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Watch Out for Kansas during March Madness

by Team Del Genio

Sunday, Feb 28, 2021

Kansas upset the number two ranked team in the nation, Baylor, on Saturday, 71-58, as a 5-point favorite. Hopefully, TDG regulars were not surprised by that result since that was our ESPN Game of the Year on the Jayhawks. We had observed at the time that Kansas was going into the month of March a much-improved team on defense. We wrote in the game report:“After a schematic change by Bill Self to play more aggressively against ball-screens, Kansas has held their last five opponents to 38.4% shooting which is resulting in 58.2 points-per-game in the rugged Big 12. Bettors need to keep their eyes on the lookout for late-season improvements from teams that get elite coaching especially in a pandemic-ridden season where practice schedules earlier in the year have been out of the ordinary. This Jayhawks’ team is evolving into a scrappy defense-first juggernaut.”Kansas came to play on defense by holding the Bears to 34.8% shooting while coaxing them to miss 17 of their 23 shots from the 3-point land for a 23.1% clip. Baylor entered that game shooting 50.3% from the field and making 43.2% of their 3-pointers. As Bears’ Scott Drew claimed that a layoff from COVID was his team’s “kryptonite,” head coaches often reach for excuses in the face of frustrating defensive play. The plight of the blue blood programs in college basketball has been of the storylines this season. Duke, Kentucky, and Michigan State are all at risk of not making the NCAA Tournament. We wrote about the trials and tribulations for these traditional powers in college football and college basketball during this year where COVID has impacted every program. As we observed in December about Duke and Kentucky:  “These are two programs that need practice and coaching.” As the calendar turns to March, both of those basketball teams along with the Spartans have seen significant improvement in play over the last few weeks.Keep your eye out for freshman taking their games to the next level in March. The Jayhawks have a talented redshirt freshman in Jalen Wilson. The four-star recruit did not see the court much last year but has stepped up this season to average 12.6 points-per-game with 8.4 rebounds-per-game. In his nine games in February, Wilson improved his scoring average to a 13.3 points-per-game clip while pulling down 11.0 rebounds-per-game. First-year players improve especially when they are getting great coaching. Kansas temporarily fell out of the top-25 in early February after losing five of seven games. All five of those losses were on the road to nationally-ranked teams. The inclusion of the Jayhawks in the plight of the blue-bloods narrative has always been a stretch. Perhaps Kansas is not a top-five team this season as they were last year when their 28-3 record had them destined to take one of the four top seeds in the NCAA tournament. Yet it would be foolhardy to dismiss Self’s ability to navigate this team to another final four appearance in the first weekend in April. Good luck - TDG.

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The Curious Case of Brighton’s xG

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Feb 28, 2021

I wrote about the strengths and weaknesses of using expected goals (xG) analytics in handicapping soccer last summer. Since that time, Brighton and Hove Albion have become the poster child expressing the limitations of relying too heavily on these metrics. Bettors banking on the Regression Gods to finally help the Seagulls see more of their shots reach the back of the net likely find themselves in trouble now.As I wrote last summer: “Expected goals is a metric that determines a statistical probability on every scoring chance a team generates in a match. In this adventure of quantitative analysis, similar scoring situations are logged to determine a scoring probability from a deep data set in a way similar to measurements that predict the accuracy of an NBA shooter attempting a 22-foot corner 3-pointer. Shot attempts that have an empirical success rate of 35% or higher have been categorized as Big Chances. By reassessing a soccer match from the expected goals (xG) and expected goals allowed (xGA) given the activity and nature of all the shot attempts in a match. If xG analysis offers a better evaluation regarding how a team is playing, then it could provide a more precise way to measure subsequent action.”Brighton played at West Bromwich Albion yesterday (February 27th) as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite. For handicappers relying almost exclusively on xG, that match may have looked rather tasty. The Seagulls may have been only 4 points above relegation land 16th place in the EPL table, but their expected points generated from a dissection of their xG and xGA for the season projects them as the fifth-best team in the English Premier League. West Brom, on the other hand, was in 19th place in points and dead-last 20th place in xPTs. Easy win for Brighton, right? If those bettors then looked at the xG results after that match, they might have started shopping for their new beachfront property. The Seagulls generated 3.28 xG against the Baggies while surrendering just 0.73 xG. The most likely score given that activity is a comfortable 3-1 win for Brighton. The actual score? West Brom 1, Brighton 0. Perhaps that was yet another statistical aberration. Just like last week, when Brighton dominated Crystal Palace by a 3.03-0.27 mark in xG but lost, 2-1. Just like two matchweeks ago when the Seagulls outclasses Aston Villa by a 2.44-0.44 mark in xG but settled for a 0-0 draw. I like to refer to the gambler’s expectation of outlier numbers returning back to a normal a call to the Regression Gods. The Miami Dolphins’ defense was not going to continue to bail out Tua Tagovailoa’s meager passing days in his rookie season by forcing multiple turnovers week-after-week-after week. When called, the Regression Gods eventually arrive. But these Gods never promised to show up promptly — and we need to keep our bankroll for when they finally make their triumphant return in the pursuit of justice. Sometimes these underlying numbers are not simply outliers due for regression. Sometimes these numbers are descriptive. To paraphrase former NFL head coach Dennis Green, sometimes the numbers “are we thought they were!” (“and we let ‘em off the hook!”). Perhaps Brighton has scored only 27 goals despite their xG projecting that the typical team typical players would score 37.85 goals precisely because the Seagulls are a roster consisting of below-average players! As I wrote in the summer: “Expected goals attempt to determine the most likely outcomes. But not all outcomes are created equal. Lionel Messi is going to score more goals than Glenn Murray dribbling up the left-wing and talking a shot from 30 yards out.” Well, Aaron Maupay may have replaced Murray as the Brighton striker this season — but he is still no Messi. Don’t get me wrong, I love xG — and incorporating expected goals analysis has improved by handicapping in soccer and hockey (where similar principles apply). We just should not become zombies to these numbers — it will drive us to bankruptcy. You wanna be an analytics fundamentalist and exclusively following the betting advice at Football Outsiders when betting the NFL? Kiss your bankroll goodbye in about a month. The most successful handicapping incorporates a variety of tools in the proverbial toolbox. A final tip regarding xG: use these numbers to illustrate the prospective floor and ceiling regarding a team’s potential. Brighton’s xG promise did pay off on February 3rd of this month when they upset Liverpool by a 1-0 score. They won the xG battle by a 1.32-0.97 margin — so this was not a fluky victory. Perhaps one lesson regarding the handicapping application of xG is this: underperforming teams in xG make dangerous underdogs but unreliability favorites. Best of luck — Frank.

