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Breaking Down The NBA Playoffs

by AAA Sports

Friday, May 31, 2024

We figured Boston, which was the chalk since the beginning of the season and never took its foot off the accelerator through the In-Season event, the All-Star Game, and post-season. We didn’t figure Dallas, which has caught fire at the perfect time in its rampage through a very tough Western Conference. So what exactly will we have in store once the TV schedule-mandated week-long interregnum ends on June 6?A few interesting storylines:KYRIE IRVING – Has it really been half a decade since Irving promised Celtics fans that he would re-sign with Boston, then half-heartedly went through the motions in the playoffs before grabbing his BFF Kevin Durant and bolting for Brooklyn? For a while Irving avoided playing in Boston, but that option is no longer available and he’ll have to face the blood-thirsty Boston fans at least twice.BACKCOURT vs. BACKCOURT – Speaking of Irving, has there ever been a better offensive backcourt than Irving and Luka Doncic? Maybe Steph Curry and Klay Thompson? Doncic and Irving have become the best finishers in the Association. If you doubt that, check with the Timberwolves, who could have taken control of the WCF early on if they had gotten anything at all from Karl-Anthony Towns. With Towns’s no-show, the burden was on Anthony Edwards and he was no match for the Doncic-Irving Machine. But the Dallas backcourt will have its hands full with Boston’s, with veterans Derek White and Jrue Holiday by far the best defensive twosome in the league. Will Boston double-team Doncic and/or Irving? Look for Jaylen Brown defending Irving, giving Boston a size edge at one spot, while Jrue Holiday battles with a Maverick big.KIDD vs. MAZZULLA – The Celtics have so much talent, there hasn’t been much for Mazzulla to do; hence the nickname Sidecar Joe. Boston has had relatively few close games, and the Celts haven’t always shined down the stretch like they did the ECF against Indiana. But Mazzulla has had luck on his side (Jimmy Butler, Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen and Tyrese Haliburton all missed playoff time), and it doesn’t hurt having Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in the lineup. Will Jason Kidd have an advantage if things get antsy last in games?AS FOR BROWN – Word is that the ECF MVP has not always been the most popular guy in the locker room, with the vets not liking JB’s refusal to defer to them early in his career. That slate has now been officially wiped clean, and now there is talk that Brown has even surpassed Tatum in the roster hierarchy, or may do that soon if Tatum doesn’t grow eyes in the back of his head. That might be a stretch, but there’s no doubt that Brown is a two-way (yes, he can D it up, too) beast.     WITHER PORZINGIS? – No one seems to know where the 7-foot-3 center stands in his rehab from a lower leg injury, and the Celtics aren’t talking. Even if he’s ready to go in Game 1 of the Finals, Porzingis will have been sidelined for 38 days. Will his shot think it’s still on vacation whenever KP gets back on the court? Will he have enough stamina to effectively deal with Dallas bigs Derek Lively and Daniel Gafford? Are the Celtics better off just keeping him on the sidelines and spotting him deeper in the rotation?EARLY ODDSGame 1 – The Celtics have been listed at -6 for the opener, although the number might move slightly if Porzingis is ruled in. The O/U number is 214.5. Note that the final game of the Boston/Indiana series went under, but the Celtics’ previous five games (three vs. Indiana, two vs. Cleveland) all went over. Similarly, five of Dallas’s last six games (including the WC semi-clincher vs. Oklahoma City) went over. No surprises in the listed odds for Finals MVP, with Jayson Tatum (-130) the favorite as he has been all season, followed by Luka Doncic (+200), Jaylen Brown (+600) and Kyrie Irving (+2400). The only real value there looks to be with Irving. Odds on a Celtics sweep -- +650. Odds on a Mavericks sweep -- +2300. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/31/2024

