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2022 Florida Gators Preview

by Matt Fargo

Friday, Jul 08, 2022

Florida Gators2021-22 Season Record 6-7 (2-6 SEC East) - 3-10-0 ATS - 6-7-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 6Defense - 7OverviewIt has been a nightmare in Florida since the days of Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer roaming the sidelines as the Gators have been unable to find the right fit as head coach. It was another losing season for Florida and the word another was never in the vocabulary as it is now three losing years over the nine seasons. 2021 was especially bad as the Gators won two SEC games, the fewest since 1986 when they had a six-game schedule and went 2-4. Bill Napier takes over the helm after three unsuccessful coaching runs in Gainesville and he brings in a winning culture that he formed in Louisiana. He brought in some pieces with him and while it could take some time, the hope is that the Gators brass finally hit the home run. They have just 13 starters back but some key pieces from Louisiana came over and Florida had the No. 17 ranked recruiting class for the upcoming season. OffenseFlorida was very good on offense as it finished No. 16 in total offense but could not generate enough points and was inconsistent when it could not be. The Gators managed to score 35 or more points six times, but just once over its last six games, against FCS Samford, and that led to the overall demise. Napier brings in a high powered scheme and he turns to Anthony Richardson to lead the offense. He was average in mop up duty last season behind Emory Jones but his abilities should make him flourish in this system. Florida lost its leading receiver in the transfer portal but has Justin Shorter to move into the top spot with plenty of depth after that. The running game has to be rehauled as the top three rushers are gone but this is another position where depth in massive. The offense will lean on a line that showed impressive progress in the spring and will be sound. DefenseThe defense improved from 2020 but was still not every good compared to previous years. The Gators finished No. 73 in scoring defense and to say they gave up late in the season would be fact as exemplified by the 52 points allowed to Samford. The defensive line was awful against the rush and mediocre getting to the quarterback but three veterans are back in what looks to be a good situation for improvement in those areas. The linebackers can pick up any slack even though they lost their best player to transfer as Florida gets back its 2020 leading tackler Ventrell Miller who missed almost all of last season and two of the top four leading tacklers are back. The passing defense was good as it finished No. 36 in yards allowed but a lot of that was due to teams running so much. The Gators had only nine interceptions which was tied for No. 80 and that has to vastly improve. 2022 Season OutlookTwo SEC wins will not cut it again and we can pretty much guarantee that is going to improve as previous head coach Dan Mullin lost his team and Napier is changing the culture for the good, at least that is the plan. If spring camp showed anything, the players are buying in. It is a very interesting schedule for the Gators in 2022 and one that could greatly benefit a team going through changes. Six of the first seven games are home as Florida opens with a brutal test against Utah and then hosts Kentucky in a revenge game before a cakewalk against USF. The Gators travel for the first time to Tennessee before three more at home, most notably LSU in another revenger. The back half is difficult with road games at Texas A&M and Florida St. and the annual neutral game against Geogia. The O/U win total is 7 and this should be a clear over thanks to the early favorable slate. 

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2022 Eastern Michigan Eagles Preview

by Matt Fargo

Friday, Jul 08, 2022

Eastern Michigan Eagles2021-22 Season Record 7-6 (4-4 MAC West) - 5-8-0 ATS - 6-7-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 8Defense - 6OverviewBecause of the pandemic, many players took advantage of the extra year granted and a lot of teams were blessed with an abundance of returning starters in 2021, including Eastern Michigan. The Eagles brought back 10 starters on each side of the ball and used that to record a 7-5 season and make it to the Lending Tree Bowl but were promptly blown out by Liberty 56-20. Yet it was another step in the right direction for Eastern Michigan that went 28 years without going to a bowl but has gone to the postseason four of the last five campaigns, discounting the 2-4 COVID season. Head coach Chris Creighton is in his ninth season with the program and he is the second highest tenured coach in the history of the school. They have another experienced group coming back with 14 returning starters and have a viable shot and making another bowl game to keep the run going.   OffenseThe offense slipped somewhat in 2021 but not by much as the Eagles dropped by 10 ypg and three ppg from the 2010 six-game season despite almost everyone back. Eight players return on the unit this season but they have to replace quarterback Ben Bryant who threw for 2,921 yards, 14 touchdowns and six interceptions and led Eastern Michigan to the No. 33 passing offense in the country. The situation going into 2022 probably will not be decided until fall camp as three quarterbacks will by vying for the starting job. There are plenty of targets to get the ball to as most every receiver of note is back led by Hassan Beydoun and Dylan Drummond who combined for 1,585 yards and 10 scores. A running back has to emerge as the leading rusher is gone and the No. 112 rushing offense last season should get better behind an offensive line that has four starters returning. DefenseThe stop unit is what held the Eagles back as they allowed 34 or more points in six games including four of their last five. The defense did improve from the previous season and Eastern Michigan is hoping for another year of improvement. The Eagles finished No. 104 in total defense and No. 82 in scoring defense and while only six starters are back, they are all big time players. The defensive line will be the strength with the most experience back and they have to do a better job of stopping the run as they were gashed for 200 or more yards eight times. Jose Ramirez did the best job to disrupt the opponent backfield but he cannot do it alone after finishing No. 127 in the nation with just 45 tackles for loss with Ramirez accounting for more than 25 percent of those. The secondary is the weak link coming in with only two players with starting experience so a pass rush in crucial. 2022 Season OutlookAfter a 3-21 start, Creighton has put together a 34-36 record over his last six years and no other coach has had a sustained run of even more than three years since 1988-1990 by Jim Harkema. Some say he is on the hot seat because he is 0-4 in bowl games but that is a nonsensical reason for a team that hardly ever even got there. If a quarterback can be found to run the show, the ascent should continue. The schedule sets up pretty well for the Eagles as they open against Eastern Kentucky to get ready for back-to-back road games against Louisiana and Arizona St., both likely losses but an upset is not out of the question. They are back home against Buffalo and Massachusetts so a 3-2 start is to be expected and the MAC slate is favorable with the three big games all at home. The O/U win total of 6.5 will come down to the final two road games against Akron and Kent St.  

