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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 03/05/2023

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Mar 05, 2023

The Sunday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL The National Basketball Association has ten games on its docket. The Dallas Mavericks host the Phoenix Suns on ABC at 1:10 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite, with the total set at 233.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two more NBA games tip off at 3:40 PM ET. The Chicago Bulls play at home against the Indiana Pacers as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 226. The Golden State Warriors visit Los Angeles to play the Lakers on ABC as a 5-point road favorite with a total of 235.5. Two NBA games start at 6:10 PM ET. The Brooklyn Nets are at home against the Charlotte Hornets as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 224. The Orlando Magic host the Portland Trail Blazers as a 2-point favorite with a total of 228.5. Two more NBA games begin at 7:10 PM ET. The Houston Rockets play at home against the San Antonio Spurs as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 230. The Oklahoma City Thunders are at home against the Utah Jazz as a 6-point favorite with a total of 238. Two NBA games begin at 7:40 PM ET. The Boston Celtics host the New York Knicks on ESPN as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227.5. The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Washington to play the Wizards as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 229. The Los Angeles Clippers play at home against the Memphis Grizzlies on ESPN at 10:10 PM ET as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 227.5. The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. The Carolina Hurricanes are at home against the Tampa Bay Lightning on TNT as a -145 money line favorite with a total of 6. Two more NHL games drop the puck at 6:07 PM ET. The Vegas Golden Knights host the Montreal Canadiens as a -280 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Philadelphia Flyers play at home against the Detroit Red Wings as a -125 money line favorite with a total of 6. The New Jersey Devils travel to Arizona to play the Coyotes at 7:07 PM ET as a -300 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Colorado Avalanche are at home against the Seattle Kraken as a -165 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The college basketball schedule has 11 games on national television. Houston plays at Memphis on CBS as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 146.5. Purdue hosts Illinois on Fox at 12:30 PM ET as an 8-point favorite with a total of 139.5. UNC-Asheville plays Campbell in the championship game of the Big South Conference tournament on ESPN2 at 1 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 136. Two NCAAB games on national television start at 2 PM ET. Drake plays Bradley in the finals of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament on the CBS Sports Network as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 130.5. Wichita State plays at home against South Florida on ESPNU as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 143.5. Liberty is at Kennesaw State on ESPN2 at 3 PM ET in the finals of the Atlantic Sun tournament as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 136.5. Two NCAAB games on national television begin at 4 PM ET. Furman battles Western Carolina in the semifinals of the Southern Conference tournament on ESPNU as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 153.5. Lafayette goes against American in the semifinals of the Patriot League tournament on the CBS Sports Network at 4 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 120.5. Indiana is at home against Michigan on CBS at 4:30 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 144.5. UT-Chattanooga plays Wofford in the semifinals of the Southern Conference tournament on ESPN News at 6:30 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 153. Wisconsin travels to Minnesota on FS1 at 7:30 PM ET as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 127.5. Matchweek 26 in the English Premier League continues with two matches on the USA Network. Everton plays at Nottingham Forest at 9 AM ET in a pick ‘em matchup with a total of 2 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Liverpool is at home against Manchester United at 11:30 AM ET in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 3. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 03/04/2023

