Ignoring Zig-Zag and Puck Luck: Backing the Vegas Golden Knights in their Stanley Cup Clinching 9-3 Victory
The Vegas Golden Knights took a 3-1 series lead in the Stanley Cup Finals with a 3-2 victory on the road against the Panthers on June 10th. With the series returning to the Las Vegas strip three days late for Game Six, many bettors were tempted to zig-zag by backing Florida. It is a simple and easy formula that sometimes has success, especially in playoff series between good teams who can win on the road. Other bettors continued to be amazed at the “puck luck” that the Golden Knights enjoyed. After the first two games of the series, Vegas was scoring on 12.5% of their shot attempts — a number far above the 8.4% percentage on average for previous Stanley Cup winners at five-on-five even strength. Their goaltenders had a save percentage of .944 in the postseason which was also outperforming previous Stanley Cup winners that had averaged a .930 save percentage. A popular hockey metric is labeled PDO (it’s not an acronym, it comes from the online handle of the person who originally defended the value of this metric in an online forum) — it is a simple addition of save percentage and goal-scoring percentage per shot. A PDO of 100 is the average. A simplistic view of PDO would presume that teams with PDOs above 100 were experiencing good luck while teams with PDOs below 100 were saddled with bad luck. But we should expect Wayne Gretzky and Connor McDavid to have higher goal-scoring percentages than the rest of the league. Vezina Trophy-winning goaltenders are going to have higher save percentages. But it is interesting to compare Stanley Cup contenders with past Stanley Cup champions. The 2011 Boston Bruins had registered the highest PDO in NHL history with a 104.8 in that postseason. Vegas was crushing that mark with a 106.9 PDO.If the Golden Knights were in the middle of a best-of-31 series with the Panthers, then perhaps fading them based on that historically high PDO would make sense. But in a next-game situation, expecting the proverbial Regression Gods to suddenly show up is likely an act guilty of the Gambler’s Fallacy. Just because the roulette wheel landed red ten times in a row, betting on black is not suddenly a better investment. From what I observed in the waning moments of Game Four, I saw Game Five as a great opportunity to invest heavily on Vegas to win that game and clinch the Stanley Cup championship despite their puck luck and the temptation of the zig-zag model. From the often maligned “eye test”, I saw a Florida team that seemed already beaten. The Panthers had gotten their first power play opportunity with 17 seconds left in game after Alex Pietrangelo drew a delay of game penalty by knocking the puck into the stands. With a six-on-four advantage with goalie Sergei Bobrovsky pulled Florida could not beat Golden Knights goalie Adin Hill in a furious fury as time expired. Frustrated, Brandon Montour of the Panthers skated a few feet forward to cheat shot Vegas’ Brayden McNabb with his back turned. His actions triggered a post-game melee that even Hill got involved with for a few moments before getting out of there. That event provided a synopsis of this series: Florida, the bully, now getting bullied (and out-maneuvered) by a season Golden Knights team. The Panthers' physical style had great success against Toronto and Carolina en route to their Eastern Conference Finals triumph. But this mentality along with the commitment to forechecking is standard operating procedure to play against for this Golden Knights team that has learned to engage and thrive with these tactics since their inaugural season in the Pacific Division. The Los Angeles Kings became the standard bearer for this approach a decade ago— and the San Jose Sharks adopted it. The Sharks head coach Peter DeBoer later became the coach for the Knights — and it was the DeBoer’s latest team the Dallas Stars that Vegas had to beat in the Western Conference Finals. The underlying metrics supported the Golden Knights’ dominance in this series. They registered 3.7 expected goals (xG) in Game Four while holding Florida to 2.49 xG. In their 3-2 overtime loss on the road in Game Three, they won the xG battle by a 3.71-2.9 margin. The only game that the Golden Knights lost the xG numbers was in Game Two by a narrow 2.84-2.65 margin. The scoreboard has Vegas taking that game by a 7-2 score (showing the limitations of xG as not the end-all, be-all). For the series, the Golden Knights are dominating Florida by a 14.85-10.82 xG margin. And now Matthew Tkachuk is hurt with a left shoulder that seems to be a by-product of the hit he took in Game Three. Despite trailing in the third period, he stayed on the bench for 10:41 straight minutes before going on the ice late in that game. He did not practice the day before and was listed as questionable to play. Even if he did play, he would not be 100%. His three overtime-winning goals had been critical for the Panthers to win all seven of their overtime games in these playoffs. Vegas was not the only team that had been the beneficiary of “puck luck.” Florida’s success in winning close games obscured the fact that they had actually been outscored this postseason. Was this a team that simply rode the hot goaltending of Bobrovsky? The Panthers will have resolve in Game Five with the confidence that they rallied from a 3-1 deficit to upset the President Trophy-winning Boston Bruins. But that was a divisional rivalry against a Bruins team playing with tons of pressure after their historic regular season. Florida did win last year’s President’s Trophy — but this is still a team that lacks deep playoff experience before now. This Golden Knights team had been building to this moment since their expansion season when they reached the Stanley Cup Finals before losing to Washington. They were underrated by the analytics and the oddsmakers entering the postseason given all the injuries they sustained during the regular season — most notably with Mark Stone missing most of the season. Before Jack Eichel arrived, he was the team’s best player. Now he anchors a third line away from the Eichel line that is thriving with Jonathan Marchessault. Vegas may have the best fourth line in the NHL. And the other forward line involves William Karlsson, the best offensive player on the 2016-17 squad that reached the Cup Finals — and who is perhaps the team’s best defensive forward (or second to Stone). Back at home, head coach Bruce Cassidy had the advantage of the last-line choice — so he could ensure Karlsson is always playing against Tkachuk who only scored once in the first two games in this series in Las Vegas. It was Karlsson that was critical for the Knights’ slowing down Connor McDavid in the Western Conference Semifinals against Edmonton. Vegas outscored the Panthers by a whopping 12 to 4 margin in the first two games at home in this series. Hill continued to exceed expectations — but the unsung heroes are his supporting cast willing to put their bodies on the line to block shots. In Game Four, Vegas blocked 30 shots to Florida’s 15 blocks. And Cassidy deserves tons of credit for implementing a defensive scheme that operates as a passive 1-4 zone approach from the New Jersey Devils of last decade. It had allowed the Knights to continually have success despite rotating goaltenders all season.These were the reasons why I endorsed the Golden Knights in Game Five as my NHL Game of the Year — and they responded with an overwhelming 9-3 victory to win the game and lift Lord Stanley’s Cup in front of their home fans. Tkachuk was not able to play and it was later revealed that he had suffered a broken sternum in the third game of the series. Vegas scored twice in the first period — and after Florida scored first in the second period, the Golden Knights responded with four unanswered goals in the second period to take a commanding 6-1 lead to cruise to the victory in the final 20 minutes. Models like the zig-zag theory can be helpful — especially if they are backed with strong empirical evidence from similar situations. Using analytics to identify overvalued and undervalued teams is important. But these are just two of the tools in the successful handicapper’s toolbox. The best handicapping occurs when one assesses a variety of arguments — and makes good decisions regarding what evidence to privilege. While there were many good reasons to back the Golden Knights in Game Five of the Stanley Cup Finals, the best evidence might have come from the eye test in the final moments of Game Four. Best of luck — Frank.
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