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Ya Think Iowa Plays Bad Defense? Check Out Ohio State!

by Hollywood Sports

Sunday, Feb 28, 2021

Iowa may have the National Player of the Year in college basketball this season in Luka Garza with the senior All-American going into the last day of February leading the nation with a 24.3 Points-Per-Game scoring average. He leads a Hawkeyes’ attack that makes 40.4% of their 3-pointers, good for fourth-best in the nation. Fran McCaffrey’s team also assists on 63.5% of their made baskets with this exquisite ball movement ranking seventh-best nationally. For a team that scores 85.2 Points-Per-Game while ranking second in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, perhaps it is these elite numbers that draw attention to their meager numbers on the other end of the court. Iowa is just 59th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Their opponents have an effective field goal percentage of 48.3% against them, ranking 104th nationally. The Hawkeyes do not attempt to force turnovers with their opponents only losing possession 16.2% of the time before a shot, 318th lowest nationally. And Iowa’s opponents nail 34.9% of their shots from behind the arc, 239th in the nation. These opponents are also taking 40.0% of their shots from downtown, with that mark being the 260th highest in the country. Perhaps the elite shooting Iowa brings to games is compelling their opponents to take more 3s to keep up? Maybe. But Iowa is clearly much better on offense with their liabilities on defense a red flag regarding their NCAA Tournament potential to make a deep run. The above seems to be fair criticism and assessment of the 2020-21 college basketball team entering March. But why have fellow Big Ten and nationally-ranked peers in Ohio State escaped similar scrutiny? The Buckeyes began the week as the number four ranked team in the nation and the de-facto fourth number one season in the NCAA Tournament — even after losing to third-ranked Michigan on February 21st. Sure, there is no shame in losing to this Wolverines team that is tearing up the Big Ten while only losing once all season even after a three-week COVID pause in the middle of the Big Ten season. Michigan scored 92 points against them while generating 1.37 Points-Per-Possession. Yet, the Wolverines got the credit and the Buckeyes got a pass since it was considered by many to be the best basketball game of the season. However, Ohio State entered their February 28th showdown with Iowa with worse defensive numbers across-the-board. The Buckeyes rank 81st in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency along with eighth in the Big Ten in that metric (just behind Iowa in the conference). Opponents have an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 49.1%, ranking 136th nationally. Like the Hawkeyes, Ohio State does not attempt to force many turnovers with their opponents only coughing it up in 15.6% of their possessions, 328th nationally. The Buckeyes do perform a bit better than Iowa in a 3-point defense. Their opponents make 34.4% of their 3-pointers, 215th nationally, while taking 38.6% of their shots from downtown, the 215th lowest rate. Generally, the analytics folks consider 3-point percentage defense to be a function of luck but limiting 3-point attempts more a function of skill. Maybe … the Milwaukee Bucks’ Mike Budenholzer would likely quarrel with that diagnosis since his system tries to lull opponents into taking bad 3-point shots. Jim Boeheim’s 2-3 zone defense at Syracuse attempts to accomplish the same task. Needless to say, Ohio State’s defense appears on paper to be performing worse than the Iowa defense. And at least the Hawkeyes thrive in one area: they do a good job of defending inside the arc. Their opponents are along only 45.6 % of their 2-point shots, 38th best in the nation. The Buckeyes’ opponents are making 47.5% of their shots inside the arc which ranks a respectable 97th in the nation. But that number declines to a 50.1% clip in Big Ten play, good for 9th best, while Iowa still holds their conference foes to 46.2% shooting of their 2s in conference play, ranking third best.These numbers helped to set the stage for their clash earlier today where Iowa upset Ohio State in Columbus, 73-57, as a 3-point underdog. The Buckeyes did little to stop the Hawkeyes scoring attack. Iowa shot 47% from the field while nailing 10 of 24 (42%) of their 3-pointers. Iowa scored at a healthy 1.11 Points-Per-Possession clip which was not far below their Adjusted Offensive Efficiency projected rate of 1.249. However, Ohio State made only 5 of their 17 (29%) 3-point attempts en route to a 45% shooting performance. The Buckeyes scored at just a 0.86 Points-Per-Possession clip which was well below their projected Adjusted Offensive Efficiency of 1.226 per possession. Perhaps Ohio State just had a cold night shooting? Or perhaps the Iowa defense is steadily improving while the Buckeyes’ defense gets a pass due to their top-four ranking? During the Hawkeyes’ recent four-game winning streak, before losing at Michigan on Thursday, they had not allowed more than 68 points and 1.02 Points-Per-Possession during that stretch before the Wolverines scored 79 points at a 1.18 PPP rate. Now after their performance against the third-most efficient offense in the nation in the Buckeyes, Iowa has held five of their last six opponents below 69 points and 1.02 PPG. The Hawkeyes’ defense may be their Achilles’ heel in the Big Dance later this month. But the concerns they have on defense pale in comparison to the issues Chris Holtmann has with his Ohio State team right now.Best of luck — Frank.

