For the 15th straight summer, I invested time researching each NFL team to serve as the foundation for my handicapping in the fall and winter. What initially began as basic note-taking on some fundamental details for each team has become an arduous and detailed process for each team that derives from the reading and studying of multiple sources. Each NFL team now takes about two hours of preparation time as I add sources to my foundational work. To help document this work while crystallizing my thoughts for each team, I am providing a summary of each team, highlighted by a critical question that will go a long way in their success or failure. Here is the NFC.ARIZONA CARDINALS: There are reasons for optimism for the Cardinals in the third season under head coach Jonathan Gannon and general manager Monti Ossenfort. After only winning four games in each of the last two seasons, they doubled that win total last year with an 8-9 mark. The defense took a big step forward from perhaps the worst unit in the league to the middle of the pack. After ranking second-to-last by surrendering 26.8 Points-Per-Game in 2023-24, Arizona cut -4.5 PPG off that mark last year by holding their opponents to 22.3 PPG, ranking 15th in the league. This defense ranked last in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders (now FTN) — but they improved to 14th according to those analytics last season. Head coach Jonathan Gannon and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis did a fantastic job in scheming that group up despite a rash of injuries on that side of the ball. The Cardinals ranked 29th in the NFL with 72.9 adjusted games lost to injury last year. They set an NFL record with 38.8 adjusted games lost to injury on the interior of their defensive line. The coaching philosophy is to rotate defensive linemen — so getting back Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones, who missed 26 combined games, will help. Expectations remain high on former first-round pick Darius Robinson, who missed most of his rookie season due to injuries as well. Ossenfort made a big splash in the offseason by spending $180 million on free agents — and four of those new players are expecting to be new starters in the front seven on defense. Joining the splashy new arrivals of defensive end Calais Campbell and linebacker Josh Sweat are six rookies, as Ossenfort invested his first five draft picks on the defensive side of the ball. First round draft pick Walter Nolen III will immediately enter the rotation of a suddenly strong defensive line — and they may have gotten a steal in the second round with cornerback Will Johnson, who was a consensus first round talent out of Michigan before injuries last year dropped his value. On offense, Kyler Murray enjoyed his best season since 2021 as he continues to regain his form after recovering from the torn ACL that derailed his 2022 campaign. Arizona outscored their opponents by +1.2 net PPG and outgained them by +15.7 net Yards-Per-Game. But after a 6-4 start to the year, they faded down the stretch with five losses in their final seven games in what has become a consistent trend for this franchise. Since 2021, the Cardinals have a 23-22 record through the first nine weeks of the season but just a 12-27 mark the rest of the way — and that -.203 drop in winning percentage in the second half of the season is the worst decline in the league during that stretch. Failure to win close games remains much of the problem. Since 2019, when they drafted Murray, they have a 16-26-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession (16-21-1 with Murray healthy and on the field), the fourth-worst in the NFL. While Murray is not directly responsible for five of those losses, the losing record in those situations does correlate with his declining production in pressure situations. Murray ranked 12th in quarterback DVOA last season — but he dropped to 17th when facing pass rush pressure, 19th when playing in the fourth quarter or overtime, and 30th in third-and-long situations. Inconsistency was an issue for Murray before his injury, so this is not a new concern. After throwing 13 touchdown passes to just two interceptions in the first ten weeks of the season, he only had eight touchdown passes, but with nine interceptions the rest of the way. His 4.6 rush attempts per game last year were a career-low and perhaps an indication that he is less likely to offer a dual threat with his legs after that torn ACL. Considering that he ranked 26th in explosiveness in the passing game last year, the question will be asked what he does he really offer at the position, if he is no longer as potent a threat with his legs? Arizona has become more of a run-first team under Gannon and offensive coordinator Drew Petzing. If this team does not take a step forward this year, then moving on from Murray and his expensive contract will certainly become an option worth considering in the offseason. ATLANTA FALCONS: There is a dysfunction in the decision-making of this organization. As I wrote in my deep dive of this team last year, I didn’t mind the Kirk Cousins signing per se, nor the drafting of Michael Penix as the eighth pick in the draft (although I would have taken J.J. McCarthy). The issue was: why do both? I don’t know what the goal is if you take two dates to the prom. I know what the 1980s teen comedy goal would be — and the Falcons fell far for short of that by missing the playoffs for the sixth straight season with their 8-9 record. Cousins started alright with the Falcons going 6-3 — but it was shaky. When defenses finally realized blitzing him up the middle was cosmic death for the offense, he imploded. Now, he has a shoulder injury excuse from Week 10 to rely on … and I got a Jagermeister excuse for my prom night. Whatever. Cousins is done in Atlanta — but their failure to trade him in the offseason means a $10 million roster bonus hit in 2026 on top of the $40 million salary cap this year because the owner wanted to solve the darn quarterback problem. And just because Cousins is not the solution, does that mean Plan B is the solution? Penix only completed 58.1% of his passes last season with a Passer Rating of 78.9 — and his three starts were against the New York Giants, Washington, and Carolina, which had some of the worst defenses in the league. Yeah, he passes an eye test because we all want to believe — but those “get off my lawn” numbers pop up. The defense ranked 23rd or lower in Adjusted Sack Rate for the ninth straight season. After ranking 23rd in the NFL by surrendering 345.2 Yards-Per-Game, they are replacing defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, edge rusher Matthew Judon, and strong safety Justin Simmons. If you want to know where the Cousins' money was spent, start there. General manager Terry Fontenot finally addressed the pass rush by drafting Georgia linebacker Jalon Walker and then trading up for Tennessee linebacker James Pearce Jr. in the first round — but this whiffed of trying to cram for the final exam by pulling an all-nighter. Pearce had motivation questions with the Volunteers — and Fontenot swapped the ’25 second round pick and the 2026 first round pick to grab him. It’s just more WTF. Grab two quarterbacks, just solve that problem! Grab two first round edge rushers, just solve that problem. Kick the can on the ramifications. Admittedly, owner Arthur Blank is in the twilight of his life. Is this the way to run a business? Or a football team? Maybe it is, if time is short and you have not reached the playoffs in seven straight seasons. But please realize you are playing craps. CAROLINA PANTHERS: After losing seven of their first eight games, the Panthers went 4-5 in their final nine games during a stretch that included three one-possession losses to Philadelphia, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay. Was staying competitive with three playoff teams a sign that this team was beginning to turn the corner — or was it more of a dead-cat bounce from a franchise that none of their opponents were taking very seriously anymore? Bryce Young looked unplayable in the first two games of the season, which prompted second-year head coach Dave Canales. Andy Dalton took over under center — and it was only after he got into a car accident that Young got another chance in Week Eight. To his credit, Young returned with a new outlook and approach. In those final ten games, Young completed 61.8% of his passes with 15 touchdown passes and only six interceptions. After making only one throw designated as “Big-Time” by the analytics in the first two games, he registered 26 Big-Time throws in his last ten games, which ranked second in the NFL. He also ran the ball more by averaging 22.