Articles

My Secret Weapon in Attacking College Basketball Totals: Opponent Possession Average

by Hollywood Sports

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

One of the tools in my proverbial toolbox when handicapping college basketball over/unders is Defensive Opponent Possession Average. This metric took on a starring role for the Elite Eight game in the NCAA Tournament between Tennessee and Houston — and it helped me determine that the situation would be my 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year.The Volunteers and Cougars ranked 351st and 354th out of the 364 teams in Division I, with their opponents averaging 18.7 seconds per possession. For comparison's sake, the average possession length in Division I is 17.6 seconds. What does this mean, in practice? I see two distinct ramifications regarding shot quality. First, teams who shoot earlier in the shot clock tend to do so because they were able to generate a good shooting opportunity. Teams with longer opponents' average possession length are not giving up quality looks early in the shot clock. Second, the closer the team with the basketball gets to a shot clock violation, the more likely they are to force up a bad shot. So, Tennessee and Houston are two of the best teams in the nation when it comes to coaxing their opponents to take their first shot at the rim later in the shot clock. This helps Under plays for two reasons: (1) The longer a possession, the fewer overall possessions in a game. (2) The quality of the shots tend be worse if a team is taking longer to take a shot because of the play of the defense. But just like with any other angle, I would not endorse an Under play simply because it involved two teams with impressive numbers with this metric. To a certain extent, the number already takes this dynamic into account since it is represented by the team’s defensive efficiency numbers. I am most effective when taking multiple different perspectives into account to come to a conclusion. In the case of Tennessee versus Houston, there were several important factors and pieces of evidence that led me to bet and endorse the Under, despite the Total being set in the low 120s.Tennessee allowed the Kentucky Wildcats to make 49% of their shots in their previous game in the Sweet 16, which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 12 games. But head coach Rick Barnes had his team hyper-focused on taking away Kentucky’s 3-point shooting, which had burned them in their two previous losses against them this season. The Volunteers limited the Wildcats to a season-low 15 shots from behind the arc, which mitigated the power of their 40% shooting percentage on those shots. Tennessee also made 50.9% of their shots in that double-revenge game, which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Volunteers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row, which includes six of their eight games played on the road. Tennessee was once again an elite defensive team that ranked third in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also ranked fourth on the road with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6.%. They presented a very tough matchup for the Cougars. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is outstanding at making 3s — they led the nation by making 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc going into that game. But that mark did decline to a 37.8% clip when playing away from home, ranking 17th. The Volunteers had an elite perimeter defense that ranked second in the nation on the road by holding their opponents to 28.7% shooting from deep. Tennessee also ranked 24th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 47.4% shooting inside the arc — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Cougars. Houston ranks 289th in the nation by only making 46.7% of their shots inside the arc — and they were scoring -3.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The Volunteers had played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who were making 37% or more of their shots from behind the arc. They had played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC — and they had played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court. They had played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 80% or more of their games, including five of those seven games on the road. Houston holds their opponents to 38.4% shooting — and Tennessee had played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots. The Cougars make 45.5% of their shots — and the Volunteers had played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total against teams who are shooting at least 45% from the field. Houston only made 37.7% of their shots from the field in their two-point win against the Purdue Boilermakers in their victory in the Sweet 16. That effort continued a disturbing trend as they are only making 42.0% of their shots in their last five contests. J’Wan Roberts was perhaps not back to 100% since returning from injury — he only scored 5 points against Purdue on Friday from 2 of 5 shooting. The Cougars had played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. The Cougars are the number one team in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, although they are “only” second in that metric when playing on the road. They ranked 22nd in the nation on the road with their opponents making only 46.9% of their shots inside the arc — and they ranked second by holding their opponents to 29.6% shooting from behind the arc. They were holding their opponents to 38.4% shooting, which was resulting in just 58.4 Points-Per-Game. Tennessee had only one reliable 3-point shooter in Chaz Lanier — but if Sampson can draw up a scheme to take him away, the Volunteers are likely in trouble to score baskets. Houston also had an advantage in crashing the offensive glass by ranking 11th in the nation by pulling down 36.6% of their missed shots — and getting second-chance scoring opportunities lowers the number of overall possessions in the game, especially when considering Houston’s slow pace of play. The Volunteers ranked 199th in the nation in defensive rebounding with their opponents pulling down 30.0% of their misses — but that number did speak to Barnes’ stylistic preference to eschew protecting the defensive glass for fast break opportunities. There have been times this season when he commits to stopping the opponent’s offensive rebounding. But those numbers also reflect head coach Rick Barnes’ preference to sacrifice defensive rebounding for being aggressive for getting out on the fast break when they pull down the basketball 70% of the time. Tennessee held Auburn — and a comparable offensive rebounding team to Houston— to pulling down only 26.5% of their missed shots in the SEC tournament. Longer offensive possessions for the Cougars or fewer fast break chances for the Volunteers — either way, it helps the Under. Houston had played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total when favored. They had played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 20 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting, they had played 13 of these games Under the Total.If styles make fights, then this game could quickly devolve into a rock fight since both teams play at such a slow pace. Tennessee ranks 280th in the nation by averaging 18.4 seconds per possession — and they rank 280th with their games averaging 63.6 adjusted possessions. Houston ranks 345th by averaging only 19.6 seconds per possession — and they rank 360th with their games averaging just 61.6 adjusted possessions per game. These are the reasons why Hollywood Sports was on the Under with a strong 25* endorsement — which we won with the Cougars’ 69-50 victory. Best of luck — Frank.

