Articles

NHL Futures at the All-Star Break

by Sean Murphy

Friday, Feb 04, 2022

The NHL All-Star break is upon us. It was previously expected to be a much longer break with NHL players slated to head to Beijing for the Olympic Winter Games but hopes of that best-on-best tournament were dashed by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. The break is an ideal time to take stock of the NHL Stanley Cup futures odds. Here are three teams outside the upper-echelon (top five favorites) to consider. Odds listed are courtesy of DraftKings.Calgary Flames (+3000)This might be my favorite Stanley Cup futures play of the bunch right now. The Flames had a number of earlier postponements that leave them with at least four games in hand on the rest of the teams they're currently looking up at in the Pacific Division (Calgary sits in fourth place). They're only three points behind both the Kings and Ducks and will certainly want to make up that ground in an effort to avoid a potential first round playoff date with the Golden Knights. While injuries and Covid-related absences have certainly played a role, Vegas hasn't been nearly as consistent as in past years', perhaps leaving the door open for one of the other Pacific Division playoff teams to ultimately advance out of the division stage of the postseason. My bet is on Calgary to be that team as it boasts plenty of offensive firepower, a capable defense corps, not to mention one of the most underrated goaltenders in the NHL in Jakob Markstrom. Expect the Flames to be 'buyers' leading up to the trade deadline. A couple of savvy moves could further improve their chances of making a deep playoff run. BONUS TIP: Bet the Flames to win the Pacific Division at +200.Minnesota Wild (+1700)If you're backing the Wild, you're likely making the assumption that they'll also be active on the trade market leading up to the deadline next month. There are some holes to fill but when Minnesota is at the top of its game, it ranks among the best in the entire league. The biggest problem for the Wild is that they find themselves in the same division as the mighty Colorado Avalanche - the favorite to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup. We did see the Wild go on the road and take the Avs to a shootout on Martin Luther King Day. It's also not outside the realm of possibility that we see Minnesota overtake Colorado for top spot in the division, currently sitting nine points back, but with three games in hand. The biggest question mark on the entire Wild roster might be whether or not the goaltending tandem of Cam Talbot and Kaapo Kahkonen is capable of shouldering the load. Kahkonen has actually been the more consistent goalie lately, although Talbot did show signs of turning the corner prior to the break, returning from an extended absence to allow just three goals on 72 shots in three appearances - all Wild victories. BONUS TIP: Bet the Wild to win the Central Division at +200.Carolina Hurricanes (+1300)Carolina has been on the cusp of greatness for a number of years but has never been able to get over the hump. The Canes are right there as a top contender in the Eastern Conference again this season, currently pacing the Metropolitan Division (they're actually tied with the Rangers but own the tie-breaker on wins and have five games in hand). The beauty of residing in the Metropolitan is that you avoid a potential matchup with the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning until the Conference Final. While the Lightning, Panthers, Leafs and Bruins battle it out in what is likely to be two grueling playoff rounds, the Canes will likely be contending with two-of-three of the Rangers, Penguins and Capitals - all opponents that Carolina can handle in my opinion. Few teams can match the Canes depth up front or on the blue line - we've seen that depth shine through as they had a number of key contributors out of the lineup for extended periods due to Covid protocols earlier this season. The addition of Frederik Andersen in goal could prove to be the biggest difference-maker come playoff time but he'll need to prove he can get it done in the postseason after a number of disappointing previous results with the seemingly cursed Maple Leafs.BONUS TIP: Bet the Hurricanes to win the Eastern Conference at +650.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/04/2022