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game in those ten games, which was nearly double the 13.0 rushing YPG in the first two games of the season. It would not be the first time that a struggling prospect benefited from reassessing their craft after taking a seat on the sidelines. He made genuine improvements by being better in the pocket, improving his accuracy in medium-range passes, and he was solid in handling pressure. But are these compliments more a result of the bar dropping so low during his sophomore season? He still posted a Bad Throw Rate on 22.3% of his passes, which ranked second-to-last in the league. In those last ten games, he only averaged 6.6 adjusted Yards-Per-Attempt — but that may be a bigger indictment of the wide receiver room. At 5’10 and without a big arm, there are some throws he is not going to be able to make (like 10-15 yard out routes). The top seven offensive linemen from last year all return for a unit that made significant strides last year. Second-year general manager Dan Morgan drafted another wide receiver in the first round by taking Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, who has great hands and a tall 6’5 frame. Xavier Legette was a disappointment last year — but perhaps some of that was due to playing through a wrist injury, and he can see a growth spurt this year. But the defense was historically bad last year after surrendering the most points in league history. They gave up 404.5 total YPG, which resulted in 31.4 Points-Per-Game, which were both last in the NFL. The 179.8 rushing YPG they allowed was also a league-high. It did not help that their best defender, defensive tackle Derrick Brown, suffered a season-ending injury in the opening game. Much of the hope going into this year is that Brown’s healthy return will have an immediate impact before the four rookies drafted on that side of the ball begin to develop. But as I argued in my deep dive on this team last year, the Panthers were destined to get a visit from the Regression Gods after ranking fourth in the NFL by holding their opponents to 293.9 Yards-Per-Game in 2023-24. That appeared to be a number helped by Carolina’s negative game stats and anemic offense. Despite their two victories last year, they did not play a down in the fourth quarter where they enjoyed a lead. The deeper analytics exposed that Carolina ranked 26th in EPA per Play allowed and 20th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. That defense replaced many of their best players, including linebackers Brent Burns and Frankie Lulu, who combined for 49 pressures on the quarterback while being both strong run defenders. Optimists can find reasons to have hope. But all four of their victories down the stretch were against teams that would finish with losing records. They did get blown out by Dallas and Tampa Bay, with that rematch with the Buccaneers being interesting because their defense frustrated Young by blitzing him far less. Yes, the Panthers and Young were no longer dreadful — but does that mean they are close to being competitive? There still seems to be a dearth of talent on both sides of the football. This remains a franchise that has endured seven straight losing seasons and not made the playoffs since 2017.CHICAGO BEARS: The Bears started last season winning four of their first six games — and then the wheels fell off the proverbial wagon as they lost ten games in a row and finished the season with a 5-12 record. Third-year head coach Matt Eberflus fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron on November 12th. Passing game coordinator Thomas Brown was elevated to run the offense despite not having previous experience calling plays. When Eberflus was then fired after a Thanksgiving loss to Detroit, Brown’s new job responsibilities doubled by being named the interim head coach. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams barely had a chance given all this chaos. He played behind an offensive line that was last in the NFL by surrendering 68 sacks — and Pro Football Focus ranked that group as the worst unit in the league in pass blocking efficiency. In hindsight, Waldron was not the right mentor for Williams, despite having come from the Sean McVay coaching tree. Brown was overwhelmed. The passing game too often devolved into various screens or other quick passes designed primarily to protect their investment at quarterback. Considering everything, the fact that Williams passed for 3541 yards, rushed for 489 yards, and only threw six interceptions is encouraging. The assumption now is that Williams will get the best coaching possible now that the franchise hired the Lions’ wunderkind offensive coordinator Ben Johnson as their next head coach. I think the jury is still out on that question. Certainly, he is a good designer of plays and game plans. However, I worry that he can be too flashy at the expense of the best interests of the team. The play call asking wide receiver Jameson Williams to throw a surprise pass in the fourth quarter in their playoff loss against Washington demonstrated terrible judgment and a concerning predilection to rely on his genius play-calls to find success rather than putting his players in the best position to succeed. Detroit might win that game if Jared Goff executed that play rather than Williams predictably throwing an interception and keeping his team down two scoring possessions. Johnson certainly benefited from inheriting a smart, veteran quarterback in Goff, who had already played in a Super Bowl. But neither Johnson nor anyone on his offensive coaching staff has been directly involved in developing a young quarterback. His offensive coordinator is Declan Doyle, who is a protégé of Sean Payton. At least Doyle observed Payton’s work with Bo Nix as Denver’s tight ends coach. Just because Johnson draws up sweet plays does not mean he has the skills to mentor and oversee the improvement of a raw but inexperienced talent at quarterback. And we have no idea how his leadership skills will translate. He talks a big game, but there is a long list of cocky offensive coordinators whose schtick gets old very quickly when tasked with running a football team (Josh McDaniels comes to mind, and Chicago recently tried with this type with Matt Nagy). General manager Ryan Poles worked hard to improve the offensive line by signing All-Pro left guard Joe Thuney, along with center Drew Dalman and right guard Jonah Jackson (who played for Johnson in Detroit), while also drafting tackle Ozzy Trapilo in the second round — but this was not Poles’ first stab at upgrading that unit. There is an array of riches of potential targets in the passing game if Williams gets enough time — and if he improves his ability to read defenses after deferring from his first target. Former New Orleans head coach Dennis Allen takes over the defense. Adding a 23-year NFL coaching veteran with six years of head coaching experience at two stops should help stabilize the young coaching staff. Injuries played a role in the defense sputtering in the second half of the season. The Bears ranked 27th in the league by surrendering 354.2 total Yards-Per-Game with the biggest weakness being their run defense. Chicago allowed 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry, which resulted in them giving up 138.3 rushing YPG, ranking 28th in the league. If Allen can get that cleaned up, the Bears do have a talented secondary that thrived in the second half of the 2023-24 season. DALLAS COWBOYS: From their 82-year-old owner/President/General Manager to the seemingly hours of daily coverage in the Sports Hot Take Industrial Complex, the Cowboys have devolved into a franchise that is high on its own supply. Winning games seems to be besides the point, a worthy pursuit only if it will generate more clicks somewhere. Why take care of Micah Parsons, their best defensive player by far, and his impending new contract when dragging it out into August ensures a daily talking point? Win the news cycle! I identified Dallas as simply Flat Track Bullies who consistently got exposed in the postseason when playing better teams to explain their three-straight 12-5 seasons. After dropping to 7-10 last season, the Cowboys' brain trust is telling themselves the problem is somewhere between an unfortunate rash of injuries and with head coach Mike McCarthy. It simply cannot be the fault of the guy in his early 80s with three job titles still living off the fumes of a Super Bowl title won when he was 52 years old. With a new year comes a new advertising slogan. Last year, it was “all-in” which Jerry Jones defined, in practice, as signing only three free agents while losing five starters to the market. This year, the mantra is “selective aggressiveness,” which kinda rings like “sporadic dementia.” Perhaps “hyper delusion” is the most apt description for those expressing confidence that an offseason of overpaying an array of “second draft opportunities (guys Jones rated highly when they were coming into the league as rookies) and previously highly-drafted players. The one thing these newcomers in free agency is that they are all reclamation projects ranging from young talent coming off major injuries (running back Javonte Williams, middle linebacker Kenneth Murray) or aging veterans who just might have one or two seasons left in them (running back Miles Sanders, defensive end Dante Fowler, defensive tackle Solomon Thomas, defensive end Payton Turner, cornerback Kaiir