by Big Al Staff

Friday, May 31, 2024

The Friday sports card features NHL and MLB action.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 5 of the Western Conference finals. The Dallas Stas host the Edmonton Oilers on TNT and truTV at 8:40 p.m. ET. The Oilers evened this series at 2-2 with their -2 victory at home on Thursday. They have won four of their last six games. The Stars had won two games in a row in this series before the loss in Game 4. Dallas is a -130 money-line favorite, with the total set at 6 (all odds from DatKings unless indicated otherwise). The Friday card in Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Chicago Cubs play at home against the Cincinnati Reds at 2:20 p.m. ET. Javier Assad takes the ball for the Cubs to pitch against Graham Ashcraft. Chicago is a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the St. Louis Cardinals at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Phillies tap Aaron Nola to pitch against Miles Mikolas for the Cardinals. Philadelphia is a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 8.The Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays at 7:0 p.m. ET. Ranger Suarez goes to the mound to face the Rays' Aaron Ciale. Baltimore is a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.The Toronto Blue Jays play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays send out Jose Berrios to go against a Pirates starting pitcher yet to be named. Toronto is a -165 money-line favorite at NtMGM with a total of 8.Four MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox are at home against the Detroit Tigers on Apple TV+. Tanner Houck goes to the mound to battle against Kenta Maeda of the Tigers. Boston is a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Cleveland Guardians host the Washington Nationals. The Guardians tap Tanner Bibee to duel against the Nationals' Patrick Corbin. Cleveland is a -218 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The New York Mets play at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets to duel against Jordan Montgomery for the Diamondbacks. New York is a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Texas Rangers travel to Miami to play the Marlins. The Rangers turn to Jose Urena to go against the Marlins' Sixto Sanchez. Texas is a -122 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. The Atlanta Braves are at home against the Oakland A's at 7:20 p.m. ET. Reynaldo Lopez goes to the hill for the Braves to face J.P. Sears for the A's. Three more MLB games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The San Diego Padres play in Kansas City against the Royals. The Padres send out Dylan Cease to battle the Royals' Michael Wacha. San Diego is a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros host the Minnesota Twins. Ronel Blanco gets the ball for the Astros to face Pablo Lopez for the Brewers. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Chicago White Sox. The Brewers turn to Tobias Myers to battle against the White Sox's Erick Fedde. Milwaukee is a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Two MLB games start at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the Colorado Rockies. Walker Buehler gets the start for the Dodgers to go against Dakota Hudson for the Rockies. Los Angeles is a -298 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners host the Los Angeles Angels on Apple TV+. The Mariners turn to Bryan Woo to face an Angels' starting pitcher yet to be named. The New York Yankees are in San Francisco to play the Giants at 10:15  p.m. ET. Jordan Hicks pitches for the Giants against a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Yankees.

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Czech Republic Win Gold at IIHF World Championships

by William Burns

Thursday, May 30, 2024

The IIHF World Championships came to an end on Sunday as the Czechs claimed the gold medal against Switzerland behind some terrific home fan support. It was a very successful tournament as we saw plenty of top quality hockey involving some of the best players in the World from the NHL and other top leagues. While the Swiss ended up with silver, it was still a very impressive showing from the "Playground of Europe." Finishing in third place was Sweden, as they defeated Canada in the bronze medal game.  How the Tournament Went: Even though both the United States & Canada didn't have their best of the best come, it's always a disappointment if they aren't playing for Gold. The USA just weren't very strong from the opening match. Finishing without a medal, the US ended up losing to the Czechs (who went on to win) in the Quarter-Finals. Don't get me wrong, it was a close game. But, they should be winning that game and moving on. Canada, on the other hand, lost a shoot-out to Switzerland in the Semi-Finals. It was a heartbreak as probably their best player in the tournament, Dylan Cozens, was denied by the Swiss goalie (Leonardo Genoni) to extend the shoot-out, who was excellent throughout the whole tournament. Talking about Switzerland, they were led by their NHL superstars. Captain Roman Josi had Kevin Fiala, Nico Hischier & Nino Niederreiter with him as they battled. As mentioned earlier, the goaltender Leonardo Genoni absolutely stood on his head, especially against Canada. It's always difficult to lose in the big one, but this is a team that should be very proud of what they accomplished with the Silver Medal. The Czech Republic, led by David Pastrnak, won a battle in that Gold Medal Game. When the Boston Bruins got eliminated from the playoffs, every Czech hockey fan was waiting for the moment that the goal scoring machine would announce that he was coming. Of course, Pastrnak said yes and ended up being the hero for his home country. A goal with just over 10 minutes to go would end up being the game winner and the fans went absolutely nuts. Talk about an awesome experience. Terrific host country. Sweden and Finland were disappointed as well, especially the Fins. They actually played each other in the Quarter-Finals, in a game that was decided by an Overtime winner by Joel Eriksson Ek (Minnesota Wild Forward.) Sweden went on the lose to Czechia, but beat Canada to at least stand tall on the podium. With their talent, a goal medal was expected for them as well. Finland however, needs to get back to the top as they didn't look all that competitive in some of the group stage matches. What's Next? With all of this up and coming talent around the World, maybe International Hockey will finally get back to being what it used to be. NHL players are now allowed back in the Olympics (in 2026 and 2030,) which should gain huge viewership once again. Even more of the stars should be out for those events as the Olympics are as big as it gets. However, next year's Hockey World Championships promises to be just as good, if not better than this years. We are in a golden age of hockey right now and it's only going to get better! Speaking of the "Golden age of Hockey," we're down to the last four teams in the NHL playoffs. Both Conference Finals series are coming down to the wire. As of Thursday, May 30th, here are the odds (via. DraftKings) to win the cup! Florida Panthers +235 Dallas Stars +255 Edmonton Oilers +275 New York Rangers +370 If I had to pick one of those teams to win at the moment, it would have the be the Dallas Stars at +255. They look very strong and will get to play two of the last three games in this series against EDM at home (if necessary.) 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/30/2024