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Mar 04, 2023

The Saturday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. The Toronto Raptors travel to Washington to play the Wizards at 5:10 PM ET as a 1-point road favorite, with the total set at 222.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Detroit Pistons at 7:40 PM ET as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 220. Two NBA games tip off at 8:10 PM ET. The Miami Heat play at home against the Atlanta Hawks as a 2-point favorite. The Houston Rockets are in San Antonio to play the Spurs as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 231. The Milwaukee Bucks host the Philadelphia 76ers on ABC as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 229. The Sacramento Kings play at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves as a 5.5-point favorite. The National Hockey League has 12 games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 12:37 PM ET. The Tampa Bay Lightning visit Buffalo to play the Sabres as a -155 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The New York Islanders are at home against the Detroit Red Wings as a -200 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Boston Bruins host the New York Rangers on ABC at 1:07 PM ET as a -170 money line favorite with a total of 6. The Colorado Avalanche play in Dallas against the Stars on ABC with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 6. Two NHL games start at 6:07 PM ET. The Washington Capitals are in San Jose to play the Sharks as a -140 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Florida Panthers play at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. There more NHL games begin at 7:07 PM ET. The Toronto Maple Leafs travel to Vancouver to play the Canucks as a -215 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers play in Winnipeg against the Jets as a -140 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Ottawa Senators are at home against the Columbus Bluejackets as a -240 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Nashville Predators visit Chicago to play the Blackhawks at 8:07 PM ET as a -210 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Calgary Flames host the Minnesota Wild at 10:07 PM ET as a -145 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Los Angeles Kings play at home against the St. Louis Blues at 10:37 PM ET as a -205 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has 20 games on major national television. Four NCAAB games on major national television tip-off at noon ET. Texas A&M plays at home against Alabama on CBS as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 150. Baylor is at home against Iowa State on ESPN2 as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 135.5. Providence hosts Seton Hall on Fox as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 139. Michigan State plays at home against Ohio State on ESPN as a 7-point favorite with a total of 139.5. Four more NCAAB games on major national television start at 2 PM ET. Marquette is at home against St. John’s on Fox as an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 158.5. Auburn hosts Tennessee on ESPN as a 2-point favorite with a total of 131.5. Virginia plays at home against Louisville on ESPN2 as an 18.5-point favorite with an over/under of 128. Arkansas is at home against Kentucky on CBS as a 5-point favorite with a total of 141.5. Three NCAAB games on major national television begin at 4 PM ET. Texas hosts Kansas on ESPN as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 148. Oregon plays at home against Stanford on CBS as a 7-point favorite with a total of 141. Virginia Tech is at home against Florida State on ESPN2 as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 149. Two more NCAAB games on national television start at 6 PM ET. Texas Tech hosts Oklahoma State on ESPN2 as a 6-point favorite with a total of 139.5. North Carolina plays at home against Duke on ESPN as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 143.5. Xavier is at home against Butler on FS1 as a 13-point favorite with a total of 142.5. UConn travels to Villanova on Fox at 7:30 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with an over/under of 138.5. Southeast Missouri State plays Tennessee Tech on ESPN2 at 8 PM in the championship game of the Ohio Valley Conference tournament at the Ford Center in Evansville, Indiana as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 150.5. Two more NCAAB games on major national television begin at 10 PM ET. UCLA is at home against Arizona on ESPN as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 148. BYU plays Loyola-Marymount on ESPN2 in the West Coast Conference tournament at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 147. San Francisco goes against Santa Clara on ESPN2 at 12:30 AM ET in the West Coast Conference tournament.Matchweek 26 in the English Premier League starts with seven matches. Manchester City hosts Newcastle United on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3 (all soccer odds from DraftKings). Five EPL matches begin at 10 AM ET. Arsenal plays at home against Bournemouth as a -2 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Aston Villa is at home against Crystal Palace as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2. Brighton and Hove Albion host West Ham United as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Chelsea plays at home against Leeds United on the USA Network as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Tottenham visits Wolverhampton as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Leicester City plays at Southampton on NBC at 12:30 PM ET in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/03/2023

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Mar 03, 2023

The Friday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, and NCAAB. The National Basketball Association has ten games on its docket. The Orlando Magic travel to Chicago to play the Bulls at 7:10 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite (all odds from DraftKings). Two more NBA games tip off at 7:40 PM ET. The Atlanta Hawks host the Portland Trail Blazers as a 7-point favorite, with the total set at 239.5. The Boston Celtics play at home against the Brooklyn Nets on ESPN. The Celtics won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 117-113 victory against Cleveland as a 5-point favorite on Wednesday. The Nets are on a four-game losing streak after a 142-118 loss at New York as a 7.5-point underdog on Wednesday. Boston is a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 228. Three NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. The New York Knicks are in Miami to play the Heat as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 215.5. The Phoenix Suns visit Chicago to play the Bulls as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 222. The Utah Jazz play in Oklahoma City against the Thunder as a 2-point road favorite. Three NBA games begin at 10:10 PM ET. The New Orleans Pelicans travel to Golden State to play the Warriors. The Los Angeles Clippers play in Sacramento against the Kings. The Denver Nuggets are at home against Memphis Grizzlies on ESPN. The Nuggets for the sixth time in their last seven games with their 133-112 victory in Houston as a 10.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Grizzlies are on a three-game winning streak after a 113-99 win at Houston on Wednesday. Denver is a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 234. The Minnesota Timberwolves are in Los Angeles to play the Lakers at 10:40 PM ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 228.The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. The Seattle Kraken visit Columbus to play the Bluejackets at 7:07 PM ET as a -165 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers host the Winnipeg Jets at 9:07 PM ET as a -155 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Carolina Hurricanes play at Arizona against the Coyotes at 9:37 PM ET as a -340 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Two games complete the NHL card at 10:07 PM ET. The Anaheim Ducks play at home against the Montreal Canadiens as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The New Jersey Devils go on the road to play the Vegas Golden Knights, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 6.The college basketball schedule has six games on national television. Two NCAAB games on national television tip-off at 6 PM ET. Kent State is at home against Akron on ESPNU as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 134. Toledo travels to Ball State on the CBS Sports Network as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 159. Dayton plays at Saint Louis on ESPN2 at 7 PM ET as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 137.Morehead State hosts Southeast Missouri State on ESPNU as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 142. UT-Martin is at Tennessee Tech on ESPN U at 10:30 PM ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 153.5. New Mexico visits Colorado State on FS1 as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 152.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/02/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Mar 02, 2023

