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Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL, NCAA Basketball and NFL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Nov 29, 2020

The Sunday sports card features the continuation of Week 12 of the National Football League along with college basketball and three matches in the English Premier League.The NFL has 12 games scheduled for Sunday. Eight games begin the card at 1 PM ET. The national broadcast on Fox has Arizona playing at New England, with the Cardinals' 2-point road favorites with the total set at 49. The primary game on CBS has Buffalo playing at home against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 52. Three more games take place in the 4:05 PM ET to 4:20 PM ET window of afternoon games. At 4:05 PM ET, San Francisco visits Los Angeles with the Rams a 7-point favorite with the total at 44.5. Denver hosts New Orleans at 4:05 PM ET despite their three quarterbacks ruled ineligible for this game on Saturday after they were in close contact with another player who tested positive for COVID (presumably reserve quarterback Jeff Driskel). Running back Royce Freeman is their emergency quarterback while wide receiver Kendall Hinton on their practice squad played quarterback at Wake Forest before switching positions. The Saints are now 14.5-point road favorites, with the total dropping to 36.5. At 4:25 PM ET on CBS, Kansas City visits Tampa Bay as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 56.5.The Sunday night game on NBC is between the top two teams in the NFC North. Green Bay holds a two-game lead over Chicago for first place in the division with their 7-3 record. A victory would move them three games ahead of the Bears with their 5-5 current mark. However, if Chicago pulls the upset, then they would trail the Packers by just one game with them hosting the rematch in Week 17 at home in Soldier Field. Green Bay is a 9.5-point favorite with the total set at 44. Kickoff is shortly after 8:20 PM ET.The nationally-televised college basketball card begins at 1 PM ET with Richmond visiting Kentucky on ESPN. The Wildcats are 7-point favorites with a total of 144.5. South Carolina will be playing Tulsa at 1 PM ET on a neutral court in Kansas City on ESPN2. At 3:30 PM ET on that neutral court in Kansas City, ESPN2 will broadcast Liberty playing TCU.At 4:30 PM ET, FS1 has North Dakota State playing at Creighton. On ESPN2, Texas Tech plays Houston on a neutral court in Fort Worth, Texas at 5:30 PM ET. The Red Raiders are 3-point favorites with the over/under at 136.5. ESPNU has San Francisco playing Rhode Island at 5:30 PM ET on a neutral court in the mini-bubble in Uncasville, Connecticut. The college basketball card concludes at 8 PM ET with South Florida playing Virginia Tech on the neutral court in Uncasville. ESPN2 has the broadcast. Matchweek 10 of the English Premier League continues with three matches. At 9 AM ET, Manchester United travels to Southampton as a -0.5 goal line favorite with the total set at 2.75. Chelsea hosts Tottenham at 11:30 AM ET as a -0.25 goal line favorite with the over/under at 2.75. Arsenal hosts Wolverhampton at 2:15 PM ET as a -0.5 goal line favorite with a total of 2.25. The NBC Sports Network broadcasts all three games. 

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NFL Sunday Night Football: Packers/Bears Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Nov 29, 2020

The Sunday night game on NBC is between the top two teams in the NFC North. Green Bay holds a two-game lead over Chicago for first place in the division with their 7-3 record. A victory would move them three games ahead of the Bears with their 5-5 current mark. However, if Chicago pulls the upset, then they would trail the Packers by just one game with them hosting the rematch in Week 17 at home in Soldier Field. Green Bay opened the season with four straight victories, but they have split out their last six games. They saw the end of their two-game winning streak last Sunday in a 34-31 loss at Indianapolis as a 1.5-point underdog. The Packers went into halftime with a 28-14 lead but were outscored by a 20-3 margin the rest of the way. The Colts outgained Green Bay by 420-367 yards. Aaron Rodgers completed 27 of 38 passes for 311 yards with three touchdown passes and an interception in the losing effort. Rodgers is completing 68.2% of his passes this season for 2889 passing yards, which are fifth-most in the NFL. Rodgers has 29 touchdown passes with only four interceptions. His 115.8 passer rating is tops in the league. He leads an offense that is third in the NFL by averaging 30.8 points-per-game. Chicago opened the season with a 5-1 record but have since lost four straight games. They last played on Monday Night Football on November 16th, where they lost at home to Minnesota by a 19-13 score. The Bears’ managed to gain only 149 yards while being on the field for just over 24 minutes of that game. Nick Foles was knocked out of the game in the fourth quarter with hip and glute injuries that leave him doubtful to play in this game. Head coach Matt Nagy has named Mitchell Trubisky as the starting quarterback after he has been out with a shoulder injury. Trubisky started the first three games of the season before losing the quarterback job to Foles. The former number one pick in the draft has completed only 59.3% of his passes for 560 yards with six touchdown passes and three interceptions. He has also rushed for 90 yards on ten carries. This game will be his first start with offensive coordinator Bill Lazor calling the plays. Nagy handed the play-calling over to Lazor two games ago, but it has not made a difference in the Bears’ productivity on offense. Chicago is scoring only 19.1 points-per-game this season while ranking second-to-last with a 300.9 yards-per-game average. Trubisky will be getting some help in the backfield with the return of running back David Montgomery, who has been out going through the concussion protocol. Montgomery has rushed for 472 yards on 131 carries this season. Converted wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson had 12 of the team’s 17 carries last week. Chicago has five players listed as questionable for this game. Linebacker Akiem Hicks is dealing with a hamstring. Defensive backs Sherrick McManis and Buster Skrine have hand and ankle injuries. Offensive linemen Charles Leno, Jr. and Rashaad Coward are dealing with a toe and ankle. Green Bay removed 15 players from their injury list on Friday, including wide receiver Davante Adams who participated in full practice that day. Wide receivers Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown are questionable with an Achilles and a knee. Cornerback Kevin King and center Corey Linsley are also questionable with injuries. BetAnySports lists Green Bay as a 9.5-point favorite with the total set at 44. Kickoff is shortly after 8:20 PM ET.

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NBA Upcoming Season + Projections

by AAA Sports

Sunday, Nov 29, 2020

The NBA is scheduled to start up again on December 22nd 2020, right before Christmas. Originally it was supposed to begin in the early New Year, but now,  everyone is getting ready for the new start date. During the short offseason, there have been many moves, and some good FA pickups for some teams. Programs like the Hawks, Warriors, Hornets, Pelicans, Suns, TWolves and more, have all improved over the break and could possibly make a run into this seasons' playoffs. The Hawks are my sleeper team as their new projected starting lineup is: Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Galiinari, John Collins and Clint Capela.  The NBA has also confirmed that there will be a play-in tournament to finish off the season to decide the 7 and 8 seeds. The teams to finish 7-10 all have a chance this season. After the season ends, the #7 seed will host the #8 seed. The winner of that game will then secure the #7 seed in the playoffs. On the other hand, the #9 seed will play the #10 seed to be the potential #8. The winner of that game will then play the loser of the 7/8 to get the Final #8 seed going into the postseason. Therefore, I believe that teams will never let up this season, as some teams do, in order to not be one of those play-in games. And who knows what could happen. One team just has to get hot at the right time and that could possibly cause difficulties for the #1. Although Atlanta is my sleeper team, there are many teams that I wouldn't be surprised if they made a run in the playoffs this season. I believe that this year might be one of the most entertaining season's in history, as the association continues to get more and more talent into the league.  ROTW: Lamelo Ball DPOY: Anthony Davis MVP: Steph Curry Eastern Champs: Miami Heat Western Champs: LA Clippers NBA Champ: Heat in 7 games

