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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/01/2022

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Feb 01, 2022

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.Seven games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Detroit plays at home against New Orleans at 7:10 PM ET at a 1.5-point favorite (all odds from DraftKings). Two more games begin at 7:40 PM ET. Toronto is at home against Miami as a 2-point favorite. Milwaukee hosts Washington at TNT as an 11.5-point favorite. Two games start at 8:10 PM ET. Chicago plays at home against Orlando as a 10.5-point favorite. Minnesota is at home against Denver as a 2.5-point favorite. Golden State visits San Antonio at 8:40 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite. Phoenix hosts Brooklyn in the nightcap on TNT at 10:10 PM ET as a 7-point favorite. The National Hockey League has 11 games on its slate. The puck drops at 7:08 PM ET for six games. Boston hosts Seattle as a -255 money line favorite with a total set at 6. Tampa Bay plays at home against San Jose as a -300 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Toronto visits New Jersey as a -200 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Florida plays in New York against the Rangers as a -145 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Winnipeg travels to Philadelphia as a -150 money line favorite with a total of 6. Pittsburgh hosts Washington as a -155 money line favorite with a total of 6. Two NHL games start at 7:38 PM ET. The New York Islanders are at home against Ottawa as a -265 money line favorite with an over/under of 6, Nashville plays at home against Vancouver as a -205 money line favorite with a total of 6. Calgary visits Dallas at 8:38 PM ET as a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Colorado plays at home against Arizona at 9:08 PM ET as a -575 money line favorite with a total of 6.5. Vegas hosts Buffalo at 10:08 PM ET as a -400 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Eleven games are on national television in college basketball. Connecticut plays at home against Creighton on FS1 as a 10-point favorite with a total of 134.5. Four more games begin at 7 PM ET. Kansas visits Iowa State on ESPN as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 139. Michigan State plays at Maryland on ESPN2 as a 4.5-point road favorite. St. Bonaventure is at home against Davidson as a 3-point favorite with a total of 138.5. Mississippi State hosts South Carolina on ESPN as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 139.5. Seton Hall travels to Georgetown on FSI at 8:30 PM ET as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 152.5. Three more games on national television start at 9 PM ET. Auburn hosts Alabama as a 7-point favorite with a total of 135.5. Wichita State is at home against Tulsa on ESPNU as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5. Texas Tech hosts Texas on ESPN2 as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 123.Two NCAAB games conclude the college basketball card. UNLV is at home against Nevada on FS1 at 10:30 PM ET. Fresno State visits San Jose City as an 11.5-point road favorite an 11.5-point road favorite with a total of 127.5.

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The Los Angeles Clippers Scoring (and Over) Surge (without Leonard and George)

by Team Del Genio

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

Despite (or because of) playing without the injured Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, the Los Angeles Clippers are playing higher-scoring games lately. Going into the last day of January, their last five games had seen 219. 2 combined points scored, with the Clippers averaging 111.6 points per game. That scoring average is almost six points above their 105.9 ppg average this season. The Clippers continue to play undermanned without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, yet head coach Tyronn Lue is getting a surprising contribution from Amir Coffey. He is averaging 17.4 points per game, 4.8 rebounds per game, and 2.4 assists per game in his last five games. Los Angeles lost the Pacers in Indiana on Monday, 122-116, but don’t blame the offensive effort of the Clippers. They made 45 of their 96 shots from the field for a 47% field goal percentage. Coffey led the way with 27 points on 9 of 14 shooting including him making five of his nine shots from the 3-point line. The former Minnesota Golden Gopher added four assists and five rebounds. Leonard has been out since the playoffs last spring with his knee injury. There is some talk that he could return for a potential playoff run. George is dealing with an elbow injury that has kept him out since December 22nd. While both players offer critical scoring for the Clippers, their absence on the defensive end of the court has probably had a bigger impact on this team.This continued offensive proficiency for the Los Angeles Clippers without George and Leonard is resulting in more overs.  Defensive lapses are an area of emphasis to monitor after the Pacers made 53% of their shots, including 13 of 29 (48%) of their shots from the 3-point line. Los Angeles has played five of their last seven games over the number when playing their third game in five days on the road. The Clippers did not cover the 1-point they were laying as a road favorite on Monday, and they have still played six of the last eight games over the number after a point spread win. Los Angeles entered the game coming off a 115-90 upset victory against Charlotte getting 6.5-points from the oddsmakers on Sunday. The Clippers have played five of their last six games over the number after an upset win on the road as an underdog. They have played five of their last six games over the total after playing at least three in a row on the road. Their eight-game road trip ended with their 6-point loss at Indiana on Monday, but more road games are quickly on the horizon for this team. After a two-game homestand this week against the Los Angeles Lakers and the Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles will embark on a three-day road swing in the southwest against Memphis before two straight games against the Mavericks in Dallas. With George and Leonard not expected to return anytime soon, perhaps these impending road games will offer profitable betting opportunities with the over. Good luck - TDG.