Elam). See, because the Dallas Cowboys remain serious Super Bowl contenders, and I know this because I keep hearing it on my television. “Selective aggressiveness” is not a new concept unearthed by the latest incarnation of Artificial Intelligence 5.0; it’s merely rebranding what other GMs call “plugging holes.” The problem for Dallas is that they need to hit at least 50% on these reclamations to stay competitive. Gone are right guard Zack Martin (retirement), defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence (free agency), and underrated nickel back Jourdan Lewis (free agency). Starting cornerback Trevon Diggs is likely out for the season from the knee injury he suffered last year. The same story applies to starting linebacker DeMarvion Overshown. The trouble does not stop there. Second-year left tackle Tyler Guyton was riddled with penalties last year and significantly regressed last season. Starting defensive tackle Maxi Smith has been a bust. Quarterback Dan Prescott experienced another season spending significant time on the shelf due to an injury. As he has lost mobility over the years, he is morphing into some kind of gunslinger. One red flag from last season was that he threw into tight windows 21.3% of the time, the highest mark for any qualifying quarterback (Aidan O’Connell was the only other qualifying QB over 20% in that metric). Maybe the defense plays at the level it did from Week 10 when Parsons returned from injury, as they ranked 8th in the league in Defensive DVOA using the metrics of the Football Outsiders? The hope then is that Prescott stays healthy and regains his form from 2023 — and that the offense will be reignited with the acquisition of wide receiver George Pickens from Pittsburgh. Talent is not the question with Pickens — but he was a malcontent with the Steelers. Mike Tomlin grew tired of Antonio Brown, LeVeon Bell, and Diontae Johnson — and all those guys thrived when they were released from being a hostage in Pittsburgh, right? So what could go wrong with Pickens going to Dallas to play in Jerry’s World? And the individual deputized to keep Pickens in line is first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer, a guy who was not even calling plays as the offensive coordinator the last two seasons under McCarthy. Schottenheimer is going to modernize the offense with pre-snap motions and play-action passing — the things no other offense is deploying. I mean, I like Schottenheimer a bit more than the analytics folks who wanted to blame him for not Let(ting) Russ Cook when he was last an offensive coordinator in 2020 for Seattle. And some pre-snap motion and more play-action play calls can’t hurt. But this is a big jump. Apparently, he became the choice because the players wanted it. Perhaps the last thing the Cowboys need is a “player’s coach” right now. Certainly, part of the decision calculus in his anointment was that he would be completely subservient to the owner/President/GM. And I hate Schotty’s plan to call the plays on offense while taking over the responsibilities of running a football team (just learn how to do the job and make a good decision in your choice to delegate the play-calling on offense, but when there is so much supply getting everyone high in the building …). DETROIT LIONS: The Lions won the Regular Season World Championship last year by posting a 15-2 record while conducting a successful Revenge Tour which included a 47-9 victory at Dallas and a 40-34 win at San Francisco where head coach Dan Campbell gambled risking even more injuries was worth the price of sending a message to a 49ers team destined to finish 6-11 after dropping seven of their last eight games. And the trick plays were droppin’ in those games in proverbial and literal spikes of the football along the way. Wunderkind offensive coordinator Ben Johnson even got to put a cherry on top of his audition tape for the Chicago Bears with his flashy “look at me!” fake fumble and stumble gimmick in Soldier Field late in the season in a 44-17 victory. With little left to prove but to seize their inevitable Vince Lombardi trophy, Detroit then got upset on their home field in the first round of the playoffs by Washington and their rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels by a 45-31 score. That game effectively ended in a moment of karmic convergence when the boy genius play-caller decided it was a great idea to ask Jameson Williams, the wide receiver with the judgment that led him to separate gambling and drug suspensions by the league, to try his hand at throwing the football — because who would expect that to happen?!? If Jared Goff leads the Lions to a touchdown, then they would only be trailing by three points with just one defensive stop needed for the chance for a game-tying or winning drive. Instead, Williams under-threw the pass and it got picked off to ice the game. To say that I think the loss of Johnson to the Chicago Bears to be their play-caller and head coach will not be as big a deal as many Detroit fans fear is an understatement. In fact, if new offensive coordinator John Morton provides a sober voice of reason to Campbell’s hyper-aggressiveness (and self-destructive tendencies), then some exciting things could be on the horizon. I worry more about the loss of defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn who kept patching the defense together despite being simply ravaged by injuries. The Lions led the NFL with 254 games lost to injury — and the 86.5 adjusted games lost to injury was the sixth most in the league since 2001. Almost all of these losses were on defense. Detroit’s offense enjoyed just the second-fewest adjusted games lost to injury. Where does that leave the 2025-26 season for the Lions? They certainly should be healthier, simply by default. But as the offensive side of the ball mostly stayed clean, it was really in the end just defensive end Aidan Hutchinson who could be labeled a superstar who they did not have available in their loss to the Commanders. Certainly, attrition takes its toll — and it is why I keep complaining about general manager Brad Holmes for trading up in the draft. As I wrote in my deep dive on this team last year: “Falling in love with players in the draft — and then trading up for them comes at a cost. Former general manager Matt Millen would do that a lot. The third-round picks Holmes is giving away could have added another wideout, a defensive end, a cornerback.” Well, guess what?” Holmes did it again in last April’s draft by throwing in two third-round picks in the 2026 draft to get Jacksonville to swap third-round picks so he could snatch wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa from Arkansas. Holmes traded up to draft an injured Williams in the middle of the first round too. If the injuries hit this team this season and their depth is once again challenged, remember these moments. Getting Hutchinson back will certainly help the defense. But both Glenn and Johnson took some assistant coaches with them — so the brain drain concern is legitimate (even after my reservations about Johnson). The Lions were a team that posted a 7-2 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They also ranked eighth in the league with a +9 net turnover margin — so it is not hard to see where the variance would be that would impact their win/loss bottom line. All this brings me to the topic of the offensive line which has been the foundation of everything they accomplished on offense in the Johnson coordinating era. Losing right guard Kevin Zeitler to free agency after one year with the team was manageable — but the surprise retirement of perennial All-Pro center Frank Ragnow could be devastating. The 29-year-old was probably still the best center in the league. Detroit still is in great shape on the edges as Penei Sewell is the best right tackle in the world and left tackle Taylor Decker continues to play at a high level, albeit not an All-Pro. Left guard Graham Glasgow likely takes over at center — although the journeyman was considered the weak link of the group last year. Second-year pro Christian Mahogany probably becomes the starting left guard after getting two starts at the end of the season and holding down the fort — but how much of that sixth-round pick’s success was a product of playing next to Ragnow? There will be a competition to replace Zeitler at right guard with rookie Tate Rutledge out of Georgia probably on the inside track after getting drafted in the second round. The middle of this front could be a problem — and, by the way, the book on Goff going back to his Super Bowl appearances against New England is to pressure him right up the gut. With 10 starters back on both sides of the ball, it is easy to assume that the Lions will be in the mix to win the NFC once again. But it is not difficult to see how the wheels could fall off that wagon. As the San Francisco 49ers can attest, even franchises with a long history of success are not invulnerable. GREEN BAY PACKERS: The Packers were one of my sleeper teams that could threaten to make a deep postseason run last