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NCAA Saturday Night Football: Utah/Washington Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Nov 28, 2020

The Saturday night game on ABC involved a rescheduled game on the fly this week with COVID issues impacting both teams. The annual Apple Cup showdown between Washington and Washington State got canceled due to a COVID outbreak in the Cougars’ program. Utah then had their game with Arizona State postponed on Tuesday, given COVID issues with the Sun Devils. The Pac-12 arranged for these two teams to meet with ABC deciding to pick up the game. Utah has already had their games, with Arizona and UCLA, postponed this season due to COVID. The Utes played their first game of the season last Saturday in a 31-17 upset loss at home to USC as a 1-point favorite. Utah has been outscored by at least two touchdowns and a 106-42 margin in their last three contests. Kyle Whittingham had his program in a position to play in the college football playoff last season for the Pac-12 championship game with an 11-1 record. But Utah was throttled in that game by a 37-15 score to Oregon. Whittingham then took his 11-2 winning record in bowl games into the Alamo Bowl, but his team appeared to have lost their spirit as they were blown out by a 38-10 score to Texas. Whittingham went into the offseason having to replace quarterback Tyler Huntley, running back Zack Moss, and nine starters on a defense that was second in the nation by holding their opponents to just 269.2 yards-per-game. Nine starters returned for Whittingham in his 16th season with the program. He also had two new transfers at quarterback. Cameron Rising, coming over from Texas, won the job in the fall. Yet after completing 3 of 6 passes for 45 yards in the first quarter last week, the redshirt sophomore suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in his third drive with the team. Senior Jake Bentley, a transfer from South Carolina, took over to complete 16 of 28 passes for 171 yards. Bentley will take over as the starting quarterback moving forward. Utah turned the ball over five times against the Trojans, with Bentley and Rising combining for three interceptions. The Utes’ defense did recover a fumble, which they returned for a 32-yard touchdown. Despite the 14-point loss, Utah was only outgained by a 357-327 margin. Washington won their first two games under rookie head coach Jimmy Lake after their 44-27 victory at home over Arizona last week. The final score is not indicative of the domination effort for the Huskies, who had a 37-0 lead in the fourth quarter before the Wildcats scored their 27 points in garbage time. Washington outgained Arizona by a 472-331 margin while being on offense for more than 37 minutes of that game. The Huskies won their opening game of the season at home against Oregon State by a 27-21 score. It has been a good start for Lake, who served as the defensive coordinator for former head coach Chris Pederson before his surprise retirement last fall. Twelve starters return from the group that finished a disappointing 8-5 after a subpar 4-5 mark in the Pac-12. Washington did send Pederson out a winner with their 38-7 victory against his former team in Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Huskies defense has eight starters back from the unit that was 35th in the nation by allowing 348.6 yards-per-game. Washington has improved on that number in their first two games as those opponents have averaged only 291.5 yards-per-game. Lake tapped redshirt freshman Dylan Morris has his starting quarterback to replace Jacob Eason under center. Morris completed 15 of 25 passes for 230 yards with two touchdowns and without an interception in an efficient effort against the Wildcats last week.Utah defeated Washington in Husky Stadium by a 33-28 score last year. BetAnySports lists the Huskies as a 7-point favorite tonight, with the total set at 47.5. The ABC broadcast starts at 7:30 PM ET.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL, NCAA Basketball and NCAA Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Nov 28, 2020

The Saturday sports card features a full day of college football and college basketball action along with the continuation of Matchweek 10 of the English Premier League. Thirty-seven games between FBS opponents are on the college football schedule. There were twelve games canceled due to COVID issues: Ohio State/Illinois; Miami (FL)/Wake Forest; Louisiana Tech/Florida International; Arkansas/Missouri; Tennessee/Vanderbilt; Tulsa/Houston; Minnesota/Wisconsin; Utah/Arizona State; Cincinnati/Temple; Oklahoma/West Virginia; Colorado/USC; Florida Atlantic/Middle Tennessee. Two games got rescheduled for Saturday amidst these postponements: Colorado State at San Diego State and Utah at Washington. Nineteen college football games take place in the noon ET to 3 PM ET window. Thirteen games kick off the card at noon ET. Michigan hosts Penn State on ABC in a pick ‘em contest with the total set at 58 (all odds from BetOnline). Texas Tech visits Oklahoma State on Fox with the Cowboys an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 54. Florida plays at home against Kentucky on ESPN as a 25-point favorite with a total of 60.5. Maryland travels to Indiana on ESPN2 with the Hoosiers 12-point favorites with the over/under at 64. Ohio hosts Bowling Green on ESPNU as a 24-point favorite, with the total at 54.5. On the CBS Sports Network, Buffalo is a 7-point favorite against a visiting Kent State with an over/under of 67. Another nine games take place in the 3:30 PM to 5 PM ET window of games. At 3:30 PM ET, Auburn visits Alabama in the Iron Bowl on CBS with the Crimson Tide 24.5-point favorites and the total set at 62.5. Clemson hosts Pittsburgh now on ABC as a 22.5-point favorite with the over/under at 57. Northwestern travels to Michigan State on ESPN as a 13.5-point road favorite with a total of 41.5. ESPN2 has Troy playing at Appalachian State in a game moved up from its initial 8 PM ET time slot. The Mountaineers are 13-point favorites with the over/under at 48.5. At 4 PM ET, Boise State hosts San Jose State on Fox as an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 58. Rutgers travels to Purdue on FS1, where the Boilermakers are 11-point favorites with the over/under set at 60.5. A final ten games take place in the evening card. At 7 PM ET, LSU travels to Texas A&M on ESPN with the Aggies a 14-point favorite with the total at 62. Baylor hosts Kansas State on ESPN2 as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 44.5. Memphis visits Navy on the CBS Sports Network as a 13.5-point road favorite with the total at 62.5. Washington hosts Utah on 7:30 PM ET as the rescheduled game on ABC. The Utes are a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 47.5.At 8 PM ET, Arizona visits UCLA on Fox with the Bruins' 10.5-point favorites and the total set at 69. Kansas hosts TCU on FS1 with the Horned Frogs -24-point road favorites with an over/under of 51.5.The only nationally-televised game in college basketball is at 8 PM ET on ESPNU scheduled in the last 24 hours. Villanova found an opponent in the mini-bubble in Uncasville, Connecticut in Virginia Tech who will make the trip after the Wildcats won the 2K Empire Classic on Thursday. Villanova is an 8.5-point favorite, with the total set at 137.5.Four matches take place in the English Premier League. At 7:30 AM ET, Liverpool visits Brighton as a -1 goal line road favorite with the total at 3. The NBC Peacock app broadcasts the game. Manchester City hosts Burnley at 10 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network as a -3.25 goal line favorite with an over/under of 3.25. At 12:30 PM ET on NBC, Everton hosts Leeds United as a -0.50 goal line favorite with the total at 3. Sheffield United visits West Bromwich United at 3 PM ET on the NBC Sports Network in a pick ‘em with an over/under of 2.25.

