My Secret Weapon in Attacking College Basketball Totals: Opponent Possession Average
One of the tools in my proverbial toolbox when handicapping college basketball over/unders is Defensive Opponent Possession Average. This metric took on a starring role for the Elite Eight game in the NCAA Tournament between Tennessee and Houston — and it helped me determine that the situation would be my 25* CBB Elite Eight Total of the Year.The Volunteers and Cougars ranked 351st and 354th out of the 364 teams in Division I, with their opponents averaging 18.7 seconds per possession. For comparison's sake, the average possession length in Division I is 17.6 seconds. What does this mean, in practice? I see two distinct ramifications regarding shot quality. First, teams who shoot earlier in the shot clock tend to do so because they were able to generate a good shooting opportunity. Teams with longer opponents' average possession length are not giving up quality looks early in the shot clock. Second, the closer the team with the basketball gets to a shot clock violation, the more likely they are to force up a bad shot. So, Tennessee and Houston are two of the best teams in the nation when it comes to coaxing their opponents to take their first shot at the rim later in the shot clock. This helps Under plays for two reasons: (1) The longer a possession, the fewer overall possessions in a game. (2) The quality of the shots tend be worse if a team is taking longer to take a shot because of the play of the defense. But just like with any other angle, I would not endorse an Under play simply because it involved two teams with impressive numbers with this metric. To a certain extent, the number already takes this dynamic into account since it is represented by the team’s defensive efficiency numbers. I am most effective when taking multiple different perspectives into account to come to a conclusion. In the case of Tennessee versus Houston, there were several important factors and pieces of evidence that led me to bet and endorse the Under, despite the Total being set in the low 120s.Tennessee allowed the Kentucky Wildcats to make 49% of their shots in their previous game in the Sweet 16, which was the worst opponent’s field goal percentage in their last 12 games. But head coach Rick Barnes had his team hyper-focused on taking away Kentucky’s 3-point shooting, which had burned them in their two previous losses against them this season. The Volunteers limited the Wildcats to a season-low 15 shots from behind the arc, which mitigated the power of their 40% shooting percentage on those shots. Tennessee also made 50.9% of their shots in that double-revenge game, which was the best shooting effort in their last six contests. The Volunteers have played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row, which includes six of their eight games played on the road. Tennessee was once again an elite defensive team that ranked third in the nation on the road in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. They also ranked fourth on the road with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 45.6.%. They presented a very tough matchup for the Cougars. Head coach Kelvin Sampson’s team is outstanding at making 3s — they led the nation by making 39.8% of their shots from behind the arc going into that game. But that mark did decline to a 37.8% clip when playing away from home, ranking 17th. The Volunteers had an elite perimeter defense that ranked second in the nation on the road by holding their opponents to 28.7% shooting from deep. Tennessee also ranked 24th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 47.4% shooting inside the arc — and this is an area of vulnerability for the Cougars. Houston ranks 289th in the nation by only making 46.7% of their shots inside the arc — and they were scoring -3.8 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions when playing on the road. The Volunteers had played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who were making 37% or more of their shots from behind the arc. They had played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams outside the SEC — and they had played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total on a neutral court. They had played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams winning 80% or more of their games, including five of those seven games on the road. Houston holds their opponents to 38.4% shooting — and Tennessee had played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who are not making more than 42% of their shots. The Cougars make 45.5% of their shots — and the Volunteers had played 11 of their last 16 games on the road Under the Total against teams who are shooting at least 45% from the field. Houston only made 37.7% of their shots from the field in their two-point win against the Purdue Boilermakers in their victory in the Sweet 16. That effort continued a disturbing trend as they are only making 42.0% of their shots in their last five contests. J’Wan Roberts was perhaps not back to 100% since returning from injury — he only scored 5 points against Purdue on Friday from 2 of 5 shooting. The Cougars had played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing with one day or less of rest. The Cougars are the number one team in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, although they are “only” second in that metric when playing on the road. They ranked 22nd in the nation on the road with their opponents making only 46.9% of their shots inside the arc — and they ranked second by holding their opponents to 29.6% shooting from behind the arc. They were holding their opponents to 38.4% shooting, which was resulting in just 58.4 Points-Per-Game. Tennessee had only one reliable 3-point shooter in Chaz Lanier — but if Sampson can draw up a scheme to take him away, the Volunteers are likely in trouble to score baskets. Houston also had an advantage in crashing the offensive glass by ranking 11th in the nation by pulling down 36.6% of their missed shots — and getting second-chance scoring opportunities lowers the number of overall possessions in the game, especially when considering Houston’s slow pace of play. The Volunteers ranked 199th in the nation in defensive rebounding with their opponents pulling down 30.0% of their misses — but that number did speak to Barnes’ stylistic preference to eschew protecting the defensive glass for fast break opportunities. There have been times this season when he commits to stopping the opponent’s offensive rebounding. But those numbers also reflect head coach Rick Barnes’ preference to sacrifice defensive rebounding for being aggressive for getting out on the fast break when they pull down the basketball 70% of the time. Tennessee held Auburn — and a comparable offensive rebounding team to Houston— to pulling down only 26.5% of their missed shots in the SEC tournament. Longer offensive possessions for the Cougars or fewer fast break chances for the Volunteers — either way, it helps the Under. Houston had played 22 of their last 35 games Under the Total when favored. They had played 9 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big 12. And in their last 20 games against teams who hold their opponents to no better than 42% shooting, they had played 13 of these games Under the Total.If styles make fights, then this game could quickly devolve into a rock fight since both teams play at such a slow pace. Tennessee ranks 280th in the nation by averaging 18.4 seconds per possession — and they rank 280th with their games averaging 63.6 adjusted possessions. Houston ranks 345th by averaging only 19.6 seconds per possession — and they rank 360th with their games averaging just 61.6 adjusted possessions per game. These are the reasons why Hollywood Sports was on the Under with a strong 25* endorsement — which we won with the Cougars’ 69-50 victory. Best of luck — Frank.
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