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Auburn is a Chameleon When It Comes to Tempo

by Team Del Genio

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

The Auburn Tigers are a chameleon when it comes to tempo. Head coach Bruce Pearl wants his team to be comfortable playing in track meets and in slow slogs. In their Sweet Sixteen game, Michigan head coach Dusty May wanted the Wolverines to play quickly in their showdown with the Tigers, and Pearl was happy to oblige. Auburn rallied from a 48-39 deficit in the second half to win by a 78-65 score in a game that finished far below the 155.5 over/under number installed by the oddsmakers. Yet the low score had everything to do with poor shooting than a slow pace, as the 75 possessions in that game were the second most in regulation time the Tigers experienced all season. The lone exception was the 78 possessions in Auburn’s game against Alabama in February, and the Crimson Tide played at the fastest pace in the country. The Tigers only shot 39.4% from the field in the win, yet they tightened things up on defense by holding the Wolverines to 35.6% shooting. After that game, Auburn’s opponents were scoring 69.3 points per game on 40.8% shooting, and their last five opponents after that game were averaging only 65.0 points per game on 39.8% shooting. They ranked eighth in the country in defensive efficiency. Yet the Tigers have played low-scoring games at slower paces as well this season. Division I college basketball games average 67.4 possessions per game. Tennessee was one of the slowest-paced teams in the country, whose games average 63.6 possessions per game. In their first game against the Volunteers, they won in a very low-scoring game, 53-51, with 63 possessions for both teams. In the rematch in the SEC tournament, the shooting was better for both sides yet only 135 combined points were scored in Tennessee’s 70-65 victory, where there was one less possession for each team at 62. Auburn was willing to play at South Carolina’s preferred slow pace in conference play as well. The Gamecocks play at the 287th slowest pace in the country, and the Tigers beat them, 66-63, with 60 possessions. In their second game of the season against Houston, whose average of 61.6 possessions per game is also the lowest in the country, Auburn won, 74-68, in a game with 62 possessions played.What would the pace of play be for the Tigers’ Elite Eight showdown with Michigan State? The Spartans were playing at the national average when it comes to pace at 67.4 possessions per game. Yet in the Spartans' 11-2 run to the under in their last thirteen games, they had seen their possession average drop to 66.8 per game, ranking 207th in the country. In their ten games away from the Breslin Center against opponents who rank in the top fifty in the country in net efficiency, the possessions per game mark lower to 65.7, ranking 272nd in the country. An old-school coach like Tom Izzo’s instinct is to slow the game down when playing an opponent who may have better talent. In their previous two games in this tournament against New Mexico and Mississippi, there were 65 and 64 possessions. He wants a slow tempo, and Pearl usually obliges. The Spartans had played six of their last seven games under the number when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They had played five straight unders against teams winning 80% or more of their games. They had played fourteen of their last seventeen games under the total when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 140 to 149.5. Four of those five unders in that point total range were played on a neutral court. Auburn had played fifteen of their last twenty-two games under the number when playing for the second time in three days. They had played five of their last eight games in the NCAA tournament under the total with Pearl as their head coach. Michigan State was one of the best defensive teams in the country and ranks fifth in defensive efficiency. They held Ole Miss to 40.6% shooting in their win in the Sweet Sixteen. The Tigers held their opponents to 40.8% shooting before the Elite Eight, and the Spartans had played twelve of their last fifteen games under the total against opponents with a defensive field goal percentage of 42% or lower.Both of these squads are great rebounding teams, and the battle of the boards should contribute to slowing their Elite Eight game down. Auburn averaged 35 rebounds and limited their opponents to 29 rebounds, and Michigan State had played ten of their last eleven games under the number against opponents with a +4.0 or higher net rebounding margin. The Tigers won the game, 70-64, to advance to the Final Four. Auburn only shot 43% from the field in the victory, yet they held the Spartans made 34% of their shots. Yet, Izzo got the pace of play he preferred, as there were 67 mutual possessions in the game. Sure enough, the 134 combined points scored were below the total of 147.5 installed by the oddsmakers. Good luck - TDG.

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Copa Libertadores Group Betting (2025 Season)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