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Feb 04, 2022

The Thursday sports card features NBA and NCAAB action.Nine games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Three games tip-off the card at 7:10 PM ET. Charlotte hosts Cleveland as a 4.5-point favorite (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Boston visits Detroit as a 7.5-point road favorite. Chicago plays at Indiana as a 2-point road favorite. Toronto is at home against Atlanta at 7:40 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite. San Antonio plays at home against Houston at 8:40 PM ET as a 3-point favorite. Two NBA games start at 9:10 PM ET. Utah hosts Brooklyn as a 5.5-point favorite. Denver is at home against New Orleans as a 5.5-point favorite. Two more NBA games conclude the card at 10:10 PM ET. Portland plays at home against Oklahoma City as a 7.5-point favorite, with BetRivers setting the total at 214.Dallas is at home against Philadelphia on ESPN at 10:10 PM ET. The Mavericks are on a two-game losing streak after their 120-114 upset loss to Oklahoma City as a 12-point favorite on Wednesday. The Mavericks’ record fell to 29-23 with the loss. The 76ers had their five-game winning streak end with their 106-103 upset loss to Washington as a 10.5-point favorite on Wednesday. Philadelphia has a 31-20 record after the setback. Dallas is a 1-point favorite. Eight games are on national television in college basketball. Yale hosts Dartmouth on ESPNU at 5 PM ET. The Bulldogs won their second-straight game with their 80-74 upset win at Princeton as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday. They improved their record to 10-9 with the win. The Big Green ended their three-game losing streak with their 76-63 victory at Columbia as a 5.5-point favorite on Saturday. Their record raised to 5-12 with the triumph. Yale is an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. Richmond is at home against St. Bonaventure on ESPN2 at 6 PM ET. The Spiders won their fourth game in their last five with their 74-57 victory at Duquesne as a 7-point favorite on Tuesday. They improved to 14-8 with the win. The Bonnies lost their second game in their last three with an 81-76 upset loss to Davidson as a 2.5-point favorite on Tuesday. St. Bonaventure’s record fell to 12-6 with the defeat. Richmond is a 3-point favorite with a total of 140.5. Akron plays at home against Miami (OH) on the CBS Sports Network at 6:30 PM ET. The Zips’ four-game winning streak ended with an 84-76 loss at Toledo as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday. Their record fell to 12-6 with the defeat. The RedHawks have lost three in a row after their 78-65 loss to Kent State as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Miami (OH) has a 9-11 record. Akron is a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. Seton Hall hosts Creighton on FS1 at 7 PM ET in a battle of Big East teams with identical 13-7 records. The Pirates ended their two-game losing streak with a 70-63 win at Georgetown as a 7-point favorite on Tuesday. The Bluejays ended their two-game losing streak with their upset win at 59-55 at UConn as a 10-point underdog on Tuesday. Seton Hall is a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 137. Saint Peter’s is at home against Quinnipiac on ESPNU at 7 PM ET. The Peacocks had their two-game winning streak end with an 85-77 loss at Iona as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. Their record dropped to 9-8 with the setback. The Bobcats lost their second game in their last three games with an 85-76 loss at Siena as a 2-point underdog on Sunday. Their record fell to 11-8 with the defeat. Saint Peter’s is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. Toledo travels to Ball State on ESPN at 9 PM ET. The Rockets are on a nine-game winning streak with their 89-66 victory at Eastern Michigan as a 10-point favorite on Tuesday. Their record improved to 18-4 with the win. The Cardinals had their three-game winning streak end with an 87-63 loss at Ohio as a 12.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Ball State’s record dropped to 10-11 with the defeat. Toledo is a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 154.5. Colorado State plays at home against San Diego State on FS1 at 9 PM ET. The Rams dropped their second-straight game with an 84-78 upset loss as a 1.5-point favorite on Monday. Their record fell to 16-3 with the losses. The Aztecs won their second game in their last three with their 72-47 victory against New Mexico as a 15-point favorite on Monday. They improved their record to 12-5 with the win. Colorado State is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 131.5. Fresno State hosts Nevada on FS1 at 11 PM ET. The Bulldogs won their second game in their last three with a 73-43 victory at San Jose State as an 11.5-point favorite on Tuesday. They improved their record to 17-6 with the win. The Wolf Pack are on a three-game losing streak after a 69-58 loss at UNLV as a 1.5-point underdog on Tuesday. Nevada’s record is now 9-10. Fresno State is a 9-point favorite with a total of 131.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/03/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Feb 03, 2022