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NBA Teams To Watch

by Will Rogers

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

NBA Teams To WatchThere’s not that much time left between now and the NBA All-Star Break. But expect some movement in the two conferences. Here’s what to watch for.EastThe top six is currently: Miami, Chicago, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Milwaukee and Brooklyn. The two preseason favorites being fifth and sixth is a little surprising. Milwaukee has dealt with some injuries. Brooklyn hasn’t had its big three of Durant/Irving/Harden together except for a couple of games. Irving can’t play at home as long as he remains unvaccinated. The Nets are 5-19-1 ATS at the Barclays Center. Speaking of surprises, how about Cleveland? Oddsmakers have started to catch up though. The Cavs are just 5-12-1 ATS in the last 18 games. Still, I can see them ending up finishing second to Miami. The Cavs, a young team, will care more about seeding. If there’s a team that might drop a few spots, I think it might be Chicago. They’ve got the lowest point differential of the top six and are just +2.3 per 100 possessions, which is below Boston. Looking at the next four, who would be involved in the play-in round, you’ve got: Charlotte, Toronto, Boston and Atlanta. The latter two (Boston, Atlanta) have more potential to move up, especially the Celtics, who could even break into the top six. Boston has the East’s second best defensive efficiency rating. It’s interesting how Charlotte is first in the league in points scored and last in the conference in points allowed. Atlanta also has some defensive issues, but recently won eight in a row.Teams on the outside looking in are: Washington, New York, Indiana, Detroit & Orlando. The bottom two have no shot. Indiana is 2-10 in games decided by three points or less, so luck has not been on their side. Washington has really started to fall off. New York was a top six team last year and has predictably regressed. I think the gap between these teams and the four who currently occupy spots 7-10 will only widen. WestThe top six is currently: Phoenix, Golden State, Memphis, Utah, Denver and Dallas. Utah has really fallen off. They’ve lost 11 of 13 and key reserve Joe Ingles is out for the year with an injury. So they could be in some trouble. Memphis has been insanely hot, winning 26 of 34. I still think Golden State will overtake Phoenix. Denver and Dallas should remain in the top six. That means teams like the Lakers and Clippers seem resigned to play-in round. The Lakers’ championship window appears to be closed. The Clippers have a lot of big comeback wins and no Paul George or Kawhi Leonard. The LA teams aren’t what they used to be. I think Minnesota is better. The 10th spot is really going to be up for grabs. Portland currently occupies it, but the numbers suggest San Antonio has been better. I can see 45+ losses for whomever finishes 10th and it will probably be one and done in the play-in round. New Orleans, Sacramento, Houston and Oklahoma City just don’t have it this year. At least you can make money betting on the Thunder, who are 30-17 ATS (2nd best in the league). The Spurs have gone Over in 70% of their home games, but go Under 67% of the time on the road. Dallas has gone Under 75% of the time at home. Minnesota has gone Over 73% of the time on the road. 

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The Defensive (and Under) Juggernaut Rising at Washington State

by Team Del Genio

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

In our NCAA-B Sunday Night Vegas O/U Jackpot after the NFL Conference Championship Games, we noted that the Washington State Cougars had played four straight and eight of their last nine games under the total. The Cougars went into that game holding their opponents to 39.9% shooting, ranking in the top-30 in the nation. They held the Utes to a 39.1% field goal percentage on Wednesday in a 71-54 victory. That final score finished below the 139 total installed by the oddsmakers, and they had played eight of their last ten games under the number after playing an under in their last game. Washington State had played six straight unders after a win. They were set to complete a four-game homestand where they had played seven straight unders. They were holding their opponents to 63.8 points per game on 40.6% shooting when playing at home in Pullam. Yet the Cougars were scoring only 69.6 points per game on 41.4% shooting in their previous five games, a bit below their 74.0 ppg average on 42.2% shooting. They had played eleven of their last twelve games under the number when the oddsmakers install them as the favorite. Washington’s State reliable defense made a statement against Colorado that night. They held the Buffaloes to just 18 first-half points to race out to a 21-point lead. When the final buzzer sounded, the Cougars had held Colorado to a 29% field goal percentage on 16 of 56 shooting. Washington State overachieved expectations on the offensive end of the court by shooting 49% from the field and making 12 of their 28 shots from 3-point land. Yet the combined 113 points scored in the Cougars victory fell well below the 132 point total that most oddsmakers settled on by tip-off.Head coach Kyle Smith is quietly building a defensive juggernaut with this Washington State team. His Cougars finished 24th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency last season. That was the program’s best defensive effort since 2009. Smith mixes man-to-man defenses with 2-3 matchup zone schemes. In Year 3 at Washington State, Smith has his team ranked 22nd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have held their last three opponents to 57, 54, and 43 points. With a 12-7 record and a 5-3 mark in the Pac-12, the Cougars appear destined to be a bubble team for the next six weeks before the NCAA tournament. Their victory against Colorado may have been their best win for their resume. Yet they end the month of January ranked 35th in the nation according to the analytics at kenpom. They have held 11 of their 13 opponents to no more than 64 points. With upcoming games against Arizona, UCLA, and USC, Smith has the opportunity to test the defensive chops of his team against three teams with legitimate final four aspirations. Those showdowns may offer some intriguing under opportunities, pending what the oddsmakers and the market have to say about the over/under number. Good luck - TDG.