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, May 30, 2024

The Thursday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with Game 5 of the Western Conference finals. The Dallas Mavericks host the Minnesota Timberwolves on TNT and truTV at 8:35 p.m. ET. The Timberwolves extended this series to a fifth game with their 105-100 upset victory as a 1.5 road underdog on Tuesday. Dallas had won five games in a row before that loss. They hold a 3-1 series lead. The Mavericks are a 5-point favorite, with the total set at 209.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Florida Panthers travel to New York to play the Rangers on ESPN at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Panthers evened this series at 2-2 with their 3-2 win in overtime on Tuesday. They have won six of their last nine games. New York had won the previous two games in this series in overtime. Florida is a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Thursday card in Major League Baseball has eight games on its schedule. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Oakland A’s play at Tampa Bay to play the Rays. Neither team has yet to declare their starting pitcher. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Kansas City Royals. Chris Paddack takes the ball for the Twins to pitch against Brady Singer for the Royals. Minnesota is a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers are at home against the Chicago Cubs. The Brewers tap Colin Rea to battle against the Cubs’ Jameson Taillon. Milwaukee is a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.The Seattle Mariners host the Houston Astros at 4:10 p.m. ET. Logan Gilbert goes to the mound for the Mariners to face Spencer Arrighetti for the Astros. Seattle is a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Two MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Detroit Tigers. The Red Sox turn to Nick Pivetta to duel against the Tigers’ Jack Flaherty. Boston is a -122 money-line fate with an over/under of 8. The Arizona Diamondbacks are in New York to play the Mets. Zac Gallen grabs the ball for the Diamondbacks to battle against Christian Scott for the Mets. Arizona is a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5.The Atlanta Braves are at home against the Washington Nationals at 7:20 p.m. ET. The Braves turn to Reynaldo Lopez to go against the Nationals’ Trevor Williams at 7:20 p.m. ET. Atlanta is a -225 money-line favorite with an over/under total of 8.5. The New York Yankees visit Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET. Carlos Rodon goes to the hill for the Yankees to go against Patrick Sandoval for the Angels. New York is a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5.

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May Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

May Starting Pitching AL Overachievers There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of May, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four American League starters which you’ll likely want to likely avoid supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable. Triston McKenzie – Cleveland Guardians Triston McKenzie broke into the big leagues with big strikeout counts in 2020 and 2021 but so far in 2024 his K/9 is 8.5, the lowest of his career. This season and last season, walks have been a huge problem for McKenzie, including allowing 34 in just over 57 innings this season. McKenzie had a few rough April starts but he has a 3.06 ERA in six starts in May as Cleveland continues to control the AL Central. McKenzie has a 5.57 FIP in that span however and only six percent of his baserunners have scored. His BABIP is May is just .205 and while McKenzie has posted a low BABIP throughout his career, that is an exceptionally low mark. McKenzie has allowed 11 home runs in 11 starts and he has already faced the White Sox twice, in addition to facing the Athletics and Rockies for several favorable early season draws.  Marcus Stroman – New York Yankees After two solid seasons with the Cubs, Stroman received a two-year deal with the Yankees and so far the move has been a success with Stroman pitching well and the Yankees leading the AL East. Stroman’s numbers are pretty similar to the past two seasons in terms of strikeouts and walks, but his ERA is just 2.76 thanks a drop in his BABIP and a big rise in his strand rate with only 15 percent of baserunners scoring against him. A strong New York bullpen has helped to leave runners on the bases, but Stroman simply has had some good luck in the first two months of the season, particularly in May with a 1.78 ERA in his last five starts even with a weak 6.2 K/9. Stroman has stranded 94 percent of his baserunners in May, a rate that will be impossible to keep up over the rest of the season.  Michael Lorenzen – Texas Rangers A useful option as a starter or reliever and with some pinch hitting potential, Lorenzen has carried his weight bouncing around the league the past few seasons. He famously threw a no-hitter with the Phillies last August but eventually landed back in the bullpen. Due to injuries elsewhere in the rotation Lorenzen has been counted on to take regular turns in the Texas rotation and the results have been good with a 3.35 ERA in eight starts. Lorenzen has a worse than 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season and his month of May includes a 2.87 ERA but a 4.34 FIP. Lorenzen has turned in three quality starts in a row, but he has rarely had sustained runs of starting success in his career, something that isn’t likely to change at age 32. He recently left his last start with knee cramping and his season could unravel further from there.  Griffin Canning – Los Angeles Angels It has been a miserable season for the Angels but in the month of May, Griffing Canning has put together a run of five solid starts, pitching at least five innings while allowing three or fewer runs in each. He struggled mightily in April and still owns a 5.08 season ERA but in May it was just 2.60. His FIP in May was 5.30, however, seventh highest among all qualified AL starters. Canning still has poor strikeout and walk rates and few pitchers have a worse HR/9 than Canning in his career at 1.56, a rate he has even topped so far this season. Canning has only had 36 percent groundballs this season and is on pace for his worst K/9 in his career at just 6.5, compared to 9.0 in his career. Canning and the Angels won’t command strong valuations, but the recent run of success is more than likely to be short positive blip on Canning’s season.  