The Thursday sports card features NBA and NCAAB action.Six games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. The card tips off at 7:10 PM ET, with Minnesota playing at Detroit as a 6.5-point road favorite with the total set at 225 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two more games begin at 7:40 PM ET. Toronto hosts Chicago as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 224.5. Phoenix travels to Atlanta for the first game of a doubleheader on TNT at 7:40 PM ET. The Suns are on an eleven game winning streak after their 121-111 win against Brooklyn as a 6-point favorite on Tuesday. Their 41-9 record is the best in the NBA. The Hawks had their seven-game winning streak end in a 106-100 upset loss to Toronto as a 1-point favorite on Monday. Atlanta’s record fell to 24-26 with the setback. Phoenix is a 5-point road favorite with a total of 223. Miami plays at San Antonio at 8:40 PM ET as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 219.5. Two more NBA conclude the card at 10:10 PM ET. Golden State is at home against Sacramento as a 13-point favorite with a total of 221. The Los Angeles Clippers are the technical home team at Crypto.com Arena when they play the Los Angeles Lakers in the nightcap on TNT at 10:10 PM ET. The Clippers lost their second game in their last three games after their 122-116 loss at Indiana as a 1-point underdog on Monday. Their record fell to 26-26 with the defeat. The Lakers are on a three-game losing streak after a 129-121 loss at Atlanta as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday. Their record dropped to 24-27 with the setback. The Clippers are a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 218. Thirteen games are on national television in college basketball. Two of these games start at 6 PM ET. St. John’s visits Georgetown on FS1 at 6 PM ET as a 5-point road favorite with a total of 157.5. Delaware is at home against Drexel on the CBS Sports Network as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 145.5. Two more NCAA-B games on national television tip-off at 7 PM ET. Winthrop plays at home against North Carolina A&T on ESPNU as a 9-point favorite at William Hill as a total of 148. Northeastern hosts James Madison on the CBS Sports Network as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 143.5. Three NCAA-B games on national television start at 8 PM ET. Arizona plays at home against UCLA on ESPN as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 148.5. Ohio State is at home against Iowa on FS1 as a 5-point favorite with an over/under to 153. Old Dominion hosts Marshall on the CBS Sports Network as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 144. Two more NCAA-B games start at 9 PM ET. Gonzaga visits San Diego on ESPN2 as a 21.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 150.5. Utah is at home against Oregon State on ESPNU as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 141. At 10 PM ET, two more NCAA-B games tip-off on national television. BYU plays at home against San Francisco on the CBS Sports Network as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141. Oregon is at Colorado on FS1 as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 138.5. Two games on national television conclude the NCAA-B card at 11 PM ET. USC travels to Arizona State on ESPN2 as a 6-point road favorite with an over/under of 132. UC-Riverside hosts Hawaii on ESPNU as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 127.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/02/2022

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Feb 02, 2022

The Wednesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.Nine games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Two games tip-off the card at 7:10 PM ET. Indiana hosts Orlando as a 5-point favorite with the total set at 219.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Philadelphia plays at home against Washington. Two more NBA games begin at 7:40 PM ET. Boston is at home against Charlotte as a 4.5-point favorite. Memphis visits New York in the opening game of a doubleheader on ESPN at 7:40 PM ET. The Grizzlies’ three-game winning streak ended with a 122-119 upset loss at Philadelphia as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. Their record dropped to 35-18 with the setback. The Knicks ended their three-game losing streak with their 116-96 victory against Sacramento as a 6.5-point favorite on Monday. New York raised their record to 24-27 with the win. Memphis is a 3-point road favorite with an over/under 217.Cleveland travels to Houston at 8:10 PM ET as a 2.5-point road favorite. Dallas is at home against Oklahoma City at 8:40 PM ET as an 11.5-point favorite. Two more NBA games start at 10:10 PM ET. Brooklyn plays at Sacramento as a 4-point road favorite. Utah hosts Denver in the nightcap on ESPN at 10:10 PM ET. The Jazz lost their fifth game in a row with a 126-106 loss at Minnesota as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Their record fell to 30-21 with the loss. The Nuggets won their fifth straight game with a 136-100 upset win at Milwaukee as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. They improved their record to 28-21 with the victory. Utah is a 2-point favorite. The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. Two games drop the puck at 7:08 PM ET. The New York Islanders are at home against Seattle as a -160 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Washington plays at home against Edmonton on TNT as a -140 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Los Angeles visits Detroit at 7:38 PM ET as a -140 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Two more NHL games conclude the card at 9:38 PM ET. Calgary is at Arizona as a -285 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6. Minnesota plays at Chicago on TNT as a -155 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Seven games are on national television in college basketball. Three of these games tip-off at 7 PM ET. Xavier hosts Butler on the CBS Sports Network as an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 130.5. Wake Forest is at home against Pittsburgh on ESPN2 as a 13-point favorite with a total of 133.5. Arkansas plays at Georgia on ESPNU as a 10-point road favorite with an over/under of 152.5. Three more televised NCAAB games begin at 9 PM ET. North Carolina State is at home against Syracuse on ESPN2 as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 151.5. Kansas State plays at home against Oklahoma State on ESPNU as a 2-point favorite with a total of 129.5. VCU hosts Dayton on the CBS Sports Network as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 120. Villanova plays at Marquette on FS1 at 10 PM ET as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 133.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/01/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Feb 01, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.Seven games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Detroit plays at home against New Orleans at 7:10 PM ET at a 1.5-point favorite (all odds from DraftKings). Two more games begin at 7:40 PM ET. Toronto is at home against Miami as a 2-point favorite. Milwaukee hosts Washington at TNT as an 11.5-point favorite. Two games start at 8:10 PM ET. Chicago plays at home against Orlando as a 10.5-point favorite. Minnesota is at home against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite. Golden State visits San Antonio at 8:40 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite. Phoenix hosts Brooklyn in the nightcap on TNT at 10:10 PM ET as a 7-point favorite. The National Hockey League has 11 games on its slate. The puck drops at 7:08 PM ET for six games. Boston hosts Seattle as a -255 money line favorite with a total set at 6. Tampa Bay plays at home against San Jose as a -300 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Toronto visits New Jersey as a -200 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Florida plays in New York against the Rangers as a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Winnipeg travels to Philadelphia as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 6. Pittsburgh hosts Washington as a -155 money line favorite with a total of 6. Two NHL games start at 7:38 PM ET. The New York Islanders are at home against Ottawa as a -265 money line favorite with an over/under of 6, Nashville plays at home against Vancouver as a -205 money line favorite with a total of 6. Calgary visits Dallas at 8:38 PM ET as a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Colorado plays at home against Arizona at 9:08 PM ET as a -575 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Vegas hosts Buffalo at 10:08 PM ET as a -400 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Eleven games are on national television in college basketball. Connecticut plays at home against Creighton on FS1 as a 10-point favorite with a total of 134.5. Four more games begin at 7 PM ET. Kansas visits Iowa State on ESPN as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 139. Michigan State plays at Maryland on ESPN2 as a 4.5-point road favorite. St. Bonaventure is at home against Davidson as a 3-point favorite with a total of 138.5. Mississippi State hosts South Carolina on ESPN as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 139.5. Seton Hall travels to Georgetown on FSI at 8:30 PM ET as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 152.5. Three more games on national television start at 9 PM ET. Auburn hosts Alabama as a 7-point favorite with a total of 135.5. Wichita State is at home against Tulsa on ESPNU as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5. Texas Tech hosts Texas on ESPN2 as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 123.Two NCAAB games conclude the college basketball card. UNLV is at home against Nevada on FS1 at 10:30 PM ET. Fresno State visits San Jose City as an 11.5-point road favorite an 11.5-point road favorite with a total of 127.5.