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Ness Notes: Friday, Nov 27

by Larry Ness

Friday, Nov 27, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."Thanksgiving recap: Detroit and Dallas traditionally host Thanksgiving games and yesterday, they sure allowed their 'guests' to walk away VERY happy! Detroit head coach Matt Patricia was said to be on the 'hot seat' entering this season and with his record falling to 13-29-1 in his tenure with the Lions, that seat is now likely 'on fire!' The Texans entered the season having won the AFC South FOUR times in the previous five seasons but Thursday's win will do little for them in 2020. Deshaun Watson had a big game, throwing for 318 yards with four TDs and no INTs in the 41-25 victory but Houston is just 4-7 on the season. Watson now has 15 TD passes without a SINGLE interception over his last six games but Houston has gone only 3-3 in that span.I guess we can no longer say "Hail to the Redskins" but I'll risk it to congratulate the Washington FB Team for moving into first-place in the sad-sack NFC East at 4-7, after its 41-16 win over the "How 'bout dem Cowboys!" One HAS to feel really good for Alex Smith, who is back after nearly losing his leg (AND life) to an injury just over two years ago. He had 390 passing yards in a loss to the Lions back in Week 10 but these last two games, while he's thrown for just 166 and 149 yards (two TDs / two INTS), Washington has won BOTH games. Kudos go to rookie RB Antonio Gibson who ran for 115 yards and three TDs vs Dallas, after gaining 94 yards in the win over Cincy. Plus, "How 'bout that Washington D?" It's allowed just 25 points the last two games on 259.5 YPG. Week 12 resumes Sunday and check out Thursday's Notes for a preview.The 2020-21 college basketball season tipped off on Wednesday and while there were no games between ranked opponents, 17 ranked schools played unranked opponents 16 of the 17 won, going an impressive 12-5 ATS. No. 22 UCLA (one FINAL reminder for me!) was the only loser, falling 73-58 at San Diego St. SIX top-10 schools played on Wednesday, as No. 3 Villanova,  No. 4 Virginia, No. 5 Iowa, No. 7 Wisconsin, No. 8 Illinois and No. 10 Kentucky all won, although 'Nova and Wisconsin failed to cover. Thanksgiving Day featured two top-25 matchups, the "marquee" one being Gonzaga, the nation's preseason No. 1 team, meeting No. 6 Kansas, which was the AP's No.1 ranked team in last year's "unfinished season." The Bulldogs opened a double-digit lead in the first half and while Kansa tied it up twice in the second half, Gonzaga used a 22-7 run to up 96-78 and win, 102-90. Returning players the 6-10 Timme (25 & 6) and the 6-7b Kispert (23 & 4) plus 6-4 freshman guard Suggs (24-4-8 in his first game), gave the Bulldogs THREE, 20-point scorers (Gonzaga shot 64.5% from the floor). The second top-25 matchup was No. 3 Villanova beating No. 18 Arizona St for the 2K Empire Classic title. No. 8 Illinois and No. 15 West Vs won and covered, giving ranked teams a 18-1 (.947) SU start to the season, while also going 14-5 (73.7%) ATS. Friday does not feature any top-25 matchups but NINE top-25 teams will play, including FIVE top-10 teams. No 1 Gonzaga plays Auburn (-18), No. 5 Iowa is home to Southern (-27), No. 6 Kansas meets St Joe's (-18), No. 7 Wisconsin is home to Arkansas-Pine Bluff (-34) and No. 8 Illinois is home to Ohio U (-17).The CFB weekend kicks off with NINE games on Friday, with FIVE ranked teams in action, including top-25 matchups (note: I will continue to use the AP rankings, not the CFP ones) between No. 2 Notre Dame (-5.5) at No. 25 North Carolina and No. 15 Iowa St (-1) at No. 20 Texas. Saturday will feature just ONE, top-25 matchup, as No. 1 Alabama (without head coach Nick Saban because of a positive COVID-19 test) hosting No. 22 Auburn in the annual Iron Bowl ('Bama is favored by 25.5). Higher ranked teams are 18-5 SU and 16-7 ATS in meetings between top-25 opponents in the college football season to-date. Beginning with No. 9 Oregon (-13) playing at Oregon St in the annual "Civil War" on Friday, there are 11 games featuring ranked teams playing unranked teams. Unfortunately, FIVE ranked teams had their games postponed or canceled. That group includes No. 7 Cincinnati, No. 14 Oklahoma at West Va, No. 18 Wisconsin at home to Minnesota, No 19 USC home to Colorado and No. 24 Tulsa at Houston. Top-10 teams that ARE playing unranked opponents include No. 3 Ohio St (-28) at Illinois,  No. 4 Clemson (-23.5) home to Pitt, No. 5 Texas A&M (-15) home to LSU, No. 6 Florida (25.5) home to Kentucky and No. 9 Oregon at Oregon St on Friday (see above).Ranked teams went a perfect 14-0 SU against unranked opponents from Nov 3-7 but still could NOT win more than 50 percent ATS, going 6-7-1. However, when 'all the dust had settled' from the week of Nov 10-15, ranked teams had gone 12-1 SU against unranked opponents (then-No. 19 SMU's loss to Tulsa being the exception) and more significantly, a MONEY-MAKING 11-2 ATS! That trend continued in last week's games (Nov 17-21), as ranked teams went 11-1 SU and a solid 8-4 ATS. That's a three-week run of 37-2 (.949) SU and 25-13-1 (65.8%) ATS. The Y-T-D numbers are 105-24 (.814) SU and 61-66-2 (48.0%) ATS. Can (will) ranked teams finally go over .500 ATS after this Thanksgiving weekend?Good luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL, NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Nov 27, 2020

The Friday sports card features a full day of college football and college basketball action along with the first game in Matchweek 10 of the English Premier League. Nine games are on the college football schedule. There were three games canceled due to COVID issues: Southern Mississippi/UAB; San Diego State/Fresno State; Washington/Washington State.Texas hosts Iowa State at noon ET on ABC with the Longhorns a 1-point favorite with the total set at 56.5 (all odds from BetOnline). Nebraska visits Iowa at 1 PM ET on Fox with the Hawkeyes 14-point favorites with an over/under of 53.5.At 3:30 PM ET, Notre Dame travels to North Carolina on ABC as a 6-point road favorite with a total of 69. On ESPN, Central Florida plays at South Florida as a 24.5-point road favorite with a total of 67.At 4 PM ET, Stanford travels to play at California as 2-point road favorites on Fox with the over/under set at 52. Wyoming visits UNLV on FS1 as a 16.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 52. Central Michigan plays at Eastern Michigan on the CBS Sports Network as a 7-point road favorite with the total at 59.The lone game under the lights takes place at 7:30 PM ET with Oregon visiting Oregon State on ESPN as a 13-point road favorite with an over/under of 64.The nationally-televised college basketball card starts at 11 AM ET  with the finals of the Fort Myers Tip-Off in Florida. Gonzaga plays Auburn on Fox as a 17-point favorite with a total of 160. At 11:30 AM ET, Virginia plays San Francisco on ESPN on a neutral court in Uncasville, Connecticut, as a 13-point favorite with an over/under of 125.West Virginia plays Western Kentucky in the finals of the Crossover Classic on ESPN as an 8-point favorite with the total set at 151 in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.At 2 PM ET, Kansas plays Saint Joseph’s on a neutral court in Fort Myers on FS1. The Jayhawks are 18.5-point favorites with an over/under of 156. Texas Tech hosts Sam Houston State on ESPNU as a 31.5-point favorite with the over/under at 145.5. At 4 PM ET, Louisville hosts Seton Hall on ESPN2 as a 6-point favorite with a total of 143.5. Northern Iowa plays Utah State on a neutral court in Sioux Falls on ESPNU as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 144. South Dakota State plays Saint Mary’s in Sioux Falls on ESPN at 6:30 PM ET with the Jackrabbits a 2.5-point favorite with the total at 140. Colorado travels to Kansas State on ESPNU at 8:30 PM ET with the Buffaloes 6.5-point road favorites with the over/under set at 134.5. Memphis plays VCU in Sioux Falls at 9 PM ET on ESPN2 as a 7-point favorite with a total of 142.The English Premier League begins Matchweek 10 at 3 PM ET with Crystal Palace hosting Newcastle United as a -0.25 goal line favorite with the over/under at 2.25. The match is on the NBC Sports Network. 