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Fixing NFL Overtime

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

Like clockwork, if a team wins by the opening touchdown in the overtime period in the NFL playoffs, calls will begin to change the procedures enacted to resolve these games that remain tied after regulation time. Critics (often holding losing bet tickets) will cry about the injustice of the system and the arbitrariness of the game decided by a coin flip. We do not bat an eyebrow watchman tired referees hurriedly deploy eye-ball tests when they guestimate where the ball was downed before Big Tech purifies the process with close-up camera angles. But, sure, let’s start complaining about the overtime system impacting the integrity of the game only when the process finally literally embraces literal coin flips to impact the outcome rather than just the de-facto coin-flip external actions that litter the game before that point. The overtime in the NFL playoffs used to be resolved with a full 15-minute extra period. This approach was abandoned because games would take too long. Player health and safety get invoked as a rationale, but if you are buying that, I have some oceanside property here in Las Vegas I can offer you at a really good deal. The essential problem remains how to develop a mechanism to resolve tied games that is fair to both teams but accomplishes this goal quickly. The college system has teams alternate possessions starting at the 25-yard line. But because those games were taking too long still to determine a winner, a system was implemented that had the teams embark on rotation two-point conversion attempts after the first two rounds at the 25-yard line. For many observers (including myself), that feels too much like the skills competition attempts to resolve games in the regular season of the NHL. Embracing a longer overtime session like the NHL does in the Stanley Cup playoffs would likely put the winner at a competitive disadvantage in their next game against an opponent who did not play in as long a game. Most new proposals to the overtime rules simply kick the can on the inevitable problem inherent in the advantage of winning the coin flip for overtime. The rules can be changed to allow for both teams to touch the ball once — then anything goes — but the team that got the ball first and scored a touchdown still has the edge of getting the ball first after the back-and-forth. If one is committed to eliminating a full period of additional play, then the dilemma of infinite regression regarding the fairness of “who gets the ball first” is inevitable. However, there may be a way out of this conundrum. Here is the Hollywood Sports’ proposal. First, ditch the overtime coin flip and award the team with the most yards from scrimmage with choice of ball/field direction. Better yet, include special teams' return yards to the mix on top of offensive yards from scrimmage so that all three phases of the game impact this tie-breaker determinant. The second tie-breaker can be fewer offensive plays (higher yards-per-play). This addresses the concern about the randomness of the coin-flip with the first option choice being rewarded based on a skills-based objective. Second, then let both teams get one offensive possession. While the "both teams get the ball once" overtime reform seems to just kick the can on the "but the other QB never gets the chance to respond" dilemma, perhaps the game-theory intangibles with the 2-point option neutralizes this concern in practice.Hypothetically, let’s look at the Buffalo Bills-Kansas City overtime classic that ended when Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a winning touchdown on the opening overtime drive after Kansas City won the arbitrary coin flip. Let’s then assume Josh Allen leads the Bills to a touchdown on their possession.Do the Bills then go for 2 to win the game, right then and there? Knowing that possibility, does Kansas City go for 2 after their initial Travis Kelce TD to pre-empt this Buffalo counter? More game-defining plays of makes/misses might nullify the concern of overtime taking too long. This scenario makes the strategic choice to defer getting the ball first (as is the conventional wisdom in college football) since there is heightened value in knowing what you need to win the game. If this game-theory stratagem with the removal of the arbitrary coin-flip for a determinant that is results-based, then I think we are getting somewhere to improve an, albeit, inherently flawed process. In an ideal world, the NFL playoffs would be able to transcend the physical limitations of their human being players and embrace the overtime process of the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs before hitting a magic reset button for the winning team to be fully rested for their next game. But, alas …Best of luck — Frank.