The Thursday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, and NCAAB. The National Basketball Association has four games on its docket. The Toronto Raptors travel to Washington to play the Wizards as a 1-point road favorite (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Dallas Mavericks host the Philadelphia 76ers on TNT at 7:40 PM ET as a 3-point favorite. The Indiana Pacers play in San Antonio against the Spurs at 8:40 PM ET as a 4-point road favorite, with the total set at 238.5. The Los Angeles Clippers are in Golden State to play the Warriors on TNT at 10:10 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite. The National Hockey League has ten games on its slate. Five NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. The Boston Bruins are at home against the Buffalo Sabres as a -295 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Florida Panthers host the Nashville Predators as a -165 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The New York Rangers play at home against the Ottawa Senators as a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning are at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins as a -165 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Seattle Kraken visit Detroit to play the Red Wings, with both teams proved at -110 with an over/under of 6.5. The Dallas Stars play in Chicago against the Blackhawks at 8:37 PM ET as a -215 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs are in Calgary to play the Flames at 9:07 PM ET, with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 6.5. The Minnesota Wild travel to Vancouver to play the Canucks at 10:07 PM ET as a -165 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Two more games complete the NHL card at 10:37 PM ET. The Los Angeles Kings host the Montreal Canadiens as a -240 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The San Jose Sharks play at home against the St. Louis Blues as a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has 11 games on national television. Four NCAAB games on national television tip-off at 7 PM ET. Houston is at home against Wichita State on ESPN2 as a 17.5-point favorite with an over/under of 131.5. Temple hosts Central Florida on ESPNU as a 1-point favorite with a total of 133.5. Illinois plays at home against Michigan as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 144.5. Rutgers visits Minnesota on FS1 as an 8.5-point road favorite with a total of 126.5. Four NCAAB games on national television start at 9 PM ET. UCLA is at home against Arizona State on ESPN as an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 134. Purdue plays at Wisconsin on FS1 as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 128. Memphis is at SMU on ESPN2 as a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 151.5. Norfolk State plays at Howard on ESPNU in a pick ‘em game at Caesars with a total of 148.Three NCAAB games on national television begin at 11 PM ET. Arizona is at USC on ESPN as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 154.5. Washington State travels to Washington on ESPNU as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 133.5. Oregon hosts California on FS1 as a 20-point favorite with an over/under of 130.5. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, EPL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 03/01/2023

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Mar 01, 2023

The Wednesday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL. The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 PM ET. The Phoenix Suns travel to Charlotte to play the Hornets as a 10-point road favorite (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Chicago Bulls play in Detroit against the Pistons as a 5.5-point road favorite. Three more NBA games start at 7:40 PM ET. The Boston Celtics host the Cleveland Cavaliers on ESPN as a 6.5-point favorite. The Philadelphia 76ers are in Miami to play the Heat, with the total set at 215.5. The New York Knicks play at home against the Brooklyn Nets as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 225.5. Three NBA games begin at 8:10 PM ET. The Memphis Grizzlies visit Houston to play the Rockets as a 9.5-point road favorite with a total of 233.5. The Milwaukee Bucks are at home against the Orlando Magic as an 8.5-point favorite. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Los Angeles Lakers as a 1-point favorite. The Portland Trail Blazers play at home against the Los Angeles Lakers on ESPN at 10:10 PM ET as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 232.5. The National Hockey League has six games on its slate. The New York Rangers play in Philadelphia against the Flyers on TNT at 7:37 PM ET as a -200 money line road favorite with a total of 6. The Toronto Maple Leafs are in Edmonton to play the Oilers at 8:07 PM ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Dallas Stars are at home against the Arizona Coyotes at 8:37 PM ET as a -365 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Colorado Avalanche host the New Jersey Devils at 9:07 PM ET as a -130 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two more games complete the NHL card at 10:07 PM ET. The Carolina Hurricanes are on the road against the Vegas Golden Knights on TNT as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Washington Capitals travel to Anaheim to play the Ducks as a -180 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has nine games on national television. Providence plays at home against Xavier on FS1 at 6:30 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 154. Three more NCAAB games on national television tip-off at 7 PM ET. Alabama is at home against Auburn on ESPN2 as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 151. UConn hosts DePaul on the CBS Sports Network as a 17.5-point favorite with a total of 148.5. Pittsburgh plays at Notre Dame on ESPNU as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 142.5. Creighton plays at home against Georgetown on FS1 at 8:30 PM ET as an 18.5-point favorite with a total of 146. Three more NCAAB games on national television at 9 PM ET. TCU is at home against Texas on ESPN2 as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 149. Tulane visits East Carolina on ESPNU as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 153.5. Loyola-Chicago hosts Rhode Island on the CBS Sports Network as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 135. Utah State plays at UNLV on the CBS Sports Network at 11 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with a total of 147.5. Matchweek 25 in the English Premier League concludes with two matches. Arsenal plays at home against Everton on the USA Network at 2:45 PM ET as a -1.5 goal line favorite with an over/under of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Liverpool is at home against Wolverhampton at 3 PM ET as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. 