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NCAA Friday Football: Notre Dame/North Carolina Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Nov 27, 2020

The Friday afternoon game on ABC at 3:30 PM ET is perhaps Notre Dame’s biggest test in their aspirations to play in the ACC championship game before earning a potential bid to the college football playoffs. The undefeated Fighting Irish travel to Chapel Hill to play a dangerous North Carolina team that is 6-2.Notre Dame appears to control their destiny to become one of the four teams in the playoff after being ranked second in the first playoff poll this week. The Fighting Irish have a signature 47-40 victory over Clemson in double-overtime. Notre Dame has three regular-season games left on their schedule with potential opponents, including Miami (FL) and a rematch with the Tigers, as both teams have only one loss in conference play. The Fighting Irish had last week off to prepare for this game after winning their eighth straight game by defeating Boston College on the road on November 14th by a 45-31 score as a 13-point favorite. Quarterback Ian Book completed 20 of 27 passes for 283 yards with three touchdown passes to lead his team to victory. The senior added another 85 rushing yards with a touchdown on the ground. Book is completing 62% of his passes this season for 1818 yards with 11 touchdown passes and just one interception. He has rushed for an additional 364 yards with six touchdowns. Running back Kyren Williams complements Book with a 97.1 rushing yards-per-game average. Notre Dame is scoring 37.6 points-per-game while averaging 462.8 yards-per-game. The Fighting Irish defense is holding their opponents to only 16.6 points-per-game along with 304.1 yards-per-game. Those statistics rank eleventh and ninth in the nation. Notre Dame has won six of their eight games by at least two touchdowns. However, they have given up 71 combined points in their last two games (including the double-overtime nail-biter with Clemson).North Carolina ranks 19th in the initial college football playoff rankings. They also had last week off after railing from a 21-point deficit on November 14th to defeat Wake Forest by a 59-53 score. The Tar Heels generated 742 yards of offense in the victory. Yet they have also allowed the Demon Deacons to gain 606 yards against their defense. North Carolina is tenth in the nation with a 43.1 points-per-game scoring average while averaging 563.4 yards-per-game. But the Tar Heels are allowing 30.8 points-per-game along with 413.6 yards-per-game. Sophomore quarterback Sam Howell completed 32 of 45 passes for 550 yards with six touchdown passes and an interception in the comeback victory over Wake Forest. He also rushed for a touchdown. Howell is completing 67.7% of his passes for 2631 yards with 23 touchdown passes and six interceptions. He is averaging 328.9 passing yards-per-game and leads the ACC with 12 completions of over 40 yards. The running back duo of Michael Carter and Javonte Williams has combined for 1675 yards with 19 touchdowns. North Carolina’s two losses were to Florida State and Virginia in games where they surrendered 31 and 44 points. Yet the Tar Heels have scored 105 combined points in their last two games while putting at least 41 points on the scoreboard in four straight games. With a 6-2 conference record, an upset victory over the Fighting Irish would put North Carolina in contention to play in the ACC championship game. BetAnySports lists Notre Dame as a 6.5-point road favorite with the total set at 69.

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Ness Notes: Thursday, Nov 26

by Larry Ness

Thursday, Nov 26, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."The 2020-21 college basketball season tipped off on Wednesday and just like in college football, COVID-19 issues will continue to force postponements and cancellations until a vaccine can be distributed. The final count was 32 games either canceled (27) or postponed (5). The most notable cancellation was No. 2 Baylor and No. 18 Arizona's tourney game being played at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. Three other ranked schools fell into that category as well, as No. 9 Duke and No. 20 Oregon postponed their respective games, while No.12 Tennessee canceled its game. However, Arizona St was able to quickly reschedule and played Rhode Island at the 2K Empire Sports Classic in Uncasville, Ct. ASU was one of 17 ranked schools to play on Wednesday and 16 of the 17 won, going an impressive 12-5 ATS. No. 22 UCLA (DON'T remind me!) was the only loser, falling 73-58 at San Diego St. SIX top-10 schools played on Wednesday, as No. 3 Villanova,  No. 4 Virginia, No. 5 Iowa, No. 7 Wisconsin, No. 8 Illinois and No. 10 Kentucky all won, although 'Nova and Wisconsin failed to cover. It's a busy Thanksgiving Day schedule and so far, just four games have been canceled. The "marquee" matchup is Kansas taking on Gonzaga at the Fort Myers Tip-Off in Melbourne, Fl. Kansas was ranked No. 1 in the final poll of the unfinished 2019-20 CBB season and Gonzaga (which finished No. 2 Kansas) opens No. 1 in the AP's preseason poll this year (Kansas is No. 6). The game tips at 1:30 ET on FOX, with Gonzaga favored by four points. No. 3 Villanova and No. 18 Arizona St meet in the 2K Empire Classic, giving us the first two of what will be many meetings between ranked opponents throughout the season (Villanova is favored by 4 1/2-points). Two more ranked teams play on Thursday, No. 8 Illinois at home against Chicago St (Illinois is favored by 39 points) and No. 15 West Va at the Crossover Classic against VCU in Sioux Falls, SD (West Va is favored by 9 1/2-points).NFL Week 12 was scheduled to kick off with THREE games on Thanksgiving but COVID-19 had "other ideas." 10-0 Pittsburgh was expected to host 6-4 Baltimore Thanksgiving evening but that game has been moved to Sunday (fingers crossed). Going on as scheduled will be Detroit and Dallas hosting their annual Thanksgiving games. The Houston Texans entered the 2020 season having won the AFC South in FOUR of the previous five years but will visit Detroit with just a 3-7 record. The Lions check in at 4-6 and are almost guaranteed to miss the playoffs for the 18th time in the 21 seasons since 2000. The game kicks off at 12:30 ET on CBS, with Texans favored by three points (over/under is 51). Of note is the fact that Detroit’s Matthew Stafford is set to make his 10th career Thanksgiving Day start, which would tie Troy Aikman for the most in NFL history. Stafford is 4-5 in those starts and it may surprise some (it did me), that Aikman was just 5-5. Washington visits Dallas at 4:30 ET in a game televised by FOX. Washington and Dallas each enter the contest at 3-7 on the season but the winner will own first place in the cynically-named "NFC Least!" That is until Monday, when the 3-6-1 Eagles will have a chance to regain the division lead if they can upset the Seahawks. Dallas is favored by three points and the over/under is 46. Moving ahead to Sunday, let's start at the top and the bottom! The Pittsburgh Steelers are 10-0 and New York Jets are 0-10. This marks just the SIXTH time in the Super Bowl era in which a team has opened 10-0 and another 0-10 in the same season. The most recent occurrence was back in 2011, when the Packers and Colts did so. Green Bay would go 15-1 but lose their first playoff game (at home to the Giants), while the Colts finished 2-14 in a season in which Peyton Manning never played because of a neck injury. Prior to the Steelers starting 10-0 this season, 17 teams have started 10-0 in the Super Bowl era. Of those teams, SIX won the Super Bowl (2009 Saints, 1998 Broncos, 1991 Washington, 1990 Giants, 1985 Bears and undefeated 1972 Dolphins). Of the 21 previous teams to start 0-10 in the Super Bowl era, just THREE ended up winless with the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns going 0-16 and the expansion 1976 Buccaneers losing all 14 games. Enough history.Baltimore won its final 12 games of the 2019 regular season to finish 14-2 but then got upset in its first playoff game, 28-12 at home by the Titans. The 6-4 Ravens are in real danger of missing the postseason in 2020, as they've fallen short in EVERY important game so far. Will that change here in Pittsburgh? The Steelers are favored by four points and the over/under is 45 . The NY Jets have lost 10 straight games in the same season for the first time in club history and they are two losses from matching their longest losing streak ever, a 12-game skid that bridged the 1995-96 seasons. New York will host a 6-4 Miami team which comes in after seeing its five-game winning streak snapped last Sunday in a 20-13 loss at Denver. Miami is favored by seven points and the over/under is 44. The Steelers and Jets own the longest active winning and losing streaks in 2020, respectively. However, the 8-2 Saints opened the season 1-2, before winning their last SEVEN (just 4-3 ATS but have three straight ATS wins). The Saints will be in Denver to take on the 4-6 Broncos and are favored by six points (over/under is 43 1/2). The Jacksonville Jaguars upset the now 7-3 Colts 27-20 in Week 1 as a seven-point home dog but have since lost NINE in a row, going 3-6 ATS. The Jags host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday, a team which is trying to navigate a COVID-19 outbreak. However, through it all, the Browns enter 7-3 and look as if they will have their first winning season since 2007 and could make the playoffs for the first time since 2003! Cleveland is favored by 6 1/2-points and the over/under is 49 .Speaking of the 7-3 Indianapolis Colts, they will host the Tennessee Titans (also 7-3), with the winner taking the lead in the AFC South. The Colts just beat the Titans 34-17 at Tennessee in Week 10 and an Indy win would not only give them a one-game lead in the division but a 2-0 season sweep of their division rivals. The Colts are favored by three points and the over/under is 51 1/2. The defending champion KC Chiefs are 9-1 in 2020, as Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 3,035 yards with 27 TD passes and just two INTs in 374 attempts (both INTs have come against the Raiders).  Mahomes will lead the Chiefs, who have won 18 of their last 19 games (including 2019 playoff run), into Tampa for a game with the 7-4 Bucs. Tampa Bay has lost TWO of its last three games, with Brady looking more than a little shaky in the losses (five of his nine INTs have come in those games). The Bucs will have a hard time catching the Saints but even if they lose here, the good news is that after a Week 13 bye, they finish with games against Minnesota, Atlanta, Detroit and Atlanta, again. NONE of those teams own a winning record. However, a win would put Tampa in very good shape in the NFC wild card race. Is this a showdown between the G.O.A.T and the future G.O.A.T? It may just be. KC is favored by  3 1/2-points and the over/under is 56. SNF features 5-5 Chicago at 7-3 Green Bay and MNF has 7-3 Seattle at 3-6-1 Philadelphia. The Packers are favored by 8 1/2-points (over/under is 45) and the Seahawks are favored by five points (over/under is 50). My Friday Notes will recap NFL and CBB action from Thanksgiving but mainly feature Friday and Saturday CFB games.Good luck...Larry