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On Heartbreak, and Appreciating Josh Allen

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

Even in defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs, I was very much impressed with Josh Allen, who has convinced me to ignore the Bills' 0-6 record in one-possession games (after that loss) moving forward next season. I know the Buffalo Bills and their Bills’ Mafia fans thought this was the year for their team after losing in Kansas City last year by a 38-24 score. But there is a difference between disappointment and universe-shattering heartbreak. The Bad Boy Detroit Pistons thought they learned how to win after hardships but they had to discover what true heartbreak felt like in 1987 when Isiah Thomas inbounded the ball back to Larry Bird in the Eastern Conference Finals to spoil what would have likely been a decisive road win in the Garden. Thomas and the Pistons responded by winning titles in '89 and '90 after losing the NBA Finals in Game 7 in '88In appreciating of Allen, I quote the Buffalo Bills' section of Football Outsiders 2018 almanac as an illustration of what "the smartest guys in the analytics room" had spectacularly wrong back then: “(Brandon) Beane wouldn’t get into how his quarterback board looked in a post-draft press conference — a glaring tell that Allen wasn’t the No. 1 player at the position for him—but offered the boilerplate “he can make all the throws” nonsense that you’d have to believe to invest this pick in a player like Allen … The problem is that Allen isn’t even an accurate deep arm right now. He can throw a deep ball like Grandma can quit smoking any time she wants to … This is the blind leading the blind … It’s a shame that this offensive blueprint is so irresponsible because it’s erasing the good work that the Bills have done on defense and special teams … The Bills spent the middle of the summer filing a patent for the phrase “Respect the Process.” But they are asking us to respect their process when it’s conclusively not a good process … This process is just following conventional quarterback scouting wisdom and building to win in the 1980s … Ironically, snarky look-at-me rhetoric and potshots at establishment folks like Simms goes a long way in the world of "just trust the data." That’s some good stuff from an “expert” who remains a regular at the football analytics him whose data ranked the Dallas Cowboys as the top team in the NFL entering this postseason (before losing unceremoniously at home to San Francisco).The issue is not getting a few things wrong (we all do). But it was always an option to have reserved skepticism about Allen coming out of Wyoming. Wait for the data to develop. Nope, the above was another drop in the overreach of the Hot Take Industrial Complex. And I am a long-time customer who likes many of the regular contributors at Football Outsiders when I conduct my foundational work in July and August for all 32 NFL teams. But some of the writers advance some terrible arguments worthy of fading (and FO remains worse than a drunk monkey in the prediction game).So, congratulations to Allen (and the Bills) despite their brutal loss to the Chiefs this season. And those in the analytics community might boost their credibility if they just owned up to their sensational failures, rather than punching up versus dudes like Phil Simms with devastatingly more accomplishments.Best of luck — Frank.