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The Surging Colorado Avalanche

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Feb 28, 2023

Don’t look now, but the Colorado Avalanche have taken their level of play to the next level since the All-Star break in the National Hockey League. The reigning Stanley Cup champions went into a Western Conference showdown with the Vegas Golden Knights on Monday looking to extend a five-game winning streak after a 4-1 win against Calgary on Saturday. That triumph came after a 5-1 win in Winnipeg on Friday. Colorado had a 7-1-2 record in their last ten games, and they had won twenty-seven of their last thirty-eight games at home after winning their previous game by three or more goals. That trend helped us gain confidence that the Avalanche would continue their winning streak against the bitter rivals, the Golden Knights, who eliminated them from the 2021 playoffs. Colorado had won nineteen of their last twenty-two games after winning their previous two games by three or more goals. The Avalanche had scored four or more goals in four straight games, and they were averaging 4.4 goals per game during their five-game winning streak. They were continuing to play with star defenseman Cole Makar, yet this team has been dealing with injuries all season. Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen are leading the way in the meantime during their current hot streak. MacKinnon had scored four goals and added six assists during this stretch, and Rantanen had added four goals and two assists. The Avalanche were thriving on the other end of the ice as well as they had held their last five opponents to 2.0 goals per game. Colorado had won forty-four of their last fifty-six games after playing a game where they did not allow more than one goal, and they had won fourteen of their last sixteen games after playing two straight games where they did not give up more than one goal. The Avalanche were using Alexandar Georgiev as their goaltender against Vegas. In his previous seven starts, he had a 2.79 goals-against average and a .920 save percentage. Colorado had beaten four straight teams with a winning record, and they had won twenty-nine of their last thirty-seven games against opponents winning 51-60% of their games. The icing on the cake for us was that the Avalanche had the opportunity tonight to avenge a 3-2 loss at home in Ball Arena to the Golden Knights on January 2nd. The Avalanche had won eighteen of their last twenty-six games when playing with revenge from an upset loss at home to their opponent. Vegas was averaging 3.3 goals per game, yet Colorado had beaten eleven of their last fourteen games in the second half of the season against opponents who are average 3.0 goals per game. The Avalanche rewarded our faith in them with a 3-0 shutout victory against the Golden Knights in their last game in the month of February. It was MacKinnon and Rantanen that continued to carry the team despite their injured list. Rantanen scored an unassisted goal in the first fourteen seconds of the game and then added a second goal at the 16:40 minute mark of the second period. MacKinnon scored an empty netter in the third period. Georgiev stopped all 31 of the shots he faced, and the Team won their NHL Western Conference Game of the Month. Colorado begins the month of March with 73 points, good for third place in the Central Division, two points behind the Dallas Stars in first place, and a point behind a Minnesota Wild team that was victorious on Tuesday. Yet the Avalanche have only played 58 games this season, two less than the Stars and three behind the Wild. The pathway is clear for the defending champions to seize the top seed in the Western Conference playoffs and eventually represent the conference in the Stanley Cup finals, especially if Makar can pass concussion protocols by the postseason. Good luck - TDG.

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NCAA Basketball System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Tuesday, Feb 28, 2023

The 2022-23 season is in its home stretch.  There's just six days left in the regular season, and several conferences have already commenced their Tournament schedule.  Throughout this week, schools will be honoring their Seniors in ceremonies before their final home game of the season.  In college basketball, the "Last Home Game" is often an emotional game, and it can be used as a handicapping tool to find an edge in a game.I have several Last Home Game systems that I use.  And I wanted to highlight one of them, here.When I consider how much importance to place on a team's final home game, one of my criteria is, "What's the team's home W/L record?"  After all, if a team is NOT a good home team, then does it really matter if it is playing its final home game of the season?  On the other hand, what if a team is undefeated at home?  Now, in that situation we may, indeed, be able to find some teams we DO want to bet on.So, using home win percentage as a starting point, let's first take a look at how NCAA teams do in their final home game if they're unbeaten at home.  And let's also establish a minimum number of home games played.  After all, if a team (for whatever reason) only played 4 home games during the season, we probably don't want to use that team in our data.  For our purposes, we're only going to consider teams that are playing at least their 10th home game of the season, and are undefeated at home up to that point.Since 1991, our teams playing their final home game that were unbeaten at home have gone 191-166-8 ATS.As a starting point, there's nothing horrible with 53.5%.  But we can improve our record by simply filtering the opponents, and only going against those with .500 (or better) SU/ATS records.  One of the reasons I like to go against good teams is that we want our undefeated at home team to be properly motivated.  With that additional criterion in place, our 191-166-8 ATS angle improves to 98-69-4 ATS, 58.6%.  Now, there's another criterion we can add to the mix which also will insure our home team will be motivated, and that's revenge.  When that factor is added, then our angle goes from 98-69-4 to 57-36-2 ATS!SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:  Play on any team in its final home game of the regular season, if it has an undefeated home record of 9-0 (or better), and is playing with revenge against an opponent with a .500 (or better) SU/ATS record.This upcoming week, our angle has one play.  It goes Saturday, March 4, and is on Nevada minus the points over UNLV.  Nevada is 14-0 at home this season, while UNLV has a W/L percentage of .607, and an ATS W/L percentage of .518.  And Nevada plays with revenge from a 68-62 defeat in Las Vegas, on January 28.There's also one additional motivational factor which makes this angle zoom from 57-36-2 to 9-1, 90% ATS.  And that's if our home team is off an upset loss.  And, as good fortune would have it, Nevada is also off an upset loss in its previous game, as it lost to Wyoming, 80-71, on Feb. 27.  There's no doubt the Wolfpack will be highly motivated in this Last Home Game.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie 