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2022 East Carolina Pirates Preview

by Matt Fargo

Friday, Jul 08, 2022

East Carolina Pirates2021-22 Season Record 7-5 (5-3 AAC) - 7-4-1 ATS - 4-8-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 7Defense - 8OverviewEast Carolina had a solid run under Skip Holtz and Ruffin McNeill from 2006 to 2014 with winning records in seven of those nine seasons and securing a bowl bid eight times. It was then a rough stretch for six straight years where the Pirates averaged 3.5 wins with the program stuck in neutral. Current head coach Mike Houston was involved in the last two of those campaigns but things got right last season as East Carolina went 7-5, securing just its second winning record in the AAC since joining the conference in 2014. The Pirates were invited to the Military Bowl to face Boston College but it was cancelled due to COVID and while they returned 10 starters on each side of the ball last year, all is not lost in 2022 as they bring back 15 starters and a returning production ranking of No. 44. This could be, and should be, the time East Carolina turns the corner now and going forward. OffenseThe Pirates finished No. 39 in the country in total offense and No. 56 in scoring offense, nearly reaching 30 ppg. The Pirates have seven starters back on offense including quarterback Holton Ahlers who had a decent season where he completed 61.8 percent of his passes for 3,126 yards, 18 touchdowns and 10 interceptions but he needs to make better decisions and become a more efficient passer. He loses his top receiver but three players are back that accumulated at least 400 yards receiving so there should not be a falloff whatsoever. The running game was solid with Keaton Mitchell leading the way with 1,132 yards and nine touchdowns and backup Rahjai Harris racking up 579 yards and four scores. The offensive line brings back three players with starting experience and while they opened holes for the backs, they have to protect Ahlers as they allowed 37 sacks. DefenseThe defense had some really good games and some real clunkers as the Pirates allowed 20 points or less four times but gave up 31 or more points five times to finish No. 67 overall in scoring defense. They bring back a solid nucleus with eight returning starters and have a chance to take a big step forward. East Carolina is strong at the linebacker position with all three starters back but they need to develop a bigger pass rush as they were No. 69 in the nation in sacks but bring back a slew of players who got into the backfield on multiple occasions. The defensive line is versatile and with the exception of a few bad games, they did a good job at stopping the run, allowing 143 or fewer rushing yards in half of their games. The backfield was extremely young last season but most everyone with playing experience is back with the exception of safety Jaquan McMillian who led the team with five picks. 2022 Season OutlookThe Pirates were clutch last season with a slew of close victories, four by four points or less, but that is tough to maintain on a consistent basis. Making it to a bowl game was huge for the program and not being able to play in it will fuel the fire this season to get another shot at the postseason and the pieces are in place to do so. East Carolina opens the season with four straight home games and while the first is a doozy against NC State, it follows that up with contests against Old Dominion, Campbell and Navy with the former and latter having projected wins of 4.5. Three of the four most difficult AAC games are at home with the exception of a game at Cincinnati following a nonconference game at BYU. The O/U win total is set at 6.5 and we see five likely wins on the slate so if they can upset a couple big guns at home, the Pirates may actually play a bowl game this year. 

