by ASA, Inc.
Thursday, Jan 22, 2026
Warriors Win Total: Value in the Under 43.5
By ASA, Inc. – Jan 22nd 2026
The Golden State Warriors opened the 2025-26 season with a 47.5-win futures line, but after sitting at 25-20 through 45 games, the number has dropped to 43.5 on FanDuel—and we're investing on the under.
The biggest blow came with Jimmy Butler's season-ending injury. Ranking 8th in PER, Butler was averaging 20 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 4.9 APG as a two-way anchor. His loss creates a massive void in scoring, playmaking, and defense that the bench can't fill. Young players like Podziemski and Moody aren't ready for heavy minutes against top Western foes, dropping the offense from elite to average.
Trade help looks unlikely. The Warriors want to move Jonathan Kuminga, but demand is low—teams see him as high-upside, not win-now. Stuck with the current roster, their playoff odds sit at just 17% for the 8th seed in a loaded West.
The remaining schedule doesn't help: 7th-hardest in the league, with 20 of 37 games on the road. Road struggles have been real all season (8-13 SU), and tough stretches against the Lakers, Clippers, Mavericks, and Suns loom large.
Steph Curry remains a superstar, but at 37, he can't carry this team every night. Draymond Green is a shell of his former self—lowest rebounding and assists since 2013-14—exposing the frontcourt.
They need 19 wins in 37 games (.514 pace) to hit 44. Given the injury, brutal slate, and aging core, that's optimistic. Historical data shows teams losing a top-8 PER player mid-season drop 5-7 wins on average.
Bet the under 43.5 at FanDuel before the line moves.