Copa Libertadores is back for the season of 2025 with the first games of the group stage starting on Tuesday, April 1. Botafogo is the defending champion from last season and the tournament has been dominated by Brasilian clubs over the last few years. A Brasilian club has won this competition the last 6 straight years, and the Final has been 2 Brasilian clubs in 4 of the last 5 years. There has not been a repeat champion since Palmeiras won B2B in 2020 and 2021. Only 1 club can lift the trophy in the end, but there are plenty of ways to bet this competition and lots of value to be found in the group stage alone. Now with the group stage starting up, it is time to see which clubs have the best chance of topping their groups in the group stage and which clubs have value to qualify for the knockout rounds.  Group Winner Group A: Group A is the group consisting of Botafogo -125, Estudiantes +137, Universidad de Chile +700, and Carabobo +10000. Botafogo is the favorite to win this group and for good reason as they are the defending champions of the competition. They did not win their group last season, but they went on to win the whole tournament and there is going to be a heavy focus on defending their title in this group stage. They are in a weaker group this year with 1 club from Argentina, 1 club from Chile, and 1 club from Venezuela, and none of those clubs have been dominating their respective domestic leagues either. Botafogo still has a lot of the quality and depth that won them the competition last season and they should have no problem topping this group as the defending champions so this is a good price for them. Botafogo to win Group A at -125. Group B: Group B is the group consisting of River Plate -188, Independiente del Valle +400, Barcelona Guayaquil +450, and Universitario de Deportes +1200. River Plate is the big favorite in this group, but that is more due to name value. River Plate is one of the biggest clubs in Argentina and they have the money to put out a competitive team each year, but they have not been dominating their domestic league in recent years and have also struggled in this competition. They did dominate their group last season, but they also played in a very weak group and ended up fizzling out of the competition in the knockouts. They do not have a strong attack this season as they have struggled to score goals, and that will be a problem in this group with some teams that can score. They also struggle a lot more away from home and they will have to deal with some altitude playing in this group. Independiente del Valle and Barcelona Guayaquil both finished 3rd in their respective groups last season, but both have been dominant teams in Ecuador the last few years and they have experience playing in this competition. If another team not named River Plate is going to win this group, it will be one of those two, and Barcelona Guayaquil is the better of the 2 in their current states. Barcelona Guayaquil also has a much better attack and they will be able to score their way out of trouble in this group, also helping with their goal differential if the group becomes tight in the end. Barcelona Guayaquil to win Group B at +450. Group E: Group E is the group consisting of Racing Club +120, Fortaleza +187, Colo Colo +300, and Atletico Bucaramanga +1600. Racing Club is the favorite to win this group as they are the Copa Sudamericana champions from last season and even won the CONMEBOL Recopa, but they have not been in good form since winning Copa Sudamericana last season and they do not match up as well in this competition. Fortaleza was also a team that was in Copa Sudamericana last season and even though they did not win the competition, they also dominated their group in the group stage. Racing Club is only the favorite due to being the Copa Sudamericana champion, but they are not the strongest team in this group. Fortaleza plays in a much stronger league in the Brasileirao and they had to earn this spot in Copa Libertadores, finishing 4th place in the league last season. They have also been in great form in the Cearense and won their 1st match of the Brasileirao so that great start is going to carry over into this competition and it will hurt Racing Club who has not been in great form recently and is still feeling the hangover of winning last year. Fortaleza to win Group E at +187. Group F: Group F is the group consisting of Internacional -106, Bahia +200, Atletico Nacional Medellin +500, and Nacional de Football +900. Internacional is the favorite to win this group and they are the strongest team in the group. They play in the toughest league and do have Bahia in the group who also plays in the Brasileirao with them. Internacional and Bahia are going to be the top 2 teams in this group as they both have a lot more quality and depth than the other 2 teams in the group. Both have also been in great form to start the season, but Internacional has the better team and they have a team that compete for the Copa Libertadores Title this season. Bahia has a lot of quality and has been in great form recently, but they also had to play their way into this group stage in the qualifying rounds and they have had to play a lot more matches than Internacional. That is going to take a toll on them down the road as they do not have the depth that a team like Internacional has, and Internacional has more quality in their depth as well. Internacional is going to be a threat in this competition this year so there is some good value in them winning their group. Internacional to win Group F at -106. Group Qualification Group B: One team that has a lot of value to qualify for the knockout rounds is Barcelona Guayaquil at +110. Barcelona Guayaquil was already mentioned earlier as a possible group winner so this bet also has a lot of value for the same reasons. If Barcelona Guayaquil does not end up winning their group, they should be good enough for a 2nd place finish. Barcelona Guayaquil to qualify at +110. Group F: One team that has some value to qualify for the knockout rounds is Bahia at -150. Bahia has been in very good form to start the season and this is a team that has been on the upward trend going back to last season. They are in a group with another Brasilian club, but they also have 2 weaker clubs in the group who they should have no trouble beating. Bahia has a very good defense that will be able to carry them through this group stage, but they are also very dangerous with their attack and will make the most of their home matches in the group. Bahia is a top 2 team in this group and they have the quality to get past the group stage. Bahia to qualify at -150. Group G: One team that has some value to qualify for the knockout rounds is Bolivar at +100. Bolivar is in the same group as Palmeiras who is the favorite to win it so it is very likely that there will only be 1 spot up for grabs in this group once Palmeiras is accounted for. Bolivar has a very good chance at finishing in 2nd place though as they have one of the better teams in all of Bolivia and they also have a lot of experience in this competition. They dominate their domestic league so they usually end up in the group stage of Copa Libertadores, and last season they even won their group despite having Flamengo in it. Bolivar has more quality than the other 2 teams in the group, but they also have a big advantage at home that makes it very difficult for opposing teams to steal points from them. Bolivar plays in La Paz which is one of the highest places in all of South America so opposing teams tend to struggle a lot due to the altitude. The experience that Bolivar has in this competition along with the altitude they play at gives them a very good chance to be that team that finishes 2nd place in the group. Bolivar to qualify at +100.

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Copa Libertadores Futures (2025 Season)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

