History was made last week at The Masters as Rory McIlroy brought home his first green jacket with a playoff win over Justin Rose and became just the sixth player in history to complete the career Grand Slam. It was an epic Sunday at Augusta National as McIlroy entered the final day with a two-shot lead only to find himself down one after two holes but he gained the lead back after the third hole and took a four-shot lead into the final nine. Tying a Sunday best 66 with Hideki Matsuyama, Rose forced the playoff in part to McIlroy missing the winning putt on 18 but he bounced back with a birdie on the first playoff hole for the win.
While Rory is understandably taking this week off, it will be a loaded field at the RBC Heritage, the fifth signature event of the season on the PGA Tour, taking place from Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head, South Carolina. This is the third consecutive year the event has signature status which has gained scrutiny being played the week after The Masters but it is not deterring many players with 26 of the OWGR top 30 teeing it up, only McIlroy and Matsuyama of the eligible top 30 opting out. There are 71 players in the field in this no-cut event including reigning champion Scottie Scheffler who joins Matt Fitzpatrick (2023), Jordan Spieth (2022) and Matt Kuchar (2014) as the only returning past champions.
Harbour Town Golf Links is a par 71 that stretches 7,213 yards making it one of the shortest stops on tour but defends itself with tight fairways and numerous doglegs making it the essence of a ball position course. Distance off the tee is well down the list of metrics as the driver is taken out of play for a majority of the holes. Because Harbour Town is short and a placement course, Driving Accuracy is one of the top key components this week. Last year, seven players finished at 75 percent or higher driving accuracy and only Lucas Glover finished outside the top 20 as his short game let him down.
Strokes Gained: Approach is as important as ever here with Harbour Town having the second smallest greens on tour and history shows success comes with this. In 2024, 14 players gained +0.63 strokes or more with only three of those finishing outside the top 20, six finishing inside the top ten and three inside the top three. Strokes Gain: Around-The-Green is up there as well for those not having a strong Greens In Regulation percentage which is tough to achieve with the average size of the greens at just 3,700 square feet. Lastly, Stroke Gained: Putting comes into play as 14 players last year lost -0.59 strokes or worse on the greens and none finished better than T33.
The RBC Heritage starts a four-week testing period allowing the use of distance measuring devices, focusing on pace of play concerns. Players must ensure the device measures distance only as other features determining elevation, wind and slope are prohibited. This was tested on the Korn Ferry Tour a few years back and the pace of play was hardly affected. This week looks like pristine weather in Hilton Head with temperatures hitting the high 60s on Thursday and then reaching the low 70s on Friday, Saturday and Sunday with sunshine every day and no rain in the forecast. The wind coming off Calibogue Sound can be a concern but this week it will be pretty dormant with gusts maxing out at around 25 mph on Sunday.
Top four key categories this week in order:
Driving AccuracyStrokes Gained: ApproachStrokes Gained: Around-The-GreenStrokes Gained: Putting
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Shane LowryOdds: Win 2,500 ~ Top Five 450 ~ Top Ten 200Payout: Win 12,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,1250.00 ~ Top Ten 500.00
Lowry was in the mix at The Masters on Sunday and a top five or top ten at the very least was likely but he put up an 81, finishing dead last in the Sunday field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. That was surprising since that is his strength so we will chalk that up as an anomaly and expect a bounce back at a place he loves. Despite the blowup, he has gained strokes on approach in seven of his eight starts while the same can be said on approach. He has three top tens at the RBC Heritage and while he has been near the bottom the last two years, both were due to the worst putting performances from his entire 2023 and 2024 seasons. He will use that disappointing and stress free 81 as motivation.
Aaron RaiOdds: Win 4,000 ~ Top Five 650 ~ Top Ten 275Payout: Win 20,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,625.00 ~ Top Ten 687.50
We saw Aaron Rai open with a Thursday 70 at The Masters as he led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green before plummeting the next two days but closed with another 70 on Sunday. He heads to Harbour Town for only the second time in his career, the first resulting in a T48 in 2023 but he came into that event without a single top 20 for the season. This year he has four to his credit with a T4 at Mexico being his best as his success has stemmed from his strong approach game and his accuracy off the tee. He has one career win which was at the Wyndham Championship last year with Sedgefield Country Club being a correlating course and coupled with good recent form, look for more good things.
Sepp StrakaOdds: Win 4,000 ~ Top Five 650 ~ Top Ten 280Payout: Win 20,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,625.00 ~ Top Ten 700.00
Straka was a popular sleeper pick last week with his elite tee to green game where he is ranked No. 8 but he struggled off the tee and with his short game costing him the weekend but the rest could be good for him this week. In 11 starts this year, he has seven top 15 finishes including a win at The American Express, and he has gained strokes on approach in 10 of his 11 starts. Additionally, he has gained more than 8% against the field in driving accuracy while finishing negative only once. He missed the cut here in 2023 when entering in poor form but that was sandwiched in-between a T3 in 2022 and a T5 last year with exceptional putting on these small greens.
Daniel BergerOdds: Win 4,500 ~ Top Five 750 ~ Top Ten 320Payout: Win 22,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,875.00 ~ Top Ten 800.00
We used Berger at the Valero Texas Open two weeks back and he finished T30 no thanks to a Saturday 77 and is coming off a solid week at The Masters with a T21, his seventh straight top 30 finish. In all of those events, he has lost strokes in only one category once, Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee at THE PLAYERS Championship. He comes in No. 10 in Strokes Gained: Total and No. 10 in Driving Accuracy and had his best approach tournament of the season last week and if his putter remains consistent, he will contend. Because of his injury and not qualifying, he has not played here the last two years but prior to that, he finished T3, T13 and T21 in 2020-2022.
Results through The Masters (11 Tournaments):
Win: -7,000Top Five: -3,500Top Ten: -2,025Top 20 Masters: -90
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