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2022 Duke Blue Devils Preview

by Matt Fargo

Friday, Jul 08, 2022

Duke Blue Devils2021-22 Season Record 3-9 (0-8 ACC Coastal) - 4-8-0 ATS - 6-6-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 6Defense - 5OverviewDavid Cutcliffe put together the greatest stretch in Duke football history as the Blue Devils won six games or more in six of seven seasons between 2012 and 2018. The last two seasons have seen a significant drop off as Duke has gone 5-18 including a 1-17 record in the ACC and have actually had a losing record in the conference in six straight years. Cutcliffe is gone and Duke hired Mike Elko as its 19th head coach to get the program turned around and it will start with defense which he is known for at former stops at Texas A&M and Notre Dame. The Blue Devils closed last season with eight straight losses with the defense allowing a whopping 46.6 ppg and no team can succeed with that. Only 11 starters are back in 2022 and they have one of the worst returning production rankings in the country so it could take some time for any sort of significant improvement in Durham. OffenseDespite the poor recent results, the Duke offense has increased its production over the last three seasons but scoring went down and that can normally be attributed to not making the plays on third down but the Blue Devils were efficient, ranking No. 45 in that category. The problem was turnovers as they gave it away 21 times which was tied for No. 100 in the country. The offense this season is basically starting over with new players at the key positions but they can build around an experienced offensive line that returns four starters. Duke will turn to Riley Leonard at quarterback and while he saw limited action, he had a standout game against Louisville, going 13-13 showing his accuracy. He loses his top receiver but the next three are back that combined for 1,207 yards. Running back Jordan Moore averaged 5.0 ypc in a backup role and will take over the top spot. DefenseThis is where things really need to improve. The defense was one of the worst in the country last season and one of the worst in program history as Duke was ranked No. 130 in total defense and No. 129 in scoring defense. The defensive line was a mess as there was no pass rush, finishing with only 21 sacks and they could not stop the run, allowing well over 200 ypg. This is a veteran line that needs to get significantly better in both areas. The strength will be in the middle as the linebacking corps brings back a pair of playmaking tacklers that can get to the ball and if the front four can improve, they can help out a pass defense that was atrocious. Duke was No. 123 in passing efficiency defense and the good news is that there is a complete rehaul as a fresh start in a new system can only make it better. The Blue Devils had only 14 takeaways last season and five of those came in one game. 2022 Season OutlookThere were never any real glory years for Duke football as it went to only two bowl games from 1961-2011 but a run of six in seven years showed some promise until the recent fall. Elko has his work cut out and looks to build a good foundation for the future. It has a favorable early schedule but the Blue Devils do not have a bye week until the final week in October which could go either way. They open with a home game against Temple and travel to an equally bad Northwestern team before facing North Carolina A&T at home before travelling to Kansas to close out the nonconference slate. A 4-0 start is unlikely but more that doable. In the ACC, four of the five toughest games are at home and they miss Clemson and NC State from the Atlantic. The O/U win total is set at 3 and that is a very gettable number which could be attained by October so an over will not take much after that. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 07/08/2022

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Jul 08, 2022

The Friday sports card features MLB and CFL action.Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Tampa Bay Rays visit Cincinnati to play the Reds at 6:40 PM ET. Shane McClanahan takes the ball for the Rays to pitch against Luis Castillo of the Reds. Tampa Bay is a -155 money line road favorite with the total set at 8 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Los Angeles Angels play at Baltimore to play the Orioles at 7:05 PM ET. The Angels turn to Reid Detmers as their starting pitcher against the Orioles’ Tyler Wells. Both teams are priced as a -110 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 PM ET. New York is at home against Miami ,with Chris Bassitt pitching for the Mets against Pablo Lopez on the hill for the Marlins. The Mets are a -165 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. New York plays at Boston with the Yankees pitching Nestor Cortes against the Res Sox’s Connor Seabold. The Yankees are a -155 money line road favorite at Caesar’s with an over/under of 9.5. The Atlanta Braves are at home against the Washington Nationals at 7:20 PM ET. Charlie Morton takes the mound for the Braves to duel against Erick Fedde of the Nationals. Atlanta is a -280 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Minnesota Twins visit Texas to play the Rangers at 8:05 PM ET. The Twins turn to Sonny Gray in their starting rotation to pitch against the Rangers’ Jon Gray. Minnesota is a -115 money line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 8:10 PM ET. Chicago is at home against Detroit with Lucas Giolito pitching for the White Sox against Tarik Skubal of the Tigers. The White Sox are a -165 money line favorite with a total of 7.5. Milwaukee hosts Pittsburgh, with the Brewers turning to Aaron Ashby on the mound to pitch against the Pirates’ J.T. Brubaker. The Brewers are a -215 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Kansas City plays at home against Cleveland with Brady Singer pitching for the Royals against Aaron Civale of the Guardians. The Royals are a -115 money line favorite with a total of 9. The St. Louis Cardinals host the Philadelphia Phillies at 8:15 PM ET. Adam Wainwright takes the mound for the Cardinals against Zack Wheeler of the Phillies. St. Louis is a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Three more MLB games begin at 9:40 PM ET. Arizona is at home against Colorado, with the Diamondbacks pitching Zac Gallen against the Rockies’ Chad Kohl. The Diamondbacks are a -165 money line favorite with a total of 8.5. Houston travels to Oakland with Jose Urquidy pitching for the Astros against Paul Blackburn of the A’s. The San Francisco Giants visit San Diego to play the Padres. Blake Snell pitches for the Padres against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Giants. Two MLB games conclude the card at 10:10 PM ET. Toronto plays at Seattle with the Blue Jays pitching Ross Stripling against the Mariners’ George Kirby. Los Angeles is at home against Chicago, with Tyler Anderson pitching for the Dodgers against the Cubs’ Keegan Thompson. The Dodgers are a -225 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Week 5 of the Canadian Football League continues with the Saskatchewan Roughriders hosting the Ottawa Redblacks on ESPN News at 9:30 PM ET. The Roughriders won for the third time in their first four games with their 41-20 win against Montreal as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Redblacks are winless in three games this year after their 34-31 loss to British Columbia as a 1.5-point underdog on Thursday. Saskatchewan is a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 44.5.

