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NFL Week 5: VW's Power Rankings

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, Oct 05, 2023

Through the quarter-pole of the season, there is only one team without an ATS loss.It's also the team that leapfrogged its way into the top spot this week.Per Stathead.com, the 49ers are 3-0-1 ATS.Nine other teams have three ATS wins. All at 3-1, we have the Buccaneers, Seahawks, Ravens, Titans, Dolphins, Lions, Cowboys, Cardinals and Bills.At the other end of the ATS standings, there are five teams that have not covered a game to date: Saints (0-2-2), Panthers (0-3-1), Bears (0-3-1), Broncos (0-3-1) and Giants (0-4).Let's get started with this week's rankings:THE UPPER TIER1. San Francisco (4-0) - Though the Cardinals made an early charge at the 49ers, the NFC West leaders were too much in the second half. I have them leapfrogging the Eagles and Chiefs for the top spot. Pressure is on boys. Sunday night's game against the Cowboys will tell us plenty about both teams. (Last week 3)2. Philadelphia (4-0) - I didn't mind dropping the Eagles one spot after seeing how they performed against the Commanders last week. I still think they might be the best of the NFC, but the Eagles have to show me much more now that they've faced quarterbacks  Mac Jones, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Howell to start the season. (Last week 1)3. Kansas City (3-1) - I also didn't have an issue dropping the Chiefs down one after it struggled against the Jets. So much for what I thought was an improved defense, as the Chiefs allowed 245 yards and two touchdowns to Wilson and 6.8 yards per carry on the ground. The champs can redeem themselves with dominating performances when it goes to Minnesota and then host the Broncos. (Last week 2)4. Buffalo (3-1) - Since a brutal four-interception introduction to the season against the Jets in Week 1, quarterback Josh Allen has completed 76.6% of his passes for 812 yards (8.6 yards per attempt), eight touchdowns, and just one interception. Maybe, just maybe, the Bills are the team to beat in the AFC. (Last week 5)5. Dallas (3-1) - As I expected, the loss to the Cardinals was a brief mental collapse for the Cowboys, who responded impressively with a blowout home win over the Patriots. This Sunday will be their biggest game of the season when they travel to San Francisco for the primetime game on Sunday. How will the 30th-ranked Red Zone team fare? (Last week 7)6. Miami (3-1) - Maybe I jumped the gun on calling the Dolphins the best team in the NFL last week. They lost by 28 in Buffalo, and I have to wonder where the offensive swagger disappeared to, especially when they averaged 6.8 yards per play. Vic Fangio needs to shore up that defense, which has now allowed the Chargers to score 36 and the Bills to put up 48. (Last week 4)7. Baltimore (3-1) - I'll give the Ravens a bump after last week's 28-3 win in Cleveland, but I'll also keep in mind they played the Browns with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center - not Deshaun Watson. How fortuitous, as they'll face the banged-up Steelers this week. (Last week 8)8. Seattle (3-1) - I still don't think the Seahawks would lose to the Rams if they replayed Week 1's clash. We saw Seattle's defense suffocate the Giants on Monday night, registering a whopping 11 sacks while allowing a mere three points. It's the type of defense we've become accustomed to with this team, not the unit we saw yield 30, 31, and 27 points to the Rams, Lions, and Panthers, respectively. (Last week 9)9. Detroit (3-1) - The Lions made a statement by going into Lambeau and dominating the Packers on Thursday night. I think it's clear at the quarter-pole of the season the NFC North, for now, is Detroit's to lose. Dan Campbell's D ranks fourth in yards per play allowed (4.5) and 12th in points per drive allowed (1.69). (Last week 10)10. L.A. Chargers (2-2) - The verdict remains out with the Bolts. They're on the fence of being a very good team or mediocre. And I can't tell if it's coaching or lack of direction. The latter, however, would indicate coaching. A bye week should help them get focused. (Last week 11)11. Jacksonville (2-2) - The Jags went across the pond and dismantled the Falcons in the Toy Story-themed game at Wembley. The Bills, on the other hand, are in London and there will be no toying around with that offense. (Last week 15)12. Tampa Bay (3-1) - The Buccaneers responded to their first loss of the season with an impressive win over the Saints. Quarterback Baker Mayfield can now use the bye week to tighten things up and improve from sixth among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per play. (Last week 23)13. Cleveland (2-2) - Good thing for the Browns they have a bye week. Thompson-Robinson didn't get help from his offensive line, and was facing an upper-tier defense from Baltimore. The off week will help Watson get healthy. (Last week 12)14. Green Bay (2-2) - I thought the Packers might be more competitive against the Lions on Thursday, but to no avail. Jordan Love looks better each week, but the entire offense needs to gradually improve. Unfortunately, we're in the second quarter of the season and gradually may take too long. (Last week 13)15. Minnesota  (1-3) - The Vikings got their first win of the season, and the only reason they jump four spots is the teams around them have looked horrendous. If they can't get their running game going this week, it'll be back down the ladder after a loss to Kansas City. (Last week 19)16. N.Y. Jets (1-3) - Sinking quickly, I don't have anywhere to really put this team with the teams just behind also have losses. Thing is, it would be hard to punish this team after Zach Wilson completed 28-of-39 for 245 yards and two scores against a Kansas City defense that appeared to be stellar through Week 3. (Last week 14)THE LOWER TIER:17. Cincinnati (1-3) - Force the Bengals to beat you at this point, as I'm a bit in shock with this offense. (Last week 6)18. Pittsburgh (2-2) - With Kenny Pickett, this offense still needs help. Without Pickett, the offense is in big trouble. (Last week 16)19. New Orleans (2-2) - Once Alvin Kamara gets up to game speed and Derek Carr is 100 percent, I expect more from the Saints. (Last week 17)20. New England (1-3) - Is Bill Belichick still coach? (Last week 18)21. Denver (1-3) - Good, the Broncos earned their first win. Bad, the Broncos trailed No. 32 Chicago by 21 before doing so. (Last week 26)22. Tennessee (2-2) - The Titans should probably be higher, but they need to earn their ascension. We've seen two different Titans teams, at home and on the road. (Last week 27)23. Houston (2-2) - Okay, I see you C.J. Stroud. So you're the rookie who's going to make some noise. (Last week 28)24. L.A. Rams (2-2) - Another team I believe can be higher. Is Puka Nacua the most important player on the offense? (Last week 30)25. Washington (2-2) - The Eagles brought the Commanders down to earth last week. But they're still better than the Giants. (Last week 21)26. N.Y. Giants (1-3) - Speaking of which, things are looking awfully bleak with this team. (Last week 20)27. Atlanta (2-2) - On the fence where this team belongs after opening the season 2-0, and now 0-2 since. (Last week 22)28. Indianapolis (2-2) - Granted, the Colts were competitive against the Rams. But a loss in overtime drops Indy. (Last week 24)29. Arizona (1-3) - A loss to No. 1 San Francisco means the Cardinals will stay put at 29. They showed spunk early, but couldn't sustain. (Last week 29)30. Las Vegas (1-3) - They didn't make it a game in Inglewood, the Chargers took their foot off the gas. (Last week 25)31. Carolina (0-4) - Bryce Young returned to the offense. He shouldn't have. (Last week 31)32. Chicago (0-4) - The Bears found their offense, but couldn't hold on at home against Denver. Is this locker room unraveling? (Last week 32)

