The SEC has been the top conference in college basketball this season and it hasn’t been particularly close. A recent surge from Florida gives the conference a serious national title threat but the strength of the conference is the depth, with all 16 teams considered top 100 caliber squads.
Currently the league projects to average 10 NCAA Tournament teams in most scenarios and seven teams should feel like they have already done enough: Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Georgia. The win by Georgia over Alabama this week puts the Bulldogs into that position from a recent bubble placement. These four remaining teams still look like viable tournament teams if things go well in the remaining games to close the regular season and next week’s SEC tournament, but there may not be room for all four.
Missouri 20-10 Overall, 10-7 SEC
Best Wins: (H) Florida, (H) Auburn, (A) Texas A&M, (H) Vanderbilt, (H) Tennessee
Remaining Game(s): (H) Arkansas
Missouri has a nice collection of quality wins and head-to-head wins over two of the fellow teams on this list, Auburn and Texas A&M, could be helpful as well. The win over Florida in the SEC opener should be enough to keep Missouri on the right side of the bubble in any scenario but it isn’t a sure thing yet.
Missouri just lost by 16 points at Oklahoma this week for a problematic result, and the Tigers have SEC losses to LSU and Ole Miss, as well as a head-to-head loss with Texas who could also be on the bubble. A non-conference loss to Notre Dame also hurts the overall resume while Missouri has occasionally suffered complete blowout losses, as half of the team’s 10 losses have come by double-digit margins. That means the NET rating for Missouri is likely to be worse than the other bubble teams on this list.
The finale this weekend hosting Arkansas isn’t a must-win game but the first SEC tournament game for the Tigers is likely to be against a lesser team that could create the risk of another bad loss for Missouri. The SEC tournament seeding is currently in flux as Missouri could land anywhere from 5th to 10th as the Tigers can’t feel comfortable yet.
Texas 18-11 Overall, 9-7 SEC
Best Wins: (N) NC State, (A) Alabama, (H) Vanderbilt, (H) Georgia, (A) Texas A&M
Remaining Games: (A) Arkansas, (H) Oklahoma
Winning at Texas A&M last weekend puts the Longhorns at 9-7 in SEC play, guaranteed to finish at least .500 in conference play. Texas won only one of its five quality non-conference games however and losing a head-to-head game with Auburn won’t be helpful if the bubble tightens, though Texas beat Missouri in the only meeting, and split with Texas A&M for comparison games with the other teams on this list.
Texas had a bad home loss to Mississippi State early in the SEC season but does have four wins against possible NCAA Tournament teams in the SEC. Texas has looked the part of a tournament team on offense but this is one of the lesser defensive teams in the conference.
The SEC Tournament seems likely to matter for Texas unless the Longhorns can score an upset win at Arkansas this week in addition to holding off Oklahoma in the home finale this weekend. Texas currently projects to finish as the #8 or #9 seed in the SEC tournament with an extra game required for the #9 seed against the #16 team before facing the #8 seed in the format.
Texas A&M 20-10 Overall 10-7 SEC
Best Wins: (A) Auburn, (A) Texas, (A) Georgia, (H) Kentucky
Remaining Games: (A) LSU
Texas A&M doesn’t have a high-end win like Missouri and Texas have while comparing similar records and results for the SEC bubble teams. The Aggies are also holding a negative trajectory in the past month, going 3-6 S/U since the start of February. The home win over Kentucky this week was a critical result as the Aggies had lost three off our home dates in February.
Head-to-head losses to Missouri and Texas and February won’t be helpful though the Aggies won at Texas in January to split that series. A two-point win at Auburn could also be valuable on Selection Sunday as well as the Aggies have a very suspect non-conference profile, going 1-3 S/U vs. top 100 teams with only a win over Florida State. Head-to-head losses to SMU from the ACC and UCF from the Big XII could also be damaging comparison results against fellow bubble teams.
Texas A&M must avoid an upset loss to LSU on the road in the regular season finale and this is a team that could wind up in a SEC tournament game vs. one of the other teams on this list in a potentially meaningful outcome.
Auburn 16-14 Overall 7-10 SEC
Best Wins: (N) St. John’s, (H) NC State, (H) Arkansas, (A) Florida, (H) Texas, (H) Kentucky
Remaining Games: (A) Alabama
Bruce Pearl has been fighting for his former team and now his son’s team in the media, but his efforts would be better served not aimed at Miami, OH and their perfect season, but rather at some of the other bubble teams in the SEC and other major conferences. Auburn will have the problem of simply having a much worse conference record than most of those teams as Auburn can’t finish better than 8-10 in league play.
Auburn has a huge trump card however with a 76-67 win at Florida, for one of the strongest results any team in the country can claim all season. Auburn has a head-to-head win over Texas as well and a couple of nice non-conference results as the Tigers played a dramatically tougher non-conference schedule than every other team on this list. Auburn beat St. John’s and NC State in non-conference play and lost to Houston, Michigan, Purdue, and Arizona, though only one of those four losses was a competitive finish.
Auburn shouldn’t be punished for a 9-4 non-conference record compared with the stronger records through lighter paths of most other bubble teams around the country. Auburn had a NCAA Tournament position in good hand until recent weeks, with a 2-7 run since late January and notable losses to Mississippi State, Oklahoma, and Mississippi.
Auburn still will have a resume worthy of NCAA Tournament consideration even if they lose at Alabama this weekend to slide to 7-11 in SEC play, but the Tigers will need to make a run next week to get some positive attention after going from last season’s #1 position in the SEC tournament to this season’s spot in the bottom six.
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