Articles

Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL and NFL Preview

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Nov 01, 2020

The Sunday sports card features the continuation of Week 8 of the National Football League, along with four matches in the English Premier League.The NFL has 12 games scheduled for Sunday. Eight games begin the card at 1 PM ET. The primary game on CBS has the Pittsburgh Steelers traveling to Baltimore to face the Ravens in an AFC North showdown. Baltimore is a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 46.5. Tennessee (all NFL odds from BookMaker). The national game on Fox has the Minnesota Vikings traveling to Green Bay in an NFC North rivalry game. The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 50. Another three games take place in the second window of afternoon games. At 4:05 PM ET, the Los Angeles Chargers travel to Denver with the Broncos a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Seattle hosts the San Francisco 49ers at 4:25 PM ET. The Seahawks are a 3-point favorite and the over/under at 53 in this NFC West battle. The national game on Fox at 4:25 PM ET features New Orleans traveling to Chicago to play the Bears. The Saints are a 4-point road favorite with the total set at 43. First place in the NFC East will be at stake in the Sunday Night Football game on NBC despite it being a battle of two teams with losing records and a long list of injuries.Dallas has lost two straight games as well as four of their last five games after they got beat at Washington on Sunday by a 25-3 score. The Cowboys’ offense managed only 142 yards against the Football Team’s defense. Since the season-ending ankle injury to quarterback Dak Prescott, Dallas has scored only 19 points in their 24 offensive drives. Andy Dalton has been declared out for this game after he was on the receiving end of a brutal hit from Washington’s Jon Bostic that knocked him out of the game. The Cowboys will turn to rookie Ben Dinucci as their starting quarterback. Dinucci was a 7th round pick from James Madison, who led the Dukes to the FCS Championship Game against North Dakota State last year. He completed over 70% of his passes in his senior season for 3441 yards with 29 touchdown passes. He also rushed the ball 122 times for 569 yards last year with seven touchdowns, so offensive coordinator Kellen Moore might be able to draw up some plays to take advantage of those skills. Philadelphia snapped a two-game losing streak on Thursday Night Football last week with their 22-21 victory at home against the New York Giants. That win put the Eagles into first place in the division with a 2-4-1 mark. To the victor of this game will go at least a share of first place with three victories on the season. After Dalton was declared out, Philadelphia moved to an 11-point favorite with the total at 43. The game time is 8:20 PM ET.   The four matches on the English Premier League schedule begin at 7 AM ET with Southampton traveling to Aston Villa in a pick ‘em match with the total set at 3. The NBC Peacock app has the game. At 9 AM ET on the NBC Sports Network, Newcastle United hosts Everton with the Toffees a 0.5 goal line road favorite with the over/under set at 2.75 by BetOnline. Manchester United hosts Arsenal at 11:30 AM ET for a match on the NBC Peacock app. Man United is a -0.5 goal line favorite at BetOnline with an over/under of 2.75. At 2:15 PM ET on the NBC Peacock app, Brighton and Hove Albion visit Tottenham with the Hotspurs a 0.75 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.75 at BetOnline.

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What is No-risk Matched Betting?