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2022 Connecticut Huskies Preview

by Matt Fargo

Thursday, Jul 07, 2022

Connecticut Huskies2021-22 Season Record 1-11 (N/A) - 6-6-0 ATS - 6-5-1 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 8Defense - 8OverviewIt was another rough season for Connecticut and head coach Randy Edsall had seen enough, announcing his retirement after two games effective at the end of the season but he was not given that as he was let go immediately. The Huskies finished 1-11, the only win coming against Yale of the FCS and they have gone 4-32 over the last four years including 2020 where they did not even take a snap. Only one win over this span was over an FBS team, Massachusetts, which is just as bad. They have won more than three games only once since 2013 which resulted in a 6-7 season and the last winning record came in the days of the Big East. Jim Mora, Jr. takes over as head coach and he is in a decent situation for improvement as he has a lot coming back but as is the case sometimes, more can be less and it is difficult to get rid of poison left in a program but maybe Mora, Jr. has a cure. OffenseEight starters are back on an offense that was close to the worst in every major category including No. 128 in total offense and No. 129 in scoring offense. It will not get any worse but how much improvement there is comes down to the quarterback play. How bad was it? Six players took a snap last season and only one of those is back but the Huskies will rely on Penn St. transfer Ta'Quan Roberson to take over as the starter and he has a ton of potential as a duel-threat. He has a plethora of receivers to target as three of the top four are back and they also should have a healthy Cameron Ross back after missing 10 games last season after an outstanding 2019. Their leading rusher is back as well as Nate Carter rushed for 578 yards on a solid 4.6 ypc. The weakness is the offensive line with only two starters back and there will be issues if this unit cannot at least be somewhat competent.  DefenseDefensively, Connecticut was nearly as bad as the offense ranking No. 106 or worse in overall, scoring, rushing and passing defenses and those problems were similar to the other side where having a year of not hitting the field was devastating. Eight starters are back on the stop unit and a lot of young players received plenty of time last season so there is experience and finally with a year under their belt, better things should come about. The Huskies did lose their best pass rusher and only 7.5 sacks return so the defensive line is already behind the eight-ball and is the clear weakness. The secondary has a pair of upperclassmen corners and while the safeties are only sophomores, all four started last season. The strength last year were the linebackers and that will be the case again as the two top tacklers are back and Connecticut gets an SEC transfer to man the outside. 2022 Season OutlookThings have to turn around sometime or football might not be around much longer in Storrs at the top level. Clearly, Edsall was past his prime and his second stint derailed the program with possible long lasting effects. Mora, Jr. has experience at the highest of levels so his presence alone is big and should get the most out of this team. The schedule is frontloaded for failure as the Huskies travel to Utah St. in their opener but do get Central Connecticut St. at home a week later and then Syracuse before going to Michigan and NC State in back-to-back weeks. Another loss at home against Fresno St. likely ends the first half at 1-5 and while there are a couple winnable games down the stretch, it will not be easy. The O/U win total is 2.5 which seems about right but trying to figure out that third winner, let alone the second, will make over bettors sweat it out. 

