For the 15th straight summer, I invested time researching each FBS college football team to serve as the foundation for my college football handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from reading and studying multiple sources. Each FBS team now takes about 45 minutes to an hour of preparation time. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure.ALABAMA: It was always going to be a tall task for first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer to seamlessly keep the Crimson Tide as a perennial top-five team in the country. Losing over 30 of Nick Saban’s recruits after his surprise announcement that he was retiring made the task even more difficult. And as I argued last year in my deep dive into this team, Saban’s impact schematically on the defensive side of the football should not be underestimated. While he occasionally got bested by the opposing offensive coaches or players, he was far more often than not successful in taking away the best offensive option from his opponents (much like Bill Belichick with the New England Patriots). For a moment last season, when Alabama started the season 4-0 with a signature victory at home against Georgia, it did look like perhaps we had to reconsider. But the Crimson Tide only won five of their final nine games with four upset losses down the stretch, including not appetizing losses at Vanderbilt, Oklahoma, and then a seven-win Michigan team in the ReliaQuest Bowl despite being the favorite by at least two touchdowns in all three of those games. Their 9-4 campaign was the first time that this football team did not win at least 10 games since 2007. Critics can point to the offense. In their first ten games, they scored 39.5 Points-Per-Game, generated 6.8 Yards-Per-Play, turned the ball over in only 1.7% of their plays, and averaged 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. But in their final three games, they only scored 14.7 PPG, generated 4.8 YPP, turned the ball over in 5.1% of their plays, and averaged just 6.0 YPA per dropback. The “excuse” is that Jalen Milroe did not fit DeBoer’s preferred offense — and now that the Seattle Seahawks let offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb go after one season, the offensive braintrust that got Washington to the national championship two years ago. But Grubb was not great in his one year in the NFL — how much of his previous success was knowing what DeBoer wanted to accomplish in that partnership, going back to their previous stint at Indiana? Even more troubling for the Tide, the DeBoer-Grubb partnership for the Huskies and Hoosiers was a pass-happy offense — and that may not be the formula for success in Tuscaloosa, especially given the defensive reputation they cemented with Saban running the program. The canary in the coal mine is that Alabama running backs averaged only 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry last season, ranking 83rd in the FBS — and that was despite enjoying one of the best offensive lines in the country. Another canary is that former five-star recruit Justice Haynes transferred to Michigan — definitely a program that is not abandoning running the football — after his freshman season last year. It’s one thing to beat Oregon and then Texas for a surprise appearance in the national championship game (by 21 points) as a pass-happy offense, but it is quite another to compete weekly with future NFLers on both sides of the line of scrimmage in the rugged SEC. DeBoer’s offense is designed from Air Raid principles — and those approaches have simply not had long-term success in the SEC (or the Big Ten, when assessing the elite two power-four conferences). Struggling to run the ball puts a heavier burden on the defense — and the margins get thin when playing the best teams in the country. The good news for defensive coordinator Kane Wommack is that 13 of 19 players who logged 200 or more snaps are back this season, including several who bypassed entering the NFL draft. His defense “only” lost three to the NFL — not bad, after replacing six players to the NFL in each of the previous two seasons when it was Saban's defense. Statistically, Alabama’s defense ranked in the top 20 in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and Opponent Big Plays Allowed. Their 17 interceptions were the most since 2019. But another canary in the coal mine is that their 25 sacks were the fewest since 2013. The Crimson Tide’s dominance during Saban’s tenure started with their incredible depth on the defensive line, where it was mostly a feeder program to the NFL. If that is gone, so is Alabama’s dominance from the Saban era. GEORGIA: The new college football environment of NIL and the transfer portal has not hit many programs as hard as the Bulldogs. And it shows up most on the line of scrimmage. Head coach Kirby Smart no longer has a