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Nov 01, 2020

What is no-risk matched betting?Anyone who is fond of surfing around the internet probably knows there are tons of ways to earn some extra dollars.  You could start your own business, or find ways to sell your belongings, or teach your profession.  All of the above require lots of effort and might even take a pretty significant initial capital investment.  But what if there was a way to earn extra money which required very little time or investment?That means we're aiming for free money, tax-free money, and a large amount of money.  We'll do so by using the matched betting method.  When you do a quick google search on finding ways to earn money online, you'll immediately stumble upon the no-risk matched betting method.  It might sound too good to be true, but with some smart techniques, you can start exploiting the sports betting industry's loopholes.In this matched betting guide, we'll take you step-by-step what you need to get you started today!  Matched betting is widespread and, if done correctly, can generate some extra cash which goes far beyond your hourly rate at your current job. How does matched betting work? The first thing you should know is that matched betting is legal and not kind of scam.  Indeed, it's a way to take advantage of a loophole in the online sports betting industry due to its free bets and promotions.  As you know, there's strong competition among online bookies.  Thus, they all attempt to create generous promotions to bring in new bettors.  To them, they are new customers.You probably have seen these promotions: 150% bonus on your first deposit (sign-up offer or reload offer) Free $50 wager when you deposit $100 or more (free bet offers) 50% bonus on your first bet (sign-up offer or reload offer) What if we told you that with some smart techniques, you can ensure a risk-free, guaranteed profit?  We'll show you exactly how.  First of all, let's distinguish between back bets and lay bets, both essential parts of the matched betting technique.Back betsThe back bet is pretty simple.  It's the most traditional sense of betting where you pick the winner.  Thus, you're wagering on a team, player or horse you think will end up with the win.  One option could be the New England Patriots to defeat the Indianapolis Colts, or perhaps Nadal to win the Belmont Stakes.  Your bet is simply a win bet.Lay betsWhen online betting exchanges came into the sports betting industry, many new bet types started to gain popularity.  One of these is the lay bet.  Instead of betting on the outcome, you find most likely, you predict an outcome which will not happen.  In other words, which team, player or horse will lose.  And if you’re correct, your lay bet wins. How to get started with matched betting? Okay, so what we're doing here is essentially hedge betting, but in a different form.  Instead of wagering your precious dollars -- your real money -- you’re wagering the sportsbook’s promotional dollars, or free bets, from its sign-up offers.  There are a few steps you need to take to start placing your first risk-free bets.Find the right bookmakerThe first thing to do is find the right bookmaker, betting exchange, or online sportsbook.  Search for the sportsbooks in the gambling industry that offer the best promotions and bonuses.  You don't have to be too picky, because if you find out how this method works, you can try your luck with multiple sportsbooks.  So find yourself a good promotion and sign up straightaway -- this is where you will place bets with a guaranteed profit!Note: You want to place your back bet at a traditional bookmaker and your lay bet at a betting exchange.  The exchange is different from a traditional bookmaker since you're betting against other gamblers rather than a specific bookmaker.Place your qualifying betWhen your account is all set up and you're ready to rumble, it's time to find the right sporting event.  Ask yourself which sport you prefer and look for some proper odds.  We want the lay odds and the back odds to be close to each other.  And the closer the odds are to each other, the more money we'll make from our matched betting offer.  Remember, one method is to trigger a free bet with a qualifying bet.  That bonus could be something like bet $25 to get $50.  That means you need to wager at least $25 with your qualifying bet to trigger the free bets.So, once your free bet is triggered, search your market for an event which meets the no-risk, matched betting criteria, and go ahead and place your bets at both the bookmaker and the betting exchange.Time to take your free profitsWhen both your back bet and lay bet are in place, it's time to sit back and enjoy your game.  There are two possible outcomes in the game, but regardless of which occurs, you will profit.  You will lose one bet, but the overall profit will still be more than your initial stake.  As you can see, it doesn't require that much hard work or complicated math; all you need is some brains and understanding of the matched betting strategy. One thing to be careful about is to make sure your bonus or the free bet has been activated.  There are always specific terms and conditions that you need to live up to before your bonus is activated.  So always double-check before you place your lay bet -- otherwise, you're not making any profits! Matched betting example To truly understand matched betting, we'll show you an example of a matched betting offer from start to finish.  We're not naming any sportsbook, in particular, so let's just use the term bookmaker X for the example.  We'll start with the promotion:Bookmaker X offers $25 free if you deposit and bet $25 of real moneyThen it's time to find the right match.  There are certain sites like oddsmatcher or oddsmonkey that let you scan through multiple markets to find the matches with odds you're looking for.  You want to search for your bookmaker in combination with the minimum odds required to place your qualifying bet.  Let's say the match that comes out is New England Patriots vs. New York Jets, with nearly identical odds.Then it's time for you to start placing your lay bet and back bet.  You place your back bet at the bookmaker and your lay bet at your betting exchange.  This leaves you with the opportunity to hedge your bet and guarantee your profit.  You might wonder how much you need to wager with your lay bet, but there are some tools.  Some call it a lay betting calculator, or a matched betting calculator that helps you to decide how much you need to wager on both sides of the bet.Don't forget there's always the vigorish, juice, or betting exchange commission that we shouldn't forget.  That requires you to stake a little more than you might think initially, but the calculator considers all that.  Now, when both our bets are in place, we'll have two possible outcomes: Your back bet of $25 on the New England Patriots at bookmaker X wins, and your bet on the betting exchange loses Your lay bet of $25 on the New York Jets wins at the betting exchange, and your back bet at bookmaker X loses. In both cases, the most you could lose is a tiny amount, which represents the bookmaker’s or betting exchange’s commission.  However, if your back bet wins, you're also in for $25 in free bets.  So you are guaranteed not to lose any significant money.  But you have the real possibility to make a lot in free bets that you can, later on, turn into even more profits! Matched betting FAQ Before we leave you to it where you can start trying your luck, we want to make sure you have some questions answered that you might still have wandering around your head.  You might read this guide and think it's too good to be true.  Well, it isn't.How much time do I need to spend on matched betting?The beauty of matched betting is that you don't need to spend hours researching before you can place a bet.  With actual sports betting, you need to thoroughly research and make your choices based on statistics and facts, combined with your gut feeling.  In matched betting, you're only relying on the guarantee of making a profit.  The strategy is sound, and also doesn’t require much time to be successful.All you need to do is take a couple of hours to set yourself up to get everything in place.  Once you do, you can spend as much time as you want.  And, the more time you spend, the more money you will make.Is matched betting legal?When something seems too good to be true, and people do not fully understand it, people start looking for a catch.  People do not trust something that's supposed to be a gamble, but you're making it work in a way where you're not taking any risks.  That's weird -- yet not impossible.  In fact, matched betting is entirely legal since you're not doing anything against the regulations.  A spokesman for one of the world's biggest bookies, William Hill, once said: "There's no illegal element to matched betting.  It's a free bet, and you can do what you like." You could compare matched betting to hedge betting, although this is across multiple sportsbooks, and you're taking advantage of the system.  Bonuses and promotions are there for a reason, so why not use them in your favor?How much money do you need to get started with matched betting?It depends on how much money you want to make.  Just kidding, of course.  Anyway, you can first start with as little as $25.  But if you want to start with more, that’s fine, too.  Just understand that, as you take the maximum advantage of more bonuses and promotions, you need more capital.  And there’s no limit to how much money you can put into play.  It's simple as that.If you’re just starting out, our recommendation is to start small and slowly work your way up.  When you start small, you can eventually start reeling in the big bucks and bet on multiple matched bets instead of just one.With that being said, our matched betting guide is complete, and you're all set to give it a shot.  It's exciting if you do it the right way since you're earning easy money!  Have fun, and know that all you need is some capital and an internet connection to start earning some extra cash on the side!