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Recapping Super Bowl 57: A High Scoring Game Was Destiny

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Feb 28, 2023

When the oddsmakers installed the over/under for Super Bowl 57 earlier this month at 49.5 in the evening after the NFC and AFC conference championship games were played, it seemed like that number was too low given the explosive potential of both the Philadelphia and Kansas City offenses. Yet the market only bet the number up to the 51.5-point range by kickoff two weeks later. That was music to our ears with our NFL Total of the Year committed to the over earlier in the week. We concluded that the prelude to Super Bowl 57 took place last year on October 3rd when the Chiefs traveled to Lincoln Financial Field to play the Eagles, and they came away with a 42-30 score as a 7-point favorite. More than sixteen months later, this Philadelphia team was much better which is why the oddsmakers installed them as a small favorite. That game was played early in Nick Sirianni’s head coaching career and before the decision was made to rely more on their rushing attack. Jalen Hurts had made significant strides in his development since that game as well. That was just his eighth start in the NFL, yet he completed 32 of 48 passes for 387 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. He ran the ball an additional eight times for 47 yards in that game. Hurts had made twenty-six more starts since that game and had developed into a more mature quarterback in the pocket. The Eagles rushing game and RPO packages had become more sophisticated since that time. Hurts completed 66.5% of his passes in the regular season for 3701 yards with 22 touchdown passes and an 8.0 yards per attempt average. The offseason addition of A.J. Brown unlocked the explosive potential for the Philadelphia passing game with him presenting a very challenging skill set for opposing defenses that were already worried about speedster DeVonta Smith at wide receiver. Hurts added 760 rushing yards in the regular season with another 13 touchdowns. Behind the best offensive line in the league, Sirianni became very comfortable going for it on fourth-and-short with Hurts nearly unstoppable on quarterback sneaks. Despite his shoulder injury, Hurts had run the ball 20 times for 73 in the Eagles’ two playoff games this season with two touchdowns and six first downs. With the two weeks of rest for the Super Bowl, we thought he should be a big threat with his legs against Kansas City. If Philadelphia was able to put up 30 points in early October against the Chiefs who had Tryann Mathieu at the time, they should be able to at least match that number now against a Kansas City team with three rookies in their secondary. The Eagles had scored 29 or more points ten times this season, and they have scored 31 or more points in three of their last five games despite the Hurts injury. Philadelphia came into this game on a three-game winning streak, and they have played six of their last eight games over the number when they have won three or more games in a row. Patrick Mahomes was his usual self in that October game against the Eagles last year. He completed 24 of 30 passes for 278 yards with five touchdown passes in leading his team to 42 points. Tyreek Hill was on that team, yet Mahomes has demonstrated that he can still operate the Chiefs’ offense at a high level even without him. Kansas City averaged 28.7 points per game this year going into the Super Bowl, and they scored 27 or more points twelve times. Injuries at wide receiver held the Chiefs offense back in the AFC championship game as Kadarius Toney, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Mecole Hardman all got knocked out of that game. Hardman has been declared out for the Super Bowl, yet head coach Andy Reid thought both Toney and Smith-Schuster would be ready to play in the Super Bowl. The key for Kansas City may be with their running game with rookie Isaih Pacheco and the now-activated Clyde Edwards-Helaire who missed multiple games with injuries. Philadelphia allows their opponents to average 4.6 yards per carry, and the Chiefs had played ten of their last twelve games in the second half of the season over the number against opponents who allow 4.5 or more yards per carry. Kansas City’s ability to run the football should open things up for Travis Kelce and the Chiefs’ wide receivers. The Eagles had a great secondary that holds their opponents to 5.4 yards per pass attempt. Yet Reid had two weeks to prepare schemes against this Philadelphia defense, and Kansas City has played six of their last seven games over the number against opponents who do not allow more than 5.7 yards per passing attempt. The Chiefs had played eight of their last thirteen games over the number when the oddsmakers install them as a favorite of up to three points or as an underdog of up to three points. The oddsmakers expected a close game, and a tight contest lends itself to both teams scoring points back and forth against each other with the offenses having the upper hand. We concluded that expecting 72 combined points again may be too much to ask from the game between these two teams sixteen months ago, yet a combined score that reaches the 50s was highly likely. In hindsight, our caution on expecting another game that had more than 70 combined points was too conservative. Philadelphia dominated time of possession in the first half and went into the locker room at halftime with a 24-14 lead. Yet when the Chiefs scored a defensive touchdown when Nick Bolton picked up a fumble and returned it for a touchdown midway in the second quarter, the game seemed well on its way to finishing comfortably over the number. Ten combined points were scored in the third quarter which put the over within one more scoring play, and when Kadarius Toney scored on a five-yard touchdown pass from Patrick Mahomes at the 12:04 minute mark of the fourth quarter, the over was in hand. With another 18 combined points scored in Kansas City’s 38-35 victory, the over covered easily. In hindsight, our confidence in Hurts was more than justified. He completed 27 of 38 passes for 307 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions. Brown and Smith combined for 13 receptions for 196 recovering yards. Hurts added another 70 yards on the ground with three more rushing touchdowns. Sirianni kept the offense on the field for three fourth-and-one plays in the game, and they converted all three to keep their drives alive. The Eagles finished the season by converting 27 fourth-and-one plays which led the league. Mahomes completed 21 of 27 passes for only 182 yards but three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Smith-Schuster caught seven balls for 53 yards and Toney caught the go-ahead touchdown pass in the fourth quarter. Pacheco ran the ball 15 times for 76 yards with a touchdown. In the end, it was a satisfying conclusion to a successful NFL season for the Team. Good luck - TDG.