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The Los Angeles Clippers Scoring (and Over) Surge (without Leonard and George)

by Team Del Genio

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

Despite (or because of) playing without the injured Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Los Angeles Clippers are playing higher-scoring games lately. Going into the last day of January, their last five games had seen 219. 2 combined points scored, with the Clippers averaging 111.6 points per game. That scoring average is almost six points above their 105.9 ppg average this season. The Clippers continue to play undermanned without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, yet head coach Tyronn Lue is getting a surprising contribution from Amir Coffey. He is averaging 17.4 points per game, 4.8 rebounds per game, and 2.4 assists per game in his last five games. Los Angeles lost the Pacers in Indiana on Monday, 122-116, but don’t blame the offensive effort of the Clippers. They made 45 of their 96 shots from the field for a 47% field goal percentage. Coffey led the way with 27 points on 9 of 14 shooting including him making five of his nine shots from the 3-point line. The former Minnesota Golden Gopher added four assists and five rebounds. Leonard has been out since the playoffs last spring with his knee injury. There is some talk that he could return for a potential playoff run. George is dealing with an elbow injury that has kept him out since December 22nd. While both players offer critical scoring for the Clippers, their absence on the defensive end of the court has probably had a bigger impact on this team.This continued offensive proficiency for the Los Angeles Clippers without George and Leonard is resulting in more overs.  Defensive lapses are an area of emphasis to monitor after the Pacers made 53% of their shots, including 13 of 29 (48%) of their shots from the 3-point line. Los Angeles has played five of their last seven games over the number when playing their third game in five days on the road. The Clippers did not cover the 1-point they were laying as a road favorite on Monday, and they have still played six of the last eight games over the number after a point spread win. Los Angeles entered the game coming off a 115-90 upset victory against Charlotte getting 6.5-points from the oddsmakers on Sunday. The Clippers have played five of their last six games over the number after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They have played five of their last six games over the total after playing at least three in a row on the road. Their eight-game road trip ended with their 6-point loss at Indiana on Monday, but more road games are quickly on the horizon for this team. After a two-game homestand this week against the Los Angeles Lakers and the Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles will embark on a three-day road swing in the southwest against Memphis before two straight games against the Mavericks in Dallas. With George and Leonard not expected to return anytime soon, perhaps these impending road games will offer profitable betting opportunities with the over. Good luck - TDG.