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Assessing Football Home Field Advantage without Fans

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Oct 31, 2020

It is generalized that oddsmakers assign a standard home-field advantage in football of three points to the host team. The coronavirus pandemic has challenged this working assumption, with many football teams playing in empty stadiums. Even with limited fans allowed in some cities, it is unlikely that their cheers and boos have the same impact on the game as a jam-packed stadium of emotionally-charged fans in a playoff game. How should oddsmakers adjust in the pandemic when taking into account less-than-full stadiums?Even asking the question illuminates that these circumstances are not so different than situations that oddsmakers commonly encounter. Assigning odds to a home team without a vocal or vibrant fan base is not unusual in football. It would be more accurate to suggest that certain home field situations offer their team more of an advantage because their fan base is consistently louder and more disruptive to the opposing team. Every oddsmaker would likely agree that the home team edge is not as strong with capacity limitations to audiences due to COVID concerns. The challenge for oddsmakers (and then bettors) is determining what, if any, home-field advantage still exists for the home team. Some observers have gone so far as to say that COVID has eliminated the home field edge in football. The current win/loss numbers of home versus road teams offer support for that position. However, these observers should be careful of the limited sample size. There are three reasons why home teams retain an edge even without a cheering crowd backing them up.(1) Familiarity. Home teams simply have more experience playing in their stadium and on their field. This familiarity breeds comfort. A lack of familiarity plants the seeds for potential discomfort. This intangible certainly applies to how the home team feels inside their building. However, the weather and climate also play a significant role that should very much be considered. Dome teams may not be as comfortable playing outdoors and on grass fields. Cold weather teams may not be as comfortable playing in hot weather. Teams used to playing in sunny conditions may struggle in the cold. (2) Situational. Teams playing at home get to stay in their own beds. They stick to their routines. Road teams are in hotels and unfamiliar environments. Sometimes the visiting team has been away from home for an extended period of time. The preparation for the road team may have already put them at a disadvantage relative to their opponent even before setting foot on the field that lacks a cheering section. (3) Territoriality. Do home teams feel a higher sense of purpose in defending their home turf? Some psychological studies suggest this is the case. It is fair to assume that there is a higher expectation for teams playing at home to perform well. There perhaps is a built-in excuse for road teams to underperform when playing away from their “home base.” Perhaps for some visiting teams, these negative expectations create a self-fulfilling prophecy.In conclusion, it is reasonable for oddsmakers do not assign full value to home teams when playing in stadiums without enough cheering fans to impact the play of the visiting team. Maybe this adjustment should have already been made in environments that are not as loud and rabid as others?However, bettors beware if they conclude that a home team no longer retains “any” edge when playing at home.Good luck - TDG. 

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Go For It on 4th Down? We Need Better Analytics!

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, Oct 31, 2020

When Mike McCarthy was auditioning for a new head coaching gig after being let go by the Green Bay Packers, he made it known that he spent his year away from the game camped out in his basement lair studying tape and immersing himself in “analytics.” After Jerry Jones hired him as his next head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, McCarthy made it seem that he had added the new-age analytics to his arsenal of coaching weapons. This new-found knowledge was tested right away in his first game as coach of the Cowboys. McCarthy found his team trailing by a 20-17 score in the fourth quarter. When the Dallas offense stalled at 4th-and-3 on the Los Rams’ 13-yard line, McCarthy bypassed attempting the 30-yard field goal since the “analytics” on 4th down attempts apparently provided a one-size-fits-all answer that required going for the 1st down to keep a potential touchdown drive alive. Unfortunately for the Cowboys faithful, Dallas failed to convert the 1st down and eventually lost the game by the same 20-17 score. I'm agnostic as to whether or not Mike McCarthy made the right or wrong call going for it at 4th-and-3 rather than kick the game-tying FG. However, the litany of defenses for his decision exposed one of the most flawed applications of analytics in football. Attempting to apply the "historical" probability odds of the success-rate on 4th-and-3 (or any other 4th down situation) to the Cowboys' specific chances in that spot represents deductive logic run amok.Here a just a few intangibles that would impact Dallas' success rate at that moment: (1) their field position; (2) the moment in the game; (3) the quality of the opponent’s defense; (3) their credible 3-yard rush play options; (4) their credible 3-yard pass play options; (5) the injury status/health of key offensive players. Each one of these considerations either impacts the specific success rate of the Cowboys’ 4th down play at that moment or contextualizes the risk calculus regarding the ramifications of the probability matrix if they settled for the field goal attempt. These intangibles expose the need for more precise data to identify qualitative factors that contextualize the "actual" probability. Head coaches conduct this additional level of analysis. And this inductive logic is even considered conventional wisdom in other situations! What are the "NFL history" odds for the probability of making a 45-yard field goal? 60%? Imagine that argument trotted out in a situation for a kicker who was struggling through out that very game in making chip-shot field goals (as was the case the next night for Monday Night Football when the Tennessee's place kicker Stephen Gostowksi made a game-winning field goal after missing kicks earlier in the game)?If the NFL history for success rate on 4th-and-3 is, say, 51% (guessing), that does not mean the Cowboys' had that same probability in that specific (statistical) moment. Maybe it was higher!It is indicative of football analytics still being in its infancy stage that this deductive logic is advanced so heavily. Imagine this argument being made after a hypothetical World Series moment: "Stolen base success rate is 55% -- so take your chances with (the relatively slow and non-base stealer) Cody Bellinger stealing 2nd (with two outs)!"Football coaches may, in fact, be better served by being more aggressive on 4th down. Citing general league-wide data that is even attempting to get more specific to being analogous to the situation at hand is flawed. Best of luck for us — Frank.

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Problems in the Kitchen when you “Let Russ Cook!”