year. Instead, they lost their final three games of the season, culminating in a 22-10 loss at Philadelphia in the NFC wildcard round of the playoffs. Green Bay was only 1-5 against their NFC North division rivals — and they were 0-6 against Detroit, Minnesota, and the Eagles. Quarterback Jordan Love did not post a Passer Rating above 92.0 in his last four games — and he threw three picks in the playoff loss to Philadelphia. And after my raving about head coach Matt LaFleur in my deep dive last year, after he oversaw significant improvements on both sides of the ball the previous season, he endured his worst season as a head coach in his six years, with game management issues compounded by too many lapses of unneeded emotional outbursts. Perhaps the pressure of expectations got to him? Perhaps that impacted the team? Well, with a postseason record of just 1-3 since the 2021-21 season, he is on the hot seat now with general manager Brian Gutekunst invoking the “urgency” alarm regarding how he views this season. At least I got some of the projections right about the Green Bay defense! I thought bringing defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley in to replace the hapless Joe Berry would be an immediate improvement — especially because his move to a 4-3 scheme offered a better fit with the talent on that side of the ball. The Packers held their opponents to just 314.5 total Yards-Per-Game and 19.9 Points-Per-Game, ranking fifth and sixth in the NFL, respectively. Nine starters are back on defense. And to be fair to Love, it remains a mystery how much injuries impacted his disappointing season. In their prophetic opener against the Eagles in Brazil, Love suffered an MCL injury playing on the slick soccer field stadium grass. He played through the injury before missing 2 1/2 games due to a groin injury. He might have returned too soon for that mishap before injuring his elbow in the season finale — and that injury might have played a role in him throwing three interceptions against Philly in their playoff game. Another factor in defense of Love is that his wide receivers dropped 33 passes last season, the third-most in the NFL. Those wide receivers dropped 6.9% of the passes thrown at them, the second-most in the league. So, I don’t know how to assess where Love is at as he enters his sixth year in the league. As I wrote in my deep dive last season: “In Love’s last eight games (including their two playoff games), he completed 70.3% of his passes for 2150 yards with 18 touchdown passes and just one interception and a Passer Rating of 112.7. The pre-snap motion seemed to unlock Love’s proficiency with deep passes. And these numbers were accrued with wide receiver Christian Watson missing time in December with another injury-riddled season. The Packers’ season ended with Love throwing a bad interception in triple coverage against the 49ers, which makes me still consider whether the improvement on offense was more a result of LaFleur’s schematic genius or Love’s development. But it is undeniable that Green Bay ranked second in the Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics on offense in the second half of the season.” A year later, yeah, I don’t know. I will be watching and learning. But my biggest question with this team has become whether or not they have enough superstars who can simply overwhelm opponent coaching by their brilliance in talent on the field. They lack an elite cover cornerback. Rashan Gary has never met his vast potential on the defensive line and seems more of a number two pass rusher than a pure disrupter at the line of scrimmage. And the conventional wisdom criticism regarding the lack of a number one wide receiver may have more traction than I thought at this time last year after observing a season where the Packers dropped 33 passes and endured a drop rate of 6.9% of the passes from their quarterback, ranking third and second-worst in the league, respectively. No wonder LaFleur was getting into screaming matches with Vikings fans! Wide receiver Christian Watson will miss most, if not all, of the season due to the torn ACL he suffered in the regular season finale — and first-round draft pick Matthew Golden was in a committee of wide receivers at Texas last season. Maybe my positive vibes on Green Bay were a year premature and delayed by bad luck injuries to their quarterback. On the other hand, maybe this is a roster of very nice players that remains limited because it simply lacks the handful of superstar game-changers that are essential to win games in the postseason.LOS ANGELES RAMS: The Rams were hit hard by the injury on offense early on last year — and that played a big role in their starting the season 1-4. But head coach Sean McVay adapted, and that unit slowly got back to full strength. Los Angeles won nine of their next 11 games and won their fourth NFC West title in McVay’s eight seasons. After crushing Minnesota in the wild card round by a 27-9 score, the Rams gave Philadelphia their toughest test in their Super Bowl run in a narrow 28-22 loss in a snowy game on the road. There are reasons for optimism that the offense will be more explosive. That unit ranked 15th in the NFL from Weeks 1-10 in Offensive DVOA using the analytics by FTN/Football Outsiders — and they rose to fourth in the league in that metric from Week 11-18. General manager Les Snead did not resign wide receiver Cooper Kupp (who has been on the decline after years of injuries) — but instead brought in Davante Adams via free agency. McVay has been trying to get Adams on his team since 2019, and he offers him his first true X wide receiver since Odell Beckham. There are some very intriguing possibilities schematically with the additions to the roster. Adams is a better fit with Puka Nucua as an X since Kupp and he operate best as slot receivers. Snead resigned, and Tutu Atwell, with McVay committed to getting the wide receiver’s speed more involved. Tight end Tyler Higbee missed the first 14 games — but his return in December gave the offense a jolt. McVay can deploy more 12 personnel two tight-end sets as well after drafting Terrance Ferguson in the second round. The former Oregon tight end is a YAC machine. Snead also drafted Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round, whose 4.4 speed in the 40-yard dash is a better complement to Kyren Williams in the backfield than Blake Corum (whose skillset mimics Williams). The offensive line did not allow a sack in their last four games of the regular season — and Snead brought back former starting center Coleman Shelton in free agency. The other side of the line of scrimmage is another matter. In theory, the unit should be up-and-coming given all the young talent that Snead has successfully identified in the last few NFL drafts. He addressed their porous run defense by signing defensive tackle Poona Ford in free agency. The bigger problem is their pass defense. While this unit has exciting young pass rushers, the analytics speak loudly that their ability to generate pressure did not translate into slowing down passing attacks. Los Angeles was (only) 14th in Pressure Rate — but when they did pressure the quarterback, they only converted it into a sack 16% of the time, ranking 30th in the league (best exemplified by Jared Verse, who had 76 pressures in the regular season but only 4.5 sacks). Even worse, the defense ranked last in the NFL in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed when they did generate pressure. The problem was pass coverage, especially with the cornerbacks. Opposing quarterbacks under pressure still were able to find “open receivers” (two to five yards of separation from the closest defender) 34.1% of the time. These QBs found “wide open receivers (five or more yards of separation from the closest defender) 11.9% of the time. Both those marks were fourth-worst in the NFL — and the combined 46.0% clip of opposing QBs under pressure still completing passes to either open or wide open receivers was the worst in the league. The problem for second-year defensive coordinator Chris Shula was that sending additional pass rushers only made things worse — and he needed to blitz. When sending only four rushers, the Rams had a below-average pressure rate of 27%. When sending an additional rusher, their pressure rate dialed up to 48% which was the fifth-highest in the league — but that sacrifices another body in pass coverage. Shula’s defense ranked second-to-last in Pass Explosiveness Allowed when sending five or more rushers. Snead did not add a defensive back in free agency nor the draft — but they did lose cornerback Tre'Davious White in free agency, who returned to Buffalo. Any talk that the Rams are Super Bowl contenders needs to be tempered by the fact that they got outscored by -1.1 net Points-Per-Game and got outgained by -21.y net Yards-Per-Game last season. They benefited from a +6 net turnover margin, ranking tied for 10th. One way or another, this is most likely their last ride with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. The economic reality is that the guaranteed money from his contract kicks in once next season’s free agency period starts. With two first-round picks in the 2026 draft to use as capital to trade up for a rookie quarterback, the incentives to release Stafford (or maybe pull off a trade) before the salary cap hit may be irresistible. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: I am of two minds when it comes to the Vikings: they were overrated last season and now probably underrated relative to preseason expectations. Minnesota went 14-3 in the regular season last year despite only outgaining their opponents by +11.5 net Yards-Per-Game. They took advantage of a soft schedule that featured the AFC South and the New York Jets — and they swept those five games. They went 11-0 against teams that did not make the playoffs, although seven of those victories were by just one scoring possession. It was a season reminiscent of head coach Kevin O’Connell’s first year when the Vikings went 13-4 before getting exposed at home against the New York Giants. This time, all four of Minnesota’s losses were against the Detroit Lions and the Los Angeles Rams — and after closing out their season by getting crushed by the Lions and Rams by a combined 58-10 margin in critical games that (a) decided the NFC North (and a first round bye in the playoffs and (b) were in the first round of the postseason, they got exposed for being soft. Credit O’Connell and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah for not believing the hype three years ago in assuming they were closer to a Super Bowl than they were — a mistake the New York Giants made that offseason. And credit this brain trust again for making cold and realistic assessments regarding where the team is now. The nine sacks they surrendered to the Rams broke an NFL playoff record. They resisted the temptation to resign Sam Darnold, a quarterback I thought was overrated by the end of the season in those crucial games against the Lions and Rams. They resisted the siren call of Aaron Rodgers, a disaster waiting to happen. Instead, they took advantage of the rookie contract of quarterback J.J. McCarthy and spent $300 million in free agency to get tougher on the line on both sides of the ball. Adofo-Mensah signed the Indianapolis Colts’ starting center, Ryan Kelly, and right guard, Will Fries, and drafted Donovan Jackson from Ohio State in the first round to shore up the interior of their line. Left tackle Christian Darrisow is coming back from a torn ACL. If he can return to form, Minnesota could have an excellent offensive line with the stout Brian O’Neill at right tackle. The defense added veteran pass rushers Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave on the defensive line. Generating a pass rush without having defensive coordinator Brian Flores dial up blitzes at quite the league-leading 38.9% of opponent dropbacks will help the pass defense that tanked 28th in the NFL by allowing 242.0 passing Yards-Per-Game. The Vikings ranked second in defense, according to the Football Outsiders DVOA rankings last year. After tying for a league-most 33 takeaways, those impressive marks are probably not sustainable — but they could improve on the 335.4 total YPG they gave up last season, ranking 16th in the league. However, the key is McCarthy in what remains essentially his rookie season. I might have watched every snap McCarthy took under center for Michigan in his career. He is not a perfect prospect, and I think I have a good sense of what his challenges will be in becoming a good professional quarterback. But an entire book can be written about either uninformed or simply inaccurate assessments that continue to be made about him by the “professional” or cottage industry draft experts. The 22-year-old ran a 4.48-second time in the 40-yard dash at the combine. That’s fast, and I won’t comment on why many observers conclude his mobility is “average.” A pair of pundits whom I have great respect for their insight on the NFL made the hasty generalization that McCarthy was the beneficiary of the Wolverines’ great ground game that set him up for pass-action success. That’s simply not how the Michigan offense operated in his final season. Check the fan boards complaining about the lack of play-action with the hope that those plays would be unleashed in the Ohio State and then Alabama showdowns. In fact, too often McCarthy bailed the offense out on third-and-long with his arm or his legs after two successive running plays from a ground game that was not as effective as it was the year before. Lately, I have been hearing how mediocre he was in the fourth quarter at Michigan. What are you talking about, Cowherd? I don’t expect you to have watched the Illinois game in late November of his rookie season when he rallied a banged-up Wolverines offense to a second game-winning field goal to keep their undefeated season (and playoff hopes alive). But I do expect Cowherd to put down the cocktail and watch the semifinals in the College Football Playoff two years ago when McCarthy orchestrated a touchdown-tying drive in the two-minute drill against the Alabama defense to force overtime before leading Michigan to the game-winning touchdown in overtime. None of this is to say that McCarthy will have a great professional career — my concerns with him are rarely identified in the media I consume. But I’m kinda bullish on what McCarthy can do under O’Connell’s quarterback whispering guidance with weapons like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson (and McCarthy knows how to use tight ends). For me, his comp is Patrick Mahomes, which I know is a bold statement. Here’s why. Like Mahomes, he has an instinctual ability to extend plays with his legs to get out of trouble, reset the pocket, and find an open receiver. No, I don’t expect him to throw left-handed passes. He was also trained by head coach Jim Harbaugh to resist using his legs to gain yards on earlier downs and only reach into that bag of tricks on money downs — something Mahomes has mastered. He also has Mahomes’ leadership skills. We know O’Connell likes him — and that is a good segue into my closing thoughts. The Vikings were 9-1 in games decided by one-scoring possession last year. That seems unsustainable. But at a certain point, when a team posts a 25-9 record in games decided by eight points or less, if you keep on betting on the Regression Gods to appear, you are going to go broke banking on the Gambler’s Fallacy. Like the Chiefs’ consistently winning close games, at a certain point, I think it is reflective of the coaching staff. O’Connell won the NFL Coach of the Year award last year — and I still think he is underrated. Granted, he has yet to win a playoff game. But as opposed to many head coaches in the league, he does not pretend his team is something that has not yet proven. I don’t think Minnesota is going 14-3 again, but I will not be surprised if they are a better team on the field on both sides of the ball. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: The Saints opened last season with two straight victories, where they scored 91 combined points — and they temporarily looked like a rejuvenated franchise with new offensive coordinator modernizing the offense for quarterback Derek Carr with an array of pre-snap motion and play-action play calls. Alas, the hot start had more to do with getting to play Carolina and Dallas than it did a sudden transformation of a team that had not made the playoffs since the Sean Payton era in 2021. New Orleans would lose 12 of their last 15 games, and head coach Dennis Allen was fired in early November. Injuries played a role. The Saints led the NFL with 87.3 adjusted games lost to injury just on offense — and the 114.6 adjusted games lost to injury overall was the fourth-most in the league. The injury bug exposed the lack of depth on the roster, which was a direct result of general manager Mickey Loomis' continued attempts to game the salary cap and kick the can down the road. Well, judgment day is now upon this organization. New Orleans is now eating over $100 million in dead cap space just this season on players who are no longer on the roster, like the now-retired Carr, wide receiver Michael Thomas (last relevant in 2019), traded cornerback Marshon Lattimore, and quarterback Jameis Winston. When adding bloated contracts to aging veterans past their prime, like running back Alvin Kamara and defensive end Cameron Jordan, there is over $120 million dedicated this season to sunk costs or deteriorating assets, representing over one-third of their overall player budget. The result may very well be the worst roster in the league. The plan at quarterback appears to be to give the ball to rookie Tyler Shough, who they drafted in the second round. A former backup to Justin Herbert at Oregon, the journeyman played seven mostly nondescript seasons in a collegiate career that endured three season-ending injuries. As a 25-year-old last year, a solid season at Louisville put him on the radar of NFL executives. The defense ranked 30th in the league by surrendering 379.9 total Yards-Per-Game marred by a run defense that was second-worst by giving up 4.9 Yards-Per-Carry and 141.4 rushing YPG. That unit lost cornerback Paulson Adebop in free agency and free safety Tyrann Mathieu, who retired in late July. The coaching staff is new. The defensive coordinator is Brandon Staley, whose one good season was in 2020 for the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, who featured Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey at the peak of their careers. Kellen Moore finally gets his chance as a head coach after years of being bypassed on general manager short lists. Moore’s superpower might be his Teflon reputation in a coaching career, mostly working for offensive-minded head coaches. As the defensive coordinator in Dallas, he would usually get the credit for anything positive with the offense, while head coaches Jason Garrett and then Matt McCarthy would get the blame for the bad. A similar dynamic took place last year in Philadelphia, where head coach Nick Sirianni was the lightning rod for criticism while Moore was credited for stabilizing the offense. Moore’s one season where he worked for a defensive head coach was with the Los Angeles Chargers in Staley’s last season as their head coach — and Staley received the blame for everything given his reckless game management. Perhaps Moore can take advantage of Shough’s vast experience in college and put him in positions to succeed. An offensive line that features four former first-round draft picks and a former second-round pick could pay off from that investment like it did for the Detroit Lions. The defense probably cannot get much worse. But given the lack of flexibility due to previous financial commitments now on the ledger, the margin for error for this team is very thin. NEW YORK GIANTS: The original sin of the Brian Daboll/Joe Schoen head coach and general manager pairing was to overestimate how close their team was to being a legitimate Super Bowl contender after they upset the Minnesota Vikings on the road in the first round of the playoffs in January of 2023. It was a fateful moment for both teams. Both teams had significantly overperformed their underlying analytics — most notably, both teams got outscored and outgained in yardage in the regular season. The Vikings' management treated their roster as one that more resembled a .500 team than one that won 13 games in the regular season. They released running back Dalvin Cook rather than signing him to an expensive contract. They did not extend quarterback Kirk Cousins’ contract. The Giants, on the other hand, ignored the 38-7 shellacking they received the next week at Philadelphia and behaved as if they had a roster ready to take the next step rather than being fortunate even to make the playoffs and then face another pretender. Schoen gave quarterback Daniel Jones a new four-year $160 million deal and acquired several veterans to plug some holes. But the problems were much more systemic — and the Jones extension was so regretful that they traded him to Minnesota midseason last year just to get him out of the building. Since that playoff appearance, the Giants have gone 9-25 since — and they are on a 12-30-1 run since their unexpected 7-2 start in Daboll’s first season as the head coach. Despite all that, owner John Mara elected to retain Daboll and Schoen for one more year to see if they can turn things around. It is not difficult to conclude that Mara is yet another victim of the sunk-cost fallacy. What is tantalizing about the roster is that there are legitimate superstars at a few key positions. Left tackle Andrew Thomas and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II are perennial All-Pros. Wide receiver Malik Nabobs was an instant star in his rookie season. The linebacker room looks very intriguing with Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, Micah McFadden (the best of the bunch), and now the seemingly can-not-miss rookie out of Penn State, Abdul Carter. But Daboll and Schoen inherited Thomas and Lawrence II — and those smattering of additions in the last three years is overwhelmed by a long list of mistakes. Granted, previous general manager Dave Gettleman made the Daniel Jones pick — but Daboll and Schoen were also practitioners of the fallacy of sunk costs by doubling down on a situation that they had already invested significant resources. The short-term answer at quarterback this year was to sign Russell Wilson. Perhaps the Giants’ brain trust saw something different in his one season with the Steelers that the folks in Pittsburgh did not see, despite having him in the building every day? I came to the conclusion that Wilson is a phony after a long dissection of his divorce with Seattle a few years ago. I won’t rehash the reasons (or do a victory dance). When conducting this deep dive, I came across a picture of Wilson sitting in the front row of a New York Knicks game next to his celebrity wife, Chris Rock, and the actor Matthew Modine. Wilson was wearing a baseball cap that read “Real.” Like the frat boys on spring break wearing the Big Johnson shirts, Wilson broadcasting just how Uber Real he is has strong "my t-shirt is raising many questions answered by my t-shirt" vibes. When Mike Tomlin prefers Aaron Rodgers to Wilson as his quarterback moving forward, that speaks loudly. Complicating matters even more, Schoen drafted Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart in the first round. When Wilson continues to pad his stats at the expense of the offense — the thing that drove Sean Payton so nuts that he decided to just eat the $85 million salary cap hit — Daboll and Schoen are going to face a dilemma: try to save their jobs by sticking with Wilson (or turn to Jameis Winston, author of THREE three-interception games last year) or turn to the future by putting Dart under center. On the other hand, maybe a late-season dart throw on Dart will be just enough for Mara to sink even more costs on this current regime. On paper, Schoen’s most recent draft looks intriguing. The defense should have a potent pass rush. Last year’s record was marred by a brutal 1-8 record in games decided by one scoring possession. The Giants had an 8-4-1 record in one-possession games in Daboll’s first season. Maybe the Regression Gods were just teasing? They have since gone 5-12 in games decided by eight points or less. A lot of gamblers have gone broke waiting for their “luck” to turn. In Daboll’s case, perhaps this slide is less about bad breaks and more about bad game management, as he screams at his players to let everyone know who is supposedly not to blame. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: After closing out the 2023-24 in a 32-9 dumpster fire loss against Tampa Bay, I had plenty of skepticism regarding the Eagles heading into last season. I described the hiring of offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator as “high-risk, high-reward.” After winning the Super Bowl by beating their last two opponents by 50 combined points, it is safe to say that general manager Howie Roseman pushed the right buttons. He was responsible for the two most important moves last offseason. The first was signing Saquon Barkley as a free agent. Behind an elite offensive line, the running back led the league by averaging 3.0 yards before contact en route to his 2005 rushing yards in the regular season. In the postseason, he averaged 125 rushing Yards-Per-Game. More importantly, his ability to generate big plays even against stacked boxes allowed the offense to ask less of quarterback Jalen Hurts. In my deep dive last year, I voiced concern about Hurts’ career-high 15 interceptions, with opposing defenses too often goading him into bad decisions in the passing game against stacked boxes. With Barkley, Philly could still stick with the run against stacked boxes — he averaged 5.7 Yards-Per-Carry against stacked boxes, with that number rising to an 8.1 YPC clip in the fourth quarter. The Eagles averaged a league-low 26.3 pass attempts per game. But Hurts only threw five interceptions all season. After struggling against the blitz the previous year, Hurts was more effective when facing additional rushers last season — and he did not throw an interception against the blitz after tossing seven picks against additional rushers two years ago. He also thrived in the passing game against single safety coverage that stacked the box to slow Barkley down. Yet bringing in Vic Fangio to run the defense was perhaps even more impactful. The veteran defensive coordinator deployed a base nickel defense 80% of the time, with his best decision being to insert rookie Cooper DeJean into the starting lineup as their nickel back slot defender after their bye in Week Five. After a 2-2 start, the Eagles only gave up more than 23 points once in their final 17 games with DeJean as a starter. Fangio also deserves kudos for unlocking the talents of most of the high draft picks that Roseman tapped from the University of Georgia. Frankly, the whispers were that the fitness of some of those players was not the best. Fangio rotated them more, so they were fresher late in the game. Fangio