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MLB 2021: NL East Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Sunday, Feb 28, 2021

NL East Division Preview for MLB 2021Atlanta Braves – The Braves are projected by most to land at around 90 wins this season and battle it out with the Mets for top spot in this division. Atlanta has had 3 straight solid seasons as they are returning to the year over year consistency they had displayed for so many years before slipping a few years back. Now the Braves again look like the Braves of old with a solid rotation, including now Charlie Morton too, and they have great young arms too. Then you look at the lineup and this team has a great mix of young up and coming stars as well as veteran talent. It is hard to find a weakness with this team but the bullpen might be one area to watch. Mark Melancon is now with the Padres and so the Braves will have a different closer now and overall the pen could take some time to jell this season. Miami Marlins – The Marlins surprised some in a short season last year but now I look for them to return to a range of, at most, 70 wins. They are still in a rebuild mode which was simply a bit masked by the covid-shortened season last year. Manager Don Mattingly has been pushing the right buttons here but Miami’s bullpen was a weakness last year and their lineup produced a rather low slugging percentage. This team was fortunate to finish above .500 last season, still has some unproven starting pitchers that are still growing into their role in the rotation, and also finished toward the bottom of the league for team fielding. New York Mets – The new owner has opened up the pocketbook for sure and went on a spending spree. That is why a team that finished with a losing record last season is likely to get to around 90 wins this season. They added Lindor to bolster the lineup, McCann who is a solid veteran catcher, and Carrasco to the rotation. He’ll fit in well behind deGrom who is phenomenal. Also, the lineup looks even stronger as Dominic Smith continues to look stronger and stronger in terms of his potential. This lineup looks really strong with a lot of power potential plus the bullpen is strong in terms of closer and set-up men. Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies could surprise this season. Hard to peg them ending up much better than .500 on the season especially when you consider the strength of the Braves and Mets. Also, the Nationals are similar in overall team strength to the Nationals. However, the reason Philadelphia could surprise is because they have Nola and Wheeler at the top of the rotation plus catcher JT Realmuto, a key piece, came back and they have Bryce Harper and other big bats like Hoskins, Bohm, Gregorius and Segura. The top guys in the bullpen can be strong for the Phils but that is their overall weakness. A horrible pen that was dead last in the majors last season! Keep an eye on this as a key to Phillies season.Washington Nationals – Projected to be in the mid-80s for their win total this season. The Nats finished below .500 last season but they have to be back. They have a powerful line-up especially with the phenomenal hitting of Juan Soto plus Trea Turner and plus perhaps Josh Bell bounces back too. But when you have a solid pitching rotation led by Max Scherzer and you have Stephen Strasburg, if healthy, that is a tough 1-2 combo. Also, a very solid closer for the Nationals but their bullpen was overall a weak link last year and that could again be an issue as well. That is what could prevent Washington from competing with the Mets and Braves for the top spot in the division. 

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MLB 2021: AL East Division Preview

by Scott Rickenbach

Sunday, Feb 28, 2021

AL East Division Preview for MLB 2021Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles are projected by most to finish with a win total in the mid-60s. Baltimore is a young team that is trying to build for the future. They just can not keep up with the big spending of divisional foes like the Yankees. In a few years the youth movement should pay off but right now the Orioles have a weak rotation, poor bullpen, and will have to try and notch some victories with big games at the plate. Baltimore was one of the better hitting teams in the American League in the shortened campaign last season. Boston Red Sox – Boston is projected to finish at about .500 this season. The Red Sox still have the long-term reputation but really this team is a shell of its former self. They can win some games with their bats particularly when at home in hitter-friendly Fenway Park. However, though the bullpen has some solid arms, the starting rotation has many concerns. That said, likely to be another season in which Boston again finishes near the bottom of the table for important stats like team ERA and team fielding. This team also does have defensive concerns for sure. New York Yankees – The Yankees are expected to win this division and get to a win total in the mid-90s but the Rays and Jays are likely to have something to say about that. One of the two could emerge as a challenger to the Yanks for sure. What would be a weakness with the bankrolling Yankees? The starting rotation for sure is a concern. Fantastic bullpen it appears but who is going to be the support behind Gerrit Cole in the pitching rotation? The Yankees were only in the middle of the pack for team pitching last season and heavily rely on their sluggers to win games. Generally, as the sluggers go, so go the Yankees. Definitely a strong bullpen when healthy. Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays should get into the mid-80s for a win total this season. Amazingly one of the lowest payrolls in baseball but Tampa Bay still finds a way. They are so competitive. A small market team that is easy to like based on the competitive level they bring despite not having the star power. Of course the losses of Charlie Morton and Blake Snell form the rotation are big changes for this season. Tampa Bay will take a step back as a result but always hard to count these guys out and this is especially true if they get some solid contributions from the guys they picked up including in the Snell deal with the Padres. Toronto Blue Jays – The Blue Jays are expected to get into the mid-80s for their win total this season. But that is just where they seem stuck right now as they do not have the top-tier rotation guys to truly dominate teams. Toronto has to rely on their big sticks to try and win games as their rotation has a lot of mid-level guys but not any real standout dominators. Also, their bullpen has some strong arms but not a lot of depth and is also a bit of a concern. That said, a team whose slugging percentage ranked 4th in the AL last season will again be the key for the Blue Jays and how their season goes this year. 