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Betting Soccer Totals

by Power Sports

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

With all of the big European leagues on break the final week of January, now is a good time for some soccer discussion. Let’s talk about betting soccer totals.I delved into xG (expected goals) and xGA (expected goals allowed) to find which clubs you may want to consider betting Over, or Under, down the home stretch of the 2021/22 campaign.For beginners, xG is the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics of that shot and the events leading up to it while xGA is just the opposite, measuring the number of goals a side should have conceded. Bet Over Wolverhampton (Premier League) - In 21 matches played, the Wolves have scored 19 goals and conceded only 16 goals. That total number of goals (35) is - by far - the fewest in the entire Premier League. The next fewest would be Burnley’s 43 and they’ve played three fewer fixtures (matches). Leicester City has played 20 fixtures, one fewer than the Wolves, and there have been a total of 72 goals scored when they’re on the pitch! So the Under has been your friend when playing Wolverhampton thus far. But what about moving forward? xGA says they SHOULD have conceded 26 times already. Don’t be surprised if this side starts conceding more down the stretch. Athletic Bilbao (La Liga) - On the flip side, La Liga’s Athletic Club (Bilbao) has scored only 21 goals, but their number of expected goals (xG) is 31. Coming up so woefully short of the xG total partially explains why Athletic Club is languishing down in ninth place when they probably should be higher in the table. That, and the fact they’ve been “kings of the draw” in La Liga, sharing the points a league-high 10 times. This side is actually fifth in xPts (expected points) and I anticipate they’ll be challenging for one of the European places by season’s end. If they do move up, expect them to start scoring more goals.  Wolfsburg (Bundesliga) - Wolfsburg started the season by winning their first four matches. Since then, they’ve won only twice and lost 11 of 16 times. Tied with last place Greuther Furth (who they play this week) for fewest goals in the league (17), Wolfsburg is moving shockingly close to the relegation zone in the German top flight. But they’ve been unlucky when it comes to scoring goals. Their xG total is 27. So like Athletic Club, look for this side to start scoring more. Incredibly, Wolfsburg has been blanked six of its last seven league matches. Sunday is a must win and they’ll probably put some goals up. Bet Under Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga) - BVB has scored 52 times this Bundesliga season, but that’s a “lucky” total as xG has them only scoring 40. With Erling Haaland’s future very much in question here, regression in the goal scoring department is coming. Haaland, who had to be taken off injured in the 63rd minute against Hoffenheim, has scored 16 goals in just 14 matches. Lazio (Serie A) - No side in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues has a wider gap between actual goals scored and xG than Serie A’s Lazio. I Biancocelesti have scored 46 times this season, third most in Serie A, putting them right with the big boys. But they have also exceeded their xG total (31.60) by almost 15. Therefore, expect fewer goals from them moving forward, thus likely depriving them of a top six finish. Last time out, it was a 0-0 draw with Atalanta (whose matches are almost always high-scoring).  Levante (La Liga) - The side at the foot of the La Liga table (in last place) is a little different than the other two sides I’m telling you to bet Under. Levante, in my view, is quite unlucky to be facing relegation for next season. The main culprit for this is the number of goals they’ve conceded, 43, which is the most in the league. But that number is well above what xGA says (31.83). If Levante has any hope of not dropping to the Segunda Division, it must shore up the back end. As far as betting them Under, they’ve scored the fifth fewest number of goals in La Liga.  So that seems like a solid bet, moving forward. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 01/31/2022

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

The Monday sports card features NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.Eight games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Three games tip-off the card at 7:10 PM ET. Cleveland hosts New Orleans as a 9.5-point favorite (all odds from DraftKings). Indiana plays at home against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 1.5-point favorite. Philadelphia is at home against Memphis as a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 219. Three NBA games start at 7:40 PM ET. Boston hosts Miami as a 3.5-point favorite. New York is at home against Sacramento as a 5.5-point favorite. Atlanta plays at home against Toronto as a 2.5-point favorite. Two games conclude the NBA card at 8:10 PM ET. Golden State visits Houston as a 10.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 230. Portland plays at Oklahoma City as a 3-point road favorite. The National Hockey League has five games on its slate. Florida travels to Columbus at 7:08 PM ET as a -225 money line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Four more games drop the puck at 7:38 PM ET. Toronto plays at home against New Jersey as a -340 money line favorite with an over/under of 6. Chicago is at home against Vancouver as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 5.5. Edmonton visits Ottawa as a -200 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Detroit hosts Anaheim as a -115 money line favorite with a total of 6.Eight games are on national television in college basketball. Three begin at 7 PM ET. Boston University is at home against Holy Cross on the CBS Sports Network as a 16.5-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5. Wofford travels to Mercer on ESPNU as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 138. Duke plays at Notre Dame in the opening game of a doubleheader on ESPN. The Blue Devils won their fifth game in their last six with a 74-65 victory at Louisville as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. They improved their record to 17-3. The Fighting Irish won their 10th game in their 11th with their 69-65 win against Virginia as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. Notre Dame has a 14-6 record. Duke is a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 143.5. Colorado State visits Wyoming on FS1 at 8 PM ET as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 146. Three NCAAB games tip-off at 9 PM ET. Oklahoma is at home against TCU on ESPN2 as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 127.5. Norfolk State plays at North Carolina-Central on ESPNU as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 136.5. Baylor hosts West Virginia in the nightcap on ESPN. The Bears won their third straight game with a 74-49 victory against Kansas State as a 13-point favorite on Tuesday. They raised their record to 18-2 with the win. The Mountaineers lost their fourth straight game after their 72-62 upset defeat to Oklahoma as a 2.5-point favorite on Wednesday. West Virginia's record fell to 13-6 with the setback. Baylor is a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. San Diego State plays at home against New Mexico on FS1 at 10 PM ET as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 135.5. 