Copa Libertadores is back for the season of 2025 with the first games of the group stage starting on Tuesday, April 1. Botafogo is the defending champion from last season and the tournament has been dominated by Brasilian clubs over the last few years. A Brasilian club has won this competition the last 6 straight years, and the Final has been 2 Brasilian clubs in 4 of the last 5 years. There has not been a repeat champion since Palmeiras won B2B in 2020 and 2021. Now with the group stage starting up, it is time to see who has the best chance of taking home the Copa Libertadores Trophy this season.  To Win Outright Flamengo +400: Flamengo is coming into this season with the best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Flamengo is always a big favorite in this competition as one of the biggest clubs in all of Brasil. The last time they won this competition was back in 2022, and they have won the trophy twice in the last 6 years as well as being a runner up in 2021. Flamengo always has a lot of quality in their squad, but they have added a few more quality players for this season and now have a lot of depth to lean on as well. They are going to need that depth to make a deep run in this competition, and they will be helped by the fact that they are in a weaker group that they should dominate. They have also been in great form as they dominated the Carioca and won it all by beating Fluminense in the Final. Copa Libertadores is always a big focus for this team and after falling short the last 2 seasons, they will be more focused on making a deep run this year. Flamengo has the quality and the depth to win it all this year, and they are by far the most talented team in the competition coming into this season. Flamengo has some value at this price to lift the trophy this season.  Palmeiras +450: Palmeiras is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Palmeiras is always a big threat in this competition as they are one of the biggest clubs in Brasil and always have one of the best squads, similar to Flamengo. Palmeiras has been very good in this competition over the years as well, winning twice in the last 5 years as they won it B2B in 2020 and 2021. They have a lot of quality and depth in their squad as they have brought in lots of talent from both European and South American clubs. Palmeiras is always going to be a big threat in this competition with the money they spend and this competition is always going to be a focus for them as well. They are not coming into the competition in great form though as they did lose in the Final of the Paulista Serie A1 to Corinthians. They should be able to finish atop their group in the group stage and there are not many teams that can give them trouble, but they did struggle to win matches quite a bit against Brasileirao clubs in the Paulista Serie A1 and those draws will hurt them as they get deeper into the competition, leaving matches up to chance with penalties. Palmeiras is a very good team and there are not many teams that can beat them, but there are some teams that they struggle to beat and eventually they will run into one that gets the better of them. There is not a lot of value in Palmeiras at this price since there are better options for teams to win the tournament.  Botafogo +650: Botafogo is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Botafogo is the defending champion of this competition as they beat Atletico Mineiro 3-1 in the Final last season, but they have not been in great form since winning the competition. They lost some of that talent that took them so far and they have lost every trophy they have played for since then. They lost 3-0 to Pachuca in their 1st game of the FIFA Club World Cup, lost 3-1 to Flamengo in the Supercopa do Brasil, and they lost 4-0 on aggregate to Copa Sudamericana champions Racing Club in the CONMEBOL Recopa. They were not in great form in the Carioca either, failing to even make the playoffs. Botafogo has been very dominant in Brasil over the last 2 seasons, but only 2 clubs have been able to repeat the Copa Libertadores Title in the last 9 years and both of those clubs are the 2 biggest in Brasil, Flamengo and Palmeiras, so it is unlikely that Botafogo repeats this season. The still have the quality as well as the depth and experience to make a deep run, but they also won the Brasileirao last season so they have a major target on their back this year and will get the best effort of every team they play. Botafogo had a special season last year, but they are unlikely to repeat that and eventually they will run into a better team that gets the better of them in this competition as they have struggled in meaningful competitions since winning the Copa Libertadores Title. There is no real value in Botafogo to repeat as champions at this price.  River Plate +800: River Plate is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. River Plate is one of the biggest clubs in all of Argentina and they are the last non-Brasilian team to win this competition, beating Boca Juniors back in the 2018 Final. River Plate is also 4th on the all-time list with 4 Copa Libertadores Titles which is more than any single Brasilian club, but the competition has been dominated by Brasilian clubs the last 6 years and that does not look to be changing any time soon. River Plate has been very disappointing in this competition over the last few years, and they have not even been that dominant in their own domestic league either. They do have a lot of quality in their squad as well as a lot of depth, but a lot of that is in the midfield and on defense. They have a very good defense that does not allow many goals and that will take them far in this competition, but they also have a very weak attack that is going to be a big problem the deeper they go. They are not off to a great start this season in the Liga Profesional de Futbol either. River Plate is also in a very difficult group with 3 teams from weaker leagues, but those 3 teams are some of the best in their respective leagues and will not go down easily in the group. River Plate needs to make a lot of improvements, specifically with their attack, if they want to be a real contender in this competition. In their current state, this is not a team that can win this competition so there is no real value in River Plate at this price.  Racing Club +850: Racing Club is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Racing Club is the current Copa Sudamericana champion from last season and they also won the CONMEBOL Recopa over Botafogo, 4-0 on aggregate. They do not have a lot of experience playing in this specific competition though, and they only have 1 Copa Libertadores Title in their club history. They have not been in good form to start the new season in the Liga Profesional de Futbol either. They are dominating the way they did last season, and they have struggled a lot more away from home which is going to be a problem in this group stage. Their group is not a slam dunk win for them as they have 2 quality teams, 1 from Brasil and 1 from Chile, who both know how to make runs in this competition. They do not have the quality that they had in their squad last season either. Part of the reason they won Copa Sudamericana last season is because they were playing against much weaker clubs who play in much weaker leagues, but now they are in the big leagues and they just do not match up well against some of the stronger teams they could face down the line. There is no real value in Racing Club to lift the trophy at this price.  São Paulo +900: São Paulo is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. São Paulo is the most decorated Brasilian club in this competition with 3 Copa Libertadores Titles and 3 times runner up, but it has been a while since they won this competition. The last time they won was back in 2005 and they have not been back to the final since the very next year when they lost in the 2006 Final to Internacional. They dominated their group in the group stage last season and lost in the quarter-final to eventual champions Botafogo. They did have a surge of good play last season which got them into 6th place in the Brasileirao, but they are not a very consistent team. They are very reliant on winning matches at home and have not performed nearly as well away from home. That is going to be a big problem in this competition as they do not have the strongest attack either. They made it to the Semi-Final of the Paulista Serie A1 before losing to Palmeiras, but they did not have a great season as they did not string many wins together. Their consistency and weaker attack will come back to bite them the deeper they go into this competition. There is no real value in São Paulo to win this competition at this price.  Internacional +1000: Internacional is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Internacional has only won this competition twice in their history, winning in 2006 and in 2010. Internacional has been building a competitive team over the last few years now and really started to trend upward when they picked up Enner Valencia. Now they have made some big moves for this season and have a squad riddled with quality and depth at every position. That depth is going to be big for them to make a deep run in this competition, and they have been in great form to start the season. They dominated the Gaucho and ended up winning in the Final against Gremio. They have a very good defense that does not give up many goals, but they also have a very strong attack that can find the net as well. Internacional has put together a very good team for this season and this could finally be the year that they take a big step and start to dominate. They are going to be a big threat in this competition this year with the quality and the depth they have. Internacional has a lot of value here as a dark horse to win this competition.  RecommendationCopa Libertadores is the most desired competition in South America for these clubs to win, but only a few clubs actually have the quality and the depth to make a run and win it all. The competition has been dominated by Brasilian clubs over the last 6 years and that is unlikely to change this year with the current landscape, but there has been a different winner each of the last 4 years so that does open the door for some of these other Brasilian clubs. Flamengo is still the best team in the competition coming into this season and they are going to have the hunger to do well so there is some value in Flamengo at +400 to win it all, but Internacional could be a sneaky dominant team in all competitions this season so there is a lot of value in Internacional at +1000 to win this competition as a dark horse. Flamengo at +400 and Internacional at +1000 are the 2 best options to go with.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and MLB Previews and Odds - 03/31/2025