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2022 Colorado Buffaloes Preview

by Matt Fargo

Thursday, Jul 07, 2022

Colorado Buffaloes2021-22 Season Record 4-8 (3-6 Pac 12 South) - 6-6-0 ATS - 5-7-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 7Defense - 5OverviewThere was a time when Colorado was a national force in college football back when it was part of the Big 12 and a move to the Pac 12 would have thought the Buffaloes could bring those days back. Instead, it has been nine losing seasons in 10 years not counting the 4-2 COVID-shortened campaign including a 4-8 record last season. They have gone through five coaches and in the second year of Karl Dorrell in 2011, expectations were high in Boulder as 17 starters were back but a 1-4 start derailed any of that and when they lost, they lost big with seven of the eight losses coming by at least 22 points. Dorrell is now on the clock and tried to buy some time by revamping his coaching staff but it will take a big effort to likely keep his job. The early schedule is not in their favor and with just 12 starters back and a poor recruiting class, it could be another tough season. OffenseThe offense was one of the worst in the country last season as Colorado averaged 257.4 ypg and 18.8 ppg, No. 129 and No. 121 respectively and that was with an offense with nine starters back following a breakout the previous season. The Buffaloes do bring seven starters back this season so they should see an improvement and it will come down to quarterback Brendon Lewis, that is if he even wins the job. He was unable to get the ball downfield as he averaged a paltry 5.0 ypa and threw for just 1,540 yards with 10 touchdowns and J.T. Shrout could take over coming back from injury. The running game was better, but not much, as Colorado averaged only 126.2 ypg on the ground with the leading rusher gone. The two top receivers transferred out which they cannot be blamed for, and a young group takes over. The offensive line is also a work in progress and could struggle early. DefenseDefensively, Colorado was not much better. It was ranked 91st or worse in total defense, passing defense and rushing defense and while allowing 17 points or less four times, the other eight games resulted in giving up an average of 35.8 ppg. With only five starters back, there is work to be done and that starts in the secondary. The passing defense was bad and three starters transferred out so this is a raw back end that needs to grown up in a hurry in the pass-happy Pac 12. The defensive line is big and athletic but needs to get a bigger push in not only stopping the run but getting to the quarterback as the Buffaloes had only 14 sacks, tied for No. 126 in the country. Linebacker Carson Wells and his 5.5 sacks have moved on so this group has to come up big and the whole defense needs to take the ball away more after forcing only 14 turnovers last season including just four fumbles. 2022 Season OutlookThere are some good parts in place for Colorado but not enough to contend in the South unless the quarterback situation has a miraculous turnaround. The Buffaloes are in the bottom half of the country in returning production so many newcomers will be asked to step up. The schedule sets up for a 0-4 start as they will be underdogs in all four games as they open at home against TCU as a nine-point underdog and then travel to Air Force and Minnesota to close out nonconference play. UCLA comes to visit in the Pac 12 opener and then it finally gets a quick break with games against Arizona and California before closing the season with six games against teams projected for winning seasons. The Buffaloes win total is set at 3.5 which seems about right based on the strength of this slate and it will take some upsets in the second half of the season to surpass that total. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 07/07/2022

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Jul 07, 2022

The Thursday sports card features MLB and CFL action.Major League Baseball has 13 games on its schedule. Two games throw out the first pitch at 2:10 PM ET. Houston hosts Kansas City with Justin Verlander taking the ball for the Astros against Kris Bubic of the Royals. The Astros are a -350 money line favorite with the total set at 8.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Cincinnati is at home against Pittsburgh, with the Reds pitching Mike Minor against the Pirates’ Roansy Contreras. The Reds are a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the Washington Nationals at 4:05 PM ET. Bailey Falter pitches for the Phillies against Joan Adon of the Nationals. Philadelphia is a -180 money line favorite with a total of 10. The Baltimore Orioles play at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 7:05 PM ET. The Orioles turn to Jordan Lyles in their starting rotation against the Angels’ Chase Silseth of the Angels. Baltimore is a -115 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Three more MLB games start at 7:10 PM ET. New York travels to Boston with Gerrit Cole pitching for the Yankees against Josh Winckowski of the Red Sox. The Yankees are a -165 money line road favorite with a total of 9. New York is at home against Miami with the Mets pitching Trevor Williams against the Marlins Daniel Castrano. The Mets are a -170 money line favorite with an over/under of 9. Pittsburgh visits Cincinnati with Bryse Wilson pitching for the Pirates against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Reds. The Atlanta Braves host the St. Louis Cardinals at 7:20 PM ET. The Braves turn to Spencer Strider in their starting rotation against Matthew Liberatore of the Cardinals. Atlanta is a -210 money line favorite with a total of 9. The Chicago White Sox play at home against the Detroit Tigers at 8:10 PM ET. Dylan Cease takes the ball for the White Sox against Beau Brisk for the Tigers. Chicago is a -240 money line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 9:40 PM ET. Colorado plays at Arizona with the Rockies turning to Austin Gomber in their rotation against Dallas Keuchel of the Diamondbacks. The Rockies are a -145 money line road favorite at BetRivers with a total of 9.5. San Diego is at home against San Francisco, with Joe Musgrove pitching for the Padres against Logan Webb for the Giants. The Padres are a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two MLB games conclude the card at 10:10 PM ET. Los Angeles is at home against Chicago, with the Dodgers pitching Tony Gonsolin against Mark Leiter, Jr. of the Cubs. The Dodgers are a -275 money line favorite with a total of 8. Seattle hosts Toronto with Marco Gonzales pitching for the Mariners against a starting pitcher yet to be determined for the Blue Jays. 