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May Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

May Starting Pitching NL Overachievers There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of May, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four National League starters which you’ll likely want to likely avoid supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable.  Bailey Falter – Pittsburgh Pirates There has been some recent enthusiasm and improved play from the Pirates with the arrival of rookie Paul Skenes but Bailey Falter has also posted good numbers in the rotation. Falter was among MLB’s worst starters in 2023 eventually landing with the Pirates after being traded by the Phillies after being unable to match his solid 2022 results and being relegated back to AAA. Falter has a 3.55 ERA so far for Pittsburgh this season including a 2.73 ERA in the month of May. That success came with a 3.4 K/9 in the month as his FIP is 5.14. His BABIP is just .198 in his four May starts for incredible fortune. Falter has made three of his last four starts at home as well while posting a 4.73 season ERA on the road.  Andrew Abbott – Cincinnati Reds A second round pick in 2021, Andrew Abbott is a prized young left-handed starter for the Reds that delivered good numbers in his rookie season last year with a 3.87 ERA and a 9.9 K/9 in 21 starts. This season his ERA is down to 3.29 but in the month of May Abbott had a 5.06 FIP next to a 3.30 ERA. For the season his K/9 has fallen to just 6.6 and he has allowed 11 home runs in 11 starts. Abbott’s season includes road starts in several favorable pitching venues and he has stronger numbers away from home for the season. Abbott did not pitch well in his most recent start with six runs allowed and over his last four starts he has only 11 strikeouts in 25 innings of work.  Javier Assad – Chicago Cubs A surprise success story for the Cubs, Javier Assad has great numbers through his first 11 starts in 2024. He did take his first loss of the season in his last start in St. Louis put he has a 2.42 ERA in the month of May. Somehow Assad has avoided damage even with a 4.9 BB/9 in May as his BABIP is just .243 and he owns an over 88 percent strand rate. Assad has pitched well against a few contenders posting quality starts at Wrigley Field against the Brewers and Braves in May but there is little to suggest Assad can continue an All-Star caliber pace throughout the season.  Austin Gomber – Colorado Rockies Austin Gomber has brought his ERA down to 2.76 for the season with an impressive run in May, posting an 0.68 ERA in four starts. Gomber was dealt to the Rockies as part of the Nolan Arenado trade in 2021 and after a solid first season with the Rockies he has not had much success the past two seasons. The difference so far this season is a .232 BABIP compared to his career average of .293. He has also stranded nearly 88 percent of his baserunners this season compared to a career average of just over 71 percent. Gomber pitched on the road in three of his four starts and faced struggling Pittsburgh and Oakland lineups in that run as well. The run of success for Gomber is likely to be short-lived and his ERA is likely to climb closer to his current FIP of 4.60 by season’s end. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/29/2024