seemingly endless supply of blue-chippers ready and waiting to step in if there are injuries (or holes) on the offensive or defensive line. The offensive line was the weak link for this squad last year, with injuries playing a role. The Bulldogs did win the SEC championship game in overtime against Texas by a 22-19 score despite a season-ending injury to starting quarterback Carson Beck. But Georgia then lost to Notre Dame in the quarterfinals of the college football playoffs by a 23-10 score. Now Smart must adapt to the usual cavalry of players leaving the program to play on Sundays. This year, the Bulldogs saw 14 players drafted into the NFL, including seven on defense. That group must replace three players who got drafted in the first round of the NFL draft: defensive end Mykel Williams, linebacker Jalon Walker, and free safety Malaki Starks. The secondary and inside linebacker groups look stout, yet there are depth concerns at outside linebacker and on the defensive line, which makes the margin of error thinner when it comes to developing the next generation of future NFL talent. Only three starters are back on defense. On the other side of the ball, four starters are back. But Beck decided to transfer for a lucrative NIL deal at Miami (FL), so the offense will be in the hands of junior Gunner Stockton, who completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards in the second half of the SEC championship game against the Longhorns and threw for 234 yards in the loss against the Fighting Irish. He brings more of a rushing threat than Beck did, but it remains a question if he can be a true QB1 for title contender, winning games in late December and January. Even if the Bulldogs have taken a step back, their floor remains incredibly high. Using the metrics by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Georgia ranked sixth in the nation in SP+, their lowest mark since 2020. Their ranking of 10th in SP+ on offense was the worst result since 2020, and their defensive SP+ of 9th was the lowest since 2018. That’s a pretty high floor — and Smart has clearly elevated himself to the top of the class of his peers when it comes to game management and big game preparation. Almost half the roster consists of freshmen or redshirt freshmen, so this group may be poised to make a deep run if (and when) they make the playoffs again. NAVY: The Midshipmen enjoyed their first winning season in five years with a 10-3 campaign. Navy opened the season by winning their first six games before splitting their next six contests — but they ended the year on a high note by beating Oklahoma in the Armed Forces Bowl by a 21-20 score. The defense has always been respectable since Brian Newbury became head coach for the 2023 season. Last year, Navy ranked 34th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 22.2 Points-Per-Game. But the transformation of this program was the offense finally finding life again after failing to score more than 21.9 PPG or rank better than 104th in the nation in scoring offense. Newbury struck gold by hiring Mercer head coach Drew Cronic to update his offense. He installed his “millennial” version of the old school Wing-T formation that emphasizes misdirections from the run or pass by deploying a triple option formation with spread principles. Senior quarterback Blake Horvath returns after passing for 1353 yards with 13 touchdown passes and adding 1246 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground. While this program is unlikely to do much in the transfer portal as a service academy, Newbury does have the advantage of not having to worry too much about players getting lured by NIL money to go elsewhere. Thirteen starters are back this season, including every skill position player on offense. But red flags exist, such as their benefitting from a +10 net turnover margin or that they only outgained their American Athletic Conference rivals by +1.3 net Yards-Per-Game despite posting a 6-2 conference record.NORTH TEXAS: The Mean Green have failed to end the season with a winning record since 2018. They have lost seven bowl games in a row after their 30-28 loss to Texas State in the First Responder Bowl that left them with a 6-7 record for the season. The third-year head coach should once again oversee an outstanding offense. The former Incarnate Word head coach Eric Morris’ run-first Air Raid scheme ranked third in the nation by generating 488.8 total Yards-Per-Game. He lost another quarterback in the transfer portal when senior Chandler Morris transferred to Virginia in the offseason. Backup quarterback Drew Mestemaker passed for 398 yards in the bowl game. He will compete with Cam Ward’s backup at Miami (FL) last year, Reese Poffenbarger, who passed for almost 6000 yards at Albany before transferring up to the FCS level. It’s the other side of the ball that is holding the