2025 Belmont Stakes Preview

This year marks the first time that separate Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners meet in the third jewel of the Triple Crown since 2013.  That year, Derby winner Orb and Preakness winner Oxbow squared off at Belmont Park but interestingly neither of them were victorious as Oxbow finished second and Orb was third behind the winner, Palace Malice.  Will Sovereignty (Derby) and Journalism (Preakness) suffer the same fate?  There are some interesting challengers (six others in total) this year and below we preview the main contenders in this year's Belmont Stakes. 

   

#6 Baeza: The most successful path to Belmont Stakes victory has been skipping the Preakness and going directly from the Kentucky Derby to Belmont (or in this case, Saratoga).  This strategy has produced 11 winners since 2001, including recent champions Dornoch, Mo Donegal and Essential Quality.  Baeza and (Derby winner) Sovereignty are the only horses in the field that meet this condition.  The deepest closer in the race, Baeza, rallied from 15th at Churchill Downs to finish a hard-charging third.  One thing that's not in Baeza's favor is that this race will be run at 1 1/4 miles, rather than the normal Belmont distance of 1 1/2 miles.

#3 Rodriguez:  Bob Baffert's speedy 3YO won his Derby tune-up here in New York at Aqueduct race track (the Wood Memorial) in gate-to-wire fashion.  It will be shocking if Rodriguez is not on the lead today from the moment the gate opens and Baffert has never been shy about trying to steal these big races by going to the front and playing "catch me if you can".  But Rodriguez scratched the week of the Derby due to a foot injury and then did the same thing leading up to the Preakness, so question marks surround him.  And that Wood Memorial victory -- impressive as it was -- was over two months ago.

   

#7 Journalism:  Any doubts people had about this California invader after the Derby were laid to rest after his incredible Preakness Stakes run at Pimlico three weeks ago (which we cashed).  There is little to knock about Mike McCarthy's colt at this point but you have to wonder if the three races in a five week span, together with the cross-country travel could take something out of him.  Will these factors result in Journalism not being at his best today?  Maybe.  But maybe not.  And, like the Preakness, where he went off at even money, his odds here are relatively short, at 8-5 on the morning line.

   
#5 Crudo:  If Rodriguez doesn't fire because of his time off, lingering foot issue, or some other reason, this talented Todd Pletcher-trainee could have things all his own way.  If you watch his performance in the Sir Barton on the Preakness undercard, you can't help but be impressed.  He not only beat a pretty good group of 3YOs by daylight, but he galloped out after the race was over looking like he could go around the track again at the same pace.  And clearly Pletcher and co-owner (and Celebrity Chef) Bobby Flay think Crudo has the goods or they would have picked a different spot for him.  Pletcher knows something about winning this race, as he's done it four times and most recently three years ago with Mo Donegal.  If there's a knock against him, it's that Crudo has been beating horses at the equivalent of the AAA Minor League level and he's now stepping up to face Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan. 

   

#2 Sovereignty:  His talent is obvious and his skipping of the Preakness was the plan all along by his connections.  You can't deny his incredible performance in the Derby (which we cashed), where he faced almost three times the number of rivals he will this Saturday.  But like Baeza and Journalism, he doesn't possess any early speed so it's hard to say what kind of trip he will get and whether he will be able to make the same type of charge he did on that first Saturday in May.  Closers have had an incredibly hard time winning on the Saratoga dirt track.  And although the extra 1/8 of a mile may help (most dirt route races here are 1 1/8 miles), it might not be enough unless Sovereignty can be much closer to the pack early than he usually is (which he may be).

We cashed the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes and go for the 3-0 SWEEP again this year in the Triple Crown races (we've won 15 of the last 31 Triple Crown races, including a 3-0 SWEEP in 2022).  Don't miss our 2025 Belmont Stakes winner.

Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie