to play the Coyotes as a -205 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Dallas Stars play in Calgary against the Flames as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Two more games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 PM ET. The Washington Capitals travel to Anaheim to play the Ducks, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 6. The Vancouver Canucks host the Vegas Golden Knights as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has three games on national television. Florida Atlantic plays at home against Liberty on ESPNU at 6 PM ET as a 7-point favorite with a total of 147. Butler is at home against Texas Tech on FS1 at 6:30 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 139. Creighton plays at Oklahoma State on ESPN2 at 9 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 142. 

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Is Justin Fields Making the Case for the Chicago Bears to Not Draft a Quarterback?

by Team Del Genio

Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

The Minnesota Vikings had been one of the hottest teams in the NFL in the middle of the season going into their clash with the Chicago Bears for Monday Night Football. They had won five games in a row before their narrow 21-20 loss at Denver last week. The Bears had lost three of their last four games and come into this game trailing the Vikings by three games in the NFC North standings. Yet the oddsmakers installed Minnesota as only a field goal or so favorite in this game despite this game being played at the Vikings’ U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings beat the Bears last month by a 19-13 score in the first game between these teams at Soldier Field. The oddsmakers were communicating that if these two teams would play on a neutral field, the point spread difference would be close to a pick ‘em after eliminating the three or so points for home-field advantage. Even when these teams played a month ago, the oddsmakers installed Minnesota as a three-point road favorite, despite a 1-4 record at the time. The Vikings’ victory in that game began their recent five-game winning streak. It was a remarkable point spread with the oddsmakers seeing something the betting public was not, and it was one of the primary reasons we tapped Chicago as our NFC Game of the Month in that game. The Bears pulled the upset, 12-9, to redeem our support.We saw a few intriguing things with Chicago, and it started with the play of Justin Fields who is quietly making a strong statement that he should be a starting quarterback in the league. In his last four games (including the game against Minnesota when he got knocked out of the game with a hand injury that kept him out for four games) before that Monday Night game, Fields had completed 65 of 97 passes for a 67.0% completion percentage. He had nine touchdown passes during that span with only two interceptions. He had passed for 844 yards in those four games with an 8.7 yards per attempt. He had added another 232 yards with a 5.7 yards per carry when running the ball on an average of ten times per game in those four games. He was playing better than the Vikings’ Josh Dobbs. The Bears had a 1-4 record in games decided by one possession including their 31-26 loss on the road at Detroit last week in a game they should have won. Chicago won the first down battle by a 25-23 margin, and they were close to even in yardage (334-338) despite the game being played at Ford Field. They forced four turnovers. The Bears had covered the point spread in four of their last six games after the first month of the season. They were an underrated team.While Chicago won the game, their offense sputtered. The Bears had only 317 yards of offense. They settled for four field goals with three drives stalling inside the Vikings 22-yard line. Fields’ stat line was okay as he completed 27 of 37 passes for 217 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions. He ran the ball another 12 times for 59 yards. Yet he was responsible for both of Chicago’s lost fumbles, with one of them his fault for not protecting himself as a runner.       Fields numbers in his last five games still look pretty good. He has completed 92 of 134 passes for a 68.6% completion percentage. He had passed for 1061 yards in those five games with a 7.9 yards per attempt. He has nine touchdown passes during that span with only two interceptions. He has added another 291 yards with a 5.5 yards per carry when running the ball on an average of ten times per game in those five games. Yet it appears the coaching staff has made the decision that Fields cannot be trusted to make decisions with the football down the field. Facing the Vikings’ defensive coordinator Brian Flores means dealing with the most blitz-dependent defense in the league. In what became a painful-to-watch display, Chicago offensive coordinator Luke Getsy continually dialed up bubble screen after bubble screen to help Fields get the ball out quickly in the face of the potential blitz. Unfortunately for the Bears offense, this tactic became predictable very quickly yet Getsy rarely changed things up. A critic could make the case that Getsy may not be one of the best offensive coordinators in the NFL, yet every offensive coordinator is familiar with a vertical passing game. Perhaps he was directed by head coach Matt Eberflus, but it was clear that Getsy had limited options that he was comfortable with regarding how Fields could handle the blitz. Some of his rushing numbers may be the result of bailing on plays too quickly because he is not processing third or even second reads in the passing game. His early season struggles might be the result of his failure to execute his second or third reads in the passing game. His “fantasy” numbers have improved only because he is giving up on plays to move the ball with his legs again. So, thankfully, the Bears pulled off the victory and our read on the oddsmakers line was correct. Yet it is hard to be optimistic about the future for Fields, at least with Chicago. With the Bears owning Carolina’s first-round pick draft pick, Chicago is poised to have two top-ten draft picks in the spring with that Panthers selection perhaps the prized number one pick in the draft. It is hard to imagine that the Bears would forego the opportunity to choose their favorite quarterback in the college draft pool and stick with a quarterback in Fields who they did not trust to throw the ball downfield with against the Vikings. Chicago could always draft a quarterback while allowing Fields to compete for the starting job. He still shows flashes of brilliance. However, the internal momentum to allow their new rookie quarterback to take the job and run with it will likely be overwhelming, and Fields’ stock will only continue to fall. Trading  Fields away sooner rather than later would probably bring back the most value, given how these events are likely to shake out. Good luck - TDG.   