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NFL Stock Rising and Falling: Week 12

by Sean Murphy

Thursday, Nov 26, 2020

December is right around the corner but a lot of teams still haven't separated themselves from the pack in this unique 2020 NFL season. Here's our weekly look around the league at three teams on the rise and three on their way down entering Week 12.Stock RisingNew York GiantsThere's something positive happening in the Meadowlands these days - at least when it comes to one of the two NFL franchises that call New Jersey home. The G-Men are coming off their bye week, which came on the heels of consecutive wins over NFC East opponents. Shockingly enough, they're still alive and kicking in the abysmal NFC East race and this week they're afforded another favorable matchup against the Joe Burrow-less Bengals in Cincinnati. Credit the New York defense for charting a course back to contention and look for another positive performance this week.Tennessee TitansThe Titans were in desperate need of a strong bounce-back performance in a tough matchup in Baltimore last Sunday and they got exactly that. Tennessee may only go as far as RB Derrick Henry can carry them but that's not necessarily a bad thing as he's more than capable of doing the heavy lifting. After this Sunday's date with the Colts the Titans schedule lets up a bit with home games against the Browns and Lions sandwiched around a trip to Jacksonville to face the lowly Jaguars. New Orleans SaintsWhat's not to like about the Saints these days? Their defense has staged an incredible turnaround after a rough start to the season while their offense has shown no signs of slowing down, even with QB Drew Brees sidelined. Few were talking about New Orleans as a true Super Bowl contender leading into the season but that is quickly changing. This Sunday they travel to Denver to face a Broncos squad in a clear letdown spot off a rare victory last week. Stock FallingJacksonville JaguarsThe Jags stock was admittedly not all that high to begin with, but having not won a game since Week 1, and coming off a blowout defeat at the hands of the Steelers (who have a tendency to play down to their competition) we may not have seen their worst just yet. Jacksonville hosts a surging Browns squad this Sunday and will stunningly turn to third-string QB Mike Glennon (yes, he's still in the league). The Cleveland defense has to be salivating at the prospect of teeing off on the statue-like Glennon on Sunday afternoon. Chicago BearsComing off four straight losses and with no reason to believe its offense can get on track, Chicago heads to Green Bay to face what is sure to be a highly-motivated Packers squad this Sunday. The Bears haven't won a game since mid-October and while they will get some relief with a home game against the Lions next week, expect their losing streak to continue as a near double-digit underdog at Lambeau Field. New England Patriots While last Sunday's game in Houston was by no means a must-win situation, the Patriots playoff hopes are quickly diminishing in a crowded AFC field. Now things get tricky with the high-flying Cardinals visiting Foxborough this Sunday before the Pats pack their bags and head for Los Angeles for consecutive games against the Chargers and Rams (in a five-day span). The sputtering and inconsistent New England offense has been the biggest issue but last Sunday the defense just couldn't get off the field, allowing an average Texans offense to go on long, clock-churning drives. Expect more of the same against Arizona.

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Big 10 Conference Football Report - Week 6

by ASA, Inc.