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Week 5 NFL Top 10 Poll

by Wayne Root

Thursday, Oct 05, 2023

Only two undefeated teams left.    1. San Francisco (4-0)  The San Francisco 49ers are a buzzsaw right now—and running Christian McCaffrey is the blade. and might have Dallas in trouble this week. They’re not perfect tho. Through four games, the Niners have allowed touchdowns on six of nine drives they've allowed to reach the red zone, a 66.7% rate that is tied for 23rd in the NFL. McCaffrey aside, the defense makes you earn every point. San Francisco is going to have a chance to notch a statement win Sunday night against the Dallas Cowboys, and the way the Niners are playing, betting against them would be unwise. 2. Philadelphia (4-0) How about that Philadelphia vaulted defense says few? The Eagles are 27th in passing yards allowed (260.8 per game) and have yielded the third-most passing touchdowns with nine, trailing only the Broncos (13) and Bears (10). They still have Hurts to carry the team. Hurts threw for 319 yards and two touchdowns against Washington while adding 34 yards on the ground. At day's end winning is all that matters. And with the Los Angeles Rams and New York Jets next up, there's an excellent chance the Eagles will be a perfect 6-0 when the Miami Dolphins come calling in Week 7. 3. Buffalo (3-1) Was that a statement game Buffalo game division foe Miami on Sunday? Bills quarterback Josh Allen authored that statement as the Buffalo quarterback threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns and rushed for another in a game the Bills controlled from start to finish. The Bills defense also had a say. As great as Allen was in Week 4, the Bills defense may have been even better. Buffalo held Miami's high-octane offense in check, forcing two turnovers and sacking Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa four times. The defense did receive bad news. On Monday, coach Sean McDermott announced that the former All-Pro cornerback White is out for the season with a torn right Achilles suffered in the team's win over the Miami Dolphins. 4. Dallas (3-1) The performance against Arizona in Week 3 still resonates: 222 yards allowed, 180 in the first half, 7.4 yards per carry. However, with dominant defense, the team went right back to blowing opponents out and gave New England thorough beating. The Cowboys surrendered just 253 yards of offense and 10 first downs against an overmatched Patriots team. Dallas forced three turnovers, returning two for touchdowns. In the Cowboys' three victories this season, they have waylaid opponents by a combined score of 108-13. But on Sunday we will find out just how good these Cowboys truly are. Week 5 brings with it a trip to Santa Clara to face the undefeated 49ers. The Cowboys know opponents will want to run on them each week, and San Francisco (No. 3 in rushing) is up next, with two games against Philadelphia (No. 2) in the near future.  5. Miami (3-1) The Bills are a significant hurdle if the Dolphins are ever going to be considered legit Super Bowl contenders. Last week, the Miami Dolphins scored the most points in a game since 1966 and racked up the second-most yards in a game in NFL history. The team was the talk of the NFL. Well, the Dolphins are once again one of the league's biggest stories—for a very different reason. Because in Week 4, it was the Miami defense's turn to be embarrassed. There are several problems that plague the Dolphins' defense, including its inability to get off the field on third down. Miami is allowing opponents to convert on 46% of their third-down attempts -- tied for the eighth-worst rate in the NFL. The 414 yards of offense Miami allowed isn't that gaudy a number. But not counting a kneel-down at the end of the first half, Buffalo scored on eight of its first nine possessions. They’re back to the drawing board.  6. Kansas City (3-1) After outlasting the New York Jets on Sunday night, the Kansas City Chiefs are 3-1 and where they usually are; all alone atop the AFC West. But these aren't the Chiefs of years past—and that's cause for some concern. The Chiefs have five takeaways, tied for 11th in the NFL. That's not good enough for a team that thrives on the pressure it puts on the opposing offense. Mahomes will be able to magically lead the Chiefs to victory despite a lack of passing-game weapons outside tight end Travis Kelce, a suspect offensive line and an average defense. And any team with Patrick Mahomes is a dangerous one. But many have doubts as to whether these Chiefs can get back to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in five years. 7. Baltimore (3-1) Sunday's blowout win over the rival Cleveland Browns admittedly carries with it an asterisk as the Ravens pounded on a Browns team that was short both star running back Nick Chubb and starting quarterback Deshaun Watson. The question is whether these Ravens can hang with the likes of the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs and claim a spot as one of the AFC's true heavyweights. In the past two weeks, the Ravens have allowed three runs of 20 yards or longer -- only the Broncos and Cowboys have given up more in that span. The problem has been setting the edge with young outside linebackers. Or maybe they also have a problem on offense. Ravens topped 130 yards on the ground on Sunday but needed 40 carries to do so. Quarterback Lamar Jackson accounted for four touchdowns but threw for less than 200 yards and averaged just three yards per carry. We could say that the Browns defense is that great or we will wait and see.  8. Seattle (3-1) Stopping the run has been the only thing Seattle's defense has done consistently well. Everything else has been downright poor, with the Seahawks' third-down defense standing out as the culprit. The Seahawks ranked second-to-last in third-down percentage, allowing opponents to convert more than 57% of the time. When the top contenders in the NFC are mentioned, it's almost always three teams; the Philadelphia Eagles, the San Francisco 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys. Putting the Seattle Seahawks in that company may be stretching things a little as they try to move up the ladder. Note that quarterback Geno Smith is out for four weeks. Against the Giants, the Seahawks tallied just 281 yards of offense and 13 first downs. Seattle converted just three of 12 third downs so they have ways to go. After struggling over the first three weeks of the season, the Seahawks defense was dominant against the Giants. Seattle harassed Daniel Jones incessantly, piling up a whopping 11 sacks. The Seahawks had three takeaways, including a 97-yard pick-six from rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon. The Seahawks will have the bye week and the team's other banged-up players to rest up. It may be a while before we know exactly how good these Seahawks are or not. They don't play a team with a winning record until a Week 9 trip to Baltimore. 9. Detroit (3-1) The team's last playoff win came all the way back in 1991 but yet, the Lions faithful are loud about this season. Few are laughing at these Lions now, not after they went into Lambeau Field and manhandled the Packers on the way to seizing first place in the NFC North. Here’s a roadblock to consider. The pass rush has certainly improved from the past two seasons, but the Lions' pass rush win rate is 32.3% through four games -- which ranks 29th in the league. The Lions have an outstanding offensive line and ground game. The defense is light-years better than last year's league-worst unit. And while Jared Goff may not be Patrick Mahomes, he's not Zach Wilson either. Here’s our final verdict:?Detroit is legit and the best team in the NFC North. 10. Tampa Bay (3-1) We love this! Baker Mayfield is back.Mayfield has led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a 3-1 record and first place in the NFC South. Last week he threw three touchdown passes in a convincing win over the New Orleans Saints. Mayfield currently ranks sixth overall in quarterback efficiency. Instead of worrying who may be the team's next quarterback, the Bucs just may have found their guy. The Bucs' defense is giving up 17 points a game -- seventh best in the league. But it has given up 16 pass plays of 20 or more yards -- fourth worst in the NFL. There's also the matter of Tampa having played one really good team; a two-touchdown loss to the Eagles. But the Bucs head into the bye a first-place team with a week to get healthy before their second real test of the season; a home date against the first-place Detroit Lions. Their 3-1 start and a division lead in the NFC South are nothing to overlook. Mayfield has been everything the team hoped he'd be and more. 