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Early Look at Big Ten Basketball

by Nelly's Sports

Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

Early Look at Big Ten Basketball  A taste of conference season in college basketball comes in early December in the Big Ten with most teams playing two early season non-conference games before a break for finals and the holidays ahead of the resumption of conference play in early January. Here is a look at how a five of the Big Ten teams have performed and what to expect in the first Big Ten conference action of the season.  The Favorite – Purdue: The Boilermakers are on a season of redemption after last season’s early NCAA tournament exit and the start could not be more impressive, sweeping three high-profile games in Hawaii against Gonzaga, Tennessee, and Marquette over Thanksgiving week. Purdue is +150 to win the Big Ten as a clear favorite in the conference after winning the league by three games last season going 15-5. One of those losses was at Northwestern, where the Boilermakers head on December 1 for their Big Ten opener. Purdue will also host Iowa December 4 looking to start the conference season 2-0 before heavyweight non-conference games vs. Alabama and Arizona in mid-December.   Prove It Game – Wisconsin at Michigan State: After missing the NCAA Tournament last season, Wisconsin and head coach Greg Gard are in line for an important season. The Badgers have had mixed results in the non-conference season, losing to Tennessee and Providence but defeating Virginia and SMU. A big home test is this weekend hosting Marquette before the Big Ten opener in East Lansing. Wisconsin plays only one December Big Ten game and will play at Arizona the following weekend for a grueling run on the schedule. The Badgers have good returning experience while St. John’s transfer AJ Storr and freshman John Blackwell have been impressive additions as Wisconsin looks capable of climbing back to the top tier of the conference, but they need to prove it with at least one big win in December.   Breakthrough Team - Nebraska: Nebraska hasn’t had a winning season since going 19-17 under Tim Miles in 2018-19 and last made the NCAA Tournament in 2014. It has been a slow climb, but Fred Hoiberg’s team has improved in record every season since he took over, going 2-18 in Big Ten play in his first season in Lincoln through turning in a competitive 9-11 conference run last season. This year’s team is already 7-0 in non-conference play and grades as a top 50 caliber team by many measures for the first time in many years. The schedule so far has been very light however as the best win came narrowly at home over Duquesne while Nebraska has only one win away form home. In the first two weeks of December Nebraska has a non-conference test vs. Creighton before a winnable Big Ten opener at Minnesota. The Cornhuskers then host Michigan State before another tough non-conference game at Kansas State as this will be a big two-week stretch for the program to deliver a few wins to help deliver a breakthrough season.  Transition Team – Penn State: Stepping into a tough situation, Micah Shrewsberry did a great job at Penn State for two seasons and the Nittany Lions made a nice run last March, making the Big Ten tournament final and then winning a NCAA Tournament game. The success led Shrewsberry to take over at Notre Dame and Penn State hired VCU head coach Mike Rhoades. A 4-0 start through a light path has soured on this year’s team, a group that has almost no returning experience from last season. Against three top 100 teams in tournament action in Florida Penn State went 0-3, allowing 89, 88, and 86 points, including bitterly losing by double-digits against the VCU team Rhoades used to coach. Penn State has a pair of tricky December games in Big Ten play, opening at Maryland and then hosting Ohio State with getting a split likely important towards a chance at a successful season.  The Sleeper – Illinois: The resume isn’t there for Illinois right now as the 5-1 start doesn’t include a top 100 win, but the Illini looked the part in a seven-point home loss to highly-ranked Marquette. The defense has brilliant numbers as one of the nation’s leaders in many important categories featuring impressive height and tremendous depth and experience. Transfers Marcus Domask (Southern Illinois) and Quincy Guerrier (Oregon) have joined Terrance Shannon, Ty Rodgers, and Luke Goode for a quality lineup and the Illini should get Coleman Hawkins and Niccolo Moretti back from injury at some point this season. Illinois has only one early season Big Ten game playing at Rutgers next weekend for a game the team likely needs to prove legitimate in this race. Illinois will then get non-conference tests vs. Florida Atlantic and Tennessee as a squad that could be a threat to make a run in the Big Ten race, while looking for a fourth straight NCAA Tournament trip for Brad Underwood. Illinois won a share of the conference title two seasons ago before finishing sixth last season but is currently listed third in the marketplace behind Purdue and Michigan State. 