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2021 NFL Draft Intel: Date, Time, Location & Mock Draft

by Oskeim Sports

Sunday, Feb 28, 2021

 The 2021 NFL Draft is set to take place whether the COVID-19 pandemic is still a factor or not. This year’s class is shaping up to be a controversial one. Yes, the 2020 NFL Draft in Roger Goodell’s basement was a little taboo. I’m referring more to the talent themselves. Most college athletes either got a shortened season with several postponements or their season was canceled altogether. The top-tier players such as Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields played in shortened seasons, but it barely affected their draft stock. The same can’t be said about most of the eligible players. Some needed that extra year to improve their skill set for a higher stock or avoid going undrafted. Others need this year to rehab from an injury and get to full strength and peak form.  The draft is always going to have “busts” and “steals” but the 2021 draft will likely see an uptick in both categories. With the NFL postseason officially over and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the reigning champs, it is time to turn your full attention to the NFL Draft.  When is the 2021 NFL Draft?  The 2021 NFL Draft will be conducted over a three-day period, starting Thursday and concluding Saturday. This year, it will be held on April 29th, 30th, and May 1st. The league spends three days on the draft due to the massive amount of coverage. It would be hard for most people to sit and view over 12 straight hours of feed. Spreading over multiple days maximizes viewership and ratings while adding some suspense to the event.  As for the start times of the draft each day, nothing is confirmed yet. The pandemic is still a lingering issue that needs to be accounted for and times won’t be solidified until closer to April. We can look at the times in recent years though to get a good estimate of when we should tune in.  Round 1 will be held on Thursday, April 29th. It should begin around 8 pm eastern standard time. Friday, April 30th, will be Rounds 2 and 3 starting around 7 pm eastern standard time. Round 4-7 are held through most of the day on Saturday, May 1st. The usual start time is noon eastern standard time since 4 rounds are selected on the final day.  The runtime each day is based on the maximum amount of time each team must select their player in each round. Teams are given 10 minutes in the first round. There are 7 minutes allowed in Rounds 2 and 3. Round 4 through 6 have 5-minute limits and there are just 4 minutes per pick on the final round.  Where is the 2021 NFL Draft being held?  This is quite the conundrum for the NFL at this moment. Last year, the draft was virtual, and the main feed was at Commissioner Roger Goodell’s own home. There was no attendance by players nor fans. Las Vegas was the initial home for the 2020 NFL Draft, but they will be compensated with hosting in 2022. For now, Cleveland, Ohio is set to host this year’s event, their first time doing so. After an impressive season in 2020, Cleveland could have a very successful stint as host. It still depends on the pandemic though. We may not know until closer to early April where exactly the draft will occur and what the attendance situation will be.  As the season progressed last year, some teams and stadiums were slowly allowing fans in the stands. It was still at a rather small capacity limit but still a start. During Super Bowl 55, there were 25,000 people in the stands with an additional 30,000 cutouts. If the draft remains in Cleveland, there will most likely be a restriction on how many can attend. A good bet would be just players and families allowed inside. Expect restrictions on fans outside the draft venue as well for safety measures. If by chance the pandemic spikes again, the draft could be aired at Goodell’s home once more or in a secondary location that players could still attend.  The NFL Draft was held in New York, in some capacity, from 1965 to 2014. It moved to Chicago for two years, but the league now takes bids for it like the Super Bowl.  Where can you watch the 2021 NFL Draft?  No matter where the draft will be held, there will be several ways to watch or stream it. ESPN, ABC, NFL Network, and ESPN Deportes will all be airing coverage live on television. You can listen to the live feed on ESPN Radio. There is also a streaming option on the NFL App, NFL.com, ESPN.com, and the NFL Network website.  2021 NFL Draft QB Preview  We all know who Trevor Lawrence is and where he is going in the draft: Jacksonville barring a ground-breaking trade. We don’t truly know exactly where any of the remaining QB prospects will land in the draft, but this scout has a decent take on the first 10 to be selected.  Zach Wilson- BYU- NY Jets- 1st Round  Sam Darnold is bound to be traded, it is just a matter of when and who. Zach Wilson has climbed the rankings over the last few months and has a similar skillset to Darnold. The real difference is that he’s a better pocket-passer with a better arm.  Justin Fields- Ohio State- Atlanta Falcons- 1st Round  This is a similar situation to where Matt Ryan could be gone, or at least he should be if I was in charge. Fields is borderline the second-best prospect in the class and helps Atlanta as they go younger and faster on offense.  Trey Lance- North Dakota State- Detroit Lions- 1st Round  Lance could easily fall down the board due to only having one game last season. Due to team need, the Lions are going to take a chance on him and help groom him into a quality starting QB. The Lions are able to be in a rebuild mode while Lance fits the mold of the NFL.  Mac Jones- Alabama- Washington Football Team- 1st Round  I can see the Patriots and Washington trading here as WFT may think New England could snag Jones. Alex Smith says he doesn’t want to retire but he’s on the last leg of his career. While Smith won Comeback Player of the Year, Jones would be an upgrade. He’s got a strong arm and athleticism.  Kyle Trask- Florida- Pittsburgh Steelers- 2nd Round  Pittsburgh will trade up, likely anywhere before Carolina or New England picks. Trask is like Roethlisberger as a true pocket passer who can run when needed. With the speed on the surrounding offense, Trask could be successful in this system.  Jamie Newman- Wake Forest- New England- 2nd Round  After a disappointing Senior Bowl, Newman will slide to New England without a fight. He looks and plays like a pro and can be a productive dual-threat. Returning for his senior year as a transfer to Georgia would have helped him but he opted out. At the very least, Newman can help push Jarrett Stidham to the next level or take the job for himself.  Kellen Mond- Texas A&M- Indianapolis Colts- 3rd Round  Mond possesses a nice arm on a solid frame. His accuracy is a sizable issue but a team in need of a QB could take a chance on him. Carolina can’t rely on Jacoby Brissett as they hoped.  Peyton Ramsey- Northwestern- Carolina Panthers- 5th Round  Ramsey can be a flashy passer at times but is more of a field general. He was limited in college with the offense around him. Carolina has a nice young offense that gives Ramsey a decent shot at the starting job against a struggling Teddy Bridgewater. It’s a long shot though.  Ian Book- Notre Dame- Denver Broncos- 6th Round  Drew Lock just doesn’t look feel like a starting QB in Denver. The team still seems high on him though but are going to need better backups for him when he does fail. Ian is a bit under the radar as well. He can be an efficient passer and a solid overall QB. Book isn’t the best NFL prospect but he’s an interesting one who could have a Ryan Fitzpatrick-like career. Now that’s a hot take.  Sam Ehlinger- Texas- New Orleans Saints- 6th Round  The Saints are all-in on Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston has their QBs. There is a chance one or both don’t pan out and the Saints don’t have a decent QB3. Ehlinger is talented but limited to be a career backup likely. He can still provide depth and maybe fight for the number two spot. 