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2022 Colorado St. Rams Preview

by Matt Fargo

Thursday, Jul 07, 2022

Colorado St. Rams2021-22 Season Record 3-9 (2-6 MWC Mountain) - 4-8-0 ATS - 6-6-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 6Defense - 6OverviewIt was a quick hook for head coach Steve Addazio who finished 3-9 in his first full season at Colorado St. and for a team that had not won more than seven games in five seasons before he arrived, it was a surprising fire. He might have just been a band-aid before the Rams got the guy they really wanted in Jay Norvell who made a lateral move in the MWC, coming over from Nevada. He went 33-26 with the Wolf Pack and while he did nothing spectacular there, Colorado St. upped the ante by offering him a $4 million raise that he could not pass up. Colorado St. was No. 57 in total offense and No. 66 in total defense last season which was not horrible but a six-game losing streak to end the year sealed the fate. The Rams have not won a bowl game since 2013 and even getting to the postseason in 2022 looks to be a challenge with all of the difficult games taking place on the road. OffenseAs mentioned, the offense was not horrible and should improve under Norvell and his wide open passing attack. Six starters return and five newcomers that will be taking over followed their coach to Colorado St. Quarterback Clay Millen only played in two games for the Wolf Pack last season but was the projected starter before making the move where he will take over right away. Along with him come two receivers in Tory Horton and Melquan Stovall who combined for 1,302 yards receiving on 11.4 yards per completion so there will be a seamless transition. The two top running backs are gone but potential is there with A'Jon Vivens and another Nevada transfer in Avery Morrow. The offensive line will be replacing four starters, all experienced transfers with two of those coming from, yes you guessed it, Nevada. It is an interesting mix but one that should prosper. DefenseThe defense was good but inconsistent last season especially down the stretch where the Rams allowed 37 ppg during the final six games. The strength is at linebacker where two of the top three returning tacklers reside and will be the core to get the unit into better situations. The defensive line features Mohamed Kamara at one end and he was a big disrupter as he had 6.5 sacks and with an upgrade on the other side, he should be even better. Overall, the Rams finished No. 24 with 83 tackles for loss and the pieces are in place for at least similar production with possible upside. Getting to the quarterback will be important with a secondary bringing in a lot of new faces. Three transfers come in to help a unit that finished No. 39 in passing defense but lost most everybody. Overall, the defense is in a good place that could improve if the chemistry holds. 2022 Season OutlookThis is a program that should be better than what has taken place over the last two decades with just one season with double-digit wins and while the Rams will not get there this season, the future looks bright with Norvell if he can bring in strong recruiting that was once one of the best in the conference. Colorado St. opens the season at Michigan as a four-touchdown underdog but then has three winnable games on deck with a matchup at Washington St. being a game that could light an early spark. Norvell then heads back to Nevada for the conference opener before a pair of home games against Utah St. and Hawaii. Three of the next four are on the road with two difficult ones at Boise St. and Air Force. The O/U win total is 5.5 and the schedule has five home games that should be won easily so it will take an upset on the road or Utah St. at home to get the over and a bowl invite. 

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2022 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Preview