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Week 5 College FB Observations: Rebels to Reckon With

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, Oct 05, 2023

I waited as long as I could to talk about UNLV, not wanting to turn to an easy subject for the lead of this column.But with all due respect to the rest of the nation - and smaller schools making headlines, such as James Madison or Jacksonville St. - the Rebels are becoming one of the best stories in college football.First-year coach Barry Odom has done a remarkable job in turning the program around, as UNLV is two games shy of becoming bowl-eligible with a 4-1 mark, the lone loss being a 35-7 defeat in Ann Arbor to second-ranked Michigan.In the four wins, however, the Rebels have scored 40 or more points in each, an average of 43.2 points per game.The high-scoring Rebs may have the 113th-ranked pass attack, but they've also played two quarterbacks after starter Doug Brumfield was injured early on. They've made up for it with a rushing game that averages 214 yards per game, 11th best in the nation, while averaging 5.19 yards per carry.Sure, last year's version of the Rebels was also 4-1, and went on to lose their next six games before winning the regular-season finale against Nevada, 27-22. Too little, too late, as coach Marcus Arroyo was shown the door and UNLV was left out of a bowl game for the ninth straight season and 21st time in 22 years.So what's different?Some have said it's Odom's demeanor with the players. Others have said his demeanor with those outside the program allows positivity to infiltrate his team as a whole. Many believe it's a combination of both.When you combine a massive culture change beginning with attitude and commitment, with an SEC-like atmosphere, and instill confidence, you're going to see change.Now, with a bye week upon them, the Rebels have time to decompress, soak up their success, and prepare for in-state rival Nevada on Oct. 14. Though the game is in Reno, their normally tough much-hated rival has been one of the worst teams in the nation.It's probably a good thing the Wolf Pack (0-5) are next on deck, as it'll reignite the Rebels out of their break for another trophy game - they just one the Pineapple Trophy with a win over Hawai'i - and will keep them focused rather than seeing them come out flat.The game to keep an eye on with this team is when it travels to Fresno State on Oct. 28. The Bulldogs are in the Top 25, and might normally see a cakewalk in UNLV. But the Rebels return home to play Colorado State after their game in Reno and could be heading to Fresno with a wealth of momentum. If I see double digits, I'm jumping on the dog.With seven games remaining, mark my words, the Rebels are going bowling under Odom.Here are more College Football Observations heading into Week 6:FOOTBALL GALORE - Beginning Wednesday, we can take solace in knowing there will be 49 consecutive days with either a college football or NFL game. That's FOURTY-NINE through Nov. 22. This week we got Conference USA, Big 12, and Big 10 weekday games, and the onslaught continues with C-USAction during the week until we get our annual dose of MACtion in November.RED RIVER FAREWELL - In the game of the week, we have a 5-0 Texas Longhorns team against a 5-0 Oklahoma Sooners squad in the teams' annual Red River Rivalry in Dallas. Only this year's version will meet for the final time as members of the Big 12. It's been the marquee matchup for the conference and dates to 1900. Yes, the rivalry will continue and will soon belong to the SEC, but Saturday will be historic considering both are undefeated in a year the complexion of the league will change after the season.Save for last year’s 49-0 win by Texas, the Red River Rivalry was decided by eight points or less in the eight previous meetings. Texas is currently -6 1/2 with a total of 60 1/2. Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern.ROUGH START - Speaking of the Big 12, it's been a rude welcoming for the four newcomers, who are a combined 1-7 in conference action. The lone win was by BYU, which topped Cincinnati last week, 35-28. But other than that, it hasn't been pretty. After BYU, which is 1-1 in conference play, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF are all 0-2.The Cougars, Cincinnati and Houston have byes this weekend, while UCF (3-2) travels to play at Kansas (4-1, 1-1) in a game the oddsmakers think might be a close one. The Knights are catching +1 1/2 from Kansas in the 4 p.m. eastern kick, with the total checking in at 65.CHALK CHECK-IN - Laying between 15 and 19 1/2 points paid off last week, as favorites in that range went 3-0. Across the regular board games, favorites got the best of the underdogs, going 29-22, with four pushes.Favorites dominated the low-chalk category, covering 15 of the 23 games with lines between 1 and 7 1/2, outside of a couple of pushes.Every week I'll update you with regular board games (no FCS or added), broken down into different point-spread ranges. There were a few pushes this week and a pk'em game to consider, but through Week 5, favorites are 134-126 with the following breakdown:1-3 1/2 ............. 25-254-7 1/2 ............ 34-288-10 1/2 .......;.... 12-1111-14 1/2 .......... 20-1915-19 1/2 ........... 13-920 and up ...... 30-34

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VW's Weekly Recap: College FB Flop, NFL Prevails

by Vegas Writer

Thursday, Oct 05, 2023

Time for the weekly recap, as I take a look back at the week that was.From last Tuesday, through Monday, I went on an 8-8-1 roll in every sport and was down -700. Always transparent.I finished 5-6-1 in both college and pro football during that stretch, with a horrendous college football week, going 1-4-1, including 0-2 with my lone plays of the month, losing two dogs on Syracuse and Florida.Overall, College Football still continues to be impressive since Week 0, as I brought a 16-12-1 run for +$2,870 net profit since Aug. 31 into this week.Breaking down favorites and dogs in college football, I am 2-3 with the underdogs I've released and am 13-7-2 with favorites.Sitting at 14-8-2 in the NFL, I'm now 6-3 with underdogs - all six victories winning outright.As for MLB action, a 2-1 week brought in $900 of net profit. Dating back, I brought a 64-55-1 run with $6,340 net profit into the postseason.The WNBA is approaching the Finals. Unfortunately, I won't be able to attend the games in Las Vegas, as credentialing becomes extremely tight when requests run through the league. But I've had my eyes on things, and will certainly have some action coming up.Last week I went 1-1 in the WNBA and nailed my Player Prop of the Year on A'ja Wilson's points prop against Dallas.Looking forward to a big week, with plenty of action in baseball, basketball and football.Be sure to check out my College Football observations and my NFL Power Rankings.Let's gear up for a big week of action.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL and NCAAF Previews and Odds - 10/05/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Oct 05, 2023