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

The Monday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and MLB action. The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. Four NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Miami Heat travel to Washington to face the Wizards as an 8.5-point road favorite with the total set at 221 (all odds from DraftKings). The Utah Jazz play in Charlotte against the Hornets as a -1 point road favorite with an over/under of 219.5. The Indiana Pacers host the Sacramento Kings as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 235. The Los Angeles Clippers are in Orlando to play the Magic as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 211.5. The Boston Celtics visit Memphis to challenge the Grizzlies on TNT at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 236. The Oklahoma City Thunder play at home against the Chicago Bulls at 8:10 p.m. ET as a 14.5-point favorite with an over/under of 239. The Dallas Mavericks are home against the Brooklyn Nets at 8:40 p.m. ET as a 10-point favorite with a total of 220.5. The Los Angeles Lakers host the Houston Rockets on TNT at 10:10 p.m. ET as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 226.The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The New Jersey Devils play at home against the Minnesota Wild as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Philadelphia Flyers are home against the Nashville Predators as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche host the Calgary Flames at 8:37 p.m. ET as a -258 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Dallas Stars play in Seattle against the Kraken at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has the first four games in the debut of the College Basketball Crown postseason tournament on FS1 taking place at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Butler battles Utah at 3:00 p.m. ET as a 1-point favorite with a total of 155.5. Boise State takes on George Washington at 5:30 p.m. ET as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141.5. Nebraska challenges Arizona State at 8:30 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 154.5. Georgetown goes against Washington State at 11:00 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 159.5.Major League Baseball has 14 games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 2:10 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Twins are in Chicago to play the White Sox as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Kansas City Royals as a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Baltimore Orioles are home against the Boston Red Sox at 2:35 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Philadelphia Phillies host the Colorado Rockies at 3:05 p.m. ET as a -238 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 6:40 p.m. ET. The New York Mets travel to Miami to face the Marlins as a -185 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Texas Rangers play in Cincinnati against the Reds as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Tampa Bay Rays play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Toronto Blue Jays are home against the Washington Nationals at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The St. Louis Cardinals host the Los Angeles Angels at 7:45 p.m.  ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Houston Astros play at home against the San Francisco Giants at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Two more MLB games begin at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Seattle Mariners are home against the Detroit Tigers as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The San Diego Padres host the Cleveland Guardians as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Chicago Cubs are in Oakland to face the A’s at 10:05 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Atlanta Braves at 10:10 p.m. ET as a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 8.