by Hollywood Sports

Saturday, Oct 31, 2020

Seattle Seahawks fans, as well as the “you already lost if you did not pass on first down” football analytics crowd, have been vocal with their claims regarding how good that team would be if they passed the ball more in past seasons. This sentiment has evolved into the catchphrase “Let Russ Cook.”Yet when these critics call on the “old-fashioned” Seahawks' offense to run less and pass more (as offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer did in the first two games of the 2018 season before head coach Pete Carroll intervened), they typically fail to address Carroll's reasons for wanting to run the ball more. The direct and indirect benefits of running the football are under-appreciated by the football analytics community. Their arguments would strengthen if they better engaged with the rationale of (Super Bowl-winning) head coaches who find subtle advantages in running the football that transcends the yards-per-carry metric.First, “Russ can't cook” if Russ is on the sidelines with an injury. Carroll is very cognizant of the number of hits made on the quarterback.  He has this number tracked by his coaching staff. Carroll speaks of "not taking the sugar" when it comes to the short-term allure of relying on Wilson to make yet another pass. Every drop back risks another quarterback hit. Have there been studies in the analytic community regarding the correlation between the number of QB hits and injuries? I have not seen any (and I pay attention). These stats are not cited in the "you already lost if you ran on first down" genre of analytics.I would be surprised if this area was not being studied by internal analytics departments. Is there is a threshold where QB hits correlate with a higher risk of injury (like the 400 carry threshold pointing to RB regression the next season)? That seems to be a fascinating subject to investigate. Second, Carroll thinks his team has a better chance of winning close games if he can manage the game to put his coaching staff and Wilson in that position. This belief runs counter to the conventional wisdom in the analytics community that winning close games is random.In general, that conventional wisdom makes sense: close games tend to be decided on a small number of plays (or decisions including by the refs) that would seem to even out over time. However, there is some interesting work being done in basketball suggesting winning close games can be a skill. Certainly, the eye-test watching Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, et al, supports the notion that "you don't want those QBs to have the ball last." Do these QBs behave differently in crunch time? For Wilson, that becomes the time he is allowed to "cook."What is fascinating about Seattle is that they began a rebuild for the '18-19 season after missing the playoffs. Rather than eating a couple of losing seasons, they made the playoffs. One would think that Carroll would get credit for "reloading" on the fly. Instead, implicit in the "Let Russ Cook" argument is that this team was closer to winning a Super Bowl these last two seasons than suffering 6-10 records. In college basketball, Carroll's tactics would elevate him to the genius level in the conventional wisdom of that sport.Now in Year Three of the rebuild, I was of the belief that Seattle would pass more this season — just as they did when they were making Super Bowl runs with Wilson (with a better defense and overall roster). I await the 538 dot com article where credit is taken for Seattle’s shift in tactics.I'm not a Carroll stan. I have issues with his approach to the offensive line. Rather, I am a stan for answering arguments -- both explicit and implicit. Fortunately, the misguided conventional wisdom on the Seahawks has contributed to point spread value in the last two seasons. So that has been good!As we now approach the halfway point of the NFL season, what if one of the unintended consequences of "Let Russ Cook" was a decline in play by the Seattle Seahawks defense? More early-down passing shortens Seattle's time of possession on drives. Consider these defensive numbers:2020 Seattle Defense (after Week Six): 27.0 PPG, 471.2 total YPG. 6.4 Yards-Per-Play allowed. 2020 Offense Average Time of Possession: 28:21. 2019 Seattle Defense: 24.9 PPG, 381.7 total YPG. 6.2 Yards-Per-Play allowed 2019 Offense Average Time of Possession: 31:26.Last year, the Seahawks had a 30/32 average run-to-pass play ratio during the regular season for a 51.6% pass rate per offensive snap. Now in the Let Russ Cook era, Seattle enters Week Eight of the NFL season with an average run-to-pass play ration of 25/36 fora 59.0% pass rate per snap offensive snap.Some defensive coaches claim that their players only have about 50 plays in them per game. When defensive players go beyond that point, then their energy level begins to decline. Of course, these defensive coaches can not code R to save their lives. Was "establishing the run" Carroll's method to elevate a mediocre defense?  A closing thought from two-time Super Bowl champ (but failed R coder) Jimmie Johnson: "How you protect a defense is you eliminate the negative plays, and you increase your time of possession by running the football." Best of luck for us — Frank.

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Is It Over for the Early Season NFL Overs Trend?

by Team Del Genio

Saturday, Oct 31, 2020

The 2020 NFL season began as the highest-scoring in league history, with the average combined scores topping the 50-point threshold after the first five weeks of the season. The oddsmakers were slow to adjust as overs had a 43-33-2 (57%) mark after these initial five weeks. Yet in Week 6, nine of the thirteen games finished under the total. Then in Week 7, the under finished 7-6-1. After the Thursday night game between Atlanta and Carolina that finished under the number, the over is now just 53-50-3 (51%) going into November. Are the trends changing? Did the oddsmakers over-adjust The answers to both these questions is probably yes. There were three main reasons that drove the early season higher scoring games. First, the lack of large crowds for these games given COVID-19 precautions and guidelines has prevented loud stadiums. Less crowd noise helps the visiting quarterbacks who no longer have to resort to silent snap counts. This dynamic has not changed even with many stadiums allowing limited crowds. Noise remains a non-factor for the opponent. Second, the referees are calling fewer holding penalties which helps the offense in several ways. Not only are offenses not being penalized ten yards but the interpretation of the rules is helping quarterbacks avoid getting sacked so they can make successful passing plays down the field. Third, the defenses have been behind the offenses when it comes to schemes and cohesion. It was thought that the offenses may start slow without a normal training camp and preseason but, in practice, the evolving offensive philosophies that give the quarterback flexibility to make adjustments on the fly seem to have given the advantage to the offenses. But as defenses get more-and-more in-synch, this factor will continue to be mitigated. With bettors continuing to push the line up by betting overs while defenses get caught up, the under will likely continue to offer value to sharper bettors. As always, maintaining a proper perspective remains essential. The recent market correction is not a reason to start only betting the under just as the early-season over trends were not a reason to only bet overs. The circumstances at hand should always be considered.Good luck - TDG.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL and NCAA Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Oct 31, 2020