The Thursday sports card features NFL and NCAAF action.Week 5 of the NFL regular season kicks off with the Washington Commanders hosting the Chicago Bears on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET. The Commanders have lost two games in a row after their 34-31 loss in overtime at Philadelphia as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. After recovering an Eagles’ fumble in the end zone in the second quarter, Washington went into halftime with a 17-10 lead. Trailing by a touchdown after A.J. Brown’s touchdown reception with just 1:43 left in the fourth quarter, Commanders’ quarterback Sam Howell orchestrated a game-tying drive culminating with a 10-yard touchdown catch by Jahan Dotson. Head coach Ron Rivera chose to kick the extra point to force overtime rather than attempt a game-winning two-point conversion. The Eagles’ Jake Elliott kicked the game-winning 54-year field goal with 3:54 left in the overtime session. Howell completed 29 of 41 passes for 290 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions in the losing effort. The Bears remained winless this season in a 31-28 loss to Denver as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Chicago took a 28-7 lead at the 4:11 mark of the third quarter with quarterback Justin Fields' 2-yard touchdown pass to Khalil Herbert. Russell Wilson responded with two touchdown drives to pull the Broncos within seven points before forcing a Fields’ fumble on a naked bootleg that Jonathan Cooper scooped up for a game-tying 35-yard score. Fields led the Bears back down the field before head coach Matt Eberflus bypassed a short field goal attempt for a fourth-and-one opportunity, which they failed to convert. Denver went on to kick the game-winning 51-yard field goal with 1:41 left. After posting a perfect passer rating in the first half while completing 16 of 17 passes, Fields ended the game with 28 completions on 35 attempts for 335 yards with four touchdown passes and one interception. Washington is a 6-point favorite, with the total set at 44.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The sixth week in NCAAF college football continues with two games on national television between FBS opponents. Liberty plays at home against Sam Houston State on the CBS Sports Network at 7 PM ET. The Flames are unbeaten after four games this season after their 38-6 victory at Florida International as a 10-point favorite back on September 23rd. Quarterback Kaidon Salter completed 11 of 21 passes for 156 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while adding another 77 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. Head coach Jamey Chadwell’s team opened with victories at home against Bowling Green and New Mexico State before winning at Buffalo and FIU. The Bearkats are winless in their first four games after a 35-28 upset loss to Jacksonville State as a 7-point favorite last Thursday. After scoring only ten combined points in their first three games, senior quarterback Keegan Shoemaker completed 22 of 38 passes for 285 yards with two touchdown passes and one interception to lead Sam Houston State to 28 points in the losing effort. This contest is the Bearkats' fourth game away from home after losses at BYU, Air Force on a neutral field, and on the road at Houston. Liberty is a 20-point favorite with an over/under of 45.5. Western Kentucky travels to Louisiana Tech on ESPNU at 8 PM ET. The Hilltoppers ended a two-game losing streak with a 31-10 victory against Middle Tennessee as a 6.5-point favorite last Thursday. Senior quarterback Austin Reed completed 30 of 52 passes for 297 yards with two touchdown passes and an interception in the win. Western Kentucky opened their season with wins at home against South Florida and Houston Baptist. They went on a two-game road trip where they lost at Ohio State, 63-10, before a 27-24 loss at Middle Troy. They raised their record to 3-2 with their win last week against the Blue Raiders. The Bulldogs ended a two-game losing streak with a 24-10 win at UTEP as a 1.5-point favorite last Friday. With Boise State transfer Hank Bachmeier out for a second-straight game with a shoulder injury, the junior quarterback completed 9 of 20 passes for 152 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions in the victory. Louisiana Tech began its season with a win at home against Florida International before losing on the road to SMU. They beat Northwestern State at home before losing at home to North Texans and then at Nebraska. The Bulldogs win against the Miners evened their record at 3-3.Western Kentucky is a 6-point road favorite with a total of 60.5.

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Calgary Flames 2023 Season Preview

by Will Rogers

Wednesday, Oct 04, 2023