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Early Look at ACC Basketball

by Nelly's Sports

Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

Early Look at ACC Basketball  A preview of conference season in college basketball comes in early December in the ACC, with most teams playing one early season non-conference game before a break for finals and the holidays ahead of the resumption of conference play in early January. Here is a quick snapshot of five of the ACC teams in action and what to expect in the first conference games of the season in the ACC.  The Favorite – Duke: Replacing a legendary coach is not an easy task and John Scheyer’s first season leading Duke featured 27 wins and an ACC tournament title. Duke lost to Tennessee in the Round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament in a difficult 4/5 game, however. The Blue Devils often cycle through NBA prospects, but this year’s team returns a great deal of last season’s production with Kyle Filipowski, Mark Mitchell, Tyrese Proctor, and Jeremy Roach all back in action alongside four talented freshmen additions. Duke split big early tests losing to Arizona and defeating Michigan State and will be favored to start 1-0 in ACC play playing at Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils have a rather favorable early season ACC schedule before what could be a challenging February and March.   Prove It Game – Pittsburgh vs. Clemson: Pittsburgh basketball was a regular force in the 2000s under Jamie Dixon, but the program hit a tough patch and returned to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016 last season. Now in his sixth season at Pittsburgh, Jeff Capel has been given time to build the program back up, delivering a 24-12 season in 2022-23 that included a 14-6 ACC record. The Panthers barely made the field as a First Four #11 seed but won that game and then beat Iowa State in the Round of 64 for a successful run. Only two starters return this season led by Blake Hinson, but transfer Ishmael Leggett (Rhode Island) has stepped into a big role while Carlton Carrington could be one of the top freshmen in the ACC. A 5-2 start has featured losses in both major conference tests vs. a pair of SEC teams and Pittsburgh needs to take care of business at home in the ACC opener vs. a good Clemson team to be taken seriously an ACC threat again this season.  Breakthrough Team – Virgina Tech: When Mike Young was hired at Virginia Tech it was considered a great pick-up for the program that had performed well under Buzz Williams. Young had been very successful at Wofford, and it seemed like his system would work well in the ACC. Young’s teams have been steady but his ACC results have been marginal, outside of going 9-4 in the abbreviated 2020-21 season. Young’s only career NCAA Tournament win was at Wofford as the Hokies lost in the Round of 64 in 2021 and 2022, with the 2022 appearance only granted by a surprise run to win the ACC Tournament. Last season’s team was a great disappointment, going just 19-15 overall and just 8-12 in ACC play despite looking like a higher quality team in an 11-1 start and picking up high-profile wins over North Carolina, Duke, and Virginia early in the ACC season. This year’s team has experience and continuity from last season and while the team ran out of gas in its third tournament game in Florida last week, losing badly to Florida Atlantic, wins over Boise State and Iowa State have provided a solid non-conference base. If the 3-point shooting numbers improve slightly towards the typical levels of Young’s teams, this could be a very competitive team in ACC play.  Transition Team – Georgia Tech: Josh Pastner was once considered one of the great up-and-coming coaches as an assistant with Arizona. His seven years at Memphis delivered a few highlights but his seven seasons at Georgia Tech were a great disappointment, only making the NCAA Tournament in the shortened 2020-21 season. The program moved on after last season and brought in a high-profile hire in former NBA star Damon Stoudamire who coached at Pacific for five seasons before returning to the NBA as an assistant with Boston the past two years. The hire did allow the Yellow Jackets to keep a few quality players from last season’s team, notably Miles Kelly and Kyle Sturdivant while a mix of transfers also gives the roster a solid group with good size and experience. So far this season the results have been mixed with an unfortunate loss to Mass-Lowell while blown out at Cincinnati, but last week Georgia Tech beat Mississippi State. The transition for the Yellow Jackets gets a major test this week hosting Duke in the ACC opener.   The Sleeper – Clemson: Brad Brownell has been at Clemson since 2010-11 for rare longevity in today’s era of college basketball. The Tigers made the Sweet 16 in 2018 but haven’t won a tournament game in any other season, only making the field two other times as the administration has been incredibly patient. In fairness, last season’s 14-6 squad had a legitimate gripe about being a bubble casualty as finishing tied for 2nd in the ACC and not making the tournament was a rare occurrence. Four of this year’s starters were on that team including PJ Hall and Chase Hunter who are all-ACC caliber players. Syracuse transfer Joseph Girard is also a great addition and all three of those players have hit over 40 percent from 3-point range so far this season. There is great size, depth, and experience on this group and the 6-0 non-conference start has been impressive, facing only one team outside the nation’s top 150 and capping off the strong November with a road win at Alabama this week. Brownell teams are usually very good defensively but have been marginal on offense in recent years. This year’s team has been a great outside shooting team and is a group that has the chance to reward Clemson’s wait for Brownell to elevate the program to a big postseason run. 