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NBA Teams To Watch

by Will Rogers

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

NBA Teams To WatchThere’s not that much time left between now and the NBA All-Star Break. But expect some movement in the two conferences. Here’s what to watch for.EastThe top six is currently: Miami, Chicago, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Milwaukee and Brooklyn. The two preseason favorites being fifth and sixth is a little surprising. Milwaukee has dealt with some injuries. Brooklyn hasn’t had its big three of Durant/Irving/Harden together except for a couple of games. Irving can’t play at home as long as he remains unvaccinated. The Nets are 5-19-1 ATS at the Barclays Center. Speaking of surprises, how about Cleveland? Oddsmakers have started to catch up though. The Cavs are just 5-12-1 ATS in the last 18 games. Still, I can see them ending up finishing second to Miami. The Cavs, a young team, will care more about seeding. If there’s a team that might drop a few spots, I think it might be Chicago. They’ve got the lowest point differential of the top six and are just +2.3 per 100 possessions, which is below Boston. Looking at the next four, who would be involved in the play-in round, you’ve got: Charlotte, Toronto, Boston and Atlanta. The latter two (Boston, Atlanta) have more potential to move up, especially the Celtics, who could even break into the top six. Boston has the East’s second best defensive efficiency rating. It’s interesting how Charlotte is first in the league in points scored and last in the conference in points allowed. Atlanta also has some defensive issues, but recently won eight in a row.Teams on the outside looking in are: Washington, New York, Indiana, Detroit & Orlando. The bottom two have no shot. Indiana is 2-10 in games decided by three points or less, so luck has not been on their side. Washington has really started to fall off. New York was a top six team last year and has predictably regressed. I think the gap between these teams and the four who currently occupy spots 7-10 will only widen. WestThe top six is currently: Phoenix, Golden State, Memphis, Utah, Denver and Dallas. Utah has really fallen off. They’ve lost 11 of 13 and key reserve Joe Ingles is out for the year with an injury. So they could be in some trouble. Memphis has been insanely hot, winning 26 of 34. I still think Golden State will overtake Phoenix. Denver and Dallas should remain in the top six. That means teams like the Lakers and Clippers seem resigned to play-in round. The Lakers’ championship window appears to be closed. The Clippers have a lot of big comeback wins and no Paul George or Kawhi Leonard. The LA teams aren’t what they used to be. I think Minnesota is better. The 10th spot is really going to be up for grabs. Portland currently occupies it, but the numbers suggest San Antonio has been better. I can see 45+ losses for whomever finishes 10th and it will probably be one and done in the play-in round. New Orleans, Sacramento, Houston and Oklahoma City just don’t have it this year. At least you can make money betting on the Thunder, who are 30-17 ATS (2nd best in the league). The Spurs have gone Over in 70% of their home games, but go Under 67% of the time on the road. Dallas has gone Under 75% of the time at home. Minnesota has gone Over 73% of the time on the road. 

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The Defensive (and Under) Juggernaut Rising at Washington State

