by Hollywood Sports
Tuesday, Dec 30, 2025Last Sunday night’s contest between the Chicago Bears and the San Francisco 49ers presented a conundrum regarding how to evaluate an over/under set in the low 50s. It was the highest number for Week 17.
I am a bit wary of falling into an “over trap” when one of the teams involved (San Francisco) comes off an impressive offensive display. The 49ers’ offense looked unstoppable against the Colts in a game particularly frustrating to me since I was on Indianapolis and the Under. I don’t want to be overreacting to recency bias.
The case supporting the Over for this Sunday night showdown was bolstered that in NFL games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, when the road team has a winning percentage in the 60-75% range, comes off a win, and is now facing a winning team, that game finished Over the Total in 26 of those last 34 (77%) circumstances. That empirical angle suggests that in expected high-scoring games, if the road is good and playing with momentum against another quality team, the scoring should go back and forth.
I got the 49ers’ game script all wrong last week, as I presumed Indianapolis would try to slow the game down with Jonathan Taylor running the ball. Instead, Philip Rivers defied time by passing for 277 yards. I wanted to see how Rivers would perform today against Jacksonville — and he only threw for 147 yards this afternoon. Perhaps Rivers' turning back time had more to do with the banged-up 49ers defense that is missing several key players, including Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.
I definitely need to raise the threshold of evidence of when I endorse Unders in Niners’ games under head coach Kyle Shanahan — especially against good teams. San Francisco has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. Additionally, the 49ers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in December.
In the 49ers' last 18 games at home when favored by -3 to -7 points, they have played 16 of those games Over the Total. With team trends like that demonstrating the personality of the Niners under Shanahan, it was tough for me to get off the Over in this spot.
Chicago’s improving rushing attack has helped their defense and contributed to their playing two straight Unders. After holding Cleveland scoreless in the first half two weeks ago, they went into halftime last week trailing by a 6-0 score to the Packers. But those strong defensive efforts trigger an empirical angle supporting the Over that has been 81% effective since 2016. The 49ers are scoring 37.0 Points-Per-Game in their last three games while putting up at least 26 points in each of those games — and in the last 31 games involving one team that has scored at least 25 points three straight games facing a team that has not allowed more than seven points in the first half in their last two games, 25 of those contests finished Over the Total.
The Chicago defense was surrendering 370.8 total Yards-Per-Game on the road, which was resulting in 29.0 PPG. In their 8 games on the road this season under head coach Ben Johnson, they have played 5 of those games Over the Total. And while the 49ers are allowing their opponents to generate 5.7 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams who give up 5.65 or more YPP.
It ended up being one of those games where the decision to the over seemed obvious almost immediately. The Bears scored on a 34-yard interception returned for a touchdown on the first play from scrimmage (and it becomes very hard for Unders to cash when a defensive touchdown is scored — it is even more difficult for Unders when a special teams touchdown is also scored, as with what happened in the Los Angeles Rams-Atlanta game for Monday Night Football that spoiled that Under).
But even without tight end George Kittle (a game-time decision kept him out because of a nagging ankle injury), an early in-game injury to left tackle Trent Williams could not slow down the 49ers, who then scored four touchdowns in the first half. With the halftime score giving San Francisco a 28-21 lead, the over was almost in already. It’s nice to get an easy one. The 49ers generated 496 yards and scored six touchdowns in their 42-38 victory. The Bears gained 440 yards themselves. And we won our 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month.
Best of luck — Frank.
I am a bit wary of falling into an “over trap” when one of the teams involved (San Francisco) comes off an impressive offensive display. The 49ers’ offense looked unstoppable against the Colts in a game particularly frustrating to me since I was on Indianapolis and the Under. I don’t want to be overreacting to recency bias.
The case supporting the Over for this Sunday night showdown was bolstered that in NFL games with the Total set at 49.5 or higher, when the road team has a winning percentage in the 60-75% range, comes off a win, and is now facing a winning team, that game finished Over the Total in 26 of those last 34 (77%) circumstances. That empirical angle suggests that in expected high-scoring games, if the road is good and playing with momentum against another quality team, the scoring should go back and forth.
I got the 49ers’ game script all wrong last week, as I presumed Indianapolis would try to slow the game down with Jonathan Taylor running the ball. Instead, Philip Rivers defied time by passing for 277 yards. I wanted to see how Rivers would perform today against Jacksonville — and he only threw for 147 yards this afternoon. Perhaps Rivers' turning back time had more to do with the banged-up 49ers defense that is missing several key players, including Nick Bosa and Fred Warner.
I definitely need to raise the threshold of evidence of when I endorse Unders in Niners’ games under head coach Kyle Shanahan — especially against good teams. San Francisco has played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage in the 60-75% range. Additionally, the 49ers have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after winning three or more games in a row. They have played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total in December.
In the 49ers' last 18 games at home when favored by -3 to -7 points, they have played 16 of those games Over the Total. With team trends like that demonstrating the personality of the Niners under Shanahan, it was tough for me to get off the Over in this spot.
Chicago’s improving rushing attack has helped their defense and contributed to their playing two straight Unders. After holding Cleveland scoreless in the first half two weeks ago, they went into halftime last week trailing by a 6-0 score to the Packers. But those strong defensive efforts trigger an empirical angle supporting the Over that has been 81% effective since 2016. The 49ers are scoring 37.0 Points-Per-Game in their last three games while putting up at least 26 points in each of those games — and in the last 31 games involving one team that has scored at least 25 points three straight games facing a team that has not allowed more than seven points in the first half in their last two games, 25 of those contests finished Over the Total.
The Chicago defense was surrendering 370.8 total Yards-Per-Game on the road, which was resulting in 29.0 PPG. In their 8 games on the road this season under head coach Ben Johnson, they have played 5 of those games Over the Total. And while the 49ers are allowing their opponents to generate 5.7 Yards-Per-Play, the Bears have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against teams who give up 5.65 or more YPP.
It ended up being one of those games where the decision to the over seemed obvious almost immediately. The Bears scored on a 34-yard interception returned for a touchdown on the first play from scrimmage (and it becomes very hard for Unders to cash when a defensive touchdown is scored — it is even more difficult for Unders when a special teams touchdown is also scored, as with what happened in the Los Angeles Rams-Atlanta game for Monday Night Football that spoiled that Under).
But even without tight end George Kittle (a game-time decision kept him out because of a nagging ankle injury), an early in-game injury to left tackle Trent Williams could not slow down the 49ers, who then scored four touchdowns in the first half. With the halftime score giving San Francisco a 28-21 lead, the over was almost in already. It’s nice to get an easy one. The 49ers generated 496 yards and scored six touchdowns in their 42-38 victory. The Bears gained 440 yards themselves. And we won our 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Total of the Month.
Best of luck — Frank.