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Heading Into The All-Star Break (East Conf)

by Larry Ness

Monday, Jan 31, 2022

LeBron James and Kevin Durant will again be captains of the two teams in this year's All-Star Game, which is being held Feb 20 in Cleveland. LBJ has now been a captain in each of the five years the NBA has used the current system to pick its teams (anyone like the format?). For Durant, he's a captain for a second straight year. Both players 'earned' the honor by finishing with more fan votes than anyone else in their respective conferences. James has now made 18 All-Star teams, tying Kobe Bryant for second place all time behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (19). The NBA also announced the starters for its annual midseason showcase last Thursday night. The selection for the starters was based on fan ballots for 50% of the vote, with a media panel and current players each making up 25%. The real surprise was the selection of Golden State's Andrew Wiggins. He made a very late decision prior to the start of the season to get vaccinated (shunning the Kyrie route) and one imagines, he's pretty happy he did. Here's some interesting information, based on Elias Sports Bureau research. Wiggins is just the THIRD first-time All-Star to be named a starter in his eighth season or later (Bob Boozer in his eighth season in 1967-68 and Kyle Lowry in his ninth season in 2014-15 are the others). He is the 40th different No. 1 overall pick in the modern draft era (since 1966) to make an All-Star team in his career, but the FIRST of those not to make it until his eighth season or later.Noting that the NBA's All Star game isn't being held until Feb 20, it's not exactly the mid-point of the season. As January closes (Monday) and February dawns on Tuesday, most teams have played right around 50 games of what is an 82-game schedule. This is the first of a two-part article (Heading into the All Star Break), starting with the Eastern Conference. I'll get to the Western Conference next Monday, Feb 7.Let me begin with some NBA conference history. The NBA's first year was the 1949-50 season and George Mikan's Minneapolis Lakers won FOUR of the first NBA titles (1950, '52, '53 and '54). The 1952 title was won by the Rochester Royals, another Western Conference team. However, it was TOTAL domination by the Eastern Conference from 1555 through !970, as an Eastern Conference team won the NBA title 15 times in a 16-season span. The lone Western Conference winner? The 1958 St Louis Hawks of Bob Petit, who beat the Boston Celtics in a seven-games series. As most NBA fans  likely know, Bill Russell's Celtics won 10 of those 15 titles (in his 12-year playing career). However, over the next 20 seasons (1971-1990), it was a 50-50 split, as each conference produced 10 NBA champions. That led into the "MJ era,' in which Michael and the Bulls won SIX of eight titles (Hakeem's Rockets won the other two). With MJ leaving the Bulls, Western Conference teams won 10 of the next 13 titles, from 1999 through 2011. The Lakers won five titles, the Spurs four and the Mavs won that franchise's only NBA title in 2011. These last 10 seasons, it's back to a 50-50 split, with each conference winning five titles apiece.This gets me to what the Eastern Conference standings look like on the morning of January 31. The Heat sit atop the East at 32-18, but just barely. The Bulls are 31-18, the 76ers are 30-19, the Cavs are 30-20, the Bucks (defending champs) are 31-21 and the Nets are 29-20. Even an Ohio U drop out like me, can see that the East's top-six teams (Seeds 1 thru 6 automatically qualify for the postseason, while seeds 7-10 enter a 'play-in' round to determine the 7th and 8th seeds) are separated by only 2 1/2-games! The 28-23 Hornets are No. 7, the 24-23 Raptors are No. 8, the 26-25 Celtics are No. 9 (how the mighty have fallen) and the 24-25 Hawks are No. 10, after a SEVEN-game winning streak. Currently, "on-the-outside-looking-in" are the 23-26 Wizards and 23-27 Knicks. We can 'put a pin' in the seasons of 12-37 Pistons and 11-40 Magic, plus the 18-33 Pacers are about to join Detroit and Orlando in the 'hopeless cause' category. Milwaukee and Brooklyn were the conference favorites at the start of the season, with Philadelphia right behind them, but dealing with the 'pouting' Ben Simmons. As noted, it's a logjam at the top, so NOTHING is even close to being decided. However, let me close by giving out some 'props' to the Heat, Bulls and Cavs, who not only own the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 4 seeds in the East, but also own the top-3 ATS records, as well. It's my opinion that Miami's Erik Spoelstra doesn't get his due when the discussion of the NBA's best coaches comes up. He led the 'South Beach 3' to four NBA Finals (2-2) and in 2020, shocked the NBA with his team's run to the Finals, before losing 4-2 to the Lakers. The Heat have dealt with numerous injuries and COVID absences, but despite all that, they are 32-18 (.640) up from last season's 40-32 (556) record. As for the Bulls, they were coming off a 31-41 record last season, missing the postseason for the FOURTH consecutive year. However, they have reinvented themselves as a threat in the Eastern Conference behind Zach LaVine and the free agent signing of DeMar DeRozan. They also picked up center Nikola Vucevic from Orlando last season (where his talents were wasted) plus added Lonzo Ball as a free agent prior to this season. There were 'whispers' that the 32-year-old DeMar DeRozan was on the downside of his career, but he's been one of the best players in the NBA so far this season, averaging 26.5-5.0-4.9 (note: he was named as a starter for the East in the All Star game).The biggest surprise of all is the Cleveland Cavs. Since LBJ 'jumped ship' for the second time, this time 'Going Hollywood' after the 2017-18 season, the Cavs entered the current season 60-159 (.274) over the previous three seasons. The Cavs 30-20 (.600) record this season is even more amazing when one takes into account that they lost their best player, Collin Sexton (16.0 PPG) to a left knee meniscus tear in mid-November and then veteran PG Ricky Rubio (13.1 & 6.6 APG) to an ACL tear in his left knee in late-December. One last thing for you sports bettors. The Cavs are 30-18-2 ATS, the Bulls 28-20-1 ATS and the Heat 29-21 ATS, making them the three most-profitable teams in the East. Next Monday, join me for a look at the Western Conference. Spoiler Alert. 'King James' and his minions are not exactly dominating things.Good luck...Larry 