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NFL Draft Odds

by AAA Sports

Sunday, Mar 30, 2025

The chalk says quarterback Cameron Ward to the Tennessee Titans, edge rusher Abdul Carter to the Cleveland Browns and wideout / defensive back Travis Hunter to the New York Giants. But after Ward, who really knows what is going on in the minds of NFL team coaches and general managers? Along with having one of the top five picks in the draft comes the danger of losing your job if you make the wrong move.Here’s what the odds say for some of the key players at the top end of the draft. What teams need what, who might pick whom, and why?CAMERON WARD – There seems little likelihood that the Titans will throw a curveball here. They need a quarterback, Ward is simply the best quarterback on the board. That’s why he’s the consensus (-2000) pick. Tennessee is not even bothering to play the Best Player Available tune, and there’s less than zero chance that they’ll move the pick. Add in the fact that Ward has said that he actually wants to play for the Titans, and this is as close to a lock as you’re going to see on April 24.ABDUL CARTER – This is where things could get sticky. Carter is a (-200) favorite to hear his name called next, but these are Cleveland Browns we’re dealing with, and nothing is ever certain. Picking Carter here to pair with Myles Garrett and creating a dominant D-line is enticing, but that means they’ll have to stick it out with Deshaun Watson, who will be dragging a $230 million guaranteed deal into the season along with two Achilles surgeries. Do the Browns want to cut bait and see what Shedeur Sanders (+340 to be the pick here) can do? Watson supposedly is making good progress on his latest heel surgery. What to do? What to do?TRAVIS HUNTER – Signing veterans Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson is a pretty clear sign that the New York Giants will be content with treading water while they stockpile talent, and all signs point to Travis Hunter (-165) at No. 3. Either that, or the Giants are convinced that the Browns will bite on Sanders and want to have their two QBs ready to go rather than pick someone off the waiver wire. Why else would they sign TWO quarterbacks who have maxed out and probably don’t have enough juice to get the NYG to the playoffs? If they take Sanders, Winston should pack his suitcase.PATRIOTS and JAGUARS ***New England picks at No. 4, and they have their QB for present and future in Drake Maye. They need help everywhere after back-to-back 4-13 seasons, so Hunter and his two-position portfolio would seem to be a perfect fit. But the odds (+125) say the first pick will be a left tackle to shore up one of the worst offensive lines in team history. Armand Membou could be entrusted to protect Maye’s backside as talk of taking Will Campbell appears to have cooled down a tad.***Jaguar fans – those who are still on board, anyway – would love to see both QBs, Carter and either Campbell or Membou taken ahead of them, opening the door for J-Ville to cash in with Hunter. That is unlikely to happen, but they can still dream. The most likely scenario is that the Jags sign, then accept their consolation prize – defensive tackle Mason Graham. Not the worst thing in the world for Jacksonville, but Hunter would fit in better playing full-time on one side of the ball and part-time on the other.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and MLB Previews and Odds - 03/30/2025

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Mar 30, 2025

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and MLB action. The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Los Angeles Clippers at 3:40 p.m. ET as an 8-point favorite with the total set at 231 (all odds from DraftKings). The New York Knicks play at home against the Portland Trail Blazers at 6:10 p.m. ET as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 221.5. Four NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The New Orleans Pelicans are home against the Charlotte Hornets as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 214.5. The Milwaukee Bucks host the Atlanta Hawks as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 235. The Minnesota Timberwolves play at home against the Detroit Pistons as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 226. The Golden State Warriors travel to San Antonio to play the Spurs as a 12-point road favorite with an over/under of 232.5. The Toronto Raptors play in Philadelphia against the 76ers at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 222.5. The Houston Rockets are in Phoenix to take on the Suns as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 224.The National Hockey League has eight games on its slate. The Florida Panthers are at home against the Montreal Canadiens at 1:07 p.m. ET as a -290 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. Two more NHL games start at 3:07 p.m. ET. The Washington Capitals host the Buffalo Sabres as a -285 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Winnipeg Jets play at home against the Vancouver Canucks as a -225 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Utah Hockey Club visits Chicago to battle the Blackhawks at 4:07 p.m. ET as a -218 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two NHL games begin at 5:07 p.m. ET. The Carolina Hurricanes are home against the New York Islanders as a -290 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Ottawa Senators play in Pittsburgh against the Penguins as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs are in Anaheim to go against the Ducks at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Los Angeles Kings host the San Jose Sharks on ESPN at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -410 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has two games between Division I opponents on CBS in the final two games of the Elite Eight of the NCAA tournament. Houston battles Tennessee at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana, at 2:20 p.m. ET. The Cougars are a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 124.5. Auburn challenges Michigan State at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, at 5:05 p.m. ET. The Tigers are a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 147.5. Major League Baseball has 13 games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET. The New York Yankees play at home against the Milwaukee Brewers as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Washington to play the Nationals as a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are home against the Baltimore Orioles a 1:37 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Three more MLB games start at 1:40 p.m. ET. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Colorado Rockies as a -198 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The San Francisco Giants play in Cincinnati against the Reds as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Miami against the Marlins as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Two more MLB games begin at 2:10 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Angels visit Chicago against the White Sox as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Kansas City Royals play at home against the Cleveland Guardians as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Minnesota Twins are in St. Louis to take on the Cardinals at 2:15 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Texas Rangers are home against the Boston Red Sox at 2:35 p.m. ET as a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Chicago Cubs as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Seattle Mariners play at home against the Oakland A’s as a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN at 7:10 features the San Diego Padres at home battling the Atlanta Braves. The Padres are a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 8. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and MLB Previews and Odds - 03/29/2025