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

The Wednesday sports card features NHL and MLB action.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 4 of the Western Conference finals. The Edmonton Oilers host the Dallas Stars on TNT and truTV at 8:40 p.m. ET. The Stars took a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series after their 5-3 victory in Edmonton on Monday. They have won six of their last eight games. The Oilers have lost the last two games in this series. Edmonton is a -130 money-line favorite, with the total set at 6 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Wednesday card in Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Detroit Tigers play at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates in the opening game of their doubleheader at 12:40 p.m. ET. Tarik Skubal takes the ball for the Tigers to pitch against Jared Jones for the Pirates. Detroit is a -150 money-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 7. The Cincinnati Reds play at home against the St. Louis Cardinals at 1:10 p.m. ET. The Reds tap Frankie Montas to face the Cardinals’ Andre Palate. Cincinnati is a -118 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5. The Texas Rangers are at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks at 2:35 p.m. ET. Dane Dunning takes the mound for the Rangers to battle against Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. Texas is a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Pirates take on the Tigers in the second game of their doubleheader at 3:40 p.m. ET. Pittsburgh taps Paul Skenes to face a Detroit starting pitcher yet to be named. The Tigers are a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to San Francisco to play the Giants at 3:45 p.m. ET. Ranger Suarez gets the start for the Phillies to go against Kyle Harrison for the Giants. Philadelphia is a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 8. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET. San Diego hosts Miami, with the Padres turning to Yu Darvish to pitch against the Marlins’ Braxton Garrett. The Padres are a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Los Angeles plays at New York with the James Paxton pitching for the Dodgers against David Peterson for the Mets. The Dodgers are a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Baltimore Orioles play at home against the Boston Red Sox at 6:35 p.m. ET. The Orioles send out Corbin Burnes to duel against the Red Sox’s Kutter Crawford. Baltimore is a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Tampa Bay Rays are at home against the Oakland A’s at 6:50 p.m. ET. Ryan Pepiot gets the assignment for the Rays to face Joey Estes for the A’s. Tampa Bay is a -185 money-line favorite at BetMGM with a total of 8. The Atlanta Braves host the Washington Nationals at 7:20 p.m. ET. The Braves send Spencer Schwellenbach to the hill to pitch against the Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore. Atlanta is a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Three more MLB games begin at 7:40 p.m. ET. Minnesota plays at home against Kansas City, with Bailey Ober pitching for the Twins against Seth Lugo for the Royals. The Twins are a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Toronto is in Chicago, with the Blue Jays turning to Alex Manoah to battle against the White Sox’s Chris Flexen. The Blue Jays are a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. Chicago visits Milwaukee, with Shota Imanaga getting the ball for the Cubs to face Bryse Wilson for the Brewers. The Cubs are a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Cleveland Guardians visit Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET. The Guardians turn to Logan Allen to pitch against the Rockies’ Tyler Blach. Cleveland is a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 11. The New York Yankees play in Los Angeles against the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET. Luis Gil goes to the hill for the Yankees to duel against Tyler Anderson for the Angels. The Yankees are a -185 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners are at home against the Houston Astros at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Mariners turn to George Kirby to battle against the Astros’ Justin Verlander. Seattle is a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.

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Betting NFL Futures for the 2025 Super Bowl