by Team Del Genio

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

In our NCAA-B Sunday Night Vegas O/U Jackpot after the NFL Conference Championship Games, we noted that the Washington State Cougars had played four straight and eight of their last nine games under the total. The Cougars went into that game holding their opponents to 39.9% shooting, ranking in the top-30 in the nation. They held the Utes to a 39.1% field goal percentage on Wednesday in a 71-54 victory. That final score finished below the 139 total installed by the oddsmakers, and they had played eight of their last ten games under the number after playing an under in their last game. Washington State had played six straight unders after a win. They were set to complete a four-game homestand where they had played seven straight unders. They were holding their opponents to 63.8 points per game on 40.6% shooting when playing at home in Pullam. Yet the Cougars were scoring only 69.6 points per game on 41.4% shooting in their previous five games, a bit below their 74.0 ppg average on 42.2% shooting. They had played eleven of their last twelve games under the number when the oddsmakers install them as the favorite. Washington’s State reliable defense made a statement against Colorado that night. They held the Buffaloes to just 18 first-half points to race out to a 21-point lead. When the final buzzer sounded, the Cougars had held Colorado to a 29% field goal percentage on 16 of 56 shooting. Washington State overachieved expectations on the offensive end of the court by shooting 49% from the field and making 12 of their 28 shots from 3-point land. Yet the combined 113 points scored in the Cougars victory fell well below the 132 point total that most oddsmakers settled on by tip-off.Head coach Kyle Smith is quietly building a defensive juggernaut with this Washington State team. His Cougars finished 24th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency last season. That was the program’s best defensive effort since 2009. Smith mixes man-to-man defenses with 2-3 matchup zone schemes. In Year 3 at Washington State, Smith has his team ranked 22nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have held their last three opponents to 57, 54, and 43 points. With a 12-7 record and a 5-3 mark in the Pac-12, the Cougars appear destined to be a bubble team for the next six weeks before the NCAA tournament. Their victory against Colorado may have been their best win for their resume. Yet they end the month of January ranked 35th in the nation according to the analytics at kenpom. They have held 11 of their 13 opponents to no more than 64 points. With upcoming games against Arizona, UCLA, and USC, Smith has the opportunity to test the defensive chops of his team against three teams with legitimate final four aspirations. Those showdowns may offer some intriguing under opportunities, pending what the oddsmakers and the market have to say about the over/under number. Good luck - TDG.

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Fixing NFL Overtime

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

Like clockwork, if a team wins by the opening touchdown in the overtime period in the NFL playoffs, calls will begin to change the procedures enacted to resolve these games that remain tied after regulation time. Critics (often holding losing bet tickets) will cry about the injustice of the system and the arbitrariness of the game decided by a coin flip. We do not bat an eyebrow watchman tired referees hurriedly deploy eye-ball tests when they guestimate where the ball was downed before Big Tech purifies the process with close-up camera angles. But, sure, let’s start complaining about the overtime system impacting the integrity of the game only when the process finally literally embraces literal coin flips to impact the outcome rather than just the de-facto coin-flip external actions that litter the game before that point. The overtime in the NFL playoffs used to be resolved with a full 15-minute extra period. This approach was abandoned because games would take too long. Player health and safety get invoked as a rationale, but if you are buying that, I have some oceanside property here in Las Vegas I can offer you at a really good deal. The essential problem remains how to develop a mechanism to resolve tied games that is fair to both teams but accomplishes this goal quickly. The college system has teams alternate possessions starting at the 25-yard line. But because those games were taking too long still to determine a winner, a system was implemented that had the teams embark on rotation two-point conversion attempts after the first two rounds at the 25-yard line. For many observers (including myself), that feels too much like the skills competition attempts to resolve games in the regular season of the NHL. Embracing a longer overtime session like the NHL does in the Stanley Cup playoffs would likely put the winner at a competitive disadvantage in their next game against an opponent who did not play in as long a game. Most new proposals to the overtime rules simply kick the can on the inevitable problem inherent in the advantage of winning the coin flip for overtime. The rules can be changed to allow for both teams to touch the ball once — then anything goes — but the team that got the ball first and scored a touchdown still has the edge of getting the ball first after the back-and-forth. If one is committed to eliminating a full period of additional play, then the dilemma of infinite regression regarding the fairness of “who gets the ball first” is inevitable. However, there may be a way out of this conundrum. Here is the Hollywood Sports’ proposal. First, ditch the overtime coin flip and award the team with the most yards from scrimmage with choice of ball/field direction. Better yet, include special teams' return yards to the mix on top of offensive yards from scrimmage so that all three phases of the game impact this tie-breaker determinant. The second tie-breaker can be fewer offensive plays (higher yards-per-play). This addresses the concern about the randomness of the coin-flip with the first option choice being rewarded based on a skills-based objective. Second, then let both teams get one offensive possession. While the "both teams get the ball once" overtime reform seems to just kick the can on the "but the other QB never gets the chance to respond" dilemma, perhaps the game-theory intangibles with the 2-point option neutralizes this concern in practice.Hypothetically, let’s look at the Buffalo Bills-Kansas City overtime classic that ended when Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a winning touchdown on the opening overtime drive after Kansas City won the arbitrary coin flip. Let’s then assume Josh Allen leads the Bills to a touchdown on their possession.Do the Bills then go for 2 to win the game, right then and there? Knowing that possibility, does Kansas City go for 2 after their initial Travis Kelce TD to pre-empt this Buffalo counter? More game-defining plays of makes/misses might nullify the concern of overtime taking too long. This scenario makes the strategic choice to defer getting the ball first (as is the conventional wisdom in college football) since there is heightened value in knowing what you need to win the game. If this game-theory stratagem with the removal of the arbitrary coin-flip for a determinant that is results-based, then I think we are getting somewhere to improve an, albeit, inherently flawed process. In an ideal world, the NFL playoffs would be able to transcend the physical limitations of their human being players and embrace the overtime process of the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs before hitting a magic reset button for the winning team to be fully rested for their next game. But, alas …Best of luck — Frank.