Last season didn't go as planned for the Calgary Flames. They often outplayed their opposition but still found a way to lose. Close games rarely went their way. They finished with 93 points, narrowly missing the playoffs. That's not good enough for Flames' fans, especially not with their northern neighbors thriving. Will things be any different this year? In terms of talent, the Flames are loaded. They were actually the only non-playoff team to score more goals than they allowed. Their biggest change comes behind the bench. Longtime coach Darryl Sutter is gone. Replacement Ryan Huska will help to change the culture and breathe new energy into the locker room. On paper, the Flames are solid in all areas. The defense is particularly strong. Goaltender Markstrom wasn't as good last season. For the team to really take the next step, he needs to return to the form he displayed in 2021-22. Markstrom started coming around at the end of last season and I'm expecting a bounce-back season.The Pacific Division is tough. The Flames are +828 to win it. Possible but unlikely. They're +1591 to win the West and +4339 to win the Cup. Stranger things have happened!  If you're looking to make a regular season o/u points prop play, the Flames are being projected to finish with 94.5 points. That's only slightly better than last season. It seems entirely reasonable that they can turn a few of the close losses into wins this year. I like their chances of finishing with 95 or more. That means a return to the postseason and that Calgary fans will get to enjoy playoff hockey.  Let's go Flames ... Will Rogers

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, MLB and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 10/04/23

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Oct 04, 2023

The Wednesday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, and UEFA Champions League action.The sixth week in NCAAF college football begins with two games on national television between FBS opponents. Middle Tennessee hosts Jacksonville State on ESPNU at 8 PM ET. The Blue Raiders have lost two games in a row after their 31-10 loss at Western Kentucky as a 6.5-point underdog last Thursday. The Gamecocks have won two games in a row after a 35-28 victory in overtime at Sam Houston State on Thursday. Middle Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite, with the total set at 52 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). New Mexico State plays at home against Florida International on the CBS Sports Network at 9 PM ET. The Aggies lost for the second time in their last three games in a 20-17 loss at Hawai’i as a 3-point underdog on September 23rd. The Golden Panthers were on a three-game winning streak before a 38-6 loss to Liberty as a 10-point underdog on September 23rd. New Mexico State is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 48.5.Major League Baseball continues its postseason with four games in the wildcard round of the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Rays are at home against the Texas Rangers on ABC at 3:08 PM ET. The Rangers took the opening game of this best-of-three series with their 4-0 victory on Tuesday. Zach Eflin takes the mound for the Rays to face Nathan Eovaldi for Texas. Tampa Bay is a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Minnesota Twins host the Toronto Blue Jays on ESPN at 4:38 PM ET. The Twins seized a 1-0 lead in this series with a 3-1 victory yesterday. They turn to Sonny Gray to battle against the Blue Jays’ Jose Berrios. Minnesota is a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers play at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks on ESPN2 at 7:08 PM ET. The Diamondbacks have a 1-0 lead in this series with their 6-3 upset victory in Game 1 on Tuesday. Freddy Peralta takes the hill for the Brewers to pitch against Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks. Milwaukee is a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the Miami Marlins on ESPN at 8:08 PM ET. The Phillies have a 1-0 lead in this series after their 4-1 win yesterday. They tap Aaron Nola to duel against the Marlins’ Braxton Garrett. Philadelphia is a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.Matchday 2 in the UEFA Champions League concludes with eight group-stage matches. Two matches start at 12:45 PM ET. Atletico Madrid hosts Feyenoord as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Antwerp plays at home against Shakhtar Donetsk as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Six matches conclude the UCL card at 3 PM ET. Lazio travels to Celtic on the CBS Sports Network in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5. AC Milan plays at Borussia Dortmund in a pick ‘em contest with an over/under of 2.5. Paris Saint-Germain is at Newcastle United in a pick ‘em match with a total of 3. Manchester City visits RB Leipzig as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Crvena Zvezda is at home against the Young Boys as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Barcelona plays at FC Porto as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. All eight Champions League matches are available on Paramount+.