The Saturday sports card features a busy slate of college football games along with the English Premier League. The college football schedule has 38 games between FBS opponents. Eleven games kick off the college football slate at noon. The ABC game has Clemson (playing without Trevor Lawrence after his positive COVD test) hosting Boston College. The Tigers are a 26-point favorite with the total set at 58 (all odds from BookMaker). Michigan State travels to Ann Arbor to play Michigan for the Fox game with the Wolverines laying 21 points with an over/under of 51. ESPN has Memphis playing at Cincinnati with the Bearcats a 6.5-point favorite with the over/set at 56.5. West Virginia hosts Kansas State on ESPN2 with the Mountaineers as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 45.5. FS1 has Iowa State’s trip to Kansas with the Cyclones a 28-point road favorite with an over/under of 51. Georgia State hosts Coastal Carolina on ESPNU with the Chanticleers a 3.5-point favorite and the total set at 61.Another thirteen games are scheduled between 2 PM ET and 4 PM ET. Four nationally televised games start at 3:30 PM ET. The game on CBS features LSU’s trip to Auburn. The Tigers are a 1.5-point road favorite with the total set at 62.5. The ABC game has Notre Dame traveling to Atlanta to play Georgia, where they are 20.5-point favorites with an over/under of 59. Iowa hosts Northwestern on ESPN with the Hawkeyes a 2.5-point favorite and the total set at 44. TCU travels to Waco to play Baylor on ESPN2, with the Horned Frogs a 3-point road favorite and an over/under of 46.5. At 4 PM ET, Fox has Texas’ trip to Oklahoma State where the Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 58. UL-Monroe hosts Appalachian State on ESPNU at 4 PM ET with the Mountaineers a 31-point road favorite and the total set at 56.5. Eleven games take place in the window between 6 PM ET and 8 PM ET. At 6 PM ET, Air Force hosts Boise State with the Broncos as a 14-point road favorite with a total of 49. At 7 PM ET, Mississippi State travels to Alabama, where the Crimson Tide are a 30.5-point favorite with an over/under of 63. San Jose State hosts New Mexico at 7 PM ET on FS1, with the Spartans laying 13.5-points, and the total is 55. The game on ABC at 7:30 PM ET features Ohio State’s trip to Happy Valley to face Penn State. The Buckeyes are a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 64.5. SMU hosts Navy on ESPN2 at 7:30 PM ET with the Mustangs a 13.5-point favorite with the total set at 59.5.  Oklahoma plays at Texas Tech as a 15-point road favorite with an over/under of 67 on Fox at 8 PM ET. UL-Lafayette travels to Texas State, where they are 16-point road favorites with a total of 56.A final three games close out the college football card. At 9:30 PM ET, Utah State hosts San Diego State on the CBS Sports Network with the Aztecs an 8.5-point road favorite and the total set at 44. At 10:15 PM ET, Western Kentucky travels to Provo play BYU, where the Cougars are a 30.5-point favorite with the over/under at 51.5. UNLV hosts Nevada at 10:30 PM ET on ESPNU in the first football game that will have fans in the new Allegiant Stadium. The Wolf Pack are a 14-point road favorite with the total set at 60. The English Premier League has three matches scheduled for Saturday. Manchester City travels to Sheffield United on the NBC Peacock app that starts at 8:30 AM ET. The NBC Sports Network broadcasts Chelsea’s trip to Burnley at 11 AM ET. At 1:30 PM ET, Liverpool hosts West Ham for the match on NBC.

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What is Points Betting?