by Wayne Root

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

NFL FUTURES RUNDOWN  Want to wager on your team to win the Super Bowl? To make the playoffs? To finish with a certain number of victories? You can do all that—and much more—with NFL futures. NFL futures betting allows sports bettors to wager on long-term outcomes of the NFL season before and during the course of the season. This popular method of betting on sports typically includes predictions on team performances, potential division champions, conference winners, the Super Bowl champions and other popular futures markets. BETTING NFL FUTURES When it comes to betting NFL futures, future bets offer an exciting opportunity to predict outcomes well in advance. Oddsmakers set NFL futures odds early in the summer and give constant updates thru preseason, and these odds change throughout the regular season based on team performances.  Currently, these are the top four listed to win the 2025 Superbowl:Kansas City +650San Francisco +650Baltimore +1100Detroit + 1300Every team has a price. And team prices vary depending on where you bet.  2023 conference champions have strangleholds on their respective divisions: The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers hold commanding positions over their divisions, with oddsmakers projecting more than a 70% implied probability for each to be crowned division champs in 2024. MONEY BEING TIED UP Money is tied up for a long time – When you make a futures bet you commit your money until the bet is resolved – often weeks or months. If that money were in your bankroll you could bet it several times over, and as long as you are a long term winning bettor you would have an expectation to produce profit with those bets. Since the money is tied up, though, it is exposed to risk while not earning any return. That means that there is an opportunity cost involved in future bets – you need to consider not just the return on the bet you are making, but also the lost potential return from the bets you could make if you weren’t invested in the futures bet. This opportunity cost means that you need to have an even higher payoff on your futures bet to make it worthwhile. LOCK IN LINE PRICES One of the most engaging aspects of NFL futures is the opportunity to secure potentially high payouts. The odds are set well in advance of the season’s start and as variables change — such as player injuries, trades and winning streaks — so too do the odds. This dynamic nature keeps bettors invested throughout the season, providing ongoing engagement with each shift in the competitive landscape. ARE FUTURE BETS WISE? Future bets – a bet on whether a team is going to win a league or event that is usually going to be held well in the future – are something that books absolutely love to post and take action on. There’s a pretty simple reason for that – they are mostly horrible bets, so the books make a killing on them. They are exposed to some risk if a longshot comes through at a huge price, but that doesn’t often happen. Most of the time they get to collect a large amount of money, use it as they want for months until the outcome of the bet is determined, and then pay out far less than they brought in. It really couldn’t be better for them. NFL SUPER BOWL FUTURE ODDS NFL Super Bowl futures odds are a cornerstone of sports betting, allowing bettors to place wagers on which team they believe will win the most highly-anticipated sporting event in the United States, the Super Bowl. Futures betting odds are available year-round from top betting sites and fluctuate based on team performances, player injuries, trades and public betting trends. Super Bowl futures odds offer a unique opportunity for bettors to lock in prices on a team’s chance to win the championship well before the event occurs. This common futures bet type requires not just a passion for football but a strategic approach to understanding the dynamics of the NFL. WHAT INFLUENCES FUTURE ODDS Team Performance: Regular season and playoff performances give a clear indication of a team’s potential to compete for the championship. Player Impact: The health and performance of key players can significantly alter a team’s odds. For instance, the injury or return of a star quarterback like Patrick Mahomes might lead to dramatic changes in odds. Off-season Moves: Trades and free agency acquisitions can boost a team’s odds if they are perceived to strengthen the roster. The acquisition of a high-impact player such as Aaron Rodgers by the Denver Broncos serves as a prime example.  Historical Trends: Some teams, like the New England Patriots, have a track record of performing well under pressure and in playoff scenarios, which can sway the odds in their favor. STAY INFORMED  Bettors need to stay informed about NFL developments throughout the season and the offseason to make the most of Super Bowl futures. This form of betting is not only about predicting the winner but also about knowing when to place a bet based on value odds. WHEN TO MAKE FUTURES BET Most bettors place NFL futures wagers before the start of the regular season, but that’s certainly not required. In fact, most futures markets remain open at NFL betting sites throughout the entire season, with sportsbooks constantly adjusting odds based on player and/or team performances, significant injuries, trades and betting liability. THINK LIKE A SHARP To kickstart your thinking for the season – I’ve talked to a few guys who like to study futures odds as a way to start their preparations for the upcoming season. The odds give them a basic indication of what oddsmakers think of the coming season, and by doing their own research they can find the situations where they agree with the oddsmakers, and those where they differ significantly. The areas where they differ need to be researched more, but they could represent a nice value. Casual bettors often are drawn to Super Bowl futures so they can bet on their favorite team and turn a tidy profit if that team caps a magical season with a championship. BETTING LIKE A SHARP Sharp bettors get involved in the Super Bowl futures market for one reason: value. If they believe strongly that oddsmakers are selling particular teams short, savvy bettors will pounce on them. For much of the 2023-24 season, the San Francisco 49ers were favored to win the Super Bowl, especially when the Kansas City Chiefs slumped during the second half of the season. Bettors who jumped on them late in the year got better odds than you would have gotten earlier in the season. SEASON WIN TOTALS Season win totals are a popular type of NFL futures betting where bettors predict the total number of wins a team will secure during their regular season games. Sportsbooks set an over/under on wins for each team and bettors can wager whether a team will win more (over) or fewer (under) games than the listed total. This form of betting requires a deep understanding of each team’s strengths, weaknesses and potential for the upcoming season. Factors such as the difficulty of the team’s schedule, off-season roster changes, injuries and historical performance play critical roles in influencing these decisions. ANALYSIS OF LAST YEAR For bettors, analyzing team performance trends from previous seasons can be invaluable. Consideration of a team’s draft picks and any changes in coaching staff can also provide insights into potential improvements or declines in team performance.  Trends of note: The last 11 Super Bowl winners have won at least 11 regular season games, including the defending champion Chiefs, who went 11-6 in 2023. Think Kansas City can win its third straight Super Bowl in 2025? History suggests it’s unlikely, as no NFL team has ever won three consecutive Super Bowls. It’s also probably unwise to make a Super Bowl futures bet on a team that wasn’t very good last season. Since the 2009 campaign, only the Philadelphia Eagles (2017) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2020) hoisted the Lombardi Trophy after winning fewer than 10 games the previous season (both went 7-9). KEEP IT INTERESTING  There’s nothing wrong with putting a few bucks down to give yourself a rooting interest for the season, or to back your favorite boyhood squad. If you are doing this with a significant portion of your bankroll then you might be an idiot, but if the amounts are small then fun is as good a reason as any. REMEMBER THIS ABOUT BETTING FUTURES The risk is massive and almost impossible to calculate – Let’s say you are going to bet on NFL futures right now. You need to factor in several things that you can’t really know about with any certainty – who is going to start in any open positions, how are the rookies and the free agents going to fit in, how are any new coaches going to work out, how are the teams your team is playing looking, who is going to get hurt on your team and for how long, and on and on and on and on. Any amount of uncertainty increases the risk on a bet, and therefore increases the amount of return you require to compensate for that risk. Because of the complexity of risk assessment it is incredibly easy to overestimate your edge in futures bets.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/28/2024

