If caught my attention yesterday when a radio hosts sports wannabe handicapper was talking about how strong LSU’s late drinking fest in Baton Rouge was and the affect it would have on their game. He said the venue was an incredibly solid strong home venue. NOTE: They we’re playing in New Orleans at the Superdome and Florida St won outright. So much for that information. Lol
An ESPN Handicapper was attempting to explain that if Buffalo went from -2 to -2.5 and -3 against the Rams that it indicated “sharp money”. Yes, that could be true. But he didn’t know. He had no idea. What if 80% of the tickets written on Buffalo were all from public money? That would have had the point spread going from -2 to -2.5 to -3. The exact same outcome as his “sharp money” example. He wanted to be right but he had no clue.
There are counter tickets (public bets). There are betting apps (could be anyone). There’s the back room numbers where the actual dollars are added then sided and the numbers are adjusted. There’s a sector of huge offshore sports books where some of the biggest bets are made and are monitored by us. This is real informative. It follows the money. Not an ESPN opinion.
Another factor is the straight bets vs money line bets. The sports books don’t want to get sided so sometimes the lines move and other times they won’t change them if they’re in a favorable position.
Towards the end of the season, the point spread for that specific game must be calculated and measured against all the future bets the sports books have exposure.
In reality, the ESPN hosts that looks like he walked out of GQ is there for his look and speaking ability. Even if he’s played the game his opinions are slanted, taunted and not really his. The teleprompter queues the information entered and and loves to put in a “false narrative” that the Buffalo point spread is really moving. “Stay tuned after this word from Coors Beer, we’ll be right back.” And off to a commercial.
PS: You were part of their commercial; not for Vegas Inside Sharp Betting Information; but for SportsCenter much needed content.
If the information you demand is critical for your own pockets, come back to me all week long.