by Hollywood Sports
Wednesday, May 31, 2023The Boston Celtics stayed alive to force a climactic seventh game in this series with Derrick White’s put back about two-tenths of a second before time expired in Game Six to pull out a 104-103 win on the road in Miami. That near-miraculous shot erased many potential narratives — the one I continue to remain interested in is why Marcus Smart’s fade-away 3-pointer was the play with Boston season on the line before White was lucky enough to be in the position where the ball clanged off the rim.
With seemingly all the momentum, when I assessed the Game Seven situation with a clear head, I initially considered that perhaps the best reason to back the Celtics is the historical record of home teams in Game Seven. Home teams had a 36-19 straight-up record in the history of Game Sevens in the NBA playoffs. But the record for home teams gets muddier in recent history. Since 2018, home teams were only 7-8 straight-up in Game Sevens — and these home teams had failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these 15 games. Home favorites laying more than 5 points in a Game Seven had also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these last 7 circumstances. I am reluctant to give too much weight to the historical data before 2018 since so many of those games are before the modern 3-point shooting era. While the sample size was too small to conclude that the road team is the better ATS play in a Game Seven, it was fair to say that simply zombie-playing the home team in Game Seven is now based on muddy data, to say the least. And perhaps most importantly on that issue, NONE of the historical data involved a Game Seven home team who has won three games in a row in the series since Boston was the very first time a team has forced a Game Seven rallying from an 0-3 deficit that had not then played on the road.
Ultimately, I endorsed and invested in the Heat plus the points because I lacked the confidence that the Celtics could close a game out. Those 12 straight missed shots late in Game Six before White’s put-back was the latest example of that phenomenon. Boston should have easily covered the point spread in Game Six before inexplicably letting Miami back in the game. Did this team think they won the series by surviving Game Six in Boston?
The Celtics did put a 112-88 thumping on Philadelphia in a Game Seven two weeks ago — but facing James Harden and his teams in Game Seven has been very reliable over the years. So I was comfortable with the “Harden Exception” in that situation.
Giving a Miami team that had already pulled off eight upset victories in this postseason eight or so points as the underdog seemed off. Fundamentally, I considered the power ranking systems that result in Boston being a favorite on their home court in the 8-point range to be flawed. These systems were largely based on Miami’s 34.4% shooting from behind the arc that ranked 27th in the regular season. The Heat ranked second in the postseason by making 38.5% of their 3-pointers this year — and that mark was much closer to their regular season 3-point shooting percentage of 37.9% which was tops in the NBA. Miami also made 37.9% of their 3-pointers in the 2019-20 bubble season. And while they fell off in the 2020-21 regular season with a 35.8% clip from behind the arc (fatigue might have played a role with the quick turnaround from their appearance in the NBA Finals that fall given the pandemic), that was still higher than their outlier regular season shooting this year.
Regarding power rankings, what data should be used — and what data should be de-emphasized? The Miami Heat present a fascinating example of this problem for the Quants since they have been such a better 3-point shooting team since their opening-round series with Milwaukee. But if the playoffs are too small a sample size to trust, there is a good argument to be had that the regular season numbers do not fairly depict the 3-point shooting of this team in the Eric Spoelstra era with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo leading the way since their NBA Finals run in 2020. If the methodology is unwilling to stop at the postseason and needs to include the regular season data, then why not the data from last season or all the data since 2020? Where does one draw the line? Is there a shred of evidence to support your subjective decision to draw the line where you did? When people (like me) argue that quantitative methodologies that claim to be removed from subjective bias are bullshit, this is yet another example of this phenomenon.
So, I thought there is inherent value with the Heat versus this point spread. And I had more faith in this Heat culture under Spoelstra to remain resilient in the face of adversity. After going up 3-0, they lose Game Four after taking their foot off the accelerator against an embarrassed Celtics team who finally saw some 3-point shooting variance shift in their direction. Then the injury to Gabe Vincent impacts Game Five back in Boston before Game Six where they lose in a heartbreaking coin flip situation. Vincent played in Game Six — and while he missed 9 of 12 inside the arc, he nailed three of his six 3-pointers and brought his strong defense back to the court. So I do not think Miami is “out of answers” — especially when Spoelstra gives them an edge in coaching.
We were rewarded with a 103-84 victory by the Heat who pulled off their ninth upset win in the postseason to advance to the NBA Finals. Winning with Miami and the Under in that game has us going into the NBA Finals this season on an 18-6 (75%) NBA run. I don’t want to label this a “hot streak” since Hollywood Sports is now 78-36 (68%) in our last 114 NBA games in the playoffs. Isn’t this the expectation? It should be.