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, May 28, 2024

The Tuesday sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with Game 4 of the Western Conference finals. The Dallas Mavericks host the Minnesota Timberwolves on TNT and truTV at 8:35 p.m. ET. The Mavericks took a 3-0 series lead with their 116-107 victory as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. They have won five straight games. The Timberwolves have lost six of their last eight games. Dallas is a 2-point favorite, with the total set at 210.5.The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Florida Panthers play at home against the New York Rangers on ESPN at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Rangers took a 2-1 lead in this series with their 5-4 win in overtime on Sunday. They have won three of their last four games. The Panthers have lost three of five games. Florida is a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Tuesday card in Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to New York to play the Mets in the opening game of their doubleheader at 4:10 p.m. ET as a -198 money-line road favorite with the total set at 8.5. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the Boston Red Sox at 6:35 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Detroit Tigers host the Pittsburgh Pirates as a money-line favorite at -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. The Cincinnati Reds play at home against the St. Louis Cardinals as a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Tampa Bay Rays play at home against the Oakland A's at 6:50 p.m. ET. The Dodgers battle the Mets in the second game of their doubleheader at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -198 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves host the Washington Nationals at 7:20 p.m. ET. as a -250 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Three more MLB games begin at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Kansas City Royals play in Minnesota against the Twins as a -125 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The Toronto Blue Jays are in Chicago to play the White Sox as a -205 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Chicago Cubs as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Arizona Diamondbacks visit Texas to play the Rangers at 8:05 p.m. ET. The Cleveland Guardians play in Colorado against the Rockies as a -148 money-line road favorite with an o/unde of 10.5. The New York Yankees are in Los Angeles to play the Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. Two more MLB games start at 9:40 p.m. ET. The San Diego Padres are at home against the Miami Marlins as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Seattle Mariners host the Houston Astros as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies travel to San Francisco to play the Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET.  

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5 Starting Pitchers Who Should Experience Positive Regression

by Kyle Hunter

Monday, May 27, 2024

I recently looked at five starting pitchers who should experience negative regression. Let’s take a look at a few who should experience positive regression. Keep in mind that positive regression doesn’t mean a player is improving, it just means that a player is moving back to its previously expected value (mean). With advanced statistics we can get a pretty good picture of guys who could experience this. Here are five to keep an eye on. These are not in any particular order. Patrick Sandoval (5.60 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 4.02 SIERA) Sandoval has a strikeout rate of 23.1%. He is elite at missing bats. Opponents have an unsustainable batting average on balls in play of .348. He has left only 62.3% of runners on base. The knock on Sandoval is he walks too many batters. Sandoval isn’t an elite pitcher, but he is clearly better than his 5.60 ERA. A potential buy low candidate here. Jack Flaherty (3.84 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 2.27 SIERA) Flaherty has been up and down throughout his career. He is throwing the ball extremely well for the Tigers this season. Flaherty is striking out 11.95 batters per nine innings. Opponents have a .340 batting average on balls in play. The Tigers in general are much more competitive than they have been, and I think Flaherty is a pitcher to watch the rest of the way. His velocity is solid and his walk rate is just 1.33 walks per nine innings. Excellent.  Tyler Glasnow (3.09 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and 2.60 SIERA) Glasnow has top of the line stuff. His fastball averages 96.3 mph and his slider and curveball are tremendous strikeout pitches. Glasnow has had some bad luck in recent starts, so if someone wants to get too low on him I would be happy to buy stock. Glasnow has a superb 0.91 WHIP on the season. His hard hit batted ball percentage is below 30%.  George Kirby (4.33 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 3.47 SIERA) Kirby is still a good young pitcher. He is only 26 so his prime is still ahead of him. Kirby was excellent in each of the last two seasons, but his numbers this year haven’t been as good. I expect him to bounce back. Kirby has elite ccontrol. He is walking less than one batter per nine innings. The lack of free passes is a huge boost to long term performance. He is great at inducing soft contact from hitters too. Kirby is someone I’ll look to back in certain spots going forward. Pablo Lopez (5.25 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 2.96 SIERA) Lopez is a great candidate for positive regression in the coming weeks and months. Lopez has a strikeout rate of a whopping 27.7%. He has an extremely low walk rate of 4.0%. His left on base rate is very low at 63.6% on the season. Lopez has a walk rate of less than one batter per nine innings in his last five starts. He has three walks and 32 strikeouts in that time. His home run rate allowed should come down, and he is still a quality pitcher. 