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College Football 2023-24 Preview, Part Five -- 133 Questions and Thoughts for 133 FBS Teams

by Hollywood Sports

Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

For the 13th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each FBS team takes about 30 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.AKRON: Is the improvement in the second half of the season under first-year head coach Joe Moorhead sustainable heading into his second season? After generating only 4.9 Yards-Per-Play in their first nine games, the Zips averaged 5.7 YPP in their last three contests. On defense, Akron limited their final three opponents to 4.3 YPP after surrendering 6.6 YPP in their first nine games. Despite a 1-7 record in the Mid-American Conference, the Zips outgained their opponents by +41 net Yards-Per-Game — and they outgained their conference rivals by +109 YPG in their last three contests. Turnovers played a large role in holding them back as they ranked tied for third in the FBS with a -13 net turnover margin. They had a 1-5 record in games decided by one scoring possession. Moorehead has 15 starters back from that group. ARMY: How successful will the Black Knights transition to a zone option offensive attack out of the shotgun formation? Head coach Jeff Monken is abandoning the triple option formation that has defined the offensive identity of the service academies after the recent change in the cut-blocking rules has hampered the effectiveness of the triple option scheme. Army’s scoring average fell from 32.8 Points-Per-Game to 28.6 PPG last season after that rule change. While the Black Knights finished the season with a 6-6 record, two of their victories were against FCS teams and two more of their wins were against the lowly Massachusetts and Connecticut. BALL STATE: Was the Cardinals’Mid-American Conference championship in 2020 simply an aberration in the unusual COVID-impacted season? Under head coach Mike Neu, Ball State had six straight losing seasons before that breakout campaign — but they have not had a winning season since with an 11-14 record overall and a 7-9 conference mark in the last two years. Neu is on the hot seat with just the one winning season in his previous seven years as the Cardinals head coach. Fourteen starters are back from the group that finished 5-7 last year — but they lost some of their best players. Quarterback John Paddock transferred to Illinois while running back Carson Steele left for UCLA. They lost their top two receivers to graduation — and they are replacing three defensive backs who are now on NFL rosters. BOSTON COLLEGE: Did head coach Jeff Hafley learn the wrong lessons after some initial success using the transfer portal? The former Ohio State defensive coordinator landed quarterback Phil Jurkovec as a transfer from Notre Dame in his first season with the Eagles. But after some initial success with the portal, Hafley may have sacrificed the culture of his program as now more players are leaving than he is bringing in as he enters his fourth season. Hafley was likely too dependent on the portal to offer some quick fixes as the recruiting classes from the high school ranks have waned. After a 3-9 season where they finished 2-6 in conference play with ACC opponents outgaining them by -81.6 net Yards-Per-Game, Hafley is on the hot seat. BOWLING GREEN: Will the Falcons continue to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the nation? Last year, they upset Marshall but got upset by Eastern Kentucky and beaten by Ohio by 24 points. They were also fortunate in an upset victory against a Toledo team using a backup quarterback looking ahead to the MAC Championship Game.  How do we judge a team that was 5-2 in games decided by one scoring possession while pulling off four upset victories but getting upset twice themselves along the way? Head coach Scott Loeffler has 13 starters back from that group that finished 6-7 overall but 5-3 in the conference. BUFFALO: Why did this program not bring in a single transfer from an FBS program while losing several players — is that a sign that third-year head coach Maurice Linguist is comfortable with the roster and culture he is building or is it a harbinger that this team is going to take a step back from their 7-6 campaign last year? I thought Linguist had been doing a great job using the transfer portal to bring in Power Five conference players to fill holes in the starting lineup on both sides of the ball — so the lack of activity was surprising.  The Bulls bring back only ten starters from last year’s team that beat Georgia Southern by a 23-21 score in the Camellia Bowl.COLORADO STATE: Can the Rams make another jump in head coach Jay Norvell’s second season as they did in the second half of last year? Norvell brought 11 players with him last season when he left Nevada after five seasons -- but he was down to only 59 scholarship players at one point last year after cleaning house. In their first six games, they only averaged 243.7 Yards-Per-Game. But the team eventually bought in to his expectations and the teaching of the coaching staff as the Rams outgained their last four opponents by +76 Yards-Per-Game despite a 3-9 overall record. The offense improved to 324.2 total YPG in their last six games while the defense held their Mountain West Conference opponents to 20 Points-Per-Game and just 325 YPG. Now after signing perhaps the best freshman class in program history, Norvell is back up to 85 scholarship players — and 15 starters return. BOSTON COLLEGE: Did head coach Jeff Hafley learn the wrong lessons after some initial success using the transfer portal? The former Ohio State defensive coordinator landed quarterback Phil Jurkovec as a transfer from Notre Dame in his first season with the Eagles. But after some initial success with the portal, Hafley may have sacrificed the culture of his program as now more players are leaving than he is bringing