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NCAA Basketball: Iowa/Ohio State Preview, Odds and Prediction 02/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Feb 28, 2021

A Sunday afternoon Big Ten doubleheader on CBS concludes at 4 PM ET with a battle between two teams ranked in the Associated Press’ top-ten.Iowa had been riding a four-game winning streak heading into Ann Arbor to face third-ranked Michigan on Thursday as a 5-point underdog. But the Hawkeyes were dominated on both ends of the court, with the Wolverines pulling away for a 79-57 win. Luka Garza led the team with 16 points but shot only 6 of 19 from the floor. The senior All-American leads the nation with a 24.3 points-per-game scoring average. He adds 8.3 rebounds-per-game and 1.5 blocks-per-game while making 54.8% of his shots and 44.6% of his 3-pointers. Iowa improved their play on defense as of late before Michigan scored at a 1.18 points-per-possession rate against them. The Hawkeyes had not allowed more than 68 points in their four-game winning streak, with none of those four opponents registering more than 1.02 points-per-possession. The news was even worse for Fran McCaffrey after the game with the announcement that Jack Nunge suffered a torn meniscus that would end his season. The junior was scoring 7.1 points-per-game while adding 5.3 rebounds-per-game.McCaffery returned all five starters while getting three additional players back from injury from the team that finished 20-11. The Hawkeyes, 17-7, are ranked 9th nationally by the AP. They have high-profile wins against Purdue, Rutgers, Wisconsin, and North Carolina. Their six losses are against Gonzaga, Minnesota, Indiana (twice), Illinois, the Wolverines, and these Buckeyes. Iowa's 11-6 conference record puts them in a tie for fourth place in the Big Ten.The Hawkeyes are the number two team in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency at kenpom. They make 40.1% of their 3-point shots, fourth-best nationally, while posting an effective field goal percentage of 55.0%, 29th in the country. They are also second in the nation, with a turnover rate of 13.6%. But Iowa is 81st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They allow their opponents to make 35.1% of their 3-point shots, 247th nationally. The Hawkeyes’ opponents rebound 30.4% of their missed shots, 262nd nationally.Ohio State has lost two straight after following up a loss at home to Michigan last Sunday with a 71-67 upset loss at Michigan State as a 3.5-point favorite on Thursday. E.J. Liddell scored 16 points on 4 of 13 shooting. The sophomore leads the team goes eleven deep on their bench with a 16.0 points-per-game scoring average. Duane Washington added 17 points on 7 of 16 shooting to improve his 15.6 points-per-game scoring clip.Chris Holtmann returned five of the nine players that played at least 10 minutes per game last year for the group that finished 21-10 with nine wins in their final twelve Big Ten games. Holtmann then added three impact transfers in the offseason: Abel Porter started at point guard at Utah State; Justice Sueing scored 14.6 points-per-game as a sophomore at California; Seth Towns was a former Ivy League Player of the Year at Harvard.The Buckeyes opened the Big Ten season by losing two of their first three games. Holtmann led his team to go on to win ten of eleven games before dropping their last two. They are in third place in the highly-competitive conference with a 12-6 record. Ohio State has lost to Minnesota, Northwestern, and twice to Purdue on top of their recent setbacks to the Wolverines and Spartans. The Buckeyes have defeated Purdue while notching two wins apiece against defeated Wisconsin, Maryland, and Rutgers. They also have a resume-building victory against UCLA in non-conference play. With an 18-6 overall record, Ohio State ranks fourth in the current Associated Press poll. The Buckeyes are third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to the numbers at kenpom. They are 21st in free throw rate. Ohio State is 87th in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. Holtmann’s team has fallen to ninth in the Big Ten with an opponent's effective field goal percentage of 49.6%.BookMaker lists Ohio State as a 3-point favorite with the total set at 157.0.Computer prediction:  Ohio State 78 Iowa 75

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAA Basketball, and EPL Odds and Previews - 02/28/2021