Thursday, Nov 26, 2020

NEBRASKA @ IOWA (-14 OPEN to -13.5 CURRENT) – Friday, November 27th  NEBRASKA – The Huskers looked like they had some momentum after playing Northwestern very tough on the road 3 weeks ago (outgained Wildcats by 130 yards in loss) and then they topped Penn State at home following that game.  With that supposed momentum heading into last weekend, Nebraska went off as a 17 point chalk at home vs Illinois and proceeded to get thumped 41-23.  No fluke here as the Illinois outgained Nebraska by 98 yards and put up 285 yards rushing on the blackshirts.  Speaking of blackshirts, the Huskers donned their all black uniforms on Saturday in an effort to perhaps intimidate Illinois or maybe to round up some extra energy for themselves.  Well they can put those uniforms back where they came from as the Illinois offense ripped them for almost 500 yards and scored 4 TD’s on their first 5 possessions of the game.  The Illini welcomed back starting QB Peters and scored 5 total TD’s after managing only 6 offensive TD’s in their first 3 games.  On offense the Huskers coughed up 5 turnovers including 4 from new starting QB McCaffrey (3 interceptions & 1 fumble).  Nebraska now ranks 118th in TO margin, 121st in 3rd down defense, and 111th in 3rd down offense.  Not a winning combination.  McCaffrey was replaced by former starter Adrian Martinez for Nebraska’s final possession and he led them to a TD.  Both can run the ball but neither has been great through the air as they’ve combined for just 707 yards passing with 2 TD’s and 6 interceptions.  We have another full blown QB controversy in Lincoln heading into Friday’s rivalry game vs Iowa.     NEBRASKA NEXT UP – @ Purdue  IOWA – You could argue the Hawkeyes are playing as well as anyone in the Big 10 right.  After their 41-21 trouncing of Penn State last Saturday, their first win in Happy Valley since 2009, they have now outscored their last 3 opponents 125-35.  An offense that looked fairly pedestrian has taken advantage of their opponent’s turnovers over the last 3 games.  Iowa has a +7 TO margin (9 takeaways & 2 giveaways) in just the last 3 games and they’ve turned those 9 opponent turnovers into 45 points (6 TD’s & 1 FG).  They’ve had 8 TD drives of 55 yards or less in those 3 wins.  In their win last week @ PSU, 24 of their 41 points came directly off 4 Nittany Lion turnovers.  Over their last 3 games, Iowa is averaging 42 PPG on just 370 YPG of offense.  That equates to 1 point for every 8.8 yards gained.  That’s extremely efficient and the takeaways have played a big part in that.  If the offense can keep up that efficiency rate, we don’t think they will, this team should be set because the defense is very good.  The Hawkeye defense now ranks 3rd in the Big Ten in total defense, 3rd in scoring defense, 4th in rush defense, 3rd in pass defense, and 2nd in sacks.  On top of that their 4.3 YPP allowed ranks 1st in the league.  IOWA NEXT UP – @ Illinois   MOST RECENT MEETING – Iowa went to Nebraska as a 4-point favorite last year and won 27-24 with the Huskers getting the close cover.  The Hawkeyes won the game on a 48 yard field goal as time expired.    POINTSPREAD NUGGET – Iowa has won 5 straight in this series with a 3-2 ATS mark in those games.  5 of the last 8 meetings in this series have been decided by one score (8 points or less).  The Hawkeyes are 1-0 ATS as a home favorite this year but leading into the 2020 season, they were just 5-13 ATS their last 18 in that role. PENN STATE @ MICHIGAN (-4 OPEN to -2 CURRENT) - Saturday, November 28th  PENN STATE – We thought the Nittany Lions were in a good spot to pick up their first win last Saturday.  They had been outgaining their opponents on the year despite their 0-4 mark entering last week.  They  showed some fight @ Nebraska after getting down 27-6 and if they could avoid the turnover bug, we felt they had a decent shot at home vs Iowa.  Well they turned the ball over 4 times and dropped to 0-5 for the first time in their history getting smoked 41-21.  They now have 13 turnovers in 5 games and just 4 takeaways.  Not going to win many, or any, games with those TO margin numbers.  Will Levis got the start at QB, as we expected, after almost rallying PSU @ Nebraska a week earlier.  He led the Lions to just 1 first half TD vs Iowa and was yanked for previous starter Sean Clifford after the first 2 second half possessions led to nothing.  With Iowa up 31-7, Clifford and PSU made a run cutting the lead to 31-21 to start the 4th quarter as his first 2 passing attempts were TD’s.  The comeback ended when Clifford threw his 7th and 8th interceptions of the season in the 4th quarter, one returned for an Iowa TD.  Both QB’s, Levis & Clifford, led Penn State in rushing and their RB’s had only 16 combined yards rushing.  Does this team keep fighting with 2 road games on deck or are they too far beat down emotionally to care at this point?     PENN STATE NEXT UP – @ Rutgers  MICHIGAN – Did we ever think we’d see Michigan players storm the field after a 48-42 OT win vs Rutgers?  That is where we are in this crazy 2020 Big 10 season.  Michigan looked like they might do the unthinkable and lose to Rutgers as they got down 17-0 midway through the 2nd quarter.  Joe Milton got the start at QB again for Michigan, but he was replaced by Cade McNamara after the Wolverines got down by 17.  After McNamara took over, he led Michigan to 5 TD’s in his 7 offensive possessions.  They took an 8-point lead with 5:00 minutes remaining but Rutgers sent the game to OT with just 27 seconds remaining with a TD and 2-point conversion.  To put the Rutgers 42 point effort into perspective, Michigan had held the Knights to just 37 total points in their previous 5 meetings.  The Wolverines pass defense continues to get shredded every week.  Rutgers QB Vedral threw for a career high 381 yards and 3 TD’s.  Vedral had 6 career TD passes entering the game.  It was the THIRD quarterback already this season to throw for career high yardage in a game vs Michigan.  The 1,370 yards passing the Wolverines have given up this year is the most in the Big 10 and the 12 TD passes allowed is 13th most ahead of only Rutgers.  On top of that the 180 points allowed this year by Michigan is better than only Rutgers as well.  This program is used to playing stifling defense and it’s not happening this season.    MICHIGAN NEXT UP – Home vs Maryland   MOST RECENT MEETING – These two met last season @ PSU with the Nittany Lions laying 7.5 points.  PSU won the game 28-21 with Michigan getting the half point cover.  Despite the loss Michigan dominated the stat sheet with 419 total yards to just 293 for Penn State.  POINTSPREAD NUGGET – The home team has won 7 of the last 8 meetings outright (6-2 ATS).  Michigan has won 8 of the last 9 meetings SU in Ann Arbor (6-3 ATS) OHIO STATE (-29 OPEN to -28 CURRENT) @ ILLINOIS – Saturday, November 28th  OHIO STATE – OSU looked like they were going to cruise to an easy win last week leading 28-7 at half vs Indiana.  They easily covered the first half line of -11 and they actually had the game spread of -20.5 covered at half.  The Buckeyes added another TD just 3:00 minutes into the 2nd half for a 35-7 lead.  What looked like another OSU home blowout turned into a battle with IU scoring TD’s on 4 of their next 5 possessions.  The Hoosiers cut the lead to 42-35 with 10:00 minutes remaining in the game but they didn’t cross midfield again and OSU held on for the 7 point win.  The Buckeye offense is fantastic.  No questioning that.  They put up over 600 total yards and topped 40 points for the 3rd time in 4 games this season.  QB Fields wasn’t invincible this week as he actually threw 3 interceptions which is the same number he had thrown in his entire career at Ohio State (17 games).  The defense didn’t look great.  IU had receivers running wide open all day long.  Indiana QB Penix threw for 491 yards and 5 TD’s.  The 491 yards through the air was the 4th most EVER allowed by Ohio State in a single game.  The big plays allowed were very concerning to head coach Ryan Day as Indiana had at least one pass of 25 or more yards in all 5 of their TD drives.  The OSU pass defense now ranks dead last in the Big 10 and 115th nationally allowing 291 YPG.  Another concern?  OSU was outscored 28-14 in the 2nd half which marked the 3rd consecutive game they’ve been outscored after halftime.     OHIO STATE NEXT UP – @ Michigan State  ILLINOIS – The Illini finally got starting QB Peters back after he had missed 3 straight games due to Covid.  He stepped in and didn’t miss a beat throwing for 205 yards while rushing for another 36 in Illinois’ upset win at Nebraska.  They entered the game as 17-point underdogs and won easily 41-23.  It was the 3rd time already this year that a Big 10 underdog of 17 points or more won the game outright!  It was the 2nd huge upset for the Illini in the span of year as they beat Wisconsin last season as a 29-point dog.  Prior to last year’s win over Wisconsin and this year’s win over Nebraska, the Illini had been an underdog of 17 points or more 55 times since 1980 winning just TWO of those games outright.  Well they have another shot this weekend as a huge dog at home vs OSU.  Illinois has some momentum entering this game with 2 straight wins after starting the season 0-3.  They’ve outgained each of their last 2 opponents and they’ve really started to lean on their running game with 623 yards on the ground the last 2 weeks, including gashing the Huskers for 385 rushing.  Peters may have to do more through the air this week as OSU’s defensive strength is vs the run (98 YPG allowed).  The Illini are now near full strength for the first time in nearly a month and they’ll definitely need to find a way to keep up on the scoreboard here as their defense will have a tough time slowing the Buckeyes down.  ILLINOIS NEXT UP – @ Illinois   MOST RECENT MEETING – OSU was a huge 41 point favorite at home in this match up last year and won 52-14.  They outgained the Illini by 440 yards in the game and held them to just 105 total yards.  POINTSPREAD NUGGET – OSU has won the last 9 meetings outright by an average score of 39-14.  The Buckeyes are 6-3 ATS in those games.  Historically however, the Illini have been the money maker here with a 22-13 spread record since 1980.  NORTHWESTERN (-11 OPEN to -13.5 CURRENT) @ MICHIGAN STATE - Saturday, November 28th  NORTHWESTERN – After starting 4-0, Northwestern had their biggest game of the season last week vs Wisconsin.  A game that would most likely decide the Big 10 West.  The Cats came out on top 17-7 despite being -103 total yards, -5 first downs, and -15:00 time of possession.  Northwestern averaged just 3.8 YPP and rushed the ball 23 times for 24 yards.  So how do you win with stats like that?  Win the turnover battle decisively which they did.  They forced the Badgers into 5 turnovers and they had a +4 TO margin on the day.  In a game that saw these two teams combine for 17 punts, 9 in the 3rd quarter alone, it was all about field position and defense.  