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NASCAR: Pennzoil 400 Betting Primer

by AAA Sports

Tuesday, Feb 28, 2023

The Nascar season has begun. We have two races in the rearview mirror. Daytona was unpredictable, with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. taking the checkered flag. This past Sunday we saw Kyle Busch run through the field for his first victory for Richard Childress Racing. Nascar continues its west coast swing with a visit to Las Vegas Speedway for the Pennzoil 400. This is the first race of two held at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Chevrolet has dominated early in the season with two wins. Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile, cookie-cutter track, with 20-degree banking. The Pennzoil 400 will be a 400-mile race, which is 267 laps. Chevrolet has won the last two Pennzoil 400 races with Alex Bowman winning last year, and Kyle Larson the victor in 2021. Las Vegas Motor Speedway has hosted Nascar since 1996. The prize is a championship belt, the only non-trophy across the Cup Series. As we’re waiting for lines to drop, we’ll look at a few drivers who have a chance to win the belt. Kyle Busch won last week in Fontana and looks to keep momentum at Las Vegas. Las Vegas is Busch’s home track. Kyle Busch will be driving in all three series this weekend. The best way to be better at a track is by getting laps in, and Busch will be doing plenty of that. In his career, Busch has won three of the last four truck races at Las Vegas. Busch has two Xfinity wins at Las Vegas (2016 and 2019), as well as a Cup victory in 2009. Kyle Busch has a Top 5 in 5 of his last 7 Pennzoil 400 races. In 23 races here, Busch has an average finish of 10.8 with one win and 14 Top 10s. It’s a rare feat to see a driver sweep all three races, but that’s what he’ll be looking to do this weekend. The move to RCR has brought life back to Busch and he’s looking to prove doubters wrong as he looks for his second win of the season. Busch has a Top 10 in both races this season and I expect him to contend for another win on Sunday.Joey Logano has had plenty of success on this track. Logano won the playoff race here last season. That win put Logano in the final four, and eventually a Cup championship. Logano is the active leader along with Brad Keselowski at Las Vegas Motor Speedway with three wins. Logano saw back-to-back wins in the Pennzoil 400 with a victory in 2019 and 2020. Logano finished second at Daytona, and tenth last week. Logano is always a threat to win a race and Las Vegas should be no different. In the last 10 races at Las Vegas, Logano has an average finish of 5.6. In those 10 races, he has one finish outside of the Top 10, which was a 14th-place finish in 2020. Look for Logano to keep the pressure on with his aggressive, yet smart driving. He’d love to get his first victory early in the season and looks primed for a championship push this season.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/28/2023