in as he enters his fourth season. Hafley was likely too dependent on the portal to offer some quick fixes as the recruiting classes from the high school ranks have waned. After a 3-9 season where they finished 2-6 in conference play with ACC opponents outgaining them by -81.6 net Yards-Per-Game, Hafley is on the hot seat.EASTERN MICHIGAN: Can the Eagles continue to overachieve under head coach Chris Creighton? Eastern Michigan got outgained in Mid-American Conference play by -9.0 Yards-Per-Game but still posted a 5-3 conference record. They pulled off five upset wins — and they had a 4-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession which helped them finish 9-4 with their second bowl victory in program history in their 41-27 victory against San Jose State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Critics can continue to claim these are outlier results but the Eagles have pulled off 22 upset victories in the last six seasons. Entering his tenth year as head coach, Eastern Michigan has seen 53 of their last 73 games decided by one scoring possession.   IOWA STATE: Does the Cyclones’ recent inability to win close games due for regression — or is it systemic a deeper problem inside head coach Matt Campbell’s program? Iowa State has lost 10 of their last 11 games decided by one scoring possession. They had a 1-6 record in one-score games last season. They finished the year with a 4-8 record despite outgaining their opponents by +84 net Yards-Per-Game — and in Big 12 play, they had a 1-8 record despite ranking sixth in the conference by outgaining their opponents by +52 net YPG. Turnovers played a role in holding them back as did an inefficient offense inside the Red Zone. But the lack of athleticism on the roster may simply get exposed at key moments of the game. After seven years, perhaps Campbell and his coaching staff deserve credit for an overachieving roster — but without NFL talent like quarterback Brock Purdy and running back Breece Hall (and David Montgomery before him), the talent simply isn’t there to execute against the better teams in the Big 12.       NORTHERN ILLINOIS: Did the Huskies underachieve last season — or is inconsistency seemingly the consistent characteristic for this team under head coach Thomas Hammock? After a 5-7 season in his first year with the program,  Northern Illinois was 0-6 in the COVID 2020 season. They responded by winning the Mid-American Conference championship in 2021 before taking a few steps back last year with a 3-9 record despite returning 18 starters. Hammock can point to the slew of injuries his team suffered. And despite a 2-6 record in conference play, they were only outgained by -2.0 net Yards-Per-Game. The Huskies got upset six times and lost four of their six games decided by one scoring possession. Fifteen starters return including seventh-year senior Rocky Lombardi who quarterbacked their title run two years ago.         NORTH TEXAS: Did the powers at be at North Texas push the panic button too soon when firing head coach Sean Littrell despite him leading the Mean Green to the Conference USA Championship Game? After their 48-27 loss on the road against UTSA in that contest, Littrell was let go with critics citing his 0-5 record in bowl games. But remember that he inherited a 1-11 team that had not played in a bowl game since 2014 — and he got them to six bowl games in his seven years with the program. Now as the team leaves Conference USA for the most difficult American Athletic Conference, they bring in a rookie head coach at the FBS level in Eric Morris. The Mike Leach disciple was the offensive coordinator at Washington State last season after a successful four-year run as the head coach at Incarnate Word. Fifteen starters return from last year’s team — and they brought in junior quarterback Chandler Rogers from UL-Monroe in the transfer portal. But what are the expectations in Denton for this football team — and are they reasonable?  SOUTH FLORIDA: Is the challenge for this program too big for rookie head coach Alex Goresh? The Bulls have won only four games in the last three seasons after their 1-11 campaign last season. They have a 1-33 record against FBS programs since 2019. Not only were they winless in their eight games against American Athletic Conference foes last season, but they got outgained by -116 Yards-Per-Game in those contests. Goresh comes in from Tennessee after serving as the offensive coordinator the last two seasons (albeit with the Volunteers’ head coach Josh Huepel calling the plays). Thirteen starters return from last year’s team but only four on the offensive side of the ball in a unit that was hit hard in the transfer market. The defense has nine starters back plus another 11 transfers in an attempt to upgrade the talent to a unit that ranked 130th in the nation by allowing 516.6 YPG.                       TCU: The Horned Frogs were a great story last year as they took on the role of Cinderella to reach the National Championship Game under first-year head coach Sonny Dykes — before harsh reality set in when facing the reigning National Champion Georgia Bulldogs. Dykes was masterful in using the transfer portal last season — but is it simply too much to ask for him to pull off that trick again given all the losses this team has experienced since that 65-7 loss to Georgia? The Horned Frogs return only 10 starters after losing eight players to the NFL draft and another three players to the NFL as undrafted free agents. The team also lost their brilliant offensive coordinator Garrett Riley to the same job at Clemson. Dykes is recruiting the State of Texas well — and he seems to be winning with the transfer portal. But the losses may be simply overwhelming for a team whose magical run included a 6-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession.  