also discovered a diamond in the rough in linebacker Zack Baun, who went from an afterthought signing in free agency from New Orleans to a first-team All-Pro member. Baun became a tackling machine, moving from the outside to an inside linebacker in Fangio’s two-high safety pre-snap schemes. These changes, along with Fangio’s mentorship, eventually generated breakout seasons from defensive tackle Jalen Carter and linebackers Nolan Smith Jr. and Nakobe Dean, validating Roseman’s faith in tapping key players from past Georgia defenses. Philadelphia was able to generate a pass rush without relying on the blitz — and that was the key since it unleashes his ability to present deceptive pre-snap looks. While the Eagles' defense ranked last in blitz rate, they ranked third by simulating pressure 37.9% of the time. Their fastest time to pressure rate of 2.31 seconds was the sixth fastest in the league. Philly led the NFL in both Yards-Per-Game Allowed and Yards-Per-Play — and they embarrassed Kansas City (and me for picking the Chiefs) in the Super Bowl. But only one team has won back-to-back Super Bowls in the last 15 years — and four defending champions have missed the playoffs the next year. The defense lost several contributors. Edge rushers Milton Williams and Josh Sweat were both lost in free agency — and they accounted for 4.5 of the six sacks of Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl. Cornerback Darius Slay was released in a salary cap move, and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson was traded away. Much is now being asked of nose tackle Jordan Davis, who is the remaining early draft pick from Georgia who has yet to blossom. Dean will miss much of the season after a torn patellar injury in the playoffs. Hurts has his fourth offensive coordinator in four years, with passing game coordinator Kevin Patullo taking over for Moore, who took the head coaching job in New Orleans. While Hurts posted the sixth-lowest interception rate in the league, his 3.6% turnover-worthy throw rate was 23rd and very close to the 3.7% turnover-worthy throw rate the previous year when he tossed 15 interceptions. Patullo is a Sirianni guy — and his promotion may result in returning to some of the principles that Moore successfully moved away from (like not using motion as much or replying on RPOs as the main mesh between the rushing and passing schemes). It was just two years ago that Sirianni led this team to the Super Bowl for the first time in his tenure. When he promoted from within by choosing Brian Johnson as their next offensive coordinator, the Eagles lost six of their last seven games, leading to that debacle against the Buccaneers. One wonders if this team wins because of Sirianni in the CEO head coaching role — or in spite of him? SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: With a salary cap crunch looming next season along with the deadline to make a decision on resigning quarterback Brock Purdy, the 2024-25 campaign was destined to be the Last Chance Saloon for this franchise to win their first Super Bowl championship under head coach Kyle Shanahan after the team lost in overtime against Kansas City the previous February. But the 49ers led the NFL with 141.2 adjusted games lost to injury — ranking second in the most starts lost on offense and third for the most starts lost on defensive — in a lost 6-11 season. Optimists can point to lots of evidence that San Francisco deserved better even with all the injuries. They have a 2-5 record in games decided by one-scoring possessions. They outgained their opponents by +59.9 net Yards-Per-Game but got held back by a -10 net turnover margin. They ranked 14th in the Football Outsiders DVOA metrics. But before one comes to the conclusion that last year was just a blip and the Regression Gods will get this team back onto the short list of legitimate Super Bowl contenders, those encouraging deeper metrics were derived from a roster that no longer exists. Gone are 20 players from last year’s team including eight starters and four past Pro Bowlers. Including special teams, general manager John Lynch had to replace players who accounted for nearly 10,000 snaps last year. The defense lost almost 40% of their snaps from last season including All-Pro cornerback Charvarious Ward and star safety Talanoa Hufunga in the secondary, linebacker Dre Greenlaw (who Lynch really wanted back), and three starters on the defensive line. Lynch’s rebuild/reload focused on the draft where he added 11 rookies including eight in the first five rounds — and his first five picks were on defense with a group of players who will be expected to be on the field immediately. Robert Saleh is back as their defensive coordinator with much more talent than he inherited in his previous run as the team’s DC in 2017. Seven past All-Pros remain — but a lot is being asked of 37-year-old left tackle Trent Williams to stay healthy, running back Christian McCaffrey to return to 100% after tearing his PCL and only playing four games, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk to recover from his ACL/MCL surgery in November, and tight end George Kittle to remain elite at 32-years old. After signing a $265 million extension, more will be asked and needed from Purdy. If the best comp to his value is Ringo Starr — the Beatles’ drummer who did not receive the same reverence as the others in the Fab Four but executed his role perfectly and now receives accolades from all of the hotshot drummers with bigger reputations in the music industry — then Purdy needs to prove he can match or exceed the Ringo Starr and his All-Starr Band post-Beatles era. For 22 straight seasons, San Francisco has either reached the NFC Championship Game or missed the playoffs. I was surprised to realize that despite two Super Bowl appearances in the last six seasons, the 49ers are only 70-62 in Shanahan and Lynch’s eight seasons as the football brain trust of this franchise. Positive regression is far from a guarantee. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: First-year head coach Mike Macdonald was able to make an immediate impact on the Seahawks last season. Inheriting a group that was ranked 28th in the NFL using the DVOA metrics of the Football Outsiders, Seattle’s defense rose to 10th in Defensive DVOA last year. They held five of their last eight opponents to 18 points or less. Such dramatic improvements are vulnerable to the plexiglass principle the following season, with the efficiency taking a few steps back — but there are substantive reasons to believe the progress on this side of the ball is sustainable. The Baltimore Ravens experienced a learning curve adjusting to Macdonald’s defensive approach when he was the defensive coordinator. The mixed fronts and pressures from basic presentations that disguise post-snap schematic adjustments are complicated. Player versatility is a must. Furthermore, Macdonald had the courage to accept that some things were not working midseason and made fundamental changes at linebacker. First, the team traded starting middle linebacker Jerome Baker, an offseason free-agent signing, to Miami for Ernest Jones IV on October 24th. The team then released Tyrel Dodson on November 11th. Then, rookie Tyrice Knight was elevated into the starting lineup in Week 10 after their bye week. Jones IV became a tackling machine in Macdonald’s system. Knight was an upgrade. The run defense significantly improved by ranking sixth in DVOA from Week 10 to the end of the season. This improvement allowed the Seahawks' safety to play back in pass coverage. Macdonald could also deploy more nickel defense with five defensive backs since nickel back Devon Witherspoon is so effective in the box in run defense. In their last eight games, Seattle ranked fourth in Points-Per-Game Allowed and fifth in Yards-Per-Game Allowed. Macdonald has 13 of the top 14 players in snap count back from that unit. The bigger question is on the other side of the ball after the team traded away Geno Smith and signed Sam Darnold as a free agent. Getting younger at quarterback makes sense, but there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of Darnold coming off a career year. Unfortunately, signing Darnold was not a package deal that also included wide receiver Justin Jefferson and their quarterback whisperer, head coach Kevin O’Connell. Much of Darnold’s effectiveness came from Jefferson snapping down deep balls with his wide catch radius that often bailed him out when his throws were not on the money.. The Seattle offensive line is likely to be a downgrade as well, given their question marks in the interior. The Vikings’ line averaged 2.5 seconds before pass rush pressure emerged. The Seahawks’ line succumbed to pressure after 2.29 seconds, which ranked sixth-worst in the NFL. Darnold has improved under pressure from his time with the New York Jets — but his numbers still plummeted last year when he was not in a clean pocket. He is not nearly as mobile as Smith. Additionally, he still has issues, as the final two games of the season last year demonstrated. He remains too streaky and