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Oct 31, 2020

What is points betting?The sports betting market is probably as competitive as the regular sports industry -- at times even more competitive.  With billions of dollars passing through sportsbooks and bookmakers each year, your value to sportsbooks is high.  There are a lot of different places where you can place your wagers and a lot of opportunities.With the sports betting industry rapidly becoming more digital and online, completely new types of wagers have developed.  Whereas in a brick-and-mortar sportsbook, you're often limited to the more classic bets and wager types, some online sportsbooks have taken innovation into their own hands.One of these new bet types is points betting. It's an exclusive sports betting option that's only available at PointsBet sportsbook.  This is a bet type that's in the high-risk, high-reward category.  In this betting guide, we'll take you through points betting and see explain how you can get started right away! How to get started with points betting Bettors might find excitement by placing their money at risk in a parlay bet, or by wagering on multiple teasers, but points betting is for those who truly dare to risk it all.  It's the kind of bet that could bring you riches or drag you through the mud, face-first.  It must be said that this bet type is not for everyone.  It's a bet which requires high-level knowledge about sports betting, a bankroll that can take a hit, and a lot of guts.Points betting started initially as a wager solely for point spread bets.  Shortly after, new bets came along.  Now, points betting can be done on point spreads, totals, or proposition bets on individual players.  In points betting, every point or yard in a game can change how much you win, or how much you lose.  Regular bets can either bring you a big win or make you lose your initial stake, but nothing more than that.  With points betting, there are no limits to how much you can lose or win.  That means you will not know what your realized loss or gain is until the very end of the game.  Until then, you'll probably be at risk for a nervous breakdown.   Point spread points betting The most popular points bet is made on a point spread wager.  It all started to spice things up after point spread betting became very popular among football and basketball bettors, more so than other sports.  Note that it's also available for other sports that work with an ATS system like the NHL (puck-line) or MLB (run-line), but it's most popular and common in football.  Thus, we'll provide an example of an NFL match between the New York Giants and the Miami Dolphins.  Let's imagine your point spread bet would look something like this: New York Giants -3 Miami Dolphins +3 The odds for a regular point spread bet are generally -110, but sometimes you’ll see an ATS bet be -130, or +110.  That, of course, limits your potential gain or loss relative to your initial stake.  Points betting, though, gives you the ability to win or lose many multiples of your initial stake.  To illustrate this, let's say the final score was 12-3 in favor of the Giants.  With the spread being -3, that means the Giants beat the spread by 6 points.  As every single point matters, you now have your payout multiply by six.  When betting $100, that gives you the following formula to calculate your payout: $100 bet x (9 point victory, minus a point spread of 3, = 6) = total payout of $600 with a single wager.Now, that might seem appealing.  But the flip side here is that with the possible win of six times your initial stake (for a Giants bet), there's also a potential loss of six times your initial stake with a Dolphins wager. Points betting other markets In the preceding chapter, we showed you how points betting works with the point spread bet. This is one of the most popular bets, but not the only option at PointsBet sportsbook.  There are many ways you could wager on games at the online sportsbook.  A couple of examples of individual proposition bets available could be: How many touchdowns will Odell Beckham Jr. score against the New York Jets? How many passing yards will Tom Brady have against the Indianapolis Colts? How many points will LeBron James score against the New York Knicks? PointsBet sportsbook will set a number of points for each wager.  Then, it's up to the bettor to choose whether to go above or below that amount.  On top of that, you decide how far away from the set number.  Thus, how much risk you're willing to take. PointsBet sportsbook By now, you understand the basics of point spread betting, but the way to fully understand this bet type is by putting your beliefs into action.  Thus, try your luck by wagering at PointsBet sportsbook.  We want to share some insights about the sportsbook to give you a little background before you trust them with your money.The sportsbook was founded in 2017 in Australia.  With regulations becoming more welcoming in the United States, PointsBet decided to move its operations and expand overseas.  In January 2019, it signed a collaboration with the Meadowlands Racetrack in New Jersey to form a partnership.  The sportsbook had some time to get accustomed to the United States sports betting market and decided to move on to more states.  As of today, the sportsbook is active in New Jersey, Iowa, Indiana, and Colorado.  You should note that PointsBet NJ and all other individual states belong to PointsBet USA.The sportsbook has more than 200 different bet types ranging from regular moneyline wagers to their unique points betting options. The company partnered with two famous ambassadors:  NFL player Darrelle Revis and NBA player Allen Iverson. What you should know about PointsBet sportsbook When analyzing a sportsbook, there are a couple of things you have to consider.  We took the effort to create a list of the most important factors when finding a sportsbook.Deposit optionsAs an advanced sportsbook, PointsBet allows users to deposit money using any preferred deposit option:  VISA, Mastercard, ACH Payments/e-checks, or any other digital wallet.  Depositing is made even easier by using their debit card, which allows bettors also to make real-life purchases using the card.Mobile appUnlike many other sportsbooks, PointsBet has a fully functioning mobile app for any Android or iOs device.  It's an easy way to start betting without having to leave your house or start up your PC -- just simply use your mobile phone.  You can use any feature that's available on the desktop version, such as pregame betting options and live betting.PromotionsBeing a relatively new online sportsbook, PointsBet has to work hard to get new bettors in the door.  With that in mind, there are a ton of promotional offers to choose from, including bonus bets and risk-free bets.  We want to share a couple of examples: Risk-free bet:  after filling in a particular promo code, you receive one fixed-odds bet. That means you take away the possibility of losing more than your wager! Welcome bonus:  after signing up through a link or with a particular promo code, you receive either risk-free bets or money which allows you to place free wagers. Seasonal promos:  these are usually for big sporting events like the Super Bowl or an important MMA match. Besides that, there's a rewards program which goes further than merely filling in a bonus code.  The more you wager at PointsBet, the more reward points you get, and the fewer fees you pay.  Eventually, you could end up paying no juice at all.  When you use these promos in your favor, there's a real edge to it which will save you money. How to use points betting in your sports betting strategy With PointsBet’s unique points betting system, there are a lot of bettors who want to give it a try.  But we must caution novice bettors.If you are susceptible to developing gambling problems, or you let emotions get the best of you, be warned.  With points betting, it’s not possible to create a stop loss like in the stock market, so think twice before placing a points bet.  When you find your way with points betting, though, the rewards can be exhilarating.  When you place your wager, make sure you can cover the potential loss.  That means, if you wager $10 per point, your loss will stay manageable for the most part.  But when betting $100 (or more) per point, you could lose hundreds, or thousands of dollars.However, no matter what kind of bet you want to make, make sure you always do the proper research.  The last thing you want to do is give points betting a try, but end up with huge losses.  As always, you can visit our website to learn about a wide variety of topics when it comes to sports betting.  Keep in mind that you can never know enough, and there's always room for improvement.  Now, go ahead and experiment cautiously with points betting, and don't forget to have fun!

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NFL: 2 Teams That Are Better Than You Think

by Power Sports

Friday, Oct 30, 2020

Anyone who regularly follows my picks knows that I am a big believer in YTD scoring differential being a reliable predictor of future outcomes. Yesterday I took a look at three NFL teams that aren’t as good as their record says they are. Now it’s time to take a look at two teams that are better than you might realize.1. Tampa Bay (5-2, +80 pt differential) - The Buccaneers were likely to improve this year for a variety of reasons. But, despite two losses, they are even better than I’d thought. Coming off a 45-20 win over Las Vegas last week, the Bucs now own the league’s top point differential. Tom Brady and the offense commands the attention, but the defense is arguably the best in the NFL. You can’t run on them. They are allowing just 66 rush yards per game! Looking at the two losses, one was in Week 1 whey they outgained the Saints in New Orleans. The other was a Thursday night road game in Chicago where they outgained the Bears substantially on a per play basis, yet lost 20-19 on a last second field goal. Tampa Bay projects to be favored in almost every game from here on out. They have a shot at being the NFC’s top seed. 2. Miami (3-3, +47 point differential) - This is the real surprise of the list. The Dolphins are the only team in the AFC East with a positive point differential. All three wins have been by at least 18 points. The three losses were to New England, Buffalo and Seattle, two of those being one-score games. I believe this team has a legit shot at winning the division this season. Head coach Brian Flores has obviously “rolled the dice” by making the change at QB to Tua Tagovailoa, but he did so on a bye week and Tua obviously has more upside than veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. The team’s point differential is actually the 7th best in football right now. We shall see if that holds up. This week, the Fins are a dog at home vs. the Rams. Next week they’ll be a dog in Arizona. That means they will have been the underdog in seven of their first eight games. The second half schedule looks to be easier and the AFC East could be decided in Week 17 at Buffalo.