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Feb 28, 2023

The Tuesday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, and NCAAB. The National Basketball Association has ten games on its docket. The Memphis Grizzlies host the Los Angeles Lakers on TNT at 7:30 PM ET as an 8.5-point favorite, with the total set at 233.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Three more NBA games tip off at 7:40 PM ET. The Milwaukee Bucks visit Brooklyn to play the Nets as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 227.5. The Atlanta Hawks play at home against the Washington Wizards as a 6-point favorite with a total of 237.5. The Toronto Raptors are at home against the Chicago Bulls as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 220. Two NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Sacramento Kings travel to Oklahoma City to play the Thunder as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 238. The Denver Nuggets play in Houston against the Rockets as a 10.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 232. The Dallas Mavericks are at home against the Indiana Pacers at 8:40 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 236.5. The Utah Jazz host the San Antonio Spurs at 9:10 PM ET as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 235.5. The Los Angeles Clippers play at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves on TNT at 10 PM ET as a 6-point favorite with a total of 233. The Golden State Warriors are at home against the Portland Trail Blazers at 10:10 PM ET as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 236. The National Hockey League has ten games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. The Ottawa Senators host the Detroit Red Wings as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning play at home against the Florida Panthers as a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Buffalo Sabres are at home against the Columbus Blue Jackets at 7:37 PM ET as a -210 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Four NHL games start at 8:07 PM ET. The Winnipeg Jets host the Los Angeles Kings as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Minnesota Wild play at home against the New York Islanders as a -135 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Pittsburgh Penguins travel to Nashville to play the Predators as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Seattle Kraken are in St. Louis to play the Blues as a -150 money line road favorite with a total of 6. Two NHL games begin at 9:07 PM ET. The Boston Bruins visit Calgary to play the Flames as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Arizona Coyotes are at home against the Chicago Blackhawks as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The San Jose Sharks host the Montreal Canadiens at 10:37 PM ET as a -165 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has 12 games on national television. Marquette plays at Butler on FS1 at 6:30 PM ET as an 8-point road favorite with a total of 142. Four more NCAAB games tip off at 7 PM ET. Indiana plays at home against Iowa on ESPN2 as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 154.5. Duke is home against North Carolina State on ESPN as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 145. Wake Forest hosts Boston College on ESPNU as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 146.5. VCU plays at home against Saint Louis on the CBS Sports Network as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 142.5. Villanova is at Seton Hall on FS1 at 8:30 PM ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 130.5. Four more NCAAB games begin at 9 PM ET. Kansas hosts Texas Tech on ESPN as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 145. Tennessee plays at home against Arkansas on ESPN2 as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 134. Boise State is at home against San Diego State on the CBS Sports Network as a 2-point favorite with a total of 134. Texas A&M travels to Mississippi on ESPNU as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 136. New Mexico hosts Fresno State on FS1 at 10:30 PM ET as an 8-point favorite with a total of 141.5. San Jose State plays at home against  Colorado State on the CBS Sports Network at 11 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5.

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If the NFL Has Pivoted to Offense, Why Was Scoring Down in '22-23?

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, Feb 27, 2023

It is considered conventional wisdom in many circles that the National Football desires and has been successful in making changes to the game to generate higher-scoring games. Perhaps the higher-ups of the NFL want higher scores, but that does not mean they are getting higher scores. "The league is pivoting to offense" mantra continues despite the average points-per-game mark dropping to 21.9 Points-Per-Game for the '22-23 NFL season. Last year was the second-straight season that scoring is down from its historic 24.8 Points-Per-Game high in 2020 (the year without fans in the stands because of the COVID outbreak, interestingly).The 21.9 Points-Per-Game average in 2022-23 was the lowest NFL scoring average since 2017 -- and the second-lowest since 2009. Perhaps the drop in scoring was due to more rushing attempts. The more teams run the football, the more time that burns off the play clock. Since midway through last season, the Philadelphia Eagles demonstrated that teams could be highly successful on offense with an attack that leaned heavily on the ground game. Other teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Atlanta Falcons, Cleveland Browns, and Washington Commanders amped up their rushing attacks. The Baltimore Ravens have been a run-first team with quarterback Lamar Jackson for years. Adherents of the notion that trends in the NFL are cyclical identify the strategic advantage teams seize with run-heavy offensive systems in an environment where more and more teams are deploying 4-2-5 defensive schemes with two linebackers and five defensive backs as their base defense to thwart pass-heavy offenses that often use three or more wide receivers. Rushing attempts were up to 27.3 runs per game last year which was the highest since 2011. The low was in 2019 when teams averaged 25.9 runs per game. But it is difficult to conclude that scoring is down by almost a field per game from 2020 simply because teams are trading off one or two passes per game for a rushing attempt. The passing game was down to 33.3 attempts per game in '22-23. That was the lowest since 2009. The league average for pass attempts peaked in '15-16 and '16-17 with 35.7 passes per game.Average offensive plays are down by roughly one to two per game. But does that really explain a 1.1 Points-Per-Game drop from last year -- and 2.0 Points-Per-Game from the 20-21 season? Something else is going on -- and the numbers contradict the lazy “league is moving to offense" trope.I do not know what the answer is. However, I do know that claims that the league is “making rule changes to the help offenses” are not precise. The recent changes in the NFL to protect quarterbacks and wide receivers in the name of player safety would seem to make it easier for teams to execute in the passing game. But does more passing necessarily lead to more scoring? More passing plays trade off with rushing plays. Or perhaps what NFL teams have realized is that their efficiency on offense — and their effectiveness overall when taking into account the benefits of running the ball to keep the clock moving and afford more time for their defense to rest — requires running the ball more often?With the Eagles reaching — and almost winning — the Super Bowl, these trends to running the ball are likely to continue into next season, despite what you may continue to hear from those touting the “scoring is up” false assumption. Best of luck — Frank.      