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Mar 29, 2025

The Saturday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and MLB action. The National Basketball Association has seven games on its docket. The Sacramento Kings travel to Orlando to face the Magic at 5:10 p.m. ET as a 1-point road favorite with the total set at 218 (all odds from DraftKings). The Brooklyn Nets play in Washington against the Wizards as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 220.5. The Miami Heat are in Philadelphia to face the 76ers as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 218. Four games conclude the NBA card at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Boston Celtics visit the San Antonio Spurs as a 12-point road favorite with an over/under of 228.5. The Memphis Grizzlies host the Los Angeles Lakers as a 2-point favorite with a total of 237.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder play at home against the Indiana Pacers as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 239. The Chicago Bulls are home against the Dallas Mavericks as a 3-point favorite with a total of 237.5. The National Hockey League has 11 games on its slate. The Philadelphia Flyers host the Buffalo Sabres at 1:07 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning play at home against the New York Islanders at 2:07 p.m. ET as a -230 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Colorado Avalanche are home against the St. Louis Blues at 4:37 p.m. ET as a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Minnesota Wild host the New Jersey Devils at 6:07 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights play in Nashville against the Predators at 6:37 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. Two more NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Ottawa Senators play at home against the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Los Angeles Kings are home against the Toronto Maple Leafs as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Detroit Red Wings host the Boston Bruins on ABC at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers play at home against the Calgary Flames at 10:07 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two more games finish the NHL card at 10:37 p.m. ET. The New York Rangers are in San Jose to take on the Sharks as a -198 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Dallas Stars travel to Seattle to face the Kraken as a -170 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has two games between Division I opponents on TBS in the first two games of the Elite Eight of the NCAA tournament. Florida battles Texas Tech at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California, at 6:09 p.m. ET. The Gators are a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 156.5.Duke challenges Alabama at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, at 8:49 p.m. ET. The Blue Devils are a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 174.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees are home against the Milwaukee Brewers at 1:05 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Angels play in Chicago against the White Sox at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -166 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Minnesota Twins are in St. Louis against the Cardinals on FS1 at 2:15 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Baltimore Orioles at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Philadelphia Phillies play at Washington against the Nationals at 4:05 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. Four more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Tampa Bay Rays play at home against the Colorado Rockies as a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Kansas City Royals are home against the Cleveland Guardians as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Cincinnati Reds host the San Francisco Giants as a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates are in Miami to play the Marlins as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Boston Red Sox at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Two more MLB games are Fox’s regional coverage at 7:15 p.m. ET. The Houston Astros are home against the New York Mets as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves visit San Diego to play the Padres as a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Chicago Cubs at 8:40 p.m. ET as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two more games complete the MLB card at 9:10 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Detroit Tigers as a -205 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Seattle Mariners are home against the Oakland A’s as a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and MLB Previews and Odds - 03/28/2025

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Mar 28, 2025

The Friday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and MLB action. The National Basketball Association has seven games on its docket. The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Detroit to face the Pistons at 7:10 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point road favorite with the total set at 230.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Two more NBA games tip off at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Toronto Raptors host the Charlotte Hornets as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 217.5. The Los Angeles Clippers play in Brooklyn to take on the Nets as a 13-point road favorite with a total of 214.5. Three NBA games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Golden State Warriors visit New Orleans to play the Pelicans as a 13-point road favorite with an over/under of 223.5. The New York Knicks play in Milwaukee against the Bucks as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 220.5. The Minnesota Timberwolves play at home against the Phoenix Suns as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 227. The Denver Nuggets are home against the Utah Jazz as a 17.5-point favorite with a total of 238.5. The National Hockey League has six games on its slate. Three NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Florida Panthers host the Utah Hockey Club as a -258 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Columbus Blue Jackets play at home against the Vancouver Canucks as a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes are home against the Montreal Canadiens as a -298 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Winnipeg Jets host the New Jersey Devils at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Vegas Golden Knights play in Chicago against the Blackhawks at 8:40 p.m.  ET as a -305 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The New York Rangers are in Anaheim to face the Ducks as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The NCAAB college basketball schedule has four games between Division I opponents in the final four games of the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament. Michigan State battles Mississippi at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, on CBS at 7:09 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 143.5. Tennessee faces Kentucky at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana, on TBS at 7:39 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 144.5. Auburn plays at home against Michigan at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia, on CBS at 9:39 p.m. ET as an 8.5-point underdog with an over/under of 153.5. Houston challenges Purdue at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana, on TBS at 10:09 p.m. ET as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 131.5. Major League Baseball has nine games on its schedule. The Tampa Bay Rays play at home against the Colorado Rockies at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Toronto Blue Jays are home against the Baltimore Orioles at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to Miami to go against the Miami Marlins at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5.The Boston Red Sox play in Texas to play the Rangers at 8:05 p.m. ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Houston Astros host the New York Mets at 8:10 p.m. ET as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Three MLB games start at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks play at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners are home against the Oakland A’s as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The San Diego Padres host the Atlanta Padres as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers play at home against the Detroit Tigers as a -205 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.

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NBA System of the Week

by Al McMordie

Thursday, Mar 27, 2025

Sports handicappers have many tools in their toolbox that they use to get an edge on the bookmakers.  When I handicap the NBA, I like to look at things like margin of victory, points scored, home/road statistics, won/loss percentages, and so forth.  Another thing I will often look at is the series history between the two teams, with a particular focus on which team won the previous meeting, and by how many points.Tonight, we have a nice situation in the NBA.  The Los Angeles Lakers will be in Chicago to face the Bulls, who just walloped L.A. at Staples Center five days ago, 146-115.  And what made that loss even more remarkable was that the Lakers were favored by 10.5 points, yet lost by 31.I consulted my trusty NBA Database (which was written up in ESPN Magazine on December 13, 2010), and researched how teams do when playing with revenge from such a big defeat earlier in the season.  And here's what I found.  Teams playing with revenge from a same-season loss by 30 or more points do quite well provided two other factors were present.  First, our revenge-minded team need to be the favorite.  And, second, our opponent needed to be off a SU/ATS win.  In that situation, our revengers have gone 73-46-1 ATS since 1990.Let's look deeper at our Chicago Bulls/Los Angeles Lakers match-up tonight.  The Lakers played last night, so there's always a chance they might rest players.  However, currently, both Luka Doncic and LeBron James are expected to suit up, and L.A. is a 4-point favorite at Circa Sportsbook.  That's good, since our revenger does need to be the favorite.  Next, we need the Bulls to be off a SU/ATS win.  And, indeed, they are, as they defeated Denver, 129-119, in their previous game.NBA System of the Week:  Play on a favorite with revenge from a loss earlier in the season by 30 or more points, if its opponent is off a SU/ATS win. Tonight's play:  Los Angeles Lakers -4Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB and MLB Previews and Odds - 03/27/2025