TOLEDO: Will the Rockets’ Mid-American Conference championship last year open the doors for them to begin consistently dominating the conference? Granted, that was the second MAC title in head coach Jason Candle’s seven seasons with the program — but there has been a sentiment that he has underachieved relative to the quality of his recruiting classes during his tenure that have usually been the top of the league. Toledo reached the MAC Championship Game to then beat Ohio by a 17-7 score despite four of their losses being by seven points or less — with three of those losses in conference play. Critics of Candle will point to four upset losses as continuing evidence that his teams too often fall flat. TROY: Is regression all but inevitable for the Trojans after a 12-2 campaign where they beat Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game before an 18-12 victory against UTSA in the Cure Bowl? Under first-year head coach Jon Sumrall, Troy posted a 6-1 record in games decided by one possession or less — and they pulled off four upset wins. Only 12 starters return from that team with the defense replacing five of their top eight tacklers along with defensive coordinator Shiel Wood who took the same job at Tulane. But nine of the 16 players who took at least 300 snaps are back this season — and the offense will once again be led by senior quarterback Gunnar Watson and All-Sun Belt Conference running back Kimani Vidal.  UL-LAFAYETTE: Was their 6-7 campaign under first-year head coach Mike Desmormeaux a blip on the radar a blip or a sign of things to come after their previous head coach Billy Napier left to take the Florida job? The Ragin’ Cajuns did outgain their Sun Belt Conference opponents by +36 Yards-Per-Game despite a 4-4 mark in conference play. They lost all four of their games decided by one scoring possession including a 23-16 loss to Houston in the Independence Bowl. However, the roster is bleeding players away in the transfer portal on both sides of the ball — including two starters on defense after spring practice. UTSA: How will the Roadrunners adjust to the upgrade in competition in their move from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference? They come off a Conference USA title after completing their perfect 8-0 conference record with a 48-27 victory against North Texas in the conference championship game. UTSA has won 20 of their last 23 games against Conference USA opponents — but they are just 11-7 in their last 18 games against teams outside that conference. They have lost ten games in a row against ranked opponents. Sixteen starters return this season including their quarterback Frank Harris who will be playing in his seventh year with the program. He leads an offense that ranked 12th in the nation last year by generating 476.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The defense has eight starters and 11 players back that logged in 300 or more snaps last season. VIRGINIA: Is the jury out already on second-year head coach Tony Elliott? The longtime Clemson offensive coordinator struggled in his first season with the Cavaliers with a 3-7 record — and now he is dealing with a host of challenges on and off the field. Elliott lacked a professional demeanor by ripping his assistant coaches in post-game press conferences as the team lost six of their final seven games. Certainly, the decision to cut their season short after the gun shooting tragedy on campus that directly impacted the team then complicated matters. Virginia seems to be losing in the transfer portal market. Senior quarterback Brennan Armstrong left for North Carolina State — and Elliott brought in Tony Muskett from Monmouth as his replacement. Replacing a veteran QB who has led the nation since 2019 by averaging 436.1 total Yards-Per-Game against FBS opponents with a QB from the FCS level seems to be a downgrade. Given all this, can Elliott learn from his mistakes and regroup to lead this inexperienced team?                                                             WAKE FOREST: Is the Demon Deacons’ seven-game bowl streak in jeopardy this year in the tenth season under head coach Dave Clawson? Only 11 starters return from the group that finished 8-5 with a 27-17 victory against Missouri in the Outback Bowl. The offense lost four-year starting quarterback Sam Hartman with his decision to transfer to Notre Dame. Six starters are back from a defensive unit whose numbers look better due to holding Army and VMI to ten points apiece. The Demon Deacons still ranked 81st in the nation by allowing 28.3 Points-Per-Game — and they ranked 92nd in the FBS by giving up 406.5 total Yards-Per-Game. They allowed 30 or more points seven times. WESTERN MICHIGAN: How steep a climb does first-year head coach Lance Taylor face with the Broncos firing head coach Tim Lester after the program’s first losing season scene 2013? Last year’s team finished 5-7 overall with a 4-4 record in the Mid-American Conference but got outgained by -28 Yards-Per-Game against conference opponents. It was the decline of the production on offense that may have done Lester in despite his 37-32 record in his six seasons with the program. The Broncos ranked 124th in the nation by averaging only 301.9 total Yards-Per-Game. They also ranked 118th in the FBS by scoring 19.0 Points-Per-Game — and they scored 21 points or less in nine of their 12 games. Taylor was Louisville’s offensive coordinator last year but he may need some time to rebuild this offense since the quarterback room again features second-year freshman Treyson Bourguet and redshirt sophomore Jack Salopek. The offense completed only 49.9% of their passes last year. The coaching change led to an exodus of players leaving the program in the transfer portal including 1000-yard running back Sean Tyler and leading receiver Corey Crooms who both joined former Western Michigan head coach P.J. Fleck at Minnesota. Linebacker Ryan Selig also left for Minnesota -- leaving the defense with only two returning starters and just three of the 12 players that logged in 250 or more snaps last year.  Best of luck — Frank.