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Feb 28, 2021

The Sunday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, the NHL, and the English Premier League. Villanova travels to Butler on CBS at noon ET. The Wildcats are ranked eighth nationally by the Associated Press poll with a 15-3 record after defeating St. John’s, 81-58, as an 11.5-point underdog on Tuesday. The Bulldogs, 8-13, ended a three-game losing streak with a 61-52 upset victory against Seton Hall as an 8-point underdog on Wednesday. Villanova is an 11-point road favorite with the total set at 130 (all odds from BetOnline).Memphis visits Cincinnati on ESPN at 1 PM ET. The Tigers won their fourth straight to improve to 13-6 with a 61-46 victory against Tulane as a 10.5-point favorite on Wednesday. The Bearcats raised their record to 9-8 on Friday with their 91-71 win against Tulane as a 6-point favorite. Memphis is a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 140.Maryland hosts Michigan State on CBS at 2 PM ET. The Terrapins improved to 14-10 with four straight victories after their 68-59 upset win at Rutgers as a 5-point underdog last Sunday. The Spartans, 13-9, won their third in a row on Thursday with their 71-69 upset victory against Ohio State as a 3.5-point underdog. Maryland is a 2.5-point favorite, with the total at 134.Ohio State plays at home against Iowa on CBS at 4 PM ET. The Buckeyes are ranked fourth in the nation with an 18-6 record. They lost their second straight on Thursday in their upset loss at Michigan State. The Hawkeyes are ranked ninth by the AP with a 17-7 mark. Their four-game winning streak ended on Thursday in their 79-57 loss at Michigan as a 5-point underdog. Ohio State is a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 158.5.Houston is at home against South Florida on ESPNU at 4 PM ET. The Cougars ranked 12th in the nation by the AP with a 19-3 record. They defeated Western Kentucky, 81-57, as an 11.5-point favorite on Thursday. The Bulls fell to 8-9 with a 65-47 upset loss to Temple as a 5-point favorite on Wednesday. Houston is an 18-point favorite with a total of 132.Utah State hosts Nevada on FS1 at 7 PM ET. The Aggies improved to 15-7 with their 75-72 win against the Wolf Pack as a 9-point favorite on Friday. Nevada, 13-8, had a four-game winning streak end with the loss. Utah State is a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141.Nine games are on the NBA slate. Milwaukee plays at home against the Los Angeles Clippers on ABC at 3:30 PM ET. The Bucks won their fourth game in a row with a 129-125 win against New Orleans as an 8-point favorite on Thursday. The Clippers have won two of three with their 119-99 win at Memphis as a 7.5-point favorite on Friday. Milwaukee is a 2-point favorite, with the total set at 236.5.The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against Golden State on ESPN at 8 PM ET. The reigning NBA champions ended a four-game losing streak on Friday with their 102-93 win against Portland as a 5-point favorite. The Warriors won their third in a row by defeating Charlotte, 130-121, as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday. The Lakers are a 4-point favorite with the over/under at 225.Six games are on the NHL card. Boston plays at New York against the Rangers on NBC at noon ET. The Bruins lost their second-straight game on Friday in a 6-2 loss in Madison Square Garden to New York. The Rangers have won three of their last four games. Boston is a -160 money line road favorite with the total at 5.5.Chicago hosts Detroit on the NBC Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Blackhawks will attempt to avenge a 5-3 loss at home to the Red Wings on Saturday. Detroit has won two of their last three games. Matchweek 26 of the English Premier League continues with five matches. Arsenal plays at Leicester City on the NBC Sports Network at 7 AM ET in a pick ‘em matchup with an over/under of 2.5. Tottenham hosts Burnley on the NBC Sports Network at 11 AM ET as a -1 goal line favorite with the total at 2.5. Chelsea is at home against Manchester United on the NBC Sports Network at 11:30 AM ET as a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5.

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NBA: Potential Risers & Fallers

by Power Sports

Saturday, Feb 27, 2021

Potential Risers1. Atlanta - Remember that 4-1 start? Since then, the Hawks are just 10-18. They are currently 11th in the East. However, they have both a positive scoring differential and net efficiency rating for the season. So they’ve inarguably outscored their opponents while outplaying them on a per possession basis. Don’t be surprised if they climb as high as 6th in the East by season’s end and win the Southeast Division.  2. Dallas - The Mavs finished 7th in the West last season, largely because they were 2-11 SU in games decided by three points or less, a league worst. I figured they’d be a shoo-in to move up in the standings. But after 31 games, their record stands at just 15-16. The good news is there are still plenty of games left. I think the ceiling would be a 5th place finish. Currently, they are 9th. This team has NOT done well off an ATS win or when playing without rest. I expect that to change.3. New Orleans - The Pelicans are similar to the Hawks in that their point differential & net efficiency rating indicates they should be closer to .500. They are currently 11th in the West with a 14-18 record. One thing I notice is that 27 of their 32 games have come on one or zero days’ rest. Hopefully, the schedule breaks better for them in the second half. Zion Williamson has looked great recently. The Pelicans’ last 10 games have all gone Over the total, so you know they can score.Potential Fallers 1. Portland - The Blazers are 28th in defensive efficiency, missing two of their three best players and have suffered six 20+ point defeats. Yet somehow they are currently tied for 5th place in the West. Don’t expect that to last, however. By season’s end, they’ll be fighting for a play-in spot. This team has been lucky to this point. Their six wins by three points or less are tied for most in the league.2. Charlotte - The Hornets are already starting to fade. This is a team that’s been an underdog in 25 of its 32 games. They were expected to finish near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. The East is so depth-shy that there will be multiple teams finishing below them this season and even a play-in spot cannot be discounted. But they aren’t going to maintain a .500 record moving forward.3. Philadelphia - The Sixers are not as good as either the Bucks or the Nets. I do not expect they’ll finish with the best record in the conference, which is something they currently own. 4. Cleveland - This one may seem oddly placed as the Cavaliers are 12-21 and unquestionably considered one of the worst teams in the league. But I believe them to be THE worst team and expect a bottom of the standings finish by season’s end. 