by Matt Fargo

Wednesday, Jul 06, 2022

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers2021-22 Season Record 11-2 (6-2 SBC East) - 5-7-1 ATS - 6-7-0 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 4Defense - 3OverviewIn 2020, Coastal Carolina returned 14 starters and were one of a very few amount of teams that were able to play nearly a full schedule and it took advantage by going 11-0 in the regular season before losing to Liberty by three points in the Cure Bowl. Last season, the Chanticleers had one of the most experienced teams in the country as they had 19 starters back and used that to their advantage, rolling to an 11-2 record with the two losses coming by just five points. Things will be quite a bit different this season as only seven starters are back and Coastal Carolina in the third most inexperienced team in the country as far as returning production. Head coach Jamey Chadwell is in his fifth season and while it is a young team, he and his staff are doing something right and will again be a force in the Sun Belt but the Chanticleers will get the best out of every opponent. OffenseThe offense is nearly a complete rebuild but the Chanticleers have quarterback Grayson McCall to lead the unit following a sensational 2021 season. He threw for 2,558 yards with 23 touchdowns and only three interceptions and that is with missing two games for a second straight season. His TD/INT ratio is an incredible 46/5 over that span and now we will see what he is really made of. His leading returning receiver is a running back and the most productive returning receiver is Tyson Mobley with six catches for 82 yards. Braydon Bennett had 20 catches out of the backfield and he takes over the starting job after rushing for 528 yards while averaging a robust 7.8 ypc. The rushing aspect will be just fine as the offensive line, while a redo, is experienced as there was a lot of rotation and they know the system so there should not be a regression up front. DefenseCoastal Carolina was rock solid on defense in all aspects as they were No. 17 overall and No. 19 in points allowed but like the offense, new faces will be all over. The one weakness last season was taking the ball away as they forced only 12 turnovers, No. 112 in the nation, and law of averages should up that which is a necessity. The strength will be the defensive line headlined by tackle Josaiah Stewart who had 12.5 sacks and 43 tackles and overall, there is good size and decent depth that can again create a push. The back half of the front seven is more in trouble as the linebackers are very inexperienced and will be learning on the fly but being in the system for most of the potential starters is a plus. The secondary was also decimated with just one starter back and there is corner depth but the inside will need playmakers to step up. This is likely a unit that will fall off. 2022 Season OutlookFor a team that has played only five seasons at this level, the last two years have been pretty amazing even though the success has mostly come in the Sun Belt. The Chanticleers were 6-18 in their first three years in the conference and have gone 14-2 over the last two seasons and while there should be fewer wins, how many is debatable. Coaching has clearly played a big part in the success and this will be the biggest challenge for Chadwell but a big fall is unlikely. Coastal Carolina opens the season with a tough game against Army, part of three straight home games before conference play begins. Three of the four conference road games are against three of the worst teams and they get Appalachian St. at home. The O/U win total is 8 and this one looks like a crapshoot as we most likely will not know this team because of the turnover until after the first month is complete. 

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Countdown to NFL 2022-Part 3

by Larry Ness

Wednesday, Jul 06, 2022

The NFL played its first-ever 17-game season in 2021 (over 18 weeks) and that seems to be the 'new normal,' at least until the season is expanded to 18 games (wait for it!). Since it's 100 percent likely that anyone reading this article is betting on NFL games, I'll start with an ATS recap of the 2021 season, comparing it to the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Home teams went 132-123-1(.518) two seasons ago (2019), the worst record since the advent of the 16-game schedule. Then, in 2020, home teams had a losing record for the FIRST time in history, going 127-128-1. One could argue that empty and partially empty stadiums played a role in that. However, that situation no longer applied in 2021. That said, home teams struggled again in 2021, finishing just 138-131-1 (.517) SU and 128-140-2 ATS (47.8%). Home dogs used to be considered 'money in the bank' but home 'puppies' were only 34-69 (.330) SU, although they were a more respectable 49-54 (47.6%) ATS. For those O/U bettors, I hope you were an 'under' bettor, as there were 146 unders, 123 overs and three pushes (that's 54.3% favoring the under). The best ATS teams were Dallas (13-4) and Green Bay (12-5), followed by Detroit which was 11-6, despite going 3-13-1 SU. FIVE teams went 10-7. The worst ATS records belonged to 3-14 Jacksonville (5-12 ATS) and 5-12 Carolina (5-12 ATS). The 6-11 Bears, plus the 4-13 Giants and the 4-13 Jets all finished 6-11 ATS. The Vikings were the best 'Over' team (11-6) with the Chargers, Chiefs, Eagles and Jets going 10-7. The best 'Under' team was the Broncos (12 unders-to-5 overs), followed by the Giants (11-5-1) and the Steelers (11-6).Come mid-August, I will be offering my top selections for team over/under win totals for the 2022 regular season and in this article, I will review the NFL playoff structure, THEN and NOW!  The leagues merged in 1970 and the 'new' NFL (with 26 teams) reorganized into two conferences of three divisions each (AFC and NFC). For you old-timers or youngsters with a passion and appreciation for history, I highly recommend "The NFL, Year One" (The 1970 Season and the Dawn of Modern Football) by Brad Schultz. From the 1970 season to the 1977 season, four teams from each conference (for a total of eight teams) qualified for the playoffs each year, the three division champions plus a "wild card" team. Expansion came to the regular season in 1978, going from 14 games to 16. The league added one more wild card team for each conference, as the two wild card teams played the week before the division winners (wild card winner would then play the No. 1 seed from each conference). The 1990 season saw a third wild card team for each conference added, expanding the playoffs to twelve teams. The lowest-seeded division winner was then "demoted" to the wild card week, leaving the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in each conference with an opening 'bye week!'The 1990 format continued until the 2002 expansion (to 32 teams) and reorganization into eight divisions. In this format, the four division winners and two wild cards are seeded 1–6, with the top two seeds receiving byes, and the highest seed in each round guaranteed to play the lowest seed. There were calls to expand the playoffs to 14 teams beginning in 2006 but there were no changes made. However, the "COVID" season of 2020 brought the implementation of a 14-team playoff format, placing a third wild-card team in each conference, and only giving the top seed a bye. The current 14-team playoff field seems like the "new normal" but then again, don't bet on it.As we look ahead to what to expect in NFL 2022, we now have a two-decade history to look back on. On average, how many teams repeat their playoff appearance from one season to the next, compared to how many teams are making a playoff appearance the season after missing the postseason. As noted above, the 2002 playoff field expanded from 10 to 12 games and lasted through the 2019 postseason. So how many teams repeated their playoff appearance from the previous season, compared to teams making a playoff appearance after missing the postseason the previous year.Here's what my research revealed. 98 of 204 playoff teams repeated their playoff appearance from 2003 through 2019, while 106 teams were playoff 'newbies!' Doing the math, that means that on average, 48.0 percent of the teams were back in the playoffs the following season, while 52.0 percent of the teams were in the playoffs after missing the postseason the previous season. With the field expanding to 14 teams in 2020 (from 12), there were seven playoff participants from 2019 and seven non-playoff teams from 2019 in the 2020 field. For the 2021 postseason, six teams were playoff repeaters from 2020, while eight teams were new to the field from 2020.That's pretty consistent, so we should expect pretty much a 50-50 split, meaning about half of the coming playoff field will be teams that did NOT compete in last year's postseason. Just a thought. That kind of uncertainty ("On Any Given Sunday") just may be why the NFL stands atop the sporting world as "America's Game." Here's another great read, "America's Game" (The Epic Story of How Pro Football Captured a Nation) by Michael MacCambridge,I'll be back next Wednesday (July 13th) with my first "real look" at NFL 2022. See you then.Good luck...Larry