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NFL Top 10 Poll - Week 13

by Wayne Root

Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023

Twelve weeks into the 2023 NFL season, we're finding out how much we don't know about the league. A month ago, the Denver Broncos would have been out. The Green Bay Packers are now surging as well. The Buffalo Bills are .500 and San Francisco shows that a team can lose three games in a row and still be Number 1. Additionally, we had our second in-season head coach firing of 2023.   That's not even half of the happenings in Week 12 alone. The NFL may be many things. Boring ain't one of them. 1. San Francisco (8-3) After a three-game skid, the 49ers have returned to their old ways. They are consistently playing great football on both sides. Christian McCaffrey rushed for 114 yards and two touchdowns in the first half as the 49ers jumped out to a 21-point halftime lead and cruised to a 31-13 win against the Seahawks. The 49ers have won 10 straight against NFC West opponents and three straight overall to put a three-game losing streak in the distance. If Brock Purdy can be a game manager and not turn the ball over, then the 49ers might be ready to take on the Eagles for the best of the NFC. Luckily, we get to find out this week when the two NFC Juggernauts face off in Philadelphia. 2. Philadelphia (10-1) In some late-game heroics, the Eagles remained the NFL's only one-loss team. Never underestimate the value of a great kicker. Jake Elliott’s game-tying 59-yarder through the rain tied the score with 20 seconds left in regulation, and Jalen Hurts capped a five-touchdown day (three passing, two rushing) with a 12-yard scramble to the end zone to seal a 37-34 overtime win against the Bills. The Eagles overcame a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit. The Bills could not capitalize when they had opportunities and it ended up biting them in the rear end. Philadelphia continues to show that they are a top 1 or 2 team in the NFL, even if they have a coach who acts like a middle schooler at the helm. 3. Kansas City (8-3) The Chiefs looked more like themselves this week against the Raiders. While the Raiders are not a great team, they have been playing good football ever since they parted ways with Josh McDaniels. Kansas City had a slow start, but unlike in recent weeks, they were able to put points on the scoreboard in the second half. After not scoring in the second half for three straight games, the Chiefs scored 17 to break a halftime tie in a 31-17 win against the Raiders. All of it was needed, too, after falling into a 14-0 hole giving renewed Raiders faithful hope. The the Chiefs defense stepped up. The Chiefs have held 11 straight opponents to 24 points or fewer. Isiah Pacheco rushed for two touchdowns. If this version of the Chiefs is what we get the rest of the year, they could be a tough team to beat in the playoffs, especially if the AFC still runs through Arrowhead. 4. Baltimore (9-3) The Ravens are somewhat gimmicky, but they have found consistent success on both sides of the ball this season. There is a reason that they are atop the AFC by a half-game. They have, unlike the Chiefs on a consistent basis, executed. They are not as talented as the other teams in their tier, but they are all consistently on the same page and therefore win big games. The well-traveled Jadeveon Clowney is playing like a former No. 1 overall draft pick, culminating with a key strip-sack takeaway that kept fourth-quarter points off the board in a 20-10 victory against the Chargers. Rookie Zay Flowers scored both touchdowns, icing the game with 96 seconds to go. The Ravens have led entering the fourth quarter in all 12 games. I think the Mark Andrews injury will probably haunt them against really good defenses, but they beat the Chargers in a tight matchup. 5. Dallas (8-3) Okay, okay, okay. I know that the Cowboys won and that they have talent all over the field, but they will forever be a team that I am willing to allow other teams to jump over because they have not beaten anyone with a winning record… for the time being. How is that possible? A 25-point fourth-quarter explosion turned a close game into a 45-10 blowout against the Commanders. Dak Prescott threw for 331 yards and had multiple touchdown passes for the fifth straight game. DaRon Bland set a NFL single-season record with his fifth interception return for a touchdown. The Cowboys have won 13 straight at home — their longest streak in 42 years. I don't know if the Cowboys are ready or battle-tested for what the NFC playoff picture could show them in the coming weeks. 