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On Heartbreak, and Appreciating Josh Allen

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

Even in defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs, I was very much impressed with Josh Allen, who has convinced me to ignore the Bills' 0-6 record in one-possession games (after that loss) moving forward next season. I know the Buffalo Bills and their Bills’ Mafia fans thought this was the year for their team after losing in Kansas City last year by a 38-24 score. But there is a difference between disappointment and universe-shattering heartbreak. The Bad Boy Detroit Pistons thought they learned how to win after hardships but they had to discover what true heartbreak felt like in 1987 when Isiah Thomas inbounded the ball back to Larry Bird in the Eastern Conference Finals to spoil what would have likely been a decisive road win in the Garden. Thomas and the Pistons responded by winning titles in '89 and '90 after losing the NBA Finals in Game 7 in '88In appreciating of Allen, I quote the Buffalo Bills' section of Football Outsiders 2018 almanac as an illustration of what "the smartest guys in the analytics room" had spectacularly wrong back then: “(Brandon) Beane wouldn’t get into how his quarterback board looked in a post-draft press conference — a glaring tell that Allen wasn’t the No. 1 player at the position for him—but offered the boilerplate “he can make all the throws” nonsense that you’d have to believe to invest this pick in a player like Allen … The problem is that Allen isn’t even an accurate deep arm right now. He can throw a deep ball like Grandma can quit smoking any time she wants to … This is the blind leading the blind … It’s a shame that this offensive blueprint is so irresponsible because it’s erasing the good work that the Bills have done on defense and special teams … The Bills spent the middle of the summer filing a patent for the phrase “Respect the Process.” But they are asking us to respect their process when it’s conclusively not a good process … This process is just following conventional quarterback scouting wisdom and building to win in the 1980s … Ironically, snarky look-at-me rhetoric and potshots at establishment folks like Simms goes a long way in the world of "just trust the data." That’s some good stuff from an “expert” who remains a regular at the football analytics him whose data ranked the Dallas Cowboys as the top team in the NFL entering this postseason (before losing unceremoniously at home to San Francisco).The issue is not getting a few things wrong (we all do). But it was always an option to have reserved skepticism about Allen coming out of Wyoming. Wait for the data to develop. Nope, the above was another drop in the overreach of the Hot Take Industrial Complex. And I am a long-time customer who likes many of the regular contributors at Football Outsiders when I conduct my foundational work in July and August for all 32 NFL teams. But some of the writers advance some terrible arguments worthy of fading (and FO remains worse than a drunk monkey in the prediction game).So, congratulations to Allen (and the Bills) despite their brutal loss to the Chiefs this season. And those in the analytics community might boost their credibility if they just owned up to their sensational failures, rather than punching up versus dudes like Phil Simms with devastatingly more accomplishments.Best of luck — Frank.