Mean Green back. North Texas surrendered 460.5 total YPG, which resulted in their opponents scoring 34.2 Points-Per-Game, ranking 127th and 118th in the FBS. The Mean Green have not ranked inside the top-100 in Defensive SP+ using the metrics of ESPN’s Bill Connelly in the last 11 seasons. Morris tapped Sam Houston’s 30-year-old defensive coordinator, Skyler Cassity, to run his defense — and seven of the players from that unit joined Cassity in the move to Denton in the transfer portal. The Bearkats ranked 45th in Defensive SP+, so it is likely that the talent will be much better on that side of the ball. OKLAHOMA: Guess who does not hate the transfer portal now? Prima donna head coaches on the hot seat, that’s who! After being very vocal about Deion Sanders’ use of the transfer portal before his first season in the Big 12 for Colorado, Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables has fully renounced his trolling about “culture” by adding the most new players ever in his tenure with the Sooners — especially on the offensive side of the ball, where 14 players were brought in. Well, who could blame him after Oklahoma’s 6-7 campaign was his second losing season in the last three seasons. Fear of getting fired will do strange things to people. On the plus side, it was the Sooners’ best performance on defense since the former Clemson defensive coordinator took over as head coach for the 2022-23 season. They held their opponents to -87 net Yards-Per-Game below their season average, which was the sixth-best mark in the nation. But the offense was a disaster under first-year offensive coordinator Seth Littrell as they ranked 113th in the nation by generating 331.0 total YPG. The Sooners lost six of their eight games in their debut in the SEC — and the problems started with their defensive line, which simply had not been upgraded to deal with top-tier defensive lines. The 50 sacks Oklahoma surrendered were tied for the most in the nation. Venables threw up a Hail Mary by sacking Littrell and hiring Washington State’s 29-year-old offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle to fix his offense. Soon after, Venables was able to complete this two-step when Cougars’ quarterback John Mateer joined the Sooners in the transfer portal and reunited with Arbuckle for the third straight season. Ahh, smell the culture! Mateer could be a very nice pick up for them — the dual-threat passed for 3319 yards with 29 touchdowns and added 1032 non-sack rushing yards with another 15 touchdowns. He has moxie and leadership skills — but the SEC is a dramatic uptick in competition. Venables also brought in California running back Jayden Ott, who ran for 1300 yards two years ago before an injury-riddled campaign last year. Venables did lose defensive coordinator Zac Alley, who took the same position at West Virginia (and to get out of Venables’ shadow). Perhaps exhibiting some rare self-awareness, Venables is taking over the play-calling duties in this critical year for his continued leadership of the program. He is a very good defensive coordinator. But adding play-calling duties to his list of responsibilities will challenge him in other areas, especially his game management decisions, which have been shaky in the past. PITTSBURGH: The Panthers started last season by going 7-0 with the offense thriving under new offensive coordinator Kade Bell’s up-tempo spread offense. Led by former Alabama transfer Eli Holstein at quarterback and running back Desmond Reid, who joined Bell in the move to Pittsburgh from Western Carolina, Pitt was scoring 41.8 Points-Per-Game in those initial seven games. But Holstein began to struggle and then got injured, along with several players on the offensive line. The Panthers lost their final six games, culminating in a 48-46 loss to Toledo in six overtimes in the Gameabove Sports Bowl. They only scored 19.2 PPG in their final five games. Seven starters are back on offense, including Holstein and Reid, who was a second-team All-American last season. The defense returns seven starters as well, headlined by All-American linebacker Kyle Louis. But the defense took another step back last year by surrendering 378.2 total YPG, which resulted in 28.4 PPG, ranking 81st and 92nd in the nation. It remains to be seen if modernizing the offense with an up-tempo attack is a good fit with head coach Pat Narduzzi’s defensive background. In four of their final six games, they gave up 48, 37, 34, and 48 points. The team's motto this year is “unfinished business,” but the Pitt administration may decide to stop doing business with Narduzzi if he cannot get his defense back on track. TEXAS A&M: The Aggies enjoyed their best season in the last three years with an 8-5 campaign, despite a 35-31 loss to USC in the Las Vegas Bowl. It was an encouraging initial step under first-year head coach Mike Elko. He