Speaking of field position, there was a stretch in the 2nd half where Wisconsin, down 14-7 at the time, started 4 consecutive possessions at their own 38, 42, 47, and 48 yard line.  The Wildcat defense came up huge during that stretch limiting 3 of those 4 possessions to 4 plays or fewer followed by a punt as they were protecting their tight lead.  While they didn’t completely shut down Wisconsin on a yardage basis (363 yards) they came up big when they had to.  They put constant pressure on QB Mertz with 3 sacks, 7 TFL’s and 7 QB hurries.  The Badgers crossed midfield 8 times in the game and came away with only 7 points.  That’s what Northwestern does.  They play great defense, don’t beat themselves (+8 TO margin on the season), and play the field position game.  Let this one simmer.  The Cats are 5-0 and have punted more than any team in the Big 10 with 30.  The next highest is 26 punts by Rutgers.  They know who they are and they find ways to win.  Now they are sitting pretty.  With the Minnesota – Wisconsin game getting cancelled this weekend all but eliminating the Badgers, the Cats look like they are heading to the Big 10 Championship game for the 2nd time in 3 years.    NORTHWESTERN NEXT UP – @ Minnesota  MICHIGAN STATE – MSU had a bye week to get ready for this match up with Northwestern.  They technically picked up 3 or 4 extra days to prepare as their originally scheduled game @ Maryland wasn’t cancelled until last Thursday.  They used last Friday, Saturday, and Sunday to revisit the fundamentals they’ve been lacking and began the game planning for NW on Monday.  In their most recent game vs Indiana, the Spartans were atrocious.  It seemed to be a great spot for them catching IU off a huge win over Michigan with Ohio State on deck.  Sparty was also coming off an embarrassing effort @ Iowa so it looked like a good spot for MSU to rebound and play well.  Nope.  They were shut out 24-0 by the Hoosiers, had only 9 first downs and 191 total yards.  They also turned the ball over 4 times which led directly to 17 of Indiana’s 24 points.  They were missing 3 starters in the defensive backfield in that game so a number of inexperience players were thrust into action.  It showed with IU QB Penix throwing for 320 yards which actually doesn’t look so bad when you consider what he did to OSU’s defense last Saturday.  On offense they benched starting QB Lombardi, who now has more interceptions than TD passes, after throwing 2 picks in the first 20 minutes of the game.  Redshirt freshman Thorne took over and was just OK.  Thorne led the Spartans to 150 yards on their final 8 possessions and didn’t score a point so it wasn’t as if he sparked the offense.  The running game continues to be non-existent as MSU has score 1 rushing TD this season and averages 73 YPG on just 2.2 YPC, all Big 10 worsts.  MICHIGAN STATE NEXT UP – Home vs Ohio State   MOST RECENT MEETING – Big swing in the number this year as MSU was favored by -7.5 @ Northwestern last year and now the Cats are favored by 11 @ MSU.  The Spartans won last year’s match up easily 31-10.  POINTSPREAD NUGGET – The Wildcats have covered the last 8 meetings in East Lansing and the road team in general has been a big money maker in this series covering 14 of the last 16.  The totals in this series have been set very low as of late with the last 4 being set at 35, 43, 41.5, and 41 points.  All 4 went over the total.  Saturday’s opening total came out at 41.5.  RUTGERS @ PURDUE (-11 OPEN to -12 CURRENT) - Saturday, November 28th  RUTGERS – How does Rutgers bounce back off a devastating home loss to Michigan?  They jumped out to a 17-0 lead, blew the lead, had to come back and score a TD + 2 point conversion to push the game to OT, and then lost in OT.  The Scarlet Knights missed a FG in the first overtime that would have won the game making this loss even more difficult.  The 48-42 loss while tough to swallow, was quite the improvement considering the last 2 times Michigan paid a visit to Piscataway they left with 42-7 and 78-0 wins.  Rutgers definitely hung with Michigan statistically as well and actually outgained the Wolverines on a YPP basis 5.8 to 5.4.  QB Vedral, who transferred to Rutgers from Nebraska, threw for a career high 381 yards and 3 TD’s.  The 42 points scored was the most by a Rutgers team in conference play since the 2015 season.  The offense is averaging 29.6 PPG and has scored at least 20 points in all 5 of their games (1-4 record).  While that may not seem like a huge deal, let’s remember this team averaged 5.6 PPG in conference play last year, scored a total of 51 points in 9 games.  They were shutout 4 times.  Drastic improvement to say the least.  As we’ve mentioned before, HC Greg Schiano has them heading in the right direction.    RUTGERS NEXT UP – Home vs Penn State  PURDUE – Speaking of how Rutgers will respond after a crushing defeat, how about Purdue?  They are in a similar situation as they seemingly scored the winning TD last week at Minnesota with under 1:00 minute remaining after never leading the entire game.  The infamous phantom offensive pass interference call on the Boilers took away the TD and they proceeded to throw an interception on the next play in their 34-31 loss.  In an unprecedented move, multiple betting sites actually decided to refund Purdue bettors because of the terrible call.  Starting QB O’Connell was unable to go making way for sophomore Jack Plummer to get the start.  Plummer actually gave O’Connell a neck and neck battle for the starting QB this year and started 7 games a year ago so we were not expecting a drop off.  If anything, Plummer made a case to continue as the starting QB throwing for 367 yards and 3 TD’s while completing 82% of his attempts.  Plummer will get the start this Saturday as it looks like O’Connell will be sidelined again.  The offense was also sparked by the return of WR Moore, who is their top weapon and had yet to play in a game this season.  He didn’t disappoint putting up 136 total yards on 18 touches.  The defense wasn’t great as they allowed the Gophers to average nearly 6.3 YPP and convert on 8 of their 13 third & fourth down attempts.  They did stiffen up and get much better vs the Minnesota running attack as the game wore on.  The Gophs had 108 yards on the ground on their first 5 possessions but just 23 yards on their final 3 possessions.    PURDUE NEXT UP – Home vs Nebraska   MOST RECENT MEETING – These two have met just one time since Rutgers joined the Big 10.  That was back in 2017 and the Scarlet Knights upset the Boilers 14-12 as a 9.5 point home underdog.  POINTSPREAD NUGGET – Since November of 2013, the Boilermakers are a money making 30-15-1 ATS (67%) when coming off a SU loss.  Rutgers is 2-0 ATS this year as a double digit underdog covering vs OSU & Michigan.  Can they pull the upset here?  The last time Rutgers won a game outright as a dog of 10 or more was back in 1999.  They are 0-82 SU in that role since that win.  MARYLAND @ INDIANA (-14 OPEN to -11.5 CURRENT) - Saturday, November 28th  MARYLAND – The Terps haven’t played a game since November 7th when they upset Penn State 35-19 in Happy Valley.  They’ve been dealing with Covid issues on the team & staff and they haven’t been able to practice.  That changed on Monday when Maryland was able to run a normal practice for the first time in a few weeks as they prepare for their game @ Indiana.  The Terps originally had 23 players test positive for Covid, however there were no new positive cases since last week.  The challenge in handicapping this one is the 21 day Big 10 rule.  They will still have a fairly large number of players out because of that, but who are they?  Teams across the country have been very tight lipped on this for much of the season and it’s difficult to get that information.  Until we know that info, it’s a game we’ll just take a pass on.  We’ll see what we find out as the week continues.  It’s unfortunate for Maryland as they were playing very well entering this situation with back to back wins over Minnesota & Penn State.  The offense rolled up over 1,000 yards and 80 points in those 2 wins.  QB Tagovailoa was really starting to play well after a disastrous first start @ Northwestern in their season opener.  Head coach Mike Locksley tested positive as well and will be at practice virtually this week.  He will be able to travel with the team on Saturday as the Big Ten coaches 10 day window will be over for him.     MARYLAND NEXT UP – @ Michigan  INDIANA – As we stated in last week’s report, we weren’t so sure on what to think of Indiana.  They looked solid in their 3 most recent games vs Rutgers, Michigan, and Michigan State entering Saturday’s game @ OSU, however consider the competition.  We were impressed by this team’s resolve on Saturday after they fell behind 35-7 early in the 2nd half.  They made a huge comeback and cut the lead to 42-35 with still over 10 minutes remaining.  Their final 2 possessions resulted in a total of 18 yards and the Hoosiers were not able to pull off the huge upset.  They showed they do belong this year among the top 3 or 4 teams in the conference.  QB Penix, who beat out Peyton Ramsey (now at Northwestern) for the starting spot last year, was injured for much of 2019.  This year he has been fantastic.  He threw for almost 500 yards on OSU and he now leads the Big 10 averaging 312 YPG through the air.  He’s thrown more passes (201) and has thrown more TD’s (14) than any other QB in the league.  WR Fryfogle leads the Big 10 averaging 128 YPG receiving and has 18 catches for 418 yards his last 2 games alone.  If they can ever get their running game going to take some pressure off Penix shoulders watch out.  On Saturday they had 16 rush attempts for -1 yard and IU now ranks 13th in the league averaging just 76 YPG on 2.4 YPC.  The defense was shredded by OSU.  No big deal there as the Buckeyes tend to do that to everyone.  We were impressed by the pressure they put on QB Fields with 5 sacks and forcing 3 interceptions from a normally mistake free QB.  This team is good and they’ll be favored in 2 of their last 3 regular season games.  IU has a real shot at 7-1 if they can upset Wisconsin on the road.  If they can win 2 of their last 3 and finish at least 6-2 it would be their most conference wins since the 1994 season.  INDIANA NEXT UP – @ Wisconsin   MOST RECENT MEETING – Indiana was a 6.5 point favorite @ Maryland last year and squeaked by with a 34-28 win giving the Terps a half point cover.    POINTSPREAD NUGGET – This has been a high scoring series as of late with each of the last 5 meetings going Over the total.  The teams have combined for an average of 72.5 points in those 5 meetings.  The total in this game opened 60 and has been pushed up to 63 as of Wednesday afternoon.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAA Basketball, NCAA Football and NFL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Nov 26, 2020