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2022 Clemson Tigers Preview

by Matt Fargo

Wednesday, Jul 06, 2022

Clemson Tigers2021-22 Season Record 10-3 (6-2 ACC Atlantic) - 5-8-0 ATS - 4-8-1 O/UReturning StartersOffense - 9Defense - 6OverviewMost any team would take back-to-back 10-win seasons but those can be considered downers for Clemson after having won at least 12 games in the previous five campaigns. Still very damn good and the Tigers will look to extend their 11 consecutive double-digit win seasons in 2022 and they once again have the firepower to do so. Last year was the first one since 2014 that Clemson was not ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll at some point in the season as it got to No. 3 and finished No. 14, the third lowest in the 11 years. Head coach Dabo Swinney has built one of the best programs in the country and it is not going anywhere as it should roll through the ACC once again with a loaded roster that will improve in areas it fell short in 2021. The Tigers have the fourth lowest odds to win the National Championship at +1,000 so expectations remain sky high along with the other usual suspects. OffenseThe offense was easily the downfall for Clemson as it was No. 95 in total offense and No. 79 in scoring offense as it had its worst quarterback play in quite some time. D.J. Uiagalelei was bad as he completed only 54.7 percent of his passes while throwing nine touchdowns and nine interceptions and while he will come in as the starter unless fall camp is a disaster, he needs to pick it up with Cade Klubnik, a five-star recruit from Austin who bucked the Longhorns, ready and waiting. There are big time playmakers at receiver to get the ball to as the top target is gone but the next two in line in Joseph Ngata and Beaux Collins return. The running game was decent with Will Shipley and Kobe Pace sharing the carries and putting up 1,268 yards and should evolve more behind a veteran offensive line that did its job and will be better in opening holes and pass protection. DefenseClemson has had a slight drop off on defense the last two seasons but very slight and it finished No. 9 overall and No. 2 in scoring defense, allowing only 15.0 ppg. The Tigers bring back six starters and while the two top tacklers have moved on, they are loaded at every level. The strength is the defensive line with four potential NFL players manning a great run stopping unit and the ability to get to the quarterback. Clemson finished No. 8 in rushing defense and had 42 sacks which was tenth most in the nation so they will once again be all over the place in opponent backfields. Some key losses took place in the linebacking corps but there is experience and of course talent. Clemson was not great against the pass last year and have a bunch to replace as it lost both corners but just like every level, the newcomers are not green and should step in and be just fine. 2022 Season OutlookClemson has been so good and so dominant that it has been an underdog during the regular season only two times since 2015 and despite all of the chalk, they are still up in the money. The Tigers closed last season with six straight wins and they can carry that into this season although momentum is not an issue. They open with a conference game against Georgia Tech in Atlanta and then have a pair of nonconference home games against Furman and Louisiana Tech before going fully into the ACC. Three of the next four games are on the road with a couple small tests but nothing they should not get through. The final four conference games are at home with a game at Notre Dame mixed in and that could decide CFP or bust since it is in November. The O/U wins are at 10.5 and while that is big, they will be favored in every game with ND possibly an exception. 

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