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Mar 27, 2025

 The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and MLB action. The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. Three NBA games tip off at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Indiana Pacers travel to Washington to play the Wizards as an 11-point road favorite with the total set at 235.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Orlando Magic host the Dallas Mavericks as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 219. The Cleveland Cavaliers play at home against the San Antonio Spurs as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 239. The Miami Heat are home against the Atlanta Hawks at 7:40 p.m. ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 227. Two NBA games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Lakers play in Chicago against the Bulls as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 239. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Memphis Grizzlies as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 238. The Houston Rockets are in Utah to play the Jazz at 9:10 p.m. ET as a 12.5-point road favorite with a total of 228. The Sacramento Kings play at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 225.5.The National Hockey League has ten games on its slate. Four NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Buffalo Sabres are home against the Pittsburgh Penguins as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Montreal Canadiens visit Philadelphia to play the Flyers as a -120 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Utah Hockey Club as a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Ottawa Senators play in Detroit against the Red Wings as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Washington Capitals are in Minnesota to play the Wild at 7:37 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The St. Louis Blues travel to Nashville to face the Predators at 8:07 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Dallas Stars play in Calgary against the Flames at 9:07 p.m. ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. Two NHL games begin at 10:07 p.m. ET. The Colorado Avalanche play at home against the Los Angeles Kings on ESPN as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Edmonton Oilers are in Seattle to play the Kraken with both teams priced as a -110 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs visit San Jose to play the Sharks at 10:37 p.m. ET as a -278 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The NCAAB college basketball schedule has four games between Division I opponents in the opening games of the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament. Alabama battles BYU on CBS at 7:09 p.m. ET at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 175.5. Florida takes on Maryland on TBS at 7:39 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco, California, as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 156.5. Duke plays against Arizona on CBS at 9:39 p.m. ET at the Prudential  Center in Newark as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 153.5. Texas Tech challenges Arkansas on TBS at 10:09 p.m. ET at the Chase Center in San Francisco as a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 148.5. Opening Day in Major League Baseball has 14 games on its schedule. The New York Yankees are home against the Milwaukee Brewers on ESPN at 3:05 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Baltimore Orioles play in Toronto to take on the Blue Jays at 3:07 p.m. ET as a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox are in Texas to play the Rangers as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to Washington to play the Nationals as a -170 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. Six MLB games begin at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Angels play in Chicago against the White Sox as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Houston Astros host the New York Mets as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Kansas City Royals play at home against the Cleveland Guardians as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Atlanta Braves are in San Diego to go against the Padres as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The Pittsburgh Penguins travel to Miami to take on the Marlins as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The San Francisco Giants play in Cincinnati to challenge the Reds with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 8. The Minnesota Twins are in St. Louis to battle the Cardinals at 4:15 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5.The Los Angeles Dodgers are home against the Detroit Tigers on ESPN at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -184 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. Two games conclude the MLB card at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Seattle Mariners host the Oakland A’s as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Arizona Diamondbacks play at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. 

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World Series Projections

by ASA, Inc.

Wednesday, Mar 26, 2025

Favorite - Philadelphia Phillies (+1000)The Dodgers are the overwhelming favorite to repeat as World Series champs, but the return is not favorable for LAD at +240. If one team has the ability to knock off the 2025 favorites, it is the Phillies. They currently have the 2nd highest active payroll and plenty of talent to compete with anyone in the league. Last season Philly finished with the second most wins, and dominated at home winning a league best 54 games at Citizen Bank Park. However, that sensational performance only amounted to a disappointing divisional series loss to the Mets in four games. On offense, Philadelphia has an elite top five of their batting order, projected as Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos. Ranked top five in almost all offensive categories in 2024, except the Phillies to have elite bats once again. On defense, Zack Wheeler is the highest paid starter in baseball, while having exceptional depth behind him. Having a top tier roster (or payroll) is not necessary to win the World Series, but it certainly helps when trying to dethrone the heavily favored Dodgers. Philly is one of the few who can compete with them on paper. Mid-Tier - Detroit Tigers (+3000)Even though Detroit ended their season to Cleveland in the divisional round, losing the series 3-2, they still finished as one of the hottest teams in MLB. The Tigers were 55-63 in August, then finished the regular season 31-12, sporting the best pitching in the league during that stretch. A historic ending to 2024 leaves high hopes for Detroit in 2025. Pitching is the catalyst for the Tigers, led by reigning Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. Reese Olson and Jack Flaherty are extremely solid while Jackson Jobe is possibly the best pitching prospect in the sport, with a flamethrower of an arm. With a rotation like that, the Tigers will be in a lot of close ball games. They led MLB in one run wins last season with 31, but hope to have a better run differential in 2025. They have an elite group of pitchers, making them dangerous for any team to face.  Long-Shot - Milwaukee Brewers (+5000)Each year the Brewers seem to lose a few of their best players, yet reload again and again in true moneyball fashion. They have made the playoffs in six of the past seven seasons which is one of the best marks in the league, especially considering their 23rd ranked payroll. Milwaukee had a top 5 team ERA last season, and the rotation is expected to be strong again with the return of star Brandon Woodruff. The batting is led by veteran Christian Yelich, William Contreras, and young star Jackson Chourio. The Brewers should once again be in contention for a NL Central title with the chance to make some noise come playoff time. Milwaukee seems to get the absolute most bang for their buck when it comes to players, maybe their World Series odds could provide some value as well.  

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