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Week 6 College Football Top 10 Poll

by Wayne Root

Tuesday, Oct 03, 2023

EVERY TEAM IN OUR TOP 10 POLL IS UNDEFEATED.  1. Texas Texas is good at the line of scrimmage. Normally, a game against Kansas, the week before Red River, this would be a classic look-ahead game, and Texas didn't look ahead because this team is great on the line of scrimmage. They play really good defense, and they can run the rock. It wasn’t always pretty on Saturday, but it doesn’t have to be when facing a top-25 team. Quinn Ewers made one mistake that cost the Texas Longhorns some points, but Jonathan Brooks came through with 200 yards and a score while Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy combined for over 190 receiving yards. Texas is what Georgia has been over the last couple of years: great on defense, consistent effort, great on the line of scrimmage. Now, we get what we wanted, a classic rivalry of Oklahoma vs Texas. 2. Michigan Complete domination. Michigan is better than Georgia. They would beat Georgia next week, maybe even in Athens. They have proven it at the line of scrimmage. The Wolverines can play defense, and they can cover. The Michigan Wolverines offense did its thing on Saturday, but the real standout performance in Week 5 came from Michigan’s defense. The Wolverines held Nebraska to 210 total yards on their first eight drives, pitching a shutout against the Cornhuskers’ starting offense. With more performances like this one or a signature win, Michigan can grab a top-4 spot in our CPO rankings. BTW, who is stopping the Wolverines' run game?  3. Georgia After playing Auburn, we have data and evidence that show that this Georgia team is a shell of what it was in the past. The Georgia Bulldogs have won 22 consecutive games and the victory in Week 5 is thanks to Brock Bowers. With 160 scrimmage yards on just nine touches, Bowers once again demonstrated why he’s an NFL star in the making. With that said, Georgia drops in the college football rankings again because it’s still not performing at the level you’d expect from a championship contender. Georgia is 67th in yards per carry allowed this season after ranking in the top three in each of the last four seasons. This is clearly not the same Georgia of what we were used to over the last two seasons, when it won back-to-back championships. I probably have them ranked too high.  4. Ohio St Coming off the Week 5 bye, the Ohio State Buckeyes head into a favorable two-game stretch of their schedule. There are several big storylines surrounding this team heading into its Week 6 matchup against Maryland, including the confidence of first-year starting QB Kyle McCord, who led that memorable game-winning drive to beat the Irish in South Bend. Maryland will be competitive, but it’s a matchup the Buckeyes should walk away with fairly comfortably and the same goes for Purdue. On the defensive side of the ball, OSU has been stout all season long, holding opponents to 8.5 points per game and ranking second in the country in scoring defense. If all goes well, we’ll get Ohio State vs Penn State on Oct. 21with both programs boasting perfect records. 5. Florida St After a one-week recovery coming off the overtime victory on the road against Clemson, the Florida State Seminoles now stare down a perfect opportunity to be 6-0. Jordan Travis threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns to help the Seminoles snap a seven-game losing streak against ACC foe Clemson. The Seminoles went undefeated in September for the first time in years and if they can beat Virginia Tech and Syracuse, it will be the first time Florida State is 6-0 since 2015. Their win over LSU is looking a lot less impressive by the week, as the Tigers fell to 3-2 after dropping a game to Ole Miss this past weekend. Also, the Seminoles have been outgained by 100-plus yards in each of their last two games. That alone is a recipe for an upcoming disaster.   6. Oregon  After what happened to USC in Boulder, the Oregon Ducks look even better. After trailing 6-0 at Stanford after the first quarter, the Ducks put their foot down and ran off 42 straight points in a dominant win over the Cardinal. Oregon is one of only two FBS teams averaging 50-plus points per game this season, with the other being USC. While Oregon might not have a quick strike offense that’s on the same level as the Trojans, it’s evident the Ducks’ defense is much better. Of course, head coach Dan Lanning will need to bring out every defensive trick and need his team to execute to near perfection for the Ducks to stop Washington and Michael Penix Jr. in Week 6. 7. Penn St It’s happening. Penn State was tied at the half with Northwestern this past weekend, and then, just like that, James Franklin's team came alive on both sides of the ball and cruised to a 41-13 win over the Wildcats. On an afternoon that saw Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combine for just 107 rushing yards on 27 attempts, quarterback Drew Allar stepped up. The efficiency (5.7 yards per attempt, 54.5% completion rate) was bad, but Allar responded to a 10-10 halftime score with two touchdowns and he helped the Nittany Lions outscore Northwestern 31-3 in the second half of the game. If it’s defense you’re looking for, look no further. The Nittany Lions' defense held Northwestern to just three points on its final nine drives, looking like the same group that was coming off a dominant showing against Iowa the previous week. This is a unit that ranks first in the country in total defense, and third in scoring defense, takeaways and sacks.  8. Washington  The Washington Huskies are staring down a golden opportunity. This has been one of the best teams in college football in the last calendar year, with just a single loss on the resume since October 2022. If the Huskies can find a way to take out Oregon in Week 6, everyone will start talking up Michael Penix Jr. as the Heisman favorite as he leads Washington into the playoff hunt. Michael Penix Jr. leads the country in passing, averaging 400 yards per contest. He is the real deal, guiding an offense that is posting 569 yards per game, which leads all FBS teams, and 46 points per game, which ranks fourth. Now sitting at 5-0, Kalen DeBoer's team has a bye this weekend before hosting Oregon in a top-10 showdown on Oct. 14.  9. USC A notable drop for a winning team, and the Trojans defense is still very much a liability after allowing Colorado to score 48 points and make this close.Even in a win, Saturday was a massive disappointment for USC. This team is really good at football, and it has the best player in college football. USC is an elite team and an elite offense because of Caleb Williams. If teams were ranked based purely on offenses, Caleb Williams and the USC Trojans belong at No. 1. Unfortunately for Williams and Lincoln Riley, this Trojans’ defense is just as bad this season as it was in 2022. USC is 63rd in scoring defense and 103rd in total yards per game - and the Trojans haven't even faced the meat of their schedule yet. That's alarming. If you can only escape Colorado with a 48-41 victory, that doesn’t bode well for your program’s chances against Notre Dame, Utah, Washington and Oregon. 10. Oklahoma  Oklahoma’s Brent Venables' team is putting up more than 47 points per game this season, while also holding opponents to under 11 points per contest. The stage is set for the Red River Rivalry. Oklahoma vs Texas, the final meeting between these two rivals in the Big 12 Conference. It’s fitting that the stakes couldn’t be higher for this game and both teams will take the field with explosive offenses. Oklahoma is 5-0, having won every game by at least 14 points. The Sooners are fresh off a 50-20 win over Iowa State, a game in which they outscored the Cyclones 29-0 over the final 2.5 quarters. Dillon Gabriel has thrown for 300-plus yards in four of the team's five games this season. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, EPL and UEFA Champions League Previews and Odds - 10/03/2023