6. Detroit (8-3)   Although the score does not show it, this week's game against the Packers was never really a competition. The Lions started slowly and they never really got into the game. The Lions dropped their seventh straight Thanksgiving game, losing 29-22 to the Packers. Converting just 1 of 5 fourth-down tries didn’t help the cause. Especially the failed fake punt from their own 23-yard line that led to an easy touchdown. Jared Goff fumbled a career-high three times, one of which was returned for a defensive touchdown. We could either chalk it up to the "Thanksgiving curse" or we can say that the Lions are vulnerable, especially on defense. I personally feel there’s only one way for the Lions to move and that’s down. They better torch the Saints this week as a test to let the NFC and their fans know.  7. Jacksonville (8-3) In a tight AFC South matchup, the Jags snuck out a win over the up-and-coming Texans in Houston. Jacksonville has found some great success with Calvin Ridley in the last few weeks and is beginning to find a new kind of offensive rhythm. Trevor Lawrence threw for 364 yards and accounted for two touchdowns as the Jaguars improved to 6-0 away from home and avenged an earlier loss to the Texans by winning, 24-21, in Houston. Brandon McManus made 3 of 4 field goals while counterpart Matt Ammendola missed both his attempts, including a would-be, game-tying, 58-yarder in the final minute. Their adaptability and talent level could make them a difficult team to beat down the stretch.  8. Miami (8-3)  The Dolphins, like the Cowboys, are a team that struggles to beat the upper-echelon of NFL teams. They have some tremendous talent on both sides of the ball, but they have just not been able to come away with wins in tough matchups. This week they thumped the Jets, but who hasn't? Jevon Holland returned a Hail Mary interception 99 yards the other way for one of the craziest touchdowns in NFL history — the most memorable moment of a 34-13 win against the Jets in the inaugural “Black Friday” game. Raheem Mostert ran for two touchdowns to offset two interceptions thrown by Tua Tagovailoa. This week they should beat up on the Commanders and we’ll still know very little.  9. Pittsburgh (7-4)  The Steelers are forever confusing. They are tough defensively most of the time, but the offense has been abysmal. Last Sunday however, the Steelers posted their first 400-yard game of the season, just days after parting ways with former offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Coincidence? I think not. In their first game since firing offensive coordinator Canada, the Steelers snapped a 58-game streak of not gaining 400 yards by tallying 421 in a 16-10 win against the Bengals. Najee Harris scored a touchdown, and Chris Boswell kicked three field goals. The defense sacked Jake Browning four times in his first career NFL start. If this version of the Steelers is for real, they could be a viable contender for the division. That and they still have their defense and a great Coach.   10. Cleveland (7-4)  Everyone knows that the Browns have a great defense. What we still don't know is what is going to happen with the quarterback situation in Cleveland. For all the success the Cleveland Browns have had in the face of adversity, at some point all the injuries were just going to be too much to overcome. What the Browns have accomplished without their starting quarterback (Deshaun Watson) and best offensive player (running back Nick Chubb) is impressive. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been almost serviceable, but it is clear that they need more. Do they turn to Joe Flacco or do they just hope for the best with a rookie? What they do will be a huge indicator of what is to come. Their defense is what wins games in December.   

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