found his quarterback in the future when Marcel Reed was brilliant in the second half in their big win against LSU. The dual-threat returns for his redshirt sophomore season after leading all freshmen quarterbacks in the SEC in QBR. He still has things to work on fundamentally with his footwork and his delivery. He lost his top five targets in the passing game. However, he is backed by an offensive line that returns its top six players — and the five returning seniors average 6’6 in height and 333 lbs in weight. The defense has seven starters back from the group that ranked 35th in the nation by giving up only 22.2 Points-Per-Game. But this unit was too boom-or-bust. Texas A&M ranked eighth in the nation with a stuff rate at or behind the line of scrimmage in 39% of their opponent’s snaps. But they also ranked 119th in the FBS in yards allowed per opponent successful play. Most of that damage was in the secondary. The Aggies limited their opponents to the fourth-lowest completion rate in the nation — but they also ranked 121st in yards allowed per successful drop back. Four starters return in their defensive backfield, including two starters who were just freshmen and a sophomore last year. Elko is taking over the play-calling duties on defense — and that should help limit the big plays allowed by the former Notre Dame and Texas A&M defensive coordinator who parlayed that experience to become the head coach at Duke before returning to College Station last year. TEXAS TECH: The Red Raiders are going to be one of the most challenging teams to handicap this season after head coach JoeyMcGuire’s heavy commitment into the transfer portal. They invested plenty of money to buy size on their offensive line to simply solve what had been a problem for the last few seasons. On defense, McGuire turned to Houston defensive coordinator Shiel Wood to fix a group that allowed 460.2 total Yards-Per-Game and 34.8 Yards-Per-Game, ranking 126th and 121st in the nation. Four transfers were brought in on the defensive line and another five portal players came in for their secondary.UTAH STATE: The Aggies had made three straight bowl games under head coach Blake Anderson — but their season turned south last year when he was suddenly fired in the summer for Title IX sexual misconduct allegations. Defensive coordinator Nick Howell took over as the interim head coach, but Utah State stumbled to a 4-8 record. They missed playing in a bowl game for just the second time in the last 13 seasons. The administration made a big splash in the offseason by hiring New Mexico head coach Bronco Mendenhall to lead their program. Mendenhall had great success in the state of Utah as the head coach at BYU for 11 seasons before moving to Virginia in 2019. His three-year stint there did not go as well — but he still has a career 140-88 record as a head coach with 14 bowl appearances in his 18 seasons. Only four starters are back, so Mendenhall was aggressive in the transfer portal by adding almost 30 new players, along with another eight junior college transfers, although not many of those players have major FBS experience. WASHINGTON STATE: The Cougars won eight of their first nine games before dropping their final four games, including three straight upset losses that ended in their 52-35 upset loss against Syracuse in the Holiday Bowl. Then, head coach Jake Dickert bolted the program to take the head coaching job at Wake Forest, and eventually, more than 60 players followed his departure in the transfer portal. Washington State turned to 37-year-old Jimmy Rogers as their next head coach after leading South Dakota State to a 27-3 record in his three seasons there, including an FCS national championship in 2023. IO will be the Jackrabbits West for this team, as 11 assistant coaches and 16 players departed with him to join the new Cougars program. The Air Raid is a thing of the past for this team, with former North Dakota and then South Dakota State offensive coordinator Danny Freund implementing a run-first approach offensive attack. Former Bryant transfer Zevi Eckhaus inherits the offense after quarterback John Mateer transferred to Oklahoma after his breakout season. The defense has no returning starters after defensive tackle David Gusta transferred to Kentucky, linebacker Taariq Al-Uqdah transferred to Washington, and cornerback Ethan O’Connor transferred to Miami (FL). But Rogers is defensive-minded after previously serving as the South Dakota State defensive coordinator — and his DC from last season, Jesse Bobbitt, will run his defense. It will be interesting to see how a glorified FCS program moving up to the FBS level will do against mostly Mountain West Conference competition, a year before the new reconfigured Pac-12 conference returns. I will be cautious. Best of luck — Frank.
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