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Anatomy of a 35-1 Winner: Handicapping Chris Kirk at the PGA Honda Classic

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, Feb 27, 2023

Chris Kirk went into Sunday of the PGA Honda Classic with a two-stroke lead — but after bogeying a Par 4 at the 13th green, he fell behind rookie Eric Cole who was simultaneously registering a birdie at the 14th hole. Trailing by one stroke, Kirk then returned the favor to Cole by gaining two strokes by getting a birdie on the 16th hole while Cole was bogeying the 17th hole. After a nice drive on the 18th hole with a one-stroke lead on that Par 5, Kirk then began the draw on his second shot approach shot far too right with his ball landing about two inches shy of safe grass and bouncing back into the ocean to incur a penalty stroke. Cole looked to have the tournament in hand — but his approach shot was too hot and he found himself in the back bunker. Cole settled for par — and Kirk was able to salvage a bogey to force a playoff. After being forced to lay up after an errant tee shot that landed behind a tree, Kirk then pulled off a magnificent third shot putting him about six inches from the hole. Cole missed his long birdie putt which allowed Kirk to claim the championship with his easy tap-in. And Kirk rewarded Hollywood Sports’ PGA Tour regulars with the win at 35-1 odds. That was our second PGA Tour win in the last five weeks after cashing with Max Homa’s victory at the Farmers Insurance Open at 22-1 odds last month. We now have seven 1st place winners in our last 19 PGA Tour events. Now those are not 19 consecutive weeks on the PGA Tour. I do take the fall from handicapping golf after the PGA Tour Championship at the East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta. It takes me three or so hours to research and handicap each PGA Tour event — and that is time I desperately need for football in the fall. Besides, most of the professional golfers take the fall schedule with a grain of salt without any of the majors on the schedule — so it is a good fit to forego this event during the height of the football season. There are only so many hours in the day. When the PGA Tour picks up again in early January, I begin handicapping golf again which is a nice fit with football winding down to just the NFL playoffs. It was very nice to get our second winner under our belts for 2023 in the eighth tournament of the new year — and it continues a good run we were on to close out the 2021-2022 PGA Tour season. Kirk was too good to pass up on with the PGA Tour moving to Florida. While he opened at 25-1 odds at DraftKings on Monday after finishing in 7th place at this tournament last year, the market pushed his odds up to 35-1 by Wednesday to my delight. The Honda Classic at the PGA National Resort The Champion Course in Palm Springs is a Par 70 consisting of 7125 yards. The professionals were challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 67 bunkers. Tight fairways, three-inch Bermuda grass rough, and the propensity for high winds added to the intrigue this week. Only two Par 5s are on the course and the Par 3s are notoriously difficult. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The average score in 2022 at this event was 71.341.I liked that Kirk would have a chip on his shoulder after being in second place after Rounds One, Two, and Three before taking a step back in the final round on Sunday and settling for that 7th place. He finished tied for 21st place here in 2021 — so he likes this course. Said Kirk about his preference for courses that feature Bermuda grass greens: "If I know the greens are real quick and I can just kind of let it go, that seems to be when I hit my best putts and I seem to be pretty decent at reading Bermuda greens, so it's a combination of a number of things, but yeah, it's just what I'm most comfortable on." Kirk ranked 5th in the field this week in Adjusted Score when playing on courses with Bermuda greens over the last two years — and he ranks 15th in the field in over-performance on courses with Bermuda greens versus his baseline results over the last two years. Kirk opened 2023 with a 3rd place finish at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i before following that up with a tie for 3rd place at The American Express — but he had some extra to prove last week after missing the cut in his most recent event at the PGA WM Phoenix Open two weeks prior. Kirk is one of the better ball-strikers on the tour. He ranked 20th on the tour for 2021-22 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and four of the last five winners of this tournament also led the field in that metric. Kirk also ranked fifth in the field in his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained on Par 4 holes which will be important this week given the two fewer Par 5s. I always recommend three golfers per golf Betting Report. Kirk was our Top Overlay Bet representing the golfer who offered the most value relative to the odds — circumstances that got even better when his odds dropped from 25-1 to 35-1. Our Best Bet was on Shane Lowry who was in contention going into Sunday but settled for a tie for 5th place. Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten initial favorites was on Jhonnatan Vegas who finished tied for 21st place after registering a six-under round on Sunday. For the three golfers I endorse for a golf tournament, I also recommend a head-to-head prop bet as an avenue to take more advantage of the golfers I have identified that have value for that event. We went a winning 2-1 with those props with Kirk and Vegas winning their head-to-head tournament matchups but Lowry losing his Round One head-to-head prop with Billy Horschel who came out on Thursday of the week strong before taking a step or two back by shooting three-over par the rest of the way and finishing in a tie for 42nd place. Regulars now have over 53 weeks of free rolls from previous PGA Tour winnings since last summer -- meaning they could invest their X into our Best Bet, Top Overlay, and Long Shot each week for the next 53 events and still keep a profit. That'll work (again). Best of luck — Frank.

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