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Oct 03, 2023

The Tuesday sports card features MLB, EPL, and UEFA Champions League action.Major League Baseball begins the postseason with four games in the wildcard round of the playoffs. The Tampa Bay Rays host the Texas Rangers on ABC-TV at 3:08 PM ET. The Rays earned the top wildcard slot in the American League with a 99-63 record. They have won four of their last five games after their 12-8 win in Toronto on Sunday. The Rangers lost three of their last four games after a 1-0 loss at Seattle on Sunday that cost them the AL West title. They settled for the second wildcard spot. Tyler Glasnow takes the ball for Tampa Bay to pitch against Jordan Montgomery for Texas. The Rays are a -155 money-line favorite, with the total set at 7.5 (all MLB odds from DraftKings). The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Toronto Blue Jays on ESPN at 4:38 PM ET. The Twins won the American League Central with an 87-75 record. They had won two games in a row before a 3-2 loss at Colorado on Sunday. The Blue Jays claimed the final wildcard in the AL with an 89-73 record. They have dropped two games in a row after their loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Minnesota taps Pablo Lopez to battle against Toronto’s Kevin Gausman. The Twins are a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers are at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks on ESPN2 at 7:08 PM ET. The Brewers won the National League Central with a 92-70 record. They have won four of their last five games after a 4-0 victory at home against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday. The Diamondbacks claimed the third and final spot in the NL wildcard race with an 84-78 record. They have lost four games in a row after an 8-1 loss to Houston on Sunday. Corbin Burnes takes the mound for Milwaukee to face Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks. The Brewers are a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins on ESPN at 8:08 PM ET. The Phillies took the top wildcard slot in the NL with a 90-72 record. They ended a three-game losing streak with a 9-1 victory in New York against the Mets on Sunday. The Marlins took the second NL wildcard spot with an 84-77 record. They were on a three-game winning streak before a 3-0 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Philadelphia sends out Zack Wheeler to pitch against Miami’s Jesus Luzardo. The Phillies are a -162 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5.Matchweek 7 in the English Premier League concludes with Burnley traveling to Luton Town at 2:30 PM ET in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM)Matchday 2 in the UEFA Champions League begins with eight group-stage matches. Two matches start at 12:45 PM ET. Union Berlin plays at home against Sporting Braga as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Real Sociedad is at RB Salzburg in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5.Six matches conclude the UCL card at 3 PM ET. Manchester United is at home against Galatasaray as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 3. Bayern Munich visits Copenhagen on the CBS Sports Network as a -2 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3.5. Arsenal is at Lens as a -1 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. PSV Eindhoven hosts Sevilla as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Real Madrid plays at Napoli in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5. Inter Milan plays at home against Benfica as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. All eight Champions League matches are available on Paramount+.

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A.L. Wildcard Projection - Blue Jays vs Twins

by ASA, Inc.

Monday, Oct 02, 2023

ASA’s A.L. MLB Series Prediction – Blue Jays vs. TwinsPICK - Toronto Blue Jays +105 to win the series We are looking at the series in the American League between the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins. The Twins won the weak A.L. Central Division, thus are the hosts in this series despite having two less wins. It is well documented how poorly the Twins have fared in the postseason with 18 straight playoff losses dating back to 2004. Toronto had a team batting average of .256 which was slightly better than the Twins .243 and also owned a better on base percentage. Minnesota had the 7th best overall run differential in the league at +119, Toronto was 13th at +75. The Blue Jays averaged 8.79 hits per game while the Twins averaged 8.24. Minnesota struck out on average 10.21 times per game, while the Blue Jays averaged just 8.04 K’s per game. You can make a case the Blue Jays have the better overall pitching in this series too with a slight edge in team ERA at 3.77 versus 3.85 for Minnesota. Both teams are very close in strikeouts per game as the Twins ranked 1st in the Bigs, the Jays finished 3rd. Toronto had the stronger bullpen which owned a 3.68 ERA compared to the Twins 3.95 ERA. Minnesota was 47-34 SU at home this season with an average run differential of plus +0.7 per game, but the Blue Jays were 46-35 SU on the road with an average +/- of +0.8 runs p/game. The pressure is clearly on the young Twins and if they lose Game 1 it will be tough to recover. The Blue Jays have veteran Kevin Gausman on the mound in Game 1 and the Jays have won 4 of his last six starts. In Gausman’s last two starts he hasn’t allowed an earned run in 13 innings of work. Lopez didn’t finish the season strong with 18 hits allowed, 11 earned runs in just 15.1 innings in his last three starts. We won’t be surprised when the Blue Jays steal this series.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL and EPL Previews and Odds - 10/02/2023