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NCAA Basketball: Baylor/Kansas Preview, Odds, Prediction 02/27/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Feb 27, 2021

The Saturday night game on ESPN features a battle in the Big 12 between two teams ranked in the Associated Press’s top-twenty.Baylor ranks second in the Associated Press poll with an 18-0 record. They returned to the court for the first time since February 2nd after a COVID shutdown with a 77-72 victory against Iowa State as a 24-point favorite on Tuesday. The Bears were rusty from the three-week hiatus as they fell behind by 17 points in the first half. Jared Butler scored 15 of his 18 points in the second half to help lead his team to the comeback victory. The junior guard is the team’s leading scorer with a 17.1 points-per-game average. Adam Flagler led the team with 22 points coming off the bench. The sophomore is averaging 10.4 points-per-game and is one of six players that score at least 7.8 points-per-game for the Bears. Head coach Scott Drew has a deep rotation with nine players averaging over 13 minutes per game. Drew had six players return from the rotation that finished 26-4 last year.Baylor has high-profile victories against Illinois, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. They are in first place in the Big 12 with a 10-0 record. Baylor has the fourth-best offense in adjusted offensive efficiency according to the numbers at kenpom. They lead the nation with a 43.2% shooting percentage from 3-point land. The Bears rank fifth by rebounding 37.7% of their missed shots. Drew’s team is also the tenth-best in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency at kenpom. They force turnovers in 25.9% of their opponent’s possessions, ranking fifth. If there was a weakness to this team, it might start with their defensive rebounding. Baylor allows their opponents to rebound 29.7% of their missed shots, 251st in the nation. The Bears do not get as many freebies on the charity stripe given a free throw rate that is 274th.Kansas had their five-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday in a 75-72 loss in overtime at Texas as a 3-point underdog. Ochai Agbaji scored 17 points to improve his team-leading 13.8 points-per-game scoring average. David McCormack poured in another 12 points with the 6’10 junior averaging 13.0 points-per-game and 6.0 rebounds-per-game. Jalen Wilson contributed 16 points with 13 rebounds. The freshman is scoring 12.8 points-per-game and leads the team with an 8.2 rebounds-per-game mark.The Jayhawks’ improved play stems from a change in defensive tactics by Bill Self. After losing five of seven games, Self instructing his players to be more aggressive in their ball screen coverage. Kansas held their five opponents during their recent winning streak to just 0.81 points-per-possession, which would be the stingiest in the nation if extended to the entire season. The Longhorns scored at a 0.95 points-per-possession clip on Tuesday, which was well below their season average.Kansas can struggle to score baskets. Their 48.7% shooting percentage inside the arc this season is 216th in the nation. The kenpom adjusted offensive efficiency numbers still rank the Jayhawks 55th in the nation. They pull down 31.3% of their misses, 77th in the country. They rank 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency, with their interior defense leading the way. Kansas leads the Big 12 by holding their opponents to just 44.9% shooting inside the arc.The Jayhawks have climbed to 17th in the nation in the Associated Press poll with a 17-8 record. Their 11-6 conference record puts them in third place in the rugged Big 12. Kansas has quality victories against Creighton, West Virginia, Texas Tech (twice), Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. Their five conference losses are against Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Texas (twice). The Jayhawks have also lost to Gonzaga and Tennessee in non-conference action.Baylor won the first meeting between these two teams on January 18th in a 77-69 victory at home in Waco as a 10.5-point favorite. BetAnySports lists the Bears as a 3.5-point road favorite with the total set at 142.Computer Prediction:  Baylor 73 Kansas 70

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NCAA Basketball, NHL and EPL Odds and Previews - 02/27/2021

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Feb 27, 2021

The Saturday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, the NHL, and the English Premier League. The college basketball card tips off at noon ET. Texas Tech hosts Texas on ESPN. The Red Raiders are ranked 18th by the Associated Press, and the Longhorns are 14th in the latest AP poll. Texas Tech is a 3.5-point favorite. Michigan travels to Indiana on CBS with the third-ranked Wolverines an 8-point road favorite with the total set at 138.5. Georgetown visits DePaul on FS1 as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 142. Liberty plays at Bellarmine on ESPNU as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 129.5. Wisconsin plays at home against Illinois on ESPN at 2 PM ET. The Badgers rank 23rd by the AP, with the Fighting Illini ranking 5th. Wisconsin is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5. Arkansas is at home against LSU on ESPN2, with the 20th ranked Razorbacks a 5-point favorite with the total at 161. Arizona hosts Washington on CBS as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 145.5. Davidson hosts VCU on ESPNU as a 3-point favorite with a total of 133. Rice is at Louisiana Tech on the CBS Sports Network in a rematch of their Friday game. UConn is at home against Marquette on Fox at 2:30 PM ET as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 135. Oklahoma plays at home against Oklahoma State on ABC at 3 PM ET. The seventh-ranked Sooners are a 5-point favorite with a total of 139.West Virginia hosts Kansas State on ESPN2 at 4 PM ET with the tenth-ranked Mountaineers a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 139. Florida State travels to North Carolina on ESPN with the 11th-ranked Seminoles a 3-point road favorite with a total of 150.5. San Diego State hosts Boise State on the CBS Sports Network as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. Oregon visits California on FS1 as a 9.5-point road favorite with a total of 133. Central Florida is at home against Temple on ESPNU as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. Kentucky plays at home against Florida on CBS as a 2.5-point favorite as a 2.5-point favorite with the total set at 141.Creighton travels to Xavier on Fox at 5 PM ET. The 13th-ranked Bluejays are a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 148.5. Duke is at home against Louisville on ESPN at 6 PM with the Blue Devils a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 142.5. TCU visits Iowa State on ESPNU in a pick ‘em matchup with an over/under of 140.5. Loyola-Chicago hosts Southern Illinois on ESPN2 with the 21st-ranked Ramblers playing the Salukis in a rematch of their Friday contest. Northern Iowa is at Illinois State on the CBS Sports Network in a rematch of their Friday encounter. Baylor plays at Kansas on ESPN at 8 PM ET. The Bears are ranked second in the nation, with the Jayhawks ranked 17th. Baylor is a 5-point road favorite with the total at 142. USC visits Utah on ESPN2 with the 19th-ranked Trojans a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 137.5. North Carolina AT&T is at home against North Carolina Central on ESPNU as a 3.5-point favorite with the total of 138. Gonzaga hosts Loyola-Marymount on ESPN at 10 PM ET. The number one-ranked Bulldogs are a 25-point favorite with an over/under of 153. BYU plays at home against Saint Mary’s on ESPNU as an 8-point favorite with the total at 129.5. Colorado is at home against UCLA on ESPN2 as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5.Seven games are on the NBA docket. Dallas plays at Brooklyn on ABC at 8:30 PM ET. The Mavericks come off a 111-097 loss at Philadelphia as a 4.5-point underdog on Thursday. The Nets have won seven straight with their 129-92 victory against Orlando as an 8.5-point favorite on Thursday.The NHL has 14 games on the Saturday slate. Three games begin the schedule at 1 PM ET. The NHL card concludes at 10:30 PM ET with Saint Louis playing at San Jose State as a -160 money line road favorite with the total at 5.5. None of the NHL games are on national television. Matchweek 26 of the English Premier League begins on Saturday with four matches. Manchester City plays at home against West Ham United on the NBC Sports Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -1.75 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3. Brighton and Hove Albion visits West Brom Albion on the NBC Sports Network at 10 AM ET as a -0.5 goal line road favored with a total of 2.25. Leeds United hosts Aston Villa on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -0.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3. Wolverhampton plays at Newcastle United on the NBC Peacock app at 3 PM ET as a -0.25 goal line road favorite with the total set at 2.25.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Basketball, NHL and NBA Odds and Previews - 02/26/2021