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Ness Notes: Friday, Oct 30

by Larry Ness

Friday, Oct 30, 2020

This column will be available Monday through Friday (posted no later than 1:00 ET), EXCLUSIVELY at BigAl.com. I like to call it my daily 'random thoughts' on the sports betting world, although I'll pass along that my therapist refers to it as "thoughtful commentary."CFB: I covered the Wisconsin COVID-19 situation in Thursday Notes but an update is that the Wisconsin football program now has 16 active cases of COVID-19. The positive tests recently received include those of head coach Paul Chryst and QB Graham Mertz. Mertz is out three weeks and Chryst is required to isolate for 10 days and will be able to return to the team in person on Nov 7 at the earliest. That, coincidentally, is the date Wisconsin is scheduled to play Purdue. Is Wisconsin's season in the balance? If that news wasn't bad enough, I woke up this morning to the news that Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence has also tested positive. Here's what we know.Lawrence will miss Saturday's home game against Boston College, as the Tigers go for their 39th straight regular season win, which would tie Miami for the second-longest streak in college football history ('Canes run came from 2000-03). The longest regular season winning streak is 45 in a row by Oklahoma from 1953-57. Lawrence is said to have mild symptoms but at this time, his status for Clemson's Nov 7th game at South Bend with the 4th-ranked Fighting Irish remains in question. Lawrence will be required to isolate for 10 days from the onset of symptoms. That begs the question, when did his 10-day clock start? The best-case scenario for Lawrence's return is if he began experiencing symptoms on Tuesday and that began his 10-day isolation clock, which would potentially allow him to play on Nov 7. However, this also requires the player to show no symptoms, defined as no respiratory issues or fever, without the aid of fever-reducing medication. Lawrence will also have to pass a battery of cardiac tests to ensure he isn't showing symptoms of myocarditis. If he clears all those hurdles, it's possible he could play against the Irish, albeit with no practice under his belt beforehand. As I opined Thursday, fingers crossed.NFL Week 8 opened with Atlanta winning 25-17 at Carolina on Thursday night. The Falcons fired Dan Quinn after a 23-16 home loss in Week 5 to the Panthers but have now won TWO of three under interim head coach Raheem Morris. Atlanta bounced back from last Sunday's emotionally-draining one-point loss to Detroit, when the Lions drove 75 yards in 1:04 and scored the winning TD (and extra point) with no time remaining. As for Carolina, the Panthers have now lost THREE in a row, after winning THREE in a row. Carolina has played each of its last SIX games without All-Pro RB Christian McCaffrey.Sunday's NFL "Game of the Week" is the 6-0 Steelers playing the 5-1 Ravens in Baltimore at 1:00 ET. The current Baltimore Ravens are "the original Cleveland Browns" and rivalry has never let up with Browns/Ravens moving from Cleveland to Baltimore. It has produced vicious hits, close games, dramatic finishes and now a historic matchup of head coaches. The Steelers hired Mike Tomlin in 2007 and he's led Pittsburgh to a 139-74-1 (.652) record in the regular season while capturing six AFC North titles and one Super Bowl championship. John Harbaugh was hired by the Ravens the following season (2008) and owns a 123-75 (.621) regular season record winning four AFC North Titles and one Super Bowl title. Sunday's meeting will be the 25th matchup between Tomlin and Harbaugh, which according to the Elias Sports Bureau, the duo will become the first pair of head coaches in the Super Bowl era to face off 25 times in the regular season (Harbaugh holds a 13-11 edge over Tomlin). For you history buffs, there are only two head-coaching matchups in NFL history that eclipse Tomlin-Harbaugh. George Halas (Bears) and Curly Lambeau (Packers) met 48 times plus Lambeau and Steve Owen (Giants) coached against each other 28 times.  I mentioned above something about "close games" and two-thirds of the 25 games have been decided by FOUR points or less, including four overtime games. The Ravens are favored by 3 1/2-points and the over/under is 46 1/2.The Pittsburgh/Baltimore matchup is not the only game in which the winner will take over first-place with a victory. In Week 8's SNF game (8:20 ET on NBC) the 2-5 Cowboys (0-7 ATS) will be in Philadelphia to take on the 2-4-1 Eagles, with the winner walking away as the NFC East's division leader. Now you CAN'T make that up! Philly is favored by 9 1/2-points and the over/under is 43. There are two more division showdowns with important implications. The SF 49ers are not just defending NFC West champs but they are also defending NFC champs. The Niners opened 2-3 but have won two in a row (24-16 at home against the Rams and 33-6 at the Pats) to get back to 4-3. However, the 49ers still find themselves in last-place in the NFL's toughest division, behind the 5-2 Cards and Rams plus the 5-1 Seahawks. Seattle welcomes the 49ers to CenturyLink Field off the team's first loss of 2020, a 37-34 OT loss last Sunday night in Arizona. Seattle is favored by three points and the over/under is 54. Then we have the 2-4 Patriots heading to Buffalo to take on the 5-2 Bills. The Patriots have won the AFC East in each of the last 11 years and in 17 of the last 19 seasons. A win by the Bills would move Buffalo to 6-2, with New England falling to 2-5. Could Buffalo win its first AFC East title since 1995 in 2020? The Bills are favored by four points and the over/under is 41.Week 8 also features an important non-division NFC matchup, as the 4-2 Saints are in Chicago to take on the 5-2 Bears. The Saints currently trail 5-2 Tampa Bay in the NFC South and with the Bucs playing the 1-6 NY Giants on MNF, the last thing New Orleans needs is to lose at Chicago, while Tampa Bay wins as expected in New Jersey. The Bears trail the 5-1 Packers in the NFC North and with Green Bay hosting the 1-5 Vikings, the Bears can ill afford a loss AND what is expected to be a Packers win. The Saints are favored by 4 1/2-points and the over/under is 43 1/2. I'll close with the NFL's lone winless team, the 0-7 (1-6 ATS) Jets, who can't possibly be expected to win at the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. KC welcomes the Jets to Arrowhead Stadium as a 19 1/2-point favorite (over/under is 49).Good luck...Larry