The Thursday Thanksgiving sports card features games in the NFL as well as college football and college basketball.The NFL Thursday card is reduced to two games with the decision to push back the Baltimore Ravens/Pittsburgh Steelers prime-time showdown to Sunday, given the COVID issues that the Ravens are experiencing. The NFL card kicks off at 12:30 PM ET with Detroit hosting Houston. The Lions have lost three of their last four games, with their 20-0 upset loss at Carolina on Sunday as a 3-point favorite. Houston has won two of three games after they upset New England at home by a 27-20 score on Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog. The Texans are 3-point road favorites with the total set at 51.5 (all odds from BetOnline). CBS has the broadcast.Washington visits Dallas at 4:30 PM ET on Fox. The Football Team snapped a two-game losing streak last week with their 20-9 victory at home against Cincinnati as a 2-point favorite. The Cowboys ended their four-game losing streak on Sunday with their 31-28 upset win at Minnesota as a 7-point underdog. This divisional game is a rematch of Washington’s 25-3 victory in a pick ‘em game on October 25th. Dallas is a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 46.The lone game on the college football docket is a battle on winless teams in New Mexico and Utah State. The Colorado State/Air Force contest at 2 PM ET got canceled on Wednesday due to a COVID outbreak in the Rams program. The Lobos lost their fourth straight game last Friday in a 28-0 loss at Air Force as an 8-point underdog. The Aggies take the field after losing their fourth straight contest on November 14th at home to Fresno State by a 35-16 score as an 11-point underdog. New Mexico is a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 51.5. FS1 broadcasts the game at 7 PM ET.The televised college basketball schedule begins at noon, with Western Kentucky and Memphis playing on ESPN in the Crossover Classic in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Both teams come off victories on Wednesday. At 1:30 PM ET, Fox has the showdown between #2 ranked Kansas facing #1 ranked Gonzaga in the Fort Myers Tip-Off in Florida. The Bulldogs are 4-point favorites with the total set at 150. St. John’s hosts LaSalle at 2 PM ET on FS1 as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 144.5. At 2:30 PM ET in the Crossover Classic in Sioux Falls, VCU plays West Virginia on ESPN after both teams won their opening games on Wednesday.Auburn plays Saint Joseph’s in the Fort Myers Tip-Off at 4:30 PM ET on FS1. The Tigers are a 7-point favorite with the total at 151.The Crossover Classic continues at 5 PM ET with Northern Iowa playing Saint Mary’s on ESPN after both teams lost their games on Wednesday.Liberty and Mississippi State face off after losing on Wednesday in the Space Coast Classic in Melbourne, Florida at 6 PM ET on the CBS Sports Network. ESPN has Boston College playing Rhode Island at 7 PM ET after both teams lost their opening games in the 2K Empire Classic at Uncasville, Connecticut. At 7:30 PM ET, Utah State and South Dakota State play in Sioux Falls after both teams lost on Wednesday in their games in the Crossover Classic. Purdue and Clemson play in the finals of the Space Coast Classic at 8:30 PM ET on the CBS Sports Network after both teams won on Wednesday. ESPN has the finals of the 2K Empire Classic in Uncasville at 9 PM ET in a showdown between Villanova and Arizona State.

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