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How to Determine the Difference Between Sharp Action and Public

by Wayne Root

Monday, May 27, 2024

The Market Place:Like any marketplace, a buyer and seller agree on a price - in this case a line.  But knowing the line is only half the picture. Understanding the forces affecting line' movement (the volume of bets, percentage of bets on the home team and the percentage of bets on the away team) is essential in determining the true value of any line. We always check this data. That begins our public money vs sharp action analysis. Ticket percentage(s):Ticket percentage does not consider the amount risked on each ticket – it just counts each bet placed. If we compare the bet percentage and money percentage of the same team (for the same bet type), you’ll notice the sharp action if the figures aren’t similar.Public Money Ticket(s):From October through June, bettors and fans alike will have NBA basketball on their televisions almost every evening. With so many games available to bet on – how should you pick what to bet. Look at the money and bet-percentage splits, of course. This data is provided to you directly from sportsbooks ahead of games each night during the season so you can see where both the public money and percentage of tickets are concentrated for each game. This is our start to “follow the money”.What signals Sharp Action?A noticeable difference between a team’s bet and money percentages can help signal sharp action. In order to calculate this, just subtract their bet percentage from their money percentage. If the result is a positive number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on this team. If the result is a negative number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on the other team.While that’s not a 100% accurate formula to determine the sharp action, it can give you a general idea of where the money is.Money Percentage(s):Money percentages – or percent of the handle – refers to the total amount of money wagered on an event, often broken down by bet type.The money percentage pools all the money wagered on any game together, first sorting it by the type of bet (moneyline, spread, or total points scored), and then breaks down what percentage of the handle is bet on each side.Whichever side the handle is weighted to can signal the sharp action (if the amount of tickets on that side are low), or if that side is being heavily bet by the public (if the ticket percentage is high).Bet Percentage(s):Bet percentages, meanwhile, are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”. Tickets are just a term used for all the bets placed.To get the bet percentage, you look at all the bets placed (regardless of the amount of money risked on each one), again, sorting first by the type of bet, and then look at the percentage of tickets on each side of the game.This can help identify which side both high-stakes and low-stakes players are trending towards. Naturally, this works for football and basketball. Get that Information:Many sites will charge you to access this information, but some free options are available if you dig deep enough. Homework is mandatory for all those that are successful. Don’t be that “other” guy. Do the work or follow us. Good Luck,Wayne Allyn Root

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and MLB Previews and Odds - 05/27/2024

by Big Al Staff

Monday, May 27, 2024

The Monday Memorial Day sports card features NBA, NHL, and MLB action.The National Basketball Association continues the playoff season with Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Boston Celtics play in Indiana to play the Pacers on ESPN and ESPN2 at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Celtics took a 3-0 series lead with their 114-111 victory at Indiana as a 7-point road favorite on Saturday. They have won six straight games and ten of their last 11 games. The Pacers have lost four of six games. Boston is an 8-point road favorite, with the total set at 222.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).The National Hockey League playoffs continue with Game 3 of the Western Conference finals. The Edmonton Oilers host the Dallas Stars on TNT and truTV at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Stars evened this series at a game apiece with their 3-1 win at home on Friday. They have won five of their last seven games. The Oilers had won three games in a row before that loss. Edmonton is a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 5.5.The Monday card in Major League Baseball has 11 games on its schedule. The Baltimore Orioles play at home against the Boston Red Sox at 1:05 p.m. ET. Cole Irvin takes the ball for the Orioles to pitch against Cooper Criswell for the Red Sox. Baltimore is a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 2:10 p.m. ET. Minnesota plays at home against Kansas City, with the Twins sending out Joe Ryan to battle the Royals’ Alec Marsh. The Twins are a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Toronto plays in Chicago, with Chris Bassitt taking the hill for the Blue Jays to face Nick Nastrini for the White Sox. The Blue Jays are a -192 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5.Five MLB games start at 4:10 p.m. ET. Milwaukee is at home against Chicago, with the Brewers giving the ball to Robert Gasser to pitch against the Cubs’ Justin Steele. The Brewers are a -125 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Cleveland is in Colorado, with Xzavion Curry taking the hill for the Guardians to duel against Austin Gomber for the Rockies. The Guardians are a -135 money-line road favorite with a total of 10.5. Los Angeles visits New York with the Dodgers sending out Gavin Stone to battle against the Mets’ Tylor Megill. The Dodgers are a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Cincinnati hosts St. Louis with Nick Lodolo taking the ball for the Reds to face Lance Lynn for the Cardinals. The Reds are a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Atlanta plays at home against Washington, with the Braves turning to Charlie Morton to go against the Nationals' Mitchell Parker. Atlanta is a -198 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Philadelphia Phillies play in San Francisco against the Giants at 5:05 p.m. ET. Taijuan Walker takes the mound for the Phillies to pitch against Blake Snell for the Giants. Philadelphia is a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The San Diego Padres are at home against the Miami Marlins at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Padres tap Michael King to pitch against Trevor Rogers for the Marlins. San Diego is a -185 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros are in Seattle to play the Mariners at 9:40 p.m. ET. Framber Valdez gets the ball for the Astros to face Bryce Miller for the Mariners. Houston is a -120 money-line road favorite at BetMGM with a total of 7.5.

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