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Oct 02, 2023

The Monday sports card features NFL and EPL action.Week 4 in the NFL concludes with the Seattle Seahawks playing on the road against the New York Giants on ABC, ESPN, and the ESPN2 Manningcast. The Seahawks have won two games in a row after their 37-27 victory against Carolina as a 4.5-point favorite last Sunday. Seattle opened their season with a 30-13 loss at home against the Los Angeles Rams before beating Detroit on the road, 37-31. Their 2-1 record has them currently in second place in the NFL West behind the now 4-0 San Francisco 49ers. The Seahawks only have one giveaway this season, but they are last in the NFL in third-down defense. Head coach Pete Carroll has a 5-0 record with Seattle at MetLife Field, including their Super Bowl victory against the Denver Broncos in 2014. He does get safety Jamal Adams back for this game.The Giants come off a 30-12 loss at San Francisco as a 10.5-point underdog back on September 21st in the Thursday Night Football game for the third week of the season. New York opened the season with a 40-0 loss at home against Dallas on Sunday Night Football before rebounding with a 31-28 win at Arizona despite trailing by a 20-0 deficit. New York returns to Monday Night Football having lost their last seven games in this spot. Running back Saquon Barkley is listed as doubtful for this game with his ankle injury. The Giants have revenge on their minds after in Seattle, 27-13, as a 3-point underdog on October 30th. Seattle is a 1.5-point road favorite at DraftKings, with the total set at 42.5. Matchweek 7 in the English Premier League concludes with Chelsea playing at Fulham on the USA Network at 3 PM ET. The Blues are winless in their last three matches after a 1-0 loss at home to Aston Villa last Sunday. Their 0-0 draw at home at Bournemouth on September 17th is their only result in their last three contests. Chelsea opened their season 1-1 draw with Liverpool before losing 3-1 at West Ham United. Their lone victory this season was a 3-1 win at home against Luton Town before they lost at home to Nottingham Forest by a 1-0 score. With only five points this season, they rank 15th in the EPL standings. Fulham comes off a 0-0 draw at Crystal Palace last Saturday. The Cottagers have eight points this season from two wins and two drs in their six matches. Fulham opened their season with a 1-0 win at Everton before a 3-0 loss at home to Brentford. They went on the road to earn a 2-2 draw at Arsenal. They then lost on the road at Manchester City, 5-1, before beating Luton Town at home, 1-0, before their scoreless draw with Crystal Palace last week. Their eight points put them in a tie for 11th place in the EPL standings. Chelsea is a -0.5 goal-line road favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 10/01/2023

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Oct 01, 2023

The Sunday sports card features NFL, MLB, and EPL action.Week 4 in the NFL continues with 14 games. The Jacksonville Jaguars face the Atlanta Falcons in Wembley Stadium in London on ESPN+ at 9:30 AM ET as a 3-point favorite, with the total set at 42.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Nine NFL games kick off at 1 PM ET. The Los Angeles Rams play in Indianapolis against the Colts as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 45.5. The Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 43. The Denver Broncos travel to Chicago to play the Bears as a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 46.5. The New Orleans Saints play at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 40. The Cleveland Browns are at home against the Baltimore Ravens as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 38.5. The Minnesota Vikings play at Carolina against the Panthers as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 46.5. The Pittsburgh Steelers are in Houston to play the Texans as a 3-point road favorite, with an over/under of 41.5. The Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 53.5. The Cincinnati Bengals visit Tennessee to play the Titans at 1 PM ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 41.5. The Los Angeles Chargers play at home against the Las Vegas Raiders at 4:05 PM ET as a 6-point favorite with a total of 48. Two more NFL games start at 4:25 PM ET. The San Francisco 49ers are at home against the Arizona Cardinals as a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 43.5. The Dallas Cowboys host the New England Patriots as a 6-point favorite with a total of 43.5. Sunday Night Football on NBC features the Kansas City Chiefs playing in New York against the Jets at 8:20 PM ET. The Chiefs are a 9.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 41.5.  Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule in the final game of the regular season. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 3:05 PM ET. The Boston Red Sox travel to Baltimore to play the Orioles. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in San Francisco against the Giants as a -180 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Miami Marlins are in Pittsburgh to play the Pirates. Two MLB games start at 3:07 PM ET. The Oakland A’s play in Los Angeles against the Angels. The Tampa Bay Rays are in Toronto against the Blue Jays. Nine MLB games begin at 3:10 PM ET. The Detroit Tigers host the Cleveland Guardians as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros visit Arizona to play the Diamondbacks. The Texas Rangers play in Seattle against the Mariners. The Philadelphia Phillies are in New York to play the Mets. The San Diego Padres travel to Chicago to play the White Sox. The New York Yankees play the Kansas City Royals as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Minnesota Twins are in Milwaukee against the Brewers as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 3:10 PM ET. The Chicago Cubs play in Milwaukee against the Brewers as a -112 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves host the Washington Nationals. The Cincinnati Reds play in St. Louis against the Cardinals at 3:15 PM ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Matchweek 7 in the English Premier League continues with one match. Nottingham Forest plays at home against Brentford on the USA Network in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5. 

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