inconsistent. When things are going well, he plays with confidence. But when things go bad as they did in that final regular season game at Detroit, he sees ghosts and gets into a funk. He cannot simply flip the switch when facing adversity. Instead, he needs steady success to clear his head of the ghosts inside. Darnold also has some technical problems with his game. His down-the-field vision and processing are average, at best. This aspect of his game has improved from his difficult rookie season, but it is still a liability. He holds the ball too long, which compounds the problem. His decision-making remains a work in progress, and he tends to bank on his arm talent too often. Technically, his lack of a compact delivery results in taking longer if he needs to reset his stance. The hope is that new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak can help put him in positions to succeed schematically like O’Connell did last year. I like the hire as I was very concerned that last year’s offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, was not ready to become an NFL coordinator and was better served coaching in college. Kubiak and O’Connell come from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree — and his heavy reliance on pre-snap motion and play-action passes should help create open receivers for Darnold. But that might not be enough to generate the numbers he put up in a Vikings uniform last year. Kubiak used the second-most zone read rushing plays as the offensive coordinator for New Orleans last year — and running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet saw their efficiency decline in that scheme versus gap schemes. And then there is the loss of wide receivers D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in the offseason. Third-year pro Jaxon Smith-Njigba enjoyed a breakout season last year — and the team signed Cooper Kupp in the offseason. But both those players have seen their success lining up in the slot — so how they will function together and whether or not either can continue to thrive as a traditional X or Y receiver is a question, especially since Kubiak used only two wide receiver sets 67% of the time last season. I am not going to be shocked if third-round draft pick Jalen Milroe gets time under center before the year is over. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: The Buccaneers have made the playoffs in five straight seasons — including winning the Super Bowl in 2021 — and they have won the NFC South title for four straight seasons. While it may look like they get stuck in neutral once they are in the playoffs, remember that this team beat Philadelphia, Detroit, and Washington in the regular season last year — and they only lost to the Commanders by a field goal in a game they kind of gave away late. Probably no NFL team has more continuity from last season, either. Tampa Bay has all 11 starters back on offense and nine starters back on defense. The only coaching change was the elevation of pass game coordinator Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator after Liam Coen took the head coaching job for Jacksonville. New offensive coordinators have become the norm for Baker Mayfield, who has had a new offensive coordinator in eight straight seasons. Mayfield needs to cut down on his 16 interceptions last year — but, otherwise, he comes off an outstanding season where he threw for 4500 yards while completing 71.4% of his passes and tossing 41 touchdown passes. He is protected by a strong offensive line led by All-Pro left tackle Tristan Wirfs. The unit is loaded with playmakers at running back and wide receiver. Bucky Irving enjoyed a breakout rookie season in the backfield and eventually seized playing time away from Rachaad White, who remains a solid option. Veteran wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both missed time last year but re-signed with the team to join intriguing young wideouts Jalen McMillan and rookie Emeka Egbuka. The Bucs generated 399.6 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 29.5 Points-Per-Game, ranking third and fourth in the NFL. The defense needs to generate more pressure from the edges — and that is why general manager Jason Licht signed linebacker Hassan Reddick in the hope that he will re-find his passion for football after a lost season with the New York Jets last year. Former All-Pro Antoine Winfield endured an injury-riddled season — but if he can regain his 2023 form, this unit should be improved. It is telling that a vast majority of the veterans opted to re-sign with this squad in the offseason. While some key members remain from the 2021 Super Bowl team, they had the fourth-youngest roster in the league last year, as Licht has been rebuilding this team on the fly. With plenty of playoff experience, Tampa Bay may be under the radar in many circles — but not in their minds. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: Not many people had the Commanders penciled into the NFC Championship Game before the season started. As I began my deep dive for them for this year, I assumed I would conclude they were a regression candidate. Including the postseason, they enjoyed a 9-2 record in games decided by seven points or less, including their miracle Hail Mary victory against Chicago. They only outgained their opponents by +39.7 net Yards-Per-Game. Quarterback Jayden Daniels may be susceptible to the not uncommon sophomore slump after sensational rookie seasons at the position. He led the NFL with a scramble rate on 12% of his dropbacks, and his 72 scrambles were 22 more than the next closest QB, who decided to take off with the ball and give up the pass. Certainly, this was one of the closely dissected areas of his game by opposing defensive coaches in the offseason. I think the best comp to Daniels is Lamar Jackson. Can Daniels develop into a dangerous passer when forced out of the pocket like Jackson has become — or will he continue to rely on his legs? Daniels had a below-average turnover rate last season, especially when throwing over the middle. And I still worry about his thin 6’4 frame with his 210-lb body absorbing more and more blows. He did play through a midseason injury, which limited his running around. In the playoffs, they upset Tampa Bay in a weird game before stunning, perhaps, an overconfident Detroit team (despite all their injuries on defense) whose players and coaches made several boneheaded plays and decisions. They then got crushed by Philadelphia by 32 points in the NFC Championship Game. So if this team takes a step back, it won’t be terribly surprising. But after my methodical look at this team, I have more reasons for optimism than I thought I would. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury had the best season of his career in operating an offense. I have never been a big fan, but he deserves lots of credit for stewarding Daniels’ rookie season. His offense seemed to add a new layer schematically each and every week. He finally added some pre-snap motion into the mix, which made his typical up-tempo attack a little predictable. He always has been a strong designer of running plays — and Washington ranked third in the league by averaging 154.1 rushing Yards-Per-Game (but much of that was from Daniels' scrambling). I think second-year general manager Adam Peters had a very nice offseason. He made two splashy trades by acquiring wide receiver Deebo Samuel from San Francisco and left tackle Laremy Tunsil from Houston. A year removed from playing with a case of pneumonia last season, Samuels can be an interesting chess piece for Kingsbury. Adding Tunsil, and then drafting left tackle Josh Conerly Jr. from Oregon is adding help and protecting the investment in their star franchise quarterback. Peters also signed or re-signed 12 players in free agency. Looking at their defense, it is not loaded with star players — but I kept on reading and re-reading descriptions like “versatile” or “chemistry-builder.” Second-year head coach Dan Quinn is building a defense in his image. While generating only 17 takeaways with a turnover rate in 8% of their opponent’s possessions last year was far below the numbers Quinn’s defenses enjoyed in Dallas, it would not be surprising if they forced more turnovers this season. But losing strong safety Jeremy Chin and defensive end Donte Fowler in the offseason stings. It was also surprising that Peters decided to cut bait on defensive tackle Jonathan Allen — but after the defense ranked 30th by allowing 137.5 rushing YPG last year, perhaps the coaching staff saw something. Clearly, there is an urgency to strike while the iron is hot with Daniels in his rookie contract. Another lingering concern is that last year’s group ranked as the sixth-oldest roster, weighted for snaps played. Aggressive trading left the Commanders with only five picks in last April’s draft — only two in the top 100 — and they are already without their second and fourth round picks for the 2026 draft. The margin of error has gotten thin. Best of luck — Frank.
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