NCAA Tournament System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Tuesday, Mar 12, 2024
March Madness has officially arrived, and the power conferences have their tournaments this week.  Great situations always abound.  And one of the situations that I particularly like results from the schedule. 

There are always rematches in the conference tournaments between teams that played at the end of the regular season, and then meet again in their very next game, at the start of the tourney.  I've always liked to focus on the teams that lost the meeting at season's end because their opponent might be a tad too overconfident after just winning a few days before.  But I don't just take any revenge-minded team.  Instead, I like to play on underdogs that were blown out by more than 10 points in that previous game.  Dating back 34 seasons, these teams have gone 55-38-2 ATS (59.1%).  Indeed, we had a play this afternoon (which I also released to my clients) on West Virginia +9.5 over Cincinnati.  Just three days ago, the Mountaineers were massacred by the Bearcats, 92-56, as an 11-point road underdog.  However, WVU almost turned the tables on Cincy when it mattered, and narrowly lost the tournament game (after leading by 16 in the second half), 90-85, as a huge underdog.

There will be three more games from this system on Wednesday:  California +1.5 over Stanford, Fresno St. +5.5 over Wyoming, and Middle Tennessee St. +11 over Louisiana Tech.

The Bears lost by 22 at Stanford, 80-58, last Thursday; the Bulldogs were wiped out by 39 points, 86-47, at home vs. Wyoming, this past Saturday; and the Blue Raiders were also routed on Saturday, 84-70, at Louisiana Tech.

Look for these underdogs to bark loudly tomorrow.

Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie

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