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Betting Soccer Totals

by Power Sports

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

With all of the big European leagues on break the final week of January, now is a good time for some soccer discussion. Let’s talk about betting soccer totals.I delved into xG (expected goals) and xGA (expected goals allowed) to find which clubs you may want to consider betting Over, or Under, down the home stretch of the 2021/22 campaign.For beginners, xG is the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics of that shot and the events leading up to it while xGA is just the opposite, measuring the number of goals a side should have conceded. Bet Over Wolverhampton (Premier League) - In 21 matches played, the Wolves have scored 19 goals and conceded only 16 goals. That total number of goals (35) is - by far - the fewest in the entire Premier League. The next fewest would be Burnley’s 43 and they’ve played three fewer fixtures (matches). Leicester City has played 20 fixtures, one fewer than the Wolves, and there have been a total of 72 goals scored when they’re on the pitch! So the Under has been your friend when playing Wolverhampton thus far. But what about moving forward? xGA says they SHOULD have conceded 26 times already. Don’t be surprised if this side starts conceding more down the stretch. Athletic Bilbao (La Liga) - On the flip side, La Liga’s Athletic Club (Bilbao) has scored only 21 goals, but their number of expected goals (xG) is 31. Coming up so woefully short of the xG total partially explains why Athletic Club is languishing down in ninth place when they probably should be higher in the table. That, and the fact they’ve been “kings of the draw” in La Liga, sharing the points a league-high 10 times. This side is actually fifth in xPts (expected points) and I anticipate they’ll be challenging for one of the European places by season’s end. If they do move up, expect them to start scoring more goals.  Wolfsburg (Bundesliga) - Wolfsburg started the season by winning their first four matches. Since then, they’ve won only twice and lost 11 of 16 times. Tied with last place Greuther Furth (who they play this week) for fewest goals in the league (17), Wolfsburg is moving shockingly close to the relegation zone in the German top flight. But they’ve been unlucky when it comes to scoring goals. Their xG total is 27. So like Athletic Club, look for this side to start scoring more. Incredibly, Wolfsburg has been blanked six of its last seven league matches. Sunday is a must win and they’ll probably put some goals up. Bet Under Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga) - BVB has scored 52 times this Bundesliga season, but that’s a “lucky” total as xG has them only scoring 40. With Erling Haaland’s future very much in question here, regression in the goal scoring department is coming. Haaland, who had to be taken off injured in the 63rd minute against Hoffenheim, has scored 16 goals in just 14 matches. Lazio (Serie A) - No side in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues has a wider gap between actual goals scored and xG than Serie A’s Lazio. I Biancocelesti have scored 46 times this season, third most in Serie A, putting them right with the big boys. But they have also exceeded their xG total (31.60) by almost 15. Therefore, expect fewer goals from them moving forward, thus likely depriving them of a top six finish. Last time out, it was a 0-0 draw with Atalanta (whose matches are almost always high-scoring).  Levante (La Liga) - The side at the foot of the La Liga table (in last place) is a little different than the other two sides I’m telling you to bet Under. Levante, in my view, is quite unlucky to be facing relegation for next season. The main culprit for this is the number of goals they’ve conceded, 43, which is the most in the league. But that number is well above what xGA says (31.83). If Levante has any hope of not dropping to the Segunda Division, it must shore up the back end. As far as betting them Under, they’ve scored the fifth fewest number of goals in La Liga.  So that seems like a solid bet, moving forward. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 01/31/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

The Monday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.Eight games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Three games tip-off the card at 7:10 PM ET. Cleveland hosts New Orleans as a 9.5-point favorite (all odds from DraftKings). Indiana plays at home against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 1.5-point favorite. Philadelphia is at home against Memphis as a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 219. Three NBA games start at 7:40 PM ET. Boston hosts Miami as a 3.5-point favorite. New York is at home against Sacramento as a 5.5-point favorite. Atlanta plays at home against Toronto as a 2.5-point favorite. Two games conclude the NBA card at 8:10 PM ET. Golden State visits Houston as a 10.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 230. Portland plays at Oklahoma City as a 3-point road favorite. The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. Florida travels to Columbus at 7:08 PM ET as a -225 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Four more games drop the puck at 7:38 PM ET. Toronto plays at home against New Jersey as a -340 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Chicago is at home against Vancouver as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Edmonton visits Ottawa as a -200 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Detroit hosts Anaheim as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 6.Eight games are on national television in college basketball. Three begin at 7 PM ET. Boston University is at home against Holy Cross on the CBS Sports Network as a 16.5-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5. Wofford travels to Mercer on ESPNU as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 138. Duke plays at Notre Dame in the opening game of a doubleheader on ESPN. The Blue Devils won their fifth game in their last six with a 74-65 victory at Louisville as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. They improved their record to 17-3. The Fighting Irish won their 10th game in their 11th with their 69-65 win against Virginia as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Notre Dame has a 14-6 record. Duke is a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 143.5. Colorado State visits Wyoming on FS1 at 8 PM ET as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 146. Three NCAAB games tip-off at 9 PM ET. Oklahoma is at home against TCU on ESPN2 as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 127.5. Norfolk State plays at North Carolina-Central on ESPNU as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 136.5. Baylor hosts West Virginia in the nightcap on ESPN. The Bears won their third straight game with a 74-49 victory against Kansas State as a 13-point favorite on Tuesday. They raised their record to 18-2 with the win. The Mountaineers lost their fourth straight game after their 72-62 upset defeat to Oklahoma as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. West Virginia's record fell to 13-6 with the setback. Baylor is a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. San Diego State plays at home against New Mexico on FS1 at 10 PM ET as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 135.5. 

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