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Feb 26, 2021

The Friday sports card features action in NCAA basketball, the NBA, and the NHL. The college basketball card tips off at noon ET with Canisius visiting Niagara as a 2-point road favorite with the total set at 137.5 (all odds from BetOnline).The nationally-televised college basketball card starts at 7 PM ET. Penn State hosts Purdue on FS1. The Nittany Lions, 8-12, snapped a four-game losing streak with an 86-83 victory at Nebraska as a 6.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Boilermakers improved to 15-8 with a 75-58 win at Nebraska as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. Penn State is a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 140.Saint Louis plays at home against Richmond on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET. The Billikens fell to 11-5 on Tuesday with their 67-65 upset loss at VUC as a 3-point favorite. The Spiders raised their record to 13-5 on Tuesday with a 79-65 win against UMass as a 10-point favorite. Saint Louis is a 5-point favorite with a total of 144.5.Marshall is at home against North Texas on ESPNU at 7 PM ET. The Thundering Herd, 12-5, won their fifth in six games with a 96-85 win against Middle Tennessee as a 17-point favorite back on February 13th. The Mean Green, 12-6, have won seven of their last eight after winning at Southern Mississippi, 68-56, as a 9.5-point favorite on February 13th. Marshall is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 142.5.Northern Iowa visits Illinois State on ESPNU at 9 PM ET. The Panthers fell to 7-15 with a 77-69 loss to Drake as a 4-point underdog on February 17th. The Redbirds improved to 7-15 with an 88-71 upset win at Bradley as a 2.5-point underdog last Thursday. Northern Iowa is a 3-point road favorite with the total at 142.Utah State hosts Nevada on FS1 at 9 PM ET. The Aggies dropped to 14-7 with an 81-77 loss at Boise State as a 2-point underdog last Friday. The Wolf Pack, 13-7, won their fourth in a row with a 73-62 upset win against Boise State as a 5-point underdog on February 7th. Utah State is a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 142.Georgia State plays at South Alabama on ESPN2 at 9 PM ET. The Panthers, 12-5, won their fourth in a row on Tuesday with their 85-71 win against Appalachian State as a 6.5-point favorite. The Jaguars, 16-8, won their eighth straight game with a 56-54 win at Appalachian State as a 3-point underdog on Saturday. Georgia State is a 2-point road favorite with a total of 143.5.UNLV is at home against Fresno State on the CBS Sports Network at 11 PM ET. The Rebels fell to 10-12 with a 67-64 upset loss at Fresno State as a 7-point favorite on Wednesday. The Bulldogs improved to 10-9 with the victory. UNLV is a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 130.5.UC-Santa Barbara travels to UC-Riverside on ESPN2 at 11 PM ET. The Gauchos improved to 15-3 with a 63-44 victory against UC-Bakersfield as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. The Highlanders fell to 10-6 with an 83-82 upset loss at Cal-San Diego as an 8-point favorite last Saturday. UC-Santa Barbara is a 3-point road favorite with the total at 131.5.Nine games are on the NBA docket. An ESPN doubleheader begins at 7:30 PM ET with Boston hosting Indiana. The Celtics have been upset in three straight games after losing at Atlanta, 127-112, as a 1-point favorite on Wednesday. The Pacers have lost two of three after their 111-109 upset loss to Golden State as a 2-point favorite. Boston is a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 219.5.The Los Angeles Lakers play at home against Portland in the nightcap on ESPN at 10 PM ET. The Lakers lost their fourth in a row on Wednesday in a 114-89 loss at Utah. The Trail Blazers have lost three in a row after a 111-106 loss at Denver as a 6-point underdog on Tuesday. Los Angeles is a 5.5-point favorite with the total at 222.Three games are on the NHL schedule. The card begins at 7 PM ET, with Boston visiting the New York Rangers. The slate concludes at 9 PM ET with Colorado visiting Arizona as a -169 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5.

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