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NFL Conference Championship Games Since 1980: A Point Spread Review

by Al McMordie

Sunday, Jan 30, 2022

There have been 82 NFL Conference Championship games played since the 1980-81 season.  Let's take a look at the data, from a "Vegas" perspective.Home Teams:  46-36 ATS, including 39-29 ATS as Favorites, 7-6 ATS as Underdogs, 0-1 ATS as PKRoad Teams:  36-46 ATS, including 6-7 ATS as Favorites, 29-39 ATS as Underdogs, 1-0 ATS as PKUnderdogs:  36-45 ATSFavorites:  45-36 ATSDouble Digit Favorites:  3-8 ATSDouble Digit Underdogs:  8-3 ATSRevengers:  30-40 ATS, including 5-8 ATS in Division games.  Favored Revengers 12-10 ATS; Underdog Revengers 17-30 ATS; PK'em Revengers 1-0 ATSOff ATS Loss (vs. Foe Not Off ATS Loss):  16-12 ATS, including 9-7 ATS as Favorite; 7-5 ATS as Underdog; 9-9 ATS at Home; 7-3 ATS on RoadOff Double Digit Win (vs. Foe Not Off Double-Digit Win):  20-20 ATS, including 15-15 ATS Home; 5-5 ATS Away; 16-15 ATS as Favorite; 3-5 ATS as Underdog; 1-0 ATS as PKOff Upset Win (vs. Foe Not Off Upset Win):  17-20 ATS, including 1-0 ATS at Home; 16-20 ATS Away; 3-1 ATS as Favorite; 14-19 ATS as UnderdogOvers:  44-35-3 Unders: 35-44-3Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 01/30/2022

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Jan 30, 2022

The Sunday sports card features NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAAB action.The playoffs in the National Football League on Conference Championship Sunday begin in the AFC with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Cincinnati Bengals on CBS at 3:05 PM ET. The Chiefs reached the AFC championship game with their 42-36 win in overtime against Buffalo as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Bengals upset the Titans in Tennessee, 19-16, as a 4-point underdog on Saturday. Kansas City is a 7-point favorite with the total set at 54.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Los Angeles Rams play at home against the San Francisco 49ers on Fox at 6:40 PM ET. The Rams reached the NFC conference championship game with a 30-27 upset victory in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. The 49ers upset the Packers in Green Bay, 13-10, as a 6-point underdog on Saturday. Los Angeles is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 45.5. Eight games are on the docket in the National Basketball Association. Two games tip-off the card at 1:10 PM ET. The Los Angeles Lakers travel to Atlanta. Charlotte plays at home against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 5-point favorite. Chicago is at home against Portland at 3:40 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 228.5. Cleveland visits Detroit at 6:10 PM ET as a 7-point road favorite.Two NBA games begin at 7:10 PM ET. Milwaukee hosts Denver as a 7-point favorite. Dallas plays at Orlando as a 5.5-point road favorite. Two more games conclude the NBA card at 8:10 PM ET. Minnesota is at home against Utah as a 1-point favorite. Phoenix plays at home against San Antonio as a 12.5-point favorite. The National Hockey League has seven games on its slate. Two games drop the puck at 1:08 PM ET. The New York Rangers host Seattle as a -185 money line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Pittsburgh is at home against Los Angeles as a -200 money line favorite with a total of 6. Carolina plays at home against San Jose at 5:08 PM ET as a -280 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.Two games in the NHL start at 7:08 PM ET. Boston visits Dallas as a -120 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Columbus plays at Montreal as a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Minnesota is at New York to play the Islanders at 7:38 PM ET as a -130 money line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Colorado hosts Buffalo at 8:08 PM ET as a -425 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5.Nine games are on national television in college basketball. Three of these games begin at noon ET. Purdue plays at home against Ohio State on CBS as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 148. Cincinnati travels to East Carolina on ESPNU as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 137. George Washington plays at home against Fordham on the USA Network as a 1-point favorite with a total of 132. Providence is at home against Marquette on FS1 at 12:30 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 138. Two NCAAB games on national television tip-off at 2 PM ET. Loyola-Chicago plays at Drake on ESPN2 as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 131. George Mason visits Massachusetts on the USA Network as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 148.5. Two more college basketball games start at 6 PM ET. Loyola-Maryland is at Bucknell on the CBS Sports Network. New Orleans plays at McNeese State on ESPNU. Washington State hosts Colorado on FS1 at 10 PM ET as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 131. 