Best of luck — Frank.
With seemingly all the momentum, when I assessed the Game Seven situation with a clear head, I initially considered that perhaps the best reason to back the Celtics is the historical record of home teams in Game Seven. Home teams had a 36-19 straight-up record in the history of Game Sevens in the NBA playoffs. But the record for home teams gets muddier in recent history. Since 2018, home teams were only 7-8 straight-up in Game Sevens — and these home teams had failed to cover the point spread in 11 of these 15 games. Home favorites laying more than 5 points in a Game Seven had also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of these last 7 circumstances. I am reluctant to give too much weight to the historical data before 2018 since so many of those games are before the modern 3-point shooting era. While the sample size was too small to conclude that the road team is the better ATS play in a Game Seven, it was fair to say that simply zombie-playing the home team in Game Seven is now based on muddy data, to say the least. And perhaps most importantly on that issue, NONE of the historical data involved a Game Seven home team who has won three games in a row in the series since Boston was the very first time a team has forced a Game Seven rallying from an 0-3 deficit that had not then played on the road.
Ultimately, I endorsed and invested in the Heat plus the points because I lacked the confidence that the Celtics could close a game out. Those 12 straight missed shots late in Game Six before White’s put-back was the latest example of that phenomenon. Boston should have easily covered the point spread in Game Six before inexplicably letting Miami back in the game. Did this team think they won the series by surviving Game Six in Boston?
The Celtics did put a 112-88 thumping on Philadelphia in a Game Seven two weeks ago — but facing James Harden and his teams in Game Seven has been very reliable over the years. So I was comfortable with the “Harden Exception” in that situation.
Giving a Miami team that had already pulled off eight upset victories in this postseason eight or so points as the underdog seemed off. Fundamentally, I considered the power ranking systems that result in Boston being a favorite on their home court in the 8-point range to be flawed. These systems were largely based on Miami’s 34.4% shooting from behind the arc that ranked 27th in the regular season. The Heat ranked second in the postseason by making 38.5% of their 3-pointers this year — and that mark was much closer to their regular season 3-point shooting percentage of 37.9% which was tops in the NBA. Miami also made 37.9% of their 3-pointers in the 2019-20 bubble season. And while they fell off in the 2020-21 regular season with a 35.8% clip from behind the arc (fatigue might have played a role with the quick turnaround from their appearance in the NBA Finals that fall given the pandemic), that was still higher than their outlier regular season shooting this year.
Regarding power rankings, what data should be used — and what data should be de-emphasized? The Miami Heat present a fascinating example of this problem for the Quants since they have been such a better 3-point shooting team since their opening-round series with Milwaukee. But if the playoffs are too small a sample size to trust, there is a good argument to be had that the regular season numbers do not fairly depict the 3-point shooting of this team in the Eric Spoelstra era with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo leading the way since their NBA Finals run in 2020. If the methodology is unwilling to stop at the postseason and needs to include the regular season data, then why not the data from last season or all the data since 2020? Where does one draw the line? Is there a shred of evidence to support your subjective decision to draw the line where you did? When people (like me) argue that quantitative methodologies that claim to be removed from subjective bias are bullshit, this is yet another example of this phenomenon.
So, I thought there is inherent value with the Heat versus this point spread. And I had more faith in this Heat culture under Spoelstra to remain resilient in the face of adversity. After going up 3-0, they lose Game Four after taking their foot off the accelerator against an embarrassed Celtics team who finally saw some 3-point shooting variance shift in their direction. Then the injury to Gabe Vincent impacts Game Five back in Boston before Game Six where they lose in a heartbreaking coin flip situation. Vincent played in Game Six — and while he missed 9 of 12 inside the arc, he nailed three of his six 3-pointers and brought his strong defense back to the court. So I do not think Miami is “out of answers” — especially when Spoelstra gives them an edge in coaching.
We were rewarded with a 103-84 victory by the Heat who pulled off their ninth upset win in the postseason to advance to the NBA Finals. Winning with Miami and the Under in that game has us going into the NBA Finals this season on an 18-6 (75%) NBA run. I don’t want to label this a “hot streak” since Hollywood Sports is now 78-36 (68%) in our last 114 NBA games in the playoffs. Isn’t this the expectation? It should be.
Best of luck — Frank.