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Big Al's Daily Angle: EPL and NCAA Football Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Oct 30, 2020

The Friday sports card features three games in college football and an afternoon match in the English Premier League. Florida International was to play Marshall in college football as well but called the game off given their lack of scholarship players available to play after a COVID outbreak. The Friday night game on ESPN features a battle of two Big Ten opponents looking to rebound from opening game losses last week.Minnesota hosted Michigan for the Saturday night prime-time game on ABC but got dominated in a 49-24 loss. The Golden Gophers’ defense only returned five starters from last year while losing five of their top six tacklers from that team. Minnesota was tenth in the nation by allowing 306.6 yards-per-game, yet allowed the Wolverines to generate 478 yards of offense while averaging 8.8 yards-per-play behind Joe Milton's first career start at quarterback. The Golden Gophers allowed 35 points in the first half to the Wolverines. Maryland was embarrassed last week in Evanston, where they lost to Northwestern by a 43-3 score. They surrendered 537 yards to a Wildcats’ offense was 123rd in the nation last year. Northwestern ran the ball 53 times for 325 yards against the Terrapins. Maryland has five starters on defense back that was 109th by allowing 449.2 yards-per-game with 177.9 of those yards coming on the ground.Maryland was only 3-9 last season, but they have bowl aspirations in Locksley’s second year with the program with twelve starters back. The Terrapins lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession while losing 36 starts from the first-string to injuries last season. Minnesota has 13 starters back from Fleck’s 11-2 team defeated Auburn in the Outback Bowl by a 31-24 score. BetOnline lists the Golden Gophers as a 19.5-point road favorite with the total set at 61. The ESPN broadcast begins at 7:30 PM ET. At 9:30 PM ET, East Carolina travels to Tulsa to play the Golden Hurricane. The Pirates are 1-3 this season after losing at home to Navy by a 27-23 score back on October 17th. Tulsa raised their record to a 2-1 mark with their 42-13 victory at South Florida last Saturday. The Golden Hurricane are 17-point favorites with an over/under of 61. ESPN2 has the broadcast.At 9:45 PM ET, Wyoming hosts Hawai’i. The Cowboys lost their opening game of the season last week with a 37-34 upset loss in overtime at Nevada. The Rainbow Warriors began their season last Saturday with a 34-19 upset victory at Fresno State, where they were 2.5-point underdogs. Wyoming is a 1-point favorite with a total of 59. FS1 broadcasts the game.Match week 7 of the English Premier League begins on Friday with Crystal Palace traveling to Wolverhampton. The Wolves are -1 goal line favorites with a total of 2. The NBC Sports Network broadcasts the game at 4 PM ET.

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NCAA Friday Night Football: Minnesota/Maryland Preview

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Oct 30, 2020

The Friday night game on ESPN features a battle of two Big Ten opponents looking to rebound from opening game losses last week.Minnesota hosted Michigan for the Saturday night prime-time game on ABC but got dominated in a 49-24 loss. The Golden Gophers’ defense only returned five starters from last year while losing five of their top six tacklers from that team. Minnesota was tenth in the nation by allowing 306.6 yards-per-game, yet allowed the Wolverines to generate 478 yards of offense while averaging 8.8 yards-per-play behind Joe Milton's first career start at quarterback. The Golden Gophers allowed 35 points in the first half to the Wolverines. Minnesota only gained 326 yards on offense despite being on the field for over 35 minutes in that game. Junior quarterback Tanner Morgan completed just 18 of 31 passes for 197 yards with a touchdown and an interception. After ranking fourth in the nation last season by averaging 10.2 yards per pass attempt, Morgan averaged only 6.6 yards per attempt against the Wolverines. Junior Rashod Bateman remains a dangerous weapon for Morgan, but he needs help in replacing their lead receiver Tyler Johnson from last year. The Minnesota offensive line was supposed to be a strength for this team, with four starters returning. It was a surprise when right guard Curtis Dunlap and right tackle Daniel Faalele could not play because of injuries. Head coach P.J. Fleck reshuffled his line while inserting two backups into the starting lineup. Yet Morgan still got sacked five times. If there was a bright spot for the Golden Gophers, it was the play of junior running back Mohamed Ibrahim, who rushed for 140 yards with two touchdowns against the stout Wolverines’ defense. With Dunlap and Faalele listed as questionable for this game, Minnesota will likely lean on Ibrahim to carry the offense. The Golden Gophers are also dealing with injuries with the kicker and punter, which impacted Fleck’s fourth-down decisions last week. Maryland was embarrassed last week in Evanston, where they lost to Northwestern by a 43-3 score. They surrendered 537 yards to a Wildcats’ offense was 123rd in the nation last year. Northwestern ran the ball 53 times for 325 yards against the Terrapins. Maryland has five starters on defense back that was 109th by allowing 449.2 yards-per-game with 177.9 of those yards coming on the ground.The Terrapins gained only 207 yards in that game while being on the field for under 23 minutes. They averaged only 4.1 yards-per-play. Second-year head coach Mike Locksley tapped sophomore Taulia Tagovailoa as his starting quarterback. The younger brother of Tua transferred to College Park from Alabama, where Locksley was the offensive coordinator two years ago. Tagovailoa’s career with Maryland did not start as planned, with him passing for 94 yards while completing 14 of his 25 passes. He also threw three interceptions. The Terrapins were last in the Big Ten last year in time of possession, so keeping their defense off the field may continue to be a problem for Locksley’s team.Maryland was only 3-9 last season, but they have bowl aspirations in Locksley’s second year with the program with twelve starters back. The Terrapins lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession while losing 36 starts from the first-string to injuries last season. Minnesota has 13 starters back from Fleck’s 11-2 team defeated Auburn in the Outback Bowl by a 31-24 score. BetOnline lists the Golden Gophers as a 19.5-point road favorite with the total set at 61. The ESPN broadcast begins at 7:30 PM ET. 

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