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BIG XII Hoops Risers and Fallers

by Nelly's Sports

Saturday, Jan 29, 2022

BIG XII HOOPS RISERS AND FALLERS The Big XII has been one of the toughest and deepest conferences in college basketball in recent years and contains the defending national champion. The Big XII has had a final four team in four of the past five tournaments and several teams have the credentials to make a big run this season. As February approaches, here are three teams likely to climb and three teams that could fall from its current placement in the standings.  BIG XII RISERS OKLAHOMA (3-5): The Sooners have had a difficult start to conference play and three of the team’s five losses have come against Baylor and Kansas. Oklahoma didn’t look out of place in any of those games and while it has been an expected transition season for Porter Moser, the shooting numbers are excellent, and this is a top 20 defense nationally. The sooners will face highly ranked Auburn this weekend before a pair of winnable games in league play. There are still several difficult games remaining for Oklahoma, but this group is likely better than its current record, sitting with two overtime losses and with numbers that could improve down the stretch.  IOWA STATE (3-5): T. J. Otzelberger is a prime Coach of the Year candidate with Iowa State 15-5 after he inherited a team that finished 2-22 last season under Steve Prohm. There were several high-quality wins in the non-conference season but in Big XII play Iowa State has struggled with five losses already. The wins have been quality results however and they have already lost to the top two teams in the conference with a five-point loss to Baylor and a one-point loss to Kansas. Two games each with Kansas State and West Virginia remain in the Big XII path and this has been a top 10 defense nationally as the Cyclones will be tough to pull away from.  OKLAHOMA STATE (3-5): The Cowboys have a win at Baylor this season for a result that commands a lot of respect and the past two Big XII losses came by five on the road while allowing only 56 points, and by three in overtime. They still have three games remaining against the bottom two teams in the conference and this is an elite defensive team for Mike Boynton with some of the best numbers in the conference. Bryce Williams has missed the past two losses for Oklahoma State with ankle injury and his eventual return should provide a boost for the Cowboys to climb to at least a .500 finish in league play.  BIG XII FALLERS BAYLOR (6-2): Casual fans will assume Baylor is on a similar trajectory to last season but this group lacks the great backcourt play of last season and the current injury for James Akinjo could lead to some inconsistency in the coming weeks. Baylor’s two conference losses both came at home and there are several high-quality defensive teams in the conference that can stall the Baylor offense. While Baylor has a top seven grade in efficiency on both sides of the ball nationally, they are not #1 in the Big XII in either, while currently #4 on defense. The non-conference schedule proved to be incredibly weak for the Bears overall and the 6-2 Big XII start has already included half of the wins coming against TCU, West Virginia, and Kansas State. Baylor is a serious threat to win the conference again but a few more losses are likely on the way.  TEXAS (5-3): Chris Beard has taken Texas to 15-5 in his first season since moving up from Texas Tech. The defensive numbers are excellent, but Texas played the nation’s 354th ranked non-conference schedule to pad the numbers. The 5-3 start has not featured a win against any of the top three teams in the Big XII yet as Texas has not played Baylor, Kansas, or Texas Tech yet, meaning six of the team’s final ten conference games will be against that elite trio. Needless to say, several losses for the Longhorns are ahead and this group could possibly fall to the middle of the pack in the conference standings.  TCU (3-3): Most power ratings call TCU the worst team in the conference, yet TCU is in fifth place in the current standings with a .500 record through an abbreviated early-season schedule. TCU has some of its best remaining opportunities in the next two weeks, but the late season schedule is brutally difficult as they will play Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, and Kansas five times in six games starting in late February. Six Big XII road games remain for TCU and seven games vs. top 20 caliber teams are still ahead with TCU posting zero such wins on its current 13-4 resume. In Big XII play TCU is last in offensive efficiency, turnovers, and free throws as the Horned Frogs could crash to the bottom of the league by early March. 

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